The Best arguments against drafting a QB in the 1st or 2nd rounds (3 Viewers)

[David Yudkin]

The point everyone is missing is in general stud QB maintain there Studliness while RBs Half the top 10 will be different you draft QB for there consistency

Just to clarify, in case people overlooked it, the reason why there is so much turnover in YEAREND running back rankings is injury. Guys that were Top 10 in 2011 won't be in 2012 because they got nicked up. Guys that were Top 10 in 2010 but were hurt some in 2011 will return if they are healthy.Put another way, I would probably rather have a high PPG guy that was not Top 10 in either year because he missed time both seasons than a guy that played in more games and averaged fewer PPG but may have been in the Top 10.No matter how you slice it, injuries happen . . . no matter what the position. Look at today. Jason Witten hasn't missed a game in 8 years and now his status for opening day is a question mark.

 

[The Jerk]

The same can be argued from the opposite side. If the opposition can take that play away . . . then what? I expect teams that had very little defensive preparation time in general to be much more educated and aware what Newton can do. We already saw that in practice last year.Newton's ppg averages in 4 game blocks: 30.4, 27.3, 25.9, 24.1. I agree that he could improve on his own.

If defensive coordinators figure out how to contain Cam inside the five, even if it's just a little bit more effective, that will significantly harm his production compared to last season. And it would hardly be the first time that defensive coordinators adapted to take away a specific part of a young player's game. I've gotta believe that for at least the three division opponents, that was a priority for defensive coordinators to examine in the offseason. The thing is that even if Carolina only gets some resistance, they may choose to vary their approach more on their own from that point forward.Newton's numbers could also decrease purely if the Carolina defense improves. Given that they were 27th in PA and 28th in yards allowed, that is certainly a possibility.For me, the likelihood that Cam's fantasy production decreases is far more likely than that it increases. I may very well be wrong here, but at this critical position, given my expectation and what I know it will take to have Cam on my roster, it's almost a certainty that Newton won't be on any of my rosters this season.

 

[David Yudkin]

One other thing I forgot to add which others have touched upon. No matter who you take early, you still need to draft well the entire draft and get a solid team across the board. And you need to take advantage of mistakes by other drafters. If a player falls round after round, you need to make others pay for passing on that player. If I already have 2 RB and Ryan Mathews is still on the board, guess what, the other positions can wait.

Similarly, you have to manage your team from start to finish, from now until the playoffs are over. I can't tell you the number of hours I go through poring over player news, waiver wires, box scores, injury reports, defensive fantasy positional points allowed rankings, etc. looking for an edge to grab next week's flavor of the week BEFORE he becaomes a waiver wire darling. I mean, what else is there to do at 2 a.m.?

All that is how you end up winning your league. It's not as simple as who you pick in the first round.

 

[David Yudkin]

I almost forgot. I did a 3 year study a few years ago (which admittedly is a little dated now) on how the RB landscape changed from Week 1 of an NFL season to the end of the season (specifically the fantasy playoffs). Here's what I discovered . . .

- 50% of teams had a different RB as the primary fantasy scorer in at least one of the 3 fantasy playoff weeks (Weeks 14-16).

- 61% of the time teams had a different primary RB (ie most touches that week) in at least one game in Weeks 14-16 than the guy that was the primary ball carrier in Week 1.

- 45% of the time the primary RB in Week 16 (the most common fantasy Super Bowl week) was not the guy that started the year as his team's No. 1 running back.

Given all that, should people draft any differently?

 

[Grateful Parrot]

Depending on my draft spot, I have a tendency to try and get a stud qb early. It has absolutely nothing to do with production (for the most part). I've been burned for many years of taking a stud RB early only to have him get injured and be out of production. QB (or certain QBs) rarely get injured or out for an extended period. Like one poster said of someone like me....my blanky. I'll take consistent points every time from one position. That allows me to play/risk other positions. Last year my first 5 rounds were. Brees, Forte, Matthews, J.Nelson(homer pick), J. Graham. I killed my league with those picks. If I can get that again, I would do it over and over.

 

[-jb-]

I almost forgot. I did a 3 year study a few years ago (which admittedly is a little dated now) on how the RB landscape changed from Week 1 of an NFL season to the end of the season (specifically the fantasy playoffs). Here's what I discovered . . .- 50% of teams had a different RB as the primary fantasy scorer in at least one of the 3 fantasy playoff weeks (Weeks 14-16).- 61% of the time teams had a different primary RB (ie most touches that week) in at least one game in Weeks 14-16 than the guy that was the primary ball carrier in Week 1. - 45% of the time the primary RB in Week 16 (the most common fantasy Super Bowl week) was not the guy that started the year as his team's No. 1 running back. Given all that, should people draft any differently?

