The case for Jake Plummer (1 Viewer)

[Native]

' date='Aug 31 2006, 12:59 PM' post='5427944']

' date='Aug 31 2006, 08:32 AM' post='5426017']

I think the bottom line is, plummer either plays very well, or cutler comes in.

What makes you think this?Seriously... interested your logic on why a playoff contender would hand over the keys to an unproven n00b.... it's not going to happen unless Jake REALLY REALLY stinks up the joint and puts the Broncos out of playoff contention early (which won't happen). I don't think Plummer needs to play "very well"... I think he just has to play a step about very bad.

I stated this is another thread, but I think more relevant here. The Broncos drafted Jay Cutler high to be the QB of the future. Therefore, I wouldnt be surprised if they gave him some sporadic opportunities during the course of the year to acclimate him to the speed of the NFL. Everyone agrees that Cutler has looked great in camp; in fact, hes already claimed the backup job. If Plummer struggles at any point this year, I wouldnt be surprised if Shanny pulled Jake (even for a half) in order to give Cutler some playing time. I can also see Plummer having a quicker leash in blowouts to give Cutler some additional reps. Point is, I definitely see Cutler recieiving some playing time as the season progresses. While Plummer may not lose the starting job altogether, he should lose some playing time throughout the year - and that should definitely cut into his numbers.There are a few examples of highly-drafted QB's receiving playing time their rookie years despite their clearcut role as a backup:1) First off, I think back to Eli Manning's rookie year. Kurt Warner was playing well and the Giants were playing competitve football. Still, Coughlin waited for Warner to make just one minor mistake before giving Eli the football. That was an extreme example, because the Giants actually tanked the second half of the season in order to get Eli the experience he needed. 2) When Mike Vick was a rookie in 2001, Dan Reeves would give bring him off the bench for 1-2 series at a time to expose him to the rigors of the NFL. Vick cut into Chris Chandlers playing time just enough so that he wouldnt be a succesful Fantasy QB. Vick had 1100 total yards, while Chandler had ~3000 total yards. When QB's are drafted high, it never surprises me if they get sporadic playing time during their rookie year to get upto speed. Obviosuly this doesnt apply to all rookie QB's (Philip Rivers comes to mind), but its something to take into consideration.

Did you even read the quotes I posted? if any of you are confident that Cutler will start more than 1 game (possibly week 17) this year outside the outlined circumstances above.... step forward. I'll be more than happy to take your money.

Did YOU read one word I said? I NEVER said Cutler was going to start a game. I said he will see some sporadic action during the year (injury, blowout, tough outing, etc). If you wouldnt be so argumentative, youd see that we pretty much agree on every point.

Cutler may see some PT, but not enough to significantly effect Plummers FF numbers. Cutler should be a non-issue with regards to Plummers projections for 2006.

FWIW, just grabbed Plummer in the ninth round. Just to clarify, I like the guy too; Im just more conscious (worried) about his potential pitfalls.

 

[moleculo]

FWIW, just grabbed Plummer in the ninth round. Just to clarify, I like the guy too; Im just more conscious (worried) about his potential pitfalls.

Cool. in terms of full disclosure, I have Plummer in two leagues and Cutler in a dynasty. I drafted Plummer in the 10th in one (drafted McNabb earlier), don't remember where in the other - I think it was the 7th or 8th round (14 team league).

 

[shutupayaface]

From draft sharks email

"QB Jay Cutler, Broncos: His 108.3 passer rating led all QBs with at least 50 exhibition pass attempts. And he faced a lot of 1st-stringers, too. Broncos CB Champ Bailey has something to say about the Vanderbilt grad every week, as if he's hinting something to Mike Shanahan. "He's rare because of that poise," Bailey said Wednesday. "He can throw interceptions and just shrug it off. Not all quarterbacks can do that. He just doesn't seem to care. He just goes back out there and makes plays." Cutler not only beat out Brad Van Pelt (who's a good QB), he sent him packing. How safe is Jake Plummer? It depends on wins and losses. You scan the Broncos' first 8 games and decide for yourself: @ St. Louis, vs. Kansas City, @ New England, vs. Baltimore, vs. Oakland, @ Cleveland, vs. Indianapolis, @ Pittsburgh."

 

[jonessed]

From draft sharks email"QB Jay Cutler, Broncos: His 108.3 passer rating led all QBs with at least 50 exhibition pass attempts. And he faced a lot of 1st-stringers, too. Broncos CB Champ Bailey has something to say about the Vanderbilt grad every week, as if he's hinting something to Mike Shanahan. "He's rare because of that poise," Bailey said Wednesday. "He can throw interceptions and just shrug it off. Not all quarterbacks can do that. He just doesn't seem to care. He just goes back out there and makes plays." Cutler not only beat out Brad Van Pelt (who's a good QB), he sent him packing. How safe is Jake Plummer? It depends on wins and losses. You scan the Broncos' first 8 games and decide for yourself: @ St. Louis, vs. Kansas City, @ New England, vs. Baltimore, vs. Oakland, @ Cleveland, vs. Indianapolis, @ Pittsburgh."

