The Johan Santana rumor mill (1 Viewer)

[guru_007]

IMO, Crisp and Cabrera are about as equal as you can get (age notwithstading). Crisp has a career OPS+ of 94 with a Range Factor of 2.42 (vs a league average of 2.19).Cabrera has a career OPS+ of 90 with a 2.32 Range Factor (vs a league average of 2.05).

While I don't totally disagree......I think that Crisp is quite a bit more desirable than Cabrera in trade. Crisp is a guy with a little pop that you can place at the top of the lineup with confidence, and has above average range in center. Cabrera strikes me as a bottom of the lineup guy, without much pop and so-so speed. The guy has 15 career homers in 1000+ major league AB's...and what about 30 career sb's? Crisp has hit 15 hr's in a season more than once, and has 30+ sb ability. Unless Cabrera goes Brady Anderson on us over here, I don't see a guy that's going to hit anywhere other than 7-9 in a lineup, and it's not like he's Torii Hunter out there in center. I'd much prefer Crisp.

 

[Kiddnets]

Todays Newark Star Ledger

To get Santana, Yanks would lose an impact player

Friday, November 30, 2007

BY ED PRICE

Star-Ledger Staff

NEW YORK -- If the Yankees want Johan Santana for the top of their rotation, something catcher Jorge Posada yesterday said the team needs, they will have to offer the Minnesota Twins a significant package.

A person familiar with discussions, who asked not to be named because he is not the chief decision-maker for his team, said Minnesota is looking for "an impact guy and two major-league-ready or close to major-league-ready players."

If they can't get such a package -- and the person said a Boston Red Sox offer described in reports yesterday as center fielder Coco Crisp, lefty Jon Lester and two prospects would not be sufficient -- the Twins will keep Santana, see if they can contend next year and, if they don't, look to deal him before the July trade deadline.

The person said the Twins want to see if "somebody knocks their socks off" before they trade a star player while a publicly funded stadium is being built. Players that fit the description include Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano and two young Boston players -- outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and pitcher Clay Buchholz.

An official with a team that has been involved in Santana talks (who asked not to be named because of the sensitive nature of trade talks) said the Twins want four players back but have recently changed their stance. Instead of insisting that the players they get must fill their holes -- center field, rotation and perhaps third base -- they are willing to take players they can trade to meet those needs.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I'd just like it on record that I don't want to give up Hughes. I'd much rather a package centered around Kennedy to try and get Haren if anything. If the Red Sox get Santana because of that, fine. Next year's free agent pitching market should be outstanding. CC isn't getting traded in-season because the Tribe will be very good, and when he hits the market you go after him hard. I'd much prefer CC/Hughes/Kennedy in 2009 over just Johan.

Well that is just a completely ridiculous hypothetical.First. No deal mentioned had the Yanks giving up both Hughes and Kennedy. So one of them would be there in 08 and 09.

Second. Why would the Yankees signing Johan to a 20 million/year contract preclude them from signing Sabathia (if he is available) in 09? They have routinely had very expensive starters in their rotation at the same time (K Brown, Petite, Clemens, Johnson, etc).

They will have dropped the ball big time if they refuse to trade Hughes. Hughes has such a minute chance of outperforming Santana over the next 6 years. I mean really minute. Like 1 in a million minute. If the Yankees were being payroll efficient, then yes, the difference in their salary and amount of years controlled would play a part...but money is not an issue.

And the same thing goes for the Sox. If they had to include Buchholz to get it down, they would be equally as foolish to not include him. For pretty much the same reasons.

First. Several scenarios have included Hughes and Kennedy, if the Sox decide to part with Ellsbury. The thinking being that the Yanks need to give up the two of them in order to better the Boston end. Mike and the Mad Dog were talking about precisely this possibility this afternoon.Second. They aren't going to carry two pitchers at $20 mil (or close to it) PLUS A-Rod at $28 mil PLUS Posada and Jeter and Mariano and Damon and Matsui with Cano hitting arbitration shortly. Yes, even the Yankees have a ceiling on spending. When they had those expensive starters in the rotation, they didn't also have $45 million per year tied up in just the left side of the infield.

And I know you were exaggerating for effect, but I would certainly put the chances of Hughes outperforming Johan at significantly better than a million to one. Yes, Johan has the experience. No, Hughes does not. But he showed his stuff with the near no-hitter last year and pitched extremely well in the ALDS. It's unlikely that he'll ever put up the type of regular season stats that Johan will. What I want him for is to be a playoff ace. I'd much rather win with him than Santana. I watched two young kids on the Marlins mow us down in 2003 in Penny and Beckett, then I watched more youth take us apart over the next few years in Lackey, Carmona, Bonderman. I know it's not the ONLY way to win, but it seems to be the most rewarding.

I'll acknowledge that a lot of it is the whole "hired gun" mentality. It's been fun to watch these kids come up the past few years and contribute. It's an exciting team. Yes, we all want to have our teams win and win big and win now and win often. And I know some will disagree with me here and call me ridiculous, but right now I'd rather win one WS title over the next five years with home-grown guys and youth than win 2 with guys like Johan or even Haren and Sabathia. It's a little more satisfying in my opinion. Feel free to disagree, it's only my opinion and everyone is entitled to their own. And I realize the whole team won't be all be home-grown because that's the nature of the game...but having more is certainly more fun. I know Shady and Yankee23 and some of the other Yank fans on here agree with me when we say that this season was one of the most fun seasons to be a Yankee fan in recent years. Sure it ended with a disappointment, but it was enjoyable nonetheless.

But like I said (trying not to completely contradict myself), if Johan brings us a ring I'm not gonna sit there and lament my poor fate that we weren't able to win it "how I wanted". I'll be happy as anyone...just that right now I'd prefer seeing Phil on the mound for a Game 7 victory.

YES, I've said it as well, that was about as fun a season could be without winning it all.... Bottom line is watching good baseball and we got a lot of it.

And I think some Yankee fans are gunshy because, as much as people want to always claim " The Yankees get whomever they want"... And as much as they do get players, they don't always get them all and you only have a few shots at the "Big Guys" without being out of the mix for the next 'big guy"..... i think the Giambi blunder hurt them a TON, might have cost them David Ortiz???? I'm sure the Pavano and Brown moves blocked others.

The Yankees haven't had young pitching prospects like this in almost forever......

Yankee fans have also seen their share of pitchers come up small on their team as well as the rest of MLB.....

