Team Projections: Denver Broncos (1 Viewer)

[Unlucky]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Broncos' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/den.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Cutler: 284/464/61.2% for 3427/20 and 26/39/1 rushing

T. Henry: 328/1460/14 and 21/137/0

M. Bell: 122/537/4 and 25/193/0

J. Walker: 73/1095/9

Analysis:

The Denver offense had a down year last year, but I expect a rebound this season. I love Travis Henry. I used to hate him, but he showed last year that he does have talent. He's in a great situation; he's clearly better than Mike Bell, so Henry will get the bulk of the work.

Cutler will be good, but his overall fantasy numbers probably won't be huge because the receiving corp is Javon Walker and a bunch of junk. Smith is old, Marshall is young and unproven, Stokely is overrated, and Graham isn't anything special. I just don't see enough passing opportunity for Cutler to be great. Walker's numbers took a hit last year with Cutler, but that is more due to Cutler's inexperience. Walker will be solid again this year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Tony Scheffler had 4 TD in 5 games with Cutler . . . but he'll have only 1 TD the entire season this time around? Not saying you're wrong, but he was Cutler's favorite target.

 

[TaxMan]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Broncos' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/den.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Cutler: 284/464/61.2% for 3427/20 and 26/39/1 rushing

T. Henry: 328/1460/14 and 21/137/0

M. Bell: 122/537/4 and 25/193/0

J. Walker: 73/1095/9

Analysis:

The Denver offense had a down year last year, but I expect a rebound this season. I love Travis Henry. I used to hate him, but he showed last year that he does have talent. He's in a great situation; he's clearly better than Mike Bell, so Henry will get the bulk of the work.

Cutler will be good, but his overall fantasy numbers probably won't be huge because the receiving corp is Javon Walker and a bunch of junk. Smith is old, Marshall is young and unproven, Stokely is overrated, and Graham isn't anything special. I just don't see enough passing opportunity for Cutler to be great. Walker's numbers took a hit last year with Cutler, but that is more due to Cutler's inexperience. Walker will be solid again this year.

73/1095/9 for Javon Walker is not solid to me. Those numbers would lean on the disappointment side.

 

[Sultans]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Broncos' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/den.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Cutler: 284/464/61.2% for 3427/20 and 26/39/1 rushing

T. Henry: 328/1460/14 and 21/137/0

M. Bell: 122/537/4 and 25/193/0

J. Walker: 73/1095/9

Analysis:

The Denver offense had a down year last year, but I expect a rebound this season. I love Travis Henry. I used to hate him, but he showed last year that he does have talent. He's in a great situation; he's clearly better than Mike Bell, so Henry will get the bulk of the work.

Cutler will be good, but his overall fantasy numbers probably won't be huge because the receiving corp is Javon Walker and a bunch of junk. Smith is old, Marshall is young and unproven, Stokely is overrated, and Graham isn't anything special. I just don't see enough passing opportunity for Cutler to be great. Walker's numbers took a hit last year with Cutler, but that is more due to Cutler's inexperience. Walker will be solid again this year.

73/1095/9 for Javon Walker is not solid to me. Those numbers would lean on the disappointment side.

I agree. I think Javon Walker showed that tales of his demise were greatly exaggerated. I for one am huge on him. If Cutler and Javon continue to develop chemistry I think you have a possible TOP 10 finish which you can get late 4th round. I think we all can agree that his talent is certainly among the elite. I am thinking 88 for 1300 and 12 TD's.

 

[Unlucky]

Tony Scheffler had 4 TD in 5 games with Cutler . . . but he'll have only 1 TD the entire season this time around? Not saying you're wrong, but he was Cutler's favorite target.

You are probably correct. My TE TDs is low on the whole. Thanks for the feedback.As for Walker, he had 69 catches last year, his career high is 89, so projecting 88 seems a bit optimistic. Even with few other receiving threats last season, he didn't crack 70 catches.

 

[SSOG]

Any particular reason why you're projecting Denver to post its lowest rushing yardage totals and rushing ypc since 2001, and the second lowest value in either category of Shanahan's entire tenure? I thought you said you were high on Henry and Denver's rushing game.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Broncos' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/den.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Cutler: 284/464/61.2% for 3427/20 and 26/39/1 rushing

T. Henry: 328/1460/14 and 21/137/0

M. Bell: 122/537/4 and 25/193/0

J. Walker: 73/1095/9

Analysis:

The Denver offense had a down year last year, but I expect a rebound this season. I love Travis Henry. I used to hate him, but he showed last year that he does have talent. He's in a great situation; he's clearly better than Mike Bell, so Henry will get the bulk of the work.

Cutler will be good, but his overall fantasy numbers probably won't be huge because the receiving corp is Javon Walker and a bunch of junk. Smith is old, Marshall is young and unproven, Stokely is overrated, and Graham isn't anything special. I just don't see enough passing opportunity for Cutler to be great. Walker's numbers took a hit last year with Cutler, but that is more due to Cutler's inexperience. Walker will be solid again this year.

73/1095/9 for Javon Walker is not solid to me. Those numbers would lean on the disappointment side.

