Tebow a QB1?! That's what I heard on the audible... (2 Viewers)

[Bob Magaw]

I just think it's Vince Young all over again. Except this Vince Young is white, and loves Jesus.

Confidence/self esteem and work ethic is a big difference too. Young never recovered from his personal issues.

I am more referring to people ignoring holes in their game, because of intangibles. Merril Hoge made this point very well on ESPN this morning, debating Tebow with Bayless. The intangibles are nice, but you need tangibles to win titles.

it sounds like you didn't intend this as too literal a comparison so fair enough, but since you brought it up... imo, you could more accurately characterize VY by inverting that statement... his horrible intanglibles (red flags on character, maturity, work ethic, professionalism, leadership, football IQ, etc) and admittedly hinky passing mechanics (though not as grotesque as tebow ) were overlooked largely due to his great success in college, and for that matter, as a pro (great W-L percentage, ROY, two time pro bowler despite being in and out of the lineup), WHEN he wasn't undermining his career with self-inflicted issues...

tebow, if anything, is the anti-VY... in terms of intangibles such as all the ones cited immediately above... i would extend this comparison, and call tebow the anti-typical running QB... i'd leave out cam newton as i have heard a lot of positives about his passion for the game and desire to be great... but previous QBs like randall cunningham, pre-mean machine vick & VY were notorious for getting by on their duly noted freakish athleticism, which only got them so far (not only never won a super bowl, none of them ever played in one?)...

i am confident that we agree on one thing... if tebow fails, it won't be because he lacked in ANY way, shape or form related to a lack in intangibles (and that is precisely what VY failed on... i'm not certain he can't redeem himself, as he has done it before, but he will need to change some things about his approach to the game)...

tebow has dominated at every level, from prep to college, and has enjoyed success in limited time as a pro... naturally there is a massive jump in competition to pro level, but i find it odd that SOME people (and this part is addressed to the thread at large) have already written him off as doomed to ever be capable of improvement (or, lets say, enough to make a difference in his long term projection), when that was what he was able to pull off at previous levels, due to his intangibles, work ethic, etc... florida wasn't exactly the best training ground and finishing school for a pro style offense... so he has started four games now, despite this being his second year, didn't have an off-season... it isn't too hard a stretch for me to envision him becoming more adept at taking snaps from center, improving footwork in his drops, progressing in his ability to read defenses, gain better chemistry, rapport and timing with his receiving weapons...

one advantage he could have, as a passer, is that until he proves he can be more proficient as a passer, the opposition will dare him to pass, by stacking eight defenders in the box, spying him with a LB or safety, etc... he SHOULD have more space to work with in the passing game...

i would just add that a very young AND promising nucleus of receiving weapons (ie - decker, demaryius and julius thomas) are both reason to temper expectations for his passing potential in the short term, but also could be cause for longer term optimism (say, for dynasty purposes)...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

As far as only trading Tebow for an RB1/WR1 - well, I still think Tebow should only be dealt for a top 12-15 RB, top 5-6 TE, or top 15-20 WR. Anything less and you are selling yourself short as Tebow showed that even on his worst day, he'll be a QB1. RB cutoff would be about Turner/Sjax, maybe Hillis/Mend/CJ2K as a buy lowWR cutoff would be Djax/Green maybe Vjax/White/Austin as a buy lowTE would be Gates/OD maybe Finley as a buy lowThe point is that you only deal Tebow for someone that will be a very clear upgrade in your lineup. I don't expect his numbers to tail off, and people with inconsistent QB production will soon him as the possible shot in the arm their team needs. Heck, if you don't have a QB1 lock (Brady/Brees/Newton/Rodgers/Vick types) then he might be the shot in the arm for your season.The overarching point is don't undersell him - the idea of Tebow going for a top 40 player in a trade might be laughable now, but anyone being honest with themselves about Tebow's fantasy potential for the rest of the season would laugh at taking anything less for him.

You're way off base here. You later contradict yourself by saying the QB position is the easiest to duct tape.In four recent drafts Tewbow went in the round 7-10 range. You're talking about guys in the 2nd to 4th round range as a cut off. How many drafts do you see QB6 going in the 2nd or 3rd round?

