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Tebow-Time For a Trade? (1 Viewer)
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DoubleG
Footballguy
The same reason you're asking the questions is the reason you wont get good value for him. If he's starting, he's almost a lock as FF QB1. Period. There is little argument there (and those that are opposed are guys who either hate him, are looking at "real" football instead of purely FF, or who simply have reality issues).
The problem is, he could be benched as soon as he has 1 really bad game (again). That fear (i.e. the reason you want to move him) is the same reason people (at least realistic ones) aren't going to pay too much for him.
I think he will be the starter the rest of this season - and thought this was an interesting read comparing Tebow to Eli through 5 first starts - not including this past week (hint: Tebow's PASSING numbers are much better):
5 Starts
The problem is, he could be benched as soon as he has 1 really bad game (again). That fear (i.e. the reason you want to move him) is the same reason people (at least realistic ones) aren't going to pay too much for him.
I think he will be the starter the rest of this season - and thought this was an interesting read comparing Tebow to Eli through 5 first starts - not including this past week (hint: Tebow's PASSING numbers are much better):
5 Starts
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I think this week's game ensured that he won't be benched for the rest of the season. No doubt the risk was there, but they won the game, he played well and I also think it's a good sign for him that he came through when he really needed to perform.
As for what he's worth, I have no idea. I agree that you won't get value for him though by himself. I'd be trying to package him with another player for a positional upgrade. I think he's still pretty intriguing - I would take notice if someone offered me Tebow in a package deal.
As for what he's worth, I have no idea. I agree that you won't get value for him though by himself. I'd be trying to package him with another player for a positional upgrade. I think he's still pretty intriguing - I would take notice if someone offered me Tebow in a package deal.
glumpy
breeze
Is Fox changing the game plan for him? I know he said he won't, but I saw one reference about the Fla offense vs the Oakland offense. FTR, I picked up Tebow soon as he became the starter, because in the three games last year he was #1 fantasy wise which is what I'm looking for. If Fox will gameplan for him then I think he'll produce. For insurance this past week I also picked up Carson Palmer as I had a slot available which wasn't helping me anyway (Torain). In my league both of them outscored my starting QB Romo. 
In terms of trading--sure, I'd look at offers, but agree it's a tough sell in any case and we've got short benches and a lot of options in my case. Doubt it will happen.
In terms of trading--sure, I'd look at offers, but agree it's a tough sell in any case and we've got short benches and a lot of options in my case. Doubt it will happen.
Reepicheep
Footballguy
I suspect if we looked closely, we would find Tebow's stats compare favorably to a lot of QB's first five (or six) starts. For example, his yards per attempt, TD and Int percentages, and overall QB rating are all better than Sam Bradford's first six starts. Heck, statistically, Tebows first six starts compare favorably to Joe Flacco's most recent six starts.
Genester
Footballguy
http://www.denverpost.com/paige/ci_19274728By Woody Paige
The Denver Post
POSTED: 11/06/2011 01:00:00 AM MST
UPDATED: 11/06/2011 01:13:58 PM MST
The Broncos' young quarterback, 2-2 as an erratic starter, looked Quasimodo ugly in his fifth game.
In the first half of a blowout defeat, he completed only four passes, was sacked and harassed repeatedly by eight men in the box and played terrible as the Broncos failed to score a touchdown, and the NFC opponent got 24 points. The outcome was no longer in doubt when his pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.
While witnessing the debacle at the stadium, I wondered if I was absolutely wrong for supporting the acclaimed quarterback I had first seen play so skillfully in college.
Afterward, he was criticized in Denver and condemned nationally. The quarterback's performance was described as comical, amateurish and hopeless, and some in the media believed he was a monumental faux pas, or faux passer, as a first-round pick.
The Broncos coach even doubted the quarterback — saying privately that he was raw, couldn't read defenses, didn't throw accurately enough and scrambled too often.
However, the quarterback would go on to play in five Super Bowls, winning two, and was selected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
John Elway.
More quarterbacks through their first five starts:
ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, 1-4 record, two touchdowns, nine interceptions, would be the QB on Ravens' Super Bowl-winning team.