I agree. I think Javon Walker showed that tales of his demise were greatly exaggerated. I for one am huge on him. If Cutler and Javon continue to develop chemistry I think you have a possible TOP 10 finish which you can get late 4th round. I think we all can agree that his talent is certainly among the elite. I am thinking 88 for 1300 and 12 TD's.

You do realize the stats you mention above would've placed Javon as WR2 last year?

 

[SSOG]

You do realize the stats you mention above would've placed Javon as WR2 last year?

He was WR2 in 2004 and WR9 in 2006, so it's not like that's entirely outside the realm of possibility. In his last two full seasons, he put up 1207/9 and 1382/12, and the 1207/9 season came despite being one year removed from an ACL injury (historically an injury that takes 2 years to fully recover from) and despite changing teams in the offseason (something which has historically resulted in a significant decline in production).I agree that the numbers are definitely on the high side, but I don't think they are unreasonably so. Javon Walker was 2nd in the league in terms of points per target last year, behind only Marvin Harrison. Assuming even a modest increase in number of targets (not an unreasonable assumption, since Javon Walker finished 20th in the league in targets, behind guys like Isaac Bruce, Mike Furrey, Chris Chambers, and the immortal Jerricho Cotchery), a corresponding increase in production would be a pretty safe bet.

 

[jerseyh8r]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Broncos' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/den.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Cutler: 284/464/61.2% for 3427/20 and 26/39/1 rushing

T. Henry: 328/1460/14 and 21/137/0

M. Bell: 122/537/4 and 25/193/0

J. Walker: 73/1095/9

Analysis:

The Denver offense had a down year last year, but I expect a rebound this season. I love Travis Henry. I used to hate him, but he showed last year that he does have talent. He's in a great situation; he's clearly better than Mike Bell, so Henry will get the bulk of the work.

Cutler will be good, but his overall fantasy numbers probably won't be huge because the receiving corp is Javon Walker and a bunch of junk. Smith is old, Marshall is young and unproven, Stokely is overrated, and Graham isn't anything special. I just don't see enough passing opportunity for Cutler to be great. Walker's numbers took a hit last year with Cutler, but that is more due to Cutler's inexperience. Walker will be solid again this year.

73/1095/9 for Javon Walker is not solid to me. Those numbers would lean on the disappointment side.

I think moving beyond Unlucky's numbers is unrealistic, actually.**Assume Denver has 1000 offensive plays (rush+pass atts)...that would be more 65+ more than last season. I am willing to go that high only b/c they were near 1000 the 3 years previous to '06.

**In the last 4 seasons, Shanny has not thrown more than he has ran....the highest ratio has been 50/50. They just signed Henry and plan to utilize him, for the sake of this conversation, I will go 50/50, but that is a stretch.

**Last season, Walker received 27% of the teams targets, 25% with Cutler in the game. He caught 55% of the balls thrown his way for the season, but only 51% of the targets with Cutler in the game. His yard/rec dropped from >15 to 12 yards per when Cutler was in the game.

Ok...so Cutler's real playing time is an admittedly small sample. But let's say for the sake of argument, Denver has 65 more plays than last season and throws the ball as much as they ever have in the previous 4 seasons (despite the arrival of Henry). Then, lets give Walker small upticks from his "percentage" numbers with Cutler last season (26% targeted from 25%, 54% caught from 51%), and we actually give him a full 16 ypc (3 more than what he had with Cutler last season)....you are only looking at 70-1123-XTDs (9-10 TDs seems reasonable to me with 70 recs). This seems to be ceiling for the '07 season, IMO.

If you don't like the numbers, I am curious as to what you would increase to yield better results.

 

[Bri]

I like that page's presentation there Unlucky. Neat and orderly ....nice look.

 

[Bri]

Tony Scheffler had 4 TD in 5 games with Cutler . . . but he'll have only 1 TD the entire season this time around? Not saying you're wrong, but he was Cutler's favorite target.

FWIW I don't think anyone has a clue(including Shanny) just how Graham will do in the passing game

 

[moleculo]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Broncos' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/den.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Cutler: 284/464/61.2% for 3427/20 and 26/39/1 rushing

T. Henry: 328/1460/14 and 21/137/0

M. Bell: 122/537/4 and 25/193/0

J. Walker: 73/1095/9

Analysis:

The Denver offense had a down year last year, but I expect a rebound this season. I love Travis Henry. I used to hate him, but he showed last year that he does have talent. He's in a great situation; he's clearly better than Mike Bell, so Henry will get the bulk of the work.

Cutler will be good, but his overall fantasy numbers probably won't be huge because the receiving corp is Javon Walker and a bunch of junk. Smith is old, Marshall is young and unproven, Stokely is overrated, and Graham isn't anything special. I just don't see enough passing opportunity for Cutler to be great. Walker's numbers took a hit last year with Cutler, but that is more due to Cutler's inexperience. Walker will be solid again this year.

73/1095/9 for Javon Walker is not solid to me. Those numbers would lean on the disappointment side.

I think moving beyond Unlucky's numbers is unrealistic, actually.**Assume Denver has 1000 offensive plays (rush+pass atts)...that would be more 65+ more than last season. I am willing to go that high only b/c they were near 1000 the 3 years previous to '06.

**In the last 4 seasons, Shanny has not thrown more than he has ran....the highest ratio has been 50/50. They just signed Henry and plan to utilize him, for the sake of this conversation, I will go 50/50, but that is a stretch.