Using ADP is not always accurate to gauge trade value, which has a supply/demand angle. Because of Tebow's late emergence, he's often not the QB1 on the team that owns him, so they can feel free to use him as currency. On the other side, Tebow is probably the only QB available on the trade market who can be a real difference-maker in your lineup (unless you want to buy low on Rivers and believe he'll bounce back). So you will give a top 40-50 RB or WR depending on where you have a surplus to get Tebow if you are losing points in the QB matchup everyweek.QB is easy to duct tape, which should encourage you to trade Tebow to patch another position if you are hurting badly there, but at the same time, Tebow can also be seen as the "missing piece" for a team that is strong elsewhere and doesn't want to settle for that at QB. I'm not sure what is in opposition between those two ideas - it's the difference between the psychology of talking yourself into dealing for Tebow and talking yourself into dealing Tebow away.

 

[T J]

The guy is NOT a QB1. Very far from it.

Count me as a hater.

He scored some points vs. Miami. Whoop dee doo.

Am I the only one who noticed that the long pass to Fells was a wobbly duck that was only complete because Fells made a great diving catch? That pass is incomplete 95% of the time.

Tebow got real lucky. If you wanna say he's a #1 QB, go for it. Not a chance I'd have him on my team.

 

[Oh Yes!]

where did you hear this? the audible?

 

[Reepicheep]

Might as well pin this thread, it's going to be bumped every week for the rest of the season. Lotta crow being cooked up in here one way or the other.

 

[chinawildman]

Has any NFL team attempted to run the pistol offense yet? If not it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the broncos experiment with that formation, it appears well suited for Tebow + Moreno.

 

[shnikies]

you are looking at the wrong thing. you don't base all your forward projections off of a 4-game sample size. he is not going to have a rushing TD every game and right now he needs it to have a decent day. his passing skills are poor enough that he will have several under 100 yard, 0 TD games. if he does not rush for a TD in those weeks it is a disaster. he will rarely pick up huge amounts of yards passing due to poor accuracy and a mediocre WR group (I know he went over 300 once last year, that will be the rare exception he went over 300 4 times in 3 years at Florida with arguably similar talent at WR vs vastly inferior competition). you are basically counting on him to rush for 50 and a TD every single game to come near top 6 QB status. as we have seen the all-time QB record for rushing TDs is .75 a game. you are counting on Tebow breaking that handily just to equal your projections. I see almost no ceiling above that and lots of room to free-fall. all that to say, you want to be the one trading Tebow, not trading Michael Turner to get him.

if he plays as bad as Sam Bradford has this year, or Donovan Mcnabb, he'd be averaging about 9 pts a game, tack on about 40 to 50 yds rushing and that's 13 pt floor per week. Then factor in that he scored a rushing TD in every game he played in last year except 1, and you got an avg of close 19 pts per week, and that's 13 to 19 pts if has a bad passing game. Seems pretty solid right there.

floor means worst game. it reads like you think his worst passing games will be Bradford's average. I disagree and think his floor is 100 yards, 0 TDs. Bradford averaged 235 yards per game

So you're just going to ignore the 60 yards rushing he's averaging or the fact that if Denver scores a touchdown on offense it's almost certainly going to involve Tebow? Tebow's floor is his worst statistical game not some random stats you fabricate. What's Tebow's worst fantasy game as a starter so far? That's his floor and will be his floor until he does worse.

 

[Khy]

Tebow's lowest scoring game (that he played more than 5 snaps in) was Week 5 of this season when he came in and put up 17.75 in a single half. If you look at last season he got progressively better over the 3 week span (as far as fantasy value is concerned). To think that he won't get better over the course of a game is silly with what we have seen from him yet. If you want to give him a 'floor' value it would be 22.55 as that is the lowest fantasy week he has had in a full game. Seems rather "QB1" stats to me.