Southern football icon and No. 2 pick overall, Archie Manning, 2-2-1, 40-of-86 passing, five touchdowns, five interceptions, 10.9 rating in one game as Saints rookie, father of two NFL quarterbacks.
The Colts' (injured) Peyton Manning, No. 1 pick, 1-4, four touchdowns, 12 interceptions, would win one Super Bowl.
The Giants' Eli Manning, No. 1 pick (traded from Chargers following draft), 0-5, three touchdowns, seven interceptions, would win one Super Bowl.
The Packers' Aaron Rodgers, 2-3 as starter, finally, in fourth season, nine touchdowns, four interceptions, would win one Super Bowl.
Fox analyst Terry Bradshaw, 2-3, one touchdown, eight interceptions, 41-of-100 passing, would win four Super Bowls, Hall of Famer.
ESPN commentator Steve Young, 1-4 with Tampa Bay, three touchdowns, eight interceptions, would be 49ers' starting quarterback on one Super Bowl-winning team, Hall of Famer.
Fox analyst Troy Aikman, 0-5, three touchdowns, eight interceptions, won three Super Bowls with Cowboys, Hall of Famer.
Joe Montana, 1-4, six touchdowns, four interceptions, won four Super Bowls with 49ers, Hall of Famer.
Brett Favre, 2-3, six touchdowns, two interceptions, won one Super Bowl with Packers.
Sam Bradford, No. 1 pick overall in 2010 by Rams, 2-3, six touchdowns, eight interceptions, lost his fifth start 44-6.
Colt McCoy, tied with Boise State's Kellen Moore heading into Saturday night for most victories as a quarterback in FBS, drafted in third round last year, current Browns starter, 2-3, three touchdowns, three interceptions.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, current Bills starter who just signed a six-year, $59 million contract extension, 0-5, two touchdowns, 10 interceptions with Rams, then Bengals.
Michael Vick, current Eagles starter, 2-3, five touchdowns, one interception with Falcons.
Johnny Unitas, 3-2 as a starter in 1956 after taking over as Baltimore starter, threw interception for touchdown on first series, fumbled ball away on first play of second series, nine touchdowns, 10 interceptions with 3-4 record for season, won two NFL championships, Hall of Famer.
Cam Newton, No. 1 overall pick, 2011, current Panthers starter, 1-4 in first five games, seven touchdowns, six interceptions.
Then, there is: Tim Tebow, 2-3 as Broncos starter, seven touchdowns, four interceptions.
In five starts, Tebow has passed for 984 yards, rushed for 321 yards and completed 48.3 percent of his passes. In comparison, Elway (knocked out of his first game, replaced in the second half of his fifth game) passed for 420 yards, rushed for 41 yards, completed 45.8 percent and was 2-3 with one touchdown, five interceptions.
In his book for youngsters, the "Comeback Kid" would write that "TV commentators asked: 'Is Elway the $5 million mistake?' "
Elway was the Broncos' starter for the next 15 years — and had won more regular-season games than any other quarterback when he retired.
Elway also played poorly in his sixth start. He was 11-of-31 with no touchdowns and an interception in a loss . . . to the Raiders in Los Angeles.
The Broncos did not give up on Elway then? The Broncos must not give up on Tebow now.
No matter what happens in Oakland against the Raiders today, Tebow has to start the rest of the season so he can be judged properly.
John Elway, sacked nine times in the first half by the Bears in his fifth start, and those other quarterbacks who started rather badly certainly should agree.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Closely? Realistically, Tebow's stats are damn good compared most QBs in their first 6 starts. It's just that because of the controversy surrounding him, he's treated like a guy who's in the middle of his 4th season. When Tebow makes a typical young QB mistake like throwing the ball into coverage instead of just tossing it out of bounds it's because he's the worst quarterback in the history of the NFL, whereas with every other young QB it's "something he'll learn in time". It's the biggest hypocrisy going around these boards right now. The Tebow haters loathe the guy because his name brings him credit and attention that his NFL play doesn't yet deserve, yet those same people do the exact same thing and nitpick him as if he's some perfect 5th year starter rather than a young QB who's only just beginning to learn how to play in the NFL.FWIW, here are Tebow's numbers in his first 6 starts compared to some other guys that I heard ended up becoming fairly decent fantasy options.
