The Johan Santana rumor mill (1 Viewer)

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From what I've read and heard over the past few days, the guy might as well be jesus in CF.

And Hughes, on the mound, then? Seriously.... can we get this thread back on track?

 

[TLEF316]

From what I've read and heard over the past few days, the guy might as well be jesus in CF.

And Hughes, on the mound, then? Seriously.... can we get this thread back on track?

agree, we should get back on track. But I've never heard a yankee fan say A) Say that Hughes is a sure thing B) Say he's gonna be an all-star in 2008. The expectatiosns for Hughes' next few years are pretty realistic as far as i can see. The yanks are counting on Him and Joba to be SP's 3 and 4. Thats not absurd given their pedigree. Both sides are always overly optimistic, but i honestly think the Ellsbury talk is out of this world at the moment. Just my opinion.

 

[Alias]

From what I've read and heard over the past few days, the guy might as well be jesus in CF.

And Hughes, on the mound, then? Seriously.... can we get this thread back on track?

I take full responsibility for this SportsNation Amy Nelson: (10:42 AM ET ) Peter Gammons is here with me and he's hearing that Santana may not be traded now ...

 

[Tremendous Upside]

From what I've read and heard over the past few days, the guy might as well be jesus in CF.

And Hughes, on the mound, then? Seriously.... can we get this thread back on track?

Hughes is more of a Zeus, hurling lightning bolts from on high of the mound...

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Both sides are always overly optimistic, but i honestly think the Ellsbury talk is out of this world at the moment. Just my opinion.

Jacoby is Optimus Prime...More than meets the eye...

http://www.cobrabrigade.com/photos/Ellsbur...umb-200x267.jpg

 

[[icon]]

From what I've read and heard over the past few days, the guy might as well be jesus in CF.

And Hughes, on the mound, then? :X

Seriously.... can we get this thread back on track?

agree, we should get back on track. But I've never heard a yankee fan say A) Say that Hughes is a sure thing B) Say he's gonna be an all-star in 2008. The expectatiosns for Hughes' next few years are pretty realistic as far as i can see. The yanks are counting on Him and Joba to be SP's 3 and 4. Thats not absurd given their pedigree. Both sides are always overly optimistic, but i honestly think the Ellsbury talk is out of this world at the moment. Just my opinion.

Meh... I guess everyone has the right to be wrong. :X

 

[mrgerty]

Interesting perspective over at SOSH... looking at it from a business side of things:f you want to look at this as a business (which the Twins apparently do)...if you look at their attendance from 1982-2007 vs. their wins, the Twins do OK from an attendance perspective as long as they're .500 or better - roughly "in contention". Their average year over that 25 is 78 wins and a 1.8 million attendance (strike screws this straight average up a little, but...). This average though has a high deviation.When the Twins are winning under 75 games they have historically drawn under 1.5 milliion fans, and in 2000 drew 1 million people with a 69-93 record.Compare this to the 1.8-2.4 million they draw when at or above .500. Their core business objective is probably not to win a championship, but to stay competitive enough to avoid a massive dropoff in attendance. Last year was tough - they drew 2.3 million only winning 79 games - the fans seem to have a grace period year with them where they'll put up with them losing for 1 year, but the 2nd year gets ugly - 1997/98 is a good example when they went from mediocre to bad in 97 they still drew 1.5 million, but dropped to that 1.0-1.2 million range from 98-00. 01 they won 85 games and were right back up to 1.7 mil.The difference to the Twins between being "in contention" and "2nd division" is probaly 30-40M in gate revenue. This may explain some of THEIR hesitation in this trade - Hughes probably increases the chances of staying competitive in 08 (if we think next year he's better than Lester) even though the rest of the Yankee offer isn't terrific. The Tiger deal may change that calculus - they may realize the ONLY way they're staying competitive is to keep Santana. Just a thought....

The new ballpark set to open in 2010 helped boost the attendence this year. People have purchased season ticket packages (such as myself, 20 games two seats) in order to get on the priority list for the new stadium. With two kids and a 40 to 60 game amateur baseball schedule I never would have gone to 20 games if it weren't for the priority list. I think a lot of people are in the same situation. People paid for seats in order to get on the list, they use what they paid for, and attendence stayed fairly high even though they only won 79 games.

 

[shadyridr]

What I meant is he is no longer a prospect so we should stop referring to him as the #1 Yankee prospect. It's like saying hey look at my grades from High School after you have worked in the field for a few years. Granted his stats from 1 season (or whatever 13 games) is a small sample size, but they hold a lot more weight IMO then how he was viewed when he was a prospect.

So 70 league average innings from the youngest pitcher in the major leagues, pitching in the American League East, with a sterling pedigree and an excellent postseason performance causes him to be downgraded? At Hughes's age Santana, for example, put up a 6.50 ERA in 80 or so innings...

