The Johan Santana rumor mill (1 Viewer)

[Funkley]

Geez, what a #### move by the radio station. Apparently it was a taped interview from 12:30 cdt. This could be way further along than we thought.

 

[shadyridr]

Workhorse, you post in the NYYFans forums?

 

[Funkley]

He didn't say anything specific about Nathan but unlike Santana, he thinks the Twins would likely get more for Nathan in July than they'd get now. Probably makes sense. Teams contending need bullpen help a lot more desperately in July than now.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Yeah but look at what the Brewers gave up for Linebrink. If they want Nathan they might just trade the Twins their entire Double A team.

 

[Finless]

I am confident in stating that the Red Sox will have completed a deal for Santana by late next week. All indications are that the deal may go down by Tuesday.

 

[[icon]]

Yeah but look at what the Brewers gave up for Linebrink. If they want Nathan they might just trade the Twins their entire Double A team.

 

[Koya]

Something to keep in mind - the FINAL say here is not with the Twins. Nor is it with the team trading for him in deciding how much to give up.

The final say is Santana. If Santana has a feeling that say, the Angels, will pay him considerably more than the Yanks or Sox, even if the Angels don't have that great a package, they could then be in the driver's seat re: negotiations.

Angels are only a random example. Could be the Mets, who do NOT have the goods (outside of Reyes) to get Santana but may be willing to give a bigger and/or longer contract therefore forcing the Twins hand, to a degree.

I still say its the Yanks though at this point. They will give the money and they have the Chips (of course, it doesnt hurt that they are able to spend far more than most teams to get those chips in the draft but thats for another thread.

 

[Michael Brown]

I'd just like it on record that I don't want to give up Hughes. I'd much rather a package centered around Kennedy to try and get Haren if anything. If the Red Sox get Santana because of that, fine. Next year's free agent pitching market should be outstanding. CC isn't getting traded in-season because the Tribe will be very good, and when he hits the market you go after him hard. I'd much prefer CC/Hughes/Kennedy in 2009 over just Johan.

I know I'll be killed for this, but a slight pitcher approaching 30 coming off his worst year (yes, still great by anyone else's standards) isn't a guy I necessarily want to give up multiple high-end prospects for. All we hear about is how an increase in HR ratio and decrease in K/BB ratio are the first warning signs of a pitcher getting older. Well, his K/BB ratio decreased again and his HR ratio was way up. Again, don't assume I'm questioning his abilities...just that he'll be 29 by next opening day and we've been burned enough giving away everything for guys that are *just* past their prime. And as great as he is right now, I don't see him improving upon what he is right now. He's a lot like Pedro was a few years ago. Unbelievable regular season pitcher, but not a guy that's going to give you 8/9 innings ever. Six CG in his career will attest to that. And if the Yanks are giving up Kennedy AND Hughes, that guarantees that Joba is in the rotation. Which means the back end of that pen is going to be shaky once again. Which means you'll need horses in the playoffs that'll give you 7/8 IP at least. Whether anyone chooses to acknowledge it or not, Johan hasn't shown he can be that guy in his 5 career playoff starts. Again, not saying he CAN'T...just that he hasn't yet, and I don't think it's more likely that he will than won't.

If pressed, I'd even rather trade Cano than Hughes. I'm not against dealing Kennedy/Melky/Tabata/Horne, but I'd highly doubt that that would get a deal done. If that's the case, so be it. If they get Johan and he wins 22 games and they win the WS, I'll enjoy my crow during the parade...but overall, I'm against this move.

 

[Koya]

For the Yanks fans unwilling to part with Hughes etc... don't overestimate the two in the bush. Often two in the bush = nothing over the long term.

You could not get much better as one in hand, as Santana.

Prospects sometimes dont work out. How many times has Hughes pitched 200 innings? Can he do it in back to back years... or in one year? While you cant be stupid like the mets and give up that potential for a question mark, you have to be willing to give up that potential for a guy that I bet you any sum of money is better than either of those prospects will ever be... because even Hughes is far from a guarantee from being the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL over a significant period of time.

 

[oneohh]

Are there any Twins fans that are upset about this? I know this thing is 8 pages deep and if this has been covered already I apologize in advance. I think he has 2 years left on his deal, right? Why this year? Why not next? I understand the risk, but why wouldn't you at least see how the season goes and trade him during the season when teams are a bit more desperate?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

For the Yanks fans unwilling to part with Hughes etc... don't overestimate the two in the bush. Often two in the bush = nothing over the long term.You could not get much better as one in hand, as Santana. Prospects sometimes dont work out. How many times has Hughes pitched 200 innings? Can he do it in back to back years... or in one year? While you cant be stupid like the mets and give up that potential for a question mark, you have to be willing to give up that potential for a guy that I bet you any sum of money is better than either of those prospects will ever be... because even Hughes is far from a guarantee from being the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL over a significant period of time.

This is an excellent point. I don't ever want the Tigers to trade Maybin, Miller, or Porcello for example but I realize sometimes looking back though things that a prospect is just that, a prospect. looking back through the years there have been so many prospects that were supposed to be the greatest of all time that never worked out. Andy Marte was the top prospect in the Red Sux organization two years ago. He's an afterthought in the Indians organization at the moment. Juan Encarcion was a "five tool prospect" for the Tigers. Now he's just a tool. Too many examples to note. If you are getting Santana you know what you are getting. The Yankees can just buy the Dominican Republic and guarantee they'll find five Phillip Hughes' in the next ten years. It's good to be King, just ask Britney Spears.

 

[30283]

Are there any Twins fans that are upset about this? I know this thing is 8 pages deep and if this has been covered already I apologize in advance. I think he has 2 years left on his deal, right? Why this year? Why not next? I understand the risk, but why wouldn't you at least see how the season goes and trade him during the season when teams are a bit more desperate?

He only has one year left.

 

[Reaper]

I know I'll be killed for this, but a slight pitcher approaching 30 coming off his worst year (yes, still great by anyone else's standards) isn't a guy I necessarily want to give up multiple high-end prospects for. All we hear about is how an increase in HR ratio and decrease in K/BB ratio are the first warning signs of a pitcher getting older. Well, his K/BB ratio decreased again and his HR ratio was way up. Again, don't assume I'm questioning his abilities...just that he'll be 29 by next opening day and we've been burned enough giving away everything for guys that are *just* past their prime. And as great as he is right now, I don't see him improving upon what he is right now. He's a lot like Pedro was a few years ago. Unbelievable regular season pitcher, but not a guy that's going to give you 8/9 innings ever. Six CG in his career will attest to that. And if the Yanks are giving up Kennedy AND Hughes, that guarantees that Joba is in the rotation. Which means the back end of that pen is going to be shaky once again. Which means you'll need horses in the playoffs that'll give you 7/8 IP at least. Whether anyone chooses to acknowledge it or not, Johan hasn't shown he can be that guy in his 5 career playoff starts. Again, not saying he CAN'T...just that he hasn't yet, and I don't think it's more likely that he will than won't.

Agreed.... I'm not sure I want to see the trade for the Yankees, and the long term contract.....

If I'm the Mets I jump into this.. He'd be a better NL pitcher and the Mets don't even have a #2.

 

[Darth Cheney]

For the Yanks fans unwilling to part with Hughes etc... don't overestimate the two in the bush. Often two in the bush = nothing over the long term.You could not get much better as one in hand, as Santana. Prospects sometimes dont work out. How many times has Hughes pitched 200 innings? Can he do it in back to back years... or in one year? While you cant be stupid like the mets and give up that potential for a question mark, you have to be willing to give up that potential for a guy that I bet you any sum of money is better than either of those prospects will ever be... because even Hughes is far from a guarantee from being the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL over a significant period of time.

