What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Terrelle Pryor's rushing projections? Is Dodds way off? (1 Viewer)

Bob Barker

Footballguy
FBG has Pryor projected to be the year long starter on Oakland with 15 games played and over 500 pass attempts, but only projects him to rush 41 times for 193 yards and 2 TDs. Isnt this way too low if you consider him the full time starter? Pryor is a poor passer for the NFL but excels at running the ball, right up there with the top running QBs.

Pryors rushing stats

1 game he started last year

9-49-1

4 preseason games this year (probably about 6 quarters of play)

14-131-1

If he cant pass the ball he is gonna have to run it, I just cant see him running less than 3 times a game for 12 yds/game

Assuming he is the year long full time starter(which may be assuming a lot) I would think he would rush for at least 40-60 yds/game, possibly more, and a TD every 2-3 games.

If you are gonna project him to start all year I think you have to project him closer to 600-1000 yds rushing and 6-8 TDs. projecting 193 yards seems way off.

Thoughts?

 

jbz

Footballguy
agreed. if they think Pryor is the starter for the majority of the season, at the minimum I would expect 500--600 yards.

 

Banger

Footballguy
If he plays 15 games there's no way IMO that he doesn't have at least 350 yards, likely more. Prevent defenses all day, everything breaking down, check first option, then tuck and run.

 

Banger

Footballguy
I have howling as a last pick on one team. I might drop him to pick up Pryor. Would've gone for Manuel if he played this week. Once they go off then your have to hope for a good waiver wire position.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Has Pryor been official named as the starter?
No, but it's a formality since Flynn has a sore arm.
Funny. You make it sound like no QB has ever recovered from a sore arm.
Other than the sore arm, Flynn is average at best. Pryor gives them a shot a winning, and the players believe in him. They'll go with him as the starter.
That's my thinking...Flynn at his healthiest isn't that good so I don't they want to roll with him diminished in any way. Pryor's legs at least give them a chance even if he can't throw the ball well.

 

Bob Barker

Footballguy
Pryor could have huge value especially in large leagues or 2QB leagues if he starts all year. The Raiders are gonna suck no matter what. They already know Flynn is an average QB at best. At least Pryor brings some excitement to the team, give the kid a shot and see what he can do. If he fails then address the QB situation next year, this year is already pretty much lost.

I would say he gets a minimum of 600 rush yards, 6 rush TDs if he starts all year. Add those numbers to FBGs projections and he jumps to QB#13.

Pryor is a highly skilled runner. If they let him run wild I could easily see him running for over 800 yards, thats only 50 yards a game. That would place him in the top 10 fantasy wise, even with below average passing.

He may not be a good passer or not the long term answer to the teams QB needs but as long as hes starting his rushing stats will make him a relevant fantasy wise

 

SaintsInDome2006

Footballguy
Actually all four of them have low rushing predictions.

On the other hand if you look at I think three of the four over-project for passing yards and maybe passing TDs. Tremblay has it as around 2300 which I think is closer to reality.

I think Pryor can get to 900 yards rushing - but I'd also say if over 3000 yards bring down the projections on the passing side, probably balances it all out.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Atmospheric River

Footballguy
My gut tells me it's a typo since Dodds has been talking him up and the main thing that registers him as a sleeper are his legs. If not, yeah that makes very little sense.

 

Bronco Billy

Footballguy
A couple of 7 for 25 and 80 yds with 3 picks and 0 TDs days will truncate his numbers and put the better QB under center (not the more physically gifted but the one much more capable of playing the position). Those week 4 PS numbers were no accident - they are what Pryor is most days. This is a passing league and that is exactly Pryor's weakness.

Not sure how anyone predicts significant numbers for him this year based on what he's shown and his lack of any meaningful growth as a passer.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Pryor could have huge value especially in large leagues or 2QB leagues if he starts all year. The Raiders are gonna suck no matter what. They already know Flynn is an average QB at best. At least Pryor brings some excitement to the team, give the kid a shot and see what he can do. If he fails then address the QB situation next year, this year is already pretty much lost.

I would say he gets a minimum of 600 rush yards, 6 rush TDs if he starts all year. Add those numbers to FBGs projections and he jumps to QB#13.

