KC is currently the 3rd highest scoring team in the NFL, is the 3rd ranked rushing team, and lead the NFL in rushing TDs, rushing FDs, and 20+ yd rushes. The running game is just about all a FF owner can expect from a rushing O.In the preseason there were numerous discussions about how a FF owner would gain a gigantic advantage over his opponents if he could draft Holmes with one of the first 4 picks and then get L Johnson as a handcuff in the 5th round. In fact, it was proposed that the FF owner who could do this would be in a position to dominate his league.Instead, after 2 weeks, an owner that spent the 1st/5th rounder on Holmes/Johnson is likely in some trouble in the league. Holmes and Johnson are both performing like late 1st round/early 2nd round picks, but there's another problem. Johnson is outscoring Holmes, but his production is wildly erratic. Holmes isn't scoring as much, but he is extremely consistent. If you start Holmes, you aren't getting near the production that a top 4 pick warrants. If you start Johnson, you got a huge week in week 1 followed by a poor week in week 2. If you started both guys because you were hoping to corner all of the KC rushing points, you probably had to sit your #2 RB in most leagues.Add to that the problem of Johnson effectively reducing Homes' touches, making Holmes' chances of staying healthy (read keeping the RBBC going for an extended period) much greater. Johnson is putting up better averages, but Holmes is the workhorse.In short, right now the Holmes/Johnson tandem is looking like a huge mistake, and isn't scoring nearly enough FF pts to allow the owner to get very far in the playoffs if he even makes it there.Is there any hope in the near future for the Holmes/Johnson owner? The only shot I see is if one of the 2 gets hurt (and you never want to wish bad things onto your own players) or if Vermeil decides to make Johnson the featured RB and reduce Holmes' workload - which doesn't look likely.This may be one of the worst projected strategies that we've seen come across the board in a while...
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The Holmes/LJ disaster (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter P Boy
- Start date
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
Holmes will never earn his draft position this year period.. That makes him one of the worst value picks this year..
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'm just curious how getting 2nd round production from your 5th round pick is making you lose the league. 
It's not like Priest is sucking either, he's producing late 1st stats. Please explain how a 1st and 5th that equals a 1st and 2nd is a bad thing.I mean, you could have drafted Peyton Manning or Culpepper... 
It's not like Priest is sucking either, he's producing late 1st stats. Please explain how a 1st and 5th that equals a 1st and 2nd is a bad thing.I mean, you could have drafted Peyton Manning or Culpepper... 
David Yudkin
Footballguy
In short, you're way off on this one.At the moment, in a standard scoing league, Holmes is the #7 RB and Holmes the #8. So those that took both have two Top 10 RB.As for Holmes, he's averaging 15 ppg--same as LT. Alexander, the other guy considered early in the first, is averaging 14 ppg. The only first round pick better than Holmes right now is Barber.The Holmes/LJ combo is on pace for 514 fantasy points. If you started both backs each week, you'd be doing very well.How many RB have had 15 points both weeks? F-O-U-R.
The Jerk
Footballguy
But that Holmes owner is no worse than whoever drafted Tomlinson or Alexander, and better than the James or McGahee owners and others who are underperforming as first round picks.It's just two weeks. Week 1 saw Johnson score after Holmes came out for a rest after a 35-yard run. Week 2 saw Johnson score after Holmes got a stinger. If he gets either of those TDs, he's on pace for 1500 yards and 24 TDs. Not bad for a number one. Plus, he was rested for some of the Jets game given that the game was in the bag.We all can see Johnson emerging, but Holmes is still a legitimate threat to lead all RBs in ppg, and that still makes him a Top 5 pick to me.
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Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
That's after week 2.. You think he will continue?? I don't seriously.. I see LJ taking more and more snaps from Holmes. If you saw the game you saw how much better LJ looks... I for one will stick by that Holmes will not survive the year without being injured.. I am not wishing anything just can't see his body holding out.. BTW not all Owners of Priest have LJ..I'm just curious how getting 2nd round production from your 5th round pick is making you lose the league.