2010

Week 15: 24.7

Week 16: 26.1

Week 17: 29.65

2011

Week 5: 17.75

Week 7: 22.55

 

[hines]

you are looking at the wrong thing. you don't base all your forward projections off of a 4-game sample size. he is not going to have a rushing TD every game and right now he needs it to have a decent day. his passing skills are poor enough that he will have several under 100 yard, 0 TD games. if he does not rush for a TD in those weeks it is a disaster. he will rarely pick up huge amounts of yards passing due to poor accuracy and a mediocre WR group (I know he went over 300 once last year, that will be the rare exception he went over 300 4 times in 3 years at Florida with arguably similar talent at WR vs vastly inferior competition). you are basically counting on him to rush for 50 and a TD every single game to come near top 6 QB status. as we have seen the all-time QB record for rushing TDs is .75 a game. you are counting on Tebow breaking that handily just to equal your projections. I see almost no ceiling above that and lots of room to free-fall. all that to say, you want to be the one trading Tebow, not trading Michael Turner to get him.

if he plays as bad as Sam Bradford has this year, or Donovan Mcnabb, he'd be averaging about 9 pts a game, tack on about 40 to 50 yds rushing and that's 13 pt floor per week. Then factor in that he scored a rushing TD in every game he played in last year except 1, and you got an avg of close 19 pts per week, and that's 13 to 19 pts if has a bad passing game. Seems pretty solid right there.

floor means worst game. it reads like you think his worst passing games will be Bradford's average. I disagree and think his floor is 100 yards, 0 TDs. Bradford averaged 235 yards per game

So you're just going to ignore the 60 yards rushing he's averaging or the fact that if Denver scores a touchdown on offense it's almost certainly going to involve Tebow? Tebow's floor is his worst statistical game not some random stats you fabricate. What's Tebow's worst fantasy game as a starter so far? That's his floor and will be his floor until he does worse.

it might be early, but even if he gets numbers today I think we can put the idea of Tebow being a QB1 to bed.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Oooof.

 

[Run It Up]

Do they play the 0-6 Dolphins every week? How many times does he throw for less than 100 yds in the first 3 QTRs before he doesnt deliver in the 4th QTR? Id imagine somewhere around wk 8.

20 minutes left in this game and he only has 46 yds, so very close.

 

[yoman]

I am happy that I started Tebow this week but I am not feeling very good about starting Tebow against the Lions next week. The Broncos are probably not going to be able to run the ball with McGahee out and the Lions are going to tee off on Tebow. He seems pretty tough but I can easily see him having an entire game like the first 55 minutes of the Dolphins game.

I agree, and I'm in the same boat going into week 8 with Rodgers on his bye week. I don't like the matchup. The Lions are not the same as the Fins. They could easily make him look like the Tebow of the first 55 minutes, and extend it out to 60. Not feeling too great, but as a bye week filler, he should still have a mid teens floor, although I am not expecting another 25 pt game this week. I'll take the 17-18 pts if that's what he can muster. I'm assuming decent rush yardage and rushing TD.

Interesting. I think the Lions have a glass jaw and still haven't recovered from their first loss. Despite having good DL they are NOT a good run D. Going into Mile High raging with Tebow mania provides a perfect storm for a broncos upset.

I guess the Lions jaw isn't quite as brittle as the Broncos. I was hoping you were right since I had to start Tebow this week.

 

[FavreCo]

He stinks. This is one of the most pathetic displays of quarterback play I have ever seen in the NFL. He has no skills. None!

It's actually now getting worse.

 

[SacramentoBob]

You would hope that a guy coming off of a bye week going against an 0-5 team would be able to put up some numbers. He barely held serve here.

This is the NFL. Because they're 0-5 doesn't mean that they are a Div-II college team or that anything is a given. He barely held serve? What does that even mean? The NFL doesn't work like that.

Broncos looking like a Div-II college.

 

[yoman]

You would hope that a guy coming off of a bye week going against an 0-5 team would be able to put up some numbers. He barely held serve here.

This is the NFL. Because they're 0-5 doesn't mean that they are a Div-II college team or that anything is a given. He barely held serve? What does that even mean? The NFL doesn't work like that.

Broncos looking like a Div-II college.