Pryor is a highly skilled runner. If they let him run wild I could easily see him running for over 800 yards, thats only 50 yards a game. That would place him in the top 10 fantasy wise, even with below average passing.

He may not be a good passer or not the long term answer to the teams QB needs but as long as hes starting his rushing stats will make him a relevant fantasy wise
How desperate would you have to be to start him this year in a 1 QB league?

 

Bob Barker

Footballguy
Pryor could have huge value especially in large leagues or 2QB leagues if he starts all year. The Raiders are gonna suck no matter what. They already know Flynn is an average QB at best. At least Pryor brings some excitement to the team, give the kid a shot and see what he can do. If he fails then address the QB situation next year, this year is already pretty much lost.

I would say he gets a minimum of 600 rush yards, 6 rush TDs if he starts all year. Add those numbers to FBGs projections and he jumps to QB#13.

Pryor is a highly skilled runner. If they let him run wild I could easily see him running for over 800 yards, thats only 50 yards a game. That would place him in the top 10 fantasy wise, even with below average passing.

He may not be a good passer or not the long term answer to the teams QB needs but as long as hes starting his rushing stats will make him a relevant fantasy wise
How desperate would you have to be to start him this year in a 1 QB league?
Im just saying I think he has value as a very late round pick, more so in 2QB leagues, 16 teams leagues, or leagues that downgrade passing yards and passing TDs. Tebow even put up good fantasy stats when he started in Denver. I think think you can do worse taking Pryor as your 2nd or 3rd QB. If he sucks or gets benched then drop him, he didnt cost you much if anything.

look at Vicks first full year as a starter. Pryor may not be as good a runner as vick but the Raiders may need to rely on him more since their arnt many other options for them. And he should get plenty of garbage yards late in games when they are down a ton.

Vick 2002

2936 passing yards 16 Tds

777 rushing tards 8 Tds

Thats only about 190 yards passing 1 TD/game and 50 yards rushing .5 TD.game rushing

For fantasy Vick finished as QB#3 in standard FBG scoring that year passing for less than 3000 yards and only 1 passing TD/game

Doesnt take much for a running QB to put up decent fantasy stats, look at Tebow, Vick, and even Vince Youngs rookies year.

 

SaintsInDome2006

Footballguy
Pryor could have huge value especially in large leagues or 2QB leagues if he starts all year. The Raiders are gonna suck no matter what. They already know Flynn is an average QB at best. At least Pryor brings some excitement to the team, give the kid a shot and see what he can do. If he fails then address the QB situation next year, this year is already pretty much lost.

I would say he gets a minimum of 600 rush yards, 6 rush TDs if he starts all year. Add those numbers to FBGs projections and he jumps to QB#13.

Pryor is a highly skilled runner. If they let him run wild I could easily see him running for over 800 yards, thats only 50 yards a game. That would place him in the top 10 fantasy wise, even with below average passing.

He may not be a good passer or not the long term answer to the teams QB needs but as long as hes starting his rushing stats will make him a relevant fantasy wise
How desperate would you have to be to start him this year in a 1 QB league?
Im just saying I think he has value as a very late round pick, more so in 2QB leagues, 16 teams leagues, or leagues that downgrade passing yards and passing TDs. Tebow even put up good fantasy stats when he started in Denver. I think think you can do worse taking Pryor as your 2nd or 3rd QB. If he sucks or gets benched then drop him, he didnt cost you much if anything.

look at Vicks first full year as a starter. Pryor may not be as good a runner as vick but the Raiders may need to rely on him more since their arnt many other options for them. And he should get plenty of garbage yards late in games when they are down a ton.

Vick 2002

2936 passing yards 16 Tds

777 rushing tards 8 Tds

Thats only about 190 yards passing 1 TD/game and 50 yards rushing .5 TD.game rushing

For fantasy Vick finished as QB#3 in standard FBG scoring that year passing for less than 3000 yards and only 1 passing TD/game

Doesnt take much for a running QB to put up decent fantasy stats, look at Tebow, Vick, and even Vince Youngs rookies year.
Pryor's an excellent runner, but you are (IMO) way overestimating his passing capabilities. I'd say 2200-2300 passing, sub 50.00 comp. % with 2:1 INT:TD would be more like it.

