Terrelle Pryor's rushing projections? Is Dodds way off? (1 Viewer)

[Mr. Retukes]

Come on man. Pryor was named the start today. Dodds projections haven't been updated in 3 days. Makes sense now? The most recent projections were not of prior as a full season starter.

So you believe that FBGs projected Pryor to throw 500 passes as a part time player?

 

[Bob Barker]

FBG has Pryor projected to be the year long starter on Oakland with 15 games played and over 500 pass attempts, but only projects him to rush 41 times for 193 yards and 2 TDs. Isnt this way too low if you consider him the full time starter? Pryor is a poor passer for the NFL but excels at running the ball, right up there with the top running QBs.

Pryors rushing stats

1 game he started last year

9-49-1

4 preseason games this year (probably about 6 quarters of play)

14-131-1

If he cant pass the ball he is gonna have to run it, I just cant see him running less than 3 times a game for 12 yds/game

Assuming he is the year long full time starter(which may be assuming a lot) I would think he would rush for at least 40-60 yds/game, possibly more, and a TD every 2-3 games.

If you are gonna project him to start all year I think you have to project him closer to 600-1000 yds rushing and 6-8 TDs. projecting 193 yards seems way off.

Thoughts?

Come on man. Pryor was named the start today. Dodds projections haven't been updated in 3 days. Makes sense now? The most recent projections were not of prior as a full season starter.

Come on man. read my post "FBG has Pryor projected to be the year long starter on Oakland with 15 games played and over 500 pass attempts, but only projects him to rush 41 times for 193 yards and 2 TDs." FBG obviously assumed he would be named the starter and projected him as so

 

[Aztec9er]

FBG has Pryor projected to be the year long starter on Oakland with 15 games played and over 500 pass attempts, but only projects him to rush 41 times for 193 yards and 2 TDs. Isnt this way too low if you consider him the full time starter? Pryor is a poor passer for the NFL but excels at running the ball, right up there with the top running QBs.

Pryors rushing stats

1 game he started last year

9-49-1

4 preseason games this year (probably about 6 quarters of play)

14-131-1

If he cant pass the ball he is gonna have to run it, I just cant see him running less than 3 times a game for 12 yds/game

Assuming he is the year long full time starter(which may be assuming a lot) I would think he would rush for at least 40-60 yds/game, possibly more, and a TD every 2-3 games.

If you are gonna project him to start all year I think you have to project him closer to 600-1000 yds rushing and 6-8 TDs. projecting 193 yards seems way off.

Thoughts?

Come on man. Pryor was named the start today. Dodds projections haven't been updated in 3 days. Makes sense now? The most recent projections were not of prior as a full season starter.

Come on man. read my post "FBG has Pryor projected to be the year long starter on Oakland with 15 games played and over 500 pass attempts, but only projects him to rush 41 times for 193 yards and 2 TDs." FBG obviously assumed he would be named the starter and projected him as so

My apologies. Didn't catch that part. But I seriously don't think it matters. He is an athlete, but I don't think he will have the impact that his skill set has the ability to reach. He is on a God awful team. Ya he will probably rush for 30-40 yrds a game, be we will have like 150 yards passing with maybe 1 TD. There's really no reason to waste a roster spot on him.

But I agree that it is kind of weird that Dodds botched his projections. What does that say about the rest of his projections that we pay money for?

 

[Bri]

RapSheet Ian Rapoport
#Raiders coaches have informed players that Terrelle Pryor will start at QB on Sunday, source tells me. Amazing

 

[Bronco Billy]

Just a question - if it is garbage time in a game and the Raiders are in full blown catch up/pass every down mode, given Pryor's inability to regularly complete even simple passes why wouldn't Flynn be placed into the game (assuming Flynn is on the bench at that time)?