Depends on a few factors, I suppose. How many RBs were start-worthy in the NFL in any given week over the span? What does the starting roster look like (RB flex could influence things)? I lazily looked at last year's QBs and saw that roughly 1/3 of the NFL had turnover at the position, but there is obviously less scarcity concerns at the position if we're assuming a start 1 QB league. At the same time, it's more common for league members to hoard RBs compared to QBs so your WW may be easier to deal with.A lot of moving parts in this one.

 

[Concept Coop]

The same can be argued from the opposite side. If the opposition can take that play away . . . then what? I expect teams that had very little defensive preparation time in general to be much more educated and aware what Newton can do. We already saw that in practice last year.Newton's ppg averages in 4 game blocks: 30.4, 27.3, 25.9, 24.1. I agree that he could improve on his own. One think I find entertaining about the Shark Pool is a huge majority of people think players by divine intervention will do better than the year before. 2011 could also have been his career year. At this point, we just really don't know. That's why they play the games.

I don't think you can take that play away. It is a run/handoff option and the primary ball handler can throw. They did it week in/week out. By week 3, every team facing Carolina knew what they were going to face when they played the Panthers. It didn't matter. If you try to stop the QB, he hands it off. If you react and play the RB, he keeps it. If you completely sell out, those rushing TDs turn into passing TDs. How long did it take teams to stop the old Nebraska option? Or the Air Force version? If you have the personnel to run a play in which there are so many option, all you can really do is guess. Newton handed it off at close to 50%. Teams have the same odds guessing heads or tails at the beginning of the game. Also note that his numbers went down as his goal line touches went down. That happened simply because they Panthers had the ball inside the 5 less. It is likely that those numbers average out. You are 100% right - we don't know. And he very well could regress. I just don't like the notion that he is more susceptible to it than anyone else, based on how he scored his points. It just seems to me like the potential that he scores less on the ground is balanced by the major room for improvement through the air.

 

[David Yudkin]

The same can be argued from the opposite side. If the opposition can take that play away . . . then what? I expect teams that had very little defensive preparation time in general to be much more educated and aware what Newton can do. We already saw that in practice last year.Newton's ppg averages in 4 game blocks: 30.4, 27.3, 25.9, 24.1. I agree that he could improve on his own. One think I find entertaining about the Shark Pool is a huge majority of people think players by divine intervention will do better than the year before. 2011 could also have been his career year. At this point, we just really don't know. That's why they play the games.

I don't think you can take that play away. It is a run/handoff option and the primary ball handler can throw. They did it week in/week out. By week 3, every team facing Carolina knew what they were going to face when they played the Panthers. It didn't matter. If you try to stop the QB, he hands it off. If you react and play the RB, he keeps it. If you completely sell out, those rushing TDs turn into passing TDs. How long did it take teams to stop the old Nebraska option? Or the Air Force version? If you have the personnel to run a play in which there are so many option, all you can really do is guess. Newton handed it off at close to 50%. Teams have the same odds guessing heads or tails at the beginning of the game. Also note that his numbers went down as his goal line touches went down. That happened simply because they Panthers had the ball inside the 5 less. It is likely that those numbers average out. You are 100% right - we don't know. And he very well could regress. I just don't like the notion that he is more susceptible to it than anyone else, based on how he scored his points. It just seems to me like the potential that he scores less on the ground is balanced by the major room for improvement through the air.

As I mentioned early, he already started regressing as the season wore on (that's overall fantasy wise, not just this one play). That tells me that teams adjusted. Also, if you look at the boxscores from last year, Newton lit up several teams passing the football and will not face those teams again this year. I don't know if that matters or not, but Newton averaged 410 yards a game passing in 3 games against ARi, GB, and CHI in the first month of the season . . . and 217 yards a game against everyone else. Again, that is such a small sample size and too much guesswork involved to really know if that means something or means nothing.

 

[tjnc09]

One think I find entertaining about the Shark Pool is a huge majority of people think players by divine intervention will do better than the year before. 2011 could also have been his career year. At this point, we just really don't know. That's why they play the games.

