The Holmes/LJ disaster (1 Viewer)

[RBM]

I don't see him getting near those numbers making him a BAD value pick.. You are assuming he will continue to put the same numbers up and not get hurt.

Is there any reason anybody shouldnt expect that? I mean hes not putting up ridiculous #s right now.

Do you think he will eventually this year?? The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class. He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt. That means he's not going to earn his DP.. People lokoing at the rankings of RB.. How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL?? I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring. Is that earning his top 3 pick?? I don't think so..

Holmes is #8 in my scoring system right now despite having the worst-case scenario for him come true in weeks 1&2. Right now, you're looking at a top-10 back as your RB1 as WORST CASE. Next possible situation is Holmes gets 60-70% of the TDs like he's getting 60-70% of the carries. Now you have a top 5 back easily. BEST CASE is one gets hurt and one stays healthy. Now you have the #1 RB.So, you have a ceiling of #1 RB and a floor of maybe #9 RB. Add to this that if you drafted an RB2 before LJ, you now have phenomenal depth. You have protection against injury, and you have very live trade bait.

So, how is this a disaster again?

10th ranking in RB's but 37th OVERALL.. With the rest of the QB's/WR/TE/.. Cause if you don't see the writting on the wall now your going to see it later. This isn't about weeks 1 and 2 only its about looking at future production and the facts are this is more of a RBBC then people thought when they drafted Holmes.. Its only going to get uglier.

Uglier? ITS NOT UGLY

 

[RBM]

I don't see him getting near those numbers making him a BAD value pick.. You are assuming he will continue to put the same numbers up and not get hurt.

Is there any reason anybody shouldnt expect that? I mean hes not putting up ridiculous #s right now.

Do you think he will eventually this year?? The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class. He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt. That means he's not going to earn his DP.. People lokoing at the rankings of RB.. How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL?? I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring. Is that earning his top 3 pick?? I don't think so..

37th? Say what?Again, you really dont think Priest can average just 90 yards a game? Throw in almost a td a week, some weeks with 2, some with none. Now you tell me if you arent happy with 1400/16? Sounds elite to me

I don't think he will earn MORE carries as the weeks go on unless LJ gets hurt.. Look at his TD in the last game

He doesnt need to

 

[Synthesizer]

Plus one of these guys will probably get hurt at some point this season. The other guy immediately becomes the #1 overall player in fantasy football. So even though they're both producing top 10 numbers in the current situation, you've got a 50/50 shot at possibly having the #1 overall player. Not a bad spot to be in.

 

[Eagle Eye]

10th ranking in RB's but 37th OVERALL..  With the rest of the QB's/WR/TE/..  Cause if you don't see the writting on the wall now your going to see it later.  This isn't about weeks 1 and 2 only its about looking at future production and the facts are this is more of a RBBC then people thought when they drafted Holmes..  Its only going to get uglier.

There is an article from about 5 years written by a guy named Joe Bryant that does a nice job of explaining to you why total fantasy points, and thus overall ranking, aren't a true measure of value when you are comparing between players at different positions.It's in the articles section. I highly suggest giving it a read. Most everyone around here already realizes his overall ranking is moot, it's how he scores compared to others at his position, and how the scoring at his position drops off.

That one's gonna leave a scar.

 

[Raiders Fan]

  I don't see him getting near those numbers making him a BAD value pick..  You are assuming he will continue to put the same numbers up and not get hurt.

Is there any reason anybody shouldnt expect that? I mean hes not putting up ridiculous #s right now.

Do you think he will eventually this year?? The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class. He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt. That means he's not going to earn his DP.. People lokoing at the rankings of RB.. How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL?? I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring. Is that earning his top 3 pick?? I don't think so..

37th? Say what?Again, you really dont think Priest can average just 90 yards a game? Throw in almost a td a week, some weeks with 2, some with none. Now you tell me if you arent happy with 1400/16? Sounds elite to me

I don't think he will earn MORE carries as the weeks go on unless LJ gets hurt.. Look at his TD in the last game

He doesnt need to

If he doesn't he won't come close to his draft position in total FP.. The big picture isn't rankings its TOTAL points. He is currently 37th in TOTAL points.. In his prevous years where he dominated fantasy football he was always at the TOP... I guess I am part of the minority. I don't like anything I am seening from Holmes to justify his solid production later in the year.. He seems to be struggling now and we are in week 2.. In the last 3 years he avg'd between 22-26PPG.. in a typical 1/10 league. He is at 14PPG right now.. If he doesn't improve he won't earn a top 3 spot overall by years end.. I can't see it based on what I have seen of him so far..

 

[Timberlend]

I'm just curious how getting 2nd round production from your 5th round pick is making you lose the league.

It's not like Priest is sucking either, he's producing late 1st stats.

Please explain how a 1st and 5th that equals a 1st and 2nd is a bad thing.

I mean, you could have drafted Peyton Manning or Culpepper...

I've noticed the trend in this discussion being geared towards one year FFB leagues but I was wondering what you fellas thought about having LJ for next season. As well as his value in a Dynasty League.Is there any speculation as to whether **** Vermeil will return next season, will Willie Roaf retire? Does Holmes return if Vermeil retires?

My fantasy keeper team picked him up in exchange for Cedric Benson as I was thinking that I knew what i was getting as far talent and production with LJ.

Im eager as always to hear everyones perspective. This site is a dream come true for a fantasy football ###### like myself.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

If he doesn't he won't come close to his draft position in total FP.. The big picture isn't rankings its TOTAL points. He is currently 37th in TOTAL points.. In his prevous years where he dominated fantasy football he was always at the TOP... I guess I am part of the minority. I don't like anything I am seening from Holmes to justify his solid production later in the year.. He seems to be struggling now and we are in week 2.. In the last 3 years he avg'd between 22-26PPG.. in a typical 1/10 league. He is at 14PPG right now.. If he doesn't improve he won't earn a top 3 spot overall by years end.. I can't see it based on what I have seen of him so far..

OK, so Priest isn't putting up the numbers he did in prior years? So what--who is (other than Willie Parker)? The point is that Priest is putting up good numbers considering his ADP.Put it this way: find where Priest was picked in your league, and take the average PPG of the 2 RB's taken before him and the 2 taken after him. Do the same with LJ. I think you'll find that to date both have been solid picks.

Personally I was always much higher on LJ than Priest. My concern with Priest has been injury risk--I don't see him starting in the playoffs. However, if Priest continues to perform like he has thus far, and he makes it to the playoffs, he will be a good pick for where he was drafted.

 

[GregR_2]

If he doesn't he won't come close to his draft position in total FP.. The big picture isn't rankings its TOTAL points. He is currently 37th in TOTAL points.. In his prevous years where he dominated fantasy football he was always at the TOP... I guess I am part of the minority. I don't like anything I am seening from Holmes to justify his solid production later in the year.. He seems to be struggling now and we are in week 2.. In the last 3 years he avg'd between 22-26PPG.. in a typical 1/10 league. He is at 14PPG right now.. If he doesn't improve he won't earn a top 3 spot overall by years end.. I can't see it based on what I have seen of him so far..