 

[stbugs]

If you have a strong starting qb like a Peyton manning or a Brees/Rodgers/Brady/cam etc. then instead of rostering a guy like Alex smith or freeman as your qb2 why not swing for the fences and roster a guy like Pryor? If he pans out he will be lighting in a bottle and will give your team trade bait.

The other qb2 options aren't that exciting.

I actually disagree completely in this case. If you have a top guy, you already swung for the fences at QB, so Pryor only plays due to injury. If my top QB that I drafted early (relatively - so I should be less deep at other spots) goes down, the last guy I want is someone who is risky enough to get benched. I don't particularly care for Smith or Freeman, but those guys are on waivers, like Pryor in one league with very short benches (start 1 QB). I have Kaep and Dalton as my reserve and I wouldn't even think of Pryor unless he lights it up. In the other league (also short bench, start 1 QB), I have Romo and was able to get Schaub in the 11th round. In deep bench leagues or start 2 QBs, Pryor is far more interesting, but I would rather grab guys like Dalton/Schaub to back up my solid QBs since they appear to be lasting a long time, 10th-12th rounds. If I had deeper benches, I think I like Manuel better, but then I would think about Pryor, but certainly not as my sole backup to a top 5 QB.

I think from what I have seen, QBs are lasting a lot longer than expected, so you should be able to grab a solid QB1 and QB2 if you play the draft well. It didn't take much effort at all to get the pairings above.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Just a question - if it is garbage time in a game and the Raiders are in full blown catch up/pass every down mode, given Pryor's inability to regularly complete even simple passes why wouldn't Flynn be placed into the game (assuming Flynn is on the bench at that time)?

Right, this is a problem. So is Allen naming Flynn the starter for any given game down the line, though I'm guessing Pryor and him both come on the very cheap.

The question is whether Pryor can win doing what he's doing, and that will take some big passing TD plays. I don't think he has shown that yet. His completion percentage is still way low, and we've yet to see if he can avoid turnovers.

 

[DocHolliday]

The Raiders know what they have in Flynn which is why they named Pryor the stater. They need to find out what they have in him.

This is actually the best move the Raiders could make. And, I believe it gives Pryor a long leash. The Raiders know they are going to struggle this season. Pryor will have to be really awful to be replaced by Flynn.

I think Pryor could be fantasy relevant in 2 QB leagues due to his rushing ability. I would not bother with him in standard 1 QB leagues because he is too risky. His stats will be saved by garbage time many weeks.

My guess on Pryors stats:

900 rushing yards

2000 passing yards

18 TDs

26 INTs at least.

 

[Mr. Retukes]

Just a question - if it is garbage time in a game and the Raiders are in full blown catch up/pass every down mode, given Pryor's inability to regularly complete even simple passes why wouldn't Flynn be placed into the game (assuming Flynn is on the bench at that time)?

Because Flynn would be sacked every time he dropped back to throw the ball.

You see, the Raiders are stuck in a classic "Catch-22" situation. If the defense knows that the Raiders must throw the ball, then the Raiders are screwed no matter what they do. If they put Flynn back there, he gets sacked; if they put Pryor back there, he throws into triple coverage and either gets an incompletion or an interception.

But until they actually get to garbage time, Pryor represents the better chance of moving the ball down the field -- because he can actually keep the defense guessing for a while, and he can make plays with his legs and get a few first downs.

Pryor gives them a puncher's chance of scoring a knockout. Flynn might be the better option once the team improves their O-line and receiving corps, but that's not happening anytime soon.

 

[corpcow]

I didn't get to see the final preseason game, but Pryor actually looked quite good - showed nice accuracy - in his time in week 3. I was surprised, and impressed. I think he gets a b

From a fantasy perspective, the important thing to remember about week 4 is that, despite 3 for 8 and 31 yards, he had 3 rushes for 48 yards. His legs open things up for him and for the whole offense... and at the very least give him a decent floor each week. In a standard 10 or 12 team league, yeah, probably not going to crack starters. But in a 16 team dynasty, or in a start 2 QB league, I think he has a decent floor and very high upside if he can be more consistent.