With so few games in the NFL season, it's so important to look at team schedules from one year to the next.Clayton Gray's USOS is a great article, but I will use generic defensive YPC ranks so I don't publish specific parts of his work.Hypothetical: DeMarco Murray plays 2011 - 6 games vs NFC East, 4 games vs NFC South, 4 games vs AFC West, 2 flex games vs. STL and DET.2012 - 6 games vs NFC East, 4 games vs NFC West, 4 games vs AFC North, 2 flex games vs CHI and MIN2011 YPC ranks: 18, 18, 19, 19, 23, 23, 31, 25, 29, 15, 32, 20, 14, 13, 28, 302012 YPC ranks: 18, 18, 19, 19, 23, 23, 1, 4, 15, 28, 2, 9, 8, 21, 6, 10All other things equal, how can one expect Murray to outperform 2011 with new games against the likes of SF, BAL, PIT replacing CAR, TB, and DET?The same goes for any other offensive position. It's also based on some luck with injuries. Both Rodgers and Brees threw for over 360 yds against a banged up NYG in the regular season - once the Giants were healthy in the playoffs, how well did Rodgers do?

 

[Concept Coop]

Newton's numbers could also decrease purely if the Carolina defense improves. Given that they were 27th in PA and 28th in yards allowed, that is certainly a possibility.

I expressed my opinion on the rest of this post in my reply to David.But, your point about Carolina's defense does have merit. I just want to point out how much his numbers could improve PER TOUCH, and how he could score just as much, on fewer possessions. A few less turnovers equals more touchdowns for the offense. The Carolina offense wasn't nearly as efficient as their blanket numbers suggest. They turned the ball over and didn't score as often, per drive, as I would anticipate them doing this year. Just something to think about.

 

[Concept Coop]

As I mentioned early, he already started regressing as the season wore on (that's overall fantasy wise, not just this one play). That tells me that teams adjusted. Also, if you look at the boxscores from last year, Newton lit up several teams passing the football and will not face those teams again this year. I don't know if that matters or not, but Newton averaged 410 yards a game passing in 3 games against ARi, GB, and CHI in the first month of the season . . . and 217 yards a game against everyone else. Again, that is such a small sample size and too much guesswork involved to really know if that means something or means nothing.

Fair play.The Panthers adjusted, played safer, and that did cause his numbers to drop. It also caused his interception totals to decrease, and led to them going on a nice winning streak. Like you said, we'll see. I see them giving Cam more freedom and responsiblity. I see them being a much better team, so I don't think they'll need to play small ball, keep it close, and hope to win late, nearly as often.

 

[The Jerk]

Newton's numbers could also decrease purely if the Carolina defense improves. Given that they were 27th in PA and 28th in yards allowed, that is certainly a possibility.

I expressed my opinion on the rest of this post in my reply to David.But, your point about Carolina's defense does have merit. I just want to point out how much his numbers could improve PER TOUCH, and how he could score just as much, on fewer possessions. A few less turnovers equals more touchdowns for the offense. The Carolina offense wasn't nearly as efficient as their blanket numbers suggest. They turned the ball over and didn't score as often, per drive, as I would anticipate them doing this year. Just something to think about.

I see your logic, and it's not at all crazy. These differences in opinion, weighing existing data, and projecting what is likely to happen the following season are what makes FF interesting. If we all thought just about the same, it wouldn't be nearly as interesting. Chances are in most leagues, there is someone like you and someone like me/Yuds. Owners like you are the ones who are going to draft Cam Newton, because I probably value him at least one round lower than you. For your sake, I hope you get him and ride him to a championship. I hope to be right on whoever I end up relying on, and not just at QB. Despite being very open to early QBs, I am likely in the wait/late QB camp this year. Where I'm drafting, I won't have a chance at the top 4 guys and I won't reach beyond that in picks 11-14.Good discussion.

 

[David Yudkin]

Newton's numbers could also decrease purely if the Carolina defense improves. Given that they were 27th in PA and 28th in yards allowed, that is certainly a possibility.

I expressed my opinion on the rest of this post in my reply to David.But, your point about Carolina's defense does have merit. I just want to point out how much his numbers could improve PER TOUCH, and how he could score just as much, on fewer possessions. A few less turnovers equals more touchdowns for the offense. The Carolina offense wasn't nearly as efficient as their blanket numbers suggest. They turned the ball over and didn't score as often, per drive, as I would anticipate them doing this year. Just something to think about.

