The Denver Broncos passing game, help me break it down (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Let's try and deal in what we know vs the mystery part.

2009: Denver ranks 9th in pass attmepts, 13th in pass yds, 16th in Tds.

I maintain that McDaniels is not hard to figure out. Tebow is the future but I don't think Tebow will see the field the 1st half of the season. Kyle Orton will be running the show unless he really flops the 1st 4-5 weeks of the season. Marshall and his 101/1120/10 are gone. I'm wondering how we see the breakdown.

WRs caught about 220 balls last year, TEs 60 but Scheffler is gone and Graham is not a pass catching TE, wasn't in NE, still not in Denver but McDaniels like to use him. That's 280 balls, and I don't think they can all go to the RBs on this team.

Thomas last night after having x-rays done sent a twitter out that says he is "sad." That can't be good for a rookie that needs reps, just speculation on my part but it has to set him back as a rookie.

Eddie Royal IMO proved last year that he is not much more than a possession WR that is going to avg about 10 ypc give or take a smidge. Marshall only avg 11 ypc so anything is possible but Royal is not Marshall and I won't debate the relevance of the two of them head to head.

So I start going down this list and I see Jabar Gaffney but he has been in the league like 8 years and never had more than he had last season in Denver. He started in place of Marshall the final 2 games of the year and had big numbers but are we to believe that he has been kept a secret form the NFL for the last 8 years?

I'm running out of bodies here. Someone though is going to post very respectable numbers, wanted to get the board's opinion of who they think is the front runner is, and if you can post approximate projections that would be great.

Thanks,

MOP

 

[DawnBTVS]

I like Gaffney as a WR3/WR4 selection type sleeper. People forget that situation often makes or breaks a WR as much as talent does and he's largely considered the WR1 going into the season for Denver (depending on how quickly Thomas becomes a factor).

Plays on a Houston team from 2002-2005 with a bad O-Line and poor to average QB play. Heads to New England in 2006 and is forced behind Troy Brown and Reche Caldwell who are the starters. 2007 comes and in come Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth. 2008 he's still stuck behind Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

Then in 2009 he lands in Denver. There, he's largely stuck behind Brandon Marshall as the go to receiver. Faced with less competition and inserted at the WR2 spot, he almost puts up a career high in catches and YPC while getting a career high in yards.

The final 2 games (no Marshall in the last game) he put up 21 catches. In 8 other games, he had at least 3 catches. Not surprising given that he was WR2 and Marshall got 100+ catches on the year, with Orton admitting he locked onto Marshall at times.

 

[footballsavvy]

Not that I'm relying on him as my Week 1 starter, but I do have Demaryius and would like some elaboration on the x-ray comment you just made...

As far as who will be starting... well my guess would be Gafney and Stokley with McKinley rotating in and Royal in the slot. That is, until the two rookies are up to speed and healthy... then all bets are off.

 

[Buffaloes]

This is going to be a situation worth paying attention to for the duration of the offseason.

My initial thoughts are:

Gaffney has a starting spot locked down. McDaniels really likes him and he had 2 nice games to close out 2009.

Royal has been getting a lot of reps out of the slot (where he belongs) and should also be a starter as McDaniels seems to prefer 3 WR sets. I don't expect another 90 catch year but I'm not expecting anything as bad as last year either.

Thomas has an uphill battle right now. He's rehabbing his foot, coming from a team that limited his routes. He really needs reps but he's obviously not getting them yet. He'll likely start out pretty slow hopefully picking it up as the season wears on. He's probably already the best (only?) deep threat on the roster.

Decker is an intriguing guy. Really seems like a McCaffrey-type WR (not just because he's white). I caught a few Gopher games the pastfew years and he was the bright spot in that offense. Very good rout runner, very good hands, okay athleticism. He's a sleeper for a starting position. Problem is, he's coming off a lisfranc injury and is rehabbing his foot too. If he can get back on the field anytime soon, I think he can make an impact his rookie year.

Brandon Lloyd is as enigmatic as ever. He looked good when he got on the field though and may stay on as a depth guy.

The slot guys:

Kenny McKinley was drafted in the midrounds (5th IIRC) in 2009. He's rail-thin but Spurrier said he's the best WR he ever coached in NCAA. He's a slot-type WR though. He didn't do much last year and this team seems to have a logjam at the slot WR position. Maybe he wows in training camp. I doubt it though. Probably a candidate for KR/PR and the occasional spread set.

Brandon Stokely has been mentoring Decker and should carve out another role for himself this year. His best years are behind him though.

Marquez Branson is an undersized TE who will take the place of Scheffler. He made enough of an impression on the practice squad for the team to pass on TEs this offseason but I don't think he plays a huge role.

