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Tell Me Why (1 Viewer)

BassNBrew

BassNBrew

Footballguy
InterBoard League Representative
OK, maybe a bit over the top, but not much. I know it depends on scoring system, but the point is this guy is the safest first round pick that will offer the biggest positive delta over his peers.

Last year 99-1310-11

FBG consensus projection estimate is 90-1150-10

Dress rehersal tonite and he's 3-48-1 in the first half. What the stats don't show is some great defensive plays made on him and a 50+ yarder called back on a penalty. Brees is locked onto this guy. If he's pressured he'll toss it Graham's way and hope for the best. The Saints should be good for 45+ TDs this year and Graham is red zone option number one. Barring injury, I don't see how he isn't a lock to beat the projections.

 
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'BassNBrew said:
OK, maybe a bit over the top, but not much. I know it depends on socring system, but the point is this guy is the safest first round pick that will offer the biggest positive delta over his peers.Last year 99-1310-11FBG consensus projection estimate is 90-1150-10Dress rehersal tonite and he's 3-48-1 in the first half. What the stats don't show is some great defensive plays made on him and a 50+ yarder called back on a penalty. Brees is locked onto this guy. If he's pressured he'll toss it Graham's way and hope for the best. The Saints should be good for 45+ TDs this year and Graham is red zone option number one. Barring injury, I don't see how he isn't a lock to beat the projections.
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If you want the guy, go get him.
 
Tony Gonzalez is the best TE in NFL history and he was probably never worth the 1.01 pick.

 
in 1.5 te ppr, yes. i would.

he will score just as much as any rb and he is more safe from injury than an rb.

 
After one season? No.

One season is just that...one season.

Chris Johnson and Jamaal Lewis do not rush for 2000 yards every season.

Peyton Manning doesn't throw for 49 TDs every year.

The big question for me with Graham/Gronk is whether last year was a flukish high water mark or a reasonable expectation of things to come.

 
'EBF said:
Tony Gonzalez is the best TE in NFL history and he was probably never worth the 1.01 pick.
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Graham eclipsed Gonzo's best yardage season ever. Tied Gonzo's best TD season ever. Was 3 receptions short of Gonzo's best season ever. Oh, Graham is only heading into his 2nd season as a starter too. Sky is limit for Graham, but just not sure he is quite 1.01 worth in PPR.I play in 1.5ppr for TE's and could potentially see that happening.
 
'EBF said:
Tony Gonzalez is the best TE in NFL history and he was probably never worth the 1.01 pick.
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So is Aaron Rodgers not worth the 1.01 because Brett Favre wasn't worth it 10 years ago too?Different time. Different era.Jimmy already put up a better season than Tony ever did. Curious comment. Not sure of its relevance to the question.
 
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So you think he'll be putting up record-breaking numbers every year?

I'm not convinced of that.

I do like Graham because of the offense and his talent, but he's still just a TE and no TE in the history of the game has been worthy of a top 5 pick year to year.

 
Just because a player did something once doesn't mean he's going to do it every season.

Look at someone like Randy Moss. He caught 23 TDs in 2007 because of the right mixture of talent and opportunity. It was a great season, but also far above his career average. I'm not convinced that guys like Graham and Gronk are going to be shattering records on a yearly basis, which is why I'd be inclined to let someone else buy high after their career years.

 
'EBF said:
After one season? No. One season is just that...one season.Chris Johnson and Jamaal Lewis do not rush for 2000 yards every season. Peyton Manning doesn't throw for 49 TDs every year.The big question for me with Graham/Gronk is whether last year was a flukish high water mark or a reasonable expectation of things to come.
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And the point of this thread while maybe not well laid out is that what I'm seeing indicates last year wasn't a fluke and the projections for this year are light. We're talking Gronk without Lloyd/Welker/Hernadez. We're talking a 2012 season with Meachem around. We're talking about an NFC South with improve offenses in Tampa, Carolina, and Atlanta to push the scoring higher in 6 games.
 
He's a freak. He is like Randy Moss in his prime. Defensive coordinates can devise a game plan to stop him and he still get his.

But, I know that you are a Panthers fan. You will hate yourself for making that pick. Don't do it.