It's not like Priest is sucking either, he's producing late 1st stats.
Please explain how a 1st and 5th that equals a 1st and 2nd is a bad thing.
I mean, you could have drafted Peyton Manning or Culpepper...
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'm completely aware that not all Priest owners have LJ. But then they didn't follow the strategy, now did they?Ok, let's say you're right. For now you get two top 15 RBs.That's after week 2.. You think he will continue?? I don't seriously.. I see LJ taking more and more snaps from Holmes. If you saw the game you saw how much better LJ looks... I for one will stick by that Holmes will not survive the year without being injured.. I am not wishing anything just can't see his body holding out.. BTW not all Owners of Priest have LJ..I'm just curious how getting 2nd round production from your 5th round pick is making you lose the league.
It's not like Priest is sucking either, he's producing late 1st stats.
Please explain how a 1st and 5th that equals a 1st and 2nd is a bad thing.
I mean, you could have drafted Peyton Manning or Culpepper...
If Priest gets hurt, LJ becomes a top 3 (probably #1).
If LJ got hurt and Priest didn't, he's a top 3 (probably #1).
If both got hurt, you have to pick up Dee Brown.
Not to say it's a "can't lose" situtation, but I fail to see how the strategy is to blame.
FWIW, I don't have Priest in any league, only have LJ in one, where I'm looking very good right now.
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JohnnyTitan
Footballguy
No kidding. Just which 1st round RB would you rather have?Player WK#1, WK#2Yeah, it was definitely smarter to go with DomDavis, McGahee, JLewis, KJones, or CMart.
I'm loving these guys on my team(s) cuz I know TDs are coming week after week.
Holmes 90 /1, 90 / 1
Johnson 121 / 2, 41 / 1
James 114 / 0 , 167 / 0
McGahee 132 / 0 , 33 / 0
Davis 57 / 0 , 92 / 1
JJones 111 / 1 , 105 / 0
Portis 121 / 0 , 77 / 0
KJones 96 / 0 , 27 / 0
And it's only week #2. There is a lot of football left to play. A little premature to start harping on Priest or LJ.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
As an advocate of the strategy, I said the worse case scenario was that Holmes and Johnson split the production evenly (which they have). And in that scenario they would both be Top 8 RB (which they currently are). This is exactly true to form at this point.
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
You really think Priest will be in the top 15 at end of year??? My thinking is Priest won't justify his draft position.. Top 3 overall is a far cry from #15 RB.. BTW I agree that Holmes owners should have taken LJ early.. I have LJ in 1 league and don't have Priest at all.. In our keeper draft I told the Priest owner he better grab LJ in the 1st or he would never get him.. He passed and I jumped all over him in early round 2.. Since then he has mocked me saying you must be scared of my team to take him.. I said no I want a true STUD next year to go with Jordan...I'm completely aware that not all Priest owners have LJ. But then they didn't follow the strategy, now did they?Ok, let's say you're right. For now you get two top 15 RBs.That's after week 2.. You think he will continue?? I don't seriously.. I see LJ taking more and more snaps from Holmes. If you saw the game you saw how much better LJ looks... I for one will stick by that Holmes will not survive the year without being injured.. I am not wishing anything just can't see his body holding out.. BTW not all Owners of Priest have LJ..I'm just curious how getting 2nd round production from your 5th round pick is making you lose the league.
It's not like Priest is sucking either, he's producing late 1st stats.
Please explain how a 1st and 5th that equals a 1st and 2nd is a bad thing.
I mean, you could have drafted Peyton Manning or Culpepper...
If Priest gets hurt, LJ becomes a top 3 (probably #1).
If LJ got hurt and Priest didn't, he's a top 3 (probably #1).
If both got hurt, you have to pick up Dee Brown.
Not to say it's a "can't lose" situtation, but I fail to see how the strategy is to blame.
FWIW, I don't have Priest in any league, only have LJ in one, where I'm looking very good right now.
