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The Great (QB) Reset. BIG implications? (1 Viewer)

Soulfly3

Soulfly3

Footballguy
Yes, the Browns just paid. A lot. A guaranteed contract never before seen in the NFL (and not just a minor bump on the prior)

That being said, was part of the plan to also hamper SEVERAL afc (and nfc) clubs, including 2 in their own division? CIN and BAL both have 2 stud QBs due to be paid soon, 1 of them very soon. Herbert out there. Kyler. Et al. 

how "bad" is this overpay, really, when the bar's been completely reset and you're coasting for the next 5yrs?

looking big picture here. Yes, EVERY new qb deal resets the market, but this absolutely smashed it. 

 
I think the fact that Watson achieved this with his current “outside of football” situation(s) is the most concerning part of record setting deal. 

 
The AFC vs NFC imbalance is ridiculous right now. I think the next big question is what the Colts will do.

Matt Ryan, Baker, Mariotta, Garapolo, and Jordan Love could all find new teams at this point. Weak draft class for QBs. Not sure where this is going to end.

I thought Seattle may pack it in and rebuild, but they could take a swing in the relatively easy NFC too (their division is still tough).

Dallas hasn't really added anything in the weak NFC East. They've gotten worse and are getting hit for $16mm against the cap for Zeke? They're going to miss their window if they don't retool somehow.

 
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Desert_Power said:
The AFC vs NFC imbalance is ridiculous right now. I think the next big question is what the Colts will do.

Matt Ryan, Baker, Mariotta, Garapolo, and Jordan Love could all find new teams at this point. Weak draft class for QBs. Not sure where this is going to end.

I thought Seattle may pack it in and rebuild, but they could take a swing in the relatively easy NFC too (their division is still tough).

Dallas hasn't really added anything in the weak NFC East. They've gotten worse and are getting hit for $16mm against the cap? They're going to miss their window if they don't retool somehow.
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Agreed the imbalance is unlike any I can ever recall. The Dolphins are like the 12th best team in the AFC and they are pretty good and would make the playoffs in the NFC. 

 
Desert_Power said:
The AFC vs NFC imbalance is ridiculous right now. I think the next big question is what the Colts will do.

Matt Ryan, Baker, Mariotta, Garapolo, and Jordan Love could all find new teams at this point. Weak draft class for QBs. Not sure where this is going to end.

I thought Seattle may pack it in and rebuild, but they could take a swing in the relatively easy NFC too (their division is still tough).

Dallas hasn't really added anything in the weak NFC East. They've gotten worse and are getting hit for $16mm against the cap? They're going to miss their window if they don't retool somehow.
Click to expand...
Is it though? The Rams haven't lost anything too important, the 49ers are likely upgrading at QB, the Bucs should be healthier in the playoffs. Those are arguably the 3 best teams in the NFL right now. The AFC has more depth, but I think the NFC is likely better at the top, and its possible GB's Adams loss is overrated, or that the Cardinals take another step forward with Hopkins back. 

If I had to guess, I'd say Ryan and Love stay put. Mayfield ends up in Seattle, Jimmy G in Indy, and Mariota as a backup somewhere. Winston likely re-signs in NO. 

 
travdogg said:
Is it though? The Rams haven't lost anything too important, the 49ers are likely upgrading at QB, the Bucs should be healthier in the playoffs. Those are arguably the 3 best teams in the NFL right now. The AFC has more depth, but I think the NFC is likely better at the top, and its possible GB's Adams loss is overrated, or that the Cardinals take another step forward with Hopkins back. 

If I had to guess, I'd say Ryan and Love stay put. Mayfield ends up in Seattle, Jimmy G in Indy, and Mariota as a backup somewhere. Winston likely re-signs in NO. 
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I think the Bills and Chiefs are as good as or better than the rams and bucs. Agreed though that the big difference is teams 3-12 is much stronger afc wise. 

 
travdogg said:
Is it though? The Rams haven't lost anything too important, the 49ers are likely upgrading at QB, the Bucs should be healthier in the playoffs. Those are arguably the 3 best teams in the NFL right now.
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Chiefs and Bills are the top 2 vegas odds to win the SB.  I'd say those teams are the top 2.