This is an excellent point. I don't ever want the Tigers to trade Maybin, Miller, or Porcello for example but I realize sometimes looking back though things that a prospect is just that, a prospect. looking back through the years there have been so many prospects that were supposed to be the greatest of all time that never worked out. Andy Marte was the top prospect in the Red Sux organization two years ago. He's an afterthought in the Indians organization at the moment. Juan Encarcion was a "five tool prospect" for the Tigers. Now he's just a tool. Too many examples to note. If you are getting Santana you know what you are getting. The Yankees can just buy the Dominican Republic and guarantee they'll find five Phillip Hughes' in the next ten years. It's good to be King, just ask Britney Spears.

But what is too much? Most of the guys we are talking about ( Cano, Cabrera, Hughes, Chamberlain, Lester, Bucholz, Kennedy, Ellsbury) have shown something at the MLB level. It might have only been a few innings or a few at bats...but these guys aren't one,two are three year hopefuls but expected to contribute something this year to their teams. All eight players should have a job on their MLB teams this upcoming year. There is a real chance that any team that trades these players away could regret it this year.....

 

[Koya]

For the Yanks fans unwilling to part with Hughes etc... don't overestimate the two in the bush. Often two in the bush = nothing over the long term.You could not get much better as one in hand, as Santana. Prospects sometimes dont work out. How many times has Hughes pitched 200 innings? Can he do it in back to back years... or in one year? While you cant be stupid like the mets and give up that potential for a question mark, you have to be willing to give up that potential for a guy that I bet you any sum of money is better than either of those prospects will ever be... because even Hughes is far from a guarantee from being the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL over a significant period of time.

This is an excellent point. I don't ever want the Tigers to trade Maybin, Miller, or Porcello for example but I realize sometimes looking back though things that a prospect is just that, a prospect. looking back through the years there have been so many prospects that were supposed to be the greatest of all time that never worked out. Andy Marte was the top prospect in the Red Sux organization two years ago. He's an afterthought in the Indians organization at the moment. Juan Encarcion was a "five tool prospect" for the Tigers. Now he's just a tool. Too many examples to note. If you are getting Santana you know what you are getting. The Yankees can just buy the Dominican Republic and guarantee they'll find five Phillip Hughes' in the next ten years. It's good to be King, just ask Britney Spears.

But what is too much? Most of the guys we are talking about ( Cano, Cabrera, Hughes, Chamberlain, Lester, Bucholz, Kennedy, Ellsbury) have shown something at the MLB level. It might have only been a few innings or a few at bats...but these guys aren't one,two are three year hopefuls but expected to contribute something this year to their teams. All eight players should have a job on their MLB teams this upcoming year. There is a real chance that any team that trades these players away could regret it this year.....

Hughes and Kennedy have very little MLB experience. Chamberlain has definately shown something - in a LIMTED, LATE SEASON, RELIEF role. So even THAT is a long ways from a full season as a reliever, and definately being a top of the rotation full time full season after season starter. But taking Chamberlain off the table, we are talking primarily about the young pitchers, Hughes and Kennedy, who have had a VERY limited MLB sample size.This is the reason it is so hard to trade in FANTASY FOOTBALL. Because people are so afraid they will trade away a Priest Holmes the year before he gets 30 TDs... when 95% of the time pulling the trigger gives you a quality positive without wondering if you might reap some big reward down the road.ETA: People often talk about the "best trades are the ones you don't make" - what about when the WORST trade is the one that you did not pull the trigger on? That is no better than making a bad trade, and perhaps even worse, because you werent trying to better your team. I think this can be said at both our silly little fantasy football level, and in the big stakes game of getting a Santana on your team for the next 5-10 years.

 

[the moops]

I'd just like it on record that I don't want to give up Hughes. I'd much rather a package centered around Kennedy to try and get Haren if anything. If the Red Sox get Santana because of that, fine. Next year's free agent pitching market should be outstanding. CC isn't getting traded in-season because the Tribe will be very good, and when he hits the market you go after him hard. I'd much prefer CC/Hughes/Kennedy in 2009 over just Johan.

Well that is just a completely ridiculous hypothetical.First. No deal mentioned had the Yanks giving up both Hughes and Kennedy. So one of them would be there in 08 and 09.

Second. Why would the Yankees signing Johan to a 20 million/year contract preclude them from signing Sabathia (if he is available) in 09? They have routinely had very expensive starters in their rotation at the same time (K Brown, Petite, Clemens, Johnson, etc).

They will have dropped the ball big time if they refuse to trade Hughes. Hughes has such a minute chance of outperforming Santana over the next 6 years. I mean really minute. Like 1 in a million minute. If the Yankees were being payroll efficient, then yes, the difference in their salary and amount of years controlled would play a part...but money is not an issue.

And the same thing goes for the Sox. If they had to include Buchholz to get it down, they would be equally as foolish to not include him. For pretty much the same reasons.

 

[Darth Cheney]

For the Yanks fans unwilling to part with Hughes etc... don't overestimate the two in the bush. Often two in the bush = nothing over the long term.You could not get much better as one in hand, as Santana. Prospects sometimes dont work out. How many times has Hughes pitched 200 innings? Can he do it in back to back years... or in one year? While you cant be stupid like the mets and give up that potential for a question mark, you have to be willing to give up that potential for a guy that I bet you any sum of money is better than either of those prospects will ever be... because even Hughes is far from a guarantee from being the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL over a significant period of time.

This is an excellent point. I don't ever want the Tigers to trade Maybin, Miller, or Porcello for example but I realize sometimes looking back though things that a prospect is just that, a prospect. looking back through the years there have been so many prospects that were supposed to be the greatest of all time that never worked out. Andy Marte was the top prospect in the Red Sux organization two years ago. He's an afterthought in the Indians organization at the moment. Juan Encarcion was a "five tool prospect" for the Tigers. Now he's just a tool. Too many examples to note. If you are getting Santana you know what you are getting. The Yankees can just buy the Dominican Republic and guarantee they'll find five Phillip Hughes' in the next ten years. It's good to be King, just ask Britney Spears.

But what is too much? Most of the guys we are talking about ( Cano, Cabrera, Hughes, Chamberlain, Lester, Bucholz, Kennedy, Ellsbury) have shown something at the MLB level. It might have only been a few innings or a few at bats...but these guys aren't one,two are three year hopefuls but expected to contribute something this year to their teams. All eight players should have a job on their MLB teams this upcoming year. There is a real chance that any team that trades these players away could regret it this year.....

Hughes and Kennedy have very little MLB experience. Chamberlain has definately shown something - in a LIMTED, LATE SEASON, RELIEF role. So even THAT is a long ways from a full season as a reliever, and definately being a top of the rotation full time full season after season starter. But taking Chamberlain off the table, we are talking primarily about the young pitchers, Hughes and Kennedy, who have had a VERY limited MLB sample size.This is the reason it is so hard to trade in FANTASY FOOTBALL. Because people are so afraid they will trade away a Priest Holmes the year before he gets 30 TDs... when 95% of the time pulling the trigger gives you a quality positive without wondering if you might reap some big reward down the road.ETA: People often talk about the "best trades are the ones you don't make" - what about when the WORST trade is the one that you did not pull the trigger on? That is no better than making a bad trade, and perhaps even worse, because you werent trying to better your team. I think this can be said at both our silly little fantasy football level, and in the big stakes game of getting a Santana on your team for the next 5-10 years.

Then in your opinion, what is too much for Santana?EDITED TO ADD: and I'm not opposed to trading for Santana...I'm just not sure if I would give up two MLB ready pitchers (who by most all accounts are going to be good MLB pitchers) along with other players

 

[shadyridr]

From NoMass: An Interview with a Minnesota beat writer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoMaas

LM: How much in control of this situation is Johan Santana? Do you think he has a preference of where to play?