Ok, I guess the article didn't help. So I'd like to propose a game.We'll both draft 1 QB, 1 RB, and 1 WR. Just you and I, competing head to head in a single game. All 3 of our players start. No bench. Only 6 players total in the draft.

We both get to know the player's results in advance. Since you say TOTAL POINTS is what matters in the value of a player, you always must draft the player with the highest TOTAL POINTS amongst the positions that you still need to fill. I will draft based on the value as shown in Joe's VBD article.

And since I'm feeling magnanimous, I'll not only let you have the first pick in the first round, I'll let you pick first in every round.

Ok, the playes are:

QB1: 100 points

QB2: 95 points

RB1: 90 points

RB2: 87 points

WR1: 50 points

WR2: 10 points.

Ok, it's your pick. Of course the guy with the highest points is most valuable according to your theory, so you have to take QB1. I'm going to take WR1, who is next to last in total points, so by your theory has no value at all.

Feel free to finish off the rest of the draft yourself, and then add up the results and see who won. And when you're done, see if you understand why it is that WR1 was the most valuable player in the league despite being next to last in TOTAL POINTS.

 

[Raiders Fan]

Let me give you an example... People are ok with his production so far.. OK fine.. FPG had his production around 329 FP for a High Performance league that starts 2 RB's.. He is on pace for 224 right now.. I can hardly see people being happy or content with that production from a top 2-3 pick.. I for one also agree he won't last the year but say he DOES.. He won't justify his DP if he continues at this pace. I know others are not either but others don't have a guy named LJ taking carries away either..

 

[Evilgrin 72]

If he doesn't he won't come close to his draft position in total FP.. The big picture isn't rankings its TOTAL points. He is currently 37th in TOTAL points.

OK, so in a 1 pt/20 pass yds, 1 pt/ 10 rush yds, 6 pt/ all TD league, if this happens:Holmes - 1400 yds, 19 TDs (RB1)

Pennington - 2900 yds, 20 TDs (QB19)

Then by your logic, Pennington is worth a higher draft spot because he scored 265 FP to Holmes' 254? Sounds like you may need a refresher in VBD and relative value between positions...

 

[David Yudkin]

If he doesn't he won't come close to his draft position in total FP.. The big picture isn't rankings its TOTAL points. He is currently 37th in TOTAL points.. In his prevous years where he dominated fantasy football he was always at the TOP... I guess I am part of the minority. I don't like anything I am seening from Holmes to justify his solid production later in the year.. He seems to be struggling now and we are in week 2.. In the last 3 years he avg'd between 22-26PPG.. in a typical 1/10 league. He is at 14PPG right now.. If he doesn't improve he won't earn a top 3 spot overall by years end.. I can't see it based on what I have seen of him so far..

How is total points relevant at all? In most leagues, QB far outscore most RB, so is the #15 QB worth more than the #2 RB, for example?Holmes has averaged 15 ppg so far. That would put him at 240 points on the season assumng he did no better or no worse and played 16 games. Last year, he would have ranked as the #8 RB with that total.I see no dip in the Chiefs propensity for running the ball AND I see no dip in how much the Chiefs are using Holmes. At his current rate, Holmes would have 360 touches on the season. HE'S NOT LOSING ANY TOUCHES TO JOHNSON AT ALL. All RB need someone else to spell them from time to time, and the Chiefs run the ball so much that no one player could carry the ball 450 times. Even if Holmes got hurt, even Johnson would have some touches go to someone else.Kansas City's offense really hasn't been firing on all cylinders yet, and the running game is STILL doing better than in years past. The main difference is that they have not had as many goal line opportunities yet. However, Holmes and LJ are on pace for 40 TD. How can anyone with a straight face not look at this situation and not think this is sacred, fertile ground for RB production. Once the team gets untracked and the OL gets healthy, I think Holmes' numbers will improve.For those that went with Holmes/LJ, one or the other (or both) of these guys will be consistent producers each week. Savvy owners that took LJ and Holmes and went stud WR in the middle should be doing exteremly well about now. Teams that got them but still took other RB early will have more of a problem, as they will have to decide who to start at RB (LJ vs ???).The object of the strategy was to lock up the KC RB production, as it is clearly the most potent rushing attack in the league by a huge margin.Why is it that people are calling Holmes a bust, but other stud RB like LT, SA, DDavis, McGahee, either Jones, etc. are not? They've done far worse than Holmes. Oh, wait, I forgot, Holmes is losing all the work to Johnson cause it's a RBBC. LOL at a pace of 360 touches being a reduced workload.

 

[Raiders Fan]

If he doesn't he won't come close to his draft position in total FP..  The big picture isn't rankings its TOTAL points.  He is currently 37th in TOTAL points.. In his prevous years where he dominated fantasy football he was always at the TOP...  I guess I am part of the minority.  I don't like anything I am seening from Holmes to justify his solid production later in the year..  He seems to be struggling now and we are in week 2..  In the last 3 years he avg'd between 22-26PPG..  in a typical 1/10 league.  He is at 14PPG right now..  If he doesn't improve he won't earn a top 3 spot overall by years end..  I can't see it based on what I have seen of him so far..

Ok, I guess the article didn't help. So I'd like to propose a game.We'll both draft 1 QB, 1 RB, and 1 WR. Just you and I, competing head to head in a single game. All 3 of our players start. No bench. Only 6 players total in the draft.

We both get to know the player's results in advance. Since you say TOTAL POINTS is what matters in the value of a player, you always must draft the player with the highest TOTAL POINTS amongst the positions that you still need to fill. I will draft based on the value as shown in Joe's VBD article.

And since I'm feeling magnanimous, I'll not only let you have the first pick in the first round, I'll let you pick first in every round.

Ok, the playes are:

QB1: 100 points

QB2: 95 points

RB1: 90 points

RB2: 87 points

WR1: 50 points

WR2: 10 points.

Ok, it's your pick. Of course the guy with the highest points is most valuable according to your theory, so you have to take QB1. I'm going to take WR1, who is next to last in total points, so by your theory has no value at all.

Feel free to finish off the rest of the draft yourself, and then add up the results and see who won. And when you're done, see if you understand why it is that WR1 was the most valuable player in the league despite being next to last in TOTAL POINTS.

Its about VALUE right?? Getting the best value at the draft position.. I don't go into a draft with a closed mind and say.. Ok I am taking 2 RB's the first 2 rounds.. I look it as I am going to take the best available player each round and in each draft I end up with a different team.. I understand about depth and who is left.. I still can't take a RB 2-3 if I don't think he will justify that spot. I would take another player who I feel will earn it..