 
'Donnybrook said:
He's a freak. He is like Randy Moss in his prime. Defensive coordinates can devise a game plan to stop him and he still get his.But, I know that you are a Panthers fan. You will hate yourself for making that pick. Don't do it.
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If he can put cash in my pocket the fortunes of millioners is secondary to me.
 
I'm done taking injury-prone RBs in the 1st round in PPR

give me Graham, Gronk, Brady, Rodgers, or Calvin, or even Julio

 
'EBF said:
Just because a player did something once doesn't mean he's going to do it every season.

Look at someone like Randy Moss. He caught 23 TDs in 2007 because of the right mixture of talent and opportunity. It was a great season, but also far above his career average. I'm not convinced that guys like Graham and Gronk are going to be shattering records on a yearly basis, which is why I'd be inclined to let someone else buy high after their career years.
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Who says he needs to shatter records annually? Didn't know you needed to do that to be the number 1 pick in a fantasy draft.You do know that Graham is going into his FOURTH year of football right? He only had one year of experience in organized football before the NFL. He only has THREE years of organized football under his belt. Even Gronkowski at least played football since he was a kid. Graham has not reached his ceiling.

 
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'Dez said:
I will give you 4 reasonsFoster, Rice, McCoy, Calvin.
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Agreed. I'd throw Rodgers in there too. In a dynasty league a QB like Rodgers has AT LEAST 5 top 5 years left. He will probably produce top numbers at his position for much longer than probably Rice, Foster, and McCoy will at theirs.
 
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'EBF said:
Just because a player did something once doesn't mean he's going to do it every season. Look at someone like Randy Moss. He caught 23 TDs in 2007 because of the right mixture of talent and opportunity. It was a great season, but also far above his career average. I'm not convinced that guys like Graham and Gronk are going to be shattering records on a yearly basis, which is why I'd be inclined to let someone else buy high after their career years.
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i think this was a 1.5 te ppr question. that doesn't change anything for you?
 
'EBF said:
Tony Gonzalez is the best TE in NFL history and he was probably never worth the 1.01 pick.
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fwiw Grahm is 3 inches taller and has a 1/2 inch greater vertical leap than the OG BBalling Htbrid TE. Oh and he's been playing organized football for what 3 years? That is sick. Tony G has also never even had a qb close to Drew Brees, save Montana and at that point in his career it doesnt even compare to brees. That and the saints D is awful once again, and in disarray with coaches etc. That just means they have to score more points.I have Graham in all 3 leagues ( 2 of em as keepers) I got him at 2.3 in a 12 teamer and couldnt have been happier in my redraft.
 
The best player comparison for jimmy graham isn't tony gozalez, its marques colston. Young stud te/wr hybrid, big target for drew brees, capable of running most any route, and reliable hands. If graham can put up colston numbers while maintaining his te eligibility, he will be on another level from tes we've seen in the past.

 
'bostonfred said:
The best player comparison for jimmy graham isn't tony gozalez, its marques colston. Young stud te/wr hybrid, big target for drew brees, capable of running most any route, and reliable hands. If graham can put up colston numbers while maintaining his te eligibility, he will be on another level from tes we've seen in the past.
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actually, he'd probably only be on the top level -- not a new level.think those guys would generally go 4th/5th rounds, but I don't play 1.5 te.
 
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It is just a new era for TE's. I am not sure i see Graham breaking the TE records every season, but i do see him having 1000+ yards easily and probably 10+ tds on a yearly basis. Gonzo had 1000+ 4 times and 10+tds 3 times in his 15 years.

Again, in 1.5ppr, Graham would have to be in the conversation for 1.01. Foster/RRice/McCoy all have a shorter shelf life according to previous outcomes for RB's. Rodgers/Calvin/Graham would probably be better dynasty values for longevity.

I think the poster who compared Graham to being a WR is dead on. The mismatches he creates is just unreal and that is not gonna change anytime soon.

Just for #'s sake in 1.5ppr, besides a QB, top 5 in ave/week scoring were Gronks, Calvin, Graham, A.Foster, Welker.