Was that insult intended for the Broncos or Div-II colleges.

 

[AgentMulder]

Thanks for whoever bumped this. I wonder if Bloom and company will backpedal on the audible regarding Tebow and his QB1 status. Someone mentioned last week was his floor... Maybe this is better indication of his floor.

 

[EBF]

Tebow is not a QB1.

He is, however, an excellent team defense.

 

[AgentMulder]

Tebow is not a QB1. He is, however, an excellent team defense.

I would agree. Sigmund Bloom and his lackeys on the Audible disagree.

 

[rickyg]

unbelievably, tebow has scored 17 pts for me in my league...not terrible...and he can still do more with 3 min left. it looks ugly bu he is putting up some #'s

 

[SacramentoBob]

Haters hate, others take the fantasy points and add to the wins column.

Tebow haters, call us when he stops putting up points.

PM me your number.

 

[ExaltedOne]

I'll take 15+ points as his floor

 

[hines]

I'll take 15+ points as his floor

you did not watch this game then

 

[duaneok66]

love it when people equate FF performance with NFL performance.

 

[Hue G]

I'll take 15+ points as his floor

I don't think that's his floor if they play a team that doesn't score 500 points they may not have their 3rd string D in so he can get a TD

 

[Run It Up]

love it when people equate FF performance with NFL performance.

Love it when people see FF numbers and dont watch games and assume there are trends at work other than blind luck.You can only play like crap for so long before you stop getting lucky.So far hes been really good againts the 0-5 Dolphins when they are in Prevent. Thats a pretty specific scenario.

 

[hines]

love it when people equate FF performance with NFL performance.

Love it when people see FF numbers and dont watch games and assume there are trends at work other than blind luck.You can only play like crap for so long before you stop getting lucky.So far hes been really good againts the 0-5 Dolphins when they are in Prevent. Thats a pretty specific scenario.

exactly

 

[duaneok66]

love it when people equate FF performance with NFL performance.

Love it when people see FF numbers and dont watch games and assume there are trends at work other than blind luck.You can only play like crap for so long before you stop getting lucky.So far hes been really good againts the 0-5 Dolphins when they are in Prevent. Thats a pretty specific scenario.

lol. we are arguiung the same point.

 

[ponchsox]

I hope the Tebow owner starts him against me

 

[ExaltedOne]

His running ability will give him FF points, regardless of how crappy a qb he is.

 

[jon_mx]

I'll take 15+ points as his floor

you did not watch this game then

Guys Tebow outscored this week so far:FlaccoBeckBreesDaltonKolbA. SmithPonderHasslebeckBrady - Tied

 

[duaneok66]

His running ability will give him FF points, regardless of how crappy a qb he is.

if he continues to be a crappy QB then he won't be in there to give you FF points

 

[ExaltedOne]

I don't see his defense getting better so he'll be playing against backups a lot

 

[Raider Nation]

Okay, now for the good news: not many defensive lines are equipped to put the same kind of heat on Timmy that Detroit did.

So it's all lollipops and puppies from here on out!

 

[az_prof]

I'll take 15+ points as his floor

you did not watch this game then

Guys Tebow outscored this week so far:FlaccoBeckBreesDaltonKolbA. SmithPonderHasslebeckBrady - Tied

I started Brees over him and it would have been to start Tebow, even with his horrible game. This is what? His fifth start? Everyone loves Cam but Tebow has already won more games than Cam even though he has started fewer games. I am not convinced he will be a long term starter yet, but he is a still a good fantasy option for now and it is far too early to judge his career one way or another.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Tebow is not a QB1. He is, however, an excellent team defense.

I would agree. Sigmund Bloom and his lackeys on the Audible disagree.

I will argue he's a terrible real life quarterback. I will also argue he's a good to great fantasy football quarterback. Should they put in Orton? Yes. Will they? I doubt it. I'm pretty sure Tebow is going to start from now until the end of the season. And as awful as he'll be, he's going to put up fantasy points. Those garbage time passes and rushing yards do little to help the Broncos win games but it's a big boost to the world of fantasy.