 

[GregR_2]

If he doesn't he won't come close to his draft position in total FP.. The big picture isn't rankings its TOTAL points. He is currently 37th in TOTAL points.. In his prevous years where he dominated fantasy football he was always at the TOP... I guess I am part of the minority. I don't like anything I am seening from Holmes to justify his solid production later in the year.. He seems to be struggling now and we are in week 2.. In the last 3 years he avg'd between 22-26PPG.. in a typical 1/10 league. He is at 14PPG right now.. If he doesn't improve he won't earn a top 3 spot overall by years end.. I can't see it based on what I have seen of him so far..

Ok, I guess the article didn't help. So I'd like to propose a game.We'll both draft 1 QB, 1 RB, and 1 WR. Just you and I, competing head to head in a single game. All 3 of our players start. No bench. Only 6 players total in the draft.

We both get to know the player's results in advance. Since you say TOTAL POINTS is what matters in the value of a player, you always must draft the player with the highest TOTAL POINTS amongst the positions that you still need to fill. I will draft based on the value as shown in Joe's VBD article.

And since I'm feeling magnanimous, I'll not only let you have the first pick in the first round, I'll let you pick first in every round.

Ok, the playes are:

QB1: 100 points

QB2: 95 points

RB1: 90 points

RB2: 87 points

WR1: 50 points

WR2: 10 points.

Ok, it's your pick. Of course the guy with the highest points is most valuable according to your theory, so you have to take QB1. I'm going to take WR1, who is next to last in total points, so by your theory has no value at all.

Feel free to finish off the rest of the draft yourself, and then add up the results and see who won. And when you're done, see if you understand why it is that WR1 was the most valuable player in the league despite being next to last in TOTAL POINTS.

Its about VALUE right?? Getting the best value at the draft position.. I don't go into a draft with a closed mind and say.. Ok I am taking 2 RB's the first 2 rounds.. I look it as I am going to take the best available player each round and in each draft I end up with a different team.. I understand about depth and who is left.. I still can't take a RB 2-3 if I don't think he will justify that spot. I would take another player who I feel will earn it..

Yes, it's about value. What it's not about is OVERALL POINTS as you keep saying. I'm just trying to get across that arguments based on his ranking in total points are going to fall on deaf ears here. Because most everyone here knows total points are misleading. So it doesn't matter if he's 37th or 100th in total points. What matters is how Priest and LJ are scoring compared to other RBs, and the result is that both are still very valuable and give you a significant advantage over most other teams at RB.

 

[CalBear]

I wonder if this means that Pony Boy is going to revise his other piece of awful analysis, where he left Priest out of his "stud" group because Priest "always gets his points."

 

[Raiders Fan]

How is total points relevant at all?  In most leagues, QB far outscore most RB, so is the #15 QB worth more than the #2 RB, for example?

Holmes has averaged 15 ppg so far.  That would put him at 240 points on the season assumng he did no better or no worse and played 16 games.  Last year, he would have ranked as the #8 RB with that total.

That's almost 100 Less then what was predicted to be a top 5 pick.. In a high performance league. You don't see a problem with that logic??? I would PASS on Holmes in most drafts if I was top 5..

I see no dip in the Chiefs propensity for running the ball AND I see no dip in how much the Chiefs are using Holmes.  At his current rate, Holmes would have 360 touches on the season.  HE'S NOT LOSING ANY TOUCHES TO JOHNSON AT ALL.  All RB need someone else to spell them from time to time, and the Chiefs run the ball so much that no one player could carry the ball 450 times.  Even if Holmes got hurt, even Johnson would have some touches go to someone else.

I guess this is where we will differ.. I see Holmes getting more involved as the season wears on.. Facts are people who took Holmes in preseason did not expect this kind of split.

Kansas City's offense really hasn't been firing on all cylinders yet, and the running game is STILL doing better than in years past.  The main difference is that they have not had as many goal line opportunities yet.  However, Holmes and LJ are on pace for 40 TD.  How can anyone with a straight face not look at this situation and not think this is sacred, fertile ground for RB production.  Once the team gets untracked and the OL gets healthy, I think Holmes' numbers will improve.

For those that went with Holmes/LJ, one or the other (or both) of these guys will be consistent producers each week.  Savvy owners that took LJ and Holmes and went stud WR in the middle should be doing exteremly well about now.  Teams that got them but still took other RB early will have more of a problem, as they will have to decide who to start at RB (LJ vs ???).

The object of the strategy was to lock up the KC RB production, as it is clearly the most potent rushing attack in the league by a huge margin.

Why is it that people are calling Holmes a bust, but other stud RB like LT, SA, DDavis, McGahee, either Jones, etc. are not?  They've done far worse than Holmes.  Oh, wait, I forgot, Holmes is losing all the work to Johnson cause it's a RBBC.  LOL at a pace of 360 touches being a reduced workload.

Cause others don't have a guy named LJ producing BETTER then the starter.. Also a bit younger too.. Most assume those will bounce back soon.. It's not just the touches its what he's doing with them.. This year he is under 4 YPC.. I am just lokoing at what I have seen.. holmes is FAR from the old Holmes and will not justify his DP..

 

[barndog]

I think us Holmes/LJ owners just need to laugh all the way to the bank. RF and his ilk are stuck trying to shoot down a Good Thing with kid bows and arrows.Nothing to see here folks. Just move along.

 

[CalBear]

How is total points relevant at all? In most leagues, QB far outscore most RB, so is the #15 QB worth more than the #2 RB, for example?Holmes has averaged 15 ppg so far. That would put him at 240 points on the season assumng he did no better or no worse and played 16 games. Last year, he would have ranked as the #8 RB with that total.

That's almost 100 Less then what was predicted to be a top 5 pick.. In a high performance league. You don't see a problem with that logic??? I would PASS on Holmes in most drafts if I was top 5..

Who would you take instead? The other first-round running backs were LT2, Alexander, James, McAllister, McGahee, K.Jones, Portis, and Lewis. Not a single one of those backs is outscoring Holmes. It is obvious that, at least up to this point, that people who drafted Priest at high in the first round are doing at least as well as any other RB pickers, even if they didn't wind up taking LJ later. Oh, I didn't mention the first-round QBs, Manning and Culpepper, who are both being outscored by Joey Harrington and Anthony Wright.

 

[ZJilla]

That's almost 100 Less then what was predicted to be a top 5 pick.. In a high performance league. You don't see a problem with that logic??? I would PASS on Holmes in most drafts if I was top 5..

Who would you have taken?oops..sorry Bear....

what he said...

 

[JohnnyTitan]

How is total points relevant at all?  In most leagues, QB far outscore most RB, so is the #15 QB worth more than the #2 RB, for example?

Holmes has averaged 15 ppg so far.  That would put him at 240 points on the season assumng he did no better or no worse and played 16 games.  Last year, he would have ranked as the #8 RB with that total.