 
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'whatadai said:
'Dez said:
I will give you 4 reasonsFoster, Rice, McCoy, Calvin.
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Agreed. I'd throw Rodgers in there too. In a dynasty league a QB like Rodgers has AT LEAST 5 top 5 years left. He will probably produce top numbers at his position for much longer than probably Rice, Foster, and McCoy will at theirs.
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in my 16 team Dynasty leagues where TE get 1.5ppr and where you can start 2TE Gronkowski was delt for Mccoy, 1st and a 2nd.It seems crazy to think TE at 1.1 but in my leagues you draft foster at 1.1 then go ask the Graham owner what he wants for Graham and the response will be Foster +
 
I play in 1.5 PPR for TEs leagues and I'd guess some leagues will take him there. I can see why, but also I see many leagues going Calvin 1.1 or any of the top 3 RBs.

Stud RBs are in short supply, the TE crop this season is deep.

So, you have to decide if you want Graham/Lynch or Foster/Gates for example.

Give me the latter.

 
Ain't nothing but a mistake. Even in PPR, no way I would consider Graham ahead of the top 3 RBs. But in FFPC 1.5 PPR for TEs, yeah it's an option.

 
It's foolish to think Graham's stats go anywhere but down. Last season Brees shattered the yardage record while having 46 TDs. Realistically, that will not happen this year and the pie will get smaller. I just do not see Graham repeating what he did last year. That said, he's still probably a lock for 75 1000 10, and who can argue with that.

One minor reason you may want to bump Graham down slightly is that he's had minor issues with concussions, and running so many routes over the middle he is more of an injury risk than some imo.

 
'Shanahanigans said:
It's foolish to think Graham's stats go anywhere but down. Last season Brees shattered the yardage record while having 46 TDs. Realistically, that will not happen this year and the pie will get smaller. I just do not see Graham repeating what he did last year. That said, he's still probably a lock for 75 1000 10, and who can argue with that.One minor reason you may want to bump Graham down slightly is that he's had minor issues with concussions, and running so many routes over the middle he is more of an injury risk than some imo.
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Calvin Johnson had his best year to date last year. 96rec, 1681yards, 16TDs and Stafford passed for over 5,000 yards with 40 +TDs. Would it be foolish to say his stats won't go anywhere but down as well?
 
'ImTheScientist said:
'Shanahanigans said:
It's foolish to think Graham's stats go anywhere but down. Last season Brees shattered the yardage record while having 46 TDs. Realistically, that will not happen this year and the pie will get smaller. I just do not see Graham repeating what he did last year. That said, he's still probably a lock for 75 1000 10, and who can argue with that.One minor reason you may want to bump Graham down slightly is that he's had minor issues with concussions, and running so many routes over the middle he is more of an injury risk than some imo.
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Calvin Johnson had his best year to date last year. 96rec, 1681yards, 16TDs and Stafford passed for over 5,000 yards with 40 +TDs. Would it be foolish to say his stats won't go anywhere but down as well?
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Yes. If you think Calvin is going to top or equal what he did last year every year I would call that foolish. And I am a Calvin owner in dynasty. Realistically I am hoping for 90 1400 12.
 
'Shanahanigans said:
It's foolish to think Graham's stats go anywhere but down. Last season Brees shattered the yardage record while having 46 TDs. Realistically, that will not happen this year and the pie will get smaller. I just do not see Graham repeating what he did last year. That said, he's still probably a lock for 75 1000 10, and who can argue with that.One minor reason you may want to bump Graham down slightly is that he's had minor issues with concussions, and running so many routes over the middle he is more of an injury risk than some imo.
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I'm open to this, but did you watch the game last night?Last year as a Graham owner I'd watch the games and think why don't they throw it to Graham more often. Last night I was thinking when doesn't Brees look to Graham.
 
For me it's more of the 1.1 spot. Graham is someone I feel like I almost have to insert a negative and remind myself he is just a tight end; as I'm ready to predict all this greatness upon him and somehow need to tone that down.

RBs are weak. The Best WRs go fast and QBs are even going earlier because of the weak RBs.

You're at a loss at one of those if you take Graham at 1.1 and making up ground the rest of the draft.

 
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