Cenobite
Footballguy
I think Pony Boy's issue with the tandem is that L. Johnson will probably not have the consistent scoring that he had in the 1st 2 games. Overall, LJ will be ranked high because of the weeks he lights it up. In between those games you may see much lower scoring from him. In head-to-head match-ups this may be a potential problem. Overall, it probably will not. Interesting point. If it turns out that LJ is in fact an inconsistent scorer then Pony Boy's post may prove correct. 14 more games to find out. 
Gee, I never thought that this would touch a nerve. God forbid questioning this strategy.
I play in 3 leagues, a 14 teamer, a 12 teamer, and a 10 teamer. Performnace pts vary from 0.5 ppr for RBs to 0 ppr for RBs.
This is the way the Holmes/Johnson tandem shakes out:
10 teamer
H/J is the #2 highest RB tandem, 12.6% above the median RB tandem. LJ = #7 scoring RB, Holmes = #9 scoring RB.
12 teamer
H/J is the #4 highest scoring RB tandem, 8.6% above the median RB tandem. LJ = #7 scoring RB, Holmes = #11 scoring RB
14 teamer
H/J is the #4 highest scoring tandem, 20.3% above the median RB tandem. LJ = #10 scoring RB, Holmes = #12 scoring RB.
*********************************
Now, the theory propsed had Holmes & Johnson scoring so many points that an owner can forsake his 5th rounder for a handcuff, essentially placing him one round behind all the other owners in round 5 as far as starters and bye week players are concerned. The owner that took the H/J tandem was supposed to have a HUGE competitive advantage, enough to easily overcome that setback.
Given the numbers above, I simply don't see where the H/J tandem is scoring so many more points above and beyond all other RB combos, much less the median combos, that it justifies dropping back in the draft by 1 round so early.
Please tell me where I'm wrong here.
I play in 3 leagues, a 14 teamer, a 12 teamer, and a 10 teamer. Performnace pts vary from 0.5 ppr for RBs to 0 ppr for RBs.
This is the way the Holmes/Johnson tandem shakes out:
10 teamer
H/J is the #2 highest RB tandem, 12.6% above the median RB tandem. LJ = #7 scoring RB, Holmes = #9 scoring RB.
12 teamer
H/J is the #4 highest scoring RB tandem, 8.6% above the median RB tandem. LJ = #7 scoring RB, Holmes = #11 scoring RB
14 teamer
H/J is the #4 highest scoring tandem, 20.3% above the median RB tandem. LJ = #10 scoring RB, Holmes = #12 scoring RB.
*********************************
Now, the theory propsed had Holmes & Johnson scoring so many points that an owner can forsake his 5th rounder for a handcuff, essentially placing him one round behind all the other owners in round 5 as far as starters and bye week players are concerned. The owner that took the H/J tandem was supposed to have a HUGE competitive advantage, enough to easily overcome that setback.
Given the numbers above, I simply don't see where the H/J tandem is scoring so many more points above and beyond all other RB combos, much less the median combos, that it justifies dropping back in the draft by 1 round so early.
Please tell me where I'm wrong here.
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pizzatyme
Footballguy
And what RB3 will be more consistant than LJ? I mean if you got Priest in the first and LJ in the 5th, I'm sure you got a RB2 in rounds 2,3 or 4, right?In a start 2 RB league, I can see how you might worry about LJs consistency.I think Pony Boy's issue with the tandem is that L. Johnson will probably not have the consistent scoring that he had in the 1st 2 games. Overall, LJ will be ranked high because of the weeks he lights it up. In between those games you may see much lower scoring from him. In head-to-head match-ups this may be a potential problem. Overall, it probably will not. Interesting point. If it turns out that LJ is in fact an inconsistent scorer then Pony Boy's post may prove correct. 14 more games to find out.
But for those of us who can start 3 RBs, this is and will be an excellent year! As a matter of fact, in my Flex leagues, I hope for both to stay healthy and continue the 60-40 split!