I think whatever team gets Santana, their fans will be faced with both sides of a risky Long Term move. Some of us aren't 100% sold on Santana and his longevity.

For Arod, they didn't have to give up young talent... Losing Arod would have meant probably giving up young talent to fill that spot, so that deal was REAL easy to laud by most Yankee fans....

And yeah, Yankee fans also starve to watch their own young guys develop which again made this past year all the better and has allowed them to even be in these talks right now.......

The Yankees had Zero shot at Beckett correct? They don't always have the chips to be in the game they are in right now.

One item that goes a little unnoticed was that Torre was HUGE supporter of veterans and always looked the veteran way before the rookie, even if the rookie was better. It took Torre many years (too long) before he turned the catching over to Posada even though Jorge was a far superior hitter and had a much better throwing arm then Girardi. They both called a good game, but the only thing Girardi was better was that he framed pitches better (better receiver) and Girardi was faster (not much value here). Even guys like Andy Phillips getting playing time over guys like Shelly Duncan or others is crazy. I know many people feel Andy Phillips is cool because he is home grown, but he is useless on the Yankees but he is still on the Yankees with with his below average abilities everywhere. When he was hot earlier in the year (I believe his OPS was about .780), I stated they should trade him now because he will get back to his mark of about .700 OPS. Ironically, I think Joe trusted younger guys this year more than ever before. I think he realized that there was little emotion on the team (especially with Joe sleeping in the dugout) and guys like Duncan sparked everyone.

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Great minor league players:Ron KittleBrandon Watson Dan Collier ...........Back to you MH.

I worked out with Ron Kittle one winter as he was a free agent later in his career. He did win the rookie of the year award. he was a real nice person

 

[shadyridr]

Agree on Cano

 

[Liquid Tension]

IMO, Crisp and Cabrera are about as equal as you can get (age notwithstading). Crisp has a career OPS+ of 94 with a Range Factor of 2.42 (vs a league average of 2.19).Cabrera has a career OPS+ of 90 with a 2.32 Range Factor (vs a league average of 2.05).

FWIW I am not a huge fan of range factor or even zone rating unless year in and year out a trend shows something. There is no way that Melky has above average range in CF.

 

[Reaper]

Do people like Reyes?

I know he's got a decent contract and is a good player to hold on to in that regard and has great talent.... I personally think he's a punk and would certainly let him go plus others for Santana if my team had no #1 or #2 Starter and wanted to contend......

I just think Santana in the NL has even more value.

 

[Liquid Tension]

IMO, Crisp and Cabrera are about as equal as you can get (age notwithstading). Crisp has a career OPS+ of 94 with a Range Factor of 2.42 (vs a league average of 2.19).Cabrera has a career OPS+ of 90 with a 2.32 Range Factor (vs a league average of 2.05).

While I don't totally disagree......I think that Crisp is quite a bit more desirable than Cabrera in trade. Crisp is a guy with a little pop that you can place at the top of the lineup with confidence, and has above average range in center. Cabrera strikes me as a bottom of the lineup guy, without much pop and so-so speed. The guy has 15 career homers in 1000+ major league AB's...and what about 30 career sb's? Crisp has hit 15 hr's in a season more than once, and has 30+ sb ability. Unless Cabrera goes Brady Anderson on us over here, I don't see a guy that's going to hit anywhere other than 7-9 in a lineup, and it's not like he's Torii Hunter out there in center. I'd much prefer Crisp.

We have already shown that offensively they are about equal (this includes HR's and includes SB's). yes, I agree that Crisp has more range, but Melky's arm is a weapon. Taking that Melky is only 23 and Crisp is in his prime and a little more expensive I won't criticize saying that you prefer Coco, but to say MUCH prefer I think is just wrong

 

[oneohh]

Do people like Reyes? I know he's got a decent contract and is a good player to hold on to in that regard and has great talent.... I personally think he's a punk and would certainly let him go plus others for Santana if my team had no #1 or #2 Starter and wanted to contend......I just think Santana in the NL has even more value.

Jose Reyes?

 

[ooofffaaa]

Do people like Reyes? I know he's got a decent contract and is a good player to hold on to in that regard and has great talent.... I personally think he's a punk and would certainly let him go plus others for Santana if my team had no #1 or #2 Starter and wanted to contend......I just think Santana in the NL has even more value.

wow - just wow.He certainly can't be compared to future HOFer Melky Cabrera but are you serious here?He does act a bit immature but he's all of 24 years old.

 

[guru_007]

IMO, Crisp and Cabrera are about as equal as you can get (age notwithstading). Crisp has a career OPS+ of 94 with a Range Factor of 2.42 (vs a league average of 2.19).Cabrera has a career OPS+ of 90 with a 2.32 Range Factor (vs a league average of 2.05).

While I don't totally disagree......I think that Crisp is quite a bit more desirable than Cabrera in trade. Crisp is a guy with a little pop that you can place at the top of the lineup with confidence, and has above average range in center. Cabrera strikes me as a bottom of the lineup guy, without much pop and so-so speed. The guy has 15 career homers in 1000+ major league AB's...and what about 30 career sb's? Crisp has hit 15 hr's in a season more than once, and has 30+ sb ability. Unless Cabrera goes Brady Anderson on us over here, I don't see a guy that's going to hit anywhere other than 7-9 in a lineup, and it's not like he's Torii Hunter out there in center. I'd much prefer Crisp.

We have already shown that offensively they are about equal (this includes HR's and includes SB's). yes, I agree that Crisp has more range, but Melky's arm is a weapon. Taking that Melky is only 23 and Crisp is in his prime and a little more expensive I won't criticize saying that you prefer Coco, but to say MUCH prefer I think is just wrong

That's why we have opinions. Come back to me in 5 years and we'll see how this played out. Honestly, if Cabrera wasn't an overhyped Yankee, he would hardly be a blip on the radar for most major league teams. I'm not saying Crisp is a superstar, but I do feel he is an above average CF'er and coveted by other teams. I feel Cabrera is young, and overhyped, and whatever numbers you want to show me that they are equal offensively, well, I simply disagree with them. That certainly may change.

 

[shadyridr]

Do people like Reyes? I know he's got a decent contract and is a good player to hold on to in that regard and has great talent.... I personally think he's a punk and would certainly let him go plus others for Santana if my team had no #1 or #2 Starter and wanted to contend......I just think Santana in the NL has even more value.

Trading Reyes for Santana would be an absolutelt colossal mistake. Reyes has top 5 ML potential if hes not there already.