**Last season, Walker received 27% of the teams targets, 25% with Cutler in the game. He caught 55% of the balls thrown his way for the season, but only 51% of the targets with Cutler in the game. His yard/rec dropped from >15 to 12 yards per when Cutler was in the game.

Ok...so Cutler's real playing time is an admittedly small sample. But let's say for the sake of argument, Denver has 65 more plays than last season and throws the ball as much as they ever have in the previous 4 seasons (despite the arrival of Henry). Then, lets give Walker small upticks from his "percentage" numbers with Cutler last season (26% targeted from 25%, 54% caught from 51%), and we actually give him a full 16 ypc (3 more than what he had with Cutler last season)....you are only looking at 70-1123-XTDs (9-10 TDs seems reasonable to me with 70 recs). This seems to be ceiling for the '07 season, IMO.

If you don't like the numbers, I am curious as to what you would increase to yield better results.

why would you use Walkers #'s w/ a rookie @ QB as the basis for projections? I think more accurate projections would come from Walkers playing time w/ Plummer - the vet should know how to get the ball down field than the rookie.

 

[jerseyh8r]

I think moving beyond Unlucky's numbers is unrealistic, actually.

**Assume Denver has 1000 offensive plays (rush+pass atts)...that would be more 65+ more than last season. I am willing to go that high only b/c they were near 1000 the 3 years previous to '06.

**In the last 4 seasons, Shanny has not thrown more than he has ran....the highest ratio has been 50/50. They just signed Henry and plan to utilize him, for the sake of this conversation, I will go 50/50, but that is a stretch.

**Last season, Walker received 27% of the teams targets, 25% with Cutler in the game. He caught 55% of the balls thrown his way for the season, but only 51% of the targets with Cutler in the game. His yard/rec dropped from >15 to 12 yards per when Cutler was in the game.

Ok...so Cutler's real playing time is an admittedly small sample. But let's say for the sake of argument, Denver has 65 more plays than last season and throws the ball as much as they ever have in the previous 4 seasons (despite the arrival of Henry). Then, lets give Walker small upticks from his "percentage" numbers with Cutler last season (26% targeted from 25%, 54% caught from 51%), and we actually give him a full 16 ypc (3 more than what he had with Cutler last season)....you are only looking at 70-1123-XTDs (9-10 TDs seems reasonable to me with 70 recs). This seems to be ceiling for the '07 season, IMO.

If you don't like the numbers, I am curious as to what you would increase to yield better results.

why would you use Walkers #'s w/ a rookie @ QB as the basis for projections? I think more accurate projections would come from Walkers playing time w/ Plummer - the vet should know how to get the ball down field than the rookie.

I am confused by your question....I looked at his performance with the QB who he will be playing with THIS season, and I looked at Shanny's system historically (pass v. rush). Cutler played only 5 games last season, so he still has 11 more games yet to play before he has played a full season in the NFL. I moved Walker's numbers up some from where they were the last 5 games of the season (with Cutler) and still only came up with 70-1120. Why would I use his history with Plummer when I have a sample to look at with Cutler (which also takes into account the emergence of Scheffler, BTW)??

 

[moleculo]

I think moving beyond Unlucky's numbers is unrealistic, actually.

**Assume Denver has 1000 offensive plays (rush+pass atts)...that would be more 65+ more than last season. I am willing to go that high only b/c they were near 1000 the 3 years previous to '06.

**In the last 4 seasons, Shanny has not thrown more than he has ran....the highest ratio has been 50/50. They just signed Henry and plan to utilize him, for the sake of this conversation, I will go 50/50, but that is a stretch.

**Last season, Walker received 27% of the teams targets, 25% with Cutler in the game. He caught 55% of the balls thrown his way for the season, but only 51% of the targets with Cutler in the game. His yard/rec dropped from >15 to 12 yards per when Cutler was in the game.

Ok...so Cutler's real playing time is an admittedly small sample. But let's say for the sake of argument, Denver has 65 more plays than last season and throws the ball as much as they ever have in the previous 4 seasons (despite the arrival of Henry). Then, lets give Walker small upticks from his "percentage" numbers with Cutler last season (26% targeted from 25%, 54% caught from 51%), and we actually give him a full 16 ypc (3 more than what he had with Cutler last season)....you are only looking at 70-1123-XTDs (9-10 TDs seems reasonable to me with 70 recs). This seems to be ceiling for the '07 season, IMO.

If you don't like the numbers, I am curious as to what you would increase to yield better results.

why would you use Walkers #'s w/ a rookie @ QB as the basis for projections? I think more accurate projections would come from Walkers playing time w/ Plummer - the vet should know how to get the ball down field than the rookie.

I am confused by your question....I looked at his performance with the QB who he will be playing with THIS season, and I looked at Shanny's system historically (pass v. rush). Cutler played only 5 games last season, so he still has 11 more games yet to play before he has played a full season in the NFL. I moved Walker's numbers up some from where they were the last 5 games of the season (with Cutler) and still only came up with 70-1120. Why would I use his history with Plummer when I have a sample to look at with Cutler (which also takes into account the emergence of Scheffler, BTW)??