 
I'd have to say the Bills are the best top-to-bottom team on paper. The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, and you can't count them out of anything. 

The NFC looks weaker to me than it did a month ago, and I thought it was the inferior conference then. 

As far as a reset goes, the deal reflects current thinking in the NFL.

1. When top talent becomes available at QB, sacrifice anything and everything to get it.
2. "Playoff contender" isn't good enough. You either think you have a real chance to win it all with the QB you have, or you're rebuilding.  
3. Teams don't mind being really transparent with their priorities. The 49ers didn't even pretend Garoppolo had a shot to be their future. The Browns courted Watson openly. Same with the Falcons. I know it's a business and it's cold, but Garoppolo, Mayfield and Ryan have all taken their teams to the playoffs and won there. They were treated like a fallback prom date while the real catch was being pursued openly. 

 
not that it is a true indicator of nfl success, but imo, the next 2 draft classes are overall pretty bunk. no stud in sight for me.

 
I feel like the Falcons and the Colts are a match. I don't know what would need to be done to restructure Ryan to get most of his money on the Colts books but when I watch Ryan I see a guy with a fair bit left in the tank if only he wasn't getting destroyed by his OLine. The Colts would be a pretty good team with Ryan and they seemingly have the cap room. I'm not as knowledgeable on what the Colts are trying to run and what Matt does well etc. 

The Falcons just need to tear it down to the nubs and get their cap situation reset, rebuild with picks.  I'm not a college FB/ QB guy but the '23 class of Stroud/Young/Richardson seems like where they should set their sights, no?

 
Deamon said:
Chiefs and Bills are the top 2 vegas odds to win the SB.  I'd say those teams are the top 2.
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I'd bet on Tampa Bay personally. I think they were the best team last year, until they ran out of WRs. When the playoffs came along it was barely healthy Evans and waiver wire guys. Godwin will be back, Gage was added, and Tampa hasn't lost anybody of note. 

I think KC is slightly overrated. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't win the AFC West. 

I will agree the AFC overall is a better conference, but that makes me feel even better about Tampa. The best AFC team that misses the playoffs, would win the NFC East. 

 
Tom Peliserro on Good Morning Football just had this exact convo, and echoed my sentiment EXACTLY, including about Lamar and Burrow.

The Browns changed the QB market on their head, and did so in a way that may look wild today, but may not look so wild when the next 2-3 (and thereafter) big dog contracts come in, and as the cap continues to increase.

 
travdogg said:
I'd bet on Tampa Bay personally. I think they were the best team last year, until they ran out of WRs. When the playoffs came along it was barely healthy Evans and waiver wire guys. Godwin will be back, Gage was added, and Tampa hasn't lost anybody of note. 

I think KC is slightly overrated. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't win the AFC West. 

I will agree the AFC overall is a better conference, but that makes me feel even better about Tampa. The best AFC team that misses the playoffs, would win the NFC East. 
Click to expand...
Plus TB doesn't have to go thru KC/Buf to get to the SB so there path is easier.  Those two have to go thru each other so there is a better chance they get knocked out before even getting to the game.  You can't win what you don't get to.  So I would agree that TB would be my choice because of the easier path to get to the big game.  

 
And it continues...

Ryan to Indy.  

I think a lot of things have drastically shifted in the NFL these past few years, especially when it comes to the cap and analytics (with a sprinkling of coaching change concepts):

1) The best thing to have is a QB on a rookie deal that is a stud from day 1.  Those are few and far between.  If you are going to use a rookie QB you better have a running game, O line, and a decent D if you want to contend.

See: Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow

2) Next best thing is a stud QB on any kind of long contract. Sure, he is eating your cap, but you can keep kicking the cap hit down the road until his wheels fall off.

See: Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Deshawn*, etc

3) Next is the aging veteran former option #2 who is still solid but likely on their 3rd or 4th contract.

See: Brady, Stafford, Cousins, Ryan, etc

4) The rookie contract QB that seems to be "good" but can he be "great"?

(Josh allen was this guy before he moved into the #2 category)

David Mills, Tua, Hurts, Zach Wilson? (he maybe in category 5) etc (Mac Jones may be here for some, and option 1 for pats fans)

5) the raw rookie: Sat year one, looked out of his league early:

Fields, trey lance, Wilson

6) the Journeyman qb.  