Tebow
85-178 1187yds 6.7ypa 10td 4int
Mcnabb
84-165 782yds 4.7ypa 8td 6int
Stafford
115-213 1265yds 5.9ypa 5td 12int
Brady
120-190 1273yds 6.7ypa 10td 4int
Peyton
113-210 1363yds 6.5ypa 6td 14int
Bradford
133-234 1357yds 5.8ypa 7td 8int
Scouts honor, that was just the first set of names that popped into my head. Tebow ends up tied for first in YPA and td/int ratio (with Tom Brady, whom I heard ended up being pretty good). He really only trails in completion percentage and the fact that he's still tied for first in ypa in spite of that should tell anyone that claims to understand a lick of football that he's throwing downfield a whole lot more than most young QBs are asked to (though that's certainly not defending his accuracy, which has been poor thus far). His yards per completion dwarfs everyone else (14.0 vs 9.3, 11.0, 12.0, 10.2).
Oh, and remember that throwing motion that was going to lead to an inordinate amount of fumbles (because apparently every DE in the NFL can easily reach a quarterbacks back hip but not the area a couple of inches above it where other QBs have the ball)? He's first on that list for fewest fumbles lost as well.
Even if I go through it specifically looking for currently relevant guys who started statistically better the list dries up pretty quickly after Big Ben and Drew Brees.
And of course, None of those guys contributed 426/4 on the ground either.
People absolutely lambasted Tebow (and this board, with "I told you so"s) when he played poorly in a game. Yet they magically forget games that other young QBs had, like these...
8-21 60yds 2.9ypa 0td 0int (Mcnabb)
7-17 49yds 2.9ypa 0td 1int 1fumlost (Mcnabb)
12-24 86yds 3.6ypa 0td 0int 2fumlost (Brady)
22-42 208yds 4.4ypa 2td 5int 1fumble (Stafford)
Bottom line, Tebow is pretty much the definition of a hold right now. Risky to trade for so his trade value is lower than his production.
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Sir Chadwick
Footballguy
I'm holding. Call me crazy, but I'm starting Tebow @ KC this week over Brady @ Jets.
Khy
Footballguy
I don't like Tebow as a person. That being said, this is a great post. Also a really really solid article by Woody Paige. Find it rather hilarious that both of their 5th games were so similar that he is able to trick you when he reveals he's discussing Elway. Trying to argue that the kid has potential is just silly. The potential is clearly there, now will he turn his current stat line and bad habits around like so many greats before him? That remains to be seen, but this article proves that judging a young QB so early on can be misleading in the scope of his career.
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sports_fan
Footballguy
GregR
Footballguy
In a redraft I would be looking to trade for him if you're not that strong at QB.
In a dynasty I think you need some other circumstances to make trading for him worthwhile due to that risk he loses the job after this year. As an example, I did actually trade for him 2 weeks ago in a start 2 QB, contract dynasty league. But that was more about salary cap issues, wanting to trade away Romo after this season and clear $50 off my cap I need to extend guys like Arian Foster, Dez Bryant and Steve Johnson. While I don't think Tebow is likely to remain the starter after this year... his comparatively tiny $1 salary makes him worth the gamble he might... and I still will have Brady and Freeman (and Henne who is stashed on IR), so don't have to rely on Tebow necessarily.
In a dynasty I think you need some other circumstances to make trading for him worthwhile due to that risk he loses the job after this year. As an example, I did actually trade for him 2 weeks ago in a start 2 QB, contract dynasty league. But that was more about salary cap issues, wanting to trade away Romo after this season and clear $50 off my cap I need to extend guys like Arian Foster, Dez Bryant and Steve Johnson. While I don't think Tebow is likely to remain the starter after this year... his comparatively tiny $1 salary makes him worth the gamble he might... and I still will have Brady and Freeman (and Henne who is stashed on IR), so don't have to rely on Tebow necessarily.
LargeMouthBass
Footballguy
Call me crazier, I'm starting Tebow over Rodgers for the rest of the season.
Oh Yes!