For what it's worth, after watching him in Preseason Week 3, and some time last year, I added him in 2 different 16-team dynasty leagues. If he can put it together, we've already seen his upside in someone like Kaep.

 

[Chaka]

Just a question - if it is garbage time in a game and the Raiders are in full blown catch up/pass every down mode, given Pryor's inability to regularly complete even simple passes why wouldn't Flynn be placed into the game (assuming Flynn is on the bench at that time)?

DBs will play back and the DL will pin their ears back I think there will be a lot of rushing opportunities in that situation.

 

[B-Deep]

unless you are playing in a 16 team start 2 QB league, if you are seriously looking at/concerned about pryor's projections your season is likely over

 

[rickyg]

Everyone already has their minds made up about this guy...it's hilarious. Lets not even play the season and amount him a bust. How's that sound?

I'm not a Pryor backer, I'm a fantasy footballer looking to get any leg up that I can on my competition. It cost me nothing to roster Pryor. A bench spot that was being held down by my #7 wr who would never have cracked my lineup anyway. I have him behind Payton manning.

Here is how I see this playing out for me or anyone else with the balls to roster Pryor before week 1:

1) Pryor lights it up statistically for fantasy football purposes (notice I'm not talking about as a real nfl qb...very different). He puts up 60+ yards rushing, 200+ yards passing, 2-3 Tds BW rushing and passing. All of my league mates are now kicking themselves for not rostering this kid like I did. The allure with him goes sky high.

At that point I will test the waters to see what I can get in a trade for Pryor. If noone bites, that's fine. Ill hold into him as a nice backup for manning.

If Pryor REALLY CONSISTENTLY is doing well and putting up qb1 numbers but I'm still not receiving interest in him I might even do the unthinkable: trade Peyton manning for a stud RB/WR or a jimmy graham.

It gives me some good options that can tremendously upgrade my team mid season.

I have done this strategy before and when it hits its the difference BW losing in the playoffs as an above avg team or crushing everyone as a dominating force.

OR

2) Pryor is a disaster. He sucks worse than tebow ever sucked. Matt Flynn replaces him at some point due to how crappy he plays.

In this case, I will drop him like a bad habit and pick up one of those vanilla backup qbs that are in the wire like Schaub/weeden/Alex smith. There will certainly be one available in a 12 team start 1qb league. No harm no foul.

You see, I have no dog in this fight. I don't know how Pryor will fare this season and frankly I don't even care. I risked next to nothing to roster him before week 1 and my reward if he hits is sky high.

Everyone is looking at that Seattle game and dooming him. Do you think Chicago has a good defense? BC he lit them up in the 3rd preseason game, showing us a glimpse of the possibilities for Pryor as a fantasy force if he hits. That's what stuck out in my mind and that's all I needed to take the small risk of rostering him in every league possible.

 

[Teef]

unless you are playing in a 16 team start 2 QB league, if you are seriously looking at/concerned about pryor's projections your season is likely over

I love close-minded noobs like this.

 

[rickyg]

I also remember the entire football world bashing cam newton in the same manner before he stepped into the football field and lit up the entire league, breaking all sorts of rookie records and winning fantasy football championships for his owners.

That year I drafted him in my rookie draft to sit behind mike Vick (the year after Vick lit up the league and was now a hot commodity). After week 3 I was convinced that newton was the real deal. I traded away Vick for forte and ended up riding cam and forte to a championship.

It happens. And when you hit in a player like this, it literally makes your team unstoppable.