Well, then isn't the opposite situation just as true?Joba Chamberlain has thrown 24 innings in the majors, after 88 innings in his whole minor league career, spanning exactly one season (2007). Sure he was incredible and clearly has terrific stuff but that doesn't change the fact that its a VERY small sample size in professional baseball.

Hence why Ive been saying I still like Hughes better

 

[Alias]

Interesting perspective over at SOSH... looking at it from a business side of things:f you want to look at this as a business (which the Twins apparently do)...if you look at their attendance from 1982-2007 vs. their wins, the Twins do OK from an attendance perspective as long as they're .500 or better - roughly "in contention". Their average year over that 25 is 78 wins and a 1.8 million attendance (strike screws this straight average up a little, but...). This average though has a high deviation.When the Twins are winning under 75 games they have historically drawn under 1.5 milliion fans, and in 2000 drew 1 million people with a 69-93 record.Compare this to the 1.8-2.4 million they draw when at or above .500. Their core business objective is probably not to win a championship, but to stay competitive enough to avoid a massive dropoff in attendance. Last year was tough - they drew 2.3 million only winning 79 games - the fans seem to have a grace period year with them where they'll put up with them losing for 1 year, but the 2nd year gets ugly - 1997/98 is a good example when they went from mediocre to bad in 97 they still drew 1.5 million, but dropped to that 1.0-1.2 million range from 98-00. 01 they won 85 games and were right back up to 1.7 mil.The difference to the Twins between being "in contention" and "2nd division" is probaly 30-40M in gate revenue. This may explain some of THEIR hesitation in this trade - Hughes probably increases the chances of staying competitive in 08 (if we think next year he's better than Lester) even though the rest of the Yankee offer isn't terrific. The Tiger deal may change that calculus - they may realize the ONLY way they're staying competitive is to keep Santana. Just a thought....

Here's another way to break it down from a Boston "busines side of things" perspective:

In his career, derailed by a bout with cancer, Lester is 11-2 in 26 starts. He was paid 384,000 in '07, 35K per win... This is the first off season where Lester will be healthy and he will be looking forward to spring training after coming up big in game 4 in the World Series. I think it is conservative to predict at least 10-15 wins for Lester and 26-30 starts in '08.Johan Santana wants 1 million per week, a la Clemens. If Santana wins 22-25 games, that is a million per win.Is Johan's salary demand prohibitive? Shouldn't the Sox be content with the prospect of Lester producing 10-15 wins at 40K per win compared to Santana's 1 million per win? I know Johan should earn his money in the post season, but Lester was no slouch in the big game.

 

[shadyridr]

Fair enough, but I dont see too many yankee fans calling Joba a 2008 All Star(like sox fans are Ellsbury)

Oh come on... 1) It was a comment made by Wilked that Ellsbury has the potential to be an all star caliber CF.

2) I'm pretty sure you guys don't want us painting all Yankees fans with a broad brush every time Shady says something crazy.

blasphemy

 

[shadyridr]

Sammy what team are you a fan of? You seem like the most (only?) unbiased guy here.

 

[Alias]

Twins could have received an offer they like from Boston and are shopping it around to see if Angels, Mets, Dodgers, or anyone else can top it before they commit.

My

 

[Workhorse]

What I meant is he is no longer a prospect so we should stop referring to him as the #1 Yankee prospect. It's like saying hey look at my grades from High School after you have worked in the field for a few years. Granted his stats from 1 season (or whatever 13 games) is a small sample size, but they hold a lot more weight IMO then how he was viewed when he was a prospect.

So 70 league average innings from the youngest pitcher in the major leagues, pitching in the American League East, with a sterling pedigree and an excellent postseason performance causes him to be downgraded? At Hughes's age Santana, for example, put up a 6.50 ERA in 80 or so innings...

Well, then isn't the opposite situation just as true?Joba Chamberlain has thrown 24 innings in the majors, after 88 innings in his whole minor league career, spanning exactly one season (2007). Sure he was incredible and clearly has terrific stuff but that doesn't change the fact that its a VERY small sample size in professional baseball.

Fair enough, but I dont see too many yankee fans calling Joba a 2008 All Star(like sox fans are Ellsbury)

Ellsbury has a much longer track record to project from as a professional baseball player. He's been in pro ball since 2005, logging close to 300 games from A ball through the major league playoffs. Joba's appeared in 39 games in his pro career.

who would you rather have?

Joba. But I'm a Red Sox fan with a VERY good team already. I'd rather take the chance on Joba with a much higher ceiling than Ellsbury, even if he has a smaller chance of achieving it than Ellsbury does.If I'm say, the Twins, I don't know if I could afford to take that chance.