Footballguy
these 2 guysCall me crazier, I'm starting Tebow over Rodgers for the rest of the season.
az_prof
Footballguy
If you have another good QB, yes, trade now if you can get good value. The problem is that other owners may want to see one more good fantasy game and be reassured that he won't be benched either. Of course, if that happens, his value will sky rocket and if it doesn't, it will plummet.
shnikies
Footballguy
His floor is 13 and his ceiling is 30. I think there's a better chance his value increases than decreases, especially with how Matt Moore did last week against the Chiefs. There's no way they can bench him regardless of performance after next week. He will need to lose 3 straight games before it's considered. I don't care what Elway said. Orton was 1-4 and until Tebow's record approaches that he'll remain the starter.
shnikies
Footballguy
I'm fairly convinced the leash isn't nearly as short as he's making it out to be. They have no other options and he's 2-1.The irony will be if Elway has a shorter lease with Tebow than the Broncos did with him. Maybe all this talk of benching him, is just a ploy to motivate Tebow - the last coach in Denver used to do stuff like that.
QBs don't have much trade value for WRs or RBs in my league. I'd hold another week to see if his value increases. One more good game and it goes up significantly. Considering his limited trade value at this point, it's a low risk, high return move.
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We Tigers
Footballguy
Too many good QBs right now to get much trade value from him in a 12-team league. Bigger, maybe, but this year we've got Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, Cam, Vick, Brees, Eli, and Romo tearing it up pretty nicely. Rivers is coming back into form too, and there's Roethlisberger, who's been playing very well after an awful start to the year. Then there are guys like Matt Ryan, Schaub, Freeman, and Fitzpatrick, who are putting up so-so numbers most weeks but have all had a few huge games mixed in there. Even stunners like Andy Dalton are putting up passable numbers.
There are probably 10 people in your league who wouldn't trade for Tebow. By now, most people with a bad QB situation have addressed it. The huge risk that could pay massive dividends would obviously be to trade whomever your "starter" is--put Stafford or Vick on the block, and see what you can get.
There are probably 10 people in your league who wouldn't trade for Tebow. By now, most people with a bad QB situation have addressed it. The huge risk that could pay massive dividends would obviously be to trade whomever your "starter" is--put Stafford or Vick on the block, and see what you can get.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
]Considering that the only negative on Tebow's fantasy trade value is the chance that he'll get benched, you don't think that's relevant?Might want to work on those dot connecting skills.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I own him in dynasty & can't give him away.
kellumsboys
Footballguy
after going through Freeman, Bradford, A.Smith and McCoy - Tebow might be the saviour of my FF season.
I don't care how good he is for the Broncos.
all I care about is his FF points and he is producing those.
wish he was on every one of my teams.
btw, I might have to back him up with Orton in case he does get benched at some point this year.
I don't care how good he is for the Broncos.
all I care about is his FF points and he is producing those.
wish he was on every one of my teams.
btw, I might have to back him up with Orton in case he does get benched at some point this year.
gethugefast1
Footballguy
According to Robert Bringhurst's Elements of Typographic Style, the details of typesetting ellipsis depend on the character and size of the font being set and the typographer's preference. Bringhurst writes that a full space between each dot is "another Victorian eccentricity. In most contexts, the Chicago ellipsis is much too wide"—he recommends using flush dots, or thin-spaced dots (up to one-fifth of an em), or the prefabricated ellipsis character (Unicode U+2026, Latin entity …). Bringhurst suggests that normally, an ellipsis should be spaced fore-and-aft to separate it from the text, but when it combines with other punctuation, the leading space disappears and the other punctuation follows. This is the usual practice in typesetting. He provides the following examples:i … j k…. l…, l l, … l m…? n…!
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Why the hell would you trade him away? If you're in a redraft league you should be trading FOR him. I would trade away any qb not named Aaron Rodgers or Michael Vick to get Tebow plus other pieces. Yes, I would flip Brady, Big Ben, Rivers, Brees, Newton, etc., if someone gave me Tebow plus some other parts.
Is he a good real life quarterback? The jury is still out. I doubt he will be but he has shown potential. Is he a good fantasy quarterback? Yes! He's an elite one. Those rushing yards are worth a lot.
Is he a good real life quarterback? The jury is still out. I doubt he will be but he has shown potential. Is he a good fantasy quarterback? Yes! He's an elite one. Those rushing yards are worth a lot.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
In FF circles, he may be a buy and hold right now.