JS: I believe he has lots of control over this situation, and I've been told by people close to him that he wants to pitch in New York. Go back and look at his games in New York last year, and compare them with those pitch elsewhere. It looked to me like he was especially geared up to be spectacular in New York.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

For the Yanks fans unwilling to part with Hughes etc... don't overestimate the two in the bush. Often two in the bush = nothing over the long term.You could not get much better as one in hand, as Santana. Prospects sometimes dont work out. How many times has Hughes pitched 200 innings? Can he do it in back to back years... or in one year? While you cant be stupid like the mets and give up that potential for a question mark, you have to be willing to give up that potential for a guy that I bet you any sum of money is better than either of those prospects will ever be... because even Hughes is far from a guarantee from being the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL over a significant period of time.

This is an excellent point. I don't ever want the Tigers to trade Maybin, Miller, or Porcello for example but I realize sometimes looking back though things that a prospect is just that, a prospect. looking back through the years there have been so many prospects that were supposed to be the greatest of all time that never worked out. Andy Marte was the top prospect in the Red Sux organization two years ago. He's an afterthought in the Indians organization at the moment. Juan Encarcion was a "five tool prospect" for the Tigers. Now he's just a tool. Too many examples to note. If you are getting Santana you know what you are getting. The Yankees can just buy the Dominican Republic and guarantee they'll find five Phillip Hughes' in the next ten years. It's good to be King, just ask Britney Spears.

But what is too much? Most of the guys we are talking about ( Cano, Cabrera, Hughes, Chamberlain, Lester, Bucholz, Kennedy, Ellsbury) have shown something at the MLB level. It might have only been a few innings or a few at bats...but these guys aren't one,two are three year hopefuls but expected to contribute something this year to their teams. All eight players should have a job on their MLB teams this upcoming year. There is a real chance that any team that trades these players away could regret it this year.....

Red Sox traded Hanley ####### Ramirez away and they should never regret it based on what Beckett did this past year. Without him, they do not win the World Championship. Cabrera is overrated and outside of New York I'm not sure anyone thinks too much of him, Cano is streaky and we still need to see more, Bucholz had his day in the sun but what happens when teams are able to scout him? With all these pitchers you need a full season if not more. Seeing them dominate in the minors is swell but it doesn't mean a whole lot. You couldn't get me to trade Verlander for Chamberlain and Hughes, no way. Lets see how they handle the rigors of starting every 6th day. I'll guarantee you the first year or two aren't going to be all sugar and spice and everything nice. Chamberlain is the best bet but he's gonna struggle over the next couple of years, so will Bucholz and Hughes. Kennedy could be real good or he could be Jeff Weaver or worse. Lester seems like a more sure deal to me and Ellsbury of all these guys seems like the safest bet and the player I'd least likely deal. I just think if you can get Santana and you're the Yankees in particular, you do it. Unlike most of the other teams the Yankees can throw money to fill their holes. Almost everyone else has to develop players and then pray they can fill gaps in free agency. The Yankees can just outbid someone for the best available 2Bman and not have to worry about Johnny Stinkfinger at double A and his progression.

 

[TLEF316]

I'd just like it on record that I don't want to give up Hughes. I'd much rather a package centered around Kennedy to try and get Haren if anything. If the Red Sox get Santana because of that, fine. Next year's free agent pitching market should be outstanding. CC isn't getting traded in-season because the Tribe will be very good, and when he hits the market you go after him hard. I'd much prefer CC/Hughes/Kennedy in 2009 over just Johan.

I know I'll be killed for this, but a slight pitcher approaching 30 coming off his worst year (yes, still great by anyone else's standards) isn't a guy I necessarily want to give up multiple high-end prospects for. All we hear about is how an increase in HR ratio and decrease in K/BB ratio are the first warning signs of a pitcher getting older. Well, his K/BB ratio decreased again and his HR ratio was way up. Again, don't assume I'm questioning his abilities...just that he'll be 29 by next opening day and we've been burned enough giving away everything for guys that are *just* past their prime. And as great as he is right now, I don't see him improving upon what he is right now. He's a lot like Pedro was a few years ago. Unbelievable regular season pitcher, but not a guy that's going to give you 8/9 innings ever. Six CG in his career will attest to that. And if the Yanks are giving up Kennedy AND Hughes, that guarantees that Joba is in the rotation. Which means the back end of that pen is going to be shaky once again. Which means you'll need horses in the playoffs that'll give you 7/8 IP at least. Whether anyone chooses to acknowledge it or not, Johan hasn't shown he can be that guy in his 5 career playoff starts. Again, not saying he CAN'T...just that he hasn't yet, and I don't think it's more likely that he will than won't.

If pressed, I'd even rather trade Cano than Hughes. I'm not against dealing Kennedy/Melky/Tabata/Horne, but I'd highly doubt that that would get a deal done. If that's the case, so be it. If they get Johan and he wins 22 games and they win the WS, I'll enjoy my crow during the parade...but overall, I'm against this move.

Mike,What makes you think Sabathia is ever gonna see Free Agency? I don't see the Indians letting him hit the open market. I know cleveland has let some guys walk in the past, but this is a pitcher. I'll be shocked if they don't pay him.

Now, if the deal is Kennedy, Hughes, tabata and Melky, id probably have to walk away, but it would really hurt to have to see Santana, Beckett, Dice-K and Schilling the first time the yanks travel to fenway.

 

[Darth Cheney]

For the Yanks fans unwilling to part with Hughes etc... don't overestimate the two in the bush. Often two in the bush = nothing over the long term.

You could not get much better as one in hand, as Santana.

Prospects sometimes dont work out. How many times has Hughes pitched 200 innings? Can he do it in back to back years... or in one year? While you cant be stupid like the mets and give up that potential for a question mark, you have to be willing to give up that potential for a guy that I bet you any sum of money is better than either of those prospects will ever be... because even Hughes is far from a guarantee from being the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL over a significant period of time.

But what period of time is going to be the best pitcher in baseball for the club that trades for him? While his entire body of record might be better than the works of any of these young pitchers... I, along with all of the fans of the teams involved are only concerned with Johan Santana being the best pitcher in baseball for the time he is with my ball club.

 

[cobalt_27]

For the Yanks fans unwilling to part with Hughes etc... don't overestimate the two in the bush. Often two in the bush = nothing over the long term.

You could not get much better as one in hand, as Santana.

Prospects sometimes dont work out. How many times has Hughes pitched 200 innings? Can he do it in back to back years... or in one year? While you cant be stupid like the mets and give up that potential for a question mark, you have to be willing to give up that potential for a guy that I bet you any sum of money is better than either of those prospects will ever be... because even Hughes is far from a guarantee from being the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL over a significant period of time.

But what period of time is going to be the best pitcher in baseball for the club that trades for him? While his entire body of record might be better than the works of any of these young pitchers... I, along with all of the fans of the teams involved are only concerned with Johan Santana being the best pitcher in baseball for the time he is with my ball club.

Santana will be dominant into his mid-30s. I wouldn't be concerned about this whatsoever.

 

[Balco]

For the Yanks fans unwilling to part with Hughes etc... don't overestimate the two in the bush. Often two in the bush = nothing over the long term.

You could not get much better as one in hand, as Santana.

Prospects sometimes dont work out. How many times has Hughes pitched 200 innings? Can he do it in back to back years... or in one year? While you cant be stupid like the mets and give up that potential for a question mark, you have to be willing to give up that potential for a guy that I bet you any sum of money is better than either of those prospects will ever be... because even Hughes is far from a guarantee from being the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL over a significant period of time.

But what period of time is going to be the best pitcher in baseball for the club that trades for him? While his entire body of record might be better than the works of any of these young pitchers... I, along with all of the fans of the teams involved are only concerned with Johan Santana being the best pitcher in baseball for the time he is with my ball club.