 

[shadyridr]

IMO, Crisp and Cabrera are about as equal as you can get (age notwithstading). Crisp has a career OPS+ of 94 with a Range Factor of 2.42 (vs a league average of 2.19).Cabrera has a career OPS+ of 90 with a 2.32 Range Factor (vs a league average of 2.05).

While I don't totally disagree......I think that Crisp is quite a bit more desirable than Cabrera in trade. Crisp is a guy with a little pop that you can place at the top of the lineup with confidence, and has above average range in center. Cabrera strikes me as a bottom of the lineup guy, without much pop and so-so speed. The guy has 15 career homers in 1000+ major league AB's...and what about 30 career sb's? Crisp has hit 15 hr's in a season more than once, and has 30+ sb ability. Unless Cabrera goes Brady Anderson on us over here, I don't see a guy that's going to hit anywhere other than 7-9 in a lineup, and it's not like he's Torii Hunter out there in center. I'd much prefer Crisp.

We have already shown that offensively they are about equal (this includes HR's and includes SB's). yes, I agree that Crisp has more range, but Melky's arm is a weapon. Taking that Melky is only 23 and Crisp is in his prime and a little more expensive I won't criticize saying that you prefer Coco, but to say MUCH prefer I think is just wrong

That's why we have opinions. Come back to me in 5 years and we'll see how this played out. Honestly, if Cabrera wasn't an overhyped Yankee, he would hardly be a blip on the radar for most major league teams. I'm not saying Crisp is a superstar, but I do feel he is an above average CF'er and coveted by other teams. I feel Cabrera is young, and overhyped, and whatever numbers you want to show me that they are equal offensively, well, I simply disagree with them. That certainly may change.

If hes an overhyped Yankee why would other teams have interest in him?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

 

[Koya]

Do people like Reyes? I know he's got a decent contract and is a good player to hold on to in that regard and has great talent.... I personally think he's a punk and would certainly let him go plus others for Santana if my team had no #1 or #2 Starter and wanted to contend......I just think Santana in the NL has even more value.

First, how is Reyes a "punk" - he has some maturity issues, but the guy is far from a punk.Second, a Reyes for Santana deal is something that I would personally consider, however the two major roadblocks are (1) Reyes has a skill set that comes around maybe once a generation. Now, he stepped back bigtime second half of last year, but the guy has physical tools that make him a very valuable and in many ways irreplaceable player and (2) he is signed to a near bargain contract. Terrible job by his agent.That said, I think you can find offense easier than you can find the best pitcher in baseball, but it would somewhat be robbing peter to pay paul if you trade Reyes for Santana.

 

[Koya]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

He does have that potential, however.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

He does have that potential, however.

Yeah, he does.

 

[shadyridr]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

I think he will be.

 

[guru_007]

If hes an overhyped Yankee why would other teams have interest in him?

As far as I can see YOU are the only one that has interest in him. Is he a cousin or something?

 

[[icon]]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

I think he will be.

When? What do you think his stat line will be in 2 years?

 

[shadyridr]

If hes an overhyped Yankee why would other teams have interest in him?

As far as I can see YOU are the only one that has interest in him. Is he a cousin or something?

Every rumor involving the Yanks includes Cabrera in the trade offer. I dont think hes overhyped at all. Hes a 3rd OFer that has equivalent value to Coco Crisp. Thats how I value him. You are the only person in this thread that thinks Crisp has MUCH more value than Cabrera. Perhaps you and Covelli are blood brothers or something.

 

[shadyridr]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

I think he will be.

When? What do you think his stat line will be in 2 years?

Ive often said I think he will lead the league in BA soon enough. Plus I think he will be the Yanks #3 hitter as soon as 2009. If I had to predict a statline Id say: .330-25-100 with 100 runs, 10 sbs, .370 OBP

 

[Reaper]

Do people like Reyes? I know he's got a decent contract and is a good player to hold on to in that regard and has great talent.... I personally think he's a punk and would certainly let him go plus others for Santana if my team had no #1 or #2 Starter and wanted to contend......I just think Santana in the NL has even more value.

First, how is Reyes a "punk" - he has some maturity issues, but the guy is far from a punk.Second, a Reyes for Santana deal is something that I would personally consider, however the two major roadblocks are (1) Reyes has a skill set that comes around maybe once a generation. Now, he stepped back bigtime second half of last year, but the guy has physical tools that make him a very valuable and in many ways irreplaceable player and (2) he is signed to a near bargain contract. Terrible job by his agent.That said, I think you can find offense easier than you can find the best pitcher in baseball, but it would somewhat be robbing peter to pay paul if you trade Reyes for Santana.

Thanks Koya... Maybe punk was the wrong choice of words... But, he's easily hateable for sure. Then again, the last hateable Mets won it all.I can just see Santana being dominant in the NL and I agree about replacing the offense easier."Once in a generation Skillset" is something though, if true and yeah, that contract is ridiculous. Making the deal forces the Mets into the next tier of spending level...

 

[shadyridr]

Do people like Reyes?

I know he's got a decent contract and is a good player to hold on to in that regard and has great talent.... I personally think he's a punk and would certainly let him go plus others for Santana if my team had no #1 or #2 Starter and wanted to contend......

I just think Santana in the NL has even more value.

First, how is Reyes a "punk" - he has some maturity issues, but the guy is far from a punk.Second, a Reyes for Santana deal is something that I would personally consider, however the two major roadblocks are (1) Reyes has a skill set that comes around maybe once a generation. Now, he stepped back bigtime second half of last year, but the guy has physical tools that make him a very valuable and in many ways irreplaceable player and (2) he is signed to a near bargain contract. Terrible job by his agent.

That said, I think you can find offense easier than you can find the best pitcher in baseball, but it would somewhat be robbing peter to pay paul if you trade Reyes for Santana.

Thanks Koya... Maybe punk was the wrong choice of words... But, he's easily hateable for sure. Then again, the last hateable Mets won it all.I can just see Santana being dominant in the NL and I agree about replacing the offense easier.

"Once in a generation Skillset" is something though, if true and yeah, that contract is ridiculous. Making the deal forces the Mets into the next tier of spending level...

Youre the first person Ive ever seen say this

 

[[icon]]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

I think he will be.

When? What do you think his stat line will be in 2 years?