It is not written that "Javon Walkers numbers shall be ## with Cutler". This is not sound logic. What is logical is that a rookie QB will throw more to his TE than to the WR, and a WR's numbers are likely to be less with a rookie QB than with a vet. IMO, the drop in Walkers production last year was caused by the transition from a vet QB to a rookie QB - not Plummer transitioning to Cutler.I'll Grant you that Cutler has only started 5 games. but, this season he is seeing 100% of first team snaps in all voluntary workouts and training camp. He is entering this season with NFL experience. He will have an offense installed from day one that emphasizes his strengths. Cutler 2007 will not be Cutler 2006, and I think it foolish to assume his pass distribution for this upcoming season will reflect last season.

ETA: last year I stated that Denver would pass more in 2006 than they have in recent years, and I think they will stay at about the same run/pass ratio in 2007 as they did in 2006. I'm seeing a clear trend towards a balanced attack based on personnel acquisitions over the past couple of years. In the SB years when Shanahans offense was clicking to perfection & TD ran for 2k yards, they were about 50/50 run/pass - that is what this offense needs to operate @ 100%.

 

[Banger]

I think moving beyond Unlucky's numbers is unrealistic, actually.

**Assume Denver has 1000 offensive plays (rush+pass atts)...that would be more 65+ more than last season. I am willing to go that high only b/c they were near 1000 the 3 years previous to '06.

**In the last 4 seasons, Shanny has not thrown more than he has ran....the highest ratio has been 50/50. They just signed Henry and plan to utilize him, for the sake of this conversation, I will go 50/50, but that is a stretch.

**Last season, Walker received 27% of the teams targets, 25% with Cutler in the game. He caught 55% of the balls thrown his way for the season, but only 51% of the targets with Cutler in the game. His yard/rec dropped from >15 to 12 yards per when Cutler was in the game.

Ok...so Cutler's real playing time is an admittedly small sample. But let's say for the sake of argument, Denver has 65 more plays than last season and throws the ball as much as they ever have in the previous 4 seasons (despite the arrival of Henry). Then, lets give Walker small upticks from his "percentage" numbers with Cutler last season (26% targeted from 25%, 54% caught from 51%), and we actually give him a full 16 ypc (3 more than what he had with Cutler last season)....you are only looking at 70-1123-XTDs (9-10 TDs seems reasonable to me with 70 recs). This seems to be ceiling for the '07 season, IMO.

If you don't like the numbers, I am curious as to what you would increase to yield better results.

why would you use Walkers #'s w/ a rookie @ QB as the basis for projections? I think more accurate projections would come from Walkers playing time w/ Plummer - the vet should know how to get the ball down field than the rookie.

I am confused by your question....I looked at his performance with the QB who he will be playing with THIS season, and I looked at Shanny's system historically (pass v. rush). Cutler played only 5 games last season, so he still has 11 more games yet to play before he has played a full season in the NFL. I moved Walker's numbers up some from where they were the last 5 games of the season (with Cutler) and still only came up with 70-1120. Why would I use his history with Plummer when I have a sample to look at with Cutler (which also takes into account the emergence of Scheffler, BTW)??

It is not written that "Javon Walkers numbers shall be ## with Cutler". This is not sound logic. What is logical is that a rookie QB will throw more to his TE than to the WR, and a WR's numbers are likely to be less with a rookie QB than with a vet. IMO, the drop in Walkers production last year was caused by the transition from a vet QB to a rookie QB - not Plummer transitioning to Cutler.I'll Grant you that Cutler has only started 5 games. but, this season he is seeing 100% of first team snaps in all voluntary workouts and training camp. He is entering this season with NFL experience. He will have an offense installed from day one that emphasizes his strengths. Cutler 2007 will not be Cutler 2006, and I think it foolish to assume his pass distribution for this upcoming season will reflect last season.

ETA: last year I stated that Denver would pass more in 2006 than they have in recent years, and I think they will stay at about the same run/pass ratio in 2007 as they did in 2006. I'm seeing a clear trend towards a balanced attack based on personnel acquisitions over the past couple of years. In the SB years when Shanahans offense was clicking to perfection & TD ran for 2k yards, they were about 50/50 run/pass - that is what this offense needs to operate @ 100%.

I wrote this a week or so ago in a related thread....Since when is a 5 game sample with a rookie QB a significant indicator of anything? Look at Ron Dayne's last 5 games last year. If people are discounting Walker based on the 5 game sample size I would imagine that Scheffler s/b the #1/2 TE this year since he's good for 700 yards and 12-13 tds.

At the end of the day Walker/Cutler will be one of the best big play hookups in the game. Both of their strengths match each other perfectly, Javon being a big play deep threat and Cutler having one of the best guns in the game and Shanny is smart enough to gameplan/exploit it. Sometimes you have to put the stats away and watch the games.

 

[Sultans]

I think moving beyond Unlucky's numbers is unrealistic, actually.

**Assume Denver has 1000 offensive plays (rush+pass atts)...that would be more 65+ more than last season. I am willing to go that high only b/c they were near 1000 the 3 years previous to '06.

**In the last 4 seasons, Shanny has not thrown more than he has ran....the highest ratio has been 50/50. They just signed Henry and plan to utilize him, for the sake of this conversation, I will go 50/50, but that is a stretch.