I also agree with the above, if Pryor starts game 1, no way he lasts the whole year, Flynn will be in and out in games and maybe end up starting again.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Bob Barker

Footballguy
Pryor could have huge value especially in large leagues or 2QB leagues if he starts all year. The Raiders are gonna suck no matter what. They already know Flynn is an average QB at best. At least Pryor brings some excitement to the team, give the kid a shot and see what he can do. If he fails then address the QB situation next year, this year is already pretty much lost.

I would say he gets a minimum of 600 rush yards, 6 rush TDs if he starts all year. Add those numbers to FBGs projections and he jumps to QB#13.

Pryor is a highly skilled runner. If they let him run wild I could easily see him running for over 800 yards, thats only 50 yards a game. That would place him in the top 10 fantasy wise, even with below average passing.

He may not be a good passer or not the long term answer to the teams QB needs but as long as hes starting his rushing stats will make him a relevant fantasy wise
How desperate would you have to be to start him this year in a 1 QB league?
Im just saying I think he has value as a very late round pick, more so in 2QB leagues, 16 teams leagues, or leagues that downgrade passing yards and passing TDs. Tebow even put up good fantasy stats when he started in Denver. I think think you can do worse taking Pryor as your 2nd or 3rd QB. If he sucks or gets benched then drop him, he didnt cost you much if anything.

look at Vicks first full year as a starter. Pryor may not be as good a runner as vick but the Raiders may need to rely on him more since their arnt many other options for them. And he should get plenty of garbage yards late in games when they are down a ton.

Vick 2002

2936 passing yards 16 Tds

777 rushing tards 8 Tds

Thats only about 190 yards passing 1 TD/game and 50 yards rushing .5 TD.game rushing

For fantasy Vick finished as QB#3 in standard FBG scoring that year passing for less than 3000 yards and only 1 passing TD/game

Doesnt take much for a running QB to put up decent fantasy stats, look at Tebow, Vick, and even Vince Youngs rookies year.
Pryor's an excellent runner, but you are (IMO) way overestimating his passing capabilities. I'd say 2200-2300 passing, sub 50.00 comp. % with 2:1 INT:TD would be more like it.
I agree, but if his passing is that bad and he is throwing tons of Interceptions he most likely last long as a starter and will be benched, so you wont have to worry about him on your fantasy team. But if he is able to hold the starting job all year that probably means he is doing at least marginal as a passer and garbage time stats can only help him. So my passing projection are probably best case scenario, but I figure he will be benched if he cant complete a pass

 

mzkp54

Footballguy
I'm curious, in a 2 QB leagues, where most QB's are rostered, which QB's would you take Pryor over? I'm sure its a pretty short list, so which QB's do you have ranked under Pryor for this year?

 

Bob Barker

Footballguy
I'm curious, in a 2 QB leagues, where most QB's are rostered, which QB's would you take Pryor over? I'm sure its a pretty short list, so which QB's do you have ranked under Pryor for this year?
Hard to say, If Pryor starts all year I think he put up top 15 QB stats for fantasy. But he may get benched or hurt and be useless. So in a 2 QB league I would want him as my 3rd QB with 2 decent QBs I could count on already so if Pryor fails then it wont hurt me. But if he performs decent, depending on your leagues scoring, I think you have a high QB2/Low QB1. Hes currently going around QB30 so I think there is value to be had with how late you can get him

 

Joe Summer

Footballguy
If Pryor is named Oakland's starting QB, we must assume that he's going to run a lot more often than the average quarterback. Not just because he fits the mold of a stereotypical "running QB", but because the Raiders aren't very good and Pryor is going to find himself scrambling for his life on every other play.

On the other hand, I think the projection of 500+ pass attempts is unrealistically high. The only Raiders QB who ever had 500+ pass attempts and 40+ rush attempts was Rich Gannon, and Pryor ain't no Rich Gannon.

 

Mr. Retukes

Footballguy
I'm curious, in a 2 QB leagues, where most QB's are rostered, which QB's would you take Pryor over? I'm sure its a pretty short list, so which QB's do you have ranked under Pryor for this year?
Looking at the list of bottom-tier QBs that are probably available in 2-QB leagues...