What if I told you Santana signs a 6 year deal has 3 years at his recent performance, year 4 his ERA is about 4.00, and he is hurt for most of years 5 & 6? Would you still take him? I can tell you as a Red Sox fan, he is that good that I would take him in the above scenario. He is a #1, innings eating, strikeout, lefty ace!!! They aren't available very often. I know, the Yanks like the potential of some of their young pitchers. Well, there have been many a big sure thing prospect that has not lived up to the hype. You just never know. Remember the Mets big 3 pitchers who were going to bring them World Series after World Series? Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher, and Jason Isringhausen didn't exactly turn out to be All Star starters.

 

[shadyridr]

For the Yanks fans unwilling to part with Hughes etc... don't overestimate the two in the bush. Often two in the bush = nothing over the long term.You could not get much better as one in hand, as Santana. Prospects sometimes dont work out. How many times has Hughes pitched 200 innings? Can he do it in back to back years... or in one year? While you cant be stupid like the mets and give up that potential for a question mark, you have to be willing to give up that potential for a guy that I bet you any sum of money is better than either of those prospects will ever be... because even Hughes is far from a guarantee from being the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL over a significant period of time.

This is an excellent point. I don't ever want the Tigers to trade Maybin, Miller, or Porcello for example but I realize sometimes looking back though things that a prospect is just that, a prospect. looking back through the years there have been so many prospects that were supposed to be the greatest of all time that never worked out. Andy Marte was the top prospect in the Red Sux organization two years ago. He's an afterthought in the Indians organization at the moment. Juan Encarcion was a "five tool prospect" for the Tigers. Now he's just a tool. Too many examples to note. If you are getting Santana you know what you are getting. The Yankees can just buy the Dominican Republic and guarantee they'll find five Phillip Hughes' in the next ten years. It's good to be King, just ask Britney Spears.

But what is too much? Most of the guys we are talking about ( Cano, Cabrera, Hughes, Chamberlain, Lester, Bucholz, Kennedy, Ellsbury) have shown something at the MLB level. It might have only been a few innings or a few at bats...but these guys aren't one,two are three year hopefuls but expected to contribute something this year to their teams. All eight players should have a job on their MLB teams this upcoming year. There is a real chance that any team that trades these players away could regret it this year.....

Red Sox traded Hanley ####### Ramirez away and they should never regret it based on what Beckett did this past year. Without him, they do not win the World Championship. Cabrera is overrated and outside of New York I'm not sure anyone thinks too much of him, Cano is streaky and we still need to see more, Bucholz had his day in the sun but what happens when teams are able to scout him? With all these pitchers you need a full season if not more. Seeing them dominate in the minors is swell but it doesn't mean a whole lot. You couldn't get me to trade Verlander for Chamberlain and Hughes, no way. Lets see how they handle the rigors of starting every 6th day. I'll guarantee you the first year or two aren't going to be all sugar and spice and everything nice. Chamberlain is the best bet but he's gonna struggle over the next couple of years, so will Bucholz and Hughes. Kennedy could be real good or he could be Jeff Weaver or worse. Lester seems like a more sure deal to me and Ellsbury of all these guys seems like the safest bet and the player I'd least likely deal. I just think if you can get Santana and you're the Yankees in particular, you do it. Unlike most of the other teams the Yankees can throw money to fill their holes. Almost everyone else has to develop players and then pray they can fill gaps in free agency. The Yankees can just outbid someone for the best available 2Bman and not have to worry about Johnny Stinkfinger at double A and his progression.

I pretty much agree with everything you wrote but the Twins want more than one guy for Santana. The question is how much is too much?

 

[Koya]

For the Yanks fans unwilling to part with Hughes etc... don't overestimate the two in the bush. Often two in the bush = nothing over the long term.You could not get much better as one in hand, as Santana. Prospects sometimes dont work out. How many times has Hughes pitched 200 innings? Can he do it in back to back years... or in one year? While you cant be stupid like the mets and give up that potential for a question mark, you have to be willing to give up that potential for a guy that I bet you any sum of money is better than either of those prospects will ever be... because even Hughes is far from a guarantee from being the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL over a significant period of time.

This is an excellent point. I don't ever want the Tigers to trade Maybin, Miller, or Porcello for example but I realize sometimes looking back though things that a prospect is just that, a prospect. looking back through the years there have been so many prospects that were supposed to be the greatest of all time that never worked out. Andy Marte was the top prospect in the Red Sux organization two years ago. He's an afterthought in the Indians organization at the moment. Juan Encarcion was a "five tool prospect" for the Tigers. Now he's just a tool. Too many examples to note. If you are getting Santana you know what you are getting. The Yankees can just buy the Dominican Republic and guarantee they'll find five Phillip Hughes' in the next ten years. It's good to be King, just ask Britney Spears.

But what is too much? Most of the guys we are talking about ( Cano, Cabrera, Hughes, Chamberlain, Lester, Bucholz, Kennedy, Ellsbury) have shown something at the MLB level. It might have only been a few innings or a few at bats...but these guys aren't one,two are three year hopefuls but expected to contribute something this year to their teams. All eight players should have a job on their MLB teams this upcoming year. There is a real chance that any team that trades these players away could regret it this year.....

Hughes and Kennedy have very little MLB experience. Chamberlain has definately shown something - in a LIMTED, LATE SEASON, RELIEF role. So even THAT is a long ways from a full season as a reliever, and definately being a top of the rotation full time full season after season starter. But taking Chamberlain off the table, we are talking primarily about the young pitchers, Hughes and Kennedy, who have had a VERY limited MLB sample size.This is the reason it is so hard to trade in FANTASY FOOTBALL. Because people are so afraid they will trade away a Priest Holmes the year before he gets 30 TDs... when 95% of the time pulling the trigger gives you a quality positive without wondering if you might reap some big reward down the road.ETA: People often talk about the "best trades are the ones you don't make" - what about when the WORST trade is the one that you did not pull the trigger on? That is no better than making a bad trade, and perhaps even worse, because you werent trying to better your team. I think this can be said at both our silly little fantasy football level, and in the big stakes game of getting a Santana on your team for the next 5-10 years.

Then in your opinion, what is too much for Santana?EDITED TO ADD: and I'm not opposed to trading for Santana...I'm just not sure if I would give up two MLB ready pitchers (who by most all accounts are going to be good MLB pitchers) along with other players

What is too much? Cano. Because he has SHOWN it on this level. And actually, if push came to shove, Id rather have Santana on my team than Cano... so saying that no unproven minor leaguer who has less than 100 IP in the majors would stand in the way... any combo of two of them, no matter how highly rated. I guess that would be a good line.

 

[Alias]

From NYYFans.com: from a respected poster named "Ed Barrow"

"This is offical. I have been a longtime member here and I only post when I have news to report.It will beJohan Santana to Boston for Coco Crisp, Clay Buchholz, Micheal Bowden and Jed Lowrie.The Red Sox now have a window to work out a long term deal with Johan.I am willing to stake my membership on the line if Johan is not with the Red Sox by Monday. This will happen.I honestly have no words for this... I am really uspet."

When questioned on it he stated:

" I work for a minor league baseball team that may or may not be impacted by this deal. I can not say anymore then that. I'm sorry."

FWIW he's stated the paperwork has come across his desk. This would explain the Twins trading away their starting SS if the deal is already in place. Take with a grain of salt but the same deal is now being reported at SOSH as well.

I drank a lot tonight ......and this is starting to make sense. Boston has Lester and Buchholz, NYY have Kennedy and Hughes - if Boston can get a deal done with Buchholz for Santana it is the right thing to do, particularly if they only need to give up Crisp and can keep Ellsbury and still have Lester as a potentially strong #2 down the road if he can work on his command.

 

[Alias]

I have looked at SOSH a few times and did not see any news of this, was it buried in the Santana thread or in one of the "sandbox" threads?

 

[Michael Brown]

I'd just like it on record that I don't want to give up Hughes. I'd much rather a package centered around Kennedy to try and get Haren if anything. If the Red Sox get Santana because of that, fine. Next year's free agent pitching market should be outstanding. CC isn't getting traded in-season because the Tribe will be very good, and when he hits the market you go after him hard. I'd much prefer CC/Hughes/Kennedy in 2009 over just Johan.