Ive often said I think he will lead the league in BA soon enough. Plus I think he will be the Yanks #3 hitter as soon as 2009. If I had to predict a statline Id say: .330-25-100 with 100 runs, 10 sbs, .370 OBP

Interesting. not knocking ya.. Cano is a solid young player. I like the kid a lot. I guess I don't see that as superstar numbers... and I think ..330 might be more of a career year number than a sustainable figure. I'd see him as a .305-.310 career guy. That said.. definitely a good guy to have at 2B

 

[shadyridr]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

I think he will be.

When? What do you think his stat line will be in 2 years?

Ive often said I think he will lead the league in BA soon enough. Plus I think he will be the Yanks #3 hitter as soon as 2009. If I had to predict a statline Id say: .330-25-100 with 100 runs, 10 sbs, .370 OBP

Interesting. not knocking ya.. Cano is a solid young player. I like the kid a lot. I guess I don't see that as superstar numbers... and I think ..330 might be more of a career year number than a sustainable figure. I'd see him as a .305-.310 career guy. That said.. definitely a good guy to have at 2B

Perhaps superstar is too strong a word but perennial AS 2B IMO is more like it. And as far as his batting average he hit .342 in 2006.

 

[[icon]]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

I think he will be.

When? What do you think his stat line will be in 2 years?

Ive often said I think he will lead the league in BA soon enough. Plus I think he will be the Yanks #3 hitter as soon as 2009. If I had to predict a statline Id say: .330-25-100 with 100 runs, 10 sbs, .370 OBP

Interesting. not knocking ya.. Cano is a solid young player. I like the kid a lot. I guess I don't see that as superstar numbers... and I think ..330 might be more of a career year number than a sustainable figure. I'd see him as a .305-.310 career guy. That said.. definitely a good guy to have at 2B

Perhaps superstar is too strong a word but perennial AS 2B IMO is more like it. And as far as his batting average he hit .342 in 2006.

Yes and I don't think he'll hit that again. He stormed onto the scene but pitchers have found a means to get him out. I think he bell curves up to .320-.330 then back down to 300ish. Again... very good hitter.

 

[Alias]

If hes an overhyped Yankee why would other teams have interest in him?

As far as I can see YOU are the only one that has interest in him. Is he a cousin or something?

Every rumor involving the Yanks includes Cabrera in the trade offer. I dont think hes overhyped at all. Hes a 3rd OFer that has equivalent value to Coco Crisp. Thats how I value him. You are the only person in this thread that thinks Crisp has MUCH more value than Cabrera. Perhaps you and Covelli are blood brothers or something.

Crisp and Cabrera are valued differentlyIf you want a guy with speed (25 SB vs. 12 SB) and defense (.997 vs. .991) and a little more experience (5y vs. 2y) you go CrispIf you want a cheaper guy ($400k vs. $3MM) with a little better offense (~.725 OPS to ~0.705 OPS) you go with CabreraCrisp: ~15 WSCabrera: ~13 WS

 

[Liquid Tension]

IMO, Crisp and Cabrera are about as equal as you can get (age notwithstading). Crisp has a career OPS+ of 94 with a Range Factor of 2.42 (vs a league average of 2.19).Cabrera has a career OPS+ of 90 with a 2.32 Range Factor (vs a league average of 2.05).

While I don't totally disagree......I think that Crisp is quite a bit more desirable than Cabrera in trade. Crisp is a guy with a little pop that you can place at the top of the lineup with confidence, and has above average range in center. Cabrera strikes me as a bottom of the lineup guy, without much pop and so-so speed. The guy has 15 career homers in 1000+ major league AB's...and what about 30 career sb's? Crisp has hit 15 hr's in a season more than once, and has 30+ sb ability. Unless Cabrera goes Brady Anderson on us over here, I don't see a guy that's going to hit anywhere other than 7-9 in a lineup, and it's not like he's Torii Hunter out there in center. I'd much prefer Crisp.

We have already shown that offensively they are about equal (this includes HR's and includes SB's). yes, I agree that Crisp has more range, but Melky's arm is a weapon. Taking that Melky is only 23 and Crisp is in his prime and a little more expensive I won't criticize saying that you prefer Coco, but to say MUCH prefer I think is just wrong

That's why we have opinions. Come back to me in 5 years and we'll see how this played out. Honestly, if Cabrera wasn't an overhyped Yankee, he would hardly be a blip on the radar for most major league teams. I'm not saying Crisp is a superstar, but I do feel he is an above average CF'er and coveted by other teams. I feel Cabrera is young, and overhyped, and whatever numbers you want to show me that they are equal offensively, well, I simply disagree with them. That certainly may change.

I am not sure about overhyped as I am not a huge fan of Cabrera as a CF at this point of his career, but I also would not be with Coco in center (and neither are the RedSox). Of course we have opinions, but when numbers are put forth such as OPS there is nothing to debate about them, they are facts. Why would you say you disagree with them? I am not trying to justify some agenda. In fact, I have been one of the more vocal people (for many years) about how poor Jeter is at going to his left and I wanted him switched to CF when ARod came over. I was laughed at from Yankee fans when I suggested that, but I still believe he would help the Yankees there more. he tracks balls fantastically well (proven by his excellent over the shoulders grabs). So what part of OPS do you disagree with?

 

[shadyridr]

:X If hes an overhyped Yankee why would other teams have interest in him?

As far as I can see YOU are the only one that has interest in him. Is he a cousin or something?

Every rumor involving the Yanks includes Cabrera in the trade offer. I dont think hes overhyped at all. Hes a 3rd OFer that has equivalent value to Coco Crisp. Thats how I value him. You are the only person in this thread that thinks Crisp has MUCH more value than Cabrera. Perhaps you and Covelli are blood brothers or something.

Crisp and Cabrera are valued differentlyIf you want a guy with speed (25 SB vs. 12 SB) and defense (.997 vs. .991) and a little more experience (5y vs. 2y) you go CrispIf you want a cheaper guy ($400k vs. $3MM) with a little better offense (~.725 OPS to ~0.705 OPS) you go with CabreraCrisp: ~15 WSCabrera: ~13 WS

Thats kind of what Im saying. Im not saying they are the same player, just that their trade value is about equal depending on what you are looking for.

 

[guru_007]

I am not sure about overhyped as I am not a huge fan of Cabrera as a CF at this point of his career, but I also would not be with Coco in center (and neither are the RedSox). Of course we have opinions, but when numbers are put forth such as OPS there is nothing to debate about them, they are facts. Why would you say you disagree with them? I am not trying to justify some agenda. In fact, I have been one of the more vocal people (for many years) about how poor Jeter is at going to his left and I wanted him switched to CF when ARod came over. I was laughed at from Yankee fans when I suggested that, but I still believe he would help the Yankees there more. he tracks balls fantastically well (proven by his excellent over the shoulders grabs). So what part of OPS do you disagree with?