Josh Freeman (rather have Freeman)

Alex Smith (tossup)

Ryan Tannehill (rather have Pryor for the potential)

Blaine Gabbert (rather have Pryor for the potential)

E.J. Manuel (rather have Manuel)

Brandon Weeden (Pryor)

Jake Locker (would rather have Pryor or even Ryan Fitzpatrick over Locker)

Christian Ponder (Pryor)

Geno Smith (I think I'd take a flyer on Smith just because I think he's got more potential than Pryor)

 

bagger

Footballguy
fbg is also missing the mark on vick. he is rated way too low. but more opportunity for me for people relying on those projections.

 

Donnybrook

Footballguy
I'm curious, in a 2 QB leagues, where most QB's are rostered, which QB's would you take Pryor over? I'm sure its a pretty short list, so which QB's do you have ranked under Pryor for this year?
Looking at the list of bottom-tier QBs that are probably available in 2-QB leagues...

Josh Freeman (rather have Freeman)

Alex Smith (tossup)

Ryan Tannehill (rather have Pryor for the potential)

Blaine Gabbert (rather have Pryor for the potential)

E.J. Manuel (rather have Manuel)

Brandon Weeden (Pryor)

Jake Locker (would rather have Pryor or even Ryan Fitzpatrick over Locker)

Christian Ponder (Pryor)

Geno Smith (I think I'd take a flyer on Smith just because I think he's got more potential than Pryor)
I don't play in any 2 QB leagues but it would be hard to imagine that any of these guys would be available.

Edited to add: That taking a risk on a player that not been named a starter on a bad team over a player that has been named a starter is not a risk I would be willing to take.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Chaka

Footballguy
Has Pryor been official named as the starter?
No, but it's a formality since Flynn has a sore arm.
Funny. You make it sound like no QB has ever recovered from a sore arm.
Other than the sore arm, Flynn is average at best. Pryor gives them a shot a winning, and the players believe in him. They'll go with him as the starter.
Not sure why you think the players believe in him and, while of course everyone wants to win games, the Raiders have bigger concerns to worry too much about whether they are going to go 4-12 or 2-14. I think the reality is that Flynn is pretty much a known commodity and the Raiders need to see what Pryor brings to the table in live action because they are going to have to make a decision on the QB of the future next season.

 

Mr. Retukes

Footballguy
Edited to add: That taking a risk on a player that not been named a starter on a bad team over a player that has been named a starter is not a risk I would be willing to take.
To each their own, I guess. To me, one of the things that makes fantasy football fun is picking sleepers with potential. Just to pick a recent example, remember that Alfred Morris was not named the Redskins starter until a couple hours before kickoff of Week 1.

Am I saying that Pryor is gonna shock the world the way that Morris did? Not at all. I'm just saying that fantasy football history is chock full of guys who who went from "not the starter" to "fantasy gold" in a matter of hours. And I'd rather take a flyer on a guy like that instead of taking a named starter who has been nothing more than mediocre for his entire career.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
I'm curious, in a 2 QB leagues, where most QB's are rostered, which QB's would you take Pryor over? I'm sure its a pretty short list, so which QB's do you have ranked under Pryor for this year?
In my league he went before Locker, Sanchez, Geno Smith, Nick Foles, and Matt Cassel. Blaine Gabbert went undrafted.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
I'm curious, in a 2 QB leagues, where most QB's are rostered, which QB's would you take Pryor over? I'm sure its a pretty short list, so which QB's do you have ranked under Pryor for this year?
Looking at the list of bottom-tier QBs that are probably available in 2-QB leagues...

Josh Freeman (rather have Freeman)

Alex Smith (tossup)

Ryan Tannehill (rather have Pryor for the potential)

Blaine Gabbert (rather have Pryor for the potential)

E.J. Manuel (rather have Manuel)

Brandon Weeden (Pryor)

Jake Locker (would rather have Pryor or even Ryan Fitzpatrick over Locker)

Christian Ponder (Pryor)

Geno Smith (I think I'd take a flyer on Smith just because I think he's got more potential than Pryor)
Blaine Gabbert is the only starting QB available in my 12 team super-flex league.

