The Brady/Brees Debate (1 Viewer)

[NoCheese]

I read an article on Sportsline that suggests Brees is unquestionably the #1 FFB QB. They define the word as "no one is even close...not Brady, not Manning.

Now I understand that Brees threw 6 TD's last week and he threw 34 last year, but in 2007 Brady threw 50. He started w/ 378 yards and 2 TD's this year, progressively getting better and looking more comfortable in each quarter.

Is there any reason to think Brees is a lock to vastly outperform Brady? Will Brady's knee affect his upside this year?

 

[dgreen]

I wouldn't say it's unquestionable. I think they each have 40-TD potential this year.

 

[conan2]

Not a lock, but Brees playing in a Dome for most of his games gives him a significant advantage.

 

[NoCheese]

Not a lock, but Brees playing in a Dome for most of his games gives him a significant advantage.

Was thinking about this. It may be fairly evenly matched for much of the year, but when the weather gets bad, Brees would have an advantage.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Brady played the Lions, would we be asking if Brady was the clear number one and no one else was even close?

 

[NoCheese]

If Brady played the Lions, would we be asking if Brady was the clear number one and no one else was even close?

Depends on how they each performed I guess.

 

[mozzy84]

I have both on my dynasty team this year and I am rolling with brady for the most part

 

[Adebisi]

A convincing argument could certainly be made that Brees is the #1 FF QB this year, but it's far from "unquestionable."

 

[jon_mx]

If both are healthy, Brees will throw for much more yardage. I think Brady will throw for more TDs the rest of the way out though. Depending on the scoring system, Brees will probably score more points, but it won't be a knock out. I think Ben R. might be a big surprise here though.

 

[NoCheese]

Assuming the knee is fine, has the makeup and style of the Patriots changed much? By that, I mean the personnel and focus on the passing game. I realize 50 TD's was a miracle type year, but I would think Brady is a almost a lock for 30 TD's, with a chance at 35-40. How is this different from Brees' potential? Granted, 6 the first week gives him a head start.

 

[David Yudkin]

If both are healthy, Brees will throw for much more yardage. I think Brady will throw for more TDs the rest of the way out though. Depending on the scoring system, Brees will probably score more points, but it won't be a knock out. I think Ben R. might be a big surprise here though.

In 2007, Brady had 4806 yards to Brees with 4428.The funny part is that this year I see Brady having a ton of yards but fewer TD than 2007 (just harder to get in the end zone this year).I'm not sure we can automatically conclude that Bress = more yardage.

 

[NoCheese]

If both are healthy, Brees will throw for much more yardage. I think Brady will throw for more TDs the rest of the way out though. Depending on the scoring system, Brees will probably score more points, but it won't be a knock out. I think Ben R. might be a big surprise here though.

In 2007, Brady had 4806 yards to Brees with 4428.The funny part is that this year I see Brady having a ton of yards but fewer TD than 2007 (just harder to get in the end zone this year).I'm not sure we can automatically conclude that Bress = more yardage.

Brady 2007 - 4806 yards & 50 TD'sBrees 2008 - 5069 yards & 34 TD'sWhy do you believe Brady will have a tougher time finding the end zone this year, David?

 

[David Yudkin]

If both are healthy, Brees will throw for much more yardage. I think Brady will throw for more TDs the rest of the way out though. Depending on the scoring system, Brees will probably score more points, but it won't be a knock out. I think Ben R. might be a big surprise here though.

In 2007, Brady had 4806 yards to Brees with 4428.The funny part is that this year I see Brady having a ton of yards but fewer TD than 2007 (just harder to get in the end zone this year).I'm not sure we can automatically conclude that Bress = more yardage.

Brady 2007 - 4806 yards & 50 TD'sBrees 2008 - 5069 yards & 34 TD'sWhy do you believe Brady will have a tougher time finding the end zone this year, David?

The MNF game was EXHIBIT A. The Pats moved the ball but had drives stall. They struggled in the red zone for most of the game (like 58 minutes worth). If the Pats struggle to run (which they did against BUF), they will pass more in the middle of the field (and get more passing yards but not necessarily more TD).If you look at the 2007 season, the Pats had an insanely low total of turnovers. IIRC, they also had the fewest number of penalties in the league. And they did not have a ton of FG attempts either.50 TD is more than 3 a game. There are reasons why players haven't made a run at that total very often. What changed for Peyton after his 49 TD season? Pretty much nothing. Same players, same receivers, different result.I'm not saying Brady will drop to 25 TD, but I don't think he will make a run at 50. I think I projected him for 33-35 on the season. Maybe a run at 40, but IMO not a run at 50.

 

[Da Guru]

I highly doubt that any FF team has both of them so it does not really matter who is best. Whoever you have you should be happy with their production by the end of the season.