Well that is just a completely ridiculous hypothetical.First. No deal mentioned had the Yanks giving up both Hughes and Kennedy. So one of them would be there in 08 and 09.

Second. Why would the Yankees signing Johan to a 20 million/year contract preclude them from signing Sabathia (if he is available) in 09? They have routinely had very expensive starters in their rotation at the same time (K Brown, Petite, Clemens, Johnson, etc).

They will have dropped the ball big time if they refuse to trade Hughes. Hughes has such a minute chance of outperforming Santana over the next 6 years. I mean really minute. Like 1 in a million minute. If the Yankees were being payroll efficient, then yes, the difference in their salary and amount of years controlled would play a part...but money is not an issue.

And the same thing goes for the Sox. If they had to include Buchholz to get it down, they would be equally as foolish to not include him. For pretty much the same reasons.

First. Several scenarios have included Hughes and Kennedy, if the Sox decide to part with Ellsbury. The thinking being that the Yanks need to give up the two of them in order to better the Boston end. Mike and the Mad Dog were talking about precisely this possibility this afternoon.Second. They aren't going to carry two pitchers at $20 mil (or close to it) PLUS A-Rod at $28 mil PLUS Posada and Jeter and Mariano and Damon and Matsui with Cano hitting arbitration shortly. Yes, even the Yankees have a ceiling on spending. When they had those expensive starters in the rotation, they didn't also have $45 million per year tied up in just the left side of the infield.

And I know you were exaggerating for effect, but I would certainly put the chances of Hughes outperforming Johan at significantly better than a million to one. Yes, Johan has the experience. No, Hughes does not. But he showed his stuff with the near no-hitter last year and pitched extremely well in the ALDS. It's unlikely that he'll ever put up the type of regular season stats that Johan will. What I want him for is to be a playoff ace. I'd much rather win with him than Santana. I watched two young kids on the Marlins mow us down in 2003 in Penny and Beckett, then I watched more youth take us apart over the next few years in Lackey, Carmona, Bonderman. I know it's not the ONLY way to win, but it seems to be the most rewarding.

I'll acknowledge that a lot of it is the whole "hired gun" mentality. It's been fun to watch these kids come up the past few years and contribute. It's an exciting team. Yes, we all want to have our teams win and win big and win now and win often. And I know some will disagree with me here and call me ridiculous, but right now I'd rather win one WS title over the next five years with home-grown guys and youth than win 2 with guys like Johan or even Haren and Sabathia. It's a little more satisfying in my opinion. Feel free to disagree, it's only my opinion and everyone is entitled to their own. And I realize the whole team won't be all be home-grown because that's the nature of the game...but having more is certainly more fun. I know Shady and Yankee23 and some of the other Yank fans on here agree with me when we say that this season was one of the most fun seasons to be a Yankee fan in recent years. Sure it ended with a disappointment, but it was enjoyable nonetheless.

But like I said (trying not to completely contradict myself), if Johan brings us a ring I'm not gonna sit there and lament my poor fate that we weren't able to win it "how I wanted". I'll be happy as anyone...just that right now I'd prefer seeing Phil on the mound for a Game 7 victory.

 

[the moops]

Second. They aren't going to carry two pitchers at $20 mil (or close to it) PLUS A-Rod at $28 mil PLUS Posada and Jeter and Mariano and Damon and Matsui with Cano hitting arbitration shortly. Yes, even the Yankees have a ceiling on spending. When they had those expensive starters in the rotation, they didn't also have $45 million per year tied up in just the left side of the infield.

They had 44 million tied up with Jeter and Arod this year. Santana's money would only take less than 1/2 the place of Clemens+Petite+Mussina.Yankees really dont have a ceiling.

 

[Max hardcore]

I'd much rather a package centered around Kennedy to try and get Haren if anything.

Ian Kennedy. Do we get Melky Cabrera too!?!?

 

[Max hardcore]

Seeing them dominate in the minors is swell but it doesn't mean a whole lot.

Just when I think you can't possibly sink to levels of dumbness previously unattained, there you go hitting new lows.

 

[icon]

From NYYFans.com: from a respected poster named "Ed Barrow"

"This is offical. I have been a longtime member here and I only post when I have news to report.It will beJohan Santana to Boston for Coco Crisp, Clay Buchholz, Micheal Bowden and Jed Lowrie.The Red Sox now have a window to work out a long term deal with Johan.I am willing to stake my membership on the line if Johan is not with the Red Sox by Monday. This will happen.I honestly have no words for this... I am really uspet."

When questioned on it he stated:

" I work for a minor league baseball team that may or may not be impacted by this deal. I can not say anymore then that. I'm sorry."

FWIW he's stated the paperwork has come across his desk. This would explain the Twins trading away their starting SS if the deal is already in place. Take with a grain of salt but the same deal is now being reported at SOSH as well.

I drank a lot tonight ......and this is starting to make sense. Boston has Lester and Buchholz, NYY have Kennedy and Hughes - if Boston can get a deal done with Buchholz for Santana it is the right thing to do, particularly if they only need to give up Crisp and can keep Ellsbury and still have Lester as a potentially strong #2 down the road if he can work on his command.

I just got in and I can assure you I drank more.... I am not sold on Santana... call me the pessimist. Time for 25oz of water and a pillow

 

[pigskin pimp]

When the Twins had another lefty Cy Young winner available back in the day, the key piece of the trade was a pitcher by the name of David West. The guy was a 6-6 lefty can't miss prospect, the next big thing. When the Twins traded Frank Viola to the Mets, West was the centerpiece of the deal.

It's a good thing that they also received P Kevin Tapani and P Rick Aguilera in the deal, otherwise...

Viola went 20-12 with a 2.67 era for the Mets the next year. David West went 15-18 with an era that averaged over 5 for his Twin career.

Just saying, if you want the premier lefty in the game, sometimes you have to give that can't miss prospect to get him. Let's see if this one turns out a little better for Minnesota.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Seeing them dominate in the minors is swell but it doesn't mean a whole lot.

Just when I think you can't possibly sink to levels of dumbness previously unattained, there you go hitting new lows.

Thanks Truck. You know how much I value your input.

 

[David Yudkin]

Santana needs extension to waive no-trade

Link By Nick Cafardo, Globe Staff November 29, 07 05:39 PM

Any deal made for Johan Santana would require that the coveted left-hander receive a contract extension before he'd be willing to waive a no-trade clause according to a source close to the talks. The teams would have to agree to a deal and a window of time would be granted for the new team and Santana to agree to a deal. At least those were the Johan Rules as of late Thursday night.

As of early evening last night Santana's agent had not yet begun negotiating with any team regarding a contract extension for the Minnesota Twins' prized lefthanded starter, according to a major league source.

If contract discussions were underway, that would be a sign that a trade had been agreed to. Santana can be a free agent after next season, and securing him long term would seem to be critical for any team willing to part with top prospects and more. Evidenlty it's also an important component for Santana.

The Red Sox appear to be heavily involved, according to the source. Also in the hunt are the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers and possibly the Seattle Mariners.

According to a couple of major league sources, the Sox would be willing to part with lefthander Jon Lester over Clay Buchholz and minor league pitcher Michael Bowden over minor league pitcher Justin Masterson. The Sox prefer the Twins take Coco Crisp over Jacoby Ellsbury but if they did that means the Sox would have to kick in another significant prospect. While sources did not confirm a name, ESPN reported it might be shortstop Jed Lowrie.

The Twins are still trying to sort out who is willing to offer what. The Yankees are still very much in the hunt, with their talks centering around Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano. The Angels appear to have the ability to make a deal quicker than anyone else because they have talented young players and an abundance of pitching after they acquired Jon Garland from the White Sox in exchange for former Red Sox shortstop Orlando Cabrera.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Olney thinks it will still be the Yankees BUT he did hear a 1/2 hour ago that there may be a deal in place.......Lester/Lowrie/Crisp/Bowden.