Red Sox are looking to ship Crisp as they have a younger guy, with a higher ceiling, getting paid significantly less ready to go. That's the nuts and bolts of it. I think the Red Sox are just fine keeping Crisp. This is an every day player from a World Series championship team. And as far as numbers go......two things. Sample size is way too small on Cabrera. And the main reason, there are lies, damn lies and statistics. Plain and simple, anyone can take some numbers and twist them around and make quite valid cases for about anyone. I've been plenty guilty of picking and choosing statistics/metrics I want to use when evaluating a player's career. But I generally do it for a players career,, or at least when they have 5+ seasons to compare. Guys have great starts to their careers and fizzle. Some guys start slow and then get great. This is really the reason I prefer baseball to football, as there is much more to argue/disagree and fight about That being said, I'm obviously the best judge of talent on this board, if not all of MLB and Crisp is better in my minds eye than Cabrera. I'm just a guy who thinks Cabrera is not very good offensively and never will be.Ya'll are talking about Cano before, and that's a guy that I do think is a very good, all-star caliber player. Maybe he will not bat mid-300's, but around .300 is certainly within grasp, and the ball really jumps off his bat, pardon the cliche, but it's true. He smokes the ball.

 

[Koya]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

I think he will be.

When? What do you think his stat line will be in 2 years?

I hate the Yanks and admittedly I have some reservations about Cano... but I could easily see a 5-10 year prime averaging well above .310 with a little pop. For a 2B? More than solid, a star and POSSIBILITY of superstar but Im don't think he will quite have the OBP and SLG needed for that plateau. But it is still very early.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

The fact that he overcame such a weak start to still finish 4th in OPS for all of baseball for 2nd baseman shows great ability.If you look at all of baseball I think Cano is clearly in the top 3; is that Superstar material? Utley was really the only guy who out hit Cano for the year (Taking under 30 guys so I am excluding Kent and Polanco who had a by far career year at 32). Utley is 28, Cano is 25.the other 3 guys I put up into the list are :Kelly JohnsonPedroia (would like to see more after pitchers adjust)Brandon PhillipsNow, I don't love RF and ZR for defense as I think you need to watch a guy as well, but Cano is better than all of these guys with RF and only Utley beats him at ZR.Here are the numbers:OPS:Utley: .976 (530 AB's)Cano: .841 (horrible start - 617 AB's))Johnson: .831 (521 AB's)Pedroia: (.823 one year 520 AB's)Phillips: .816 (650 AB's with lowest walk % - 32 SB's puts him up with Cano with adjusted OPS)Range Factor:Cano: 5.22 (has lightning quick hands)Utley: 5.10Phillips: 5.08Pedroia: 4.88Johnson: 4.76Zone Rating:Utley: .874Cano: .846Pedroia: .833Phillips: .810Johnson: .783Johnson is a pretty weak defender and that puts him on another level if you ask me. Pedroia doesn't have a body of two years to give us any indication so I would have him ranked 4th right now (next year will show a lot). I would have Utley 1st and Cano 2nd with Phillips 3rd.You may not agree with my math here but these are my rankings overall for 2nd baseman UtleyCanoPhillipsPedroiaJohnsonGuys like Polanco who had a great year this year are 32 so I did not include him. Kent's defense would drop him a lot in my book as well.So what is Superstar, top 5 in baseball at your position? Top 3 in baseball? If you were going to build a team and Cano is the 2nd best guy to have, I think that justifies (or at least is pretty close) Superstar status, especially when you look at growth.

 

[Workhorse]

One thing to consider about guys like Cano and Phillips vs. a guy like Dustin Pedroia:

Pedroia's keen batting eye, combined with few CS and lack of GIDP, makes him a more efficient hitter.

Cano and Phillips, by virtue of high strikeout rates and very high GIDP levels, aren't as good as Pedroia in terms of Runs Created Per Game:

2007:

Cano: 5.8

Phillips: 5.2

Pedroia: 6.6

Cano and Phillips have great tools and power potential that Pedroia doesn't have, true. But Pedroia's skillset might be more valuable to a team since he just simply doesn't create OUTS. And that's the name of the game in terms of scoring runs: Out prevention.

 

[shadyridr]

One thing to consider about guys like Cano and Phillips vs. a guy like Dustin Pedroiaedroia's keen batting eye, combined with few CS and lack of GIDP, makes him a more efficient hitter.Cano and Phillips, by virtue of high strikeout rates and very high GIDP levels, aren't as good as Pedroia in terms of Runs Created Per Game:2007:Cano: 5.8Phillips: 5.2Pedroia: 6.6Cano and Phillips have great tools and power potential that Pedroia doesn't have, true. But Pedroia's skillset might be more valuable to a team since he just simply doesn't create OUTS. And that's the name of the game in terms of scoring runs: Out prevention.

I see Cano as an eventual #3 hitter. I see Pedroia as a great #2 hitter.

 

[Koya]

One thing to consider about guys like Cano and Phillips vs. a guy like Dustin Pedroia:

Pedroia's keen batting eye, combined with few CS and lack of GIDP, makes him a more efficient hitter.

Cano and Phillips, by virtue of high strikeout rates and very high GIDP levels, aren't as good as Pedroia in terms of Runs Created Per Game:

2007:

Cano: 5.8

Phillips: 5.2

Pedroia: 6.6

Cano and Phillips have great tools and power potential that Pedroia doesn't have, true. But Pedroia's skillset might be more valuable to a team since he just simply doesn't create OUTS. And that's the name of the game in terms of scoring runs: Out prevention.

That is one point of view.HRs create runs too.

I would take slightly more outs with a LOT more HRs... so it is not SO simple as out prevention. If you arent doing much with your PAs that are not outs - i.e. singles that dont drive in runs, lots of walks, not much speed/ability to score when you do get on because you made no out (or because the guy behind you might not get outs but only gets walks and lame singles also) then you arent going to score much either. We call that, Harrierball.

 

[Workhorse]

One thing to consider about guys like Cano and Phillips vs. a guy like Dustin Pedroiaedroia's keen batting eye, combined with few CS and lack of GIDP, makes him a more efficient hitter.Cano and Phillips, by virtue of high strikeout rates and very high GIDP levels, aren't as good as Pedroia in terms of Runs Created Per Game:2007:Cano: 5.8Phillips: 5.2Pedroia: 6.6Cano and Phillips have great tools and power potential that Pedroia doesn't have, true. But Pedroia's skillset might be more valuable to a team since he just simply doesn't create OUTS. And that's the name of the game in terms of scoring runs: Out prevention.