 

[Hendo]

I'll take 15+ points as his floor

you did not watch this game then

Guys Tebow outscored this week so far:FlaccoBeckBreesDaltonKolbA. SmithPonderHasslebeckBrady - Tied

aside of Brees/Brady that'd not exactly a glowing list to gloat about. You could pretty much do this same list wkly with other QBs to make positive points in either case.

 

[timschochet]

The worst starting quarterback I have ever seen in the NFL was Craig Whelihan, and he was only a starter by default. I'd take Whelihan over Tebow at this point.

 

[FavreCo]

Okay, now for the good news: not many defensive lines are equipped to put the same kind of heat on Timmy that Detroit did.So it's all lollipops and puppies from here on out!

They'd be smart to sit him vs the Jets, MINN, CHI and BUF. He can play vs the others and maybe, just maybe they can unload the worthless rag tebow jerseys they undoubtably have hanging in the stores. The merchandise gravy train was all this ###### had to give the franchise and that is heading south now too.

 

[FavreCo]

The worst starting quarterback I have ever seen in the NFL was Craig Whelihan, and he was only a starter by default. I'd take Whelihan over Tebow at this point.

I might take t-joke ofver this guy. I would however take tebow over J-Fat. He's comes cheaper.

 

[Reepicheep]

Tebow is not a QB1. He is, however, an excellent team defense.

I would agree. Sigmund Bloom and his lackeys on the Audible disagree.

I will argue he's a terrible real life quarterback. I will also argue he's a good to great fantasy football quarterback. Should they put in Orton? Yes. Will they? I doubt it. I'm pretty sure Tebow is going to start from now until the end of the season. And as awful as he'll be, he's going to put up fantasy points. Those garbage time passes and rushing yards do little to help the Broncos win games but it's a big boost to the world of fantasy.

Look people. QB play has been atrocious. No question. But I am completely baffled why people continue to keep their heads in the sand about the fantasy points. Its like the Tebow hate is so strong, they can't come to grips with the reality that he is and will continue to be a QB1 for fantasy purposes. (I do agree there is a chance he won't start the whole season, though)

 

[SacramentoBob]

Great breakdown by Tom Jackson and Trent Dilfer just now on Tebow.

 

[pfalvey]

I agree with those who say Tebow is a horrible NFL QB.......but I also agree with those who say he is a very good fantasy QB.

 

[Raider Nation]

I agree with those who say Tebow is a horrible NFL QB.......but I also agree with those who say he is a very good fantasy QB.

Honestly, I don't think there is anyone who debates either point. But there are also some - for whatever reason - who seem to take it as a personal affront that he's allowed to make a living as an NFL QB.

 

[munygon2]

He still outscored Flacco and Hasselbeck in my league today!

 

[shader]

Denver needs to play him every week just to get the fans off his jock.

Them they can draft Barkley or someone and start over.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

Does Quinn get a look at some point? I just can't see Fox wanting to watch this garbage for another 9 weeks.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Its almost crazy that Tebow can play has bad as he did and still put up ~16pts in fantasy. He's a terrible NFL QB, be he's a fantasy wunderkind.

 

[ponchsox]

Its almost crazy that Tebow can play has bad as he did and still put up ~16pts in fantasy. He's a terrible NFL QB, be he's a fantasy wunderkind.

Imagine if he posted respectable passing numbers?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I agree with those who say Tebow is a horrible NFL QB.......but I also agree with those who say he is a very good fantasy QB.

It will all be moot once he's parked in the garage.

 

[Saint]

I'll take 15+ points as his floor

you did not watch this game then

Guys Tebow outscored this week so far:FlaccoBeckBreesDaltonKolbA. SmithPonderHasslebeckBrady - Tied

If you count accuracy %, which my league does, then he outscored only the following:Luke McCownShaun HillBlaine GabbertCharlie WhitehurstKevin KolbJohn BeckAJ FeeleyEveryone else scored higher.... So, even with running yards, if you are equating passing accuracy, then he sucks. Now I will say, if his receivers dropped passes then that affects his accuracy numbers in my league scoring rules.