I would agree with this. In a start 3 RB league, the tandem looks much, much better. But in a start 2 RB league - which I would guess speaks for a large majority of leagues, an owner would have burned his 1st rounder and another of his 2nd, 3rd, or 4th for another RB given how tenuous the situation was in the preseason, then burned his 5th rounder for Johnson to ensure that he got Johnson.That's 3 of an owner's top 5 picks on RBs, one of whom has to ride the pines. The scoring by H/J in a start 2 RB league doesn't seem to give that owner anywhere near the scoring advantage he was supposed to have, especially given the 1 round dip after round 4.
The Jerk
Footballguy
Granted, it does depend on what round a Holmes owner chose to pick Johnson. But really, even if it's the fifth round, how much of a dropoff is there at that point in the draft. I agree that the mid-to-late rounds of FF drafting is where you can make a difference, but I also know that the dropoff per round decreases per round.The worst-case scenario as I see it is that the KC OL gets hurt or goes downhill.More likely, I think the worst-case scenario is what happens to the other teams in your league when Holmes or Johnson gets hurt. And the insurance factor is what makes the fifth round more tolerable. No other team has as talented a backup or as good of an offensive system.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I think some of you are forgetting a key element of the Holmes/LJ strategy. Several people have indicated their concerns that LJ might not continue to be a Top 10 back with a limited workload and his scoing might be sporadic.But those same people don't realize is that if Johnson is not getting the production that week, Holmes most certianly will. It's not like Johnson will have a game with 6 carries and 25 total yards and Holmes will have 70 yards and no TD. I highly doubt that both guys will tank in the same week or both will get single digit carries.As for Holmes, he had back to back games with fewer than 15 points in both 2003 and 2004. You can't hit a home run every week.The Holmes/LJ strategy was mostly to CYA if Holmes got hurt and have LJ as a RB3 with a ton of upside. It evolved to potentially starting both guys as long as they were both productive.If you remember my breakdown by percentages . . .70/30 Holmes = Holmes #1 RB, LJ Top 2560/40 Holmes = Holmes Top 3, LJ Top 1250/50 = Both Top 8 RB
GregR_2
Footballguy
ADP shows 31 RBs going in the first 5 rounds for 12 team, non-flex leagues. That's enough that 7 teams have 3 RBs in the first 5 rounds, and the other 5 teams have 2. How is someone who took Priest, another RB, and then LJ and has to bench one of the three any worse off than the other 6 teams who also took 3 RBs and have to bench one of them?
You are right that so far the scoring is split and the huge edge of having Priest get most of that scoring isn't showing. However, if this trend continues and both put up top 10 numbers, what sane person is going to complain about getting 2 top ten RBs out of a 1st and a 5th round pick? If they picked their second RB at all wisely and have someone with value, they should be able to turn around then and trade that RB for an upgrade at WR or QB, plus a RB3.
culdeus
Footballguy
THANK GOD SOMEONE SAID THIS.My innernet has been so slow this morning
.This guy is making a HUGE GIGORMOUS MASSIVE assumption that you would go Priest WR WR QB LJ or some such which I bet hardly anyone did. PB is taking a major leap of faith in assuming that by calling out "tandems" like he is.
Thanks.
I also seriously call into question the "large majority" of leagues that start only 2RBs. I would assume at least if not more than 50% of 12 team leagues and 75%+ of 10 team leagues start 2+1.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I drafted Holmes at #2 and LJ at 7.02. Took Barber in the second and got D. Jax/Bulger/Gonzalez (no TE required)/Chambers in rounds 3-6. I'm currently 2-0 having started Holmes and Barber each of the last two weeks. Leading my league in overall points, and better still have great consistency thus far (73 and 71 points in wks 1&2 respectively.) If Holmes gets hurt, LJs value goes through the roof. If LJ gets hurt, Priest's value goes through the roof. If they both stay healthy, I have terrific insurance and the possibility of being able to trade Barber for a WR1 (already have been offered Harrison for him.) In short, I LOVE this strategy thus far.