Plummer has been a stellar QB for Denver. It just doesn't make sense to throw a rookie in there when you are trying to make a run for the SB. Had it not been for Brees' injury I'm sure he would have been the QB for SD this year for the same reason. Even given how high the Chargers' management has been on Rivers. I don't care how good Cutler's looked during the preseason. Plummer would have to bellyflop to get removed from the starting lineup.

 

[msommer]

Cutler may see some PT, but not enough to significantly effect Plummers FF numbers. Cutler should be a non-issue with regards to Plummers projections for 2006.

If anything, Cutler seeing action should HELP Plummer. If Cutler's in the game, odds are Denver's leading by 21 or more... and if Denver's leading by 21 or more, odds are Plummer already has at least a pair of scores.

Also, if Denver is up by 21 points - the stats quoted earlier inthe thread clearly indicate that in this situation Jake hands off the ball to the RB - any addtl stats are likely to be minimal, keep the drive alive type yardage

 

[moleculo]

From draft sharks email"QB Jay Cutler, Broncos: His 108.3 passer rating led all QBs with at least 50 exhibition pass attempts. And he faced a lot of 1st-stringers, too. Broncos CB Champ Bailey has something to say about the Vanderbilt grad every week, as if he's hinting something to Mike Shanahan. "He's rare because of that poise," Bailey said Wednesday. "He can throw interceptions and just shrug it off. Not all quarterbacks can do that. He just doesn't seem to care. He just goes back out there and makes plays." Cutler not only beat out Brad Van Pelt (who's a good QB), he sent him packing. How safe is Jake Plummer? It depends on wins and losses. You scan the Broncos' first 8 games and decide for yourself: @ St. Louis, vs. Kansas City, @ New England, vs. Baltimore, vs. Oakland, @ Cleveland, vs. Indianapolis, @ Pittsburgh."

don't believe the nay-sayers. Barring injury, Cutler will not see significant PT in 2006.

 

[SSOG]

From draft sharks email"QB Jay Cutler, Broncos: His 108.3 passer rating led all QBs with at least 50 exhibition pass attempts. And he faced a lot of 1st-stringers, too. Broncos CB Champ Bailey has something to say about the Vanderbilt grad every week, as if he's hinting something to Mike Shanahan. "He's rare because of that poise," Bailey said Wednesday. "He can throw interceptions and just shrug it off. Not all quarterbacks can do that. He just doesn't seem to care. He just goes back out there and makes plays." Cutler not only beat out Brad Van Pelt (who's a good QB), he sent him packing. How safe is Jake Plummer? It depends on wins and losses. You scan the Broncos' first 8 games and decide for yourself: @ St. Louis, vs. Kansas City, @ New England, vs. Baltimore, vs. Oakland, @ Cleveland, vs. Indianapolis, @ Pittsburgh."

You know that compliment that Bailey gives Cutler? The whole "he can throw interceptions and just shrug it off"? You want to know what Shanahan says Plummer's biggest strength is? Yup, you guessed it- the ability to throw ints and just shrug them off.Also, at calling Van Pelt a good QB. He was a very late 7th rounder. His career numbers? 2 of 8 for 7 yards, with a whopping .9 yards per attempt. He's probably the worst passer in the entire NFL. He's a poor man's Kordell Stewart- and who would want a poor-man's Kordell Stewart when the original Kordell Stewart is just sitting out there for anyone to have?Also, Cutler didn't face "a lot of 1st-stringers". He faced SOME first stringers. I'd say less than half of his time was against the first string. That email was a whole lot of spin, and not a whole lot of substance.

 

[moleculo]

57 posts, and no one has mentioned the word "revert" as in, "Plummer will revert to his interception throwing ways..." Way to go, FBG's, I salute you.

I still don't understand what is pushing Plummer's ADP so low. The only arguement made against him this far is that the Broncos drafted Cutler. Surely someone out there thinks Plummer just plain sucks?

 

[SaintArnold]

57 posts, and no one has mentioned the word "revert" as in, "Plummer will revert to his interception throwing ways..." Way to go, FBG's, I salute you.

I still don't understand what is pushing Plummer's ADP so low. The only arguement made against him this far is that the Broncos drafted Cutler. Surely someone out there thinks Plummer just plain sucks?

I think you answered your own question. Jake has a bad rep that he cannot shake. Last year was impressive, but as recently as two years ago he was still making some serious mistakes. I think the AFC championship game confirmed many people's opinions. This may be the year, though, when Plummer puts up big numbers (2004) thanks to improved receivers *and* limits mistakes due to playing from the lead (2005). If that happens, I think his time as ADP cellar dweller will end. But until then, I'm going to ride him just as I did the last 2 years.

 

[doughboydeluxe]

57 posts, and no one has mentioned the word "revert" as in, "Plummer will revert to his interception throwing ways..." Way to go, FBG's, I salute you.

I still don't understand what is pushing Plummer's ADP so low. The only arguement made against him this far is that the Broncos drafted Cutler. Surely someone out there thinks Plummer just plain sucks?

