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The AFC Landscape from the start of August (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I'll keep it short and sweet

Andrew Luck

Ben Roethlisberger

Patrick Mahomes

It's likely after tonight that all 3 are not going to be around to face Tom Brady in the playoffs. Even if Mahomes can come back the Chiefs are likely to mount a few losses. 

You have some others that have missed time or lost their starting job like Sam Darnold which costs the Jets to get in a hole so deep they likely can't climb out, Mariota benched in Tennessee, Baker Mayfield is under performing and he was the next big thing. 

Lamar Jackson is still moving, Carr and the Raiders might have new goals before they leave Oakland, Watson seems to have elevated his game. 

Foles was lost but they found a Minshew, Josh Allen looks promising, but there doesn't seem to be a whole lot left for the Patriots to have to worry about. 

And it's Week 7...what is left to figure out?

 
Yeah, not really seeing any AFC juggernauts now after the Patriots.

but, of all the QB's mentioned, Brady probably has the least to work with.

Edelman has a rib issue, is in obvious agony, and probably shouldn't be playing. Josh Gordon has something going on. Just not getting any separation to speak of.

TE's are less than average. Couple of nobodies on the roster as warm bodies. None of whom can block.

Pats were actually built to be a run first team this year but the O-line is so banged up and not playing well at all ... they are really struggling running and Brady has almost no time to pass.

Pats defense is what will dictate how far their team goes. I'm not expecting Brady to carry the team like he's done for so long ... well not until several of his teamates get healthy anyway.

 
The Patriots have a really easy schedule and very little competition in the AFC.   They will win the AFC championship at home.   It's pretty likely that NE wins another SB but maybe the Saints stay healthy and win the SB unless the refs rob them in the playoffs again.   The way the refs are officiating this season, the better team has a difficult time winning.   

 
I made a pats go undefeated thread week one I think.

And hey Meyers isn't too terrible.  Better than a warm body at least.

 
I made a pats go undefeated thread week one I think.

And hey Meyers isn't too terrible.  Better than a warm body at least.
I'll try and check in there, this one will slide to page 25 in a couple days.

I don't think Pats go undefeated, 14-2 seems reasonable though at this point. Host 2 Playoff Games, go to the SB, they don't typically win B2B, Brady at 42 accomplishes that en route to #7, it's incredible no matter how you view it and I openly talk about the Pats cheating, what drives most nutss is it seems like they don't need to bend the rules to win. That's another topic. 

 
If Mahomes is ok and can return soon, and Matt Moore can keep the Chiefs afloat ala Teddy B in New Orleans in his absence, then a healthy Mahomes with Hill/Hardman stretching the D, Kelce underneath, and some version of their triple-headed RBBC could give the Pats a tough time.  

If the Chiefs slip to a WC team, or Moore is terrible, or Mahomes can't return in time, then I'd look for Houston next to be the Pats' biggest threat, if they can keep their receivers healthy.  Nuk/Fuller/Stills/Coutee should be plenty of firepower, Watson is playing very well, and the combo of Duke/Hyde already showed us they can play the ToP clock-grinding keep-away type of game like they did last week vs. KC.  It's all going to depend on how well NE's defense continues to hold up, and if they continue to generate turnovers at the rate they are currently. 

 
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I'll try and check in there, this one will slide to page 25 in a couple days.

I don't think Pats go undefeated, 14-2 seems reasonable though at this point. Host 2 Playoff Games, go to the SB, they don't typically win B2B, Brady at 42 accomplishes that en route to #7, it's incredible no matter how you view it and I openly talk about the Pats cheating, what drives most nutss is it seems like they don't need to bend the rules to win. That's another topic. 
Here is my assessment of NE across the years. Across the board, across many areas, NE finds the acceptable limit or threshold for what is considered ok and what is not. For argument's sake, say there are 100 areas that that applies to. Now imagine a circle that a person can stand in. Say that circle is 4 feet across.

NE finds those boundaries and straddles them. They keep one foot on the legal side and then sticks the other foot on the questionable / illegal side. Using the circle analogy, that now means the distance from one foot outside the circle to having one foot extended outside the other side of the circle is now extended to 8 feet. You can do more and operate much better in 8 feet of space vs. 4 feet of space.