I see your logic, and it's not at all crazy. These differences in opinion, weighing existing data, and projecting what is likely to happen the following season are what makes FF interesting. If we all thought just about the same, it wouldn't be nearly as interesting. Chances are in most leagues, there is someone like you and someone like me/Yuds. Owners like you are the ones who are going to draft Cam Newton, because I probably value him at least one round lower than you. For your sake, I hope you get him and ride him to a championship. I hope to be right on whoever I end up relying on, and not just at QB. Despite being very open to early QBs, I am likely in the wait/late QB camp this year. Where I'm drafting, I won't have a chance at the top 4 guys and I won't reach beyond that in picks 11-14.Good discussion.

What's interesting (well, at least to me) in reviewing what there is to review before drafts start and whatever criteria there is to consider, I find that roughly 75% of players end up in my "don't care about" bucket, as there are too many factors that would lead me to not be in position to draft them.By that I mean, I project them to have worse numbers than others, they may be nicked up already, their PPG is too low, they play on a team that can't run or pass protect very well, they switched teams, they are too old, their ADP is too high, etc. Usually that group of players gets drafted near where they should, so I let someone else have them. On rare occasion, someone in that bucket will slide in a draft and then I will have to reevaluate them. For example, Newton would fall in that class (at least for me). I've seen him go in the first or early second. If I didn't take a QB yet, I would consider him in the 3rd depending upon who was available still and who I had already picked. I would take him for sure in the 4th or 5th . . . but he will never make it that far. Thus he falls in the "don't care" category. If you stop and think about it, there will be a ton of players like that for each of us. Megatron is another one. He very well could be the top WR again, but I personally would not part with the #4 or #5 pick in a redraft to obtain him.

 

[The Jerk]

What's interesting (well, at least to me) in reviewing what there is to review before drafts start and whatever criteria there is to consider, I find that roughly 75% of players end up in my "don't care about" bucket, as there are too many factors that would lead me to not be in position to draft them.By that I mean, I project them to have worse numbers than others, they may be nicked up already, their PPG is too low, they play on a team that can't run or pass protect very well, they switched teams, they are too old, their ADP is too high, etc. Usually that group of players gets drafted near where they should, so I let someone else have them. On rare occasion, someone in that bucket will slide in a draft and then I will have to reevaluate them.

Apparently, we are very alike in our preparation and strategy for the season, at least when it comes to this "don't care about" aspect of player valuation. A significant portion of my analysis when deciding which positions I intend to take with my first 4 or so picks has to do with how many of those "don't care about" players are likely to be available at QB, RB, WR, TE in the middle rounds of a draft. I didn't always work in this "bottom up" approach to figuring out my ideal first few picks and of course the projected availability of middle round players is not a guarantee and must be weighted against the early-round value that presents itself. But I will say that my "don't care about" buckets have grown larger over the past few years and since I started working at least in part from the bottom up, my drafts have "worked" better. Of course, all that means is that I executed the draft successfully and got many of the players I was hoping to land. There is no guarantee that those players that looked so promising in late summer will be able to produce as I had hoped for when it is late autumn. But for the most part, it's the best you can do going into the season and at least positions you for a promising start to the season.

 

[Short Corner]

Regression... no off season last year for defenses.I don't mean just no preseason and mini camp...players weren't even allowed on the facilities...

Did the offensive players have special IDs that got them into said facilities?

 

[SelenaCat]

What's interesting (well, at least to me) in reviewing what there is to review before drafts start and whatever criteria there is to consider, I find that roughly 75% of players end up in my "don't care about" bucket, as there are too many factors that would lead me to not be in position to draft them.

Not to muddy the waters with another auction/draft comparison, but I think part of the reason that I like auctions is that I'm forced to evaluate pretty much all the players and can't truly eliminate players unless they're true "I'll never draft this guy" types (usually due to character issues that I'm unwilling to deal with). Of course, I'm more of a casual football fan who doesn't watch college ball, so a good portion of my enjoyment of fantasy prep is learning/relearning about who is where and what their situations are. I'd probably employ a similar strategy to yours (with the "don't care," that is) for our draft, but we don't assign draft positions ahead of time. Instead, we roll dice ten minutes before the draft starts and draft order goes from best roll at #1 slot to worst roll at #12. Again, I think it forces a little bit more preparation as you need to design scenarios based on all positions, at least for the first three or four rounds. Later rounds, however, it's easy to start excluding players as you do.