Family Matters
Footballguy
Great post David. When you have 2 top 10 RB's why would anyone complain? It's what we all strive for every year.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I am starting both of them in one league and have no complaints so far. They've MORE than justified their draft spots.I also own LJ in two other leagues and have been very pleased with him as my flex.COlin
Wingnut
Footballguy
I dont get this logic. If he ends up with, say, 1300yds and 15-18tds or so, he has performed to his draft position. No, its not the eye popping stats we are used to, but its still on par with all the other high 1st round picks.People have been spoilled by the rediculous numbers, and now that they wont get them, people are quick to scream "overvalued". Its just not the case.
LT went before Priest in just about every draft, and he will end up in the neighborhood of 1500-1900yds, and 15-20tds. And thats from a #1-#2 pick. How you can say a player that is taken after that that will put up similar numbers is overvalued is beyond me.
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
IF he does.. I am saying he WON'T.. Thats my opinion.. I don't see him getting near those numbers making him a BAD value pick.. You are assuming he will continue to put the same numbers up and not get hurt. Plus your not figuring LJ to take more caries as the season goes on.. I just don't see Holmes holding up all year.. I guess we will see.. In a 2 RB league I don't think you can play both.. Way too risky..
People have been spoilled by the rediculous numbers, and now that they wont get them, people are quick to scream "overvalued". Its just not the case.
LT went before Priest in just about every draft, and he will end up in the neighborhood of 1500-1900yds, and 15-20tds. And thats from a #1-#2 pick. How you can say a player that is taken after that that will put up similar numbers is overvalued is beyond me.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
There were a few issues that made this a bad play. Everyone thought this was a great insurance play, despite ignoring these issues.
1) What if Holmes gets injured early in the game? You've lost an entire game of Chiefs RB production.
2) What if LJ gets just enough carries to supress Priest's value to a late round RB, while not being consistent enough to warrant starting himself?
3) What if Holmes gets injured early and Larry isn't as good as advertised and falls apart after 6 or 7 games?
4) What if Holmes gets injured early in the season? You just wasted a 1st round pick on a guy you were predicting and almost hoping would get injured based on the early LJ pick.
I said it several times, I'll say it once more. If you were THAT afraid of Priest Holmes take another RB in the first and take LJ in the 5th.
At best you are going to get a wash on this. Priest slows down and gets outright replaced as the starter. Waste of a 1st rounder, good value on the 5th rounder. You probably could've gotten better value taking a different RB then taking LJ.
As far as all the people who said start both Priest and LJ... We'll track how that does over the season.
1) What if Holmes gets injured early in the game? You've lost an entire game of Chiefs RB production.
2) What if LJ gets just enough carries to supress Priest's value to a late round RB, while not being consistent enough to warrant starting himself?
3) What if Holmes gets injured early and Larry isn't as good as advertised and falls apart after 6 or 7 games?
4) What if Holmes gets injured early in the season? You just wasted a 1st round pick on a guy you were predicting and almost hoping would get injured based on the early LJ pick.
I said it several times, I'll say it once more. If you were THAT afraid of Priest Holmes take another RB in the first and take LJ in the 5th.
At best you are going to get a wash on this. Priest slows down and gets outright replaced as the starter. Waste of a 1st rounder, good value on the 5th rounder. You probably could've gotten better value taking a different RB then taking LJ.
As far as all the people who said start both Priest and LJ... We'll track how that does over the season.
stonegossard
Footballguy
Isn't this just week 2?