That's almost 100 Less then what was predicted to be a top 5 pick.. In a high performance league. You don't see a problem with that logic??? I would PASS on Holmes in most drafts if I was top 5..

Who would you take instead? The other first-round running backs were LT2, Alexander, James, McAllister, McGahee, K.Jones, Portis, and Lewis. Not a single one of those backs is outscoring Holmes. It is obvious that, at least up to this point, that people who drafted Priest at high in the first round are doing at least as well as any other RB pickers, even if they didn't wind up taking LJ later. Oh, I didn't mention the first-round QBs, Manning and Culpepper, who are both being outscored by Joey Harrington and Anthony Wright.

Exactly. As of right now, Priest Holmes straight up (without LJ) is a fine value as one of the top-5 picks. #2 or #3 seems high, but I think my league's auction results more accurately show where Priest's pre-season value was:Tomlinson $34

Alexander $29

Holmes $26

James $25

J Lewis $25 (over-valued due to crazy man-love of a couple GMs)

JJones $24

McAllister $24

S. Jackson $22

McGahee $20

LJohnson $8

So which of these guys is better value? Priest is doing fine. I'm not even going to build a case for LJ @ $8.

 

[P Boy]

I wonder if this means that Pony Boy is going to revise his other piece of awful analysis, where he left Priest out of his "stud" group because Priest "always gets his points."

Your opinion, of course. And of course, you as always feel no compunction about critisizing other's work without doing one iota of analysis yourself.But to answer your inane question, yes, this would throw Holmes back into the barrel with all other RBs. The circumstances are always dynamic, whether you realize it or don't realize it and would rather beat your chest about how meaningless statistical data sets are.

Hope that helps. How's your stud RB Arrington doing?

 

[SSOG]

In a start 2 RB league, I can see how you might worry about LJs consistency.

But for those of us who can start 3 RBs, this is and will be an excellent year! As a matter of fact, in my Flex leagues, I hope for both to stay healthy and continue the 60-40 split!

I would agree with this. In a start 3 RB league, the tandem looks much, much better. But in a start 2 RB league - which I would guess speaks for a large majority of leagues, an owner would have burned his 1st rounder and another of his 2nd, 3rd, or 4th for another RB given how tenuous the situation was in the preseason, then burned his 5th rounder for Johnson to ensure that he got Johnson.That's 3 of an owner's top 5 picks on RBs, one of whom has to ride the pines. The scoring by H/J in a start 2 RB league doesn't seem to give that owner anywhere near the scoring advantage he was supposed to have, especially given the 1 round dip after round 4.

I drafted 3 RBs in my first 5 rounds. None of them were Johnson or Holmes. I still have one of them riding the pines.I don't understand how it's possible to draft 3 RBs in the first 5 rounds in a start-2 league and NOT have one of them riding the pines.

There were a few issues that made this a bad play. Everyone thought this was a great insurance play, despite ignoring these issues.

1) What if Holmes gets injured early in the game? You've lost an entire game of Chiefs RB production.

Not if you start both RBs. And even if you didn't... what if you started Tomlinson, and he got hurt early in the game? You just lost an entire game of Tomlinson's production.

2) What if LJ gets just enough carries to supress Priest's value to a late round RB, while not being consistent enough to warrant starting himself?

If KC performs up to their 3 year averages, and Holmes/Johnson split the production 70/30, then Holmes is the #1 overall RB and Johnson is top 20.If KC performs up to their 3 year averages, and Holmes/Johnson split the production 60/40, then Holmes is the #5 overall RB and Johnson is the #12 overall RB.

If KC performs up to their 3 year averages, and Holmes/Johnson split the production 50/50, then Holmes and Johnson both tie for the #8 overall RB.

Worst case scenario, Holmes is looking at #8 overall RB... but if Johnson supresses his value that much, then Johnson is also the #8 overall RB. I'd be happy with 2 top-10 backs in rounds 1 and 5. I'd also be happy with the #5 and #12 backs in rounds 1 and 5. I'd also be happy with the #1 overall back and a borderline top 20 back in rounds 1 and 5. If either player gets injured, I'd be happy with the #1 overall back by a HUGE margin and a guy lost to injury in rounds 1 and 5.

Basically, no matter how the carries are split, Holmes/Johnson in rounds 1 and 5 is a win/win/win/win/win proposition. Heck, if KC performs up to its 3 year averages, then Holmes/Johnson with a high first and late second would still be a very solid play. And if they don't perform up to their 3 year averages? Well, then it was a bad selection, just like picking Manning in the first if HE doesn't perform to his 3 year averages, or Moss in the first if HE doesn't perform to his 3 year averages. I would make an arguement that there's more reason to believe that KC will keep producing than there is to believe that Manning/Moss will keep producing.

3) What if Holmes gets injured early and Larry isn't as good as advertised and falls apart after 6 or 7 games?

And this is somehow a bigger risk than that presented by Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and Willis McGahee- all first and second round RBs? The difference is that Johnson was a 5th rounder, so if he isn't as good as advertised and falls apart, you wasted a fifth rounder. The other 3 were first/second rounders, so if they aren't as good as advertised, you wasted a first/second rounder. I would argue that Johnson has as much of a history of success as either of the three aforementioned backs, too.

4) What if Holmes gets injured early in the season? You just wasted a 1st round pick on a guy you were predicting and almost hoping would get injured based on the early LJ pick.

What if TOMLINSON gets lost for the season? I mean, if you have Holmes and LJ and Holmes goes down for the season, then you lose a top 10 RB, but are compensated slightly by the #1 RB in the entire NFL by a huge margin. If you have Tomlinson and a typical 5th round RB (Chester Taylor is the nearest approximate, according to ADP), and Tomlinson gets lost for the season, then you lose a top 10 RB, but you gain... well, nothing. You just lose Tomlinson.

I said it several times, I'll say it once more. If you were THAT afraid of Priest Holmes take another RB in the first and take LJ in the 5th.

At best you are going to get a wash on this. Priest slows down and gets outright replaced as the starter. Waste of a 1st rounder, good value on the 5th rounder. You probably could've gotten better value taking a different RB then taking LJ.

As far as all the people who said start both Priest and LJ... We'll track how that does over the season.

Again, Priest Holmes is on pace for a top-10 season, and will continue that pace regardless of any split of carries, as long as he's getting at least 50%. I'd say that more than justifies his 1st round status, wouldn't you?

Do you think he will eventually this year?? The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class. He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt. That means he's not going to earn his DP.. People lokoing at the rankings of RB.. How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL?? I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring. Is that earning his top 3 pick?? I don't think so..

Alright, this really really needs to be said... first round picks *ALMOST NEVER* justify their draft position. LT is the consensus #1 overall draft pick, despite the fact that he has NEVER ONCE been the #1 most valuable player in the league.If you're selecting with the first overall selection, there will only be ONE PLAYER in the entire league who justifies that selection. Good luck figuring out who.