 

[The Jerk]

What's interesting (well, at least to me) in reviewing what there is to review before drafts start and whatever criteria there is to consider, I find that roughly 75% of players end up in my "don't care about" bucket, as there are too many factors that would lead me to not be in position to draft them.

Not to muddy the waters with another auction/draft comparison, but I think part of the reason that I like auctions is that I'm forced to evaluate pretty much all the players and can't truly eliminate players unless they're true "I'll never draft this guy" types (usually due to character issues that I'm unwilling to deal with). Of course, I'm more of a casual football fan who doesn't watch college ball, so a good portion of my enjoyment of fantasy prep is learning/relearning about who is where and what their situations are. I'd probably employ a similar strategy to yours (with the "don't care," that is) for our draft, but we don't assign draft positions ahead of time. Instead, we roll dice ten minutes before the draft starts and draft order goes from best roll at #1 slot to worst roll at #12. Again, I think it forces a little bit more preparation as you need to design scenarios based on all positions, at least for the first three or four rounds. Later rounds, however, it's easy to start excluding players as you do.

For me, the players in the "don't care about" bucket all have their draft price. Occasionally, one of those players I assume will be drafted before I would want them slip a full round or two and then suddenly they merit serious consideration. I would suggest that in an auction format, a 15-20% discount would be an analogous handling of the situation. It's not a literal "don't care about" at all, at least for me. David may think differently, but I believe even in his post he alluded to considering players he thought he would not have a chance at selecting if they fell sufficiently.

 

[cheese]

Regression... no off season last year for defenses.I don't mean just no preseason and mini camp...players weren't even allowed on the facilities...

Did the offensive players have special IDs that got them into said facilities?

Ya, I'm not buying that as a factor personally. There are plenty of easier reasons why the passing stats would balloon across the board. 1. It's a copycat league and everyone just watched GB win the SB in 2010 relying on a pass happy offense.2. Passing and scoring breeds more passing and scoring from your opponents. Once some teams go that direction, their opponents have to switch gears to keep up with the faster pace.3. Shortage of LB's with the athleticism to control the seam and an abundance of offensive players exploiting it.4. LB's and safeties being forced to account for a more athletic breed of QBs.5. Coaches running up the score with a "keep foot on the gas" mentality and the appeal of chasing records.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Regression... no off season last year for defenses.I don't mean just no preseason and mini camp...players weren't even allowed on the facilities...

Did the offensive players have special IDs that got them into said facilities?

Ya, I'm not buying that as a factor personally. There are plenty of easier reasons why the passing stats would balloon across the board. 1. It's a copycat league and everyone just watched GB win the SB in 2010 relying on a pass happy offense.2. Passing and scoring breeds more passing and scoring from your opponents. Once some teams go that direction, their opponents have to switch gears to keep up with the faster pace.3. Shortage of LB's with the athleticism to control the seam and an abundance of offensive players exploiting it.4. LB's and safeties being forced to account for a more athletic breed of QBs.5. Coaches running up the score with a "keep foot on the gas" mentality and the appeal of chasing records.

The silliest part of the "defenses didn't have time to prepare argument" is that less time notoriously favors the defense as the offense doesn't have time to put in a gameplan and defense is more reactive. Just looking at last year's scores, the average PPG on a Thursday game was about 40 vs 44.5 on the average non-Thursday game. It's the same in prior years.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

I think there are 2 ways to go about your QB strategy for those picking after the top 3 Rbs. Either draft one early (first 2 rounds) or take one very late (after round 7 or so). I don't think the group of Ryan, Rivers, Romo, either Manning etc. provides value. I'm in a 14-team league and these guys will go in round 4 or 5. The combination of Rodgers and a guy I could get in round 4/5 (Demaryius Thomas for example) will project to outscore Chris Johnson and the combination of Rivers/Ryan/Romo every time.

The way to maximize value if you don't want to take a QB early is to pass on the Rivers/Ryan/Romo group and get a guy like Freeman (insert QB you like) in round 8 or so. I think the worst way to build a team is to go after that mid-round group.