Fitzmagic, Jameis,  Jimmy G,  Foles, Tyrod, etc  (I think Carr belongs here, but the raider fans may not)

7) The high capital QB that didn't pan out.  He has talent but something just doesn't click.

Darnold, Goff, Wentz, I guess Baker is here now as well.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Insein said:
Talent trump's trouble. Same as it ever was. 
Click to expand...
No surprise there, just concerning that NFL record contract is awarded to someone in the midst of a controversial legal case. 
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The only other fully guaranteed NFL contract I’m aware of was Cousins’ deal, but he was a true FA at the time so he held all the cards. The irony is that - due to his own misconduct - Watson was the functional equivalent of a true FA and was essentially able to pick his destination and name his price. It would be awesome to have been a fly on the wall during some of these negotiations and internal meetings. I would love to see the Saints/Falcons reaction when the Brows made them cry uncle. 
 

 
Gatorman said:
And it continues...

Ryan to Indy.  

I think a lot of things have drastically shifted in the NFL these past few years, especially when it comes to the cap and analytics (with a sprinkling of coaching change concepts):

1) The best thing to have is a QB on a rookie deal that is a stud from day 1.  Those are few and far between.  If you are going to use a rookie QB you better have a running game, O line, and a decent D if you want to contend.

See: Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow

2) Next best thing is a stud QB on any kind of long contract. Sure, he is eating your cap, but you can keep kicking the cap hit down the road until his wheels fall off.

See: Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Deshawn*, etc

3) Next is the aging veteran former option #2 who is still solid but likely on their 3rd or 4th contract.

See: Brady, Stafford, Cousins, Ryan, etc

4) The rookie contract QB that seems to be "good" but can he be "great"?

(Josh allen was this guy before he moved into the #2 category)

David Mills, Tua, Hurts, Zach Wilson? (he maybe in category 5) etc (Mac Jones may be here for some, and option 1 for pats fans)

5) the raw rookie: Sat year one, looked out of his league early:

Fields, trey lance, Wilson

6) the Journeyman qb.  

Fitzmagic, Jameis,  Jimmy G,  Foles, Tyrod, etc  (I think Carr belongs here, but the raider fans may not)

7) The high capital QB that didn't pan out.  He has talent but something just doesn't click.

Darnold, Goff, Wentz, I guess Baker is here now as well.
Click to expand...
Interesting that Rodgers appears nowhere on this list. 

 
The AFC QB position is crazy.

=======================

Field Yates@FieldYates

AFC starting QBs:

  • Josh Allen
  • Joe Burrow
  • Derek Carr
  • Justin Herbert
  • Lamar Jackson
  • Mac Jones
  • Trevor Lawrence
  • Patrick Mahomes
  • Davis Mills Matt
  • Ryan Tua Tagovailoa
  • Ryan Tannehill
  • Mitch Trubisky
  • Deshaun Watson
  • Russell Wilson
  • Zach Wilson
 
Bracie Smathers said:
The AFC QB position is crazy.

=======================

Field Yates@FieldYates

AFC starting QBs:

  • Josh Allen
  • Joe Burrow
  • Derek Carr
  • Justin Herbert
  • Lamar Jackson
  • Mac Jones
  • Trevor Lawrence
  • Patrick Mahomes
  • Davis Mills
  • Matt Ryan
  • Tua Tagovailoa
  • Ryan Tannehill
  • Mitch Trubisky
  • Deshaun Watson
  • Russell Wilson
  • Zach Wilson
Click to expand...
Trubisky really stands out like a sore thumb there. But yeah, like 14 guys who either fall into the category of solid starter, franchise QB, or potential high upside starter.

Meanwhile, the NFC has:

  • Kyler Murray
  • Marcus Mariota
  • Sam Darnold
  • Justin Fields 
  • Dak Prescott
  • Jared Goff
  • Aaron Rodgers
  • Matthew Stafford
  • Kirk Cousins
  • Jameis Winston
  • Daniel Jones
  • Jalen Hurts
  • Jimmy Garoppolo/Trey Lance
  • Drew Lock
  • Tom Brady
  • Carson Wentz
About half as many guys who are either, solid starters, franchise guys, or potential high upside starters.

 
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