If you're selecting with the second overall selection, there will only be TWO PLAYERS in the entire NFL who justify the selection. Good luck figuring out who.

That's the thing... the guy taken first overall is ALMOST NEVER the most valuable player in fantasy football. He doesn't HAVE TO BE, you just want a guy who is a near-lock to be up there among the elite. if I draft an RB with a top 5 selection and he finishes the season top 10, then I am extremely happy with that selection.

Currently, Holmes was a top 5 selection. Currently, Holmes is a top 10 RB. I think it's hard to be dissatisfied with that.

 

[ZJilla]

In a start 2 RB league, I can see how you might worry about LJs consistency.

But for those of us who can start 3 RBs, this is and will be an excellent year! As a matter of fact, in my Flex leagues, I hope for both to stay healthy and continue the 60-40 split!

I would agree with this. In a start 3 RB league, the tandem looks much, much better. But in a start 2 RB league - which I would guess speaks for a large majority of leagues, an owner would have burned his 1st rounder and another of his 2nd, 3rd, or 4th for another RB given how tenuous the situation was in the preseason, then burned his 5th rounder for Johnson to ensure that he got Johnson.That's 3 of an owner's top 5 picks on RBs, one of whom has to ride the pines. The scoring by H/J in a start 2 RB league doesn't seem to give that owner anywhere near the scoring advantage he was supposed to have, especially given the 1 round dip after round 4.

I drafted 3 RBs in my first 5 rounds. None of them were Johnson or Holmes. I still have one of them riding the pines.I don't understand how it's possible to draft 3 RBs in the first 5 rounds in a start-2 league and NOT have one of them riding the pines.

There were a few issues that made this a bad play. Everyone thought this was a great insurance play, despite ignoring these issues.

1) What if Holmes gets injured early in the game? You've lost an entire game of Chiefs RB production.

Not if you start both RBs. And even if you didn't... what if you started Tomlinson, and he got hurt early in the game? You just lost an entire game of Tomlinson's production.

2) What if LJ gets just enough carries to supress Priest's value to a late round RB, while not being consistent enough to warrant starting himself?

If KC performs up to their 3 year averages, and Holmes/Johnson split the production 70/30, then Holmes is the #1 overall RB and Johnson is top 20.If KC performs up to their 3 year averages, and Holmes/Johnson split the production 60/40, then Holmes is the #5 overall RB and Johnson is the #12 overall RB.

If KC performs up to their 3 year averages, and Holmes/Johnson split the production 50/50, then Holmes and Johnson both tie for the #8 overall RB.

Worst case scenario, Holmes is looking at #8 overall RB... but if Johnson supresses his value that much, then Johnson is also the #8 overall RB. I'd be happy with 2 top-10 backs in rounds 1 and 5. I'd also be happy with the #5 and #12 backs in rounds 1 and 5. I'd also be happy with the #1 overall back and a borderline top 20 back in rounds 1 and 5. If either player gets injured, I'd be happy with the #1 overall back by a HUGE margin and a guy lost to injury in rounds 1 and 5.

Basically, no matter how the carries are split, Holmes/Johnson in rounds 1 and 5 is a win/win/win/win/win proposition. Heck, if KC performs up to its 3 year averages, then Holmes/Johnson with a high first and late second would still be a very solid play. And if they don't perform up to their 3 year averages? Well, then it was a bad selection, just like picking Manning in the first if HE doesn't perform to his 3 year averages, or Moss in the first if HE doesn't perform to his 3 year averages. I would make an arguement that there's more reason to believe that KC will keep producing than there is to believe that Manning/Moss will keep producing.

3) What if Holmes gets injured early and Larry isn't as good as advertised and falls apart after 6 or 7 games?

And this is somehow a bigger risk than that presented by Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and Willis McGahee- all first and second round RBs? The difference is that Johnson was a 5th rounder, so if he isn't as good as advertised and falls apart, you wasted a fifth rounder. The other 3 were first/second rounders, so if they aren't as good as advertised, you wasted a first/second rounder. I would argue that Johnson has as much of a history of success as either of the three aforementioned backs, too.

4) What if Holmes gets injured early in the season? You just wasted a 1st round pick on a guy you were predicting and almost hoping would get injured based on the early LJ pick.

What if TOMLINSON gets lost for the season? I mean, if you have Holmes and LJ and Holmes goes down for the season, then you lose a top 10 RB, but are compensated slightly by the #1 RB in the entire NFL by a huge margin. If you have Tomlinson and a typical 5th round RB (Chester Taylor is the nearest approximate, according to ADP), and Tomlinson gets lost for the season, then you lose a top 10 RB, but you gain... well, nothing. You just lose Tomlinson.

I said it several times, I'll say it once more. If you were THAT afraid of Priest Holmes take another RB in the first and take LJ in the 5th.

At best you are going to get a wash on this. Priest slows down and gets outright replaced as the starter. Waste of a 1st rounder, good value on the 5th rounder. You probably could've gotten better value taking a different RB then taking LJ.

As far as all the people who said start both Priest and LJ... We'll track how that does over the season.

Again, Priest Holmes is on pace for a top-10 season, and will continue that pace regardless of any split of carries, as long as he's getting at least 50%. I'd say that more than justifies his 1st round status, wouldn't you?

Do you think he will eventually this year?? The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class. He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt. That means he's not going to earn his DP.. People lokoing at the rankings of RB.. How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL?? I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring. Is that earning his top 3 pick?? I don't think so..

Alright, this really really needs to be said... first round picks *ALMOST NEVER* justify their draft position. LT is the consensus #1 overall draft pick, despite the fact that he has NEVER ONCE been the #1 most valuable player in the league.If you're selecting with the first overall selection, there will only be ONE PLAYER in the entire league who justifies that selection. Good luck figuring out who.

If you're selecting with the second overall selection, there will only be TWO PLAYERS in the entire NFL who justify the selection. Good luck figuring out who.

That's the thing... the guy taken first overall is ALMOST NEVER the most valuable player in fantasy football. He doesn't HAVE TO BE, you just want a guy who is a near-lock to be up there among the elite. if I draft an RB with a top 5 selection and he finishes the season top 10, then I am extremely happy with that selection.

Currently, Holmes was a top 5 selection. Currently, Holmes is a top 10 RB. I think it's hard to be dissatisfied with that.

:applause:

 

[David Yudkin]

As Krusty the Clown says in The Simpsons, "If this is anyone but Steve Allen, you're stealing my bit."But you summarized my position on this very well.

 

[ZJilla]

As Krusty the Clown says in The Simpsons, "If this is anyone but Steve Allen, you're stealing my bit."

But you summarized my position on this very well.

ummm, yeah, mine too.

 

[CalBear]

I wonder if this means that Pony Boy is going to revise his other piece of awful analysis, where he left Priest out of his "stud" group because Priest "always gets his points."

Your opinion, of course. And of course, you as always feel no compunction about critisizing other's work without doing one iota of analysis yourself.