**Last season, Walker received 27% of the teams targets, 25% with Cutler in the game. He caught 55% of the balls thrown his way for the season, but only 51% of the targets with Cutler in the game. His yard/rec dropped from >15 to 12 yards per when Cutler was in the game.

Ok...so Cutler's real playing time is an admittedly small sample. But let's say for the sake of argument, Denver has 65 more plays than last season and throws the ball as much as they ever have in the previous 4 seasons (despite the arrival of Henry). Then, lets give Walker small upticks from his "percentage" numbers with Cutler last season (26% targeted from 25%, 54% caught from 51%), and we actually give him a full 16 ypc (3 more than what he had with Cutler last season)....you are only looking at 70-1123-XTDs (9-10 TDs seems reasonable to me with 70 recs). This seems to be ceiling for the '07 season, IMO.

If you don't like the numbers, I am curious as to what you would increase to yield better results.

why would you use Walkers #'s w/ a rookie @ QB as the basis for projections? I think more accurate projections would come from Walkers playing time w/ Plummer - the vet should know how to get the ball down field than the rookie.

I am confused by your question....I looked at his performance with the QB who he will be playing with THIS season, and I looked at Shanny's system historically (pass v. rush). Cutler played only 5 games last season, so he still has 11 more games yet to play before he has played a full season in the NFL. I moved Walker's numbers up some from where they were the last 5 games of the season (with Cutler) and still only came up with 70-1120. Why would I use his history with Plummer when I have a sample to look at with Cutler (which also takes into account the emergence of Scheffler, BTW)??

It is not written that "Javon Walkers numbers shall be ## with Cutler". This is not sound logic. What is logical is that a rookie QB will throw more to his TE than to the WR, and a WR's numbers are likely to be less with a rookie QB than with a vet. IMO, the drop in Walkers production last year was caused by the transition from a vet QB to a rookie QB - not Plummer transitioning to Cutler.I'll Grant you that Cutler has only started 5 games. but, this season he is seeing 100% of first team snaps in all voluntary workouts and training camp. He is entering this season with NFL experience. He will have an offense installed from day one that emphasizes his strengths. Cutler 2007 will not be Cutler 2006, and I think it foolish to assume his pass distribution for this upcoming season will reflect last season.

ETA: last year I stated that Denver would pass more in 2006 than they have in recent years, and I think they will stay at about the same run/pass ratio in 2007 as they did in 2006. I'm seeing a clear trend towards a balanced attack based on personnel acquisitions over the past couple of years. In the SB years when Shanahans offense was clicking to perfection & TD ran for 2k yards, they were about 50/50 run/pass - that is what this offense needs to operate @ 100%.

I wrote this a week or so ago in a related thread....Since when is a 5 game sample with a rookie QB a significant indicator of anything? Look at Ron Dayne's last 5 games last year. If people are discounting Walker based on the 5 game sample size I would imagine that Scheffler s/b the #1/2 TE this year since he's good for 700 yards and 12-13 tds.

At the end of the day Walker/Cutler will be one of the best big play hookups in the game. Both of their strengths match each other perfectly, Javon being a big play deep threat and Cutler having one of the best guns in the game and Shanny is smart enough to gameplan/exploit it. Sometimes you have to put the stats away and watch the games.

Thanks for the back up banger, Rod Smith has produced some monster numbers in this offense. I feel that Javon Walker is TALENTED enough to finish 2nd. I am not going to take him till round 4. Cutler has a cannon. I am not a Denver fan either. Just watch Javon on the field. He is awesome.

 

[Unlucky]

Any particular reason why you're projecting Denver to post its lowest rushing yardage totals and rushing ypc since 2001, and the second lowest value in either category of Shanahan's entire tenure? I thought you said you were high on Henry and Denver's rushing game.

I think the QB rushing numbers are what contributes to the team lacking in rushing. Elway and Plummer were both scramblers that would put up a few hundred yards rushing with a good YPC. I don't see Cutler putting up anything rushing, in fact his low YPC will hurt the team's overall numbers.

 

[Warpig]

T. Henry: 328/1460/14 and 21/137/0M. Bell: 122/537/4 and 25/193/0

Mike Bell may well serve as more of a goalline presence since he was pretty good at it last year. I'd say the TD's are too high for Henry and too low for Scheffler.just my

 

[jerseyh8r]

Thanks for the back up banger, Rod Smith has produced some monster numbers in this offense. I feel that Javon Walker is TALENTED enough to finish 2nd. I am not going to take him till round 4. Cutler has a cannon. I am not a Denver fan either. Just watch Javon on the field. He is awesome.

I would never argue that Walker doesn't have the talent to be the WR2 in a fantasy league....but....to move Walker into the 88-1300 range he needs a 63% catch rate getting 27% of the team targets and 15 ypc (assuming 1000 plays, 65 more than last season--50/50 rush/pass). FYI, 27% team targets is the highest target percentage in the last 6 seasons for any Denver WR. If you are comfortable with those numbers, a higher target rate, a more highly skewed pass/rush ratio, or more offensive plays (or any combo therein)....cool. I just don't see opportunity for him to come up with the numbers you are hoping for. Not saying that it is impossible, I just don't think it is as likely as you do. Only time will tell....but our strategies are similar, I agree that the 4th is the right round for him. It just seems that you expect him to exceed his draft position, I don't is all. I would still be happy with a 4th round WR getting 70+ recs and nearly 1200 yds with 9-10 TDs...in a PPR league though, the additional 18 recs, 200 yds and 2-3 TDs that you expect make a big difference when tiering your players.