That's 7 WRs and a TE. Remember those years Brady spread the ball without a true #1 WR? David Givens, Deiion Branch, et al....Well, I'm thinking this is going to be a similar situation. Maybe Orton/Quinn/Tebow find their guy. Maybe Bay Bay really lights the league on fire. My initial guess (this being May it may change) is the ball is spread and none of these guys turns into anything more than a WR3 for fantasy purposes.

ETA: I omitted TEs Dan Graham and Richard Quinn as they are blocker first and likely won't make a huge fantasy impact this year.

 

[bonesman]

Not that I'm relying on him as my Week 1 starter, but I do have Demaryius and would like some elaboration on the x-ray comment you just made...

Not much to elaborate on :# Sad about 14 hours ago via twidroid# Bout 2 get some xrays! about 22 hours ago via twidroid# Working hard out here in denver... 5:58 PM May 19th via web Doesn't sound like he got good news about his foot.

 

[Warpig]

To sum it all up...

:X

 

[Two Deep]

Eddie Royal is quick, elusive, has good hands and extremely strong for his size. I see no reason why he can't excell in the slot. I'm convinced Eddie will be the best and most consistent receiver on the Bronco's for 2010.

83-950-7tds

 

[Ministry of Pain]

None of this is really blowing my skirt up boys.

Orton is still in place, McDaniels will continue with his same offense. Can anyone project the outcome for Thomas, Gaffney, and Royal? They seem like the 3 most likely candidates, no?

 

[Steed]

Not that I'm relying on him as my Week 1 starter, but I do have Demaryius and would like some elaboration on the x-ray comment you just made...

Not much to elaborate on :# Sad about 14 hours ago via twidroid# Bout 2 get some xrays! about 22 hours ago via twidroid# Working hard out here in denver... 5:58 PM May 19th via web Doesn't sound like he got good news about his foot.

Looks like he erased those comments.

 

[Buffaloes]

None of this is really blowing my skirt up boys.

Orton is still in place, McDaniels will continue with his same offense. Can anyone project the outcome for Thomas, Gaffney, and Royal? They seem like the 3 most likely candidates, no?

Orton is still in place for now. I think he hangs on to the starting gig for the year but McDaniels isn't so sure. He said as much yesterday. McDaniels may continue to run the same offense although he has already said he plans on tweaking the offense...adding more 2 back sets, etc...

As far as projections, it's way too early. Royal and Gaffney will likely start in 3 WR sets with Thomas likely joining them at some point. I tend to think Bay Bay will start immediately but it depends on his foot and his learning. Even if he does start, we don't know how well he will apadt to a new offense that requires him to do much more than he did in college. The WR corps is a work in progress and I'm sure the offense evolves a bit with the departure of Marshall. That said, it's just too early to state definitively what role each WR is going to play.

 

[bonesman]

Not that I'm relying on him as my Week 1 starter, but I do have Demaryius and would like some elaboration on the x-ray comment you just made...

Not much to elaborate on :# Sad about 14 hours ago via twidroid# Bout 2 get some xrays! about 22 hours ago via twidroid# Working hard out here in denver... 5:58 PM May 19th via web Doesn't sound like he got good news about his foot.

Looks like he erased those comments.

On orders from the staff ya think?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

To sum it all up...

What he said....

 

[Ministry of Pain]

To sum it all up...

What he said....

I don't think so. I'm not a big McDaniels fan but he can put an offense together. He's efficient. When we say throw up, are we trying to say less than 3,000 yds passing? Every WR has 3/38 in the box on Monday...what?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

If Thomas isn't 'sad' because of a setback to his foot then I think people are sleeping on him bigtime. He was the #22 pick, and the Broncos have said "he won't be brought along slowly."

 

[WayzUpUSC]

I don't see the genius in McDaniels that others see. Average at best QBs, average at best RBs, average at best WRs, a bunch of blocking TE's......what is there to like? I might take Prater as a #2 kicker

 

[Lord Fantasy]

I think it's interesting that WRs caught 220 balls and Marshall was responsible for 101 of them (and let's not forget the 21 he caught in one game!). I think the barf face refers to the fact that there's no one (on paper at least) who seems like they could even BEGIN to replace those numbers.

Putting on your defensive coordinator hat, who haunts your game plan nightmares when you look at the Broncos depth chart?

So if they do win games, it will be because of a McDaniels' system mojo (plus maybe a Moreno leap forward?). I'm not saying he can't squeeze maximum awesomeness out of solid but unexciting talent, but the end result may be very frustrating for fantasy owners.