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I really didn't draft Priest (even though I took him at 1.03), or LJ (even though I took him at 5.03) - I drafted the Chiefs running game, which to me is the absolute safest play in Fantasy Football. Wait till they start playing some softer rushing D's.I drafted Priest/Chad Johnson/Westbrook/D. Bennett/LJ/Chambers/Steeler D with late QB types like A Brooks and Jake D in a 12 team redraft. I have the second highest points in the league. Also picked up guys with upside like Dayne in FA wires. My take is this. Sure, I may leave points on the bench until this shakes out, but it leaves me in a great position. Late in the year, I'm assured of having the KC running game. Chances are one of them will get nicked and the other will be a full-time starter. If so, I'm not trolling the waiver wires like others for a Nick Goings type. I'm set. If Westbrook or one of my other RB's has a bad matchup or a bye, I play both, and am confident I'll get reasonable production. Put it this way. Owners of the Priest/LJ combo aren't as worried about the situation as non-owners are. If our other position players deliver, our teams will be competitive all year - guaranteed. The combo is the best insurance play in fantasy football. all the LT/SA/McGahee/Edge owners cringe every time those guys limp. They may have their backups, but production would be miniscule compared to their first round studs. Not true with this combo. Besides, the talk about LJ being a wasted pick in the 5th round is comedy. I've already seen 4th and 5th round picks on the waiver wire. Happens every year. And with the enormous amount of early busts so far this year (CPep, JLew, Martin, K. Jones, etc.), it is odd that 2 RB's ranked 7th and 8th overall, even with split carries, would be declared a bust with "one of the worst strategies ever on this board". Couldn't disagree more.
That key to the right of the " key is your friend. Use it more. tia
GregR_2
Footballguy
No different than if any other starting RB gets injured, so no worse off that it's Priest/LJ.
This isn't possible unless the KC running game as a whole doesn't produce at the levels it has in the past, which are similar to the levels people are predicting for them this year. Last year, and so far into this year, they have produced enough fantasy running back points to have 2 guys in the top 10. If LJ is taking away points from Priest, he's either getting those points himself, or the KC running game takes a drastic step backwards.That of course is a legitimate risk, but again, the same thing can happen for LT or SA, the same as it happened for Jamal, Ahman Green, Marshall Faulk, etc.
Yes, a risk. But again, no different a risk than you have with any other RB. The same risk is there with Mewelde Moore or any other player.
And again, no different a risk than any other RB you take in the first round.
No, the problem is that you're just not understanding the value of the KC rushing attack. The argument before the season was that the KC rushing attack is going to outproduce others by enough that it's worth the price of a 1st and a 5th to get their rushing attack locked up.It doesn't matter if it's Priest getting 100% of the carries, LJ getting 100%, or both of them splitting in whatever manner you'd like. LJ at 30% of the carries is going to be a very serviceable RB3 who can fill in on your RB2's bye or in case of injuries. LJ at 50% is good enough to start for you.
The only realistic way this play doesn't work out is if the KC running game suffers a drop off in production, in actual # of TDs and in total yards. Which is definitely possible, but the same possibility exists for any team. Given that they produced well without Roaf, I feel even more assured they can continue this season at the level they have in the past.
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
Do you think he will eventually this year?? The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class. He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt. That means he's not going to earn his DP.. People lokoing at the rankings of RB.. How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL?? I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring. Is that earning his top 3 pick?? I don't think so..
Stinger Ray
Footballguy
IML, he's outscored all the RB's taken a head of him so far.
RBM
Footballguy
37th? Say what?Again, you really dont think Priest can average just 90 yards a game? Throw in almost a td a week, some weeks with 2, some with none. Now you tell me if you arent happy with 1400/16? Sounds elite to meDo you think he will eventually this year?? The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class. He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt. That means he's not going to earn his DP.. People lokoing at the rankings of RB.. How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL?? I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring. Is that earning his top 3 pick?? I don't think so..
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Holmes is #8 in my scoring system right now despite having the worst-case scenario for him come true in weeks 1&2. Right now, you're looking at a top-10 back as your RB1 as WORST CASE. Next possible situation is Holmes gets 60-70% of the TDs like he's getting 60-70% of the carries. Now you have a top 5 back easily. BEST CASE is one gets hurt and one stays healthy. Now you have the #1 RB.So, you have a ceiling of #1 RB and a floor of maybe #9 RB. Add to this that if you drafted an RB2 before LJ, you now have phenomenal depth. You have protection against injury, and you have very live trade bait.Do you think he will eventually this year?? The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class. He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt. That means he's not going to earn his DP.. People lokoing at the rankings of RB.. How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL?? I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring. Is that earning his top 3 pick?? I don't think so..