Some other teams have tried to push the limits in some areas before, but maybe those were in 3 or 4 areas. NE does that in 100 of them. That's why they consistently have been so good. This year is THE PERFECT example, and I saw it coming a mile away. Most people never gave any thought to the ramifications of the new pass interference rule. What people failed to realize is it gave BB a blueprint on how to better defend receivers and get away with assault and battery.

I guarantee that NE has been watching film of all other games, all other calls, and all other PI challenges. They know which refs call fouls and for what. They already know that the review process isn't going to overturn a call on the field. I've actually heard BB discuss this very topic on air before. He's figured out that defenders can impede receivers by getting them off their intended routes. He's learned just how handsy his guys can get. That they can get a hand in from certain angles but not from others. That it's ok to grab a jersey with an inside hand but not an outside hand. That you can grab a receivers arm on one side but not the other. That you can push a guy as long as your arm isn't fully extended. That as long as your defender appears to turn toward the ball that that can make all the difference in drawing a flag or not.

Should all these types of plays be flagged for defensive holding or PI? Probably. But they coach their guys on how to do it and not get caught. So on rare occasion when a NE player gets called for pass interference, in reality it's more like the refs missed 99 other plays that should have been flagged. Watch any NE game. Their secondary has hands all over receivers on almost every play. When it's clear they aren't getting flagged for it, they will try to get away with even more.

It's like Tom Glavine pitching back in the day. He would start by throwing a pitch on the black of home plate. Then 3 inches outside. Then 6 inches outside. Suddenly the strike zone for him would be twice the size. But since he had such good command, it got to the point where he didn't need to throw strikes to get calls and batters had to start swinging at pitches that weren't strikes. Same thing here. BB is coaching to what the refs are going to let them get away with.

So the question becomes . . . is this a form of cheating? Poor sportsmanship? To me, the bigger question is, why aren't other teams emulating what works for NE? Instead of teams complaining that NE guys get away with defensive holding or PI on every play (and it's just as bad with what they get away with for offensive holding), why aren't 31 other teams training their players to do the same thing and not get called for it? Essentially, if you can't beat them join them.

That's one of the reasons the NE defense is magically so much better than in prior seasons. They have a handful of different players on defense, but it's mostly the same group of players from last year. Sure, they haven't faced great competition, but they went from a decent defense to an out of this world defense almost overnight. To me, it's not a coincidence that the league made it easier for BB with the new review of PI rule. We are already discussing multiple reviews where NYC didn't call a flag retroactively. BB knows this, so he is having his guys be hyper aggressive knowing that the refs won't flag them on review.

 
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I think BAL can go into NE and win on any given Sunday......but that's about it. Maybe HOU as  they have legit playmakers on both sides of the ball.  

 
BB is coaching to what the refs are going to let them get away with.

So the question becomes . . . is this a form of cheating? Poor sportsmanship? To me, the bigger question is, why aren't other teams emulating what works for NE?
Because other teams don't get the same treatment from officiating crews that BB gets.  Sorry, but it's that simple.  Any other team that plays like NE plays is going to be shelled with flags.

 
Because other teams don't get the same treatment from officiating crews that BB gets.  Sorry, but it's that simple.  Any other team that plays like NE plays is going to be shelled with flags.
To a certain extent I disagree. If other teams play completely within the rules and then to constantly harassing receivers then, yeah, they are going to get flagged a lot because of the clear change in coverage.

This is not a mid-season thing you can suddenly morph and adapt to. It needs to be a gradual transition over time. Using Tom Glavine as the example, if Glavine started a game with pitches 6 inches off the plate, they would all be called balls. But over the course of a game, if he started nibbling and got more and more off the plate he could get away with it.

Other teams would need to start coaching this in OTA's and get the defense to buy in with subtle, strategic maneuvers. You couldn't go from being a hands off guy trying to win on speed and smarts to grabby all of a sudden and get away with it. I don't think defensively that the Patriots get a pass just because of the team jersey.

That may be true offensively, as the league doesn't want Brady to get hit very often, so looking the other way on a potential holding penalty is easy for the refs to let slide.

 
Back when the dynasty started I couldn't stand the pats.  I was the first guy to tell you Brady was a system qb.  Then when he went crazy with moss I relented and admitted that maybe this guy might be good.  Eventually I realized it wasn't the pats I hated, but their fair weather fans.