 

[Warpig]

To sum it all up...

What he said....

I don't think so. I'm not a big McDaniels fan but he can put an offense together. He's efficient. When we say throw up, are we trying to say less than 3,000 yds passing? Every WR has 3/38 in the box on Monday...what?

First of all, I don't think McDaniels has proven anything as a HC other than how to bungle a team and flush what started as a promising season down the toilet. I will in no way give him credit for anything he did while "OC" in NE. Everyone knows Belicheck runs the show out there.But to get back to my " :X " statement...what I mean is that I don't see how a HC can feel comfortable (or in his case, arrogant) enough to roll into a season with Jabar Gaffney as your #1, a rookie as your 1a/2, and what appears to be an explosive slot receiver that has fallen out of favor with McDaniels in Royal. On paper this has got to be one of the ugliest receiving corps in the league. Fortunately for them they play in one of the weakest divisions. But I assume that there won't really be a #1 guy to have from this team (as McDaniels has stated with "having multiple #1s"). You'll probably see alot of 3/38 (as you mention) or 6/70 types of lines with TD's seemingly few and far between.I suspect that even the backs (Moreno/Buckhalter) will end up with a decent amount of receps.So, I reiterate... :X

 

[bonesman]

If Thomas isn't 'sad' because of a setback to his foot then I think people are sleeping on him bigtime. He was the #22 pick, and the Broncos have said "he won't be brought along slowly."

Really? Where do you think he should be ranked then?

Seems to me his consensus rookie ranking is 5 or 6.

Perhaps you're talking about startup dynasty drafts or something.

(PS: Wasn't Ashly Lelie a higher first round selection? )

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This is 2010 redraft guys, not dynasty.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

This is 2010 redraft guys, not dynasty.

I know. I was saying that if he's healthy Thomas is a #2 or #3 FF WR straight out of the gate. YMMV

 

[Raiderfan32904]

:X about the Broncos passing attack in 2010, for a lot of the same logical reasons stated above. Disclaimer is I am a Raiders fan, so I am going to be biased.

Still, The Broncos look unsettled at QB, with the incumbent Orton rumored on the trading block and his jersey on sale for $20 at NFL.com.

The Tebow circus is going to be such a distraction and it is only time before a slow start will bring out the cries from Denver faithful to bring Tebow off the bench and see what he can do.

This atmosphere combined with possibly the weakest WR corps, and egomaniac fool coach, makes me :X when I think about expectations fantasy wise.

Well as a Raider fan, it makes me

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I know it is difficult to draw hard and fast conclusions from the previous year's stats, but something has to give with all of the changes. Last year, Orton, threw for a shade over 3,800 yards and 21 TDs. I think that is a reasonable place to start for this season (even with the loss of Marshall and Scheffler). Last season, the backs had nearly 500 receiving yards and two scores. If they repeat, it is not a surprise. That leaves 3,300 yards and 19TDs for the WRs and TEs.

At TE, gone is the pass-receiving Tony Scheffler with Daniel Graham remaining. Scheffler had 31/416/2 while Graham had 28/289/1. If Graham, who is known for his blocking, can get 45/450/5, it will be a good year.

If these numbers are remotely close, this leaves approx 2,850 yards and 14 TDs to divvy up amongst the WRs. That is an awfully big pie to split among: Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Brandon Stokely, and others. Thomas and Decker are still recovering from nasty injuries and I think they will be very much slowed to begin the season. It takes rookies time as it is, but the injuries make things worse. I am expecting Thomas to only have 500-600 receiving yards tops and Decker half that amount unless Stokely is injured AGAIN. This leaves a lot of yards and TDs to split between Gaffney and Royal. For reference, the Bronco WRs totaled 2,641 yards and 16 TDs last year with Marshall dominating. It is very difficult for me to imagine a scenario where Denver does not have a WR get 800+ yards and 7+ TDs. After the strong showing the last two games of the season, I think it is Gaffney. I could actually see Gaffney hit 1,000 yards. He did have 282 yards and two scores in the last two games of the season. Either he or Royal will have a decent season.

I will throw out the caveat that without Marshall and Scheffler, we do not have a good handle on where the extra targets will go. The above is just my take on what I think can/will happen.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Take it for whatever you think it's worth... from the Denver Post:

Demaryius Thomas and his broken foot were all a-Twitter and then - poof! - the tweets disappeared according to Mike Klis of the Denver Post. Thomas, the Broncos' first draft pick and No. 22 overall last month, wrote on his Twitter account Monday: "Bout 2 to get some xrays!" than a couple of hours later, Thomas tweeted: "Sad." By Wednesday, those messages were removed from his Twitter account, Thomas' back-to-back tweets, and the subsequent removal of them, immediately raised reminders of the risks involved in using a first-round draft pick on a receiver with a broken foot. Thomas has been sidelined since breaking the fifth metatarsal in his left foot while training for the NFL scouting combine in February. But a Broncos source said that upon closer inspection, the tweets were several hours apart and unrelated, the team had no official comment, but the source said, "I can assure you 100 percent that there was nothing 'sad' about his recent X-rays and that once Thomas realized his Twitter followers would connect one message with the next, the rookie receiver decided to remove the messages."