So, how is this a disaster again?
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
I don't think he will earn MORE carries as the weeks go on unless LJ gets hurt.. Look at his TD in the last game4-1-OAK8 (12:26) P.Holmes up the middle to OAK 5 for 3 yards (T.Kelly, K.Morrison).37th? Say what?Again, you really dont think Priest can average just 90 yards a game? Throw in almost a td a week, some weeks with 2, some with none. Now you tell me if you arent happy with 1400/16? Sounds elite to meDo you think he will eventually this year?? The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class. He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt. That means he's not going to earn his DP.. People lokoing at the rankings of RB.. How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL?? I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring. Is that earning his top 3 pick?? I don't think so..
1-5-OAK5 (11:43) P.Holmes left end to OAK 5 for no gain (D.Clark).
2-5-OAK5 (11:02) P.Holmes left tackle to OAK 5 for no gain (T.Washington).
3-5-OAK5 (10:19) T.Green pass to T.Gonzalez to OAK 1 for 4 yards (S.Schweigert).
4-1-OAK1 (9:35) P.Holmes up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN
If Gonzo got in what kind of game would Holmes have had?? He struggled.. This coming from my Raiders D which isn't tops in the league..
ZJilla
Footballguy
Holmes is #8 in my scoring system right now despite having the worst-case scenario for him come true in weeks 1&2. Right now, you're looking at a top-10 back as your RB1 as WORST CASE. Next possible situation is Holmes gets 60-70% of the TDs like he's getting 60-70% of the carries. Now you have a top 5 back easily. BEST CASE is one gets hurt and one stays healthy. Now you have the #1 RB.So, you have a ceiling of #1 RB and a floor of maybe #9 RB. Add to this that if you drafted an RB2 before LJ, you now have phenomenal depth. You have protection against injury, and you have very live trade bait.Do you think he will eventually this year?? The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class. He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt. That means he's not going to earn his DP.. People lokoing at the rankings of RB.. How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL?? I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring. Is that earning his top 3 pick?? I don't think so..
So, how is this a disaster again?
and with my #2 pick, I got Julius, and with a late flyer pick, I got Willie Parker.I'm really
over here.Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
10th ranking in RB's but 37th OVERALL.. With the rest of the QB's/WR/TE/.. Cause if you don't see the writting on the wall now your going to see it later. This isn't about weeks 1 and 2 only its about looking at future production and the facts are this is more of a RBBC then people thought when they drafted Holmes.. Its only going to get uglier.Holmes is #8 in my scoring system right now despite having the worst-case scenario for him come true in weeks 1&2. Right now, you're looking at a top-10 back as your RB1 as WORST CASE. Next possible situation is Holmes gets 60-70% of the TDs like he's getting 60-70% of the carries. Now you have a top 5 back easily. BEST CASE is one gets hurt and one stays healthy. Now you have the #1 RB.So, you have a ceiling of #1 RB and a floor of maybe #9 RB. Add to this that if you drafted an RB2 before LJ, you now have phenomenal depth. You have protection against injury, and you have very live trade bait.Do you think he will eventually this year?? The drafting of Holmes was in the ELITE class. He won't be there at all this year with LJ there unless LJ gets hurt. That means he's not going to earn his DP.. People lokoing at the rankings of RB.. How about where does Holmes rank OVERALL?? I can tell you he is the 37th best in Fanball scoring. Is that earning his top 3 pick?? I don't think so..
So, how is this a disaster again?
GregR_2
Footballguy
There is an article from about 5 years written by a guy named Joe Bryant that does a nice job of explaining to you why total fantasy points, and thus overall ranking, aren't a true measure of value when you are comparing between players at different positions.It's in the articles section. I highly suggest giving it a read. Most everyone around here already realizes his overall ranking is moot, it's how he scores compared to others at his position, and how the scoring at his position drops off.