 

cstu

Footballguy
fbg is also missing the mark on vick. he is rated way too low. but more opportunity for me for people relying on those projections.
Vick will put up low end QB1 while he's healthy. Dodds is way too low on his passing numbers (200 yards a game).

 
Last edited by a moderator:

cstu

Footballguy
I'm curious, in a 2 QB leagues, where most QB's are rostered, which QB's would you take Pryor over? I'm sure its a pretty short list, so which QB's do you have ranked under Pryor for this year?
Looking at the list of bottom-tier QBs that are probably available in 2-QB leagues...

Josh Freeman (rather have Freeman)

Alex Smith (tossup)

Ryan Tannehill (rather have Pryor for the potential)

Blaine Gabbert (rather have Pryor for the potential)

E.J. Manuel (rather have Manuel)

Brandon Weeden (Pryor)

Jake Locker (would rather have Pryor or even Ryan Fitzpatrick over Locker)

Christian Ponder (Pryor)

Geno Smith (I think I'd take a flyer on Smith just because I think he's got more potential than Pryor)
Blaine Gabbert is the only starting QB available in my 12 team super-flex league.
I'm surprised any QB's are available in 2 QB leagues.

 

Bob Barker

Footballguy
fbg is also missing the mark on vick. he is rated way too low. but more opportunity for me for people relying on those projections.
I highly agree with this also. Its absurd where they have Vick in their most recent top 300. He has potential to be a QB1. He has done it several times before.

Not to give away top secret payed info but FBG top 300

166. J. Kerley

167. NE def

168 S. Greene

169 J. Jones

170 J. Tucker

171 Den def

172 Andre Brown

173 M. Vick

174 R. Woods

175 M. Tolbert

Just doesnt make sense. I dont own Vick but if I did there would be no way I would trade him for anyone of those guys, not even close

 

pbandy1

Footballguy
I'm in a 2-QB league so I'm definitely thinking of picking up Pryor because of his rushing abilities. The caveat is that there is a max of 3 QB's you can have so if I have to pick him up, I'll have to drop either Matt Schaub or Alex Smith. I actually think I'd prefer dropping Schaub over Smith since Smith has a pretty decent schedule this year.

 

RushHour

Footballguy
You are insane if you are even contemplating dropping Schaub so that you can roster Pryor and Alex Smith. Schaub isn't getting enough love this year.

 

rickyg

Footballguy
If you have a strong starting qb like a Peyton manning or a Brees/Rodgers/Brady/cam etc. then instead of rostering a guy like Alex smith or freeman as your qb2 why not swing for the fences and roster a guy like Pryor? If he pans out he will be lighting in a bottle and will give your team trade bait.

The other qb2 options aren't that exciting.

 

Bob Barker

Footballguy
I'm in a 2-QB league so I'm definitely thinking of picking up Pryor because of his rushing abilities. The caveat is that there is a max of 3 QB's you can have so if I have to pick him up, I'll have to drop either Matt Schaub or Alex Smith. I actually think I'd prefer dropping Schaub over Smith since Smith has a pretty decent schedule this year.
I wouldnt flat out drop Schaub or A. Smith, especially in a 2QB league. QBs in a 2QB league are pretty valuable so you might be able to package one of them and a marginal WR or RB for an upgrade at WR/RB. Then you could pick up Pryor for free and hopefully improve your starting lineup in the trade

 

wbaaoz

Footballguy
I'm in a 2QB (10 team) league where there's a roster max of 3. I drafted Romo, Vick and Big Ben. I'm tempted with Pryor and dropping Big Ben. Even though having Vick makes my team risky enough Pryor could be another (minor) lottery ticket. If I had a Locker or Smith Id definitely drop them for Pryor. Big Ben though -- I'm back and forth.

 

Bob Barker

Footballguy
This may be your last time to get this guy cheap. Pryor's value has a good shot of increasing greatly after week 1. 150-200 pass yards, 40-60 rush yard, and 2 Tds will put him at or near top 10 QB numbers for week 1 in most leagues. FBG has Pryor #18QB week 1 and that is only projecting him 22 rushing yards, he is only 4.7 fantasy points from their top rated week 1 QB, , I could easily see him running for a lot more and finishing in the top 10 this week. He is my pick for top waiver wire add after week 1.