 

[Buffaloes]

Thomas not available until Training Camp per Rotoworld...looks like they used the above DP report as their source.

Demaryius Thomas-WR- Broncos May. 28 - 8:38 am etCoach Josh McDaniels is now targeting training camp for first-round pick Demaryius Thomas' (foot) return.Thomas caused a mini-stir earlier in the week when he followed up a Twitter post about going for x-rays with a one-word response: "Sad." He insists the two tweets were unrelated. A Broncos source replied, "I can assure you 100 percent that there was nothing 'sad' about his recent X-rays." The fact remains, however, that Thomas is behind schedule. He was originally expected to return for OTAs. It's time to reel in expectations for September.Source: Denver Post

 

[moleculo]

One sleeper worth mentioning: Brandon Lloyd.

From the Denver Post:

Brandon Lloyd the go-to receiver at Broncos camp

By Jeff Legwold

The Denver Post

Posted: 05/28/2010 01:00:00 AM MDT

Wide receiver Brandon Lloyd was the target of choice Thursday at passing camp, hooking up with Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn on several big plays.

With Brandon Marshall's trade, coach Josh McDaniels has consistently mentioned Lloyd as an alternative in the passing game. He had four catches for 95 yards in last year's season finale against Kansas City, when Marshall was benched by McDaniels.

"I'm going to come out here and play like I've played the last eight years in the NFL and just leave it at that," Lloyd said. "This year, we should get the opportunity to thrive at what they do best."

Said Orton: "Brandon's had a great camp."

Obviously, the guy has never done anything significant in the league, but he's only 28, and the field is open. I'm not sure how to divvy up any of the targets and frankly, anyone who gives a definitive answer is guessing. But, Brandon Lloyd seems like he could definitely be worth a late round flyer, and someone to keep an eye on.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Thomas not available until Training Camp per Rotoworld...looks like they used the above DP report as their source.

Demaryius Thomas-WR- Broncos May. 28 - 8:38 am etCoach Josh McDaniels is now targeting training camp for first-round pick Demaryius Thomas' (foot) return.Thomas caused a mini-stir earlier in the week when he followed up a Twitter post about going for x-rays with a one-word response: "Sad." He insists the two tweets were unrelated. A Broncos source replied, "I can assure you 100 percent that there was nothing 'sad' about his recent X-rays." The fact remains, however, that Thomas is behind schedule. He was originally expected to return for OTAs. It's time to reel in expectations for September.Source: Denver Post

When has 4 weeks of training camp been enough for any rookie? Crabtree missed training camp last year and he's way more talented than Thomas IMO. We're running out of WRs here. Gaffney has got to be the WR1 going into camp...not saying that's a good thing but by virtue of elimination...could Denver sign someone? Coles? Who is out there?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

One sleeper worth mentioning: Brandon Lloyd.

From the Denver Post:

Brandon Lloyd the go-to receiver at Broncos camp

By Jeff Legwold

The Denver Post

Posted: 05/28/2010 01:00:00 AM MDT

Wide receiver Brandon Lloyd was the target of choice Thursday at passing camp, hooking up with Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn on several big plays.

With Brandon Marshall's trade, coach Josh McDaniels has consistently mentioned Lloyd as an alternative in the passing game. He had four catches for 95 yards in last year's season finale against Kansas City, when Marshall was benched by McDaniels.

"I'm going to come out here and play like I've played the last eight years in the NFL and just leave it at that," Lloyd said. "This year, we should get the opportunity to thrive at what they do best."

Said Orton: "Brandon's had a great camp."

Obviously, the guy has never done anything significant in the league, but he's only 28, and the field is open. I'm not sure how to divvy up any of the targets and frankly, anyone who gives a definitive answer is guessing. But, Brandon Lloyd seems like he could definitely be worth a late round flyer, and someone to keep an eye on.

No way Lloyd leap frog's Gaffney. JG has been with JM in NE and now in Denver, he had 2 blistering games to clsoe the season last year in place of Marshall. Lloyd could settle in at the WR3 slot perhaps but I don't see him taking Gaffney's job right now.