 

[Sultans]

Thanks for the back up banger, Rod Smith has produced some monster numbers in this offense. I feel that Javon Walker is TALENTED enough to finish 2nd. I am not going to take him till round 4. Cutler has a cannon. I am not a Denver fan either. Just watch Javon on the field. He is awesome.

I would never argue that Walker doesn't have the talent to be the WR2 in a fantasy league....but....to move Walker into the 88-1300 range he needs a 63% catch rate getting 27% of the team targets and 15 ypc (assuming 1000 plays, 65 more than last season--50/50 rush/pass). FYI, 27% team targets is the highest target percentage in the last 6 seasons for any Denver WR. If you are comfortable with those numbers, a higher target rate, a more highly skewed pass/rush ratio, or more offensive plays (or any combo therein)....cool. I just don't see opportunity for him to come up with the numbers you are hoping for. Not saying that it is impossible, I just don't think it is as likely as you do. Only time will tell....but our strategies are similar, I agree that the 4th is the right round for him. It just seems that you expect him to exceed his draft position, I don't is all. I would still be happy with a 4th round WR getting 70+ recs and nearly 1200 yds with 9-10 TDs...in a PPR league though, the additional 18 recs, 200 yds and 2-3 TDs that you expect make a big difference when tiering your players.

Was Shanny the coach when Rod Smith had 100 and 113 Catches and 1602 and 1343 yards in a season? I wonder what his Catch Rate and Target rate were? I appreciate the empirical evidence. Sometimes you just need to go with your gut as well. If Cutler becomes the real deal. He is going to figure out real quick what a Force Javon is on the field. His physicality as a receiver is rivaled only by Owens and the AZ boys. His first season as a starter he had 88 for 1392. I was skeptical of him last year after the knee surgery, but he looked healthly and had some huge games with Plummer ( Terrible). Cutler has the ability to maximize Walker's talents. Did I mention I love Javon Walker this year? lol

 

[SSOG]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Broncos' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/den.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Cutler: 284/464/61.2% for 3427/20 and 26/39/1 rushing

T. Henry: 328/1460/14 and 21/137/0

M. Bell: 122/537/4 and 25/193/0

J. Walker: 73/1095/9

Analysis:

The Denver offense had a down year last year, but I expect a rebound this season. I love Travis Henry. I used to hate him, but he showed last year that he does have talent. He's in a great situation; he's clearly better than Mike Bell, so Henry will get the bulk of the work.

Cutler will be good, but his overall fantasy numbers probably won't be huge because the receiving corp is Javon Walker and a bunch of junk. Smith is old, Marshall is young and unproven, Stokely is overrated, and Graham isn't anything special. I just don't see enough passing opportunity for Cutler to be great. Walker's numbers took a hit last year with Cutler, but that is more due to Cutler's inexperience. Walker will be solid again this year.

73/1095/9 for Javon Walker is not solid to me. Those numbers would lean on the disappointment side.

I think moving beyond Unlucky's numbers is unrealistic, actually.**Assume Denver has 1000 offensive plays (rush+pass atts)...that would be more 65+ more than last season. I am willing to go that high only b/c they were near 1000 the 3 years previous to '06.

**In the last 4 seasons, Shanny has not thrown more than he has ran....the highest ratio has been 50/50. They just signed Henry and plan to utilize him, for the sake of this conversation, I will go 50/50, but that is a stretch.

**Last season, Walker received 27% of the teams targets, 25% with Cutler in the game. He caught 55% of the balls thrown his way for the season, but only 51% of the targets with Cutler in the game. His yard/rec dropped from >15 to 12 yards per when Cutler was in the game.

Ok...so Cutler's real playing time is an admittedly small sample. But let's say for the sake of argument, Denver has 65 more plays than last season and throws the ball as much as they ever have in the previous 4 seasons (despite the arrival of Henry). Then, lets give Walker small upticks from his "percentage" numbers with Cutler last season (26% targeted from 25%, 54% caught from 51%), and we actually give him a full 16 ypc (3 more than what he had with Cutler last season)....you are only looking at 70-1123-XTDs (9-10 TDs seems reasonable to me with 70 recs). This seems to be ceiling for the '07 season, IMO.

If you don't like the numbers, I am curious as to what you would increase to yield better results.

Rod Smith, between 1998 and 2005, broke 80 receptions 5 times in 8 years, and had two more years at 79 receptions. Two of those years, he went over 100 catches. His LOWEST during that span, in the one year that he didn't get 79+ catches, was 74. That strong and incontrovertible historical data certainly contradicts your assertion that 70 receptions seems to be Walker's ceiling. I mean, by the very definition of the word ceiling, it shouldn't be the second lowest reception total in more than a decade for Denver's WR1. That's more of a FLOOR projection than a CEILING projection. Personally, I'd put Walker's realistic ceiling closer to 90 touches @ 15 yards per (1350 yards) for 12 or so TDs. That's just based on Javon Walker's historical numbers and Denver's historical WR1 numbers.Also, remember everyone that I'm talking about TOUCHES here. Javon Walker got 9 carries last year and was productive with them. I expect him to get a half-dozen or so carries again this year.