 

[parrot]

Did the Pats even try a jump-ball to Moss in the redzone the other night? That's been one of their bread and butter scoring plays.

 

[NoCheese]

If both are healthy, Brees will throw for much more yardage. I think Brady will throw for more TDs the rest of the way out though. Depending on the scoring system, Brees will probably score more points, but it won't be a knock out. I think Ben R. might be a big surprise here though.

In 2007, Brady had 4806 yards to Brees with 4428.The funny part is that this year I see Brady having a ton of yards but fewer TD than 2007 (just harder to get in the end zone this year).

I'm not sure we can automatically conclude that Bress = more yardage.

Brady 2007 - 4806 yards & 50 TD'sBrees 2008 - 5069 yards & 34 TD's

Why do you believe Brady will have a tougher time finding the end zone this year, David?

I'm not saying Brady will drop to 25 TD, but I don't think he will make a run at 50. I think I projected him for 33-35 on the season. Maybe a run at 40, but IMO not a run at 50.

Absolutely agree. The stars aligned perfectly that year, but I'm with you in thinking he'll get roughly 2/3 of the TD's and probably 85-90% of the yards. Plus, although he was tentative for the 1st quarter, and still a little "off" in the first half, he still had a pretty big game.

 

[puckalicious]

Until I see Brady face the Lions, or Brees face a real NFL defense I'll reserve judgment.

 

[switz]

The MNF game was EXHIBIT A. The Pats moved the ball but had drives stall. They struggled in the red zone for most of the game (like 58 minutes worth). If the Pats struggle to run (which they did against BUF), they will pass more in the middle of the field (and get more passing yards but not necessarily more TD).

And Buf was without their star LB for most of the game.Frankly, Brady looked rusty the first half, but much better the second half. Still it was against a horrible defense, and I don't think he's going to put up those stats against a half way decent defense.

Brees too played against a horrible defense, but he wasn't limited to 2 TDs... he threw 6. Even if you cut his performance in half to discount the Lions, he outperformed Brady.

 

[packersfan]

Did the Pats even try a jump-ball to Moss in the redzone the other night? That's been one of their bread and butter scoring plays.

I don't believe they targeted Moss on a single pass play in the end zone. That surprised me.

 

[Gr00vus]

Did the Pats even try a jump-ball to Moss in the redzone the other night? That's been one of their bread and butter scoring plays.

I don't believe they targeted Moss on a single pass play in the end zone. That surprised me.

Why bother when no one is covering Watson?

 

[packersfan]

Did the Pats even try a jump-ball to Moss in the redzone the other night? That's been one of their bread and butter scoring plays.

I don't believe they targeted Moss on a single pass play in the end zone. That surprised me.

Why bother when no one is covering Watson?

Because Moss is your best WR and one of the premier playmakers in the game. It all worked out in the end but I was still surprised they didn't try to get the ball to Moss in the end zone. I recall the drive they started inside the 10 (which began following a big play by Moss) and they never once threw a pass for Moss. They ended up kicking a FG on that drive. Again, it all worked out in the end with a victory but I was just surprised that when they got close to the end zone the ball never once went in Moss' direction.

 

[NoCheese]

The MNF game was EXHIBIT A. The Pats moved the ball but had drives stall. They struggled in the red zone for most of the game (like 58 minutes worth). If the Pats struggle to run (which they did against BUF), they will pass more in the middle of the field (and get more passing yards but not necessarily more TD).

Frankly, Brady looked rusty the first half, but much better the second half. Still it was against a horrible defense, and I don't think he's going to put up those stats against a half way decent defense.

The Bills alllowed the 4th fewest TD passes last year, only 2 more than both Pittsburgh and TennesseeI think horrible is a major stretch

 

[CMU37484]

Until I see Brady face the Lions, or Brees face a real NFL defense I'll reserve judgment.

As a Lions homer I have to say that I would never do any forecasting of any player based on their performance against the Lions.Byron Leftwich could have put up 250 and 3 TD's against the Lions.

 

[SSOG]

If I had to lay money, I'd bet on Brees to finish the season as the #1 fantasy QB, but I'd bet on Brady to be the #1 fantasy QB from here on out.

 

[puckalicious]

The MNF game was EXHIBIT A. The Pats moved the ball but had drives stall. They struggled in the red zone for most of the game (like 58 minutes worth). If the Pats struggle to run (which they did against BUF), they will pass more in the middle of the field (and get more passing yards but not necessarily more TD).

And Buf was without their star LB for most of the game.Frankly, Brady looked rusty the first half, but much better the second half. Still it was against a horrible defense, and I don't think he's going to put up those stats against a half way decent defense.