I'm with @Anarchy99

on this.  BB just out coaches the rest of the NFL.  He sees where the rules are and pushes the boundaries on how flexible they can be. And considering how /terrible/ the refs implementation of the new PI rules has been, it's worked out amazingly for their defense.

 
The Buffalo Bills are the only good team the Patriots have played this year and the Bills could’ve and should’ve beaten them.  Patriots are not as dominant as they appear. 
Will be interesting to see how the Bills play them week 16, but week 4 left a little dookie in BB’s pants.  

 
Any given Sunday.

Or so I hope...

As impressed as I am with the Pats, I (like many others) am weary of seeing their dominance. Of hearing about how great Brady and Bill and the FO is. 

Not their fault, of course, as it's true. Add that to the fact that the AFC has generally been the comparatively weaker conference for a decade now (perhaps longer). There are less tough opponents to get through to reach the AFCC and SB. 

But I hold out hope that we see parity return -- or at the very least, see the return of the fact that even the worst team can show up and kick the snot out of the best team in the league on any given weekend. It may be only my perception and not reality, but seems that happens less and less these days.

 
I think BAL can go into NE and win on any given Sunday......but that's about it. Maybe HOU as  they have legit playmakers on both sides of the ball.  
Ravens have a bye after going to Seattle this week, then host New England on Sunday Night Football on Nov. 3 in front of a home crowd that will be good and liquored up after a solid afternoon of pregame drinking. 

That should be a very interesting game. Ravens currently lead the NFL in ypg with 450 and trail the #1 Pats by 1 point per game. Can BB come up with a plan to limit Lamar? Conversely, the Ravens D has been pretty bad so far - but its best football is probably ahead of it. Earl Thomas finally seems to be getting comfortable with their system, and the addition of Marcus Peters and the presumed healthy return of Jimmy Smith (he might play this week but will be full go after the bye) gives them 4 legit CBs (along with Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr). They actually played a decent amount of 7 DB snaps last week vs Cincy and were very effective, even without Peters and Smith in the lineup. 

That could be one of the defining games of the rest of the AFC season. Baltimore loses and they're in a dogfight to get to 10-6 or 9-7 and squeak out the AFC North. If they win, they'll be an emerging young team that knocked off the undefeated Patriots and is looking for a deep playoff run. Naturally as a Ravens fan, I'd love to see Lamar have a national coming out party after laying an egg in the playoffs vs the Chargers last year. 

 
Ravens have a bye after going to Seattle this week, then host New England on Sunday Night Football on Nov. 3 in front of a home crowd that will be good and liquored up after a solid afternoon of pregame drinking. 

That should be a very interesting game. Ravens currently lead the NFL in ypg with 450 and trail the #1 Pats by 1 point per game. Can BB come up with a plan to limit Lamar? Conversely, the Ravens D has been pretty bad so far - but its best football is probably ahead of it. Earl Thomas finally seems to be getting comfortable with their system, and the addition of Marcus Peters and the presumed healthy return of Jimmy Smith (he might play this week but will be full go after the bye) gives them 4 legit CBs (along with Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr). They actually played a decent amount of 7 DB snaps last week vs Cincy and were very effective, even without Peters and Smith in the lineup. 

That could be one of the defining games of the rest of the AFC season. Baltimore loses and they're in a dogfight to get to 10-6 or 9-7 and squeak out the AFC North. If they win, they'll be an emerging young team that knocked off the undefeated Patriots and is looking for a deep playoff run. Naturally as a Ravens fan, I'd love to see Lamar have a national coming out party after laying an egg in the playoffs vs the Chargers last year. 
Over his brief career, BAL with Jackson starting has gone 9-1 against teams with losing records and 1-3 against teams with winning records. Of those 10 wins, they came against teams ranked the following in points allowed: 8, 13, 21, 25, 26, 29, 30, 31, 32, and 32. They may only trail NE by 1 ppg in terms of scoring, but they trail the Pats by 15 ppg allowed defensively.

Coupled with NE having gone 19-0 against first or second year QB's over the past few years, and the odds are against BAL. NE will likely sell out to stuff the run and make Jackson beat them through the air, which against the NE secondary is a tall order.

That's one of the reasons NE has done so well in their recent resurgence. There are so many young QB's in the league now that haven't figured out BB's schemes and it's been the seasoned veterans that typically have faired better against them for the most part.

 

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