Any particular reason why you're projecting Denver to post its lowest rushing yardage totals and rushing ypc since 2001, and the second lowest value in either category of Shanahan's entire tenure? I thought you said you were high on Henry and Denver's rushing game.

I think the QB rushing numbers are what contributes to the team lacking in rushing. Elway and Plummer were both scramblers that would put up a few hundred yards rushing with a good YPC. I don't see Cutler putting up anything rushing, in fact his low YPC will hurt the team's overall numbers.

That's a pretty solid reason, although I'd like to remind that Cutler certainly isn't going to be any less mobile than Brian Griese.

 

[Despyzer]

I honestly believed that the Broncos were the best team in the league at the start of last season, and I have a hard time believing they are any worse than the top 5 this year. Too bad they play in the same conference as the other four.

 

[jerseyh8r]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Broncos' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/den.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Cutler: 284/464/61.2% for 3427/20 and 26/39/1 rushing

T. Henry: 328/1460/14 and 21/137/0

M. Bell: 122/537/4 and 25/193/0

J. Walker: 73/1095/9

Analysis:

The Denver offense had a down year last year, but I expect a rebound this season. I love Travis Henry. I used to hate him, but he showed last year that he does have talent. He's in a great situation; he's clearly better than Mike Bell, so Henry will get the bulk of the work.

Cutler will be good, but his overall fantasy numbers probably won't be huge because the receiving corp is Javon Walker and a bunch of junk. Smith is old, Marshall is young and unproven, Stokely is overrated, and Graham isn't anything special. I just don't see enough passing opportunity for Cutler to be great. Walker's numbers took a hit last year with Cutler, but that is more due to Cutler's inexperience. Walker will be solid again this year.

73/1095/9 for Javon Walker is not solid to me. Those numbers would lean on the disappointment side.

I think moving beyond Unlucky's numbers is unrealistic, actually.**Assume Denver has 1000 offensive plays (rush+pass atts)...that would be more 65+ more than last season. I am willing to go that high only b/c they were near 1000 the 3 years previous to '06.

**In the last 4 seasons, Shanny has not thrown more than he has ran....the highest ratio has been 50/50. They just signed Henry and plan to utilize him, for the sake of this conversation, I will go 50/50, but that is a stretch.

**Last season, Walker received 27% of the teams targets, 25% with Cutler in the game. He caught 55% of the balls thrown his way for the season, but only 51% of the targets with Cutler in the game. His yard/rec dropped from >15 to 12 yards per when Cutler was in the game.

Ok...so Cutler's real playing time is an admittedly small sample. But let's say for the sake of argument, Denver has 65 more plays than last season and throws the ball as much as they ever have in the previous 4 seasons (despite the arrival of Henry). Then, lets give Walker small upticks from his "percentage" numbers with Cutler last season (26% targeted from 25%, 54% caught from 51%), and we actually give him a full 16 ypc (3 more than what he had with Cutler last season)....you are only looking at 70-1123-XTDs (9-10 TDs seems reasonable to me with 70 recs). This seems to be ceiling for the '07 season, IMO.

If you don't like the numbers, I am curious as to what you would increase to yield better results.

Rod Smith, between 1998 and 2005, broke 80 receptions 5 times in 8 years, and had two more years at 79 receptions. Two of those years, he went over 100 catches. His LOWEST during that span, in the one year that he didn't get 79+ catches, was 74. That strong and incontrovertible historical data certainly contradicts your assertion that 70 receptions seems to be Walker's ceiling. I mean, by the very definition of the word ceiling, it shouldn't be the second lowest reception total in more than a decade for Denver's WR1. That's more of a FLOOR projection than a CEILING projection. Personally, I'd put Walker's realistic ceiling closer to 90 touches @ 15 yards per (1350 yards) for 12 or so TDs. That's just based on Javon Walker's historical numbers and Denver's historical WR1 numbers.Also, remember everyone that I'm talking about TOUCHES here. Javon Walker got 9 carries last year and was productive with them. I expect him to get a half-dozen or so carries again this year.

Your points are valid and certainly need to be digested considering their strength. Not that we all have to be like minded (it would be a very boring hobby if we did), but I would still have problems projecting Walker to post early 2000 RSmith-type numbers (100+ recs or 1350+ yds), if for no other reason than Cutler has so little in-game experience. That being said, I had only been looking at the data from since 2003 (and only pass/rush ratios, target percentages) and hadn't not taken into account the last decade on the whole in Shanny's offense. There certainly was a flaw in my logic in representing my own projections of Walker as a ceiling...you have convinced me otherwise. I still think about 70-75 recs at 15 per is on target, but only time will tell. However, I do think you have convinced me to look at my own projections for Walker as less of a ceiling- so I may rank him a few spots higher within a tier based on that change of perception of his potential.As an aside...after looking back at RSmith's 2001 season, I was shocked to see this stat line of the WRs: Less of a remark about what I expect from Walker (or Shanny's play-calling), but more to illustrate how I forgot how GOOD Smith was....and this was with Griese at QB!!!