And as always, you feel no compunction about competely ignoring the facts.See the original thread, where I provide detailed, objective analysis that directly refuted your point, and that you never responded to.

Hope that helps. How's your stud RB Arrington doing?

I never claimed Arrington would be a stud RB. My comments on him in my Golden Bear rundown were:

JJ Arrington, RB Cardinals: Obviously the most hyped Cal player coming into this year. I am torn on Arrington; he racked up some gaudy statistics, and was definitely a workhorse for us this year, but he really doesn't seem that exciting on the field. On the other hand, I thought Russell White was a spectacular runner and a sure thing, so maybe a guy who just hits the hole hard and runs fast is more likely to make it at the next level. He has good vision and very good speed, runs hard, can catch the ball and can carry a full-time load. His success will relate to how well Arizona can open holes for him; I'm not as optimistic about Denny Green's offense as some people are, but if you believe Arizona will have an effective offense, Arrington could put up big numbers, even #1 rookie RB numbers.

And, as Arizona has opened no holes for him, he has been ineffective.

 

[SSOG]

As Krusty the Clown says in The Simpsons, "If this is anyone but Steve Allen, you're stealing my bit."

But you summarized my position on this very well.

I think the biggest opposition to the Holmes/Johnson strategy is that there is risk involved. I would argue that there is risk involved in every single selection in the entire draft, and no strategy mitigates that risk better than the Holmes/Johnson, even if it costs a 1st and a 4th. After all, in every scenario imaginable (70/30, 60/40, 50/50, Holmes lost to injury, Johnson lost to injury), the two picks combined provide value. The only way that those two picks combined DON'T provide value is if they BOTH get injured, which, while possible, is pretty long odds.

For those who badmouth the strategy, name for me two other picks (1st and 4th round) with less risk than Holmes/Johnson.

For the record, I never drafted the Holmes/Johnson duo. In my 3 main draft leagues, once Johnson was kept (keeper league), once I got autodrafted against my will, and once I passed on Holmes for James (and have kicked myself for it ever since). However, in my autodraft league, I made acquiring Holmes/Johnson a priority. I have very nice depth at RB there, and got Johnson for cheap in the offseason, then traded Shaun Alexander and Willie Parker for Holmes. I don't regret it, either.

 

[Otis]

The best move here was a later-round value pick of LJ. Have your first and second round backs and LJ in the mix too. Money.

 

[pizzatyme]

The best move here was a later-round value pick of LJ. Have your first and second round backs and LJ in the mix too. Money.

Good point! I also used this strategy in 2 of my 2 RB 1 Flex leagues. I got Deuce, Tiki, and LJ in one. and Westy, Tiki, and LJ in another.I am pretty happy in those leagues too.

 

[David Yudkin]

The best move here was a later-round value pick of LJ.  Have your first and second round backs and LJ in the mix too.  Money.

Good point! I also used this strategy in 2 of my 2 RB 1 Flex leagues. I got Deuce, Tiki, and LJ in one. and Westy, Tiki, and LJ in another.I am pretty happy in those leagues too.

The only concern I have on this type of strategy in a start 2 RB league is that Johnson may not ever see the fantasy field and essentially becomes a pure fantasy backup (and one that may not get 10 carries a game at that). probably worth the investment at a flex, but probably not if there isn't a flex.I think part of what made the KC RB strategy a good one is it let you stock up with stud WR or a true stud TE or QB without sacrificing anything at all at RB.

Since my leagues drafted early, it was not uncommon to see a team with Holmes/LJ, Chad Johnson, Owens, and one of Bulger, Witten, Shockey, Fitgerald, Driver, or a RB that fell (Fred Taylor for example). Those teams have been doing extremely well so far.

 

[Wally Cleaver]

Kind of off the current topic, but does anyone else get the feeling that HOLMES is about to go off! I thought he looked very good last week, and seems to have the confidence of the coaching staff...I think he may just be beginning to round into form as he did not get many carries in the pre-season...added: No, not a Holmes owner but I am looking to acquire him...

 

[glumpy]

In a start 2 RB league, I can see how you might worry about LJs consistency.

But for those of us who can start 3 RBs, this is and will be an excellent year! As a matter of fact, in my Flex leagues, I hope for both to stay healthy and continue the 60-40 split!

I would agree with this. In a start 3 RB league, the tandem looks much, much better. But in a start 2 RB league - which I would guess speaks for a large majority of leagues, an owner would have burned his 1st rounder and another of his 2nd, 3rd, or 4th for another RB given how tenuous the situation was in the preseason, then burned his 5th rounder for Johnson to ensure that he got Johnson.That's 3 of an owner's top 5 picks on RBs, one of whom has to ride the pines. The scoring by H/J in a start 2 RB league doesn't seem to give that owner anywhere near the scoring advantage he was supposed to have, especially given the 1 round dip after round 4.

I drafted 3 RBs in my first 5 rounds. None of them were Johnson or Holmes. I still have one of them riding the pines.I don't understand how it's possible to draft 3 RBs in the first 5 rounds in a start-2 league and NOT have one of them riding the pines.

There were a few issues that made this a bad play.  Everyone thought this was a great insurance play, despite ignoring these issues.

1) What if Holmes gets injured early in the game?  You've lost an entire game of Chiefs RB production.

Not if you start both RBs. And even if you didn't... what if you started Tomlinson, and he got hurt early in the game? You just lost an entire game of Tomlinson's production.

2) What if LJ gets just enough carries to supress Priest's value to a late round RB, while not being consistent enough to warrant starting himself?

If KC performs up to their 3 year averages, and Holmes/Johnson split the production 70/30, then Holmes is the #1 overall RB and Johnson is top 20.If KC performs up to their 3 year averages, and Holmes/Johnson split the production 60/40, then Holmes is the #5 overall RB and Johnson is the #12 overall RB.

If KC performs up to their 3 year averages, and Holmes/Johnson split the production 50/50, then Holmes and Johnson both tie for the #8 overall RB.

Worst case scenario, Holmes is looking at #8 overall RB... but if Johnson supresses his value that much, then Johnson is also the #8 overall RB. I'd be happy with 2 top-10 backs in rounds 1 and 5. I'd also be happy with the #5 and #12 backs in rounds 1 and 5. I'd also be happy with the #1 overall back and a borderline top 20 back in rounds 1 and 5. If either player gets injured, I'd be happy with the #1 overall back by a HUGE margin and a guy lost to injury in rounds 1 and 5.

Basically, no matter how the carries are split, Holmes/Johnson in rounds 1 and 5 is a win/win/win/win/win proposition. Heck, if KC performs up to its 3 year averages, then Holmes/Johnson with a high first and late second would still be a very solid play. And if they don't perform up to their 3 year averages? Well, then it was a bad selection, just like picking Manning in the first if HE doesn't perform to his 3 year averages, or Moss in the first if HE doesn't perform to his 3 year averages. I would make an arguement that there's more reason to believe that KC will keep producing than there is to believe that Manning/Moss will keep producing.