Brees too played against a horrible defense, but he wasn't limited to 2 TDs... he threw 6. Even if you cut his performance in half to discount the Lions, he outperformed Brady.

Since when do the Bills have a horrible defense?The Lions D is historically bad, there is absolutely no comparing the two.

 

[dparker713]

Well, his knee likely isnt as healthy as its going to be in 6-12 months, and even when it gets to 100% healthy, it wont be as good as it was before.

The Oline looked porous despite not facing a particularly tough pass rush.

Brady looks somewhat skittish when people are around him.

There seemed to be a lack of a credible running threat in week 1 for the Pats.

Brady, Moss, Welker and Faulk are all two years older than the monster 2007 season.

The 2007 offense was practically unstoppable in the first 10 weeks, averaging 41.1 ppg. After that they averaged 27.1 ppg through the Super Bowl. Still a very good offense, but not other worldly.

This is not to say that there arent question marks around Brees, but I'd say there are less in general. So, Brees would seem to have about the same upside and less risk.

 

[kutta]

Until I see Brady face the Lions, or Brees face a real NFL defense I'll reserve judgment.

As a Lions homer I have to say that I would never do any forecasting of any player based on their performance against the Lions.Byron Leftwich could have put up 250 and 3 TD's against the Lions.

Better yet, Garrard might even top 200 yards and 1 TD against the Lions...

 

[Breesisdaman]

If Brady played the Lions, would we be asking if Brady was the clear number one and no one else was even close?

I think Brees would have faired just as well against Buffalo.How many defenses did Brees do this against last year? He nearly broke Marino's record with Shockey, Bush and Colston all hurt. Why would he take a step back with these guys now contributing?

 

[SSOG]

I think Brees would have faired just as well against Buffalo.How many defenses did Brees do this against last year? He nearly broke Marino's record with Shockey, Bush and Colston all hurt. Why would he take a step back with these guys now contributing?

Because when players have record breaking or near-record breaking seasons in year N, they take a step backwards in year N+1.Edit: A QB has scored 380+ fantasy points 19 times in NFL history. In all 19 instances, the player did worse in year N+1. In fact, only once in NFL history has a QB had 380 points in back to back years (Brett Favre- 421 in '95, 390 in '96). Only one other player has had so much as back-to-back 350+ point seasons (Steve Young, '93 and '94).

 

[Breesisdaman]

I think Brees would have faired just as well against Buffalo.How many defenses did Brees do this against last year? He nearly broke Marino's record with Shockey, Bush and Colston all hurt. Why would he take a step back with these guys now contributing?

Because when players have record breaking or near-record breaking seasons in year N, they take a step backwards in year N+1.Edit: A QB has scored 380+ fantasy points 19 times in NFL history. In all 19 instances, the player did worse in year N+1. In fact, only once in NFL history has a QB had 380 points in back to back years (Brett Favre- 421 in '95, 390 in '96). Only one other player has had so much as back-to-back 350+ point seasons (Steve Young, '93 and '94).

And Other players are not Drew Brees. The only way I see him putting up less stats this year is if the Saints really do get the ground game going and don't need Brees to sling it.

 

[SportsMumboJumbo]

I think Brees is No. 1 because who would you be more afraid to play, Brady or Brees , in any given week. Both scary but I would not want to be anywhere near Brees

 

[lionsroar]

I was at that game this weekend and New Orleans let up off of the throttle. He could have had 7 or 8. I also find it remarkable at how winning for a franchise is like getting a shot of amnesia. Suddenly you completely forget how lousy your franchise was for the better part of your teams history. I hope to get a shot of that amnesia some day. some day...

 

[encaitar]

I have both on my dynasty team this year and I am rolling with brady for the most part

You could get a Tier 1 RB or WR with one of those guys. Hell, you could get ADP or MJD if you threw in a RB2 or RB3 along with one of those guys. It doesn't make much sense fantasy-wise to keep both of them.

 

[dragonflies]

If you stick to what each QB can accomplish this year, Brees is undeniiably the #1 QB.

Brees is healthy, has a great healthy supporting cast and a great offensive line. Yes, there defense is questionable. But that will only enhance his stats.

I think Brady's Oline is a lot more questionable this year.

 

[SportsMumboJumbo]

New England's D looked pretty suspect as well though

 

[SSOG]

And Other players are not Drew Brees. The only way I see him putting up less stats this year is if the Saints really do get the ground game going and don't need Brees to sling it.

No, other players are better than Brees. Other players are Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Daunte Culpepper, Tom Brady.

 

[Largie]

Saints offense has better play calling and will never change anything other than throw it a ton. Brady relies on 2 guys, Moss/Welker...one goes down, who steps up? There's 5 legit targets for WR in Orleans and Brees doesn't get hit at all.