 

[cheese]

I think there are 2 ways to go about your QB strategy for those picking after the top 3 Rbs. Either draft one early (first 2 rounds) or take one very late (after round 7 or so). I don't think the group of Ryan, Rivers, Romo, either Manning etc. provides value. I'm in a 14-team league and these guys will go in round 4 or 5. The combination of Rodgers and a guy I could get in round 4/5 (Demaryius Thomas for example) will project to outscore Chris Johnson and the combination of Rivers/Ryan/Romo every time. The way to maximize value if you don't want to take a QB early is to pass on the Rivers/Ryan/Romo group and get a guy like Freeman (insert QB you like) in round 8 or so. I think the worst way to build a team is to go after that mid-round group.

I completely agree with you that you've got to go one extreme or the other on QB pretty much every year. The problem with the 2nd option is how terribly it worked last year. Almost anyone you liked in rd 7/8 got you crushed last year. I hate to be reactionary, but I'm not able to ignore it. It was hard to guess right last year out of Bradford, Freeman, Flacco, Kolb, Cutler, Cassel, etc. You basically needed to pick Matt Stafford or Eli right before that group or fall into Cam even later.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

I think there are 2 ways to go about your QB strategy for those picking after the top 3 Rbs. Either draft one early (first 2 rounds) or take one very late (after round 7 or so). I don't think the group of Ryan, Rivers, Romo, either Manning etc. provides value. I'm in a 14-team league and these guys will go in round 4 or 5. The combination of Rodgers and a guy I could get in round 4/5 (Demaryius Thomas for example) will project to outscore Chris Johnson and the combination of Rivers/Ryan/Romo every time. The way to maximize value if you don't want to take a QB early is to pass on the Rivers/Ryan/Romo group and get a guy like Freeman (insert QB you like) in round 8 or so. I think the worst way to build a team is to go after that mid-round group.

I completely agree with you that you've got to go one extreme or the other on QB pretty much every year. The problem with the 2nd option is how terribly it worked last year. Almost anyone you liked in rd 7/8 got you crushed last year. I hate to be reactionary, but I'm not able to ignore it. It was hard to guess right last year out of Bradford, Freeman, Flacco, Kolb, Cutler, Cassel, etc. You basically needed to pick Matt Stafford or Eli right before that group or fall into Cam even later.

Certainly understand being gun-shy on waiting this year. Kolb, Cassel, Bradford are all guys that were picked late (rd 7 or later last year) who busted. Freeman ended up as the 16th ranked QB and he was drafted 12th. So, certainly didn't live up to expectations but not necessarily a complete bust. Guys like Roethlisberger, Flacco finished pretty much where they were drafted. Cutler and Schaub were both busts too but that's due to injury.I still would contend that if you wait, you're better off waiting late. I think the mid-round guys provide the least amount of value.

 

[-jb-]

I think there are 2 ways to go about your QB strategy for those picking after the top 3 Rbs. Either draft one early (first 2 rounds) or take one very late (after round 7 or so). I don't think the group of Ryan, Rivers, Romo, either Manning etc. provides value. I'm in a 14-team league and these guys will go in round 4 or 5. The combination of Rodgers and a guy I could get in round 4/5 (Demaryius Thomas for example) will project to outscore Chris Johnson and the combination of Rivers/Ryan/Romo every time. The way to maximize value if you don't want to take a QB early is to pass on the Rivers/Ryan/Romo group and get a guy like Freeman (insert QB you like) in round 8 or so. I think the worst way to build a team is to go after that mid-round group.

This must depend largely on point system and starting line-up. In a start QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR league, you're drafting a back-up before your QB if you wait until round 8. In a flex league I can see it, though.My projections on the elite QBs are lower than what a lot of folks are using, and I'm higher on a few of the mid-round guys. To me, it works out about the same. The 10-12 spots are where I'm struggling.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm looking at a Vick/Romo QBBC.

 

[SouthJersey]

I'm looking at a Vick/Romo QBBC.

Use your 4th & 5th round picks on QB?? Why?

 

[pantherclub]

I'm looking at a Vick/Romo QBBC.

good luck

 

[tjnc09]

I'm looking at a Vick/Romo QBBC.

Did you throw up afterwards?

 

[bostonfred]

Once you get past brady brees and rodgers, I can't tell you which guy will put up the fourth best numbers. Are you sure that stafford will outperform peyton? What about peyton vs. Eli? I can see vick and cam being the #1 qb overall, or they could get hurt running, or fall back down to earth, as so often seems to happen with running qbs. What about everybody's darling, matt ryan? Is he better or worse than romo and rivers, who have a longer, better track record?