 

rickyg

Footballguy
This may be your last time to get this guy cheap. Pryor's value has a good shot of increasing greatly after week 1. 150-200 pass yards, 40-60 rush yard, and 2 Tds will put him at or near top 10 QB numbers for week 1 in most leagues. FBG has Pryor #18QB week 1 and that is only projecting him 22 rushing yards, he is only 4.7 fantasy points from their top rated week 1 QB, , I could easily see him running for a lot more and finishing in the top 10 this week. He is my pick for top waiver wire add after week 1.
Agreed. Locked and loaded in almost all leagues with him as a bench stash. Could be lightening in a bottle.

 

Clifford

Footballguy
I just snagged him in a 2qb dynasty and my only hope is that he plays decent enough for two games to trade him to a team without a backup for a wr upgrade. This guy is going to be the first act in the worst story ever told at qb in the nfl. This will make Arizona last year look functional and composed. If he starts six games ill be amazed.

This guy's ceiling is tebow. I hope I'm wrong.

 

dewaser

Footballguy
and tebow was pretty good in fantasy. there's potential here. if i were you i would stash now and hope he goes off, which is very possible. 150 passing yds and a td to go with 50 rushing yards and a td is very reasonable and that would be nice fantasy points right there.

 

Clifford

Footballguy
I think he'll get enough garbage time stats to finish in the top 20 when he starts (maybe) but I think his actual play will get him benched quickly.

 

dewaser

Footballguy
I think he'll get enough garbage time stats to finish in the top 20 when he starts (maybe) but I think his actual play will get him benched quickly.
it's not like flynn is a much better option for the raiders. if he can make things happen on the field one way or the other they will play him. all it took was one decent preseason performance for him to win the starting job.

 

Clifford

Footballguy
It took desperation. Lets not kid ourselves. I think Pryor flames out in five games, they turn to Flynn, he lasts about 3, and then they sign some journeyman off the couch to finish the season.

 

dewaser

Footballguy
It took desperation. Lets not kid ourselves. I think Pryor flames out in five games, they turn to Flynn, he lasts about 3, and then they sign some journeyman off the couch to finish the season.
well, lets wait and see. but with all rushing qb's comes great fantasy potential. and if pryor's sitting on my wire, why not give him a shot.

 

Bob Barker

Footballguy
I agree he has a chance to get benched if he cant complete any passes, but the potential is there for fantasy stats as long as he is a starter. We will find out soon enough if he can cut it as a starter. But as long as he is starting I would put his floor as a top 20QB with his ceiling in the top 10. People hate on Tebow but in 14 games in 2011 he finished as QB19 passing for only 1729 yards and 12 TDs, and his 3 weeks as a starter, the last 3 weeks in 2010, Tebow averaged nearly 30 fantasy points/game, which had to be up there with the top QBs.

The potential is there with Pryor, We just have to see if he improved his passing enough to stick as a starter in the NFL

 

Aztec9er

Footballguy
FBG has Pryor projected to be the year long starter on Oakland with 15 games played and over 500 pass attempts, but only projects him to rush 41 times for 193 yards and 2 TDs. Isnt this way too low if you consider him the full time starter? Pryor is a poor passer for the NFL but excels at running the ball, right up there with the top running QBs.

Pryors rushing stats

1 game he started last year

9-49-1

4 preseason games this year (probably about 6 quarters of play)

14-131-1

If he cant pass the ball he is gonna have to run it, I just cant see him running less than 3 times a game for 12 yds/game

Assuming he is the year long full time starter(which may be assuming a lot) I would think he would rush for at least 40-60 yds/game, possibly more, and a TD every 2-3 games.

If you are gonna project him to start all year I think you have to project him closer to 600-1000 yds rushing and 6-8 TDs. projecting 193 yards seems way off.

Thoughts?
Come on man. Pryor was named the start today. Dodds projections haven't been updated in 3 days. Makes sense now? The most recent projections were not of prior as a full season starter.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top