I think the Yankees still get Santana too.....but as a Sox fan, I would be happy to see this deal get done and keeping Bucholz.

The Red Sox would be very happy with this deal; keeping Buchholz, Ellsbury and Pedroia is a deal you have to make. I think that is the equivalent of the Yanks getting to keep Cano, Joba and Hughes/Kennedy.As for the post about Manny, the Red Sox have been trying to move Manny and his contract and have found no takers

 

[David Yudkin]

Olney thinks it will still be the Yankees BUT he did hear a 1/2 hour ago that there may be a deal in place.......Lester/Lowrie/Crisp/Bowden.

I think the Yankees still get Santana too.....but as a Sox fan, I would be happy to see this deal get done and keeping Bucholz.

The Red Sox would be very happy with this deal; keeping Buchholz, Ellsbury and Pedroia is a deal you have to make. I think that is the equivalent of the Yanks getting to keep Cano, Joba and Hughes/Kennedy.As for the post about Manny, the Red Sox have been trying to move Manny and his contract and have found no takers

They were discussing Manny on the local cable shows last night and concluded that Manny for $20M = a deal compared to some of the other contracts getting done these days. However, they felt that the Sox were unlikely to pick up Manny's two option years as Theo does not like to pay that much for guys in their mid-30s (Manny will be 35 in May).

 

[Liquid Tension]

I'd just like it on record that I don't want to give up Hughes. I'd much rather a package centered around Kennedy to try and get Haren if anything. If the Red Sox get Santana because of that, fine. Next year's free agent pitching market should be outstanding. CC isn't getting traded in-season because the Tribe will be very good, and when he hits the market you go after him hard. I'd much prefer CC/Hughes/Kennedy in 2009 over just Johan.

I know I'll be killed for this, but a slight pitcher approaching 30 coming off his worst year (yes, still great by anyone else's standards) isn't a guy I necessarily want to give up multiple high-end prospects for. All we hear about is how an increase in HR ratio and decrease in K/BB ratio are the first warning signs of a pitcher getting older. Well, his K/BB ratio decreased again and his HR ratio was way up. Again, don't assume I'm questioning his abilities...just that he'll be 29 by next opening day and we've been burned enough giving away everything for guys that are *just* past their prime. And as great as he is right now, I don't see him improving upon what he is right now. He's a lot like Pedro was a few years ago. Unbelievable regular season pitcher, but not a guy that's going to give you 8/9 innings ever. Six CG in his career will attest to that. And if the Yanks are giving up Kennedy AND Hughes, that guarantees that Joba is in the rotation. Which means the back end of that pen is going to be shaky once again. Which means you'll need horses in the playoffs that'll give you 7/8 IP at least. Whether anyone chooses to acknowledge it or not, Johan hasn't shown he can be that guy in his 5 career playoff starts. Again, not saying he CAN'T...just that he hasn't yet, and I don't think it's more likely that he will than won't.

If pressed, I'd even rather trade Cano than Hughes. I'm not against dealing Kennedy/Melky/Tabata/Horne, but I'd highly doubt that that would get a deal done. If that's the case, so be it. If they get Johan and he wins 22 games and they win the WS, I'll enjoy my crow during the parade...but overall, I'm against this move.

I don't agree with all of it but I like when someone takes a stance different than the norm. As for Santana's postseason performance it is not a large enough sample size to make any conclusions and in fact he has pitched well in his last 3 starts. In relief Santana go hit around and then in 2003 he allowed 6 runs in 7 2/3 innings, but in his last 3 starts in 2004 and 2006 he has allowed only 3 runs in 20 innings with 5 walks and 20 k's. Therefore he has been solid in the postseason and there is no reason to expect him not be.

As for the ratios showing him in slight decline...yes his walk to K ratio have gone from 5.29 - 5.21 - 4.52 last year (which is still darn good), but his K per IP ratio has gone up from 1.03 - 1.04 - 1.07 as well. FWIW, his WHIP has gone up as well from 0.97 - 1.00 - 1.07 over the same period. The main issue this year was a spike of almost 50% to his HR's (23-33). That is concerning but it just might have been one of those years? I still think he is the best pitcher in the game and one year is not a trend to me. i also like that he has pitched in the AL; this is very important to me as I would always take the guy who has pitched in the AL compared to an NL guy only.

As for Hughes, I wouldn't be afraid to give him up if I am the Yanks. Also, don't underestimate the importance of the Yanks getting a lefty, especially when they have none in the pen. It is a disgrace that a team like the Yanks (or anyone for that matter) didn't have a single lefty in the bullpen in the post season. Talk about making it easy to set your lineup on the other side. You could stack all your lefties at the top of the order and you NEVER have to worry about a lefty coming in.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Olney thinks it will still be the Yankees BUT he did hear a 1/2 hour ago that there may be a deal in place.......Lester/Lowrie/Crisp/Bowden.

I think the Yankees still get Santana too.....but as a Sox fan, I would be happy to see this deal get done and keeping Bucholz.

The Red Sox would be very happy with this deal; keeping Buchholz, Ellsbury and Pedroia is a deal you have to make. I think that is the equivalent of the Yanks getting to keep Cano, Joba and Hughes/Kennedy.As for the post about Manny, the Red Sox have been trying to move Manny and his contract and have found no takers

They were discussing Manny on the local cable shows last night and concluded that Manny for $20M = a deal compared to some of the other contracts getting done these days. However, they felt that the Sox were unlikely to pick up Manny's two option years as Theo does not like to pay that much for guys in their mid-30s (Manny will be 35 in May).

yeah, but for the smart reasons Theo expresses, I don't see anyone wanting to give up anything to get manny for 20 mil.

 

[wilked]

Olney says that ultimately he thinks the Yankees will give up Hughes and secure Santana

 

[Liquid Tension]

I think we could spend a lot of time analyzing all the players involved, but I did think it is interesting to see what the feeling here is about Coco or Melky as more valuable.

Melky is 5 years younger and only 23 years old so he is a "prospect" that has been up for a few years. I think people forget that he is only 23. I write a Yankee blog and I commented when Melky was 22 that he has the ability to become a very good player as he packs on some muscle as he was a "weak" .750 OPS hitter on 2006. Unfortunately he regressed last year. but, he is only 23 years old and some prospects are that age.

Taking SB's into account they each have an adjusted OPS of around .735. Offensively you could argue they are equal.

Defensively, Melky has a weapon in his arm and Coco can't throw, but Coco can get to balls Melky can't. It is up for debate and it is very close, but Coco's tracking I think would make him a slightly more valuable defensively. I guess I am saying that they are roughly equal players with Coco in his prime and Melky with a lot more upside. If I had to evaluate who I want, my answer would be Melky for his upside (the contracts would also be a small edge to Melky)

If anyone wants to do the pitchers feel free. Off the the short viewing of the pitchers, my order of value is Buchholz, Hughes, Lester and Kennedy (but they are very close).

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Great minor league players:

Ron Kittle

Brandon Watson

Dan Collier

Lets look at Matt Drews. Drews was a top 50 prospect and a top ten pitching prospect in the Yankees organization.

Year Team Lg Age Org Level W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP GB% 1994 Oneonta NYPL 19 Nyy A- 7 6 2.10 14 14 1 1 0 0 90.0 76 31 21 1 19 69 3 0 7.60 0.10 1.90 6.90 1.06 -- 1995 Tampa FSL 20 Nyy A+ 15 7 2.27 28 28 3 0 0 0 182.0 142 73 46 5 58 140 8 2 7.02 0.25 2.87 6.92 1.10 --He was off the charts in 94 and 95 and he never made it to the show. What about Rueben Rivera? Rivera was the #2 prospect in baseball in 1995 coming off huge years at the single and double A levels. Yankees dealt him for Hideki Irabu and they didn't regret it even if Irabu wans't very good. Rivera a successful minor leaguer never panned out.