All of those guys are really close in my mind. Why would I take one earlier than the other when I could just wait to take one of the very last ones? And if I can do that, then I get value at the qb position compared to the other guys who waited in qb. Taking a qb in the first prevents me from gaining that value, and thus is a mathematical error just like playing seven deuce offsuit in poker. You might win the hand, but you are starting out way behind everyone else.

In other words, the qb1 would have to be SUCH a value that it would be hard to pass up. And that may be true based on your projections. A lot of effort has gone into debunking the huge projections for this year, but I don't think the qb vbd numbers necessarily fall down that far. But remember that even if a qb1 has a vbd number of 150, and the running back has a vbd number of 100, it doesn't meant the qb is the right pick. If you can get a qb with a vbd number of 120 in the second, and a rb with a vbd number of 50, then you would be better off going rb/qb than qb/rb. If you can get a qb in the 6th who has a chance to exceed the baseline, then you would be better off going rb/rb and taking the qb as late as possible.

People who think like me are waiting longer and longer, and there is a real chance that qbs fall even further relative to adp in real drafts in late august and september. they're getting huge value by picking up flex or backup running backs before they take a starting qb. Meanwhile, the guy taking the qb early is making up a rb1bc, and the guys they want aren't sliding because there is no game of chicken to play with the last good starting running backs the way there is at qb.

Similarly, taking three stud wrs in a start 3 wr league strikes me as foolish unless you use the value elsewhere. If you take three wrs, you can take a million shots at rb, and go really thin at backup wr. Otherwise, drafting a wr3 early robs you of the value you can get from the hot hand wr throughout the year. If you have good late round wr gems, you shouldn't take a wr3 early, if you have more good late round rb fliers, you should take the best wr3 you can and stock up on backs.

 

[NJ]

I almost forgot. I did a 3 year study a few years ago (which admittedly is a little dated now) on how the RB landscape changed from Week 1 of an NFL season to the end of the season (specifically the fantasy playoffs). Here's what I discovered . . .- 50% of teams had a different RB as the primary fantasy scorer in at least one of the 3 fantasy playoff weeks (Weeks 14-16).- 61% of the time teams had a different primary RB (ie most touches that week) in at least one game in Weeks 14-16 than the guy that was the primary ball carrier in Week 1. - 45% of the time the primary RB in Week 16 (the most common fantasy Super Bowl week) was not the guy that started the year as his team's No. 1 running back. Given all that, should people draft any differently?

Interesting study but I think those numbers are skewed heavily by all of the RBBC teams in the league, I'm not sure that using the numbers for all 32 NFL teams makes sense for the purpose of this argument. Outside of the top 10 or maybe 12 guys, every other team in the league uses some form of RBBC so its not unusual that a high % of those teams would end up with a different primary ball carrier in at least 1 game between weeks 14-16. If I am trying to decide between taking Ray Rice or Aaron Rodgers, do I really care that DeAngelo Williams had the most carries week 1 and Jonathan Stewart had the most week 14 for Carolina? It's irrelevant. The only thing that matters is how many of those top 5 to 10 RBs are likely to not be their primary ball carriers for their teams at the end of the season. Really boils down to likelyhood of injury to a RB vs. a QB to me as that is really the only reason any of those top guys won't still be the primary ball carrier for their team weeks 14-16. Its pretty much expected that the RB landscape for those other 20 teams is going to change a lot throughout the season, that's why RBs on those teams aren't drafted in the first round.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I don't think you are chasing points with Brady, Rodgers, or Brees, they all have been studs for many years now...Rodgers maybe the least of the three but they are very strong choices.

 

[silentcoach]

I don't think you are chasing points with Brady, Rodgers, or Brees, they all have been studs for many years now...Rodgers maybe the least of the three but they are very strong choices.

Oddly enough, I am in the boat that thinks Rodgers is also the least safest of the 3 QBS above. i MUST be drunk

 

[Voice Of Reason]

What is the difference between chasing the top QBs numbers last year and chasing the top RBs?

 

[silentcoach]

What is the difference between chasing the top QBs numbers last year and chasing the top RBs?

In the end, I don't think there is one. Here it is: Taking a RB early means you get a top 12 RB(adp) and still getting a top 12 QB (adp) later. Taking a QB early means you take a top 4 qb (adp) but a top 2000020020202 rb later . That's it in a nutshell. (hint: people fear taking a rb later).Know yourself. If it is out of your comfort to draft a rb later, then don't--but don't try to persuade those who don't follow the same startegy.