 

[B-Deep]

it's not the just seattle game, hell it is not even just him. It is all we have seen from him, it is the fact that he won this by default, it is the fact that this team looks to be pretty bad, it's the fact that they kept 4 qbs, etc etc etc

could he surprise us?

sure he could, draft him and see

then again denard robinson could also get put in after a horrible Gabbert performance and a Henne injury and he could pull a Tom Brady and lead the Jags to a super bowl title starting his 13 year reign as a top flight NFL QB changing the entire way the game is played

right now anything COULD happen

it doesn't seem too likely though

 

[B-Deep]

I also remember the entire football world bashing cam newton in the same manner before he stepped into the football field and lit up the entire league, breaking all sorts of rookie records and winning fantasy football championships for his owners.

That year I drafted him in my rookie draft to sit behind mike Vick (the year after Vick lit up the league and was now a hot commodity). After week 3 I was convinced that newton was the real deal. I traded away Vick for forte and ended up rising cam and forte to a championship.

It happens. And when you hit in a player like this, it literally makes your team unstoppable.

I

unless you are playing in a 16 team start 2 QB league, if you are seriously looking at/concerned about pryor's projections your season is likely over

I love close-minded noobs like this.

 

[rickyg]

it's not the just seattle game, hell it is not even just him. It is all we have seen from him, it is the fact that he won this by default, it is the fact that this team looks to be pretty bad, it's the fact that they kept 4 qbs, etc etc etc

could he surprise us?

sure he could, draft him and see

then again denard robinson could also get put in after a horrible Gabbert performance and a Henne injury and he could pull a Tom Brady and lead the Jags to a super bowl title starting his 13 year reign as a top flight NFL QB changing the entire way the game is played

right now anything COULD happen

it doesn't seem too likely though

Why does everyone keep saying he won the job by default? He didn't. He won it by beating out a worse player with his on-field performance all preseason. You know who else you can argue "won the job by default?" Russell Wilson, who also beat out an ineffective Flynn last preseason. He didn't turn out so bad.

I'm not comparing pryors skills to Wilson, calm down. But I'm comparing their situations. Both beat out a crappy weak armed qb that should never have been in the running to start in the first place.

But to say that Pryor didn't earn his job by outplaying his competition is silly.

Just like Wilson last year, It's not his fault that his competition was weak. He still earned the job with his play.

 

[Mr. Retukes]

On pace for over 1700 rushing yards.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

FBG has Pryor projected to be the year long starter on Oakland with 15 games played and over 500 pass attempts, but only projects him to rush 41 times for 193 yards and 2 TDs. Isnt this way too low if you consider him the full time starter? Pryor is a poor passer for the NFL but excels at running the ball, right up there with the top running QBs.

Pryors rushing stats

1 game he started last year

9-49-1

4 preseason games this year (probably about 6 quarters of play)

14-131-1

If he cant pass the ball he is gonna have to run it, I just cant see him running less than 3 times a game for 12 yds/game

Assuming he is the year long full time starter(which may be assuming a lot) I would think he would rush for at least 40-60 yds/game, possibly more, and a TD every 2-3 games.

If you are gonna project him to start all year I think you have to project him closer to 600-1000 yds rushing and 6-8 TDs. projecting 193 yards seems way off.

Thoughts?

Come on man. Pryor was named the start today. Dodds projections haven't been updated in 3 days. Makes sense now? The most recent projections were not of prior as a full season starter.

Then 3 days ago, which was after all of my drafts he was way off. Pryor had over 100 today alone, give credit when credit is deserved and if someone is way off, call him on it.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This is just an example of the major flaw in projections. People change their projections to fit their rankings, not make their rankings based on their projections.

I'm guessing that Dodds couldn't come up with the numbers that make make Pryor QB25 if he had 800 yards rushing, so to get him down to QB25 he just wildly adjusted the rushing numbers unrealistically downwards.

ETA: Not a knock on Dodds so much as the concept of projections. Everyone else does the same thing when doing projections.

 

[Nucker101]

This is just an example of the major flaw in projections. People change their projections to fit their rankings, not make their rankings based on their projections.

I'm guessing that Dodds couldn't come up with the numbers that make make Pryor QB25 if he had 800 yards rushing, so to get him down to QB25 he just wildly adjusted the rushing numbers unrealistically downwards.