3) What if Holmes gets injured early and Larry isn't as good as advertised and falls apart after 6 or 7 games?

And this is somehow a bigger risk than that presented by Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and Willis McGahee- all first and second round RBs? The difference is that Johnson was a 5th rounder, so if he isn't as good as advertised and falls apart, you wasted a fifth rounder. The other 3 were first/second rounders, so if they aren't as good as advertised, you wasted a first/second rounder. I would argue that Johnson has as much of a history of success as either of the three aforementioned backs, too.

4) What if Holmes gets injured early in the season?  You just wasted a 1st round pick on a guy you were predicting and almost hoping would get injured based on the early LJ pick.

What if TOMLINSON gets lost for the season? I mean, if you have Holmes and LJ and Holmes goes down for the season, then you lose a top 10 RB, but are compensated slightly by the #1 RB in the entire NFL by a huge margin. If you have Tomlinson and a typical 5th round RB (Chester Taylor is the nearest approximate, according to ADP), and Tomlinson gets lost for the season, then you lose a top 10 RB, but you gain... well, nothing. You just lose Tomlinson.

I said it several times, I'll say it once more.  If you were THAT afraid of Priest Holmes take another RB in the first and take LJ in the 5th.

At best you are going to get a wash on this.  Priest slows down and gets outright replaced as the starter.  Waste of a 1st rounder, good value on the 5th rounder.  You probably could've gotten better value taking a different RB then taking LJ.

As far as all the people who said start both Priest and LJ... We'll track how that does over the season.

Again, Priest Holmes is on pace for a top-10 season, and will continue that pace regardless of any split of carries, as long as he's getting at least 50%. I'd say that more than justifies his 1st round status, wouldn't you?

Do you think he will eventually this year??  The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class.  He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt.  That means he's not going to earn his DP..  People lokoing at the rankings of RB..  How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL??  I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring.  Is that earning his top 3 pick??  I don't think so.. 

Alright, this really really needs to be said... first round picks *ALMOST NEVER* justify their draft position. LT is the consensus #1 overall draft pick, despite the fact that he has NEVER ONCE been the #1 most valuable player in the league.If you're selecting with the first overall selection, there will only be ONE PLAYER in the entire league who justifies that selection. Good luck figuring out who.

If you're selecting with the second overall selection, there will only be TWO PLAYERS in the entire NFL who justify the selection. Good luck figuring out who.

That's the thing... the guy taken first overall is ALMOST NEVER the most valuable player in fantasy football. He doesn't HAVE TO BE, you just want a guy who is a near-lock to be up there among the elite. if I draft an RB with a top 5 selection and he finishes the season top 10, then I am extremely happy with that selection.

Currently, Holmes was a top 5 selection. Currently, Holmes is a top 10 RB. I think it's hard to be dissatisfied with that.

 

[SSOG]

Kind of off the current topic, but does anyone else get the feeling that HOLMES is about to go off! I thought he looked very good last week, and seems to have the confidence of the coaching staff...

I think he may just be beginning to round into form as he did not get many carries in the pre-season...

added: No, not a Holmes owner but I am looking to acquire him...

Holmes has a history of success against Denver. Looks like a good week for him.

 

[Mark Wimer]

But that Holmes owner is no worse than whoever drafted Tomlinson or Alexander, and better than the James or McGahee owners and others who are underperforming as first round picks.

It's just two weeks. Week 1 saw Johnson score after Holmes came out for a rest after a 35-yard run. Week 2 saw Johnson score after Holmes got a stinger. If he gets either of those TDs, he's on pace for 1500 yards and 24 TDs. Not bad for a number one. Plus, he was rested for some of the Jets game given that the game was in the bag.

We all can see Johnson emerging, but Holmes is still a legitimate threat to lead all RBs in ppg, and that still makes him a Top 5 pick to me.

xactly. Just wait until Willie Roaf gets back in the lineup. Then the FP will flow like a river...

 

[GOroute]

This is ridiculous. 2 weeks into the season. If this keeps Holmes fresh, then great. Also, why do people assume we got LJ in rd 5. I got him at 8.11. That is a steaaaaaaal! i am very content to have a lock on the best running team in the nfl.

 

[P Boy]

Just a push to the top to see if there are other opinions or if anyone has changed their minds.3 leagues that I'm in right now, after week 3:1) Holmes #16 RB, LJ #21 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 12.8 FF pts2) Holmes #13 RB, LJ #16 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 11.4 FF pts1) Holmes #12 RB, LJ #14 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 10.4 FF pts

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Just a push to the top to see if there are other opinions or if anyone has changed their minds.

3 leagues that I'm in right now, after week 3:

1) Holmes #16 RB, LJ #21 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 12.8 FF pts

2) Holmes #13 RB, LJ #16 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 11.4 FF pts

1) Holmes #12 RB, LJ #14 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 10.4 FF pts

Don't tell theclearthecream, he'll just retort that LJ was a top 5 RB in week 1.

 

[pizzatyme]

Still too early to tell..next 2 weeks will clear the picture, for me anyway. BTW in my 2 flex leagues that I got LJ without Padre, I sat LJ tonight on a gut feeling for Lelie in one and Kennison in the other.I got a big gut! lol

 

[SSOG]

Just a push to the top to see if there are other opinions or if anyone has changed their minds.

3 leagues that I'm in right now, after week 3:

1) Holmes #16 RB, LJ #21 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 12.8 FF pts

2) Holmes #13 RB, LJ #16 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 11.4 FF pts

1) Holmes #12 RB, LJ #14 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 10.4 FF pts

Ummm... I'm pretty sure from the time stamp on that post that the reason Holmes and Johnson were ranked so low in your league's scoring system... is that they'd only played 2 games at the time, compared to the... what, 26 other teams that already had 3 games worth of action? Let me know how they're ranking NOW, after the action.Granted, LJ probably didn't move up much, but Holmes got 3 receptions and 93 total yards. Not too shabby.

Edit: Nevermind, disregard this post. I see that FBG's message board is making all time stamps in Central time, not Eastern.

 

[GridironMenace]

I have been saying it all along...LJ should almost never get a start on your squad. he just won't touch the ball more than 10 times. Actually he hasn't touched the ball more than 9 times in a single game yet! You think he is going to score a TD once every 9 times? Nope. He will have more games like this than he did the first 2. Plus he isn't the goal line back like some are saying. Priest was just out for those series' and those were the series that KC actually moved the ball to the goal line. Priest is an every week starter. LJ should not be!

 

[jeremyx13]

I drafted Priest and then got LJ in 10th. I only start Priest in my league (2RB, 2WR, TE) along with Westbrook whom I picked up in the 2nd round. I will take the consistency of Priest to go with the "blow your mind" numbers of Westbrook each week and be happy to have LJ sitting on my bench in case the Great One goes down to injury. Any shortcomings I have with RB's is more than made up with C. Johnson at WR (WHAT A STUD! FF one that is!)