People tend to draft based off of last years stats. Plummer was the #11 QB last year. If people move McNabb, Bulger, and Culpepper ahead of him that puts him at #14. It's easy for people to use last year's stats as a basis for this year's projections, so his ADP doesn't really surprise me.

 

[Gr00vus]

I've got to decide between Plummer and Vick this week. Rushing td's are worth more than passing ones, that's the only reason I'm struggling with this decision.

I think the Bronco running game looks the shakiest it has in a very long time, and I think that means the passing game is going to have to pick up some of the slack if the Broncos are going to continue to be upper half offense. Obviously that means Plummer should pick it up over last season, if he can handle it. He potentially has the best set of weapons in the passing game he's ever had while in Denver - if Walker is 100% and the rookies (Sheffler, Marshall) can hang with the pros. He also gets to play 3 defenses twice in his division that have been soft in the passing game - although I think the Chargers will make strides in that area this season.

Should be a good year for Jake, could be a very good year. He could be a common element among successful/championship FF rosters this season.

 

[mr. furley]

jeebus.

will EVERY rookie drafted higher than the 4th round push out the incumbent at their position?

that seems to be the SP's general consensus

 

[Banger]

He potentially has the best set of weapons in the passing game he's ever had while in Denver - if Walker is 100% and the rookies (Sheffler, Marshall) can hang with the pros.

any idea how Marshall is progressing? I know he had/has a knee injury but I thought I read that he might be ready by the end of training camp....I was kind of surprised that they cut Watts but perhaps that was due to the emergence of Marshall (other backup wr's).

 

[Gr00vus]

He potentially has the best set of weapons in the passing game he's ever had while in Denver - if Walker is 100% and the rookies (Sheffler, Marshall) can hang with the pros.

any idea how Marshall is progressing? I know he had/has a knee injury but I thought I read that he might be ready by the end of training camp....I was kind of surprised that they cut Watts but perhaps that was due to the emergence of Marshall (other backup wr's).

The Bronco insider members of the board can give you better insight here, but from all I saw from Marshall while he was playing in camp was that he was really impressive and they might have themselves a player.As for Watts, I had the argument last year and people didn't want to hear it, but the bottom line is he's got a physical impediment with his hand that makes him unable to catch the ball consistently enough to be a viable NFL receiver. It's sad because he's achieved quite a bit in the face of that, but that's the reality of the situation, and it was time for the Broncos to face up to it, which they did.

 

[moleculo]

He potentially has the best set of weapons in the passing game he's ever had while in Denver - if Walker is 100% and the rookies (Sheffler, Marshall) can hang with the pros.

any idea how Marshall is progressing? I know he had/has a knee injury but I thought I read that he might be ready by the end of training camp....I was kind of surprised that they cut Watts but perhaps that was due to the emergence of Marshall (other backup wr's).

The Bronco insider members of the board can give you better insight here, but from all I saw from Marshall while he was playing in camp was that he was really impressive and they might have themselves a player.As for Watts, I had the argument last year and people didn't want to hear it, but the bottom line is he's got a physical impediment with his hand that makes him unable to catch the ball consistently enough to be a viable NFL receiver. It's sad because he's achieved quite a bit in the face of that, but that's the reality of the situation, and it was time for the Broncos to face up to it, which they did.

Marshall hasn't played since he hurt his knee...it's been pretty quiet out of Dove Valley since then on him...He made the team, so he's got that going for him.

 

[Native]

Jake has had better days.

 

[moleculo]

Jake has had better days.

understatement. Let's not overreact here though. The first week is always a little off - usually the defense is ahead of the offense, and Denver never rarely well in a dome. I think a little of both effects were in play today.I definately did not like the shovel pass, and I did not like the picks. BTW: in my estimation, at least two sacks were caused by blown blocks by the RBs - both Bells were at fault.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Plummer frigging killed me today. Had I started Vick, I'd be down 5 points with Fitzgerald and Driver still playing - as it is, I'm down 22 and need 3 TDs minimum between those two to win.

 

[njxbean]

Plummer frigging killed me today. Had I started Vick, I'd be down 5 points with Fitzgerald and Driver still playing - as it is, I'm down 22 and need 3 TDs minimum between those two to win.

same here... i hate plummer.. gav ehim the benefit of the doubt..... but no. he killed me. he sucks!

 

[Marc Levin]

Plummer frigging killed me today. Had I started Vick, I'd be down 5 points with Fitzgerald and Driver still playing - as it is, I'm down 22 and need 3 TDs minimum between those two to win.

same here... i hate plummer.. gav ehim the benefit of the doubt..... but no. he killed me. he sucks!

You are both having serious one-week knee jerk reactions.Plummer is far from "suck" either in fantasy or NFL terms based on his recent history with the donkeys.Vick, is a HIGHLY inconsistent QB - both NFL and fantasy. If you start him the next three weeks, I am willing to bet you Plummer outscores him two of those three weeks, and you will say Vick "sucks" Neither suck just because YOU made the choice this week to start Plummer over Vick. Except for the two games last year, Vick has had an EXCELLENT fantasy history against Carolina.Even so, Plummer is usually an excellent fantasy option, so he doesn't suck just because you used him on one of his bad days.