I see Cano as an eventual #3 hitter. I see Pedroia as a great #2 hitter.

Difference is: Cano may EVENTUALLY be a #3 hitter, if he continues to improve his power.Pedroia is already one of the best #2 hitters in the AL.

 

[[icon]]

One thing to consider about guys like Cano and Phillips vs. a guy like Dustin Pedroiaedroia's keen batting eye, combined with few CS and lack of GIDP, makes him a more efficient hitter.Cano and Phillips, by virtue of high strikeout rates and very high GIDP levels, aren't as good as Pedroia in terms of Runs Created Per Game:2007:Cano: 5.8Phillips: 5.2Pedroia: 6.6Cano and Phillips have great tools and power potential that Pedroia doesn't have, true. But Pedroia's skillset might be more valuable to a team since he just simply doesn't create OUTS. And that's the name of the game in terms of scoring runs: Out prevention.

Very valid point here. I am VERY eager to see what Pedrioa does this year... if he continues to progress or if he regresses a bit. The kid is good. I'll say it again.. I LOVE our top 5 (Ellsbury / Pedrioa / Ortiz / Manny/ Lowell). Adding Ellsbury's speed at the top of the order...... a post-op healthy Ortiz (hopefully).... wow. No chance Ellsbury doesn't score 100 runs this year... maybe 120.

 

[Darth Cheney]

One thing to consider about guys like Cano and Phillips vs. a guy like Dustin Pedroia:

Pedroia's keen batting eye, combined with few CS and lack of GIDP, makes him a more efficient hitter.

Cano and Phillips, by virtue of high strikeout rates and very high GIDP levels, aren't as good as Pedroia in terms of Runs Created Per Game:

2007:

Cano: 5.8

Phillips: 5.2

Pedroia: 6.6

Cano and Phillips have great tools and power potential that Pedroia doesn't have, true. But Pedroia's skillset might be more valuable to a team since he just simply doesn't create OUTS. And that's the name of the game in terms of scoring runs: Out prevention.

I see Cano as an eventual #3 hitter. I see Pedroia as a great #2 hitter.

Difference is: Cano may EVENTUALLY be a #3 hitter, if he continues to improve his power.

Pedroia is already one of the best #2 hitters in the AL.

*snicker*..... wait, are you serious?

 

[Alias]

One thing to consider about guys like Cano and Phillips vs. a guy like Dustin Pedroia:

Pedroia's keen batting eye, combined with few CS and lack of GIDP, makes him a more efficient hitter.

Cano and Phillips, by virtue of high strikeout rates and very high GIDP levels, aren't as good as Pedroia in terms of Runs Created Per Game:

2007:

Cano: 5.8

Phillips: 5.2

Pedroia: 6.6

Cano and Phillips have great tools and power potential that Pedroia doesn't have, true. But Pedroia's skillset might be more valuable to a team since he just simply doesn't create OUTS. And that's the name of the game in terms of scoring runs: Out prevention.

Very valid point here. I am VERY eager to see what Pedrioa does this year... if he continues to progress or if he regresses a bit. The kid is good. I'll say it again.. I LOVE our top 5 (Ellsbury / Pedrioa / Ortiz / Manny/ Lowell). Adding Ellsbury's speed at the top of the order...... a post-op healthy Ortiz (hopefully).... wow. No chance Ellsbury doesn't score 100 runs this year... maybe 120.

Would love to see them keep that intact, home batting averages for these 5 in '07:.368 - Ellsbury

.351 - Pedroia

.365 - Ortiz

.303 - Manny

.373 - Lowell

 

[Alias]

I am not sure if I buy this...

Gammons favors the Yankees in the Santana derby, because he feels that Hank Steinbrenner could overrule Brian Cashman and include Phil Hughes in the deal. Some feel that the Red Sox are just trying to pump up the price and would then turn to the A's to get Dan Haren. Getting Haren instead of Santana may have the added benefit of not pissing off Josh Beckett about his salary.

Everything I have read sounds like a Haren trade is going to cost as much as a Santana trade (player wise).

 

[oneohh]

I am not sure if I buy this...

Gammons favors the Yankees in the Santana derby, because he feels that Hank Steinbrenner could overrule Brian Cashman and include Phil Hughes in the deal. Some feel that the Red Sox are just trying to pump up the price and would then turn to the A's to get Dan Haren. Getting Haren instead of Santana may have the added benefit of not pissing off Josh Beckett about his salary.

Everything I have read sounds like a Haren trade is going to cost as much as a Santana trade (player wise).

And that would be rediculous.

 

[shadyridr]

I am not sure if I buy this...

Gammons favors the Yankees in the Santana derby, because he feels that Hank Steinbrenner could overrule Brian Cashman and include Phil Hughes in the deal. Some feel that the Red Sox are just trying to pump up the price and would then turn to the A's to get Dan Haren. Getting Haren instead of Santana may have the added benefit of not pissing off Josh Beckett about his salary.

Everything I have read sounds like a Haren trade is going to cost as much as a Santana trade (player wise).

And that would be rediculous.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

I think he will be.

When? What do you think his stat line will be in 2 years?

Ive often said I think he will lead the league in BA soon enough. Plus I think he will be the Yanks #3 hitter as soon as 2009. If I had to predict a statline Id say: .330-25-100 with 100 runs, 10 sbs, .370 OBP

I think this is in line. I would drop the SB's as he pretty much a non factor in SB's even if he has some speed.I am thinking he will post a .900+ OPS over the next two years and has the ability to really break through. I mean in the 289 AB's in the 2nd half of the year he posted a .953 OPS, had 13 HR's 57 RBI's, 53 runs scored and the most important part was that he has 24 walks and only 33 k's. While I know it is silly to project this for a full year, a half a year is a pretty good amount of time, but here goes anyway:Cano's 2nd half over a full year:607 AB's 208 hits111 runs36 doubles6 triples27 HR's120 RBI's57 (walks/HBP's)69 K's.343 BA.396 OBP.557 Slug.953 OPSI don't see any reason why he can't put up .900+ OPS over the next two years