 

[dparker713]

And Other players are not Drew Brees. The only way I see him putting up less stats this year is if the Saints really do get the ground game going and don't need Brees to sling it.

No, other players are better than Brees. Other players are Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Daunte Culpepper, Tom Brady.

That maybe, but the statisical trend you detailed is merely suggestive and not predictive. The odds seem to be against Brees, but then again the odds are against everyone.

 

[The Comedian]

Drafts are over. Who cares?

 

[SSOG]

And Other players are not Drew Brees. The only way I see him putting up less stats this year is if the Saints really do get the ground game going and don't need Brees to sling it.

No, other players are better than Brees. Other players are Steve Young, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Daunte Culpepper, Tom Brady.

That maybe, but the statisical trend you detailed is merely suggestive and not predictive. The odds seem to be against Brees, but then again the odds are against everyone.

Yes, it's only a description of past events rather than a true predictor of future events, but as you said... the odds are against everyone. Given the choice, I'm playing the odds.

 

[Clifton]

Aside from 2007 Brady has never thrown more than 28 touchdowns.

Nuff said...

 

[SSOG]

Aside from 2007 Brady has never thrown more than 28 touchdowns. to Randy Moss.

Nuff said...

I went ahead and fixed that for you.

 

[David Yudkin]

Aside from 2007 Brady has never thrown more than 28 touchdowns. Nuff said...

Aside from 2008 Brees has never thrown for more than 28 touchdowns.

 

[switz]

Aside from 2007 Brady has never thrown more than 28 touchdowns. to Randy Moss.

Nuff said...

I went ahead and fixed that for you.

How many TDs has he thrown to Moss this season and last?

 

[NoCheese]

Aside from 2007 Brady has never thrown more than 28 touchdowns. to Randy Moss.

Nuff said...

I went ahead and fixed that for you.

How many TDs has he thrown to Moss this season and last?

Do you have anything to contribute? First, you suggest that the Bills "D" is horrible when they allowed the 4th fewest passing TD's last year. Then, you ask how many TD's Brady threw to Moss last year. Is everything okay? There seems to be some issues. Can we help?

 

[jon_mx]

Can't we all get along??? Let's just all agree on this. Brady would be an outstanding backup for Brees on any fantasy team. OK, I am leaving now......

 

[Breesisdaman]

I was at that game this weekend and New Orleans let up off of the throttle. He could have had 7 or 8. I also find it remarkable at how winning for a franchise is like getting a shot of amnesia. Suddenly you completely forget how lousy your franchise was for the better part of your teams history. I hope to get a shot of that amnesia some day. some day...

I hope so too Lions fan

 

[SSOG]

Aside from 2007 Brady has never thrown more than 28 touchdowns. to Randy Moss.

Nuff said...

I went ahead and fixed that for you.

How many TDs has he thrown to Moss this season and last?

None, but so what? Tom Brady's on pace for 6,048 yards and 32 TDs this year despite not throwing a single one to Moss. And if we extrapolate his numbers from before he got hurt last year, he was on pace for 9,728 yards passing last year (and Moss was on pace for 6,400 receiving). I'd take a 10,000 yard passing season from Brady, even if he didn't get any TDs in the process.

 

[switz]

Aside from 2007 Brady has never thrown more than 28 touchdowns. to Randy Moss.

Nuff said...

I went ahead and fixed that for you.

How many TDs has he thrown to Moss this season and last?

None, but so what? Tom Brady's on pace for 6,048 yards and 32 TDs this year despite not throwing a single one to Moss. And if we extrapolate his numbers from before he got hurt last year, he was on pace for 9,728 yards passing last year (and Moss was on pace for 6,400 receiving). I'd take a 10,000 yard passing season from Brady, even if he didn't get any TDs in the process.

Not anymore...Check out this quote:

Tom Brady has been on the field for 21 offensive possessions this young season. With the exception of his heroic two series in the last six minutes of the win over Buffalo, the other 19 have resulted in no touchdown passes, two interceptions and a 64.2 passer rating.

Brady's current pace:4,752 yards, 16TDs, 16INTs

Brees current pace:

5,352 yards, 72TDs, 16INTs

I have no doubts Brady will not be as bad as last week for the course of the season, but I also don't believe he'll be as consistently good as the last two drives versus Buffalo, when Buffalo pretty much folded over into a fetal position. I just don't see any reason to think Brady will be nearly as good as Brees this season.

 

[Gr00vus]

Brady's current pace:4,752 yards, 16TDs, 16INTs

What changed? I'll tell you. This is the 1st year I've ever had Brady as a qb on one of my fantasy squads. Kiss of death.Did I mention I have Moss on a couple of squads too? Patriots offense.