What about Bill Pulsipher? He was a top ten prospect. He had very good years at every level of the Mets organization didn't he? What ever happened to him? I believe he's pitching in the Independent League now or maybe out of baseball.

Here are a few more from the 1995/96 top prospects list:

Mike Newfield

Alex Ochoa

Michael Tucker

CJ Nitkowski

T. Beamon

R. Cedeno

T. Goodwin

Now there was also Jason Schmidt, Derrick Jeter, A-Rod, Bobby Abreau, Phil Nevin, Carlos Guillen, and a few others on that list but for the most part the majority of the top 100 didn't pan out. There was some data on this after a study was done looking at ten years of prospects and it found that top prospects (most of them who had fine minor league stats) had about the same chance at failing that they did at succeeding at the big league level. Just looking back at 2001 kind of proves that.

Top 20 Baseball Prospectus prospects from 2001:

1. Nick Johnson, 1B, New York (AL) (BA: #5, Sickels: #5)

2. Rick Ankiel, LHP, St. Louis (BA: #1, Sickels: #2)

3. Pat Burrell, 1B/LF, Philadelphia (BA: #2, Sickels: #3)

4. Sean Burroughs, 3B, San Diego (BA: #7, Sickels: #9)

5. Vernon Wells, CF, Toronto (BA: #4, Sickels: #4)

6. Rafael Furcal, SS, Atlanta (BA: #8, Sickels: #15)

7. Ruben Mateo, OF, Texas (BA: #6, Sickels: #12)

8. Ben Petrick, C, Colorado (BA: #35, Sickels: #8)

9. Corey Patterson, CF, Chicago (NL) (BA: #3, Sickels: #1)

10. Michael Cuddyer, 3B, Minnesota (BA: #18, Sickels: #10)

11. Dee Brown, OF, Kansas City (BA: #11, Sickels: #6)

12. Kip Wells, RHP, Chicago (AL) (BA: #14, Sickels: #7)

13. Jack Cust, OF/1B, Arizona (BA: #31, Sickels: #35)

14. Tony Armas Jr., RHP, Montreal (BA: #27, Sickels: #33)

15. D'Angelo Jimenez, SS, New York (AL) (BA: #89, Sickels: #11)

16. Peter Bergeron, CF, Montreal (BA: #61, Sickels: #28)

17. Chin-Feng Chen, RF, Los Angeles (BA: #17, Sickels: #14)

18. Esteban German, 2B, Oakland (BA: NR, Sickels: C+)

19. Matt Riley, LHP, Baltimore (BA: #15, Sickels: #17)

20. Lance Berkman, LF, Houston (BA: #37, Sickels: #43)

So of those guys they got it really right with Berkman and Wells but outside of that there are no stars on that list. Cuddyer, Johnson, Burroughs and Burrell have had their moments but probably nothing worthy of that high of a ranking. Some of the others are still in the minors like Bergeron and Riley while Ben Petrick Chin-Feng Chen are out of baseball. Petrick had some very fine minor league seasons too.

Although minor league development is critical and good statistical seasons can be an indicator of a better than likely chance of success, it's still only the first few steps up a long stair case. Obviously all players must have some suceess at the minor league levels just to get to the show, but those stats don't always translate well.

Back to you MH.

 

[shadyridr]

I'd just like it on record that I don't want to give up Hughes. I'd much rather a package centered around Kennedy to try and get Haren if anything. If the Red Sox get Santana because of that, fine. Next year's free agent pitching market should be outstanding. CC isn't getting traded in-season because the Tribe will be very good, and when he hits the market you go after him hard. I'd much prefer CC/Hughes/Kennedy in 2009 over just Johan.

Well that is just a completely ridiculous hypothetical.First. No deal mentioned had the Yanks giving up both Hughes and Kennedy. So one of them would be there in 08 and 09.

Second. Why would the Yankees signing Johan to a 20 million/year contract preclude them from signing Sabathia (if he is available) in 09? They have routinely had very expensive starters in their rotation at the same time (K Brown, Petite, Clemens, Johnson, etc).

They will have dropped the ball big time if they refuse to trade Hughes. Hughes has such a minute chance of outperforming Santana over the next 6 years. I mean really minute. Like 1 in a million minute. If the Yankees were being payroll efficient, then yes, the difference in their salary and amount of years controlled would play a part...but money is not an issue.

And the same thing goes for the Sox. If they had to include Buchholz to get it down, they would be equally as foolish to not include him. For pretty much the same reasons.

First. Several scenarios have included Hughes and Kennedy, if the Sox decide to part with Ellsbury. The thinking being that the Yanks need to give up the two of them in order to better the Boston end. Mike and the Mad Dog were talking about precisely this possibility this afternoon.Second. They aren't going to carry two pitchers at $20 mil (or close to it) PLUS A-Rod at $28 mil PLUS Posada and Jeter and Mariano and Damon and Matsui with Cano hitting arbitration shortly. Yes, even the Yankees have a ceiling on spending. When they had those expensive starters in the rotation, they didn't also have $45 million per year tied up in just the left side of the infield.

And I know you were exaggerating for effect, but I would certainly put the chances of Hughes outperforming Johan at significantly better than a million to one. Yes, Johan has the experience. No, Hughes does not. But he showed his stuff with the near no-hitter last year and pitched extremely well in the ALDS. It's unlikely that he'll ever put up the type of regular season stats that Johan will. What I want him for is to be a playoff ace. I'd much rather win with him than Santana. I watched two young kids on the Marlins mow us down in 2003 in Penny and Beckett, then I watched more youth take us apart over the next few years in Lackey, Carmona, Bonderman. I know it's not the ONLY way to win, but it seems to be the most rewarding.

I'll acknowledge that a lot of it is the whole "hired gun" mentality. It's been fun to watch these kids come up the past few years and contribute. It's an exciting team. Yes, we all want to have our teams win and win big and win now and win often. And I know some will disagree with me here and call me ridiculous, but right now I'd rather win one WS title over the next five years with home-grown guys and youth than win 2 with guys like Johan or even Haren and Sabathia. It's a little more satisfying in my opinion. Feel free to disagree, it's only my opinion and everyone is entitled to their own. And I realize the whole team won't be all be home-grown because that's the nature of the game...but having more is certainly more fun. I know Shady and Yankee23 and some of the other Yank fans on here agree with me when we say that this season was one of the most fun seasons to be a Yankee fan in recent years. Sure it ended with a disappointment, but it was enjoyable nonetheless.

But like I said (trying not to completely contradict myself), if Johan brings us a ring I'm not gonna sit there and lament my poor fate that we weren't able to win it "how I wanted". I'll be happy as anyone...just that right now I'd prefer seeing Phil on the mound for a Game 7 victory.

pretty much agree with everything you said

 

[shadyridr]

I think we could spend a lot of time analyzing all the players involved, but I did think it is interesting to see what the feeling here is about Coco or Melky as more valuable.Melky is 5 years younger and only 23 years old so he is a "prospect" that has been up for a few years. I think people forget that he is only 23. I write a Yankee blog and I commented when Melky was 22 that he has the ability to become a very good player as he packs on some muscle as he was a "weak" .750 OPS hitter on 2006. Unfortunately he regressed last year. but, he is only 23 years old and some prospects are that age.Taking SB's into account they each have an adjusted OPS of around .735. Offensively you could argue they are equal.Defensively, Melky has a weapon in his arm and Coco can't throw, but Coco can get to balls Melky can't. It is up for debate and it is very close, but Coco's tracking I think would make him a slightly more valuable defensively. I guess I am saying that they are roughly equal players with Coco in his prime and Melky with a lot more upside. If I had to evaluate who I want, my answer would be Melky for his upside (the contracts would also be a small edge to Melky)If anyone wants to do the pitchers feel free. Off the the short viewing of the pitchers, my order of value is Buchholz, Hughes, Lester and Kennedy (but they are very close).