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

The fact that he overcame such a weak start to still finish 4th in OPS for all of baseball for 2nd baseman shows great ability.If you look at all of baseball I think Cano is clearly in the top 3; is that Superstar material? Utley was really the only guy who out hit Cano for the year (Taking under 30 guys so I am excluding Kent and Polanco who had a by far career year at 32). Utley is 28, Cano is 25.the other 3 guys I put up into the list are :Kelly JohnsonPedroia (would like to see more after pitchers adjust)Brandon PhillipsNow, I don't love RF and ZR for defense as I think you need to watch a guy as well, but Cano is better than all of these guys with RF and only Utley beats him at ZR.Here are the numbers:OPS:Utley: .976 (530 AB's)Cano: .841 (horrible start - 617 AB's))Johnson: .831 (521 AB's)Pedroia: (.823 one year 520 AB's)Phillips: .816 (650 AB's with lowest walk % - 32 SB's puts him up with Cano with adjusted OPS)Range Factor:Cano: 5.22 (has lightning quick hands)Utley: 5.10Phillips: 5.08Pedroia: 4.88Johnson: 4.76Zone Rating:Utley: .874Cano: .846Pedroia: .833Phillips: .810Johnson: .783Johnson is a pretty weak defender and that puts him on another level if you ask me. Pedroia doesn't have a body of two years to give us any indication so I would have him ranked 4th right now (next year will show a lot). I would have Utley 1st and Cano 2nd with Phillips 3rd.You may not agree with my math here but these are my rankings overall for 2nd baseman UtleyCanoPhillipsPedroiaJohnsonGuys like Polanco who had a great year this year are 32 so I did not include him. Kent's defense would drop him a lot in my book as well.So what is Superstar, top 5 in baseball at your position? Top 3 in baseball? If you were going to build a team and Cano is the 2nd best guy to have, I think that justifies (or at least is pretty close) Superstar status, especially when you look at growth.

I guess we do have a different definition of "superstar" because I think there are about ten or so guys I'd call that:BeckettBig PapiA-RodPujolsSantanaUtleyHowardPrince FielderJake PeavyIchiroReyesBonds ReyesMo RiveraCano could be the best second baseman in baseball, he really could. But it is very close between him, Phillips, Roberts, Weeks, Pedroia, Johnson, Kinsler, Uggla, and then some of the vets like Polanco (Upton would be included also if he was a true 2Bman and probably a clear second). On any given month I think you could make an argument for most of those guys and going forward a lot of them have the same upside. But Chase Utley is not first, he is Joe Morgan and the rest of the field is Lou Whitaker. Utley is probably two tiers ahead of whoever might be in second which to me makes him a "superstar." He is head and shoulders above the competition. I like Cano and it's not just because I have him on my dynasty team. I think he's an all-star of the future, a very good hitter when it's warm, and his fielding ability warrants overlooking the errors because he gets to balls a lot of guys wouldn't. But he's not a superstar to me, he's not even in the tier I would list below superstar. That group is loaded with guys like Sizemore, Granderson, Bay, Magglio, Abreau, Jeter, Reyes, Halliday, Tejada, etc. He might get to that tier, but I just don't see him being a guy that is a unanimous choice as the best at his position in the AL year in and out. To me a "superstar" is a guy who teams specifically have to plan for going into a series. How are we gonna stop Ichiro from running? What if Beckett comes out blazing in game 1? Can we recover to salvage the series? Pujols is hot, if we don't pitch to him what do we do with the guy hitting behind him? Teams are not doing anything beyond the normal prep in getting ready to face Cano in a series. That's not a superstar to me. Take it for what it's worth.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I am not sure about overhyped as I am not a huge fan of Cabrera as a CF at this point of his career, but I also would not be with Coco in center (and neither are the RedSox). Of course we have opinions, but when numbers are put forth such as OPS there is nothing to debate about them, they are facts. Why would you say you disagree with them? I am not trying to justify some agenda. In fact, I have been one of the more vocal people (for many years) about how poor Jeter is at going to his left and I wanted him switched to CF when ARod came over. I was laughed at from Yankee fans when I suggested that, but I still believe he would help the Yankees there more. he tracks balls fantastically well (proven by his excellent over the shoulders grabs). So what part of OPS do you disagree with?

Red Sox are looking to ship Crisp as they have a younger guy, with a higher ceiling, getting paid significantly less ready to go. That's the nuts and bolts of it. I think the Red Sox are just fine keeping Crisp. This is an every day player from a World Series championship team. And as far as numbers go......two things. Sample size is way too small on Cabrera. And the main reason, there are lies, damn lies and statistics. Plain and simple, anyone can take some numbers and twist them around and make quite valid cases for about anyone. I've been plenty guilty of picking and choosing statistics/metrics I want to use when evaluating a player's career. But I generally do it for a players career,, or at least when they have 5+ seasons to compare. Guys have great starts to their careers and fizzle. Some guys start slow and then get great. This is really the reason I prefer baseball to football, as there is much more to argue/disagree and fight about That being said, I'm obviously the best judge of talent on this board, if not all of MLB and Crisp is better in my minds eye than Cabrera. I'm just a guy who thinks Cabrera is not very good offensively and never will be.Ya'll are talking about Cano before, and that's a guy that I do think is a very good, all-star caliber player. Maybe he will not bat mid-300's, but around .300 is certainly within grasp, and the ball really jumps off his bat, pardon the cliche, but it's true. He smokes the ball.

Fair enough and thanks for the good answer. I will say that I am not someone who chooses stats to prove a point, I try to be objective and search for the truth (not try to be right). I used to be on a great message board with Bill James and we had some great stat wars. I used to argue (8 years ago) that Jeter was a good defensive SS until I was shown the truth. i used to also argue as an ex player that you couldn't tell me that some guys are more clutch than others (even if it was overrated), but I have been shown that having clutch ability is not something players have, although they do have clutch performances. I am still under the opinion that there are some people who have a little better clutch ability than others, but the amount is not that significant (the stats don't really back me up though. FWIW, the one thing that I did appreciate as a stats guy and an ex player (scout guy), is that in baseball the stats mean a lot more than other sports.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Switching gears slightly, I am not trading Cano unless it would be straight up for Santana. Cano is a superstar. He had a .950 OPS the 2nd half of the year and plays very solid 2nd base and has lightning quick hands. The Yankees should sign him for the next 8 years now and lock him up. This coming from someone who really hates hackers (which Cano is), but I think he has so much natural talent that I feel he will be an every year 25+ HR guy on top of his solid defense.

What about his first half OPS?Cano is a very good player but he's not a "superstar" unless your definition and everyone elses' are very different.