 

[Bri]

Just a push to the top to see if there are other opinions or if anyone has changed their minds.

3 leagues that I'm in right now, after week 3:

1) Holmes #16 RB, LJ #21 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 12.8 FF pts

2) Holmes #13 RB, LJ #16 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 11.4 FF pts

1) Holmes #12 RB, LJ #14 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 10.4 FF pts

IIRC No back other than Priest has gotten 100 yards against the Broncos D at Invesco Field. Seems like last night was Priest and LJ having a rough game like most RBs do against Denver.You're a Denver fan or live in Denver, right Ponyboy? I really like their Lbers and certain D-linemen. How come they can hold RBs to under 100 almost every time for a few years(3? 4? how many has Invesco been open for?) but they never improve that all important smidge to becoming like the great Bucs, Titans, and Ravens D's of years past and seem to hold most to 50 yards? All the D line changes? coaching/discipline on the field?

 

[P Boy]

I really like their Lbers and certain D-linemen. How come they can hold RBs to under 100 almost every time for a few years(3? 4? how many has Invesco been open for?) but they never improve that all important smidge to becoming like the great Bucs, Titans, and Ravens D's of years past and seem to hold most to 50 yards? All the D line changes? coaching/discipline on the field?

That's a good question - albeit a hi-jack. But I like divergent discussion, unlike some others here.Shanahan just doesn't seem to value D-linemen (with the notable exception of Pryce). He gets a guy on board, the guy starts performing really well, the guy wants some additional reasonable compensation, and Shanahan sends them packing & picks up another player (usually a vet well past their prime). There's no cohesion along the D-line, and I think that's where Ds become flat out dominant, when the D-line can control the LoS in both the pass & the run with little to no help from LBs.

 

[Raiders Fan]

Just a push to the top to see if there are other opinions or if anyone has changed their minds.

3 leagues that I'm in right now, after week 3:

1) Holmes #16 RB, LJ #21 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 12.8 FF pts

2) Holmes #13 RB, LJ #16 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 11.4 FF pts

1) Holmes #12 RB, LJ #14 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 10.4 FF pts

This will continue due to Holmes getting more carries but I still firmly believe Holmes will NEVER earn his 1st round position.. That is the reason I passed on him in all leagues..

 

[Cenobite]

I think Pony Boy's issue with the tandem is that L. Johnson will probably not have the consistent scoring that he had in the 1st 2 games.  Overall, LJ will be ranked high because of the weeks he lights it up. In between those games you may see much lower scoring from him. In head-to-head match-ups this may be a potential problem. Overall, it probably will not. Interesting point. If it turns out that LJ is in fact an inconsistent scorer then Pony Boy's post may prove correct. 14 more games to find out. 

In a start 2 RB league, I can see how you might worry about LJs consistency.

Exactly. In start 2 RB leagues the tandem will not prove successful.

 

[ZJilla]

Just a push to the top to see if there are other opinions or if anyone has changed their minds.

3 leagues that I'm in right now, after week 3:

1) Holmes #16 RB, LJ #21 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 12.8 FF pts

2) Holmes #13 RB, LJ #16 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 11.4 FF pts

1) Holmes #12 RB, LJ #14 RB; LJ last 2 weeks: 10.4 FF pts

This will continue due to Holmes getting more carries but I still firmly believe Holmes will NEVER earn his 1st round position.. That is the reason I passed on him in all leagues..

No it isn't. They hadn't decided to split 66/33 before the season started. You were worried about injury, which may/may not come true.

 

[SSOG]

That's a good question - albeit a hi-jack. But I like divergent discussion, unlike some others here.

Shanahan just doesn't seem to value D-linemen (with the notable exception of Pryce). He gets a guy on board, the guy starts performing really well, the guy wants some additional reasonable compensation, and Shanahan sends them packing & picks up another player (usually a vet well past their prime). There's no cohesion along the D-line, and I think that's where Ds become flat out dominant, when the D-line can control the LoS in both the pass & the run with little to no help from LBs.

Going to have to disagree with you here. The problem is that Shanahan doesn't lock players up to a long-term contract until he's seen them produce, and the DEs in Denver haven't produced until the last season of their contract. Yeah, we let Berry go, and he's looking like the real deal in Arizona, but letting Hayward go was a GREAT move. I mean, just look what Hayward has done in Jacksonville so far. Absolutely nothing. Meanwhile, look what Courtney Brown, Michael Meyers, Ebenezer Ekuban, and Gerard Warren have done in Denver. And remember, Brown, Myers, Ekuban, and Warren were all signed for the same amount of money it would have taken to sign Hayward. The problem is that DEs are just overvalued in free agency. Plus, Hayward was never really that good against the run, anyway.

 

[Bri]

IIRC you guys signed McGlockton and well had a long day can't recall em' all but there's been quite a few DL in Denver the last 5-6 years. Sorry for the hijack Ponyboy. I thought it was a good point as folks begin to panic about LJ and Priest, it's more like the Chiefs were just like every other team struggling there than that it was a normal week and we should break it down and rip em' apart. Watching the game, I saw Priest break a few 6-10 yarders here and there but they were down so much I wonderred why they continue to run. It was as if those few good runs enticed them to keep trying. They needed to pass and play catchup IMO

 

[P Boy]

Time to push this up & eat some crow.Taking Holmes in the first & L Johnson in the 5th looks to be a brilliant move right now.Holmes produced like a top 5 RB or close to it while he was healthy, and now LJ in the 5th, give or take, is paying off in spades.To those who promoted this strategy, great call.To those like me who were detractors: :X

 

[Buckna]

I was a fan of this strategy and tried it in a few leagues to good results so far. That being said, it didn't pay the really big dividends expected for the one assumption many of us didn't question: that Kansas City's offense would stay as potent as it had been the past few seasons.I do wonder if I could of gotten LJ later than the rounds that I ended up taking him though. I saw him go as early as the 3rd round or as late as the 7th, a lot of variation.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I was a fan of this strategy and tried it in a few leagues to good results so far.

That being said, it didn't pay the really big dividends expected for the one assumption many of us didn't question: that Kansas City's offense would stay as potent as it had been the past few seasons.

I do wonder if I could of gotten LJ later than the rounds that I ended up taking him though. I saw him go as early as the 3rd round or as late as the 7th, a lot of variation.

I got him in the 7th. This strategy has been a success, however, I would have liked a little more in the TD department from the KC backfield, considering how well they've done in that regard lately. Every year, I try to draft Chiefs and get rebuffed - it figures the year I get Priest, LJ, and Gonzalez, that their cumulative production is way off. However, I am 7-3 and the #1 seed in the playoffs if the season ended today, so I can't complain much.