One think I find entertaining about the Shark Pool is a huge majority of people think players by divine intervention will do better than the year before. 2011 could also have been his career year. At this point, we just really don't know. That's why they play the games.
With so few games in the NFL season, it's so important to look at team schedules from one year to the next.Clayton Gray's USOS is a great article, but I will use generic defensive YPC ranks so I don't publish specific parts of his work.Hypothetical: DeMarco Murray plays 2011 - 6 games vs NFC East, 4 games vs NFC South, 4 games vs AFC West, 2 flex games vs. STL and DET.2012 - 6 games vs NFC East, 4 games vs NFC West, 4 games vs AFC North, 2 flex games vs CHI and MIN2011 YPC ranks: 18, 18, 19, 19, 23, 23, 31, 25, 29, 15, 32, 20, 14, 13, 28, 302012 YPC ranks: 18, 18, 19, 19, 23, 23, 1, 4, 15, 28, 2, 9, 8, 21, 6, 10All other things equal, how can one expect Murray to outperform 2011 with new games against the likes of SF, BAL, PIT replacing CAR, TB, and DET?The same goes for any other offensive position. It's also based on some luck with injuries. Both Rodgers and Brees threw for over 360 yds against a banged up NYG in the regular season - once the Giants were healthy in the playoffs, how well did Rodgers do?