I think he will be.

When? What do you think his stat line will be in 2 years?

Ive often said I think he will lead the league in BA soon enough. Plus I think he will be the Yanks #3 hitter as soon as 2009. If I had to predict a statline Id say: .330-25-100 with 100 runs, 10 sbs, .370 OBP

Interesting. not knocking ya.. Cano is a solid young player. I like the kid a lot. I guess I don't see that as superstar numbers... and I think ..330 might be more of a career year number than a sustainable figure. I'd see him as a .305-.310 career guy. That said.. definitely a good guy to have at 2B

Perhaps superstar is too strong a word but perennial AS 2B IMO is more like it. And as far as his batting average he hit .342 in 2006.

Yes and I don't think he'll hit that again. He stormed onto the scene but pitchers have found a means to get him out. I think he bell curves up to .320-.330 then back down to 300ish. Again... very good hitter.

He hit .343 after the All Star break so I guess Cano made his adjustment to their adjustment Then again batting average is not what we should be talking about when discussing how good a hitter a guy is.

 

[Gopher State]

day after the Twins traded for Delmon Young, the Johan Santana rumor mill started cranking back up.

By La Velle E. Neal III, Star Tribune

Last update: November 30, 2007 – 12:57 AM

One day after creating ripples with his first trade as a general manager, Bill Smith moved forward with his roster restructuring plans for the Twins. And that could lead to the big splash -- a trade of ace Johan Santana.

Several teams -- including the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Angels and Dodgers -- have expressed interest. And it was learned on Thursday that the Mariners are in the running, too.

Smith won't discuss trades and contract negotiations, but he made it clear he's not done making changes.

"We still have some holes to fill," said Smith, who traded with the Rays on Wednesday for a package that included young slugger Delmon Young. "We've talked about adding some stability at third base and in center field. This [deal] didn't address either one of those. [but] we got what we consider to be the best bat available in the game."

Indications are that the Twins prefer a package from Boston that includes center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury and lefthander Jon Lester. The Red Sox like Ellsbury and would be more willing to part with center fielder Coco Crisp. Several other names have been mentioned, including shortstop prospect Jed Lowrie, outfield prospect Brandon Moss and corner infielder Kevin Youkilis.

Reports out of New York and Boston had the Yankees' and Red Sox's pursuit of Santana heating up. One report, citing Yankees sources, said the club might be willing to part with top pitching prospects Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy as well as center fielder Melky Cabrera.

Catcher Jorge Posada, in a teleconference after signing a contract to return to the Yankees, said his team should do what it can to land Santana.

"We need a No. 1," Posada said in an Associated Press story. "I would love to have him."

A report out of Los Angeles has the Twins asking the Dodgers for a package of three or four players from a pool of pitchers (Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton), outfielders (Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp) and top prospects (lefthander Clayton Kershaw, third baseman Andy LaRoche).

The Mets desperately need pitching, leading to speculation about adding star shortstop Jose Reyes to any package of players -- although Mets GM Omar Minaya told the AP Thursday, "I don't see us trading Jose Reyes for one of those guys being mentioned. It just doesn't make sense for us."

The Mariners, with outfielder Adam Jones, and the Angels, with infielder Brandon Wood and pitcher Nick Adenhart, have young players to dangle.

Any deal could fall apart because Santana has a full no-trade clause in his contract and could request a window to negotiate a contract extension before waiving the clause. That deal could be as large as six years and $150 million.

Smith said the Twins could be one of the busier teams next week at the winter meetings in Nashville.

"We're just looking for the best players we can get," he said. "Obviously, we'd like to continue add core players at any position. We'll see what the winter meetings bring, and what's in the following months."

Notes

• The Twins signed righthander Brian Bass and added him to their 40-man roster. They still have two open spots on the roster. They also signed righthander R.A. Dickey and lefthander Mariano Gomez and will invite both to spring training.

• The Twins might speak with the agent for outfielder Craig Monroe as soon as today, although it's still unclear if the recently acquired Monroe will be offered a contract or be non-tendered by the Dec. 12 deadline.

La Velle E. Neal III • lneal@startribune.com

While the above is all rumors, interesting Seattle could be in the mix. As MN homer I thought Mets would get Santana, but I think the Yankees are the team that will blink first, I know Yankee homers don't agree, but it could come down to Hughes, Kennedy, Cabrea, for Santana, and maybe one of the Twins young pitchers. The upside for the Yankees with Santana is big, with the Yankee starting line up and power hitting, Santana is an automatic 20 game winner. Who wouldn't want Santana pitching in the playoffs against Boston?

 

[shadyridr]

While the above is all rumors, interesting Seattle could be in the mix. As MN homer I thought Mets would get Santana, but I think the Yankees are the team that will blink first, I know Yankee homers don't agree, but it could come down to Hughes, Kennedy, Cabrea, for Santana, and maybe one of the Twins young pitchers. The upside for the Yankees with Santana is big, with the Yankee starting line up and power hitting, Santana is an automatic 20 game winner. Who wouldn't want Santana pitching in the playoffs against Boston?

If they give up both Hughes and Kennedy and then throw in Cabrera Id be livid.

 

[Liquid Tension]

One thing to consider about guys like Cano and Phillips vs. a guy like Dustin Pedroiaedroia's keen batting eye, combined with few CS and lack of GIDP, makes him a more efficient hitter.Cano and Phillips, by virtue of high strikeout rates and very high GIDP levels, aren't as good as Pedroia in terms of Runs Created Per Game:2007:Cano: 5.8Phillips: 5.2Pedroia: 6.6Cano and Phillips have great tools and power potential that Pedroia doesn't have, true. But Pedroia's skillset might be more valuable to a team since he just simply doesn't create OUTS. And that's the name of the game in terms of scoring runs: Out prevention.

Runs created has the DP factor in it which I find to be arbitrary when predicting the future, but is a decent measure of seeing how well someone did. While I respect Bill James and like I mentioned before we have debated in the past, I think he slightly overrates the value of the walk (and this is coming from someone who preaches don't make outs and the value of the walk) because there are guaranteed runs when a HR is hit that sometimes get left on base with a walk. even the fact that an intentional walk is sometimes the strategy of another team shows that walks should not be the same as a single...anyway, your point is taken and the one stat that I like is pitches per plate appearance and Cano is NOT strong in that area (he is a hacker). Interestingly, Pedroia is not that good in that category either. It can be skewed because Cano will jump at the first pitch a lot but also can fight and battle like others.