Ive said the same thing. Cabrera has equal value to Crisp. I dont think many here are disputing that. As for the pitchers Id rank them: Hughes, Buckholz, Lester, Kennedy with not much difference between Hughes and Buck and not much difference between Lester and Kennedy.

 

[shadyridr]

Santana needs extension to waive no-tradeLink By Nick Cafardo, Globe Staff November 29, 07 05:39 PMAny deal made for Johan Santana would require that the coveted left-hander receive a contract extension before he'd be willing to waive a no-trade clause according to a source close to the talks. The teams would have to agree to a deal and a window of time would be granted for the new team and Santana to agree to a deal. At least those were the Johan Rules as of late Thursday night.As of early evening last night Santana's agent had not yet begun negotiating with any team regarding a contract extension for the Minnesota Twins' prized lefthanded starter, according to a major league source.If contract discussions were underway, that would be a sign that a trade had been agreed to. Santana can be a free agent after next season, and securing him long term would seem to be critical for any team willing to part with top prospects and more. Evidenlty it's also an important component for Santana.The Red Sox appear to be heavily involved, according to the source. Also in the hunt are the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers and possibly the Seattle Mariners.According to a couple of major league sources, the Sox would be willing to part with lefthander Jon Lester over Clay Buchholz and minor league pitcher Michael Bowden over minor league pitcher Justin Masterson. The Sox prefer the Twins take Coco Crisp over Jacoby Ellsbury but if they did that means the Sox would have to kick in another significant prospect. While sources did not confirm a name, ESPN reported it might be shortstop Jed Lowrie.The Twins are still trying to sort out who is willing to offer what. The Yankees are still very much in the hunt, with their talks centering around Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano. The Angels appear to have the ability to make a deal quicker than anyone else because they have talented young players and an abundance of pitching after they acquired Jon Garland from the White Sox in exchange for former Red Sox shortstop Orlando Cabrera.

Jesus, if they give up Cano ina Santana deal Im gonna be very pissed. Hughes I can live with (although Id like to keep him too).

 

[Sammy3469]

13. Jack Cust, OF/1B, Arizona (BA: #31, Sickels: #35)

Good to see they loved him even then.

 

[Reaper]

I'd just like it on record that I don't want to give up Hughes. I'd much rather a package centered around Kennedy to try and get Haren if anything. If the Red Sox get Santana because of that, fine. Next year's free agent pitching market should be outstanding. CC isn't getting traded in-season because the Tribe will be very good, and when he hits the market you go after him hard. I'd much prefer CC/Hughes/Kennedy in 2009 over just Johan.

Well that is just a completely ridiculous hypothetical.First. No deal mentioned had the Yanks giving up both Hughes and Kennedy. So one of them would be there in 08 and 09.

Second. Why would the Yankees signing Johan to a 20 million/year contract preclude them from signing Sabathia (if he is available) in 09? They have routinely had very expensive starters in their rotation at the same time (K Brown, Petite, Clemens, Johnson, etc).

They will have dropped the ball big time if they refuse to trade Hughes. Hughes has such a minute chance of outperforming Santana over the next 6 years. I mean really minute. Like 1 in a million minute. If the Yankees were being payroll efficient, then yes, the difference in their salary and amount of years controlled would play a part...but money is not an issue.

And the same thing goes for the Sox. If they had to include Buchholz to get it down, they would be equally as foolish to not include him. For pretty much the same reasons.

First. Several scenarios have included Hughes and Kennedy, if the Sox decide to part with Ellsbury. The thinking being that the Yanks need to give up the two of them in order to better the Boston end. Mike and the Mad Dog were talking about precisely this possibility this afternoon.Second. They aren't going to carry two pitchers at $20 mil (or close to it) PLUS A-Rod at $28 mil PLUS Posada and Jeter and Mariano and Damon and Matsui with Cano hitting arbitration shortly. Yes, even the Yankees have a ceiling on spending. When they had those expensive starters in the rotation, they didn't also have $45 million per year tied up in just the left side of the infield.

And I know you were exaggerating for effect, but I would certainly put the chances of Hughes outperforming Johan at significantly better than a million to one. Yes, Johan has the experience. No, Hughes does not. But he showed his stuff with the near no-hitter last year and pitched extremely well in the ALDS. It's unlikely that he'll ever put up the type of regular season stats that Johan will. What I want him for is to be a playoff ace. I'd much rather win with him than Santana. I watched two young kids on the Marlins mow us down in 2003 in Penny and Beckett, then I watched more youth take us apart over the next few years in Lackey, Carmona, Bonderman. I know it's not the ONLY way to win, but it seems to be the most rewarding.

I'll acknowledge that a lot of it is the whole "hired gun" mentality. It's been fun to watch these kids come up the past few years and contribute. It's an exciting team. Yes, we all want to have our teams win and win big and win now and win often. And I know some will disagree with me here and call me ridiculous, but right now I'd rather win one WS title over the next five years with home-grown guys and youth than win 2 with guys like Johan or even Haren and Sabathia. It's a little more satisfying in my opinion. Feel free to disagree, it's only my opinion and everyone is entitled to their own. And I realize the whole team won't be all be home-grown because that's the nature of the game...but having more is certainly more fun. I know Shady and Yankee23 and some of the other Yank fans on here agree with me when we say that this season was one of the most fun seasons to be a Yankee fan in recent years. Sure it ended with a disappointment, but it was enjoyable nonetheless.

But like I said (trying not to completely contradict myself), if Johan brings us a ring I'm not gonna sit there and lament my poor fate that we weren't able to win it "how I wanted". I'll be happy as anyone...just that right now I'd prefer seeing Phil on the mound for a Game 7 victory.

YES, I've said it as well, that was about as fun a season could be without winning it all.... Bottom line is watching good baseball and we got a lot of it.

And I think some Yankee fans are gunshy because, as much as people want to always claim " The Yankees get whomever they want"... And as much as they do get players, they don't always get them all and you only have a few shots at the "Big Guys" without being out of the mix for the next 'big guy"..... i think the Giambi blunder hurt them a TON, might have cost them David Ortiz???? I'm sure the Pavano and Brown moves blocked others.

The Yankees haven't had young pitching prospects like this in almost forever......

Yankee fans have also seen their share of pitchers come up small on their team as well as the rest of MLB.....

I think whatever team gets Santana, their fans will be faced with both sides of a risky Long Term move. Some of us aren't 100% sold on Santana and his longevity.

For Arod, they didn't have to give up young talent... Losing Arod would have meant probably giving up young talent to fill that spot, so that deal was REAL easy to laud by most Yankee fans....

And yeah, Yankee fans also starve to watch their own young guys develop which again made this past year all the better and has allowed them to even be in these talks right now.......

The Yankees had Zero shot at Beckett correct? They don't always have the chips to be in the game they are in right now.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, Crisp and Cabrera are about as equal as you can get (age notwithstading). Crisp has a career OPS+ of 94 with a Range Factor of 2.42 (vs a league average of 2.19).

Cabrera has a career OPS+ of 90 with a 2.32 Range Factor (vs a league average of 2.05).

 

[David Yudkin]

The Yankees had Zero shot at Beckett correct? They don't always have the chips to be in the game they are in right now.

IIRC, the Yankees were totally blindsided and I remember reading comments that they did not even know he was available when the trade went down, so I believe they were caught completely off guard.

 

[shadyridr]

The Yankees had Zero shot at Beckett correct? They don't always have the chips to be in the game they are in right now.

IIRC, the Yankees were totally blindsided and I remember reading comments that they did not even know he was available when the trade went down, so I believe they were caught completely off guard.

The Sox gave up Ramirez AND Sanchez in that deal. The Yankees had NOBODY in their farm system even close to those 2 nevermind 2 guys of that level.