Illegal Pants Downfield
Footballguy
I forget who posted this, or in what thread it was - but someone here in the IDP forum pointed out that IDPs are susceptible to home-field official scorer's tendencies....reading through some of the new IDP Dynasty Thread reminded me of it...
On the offensive side, a 12-yard catch is a 12-yard catch. It's thrown by one QB. It's caught by one WR/TE/RB. Everything is cut and dry.
But on the defensive side, there's MUCH more subjectivity. Does the official scorer credit one LB with an unassisted tackle, or does one LB get a solo and another get an assist, or do two different LBs get only an assisted tackle? Do two DLs split a sack, or did one guy get the whole thing?
I believe the poster I'm recalling referenced Chicago's official scorers as being stingy with assists. So, while a guy might typically be an 8T/4A guy, when he's playing in Chicago, his scoring might trend lower because he's unlikely to tally many assists. Obviously, this would more heavily impact IDPs whose home scorers are tight with the stats - 8 home games in a more strict scoring environment would hurt the value of a guy who might otherwise be a solid play.
Does anyone have any statistical insights on this sort of thing?
What are some tendencies - which NFL teams are more generous with IDP scoring? Which teams are more stingy? How frequently do teams change the person serving as official scorer? If Chicago is stingy this year, and they get a new official scorer, might things loosen up? Is the variance enough to account for it when deciding who to start on a weekly basis (or, from a dynasty standpoint, who to draft in a rookie draft/pick up off waivers, etc.)
On the offensive side, a 12-yard catch is a 12-yard catch. It's thrown by one QB. It's caught by one WR/TE/RB. Everything is cut and dry.
But on the defensive side, there's MUCH more subjectivity. Does the official scorer credit one LB with an unassisted tackle, or does one LB get a solo and another get an assist, or do two different LBs get only an assisted tackle? Do two DLs split a sack, or did one guy get the whole thing?
I believe the poster I'm recalling referenced Chicago's official scorers as being stingy with assists. So, while a guy might typically be an 8T/4A guy, when he's playing in Chicago, his scoring might trend lower because he's unlikely to tally many assists. Obviously, this would more heavily impact IDPs whose home scorers are tight with the stats - 8 home games in a more strict scoring environment would hurt the value of a guy who might otherwise be a solid play.
Does anyone have any statistical insights on this sort of thing?
What are some tendencies - which NFL teams are more generous with IDP scoring? Which teams are more stingy? How frequently do teams change the person serving as official scorer? If Chicago is stingy this year, and they get a new official scorer, might things loosen up? Is the variance enough to account for it when deciding who to start on a weekly basis (or, from a dynasty standpoint, who to draft in a rookie draft/pick up off waivers, etc.)