 

[The Ref]

I have Royal down as an early PPR sleeper for 2010. He may not have may TD, but I think 90-100 Rec is a real posibility.

 

[The Captain]

I have Royal down as an early PPR sleeper for 2010. He may not have may TD, but I think 90-100 Rec is a real posibility.

From your mouth to God's (McDaniels) ear. Whatching Royal two years ago, I thought this guy would be a perennial top 10 PPR WR. The moves he made in that season opener against Oakland were unlike anything I'd seen from a rookie WR in a long, long time.I don't know what happened last year, but the guy looked nothing like he did as a rookie. Was it the new system? New QB? New coach? Or is he Michael Clayton part deux?

 

[DawnBTVS]

I don't know what happened last year, but the guy looked nothing like he did as a rookie. Was it the new system? New QB? New coach? Or is he Michael Clayton part deux?

Several issues...1: Royal was also serving as the main return man, thus dividing his time (and energy) in being able to constantly be in on WR sets. Denver has signed a ton of guys with experience returning kicks in an effort to allow Royal to focus more on being a receiver.2: The offensive line was injured about midway through the season. Most of the deep passes were nixed as a result (including when Simms came in) so Royal's deep threat ability virtually disappeared and Marshall was already the short yard go to guy.3: McDaniels has stated he wants to move Royal around more and admitted that one of his mistakes last year was that he didn't do a good enough job of getting Royal moved around creating better match ups.4: The general lack of separation by most of the receivers. We FF owners forget that between the speed, YAC ability, and depth chart placement is that a WR has to get open with space. Most of the Broncos receivers, including Royal, struggled with getting adequate separation from opposing defenders thus forcing Orton to either throw short or make throws where the receiver was almost instantly tackled.5: New System. This gets forgotten but McDaniels put up good numbers in an offense that was completely new to almost everybody. They had a new free agent QB running it (who has to build rapports with his receivers), a rookie RB getting acclimated to NFL speed, and a mixture of free agent receivers and in-house talent.

 

[Buffaloes]

2: The offensive line was injured about midway through the season. Most of the deep passes were nixed as a result (including when Simms came in) so Royal's deep threat ability virtually disappeared and Marshall was already the short yard go to guy.

I agree with the list except for this. People see Royal as a speed guy and assume he's a deep threat. He's not. He put up pedestrain YPC even with Cannonball Cutler slinging it the year before. He'll fit better as an underneath slot guy a la Welker. I'll add that Royal was dinged with neck, concussion and I think an ankle injury last year too.

 

[baconisgood]

If these numbers are remotely close, this leaves approx 2,850 yards and 14 TDs to divvy up amongst the WRs. That is an awfully big pie to split among: Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Brandon Stokely, and others. Thomas and Decker are still recovering from nasty injuries and I think they will be very much slowed to begin the season. It takes rookies time as it is, but the injuries make things worse. I am expecting Thomas to only have 500-600 receiving yards tops and Decker half that amount unless Stokely is injured AGAIN. This leaves a lot of yards and TDs to split between Gaffney and Royal. For reference, the Bronco WRs totaled 2,641 yards and 16 TDs last year with Marshall dominating. It is very difficult for me to imagine a scenario where Denver does not have a WR get 800+ yards and 7+ TDs. After the strong showing the last two games of the season, I think it is Gaffney. I could actually see Gaffney hit 1,000 yards. He did have 282 yards and two scores in the last two games of the season. Either he or Royal will have a decent season.

I think it would be among the more unlikely events in the NFL this year if Gaffney hit 1,000/7. He has broken 2 TDs in a season once in a year in which his QB threw 50. Hes 30 and has been in a variety of situations and has not been able to beat out guys like a 35 year old Troy Brown or Reche Caldwell, and put up fantasy numbers similar to Corey Bradford when in Houston. His 282/2 the last two games of last year look more like a mirage of a huge game coming against one of the worst Ds in the league that happened to occur next to a 2 TD game (the only TDs he had all year). If I was forced to choose Royal looks like a better bet, but I think most likely we should assume that the losses of Marshall and Scheffler will mean Den passes for <3,500 yards next year.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

One sleeper worth mentioning: Brandon Lloyd.

Brandon Lloyd a sleeper? Fell asleep on him many moons ago. LOL If that is the hope of assembling a competent WR corp with Jabbar Gaffney as the defacto #1, Royal your slot guy, no Marshall, and you now don't have Sheffler at TE. I know that Denver's passing stats weren't bad last year, but I don't believe that someone will just magically fill in the receiving yards voided by the offseason losses.C'mon, Denver, please tell me that plan B is not Brandon Lloyd. :X