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Chris Cole		   | 16 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	9   128  14.2   0 || Kevin Kasper		 | 12 |	3	19   6.3   0  |	8	84  10.5   0 || Eddie Kennison	   |  8 |	3	 9   3.0   0  |   15   169  11.3   1 || Ed McCaffrey		 |  1 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	6	94  15.7   1 || Travis McGriff	   |  5 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	0	 0   0.0   0 || Scottie Montgomery   | 10 |	1	 5   5.0   0  |   11	99   9.0   0 || Keith Poole		  |  6 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	5	38   7.6   0 || Rod Smith			| 15 |	3	27   9.0   0  |  113  1343  11.9  11 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

Good discussion here....thanks.

 

[SSOG]

As an aside...after looking back at RSmith's 2001 season, I was shocked to see this stat line of the WRs: Less of a remark about what I expect from Walker (or Shanny's play-calling), but more to illustrate how I forgot how GOOD Smith was....and this was with Griese at QB!!!

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Chris Cole		   | 16 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	9   128  14.2   0 || Kevin Kasper		 | 12 |	3	19   6.3   0  |	8	84  10.5   0 || Eddie Kennison	   |  8 |	3	 9   3.0   0  |   15   169  11.3   1 || Ed McCaffrey		 |  1 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	6	94  15.7   1 || Travis McGriff	   |  5 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	0	 0   0.0   0 || Scottie Montgomery   | 10 |	1	 5   5.0   0  |   11	99   9.0   0 || Keith Poole		  |  6 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	5	38   7.6   0 || Rod Smith			| 15 |	3	27   9.0   0  |  113  1343  11.9  11 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

Good discussion here....thanks.

Don't forget, he only played in 15 games that year, too. 3 of Chris Cole's receptions and 4 of Scottie Montgomery's grabs came in the game that Smith missed. If he'd played in a full 16 games, he would have been the only WR in NFL history to have caught 100 more balls than his next-closest WR teammate. As it stands, I doubt any WR will ever account for a higher percentage of a team's WR catches.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Any particular reason why you're projecting Denver to post its lowest rushing yardage totals and rushing ypc since 2001, and the second lowest value in either category of Shanahan's entire tenure? I thought you said you were high on Henry and Denver's rushing game.

I think the QB rushing numbers are what contributes to the team lacking in rushing. Elway and Plummer were both scramblers that would put up a few hundred yards rushing with a good YPC. I don't see Cutler putting up anything rushing, in fact his low YPC will hurt the team's overall numbers.

Except for 2003, Plummer's YPC when scrambling was well below the team's overall YPC, so in three of his four seasons in Denver, his YPC actually hurt the team's overall YPC average.

 

[az_prof]

I will be releasing my projections on a team-by-team basis, as I complete them. I will then post analysis here for discussion.

My Broncos' Projections: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/teams/den.html

Until I figure out a way to post a viewer friendly version, you'll have to visit the link.

Key players:

Cutler: 284/464/61.2% for 3427/20 and 26/39/1 rushing

T. Henry: 328/1460/14 and 21/137/0

M. Bell: 122/537/4 and 25/193/0

J. Walker: 73/1095/9

Analysis:

The Denver offense had a down year last year, but I expect a rebound this season. I love Travis Henry. I used to hate him, but he showed last year that he does have talent. He's in a great situation; he's clearly better than Mike Bell, so Henry will get the bulk of the work.

Cutler will be good, but his overall fantasy numbers probably won't be huge because the receiving corp is Javon Walker and a bunch of junk. Smith is old, Marshall is young and unproven, Stokely is overrated, and Graham isn't anything special. I just don't see enough passing opportunity for Cutler to be great. Walker's numbers took a hit last year with Cutler, but that is more due to Cutler's inexperience. Walker will be solid again this year.

73/1095/9 for Javon Walker is not solid to me. Those numbers would lean on the disappointment side.

I think moving beyond Unlucky's numbers is unrealistic, actually.**Assume Denver has 1000 offensive plays (rush+pass atts)...that would be more 65+ more than last season. I am willing to go that high only b/c they were near 1000 the 3 years previous to '06.

**In the last 4 seasons, Shanny has not thrown more than he has ran....the highest ratio has been 50/50. They just signed Henry and plan to utilize him, for the sake of this conversation, I will go 50/50, but that is a stretch.

**Last season, Walker received 27% of the teams targets, 25% with Cutler in the game. He caught 55% of the balls thrown his way for the season, but only 51% of the targets with Cutler in the game. His yard/rec dropped from >15 to 12 yards per when Cutler was in the game.

Ok...so Cutler's real playing time is an admittedly small sample. But let's say for the sake of argument, Denver has 65 more plays than last season and throws the ball as much as they ever have in the previous 4 seasons (despite the arrival of Henry). Then, lets give Walker small upticks from his "percentage" numbers with Cutler last season (26% targeted from 25%, 54% caught from 51%), and we actually give him a full 16 ypc (3 more than what he had with Cutler last season)....you are only looking at 70-1123-XTDs (9-10 TDs seems reasonable to me with 70 recs). This seems to be ceiling for the '07 season, IMO.

If you don't like the numbers, I am curious as to what you would increase to yield better results.