ETA: Not a knock on Dodds so much as the concept of projections. Everyone else does the same thing when doing projections.

I hope that isn't the case, would make more sense to just bump down his games started/played projection.

 

[Beerguzzler]

I was impressed by Pryor. I wasn't sold on him, but I saw some flashes of him last year vs. the Chargers. If he can improve his accuracy a bit, those legs will be very productive. The big issue is he really doesn't have many weapons around him.

 

[Man of Zen]

This is just an example of the major flaw in projections. People change their projections to fit their rankings, not make their rankings based on their projections.

I'm guessing that Dodds couldn't come up with the numbers that make make Pryor QB25 if he had 800 yards rushing, so to get him down to QB25 he just wildly adjusted the rushing numbers unrealistically downwards.

ETA: Not a knock on Dodds so much as the concept of projections. Everyone else does the same thing when doing projections.

It should be a knock on Dodds, and I'd hope Dodds would own it.

I didn't see the projections, so I'm not invested in them. But if he projected Pryor for full-time starter snaps and projected him for the kind of rush numbers people are quoting above, and for the kind of fantasy results people are quoting above, that's amateur hour stuff.

Anyone can be wrong. The pros shouldn't be both wrong and foolish.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I was impressed by Pryor. I wasn't sold on him, but I saw some flashes of him last year vs. the Chargers. If he can improve his accuracy a bit, those legs will be very productive. The big issue is he really doesn't have many weapons around him.

Disagree. Rod Streater made some nice plays, Moore can make the tough catches but still drops the easy ones. Darren McFadden just missed on a long receiving TD. Watch out for Brice Butler when he gets his hammy right. I think he'll be another weapon. Preseason perception doesn't equal the reality on the field in the regular season when the vanilla offense is shed for real offensive game plans. Pryor himself is a weapon, and those who slept on him will be scrambling to get him this week on the wire. Secret's out.

 

[cstu]

I was impressed by Pryor. I wasn't sold on him, but I saw some flashes of him last year vs. the Chargers. If he can improve his accuracy a bit, those legs will be very productive. The big issue is he really doesn't have many weapons around him.

Disagree. Rod Streater made some nice plays, Moore can make the tough catches but still drops the easy ones. Darren McFadden just missed on a long receiving TD. Watch out for Brice Butler when he gets his hammy right. I think he'll be another weapon. Preseason perception doesn't equal the reality on the field in the regular season when the vanilla offense is shed for real offensive game plans. Pryor himself is a weapon, and those who slept on him will be scrambling to get him this week on the wire. Secret's out.

The secret's out that he looks dazed and confused in pressure situations. I know you want to think he's the next Kaepernick but he's not.

 

[Mr. Retukes]

The secret's out that he looks dazed and confused in pressure situations. I know you want to think he's the next Kaepernick but he's not.

He may have stumbled a bit in the final seconds, but he was neither dazed nor confused on the go-ahead drive before that.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

1. I am not the one comparing him to Colin Kaepernick

As Mr. Retukes said, he looked clearly like a leader on that go ahead 4th quarter drive.
Give the kid a break. It's his first meaningful game as a starter, and Kappy is the new bar? Nice backhanded compliment!

 

[karmarooster]

20+ points in his first start, and had that 40 yard TD pass to DMC called back, so there was more on the table. I'd expect defenses to adjust, and that will allow more rome for DMC to run. I think the pair could be a poor man's version of RG3+Morris from last year in terms of rushing yards. RG3 and Morris combined for around 2400 rushing yards. On a per game basis (bc DMC will likely miss games), they figure to approach the benchmark 2k combined rushing yards (todays 160 rushing yards project to 2500). Pryor could have multiple 100 yard rushing games.

Poo poo him all you want, but he's valuable as a borderline top 10-12 QB depending on scoring format.