 

[ooofffaaa]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins.

Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby Crosby

Twins get: Dan Haren

A's get: Jose Reyes

Other players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

 

[EZD222]

Twins could have received an offer they like from Boston and are shopping it around to see if Angels, Mets, Dodgers, or anyone else can top it before they commit.My

Just heard on the Mike and the Mad Dog that the Mets have jumped back into the talks. Still not budging on Reyes though so its still doubtful on there part.

 

[Sammy3469]

Sammy what team are you a fan of? You seem like the most (only?) unbiased guy here.

No one really, I'm really just a huge baseball fan in general...I grew up in RDU when the only MLB games on tv were the putrid Braves teams of the 80s, but went to BOATLOADS of Durham Bulls and Carolina Mudcat games.I go to a bunch of Yankees games so I end up following them, but wouldn't really call myself a fan like you or some of the other guys on this board.

 

[Redwes25]

Twins could have received an offer they like from Boston and are shopping it around to see if Angels, Mets, Dodgers, or anyone else can top it before they commit.My

Just heard on the Mike and the Mad Dog that the Mets have jumped back into the talks. Still not budging on Reyes though so its still doubtful on there part.

Mets have nothing to trade other than Reyes so not sure how they could have joined the talks unless they are willing to part with him.

 

[Alias]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins. Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby CrosbyTwins get: Dan HarenA's get: Jose ReyesOther players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

Doesn't make any sense opposing rumor...Jon Heyman on WFAN:- Mets have jumped back in on Johan Santana.- Mets will not include Reyes.- Heyman has been told by a Minnesota person that Mets have no shot without Reyes.- Red Sox are still not including 2 of the 3 players the Twins want.- Thinks Twins are committed to trading him.- Still may happen in the next hour to Boston.

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins.

Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby Crosby

Twins get: Dan Haren

A's get: Jose Reyes

Other players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

The mets HAVE to make that deal, if its there for them. Do the A's really think Haren and Crosby are worth Reyes? Could they do that deal straight up if so?

 

[Yankee23Fan]

The three team thing brings up something that has been bugging me in this.

Assuming they haven't tried, why haven't the Yankees or Red Sox tried a three team deal where Baltimore moves Bedard thinking he is going out of the division, but bring him back for not nearly as much as what they have to give up for Santana?

Maybe doing it without Batltimore knowing is too hard.

 

[Reaper]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins. Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby CrosbyTwins get: Dan HarenA's get: Jose ReyesOther players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

The "Untouchable" Reyes Damn the Mets will never be taken seriously again!!!!!!!

 

[Sea Bass]

I'm going to miss this thread after something official happens with Santana.

 

[ooofffaaa]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins.

Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby Crosby

Twins get: Dan Haren

A's get: Jose Reyes

Other players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

The mets HAVE to make that deal, if its there for them. Do the A's really think Haren and Crosby are worth Reyes? Could they do that deal straight up if so?

I'm guessing the entire Mets farm system would be traded as well.I really can't see this happening though

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins.

Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby Crosby

Twins get: Dan Haren

A's get: Jose Reyes

Other players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

The mets HAVE to make that deal, if its there for them. Do the A's really think Haren and Crosby are worth Reyes? Could they do that deal straight up if so?

I'm guessing the entire Mets farm system would be traded as well.I really can't see this happening though

I guess that would depend on how high Beane is on Reyes. I realize Crosby is injury prone, but you can't plan on injuries, and he's a capable fill-in for the irreplacable Reyes. Adding him into the mix makes this a must in my mind. I can sort of see keeping Reyes over Sanatana(especially with that sweetheart contract he signed), but thats too much to turn down I think.

 

[[icon]]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins. Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby CrosbyTwins get: Dan HarenA's get: Jose ReyesOther players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

I JUST bought tickets to the Civil Rights game ($75ea for 10th row behind home) here in Memphis (Mets vs ChiSox) and was just tellling the GF at lunch how much I'm looking forward to seeing Reyes play in a small minor league stadium setting.

 

[Alias]

So how much of a chance does that trade have of being legit?, given it says PROPOSED - doesn't add up to me.

 

[ooofffaaa]

Here is why Santana will be a Met - dare to dream Mets fans:

1) They’re not re-signing him

2) The Red Sox dont really need Santana & the only reason why they were involved was to thwart the Yanks.

3) The Twins would rather trade him to the National league

4) Johan wants to play for the Mets and hit in the National league

5) We have the money to resign him and Omar needs him to save his job

or

the Twins could just be using us as leverage against the Red Sox since the Yankees dropped out.

 

[Sammy3469]

So how much of a chance does that trade have of being legit?, given it says PROPOSED - doesn't add up to me.

I get the sense that the Twins are just crossing their T's and/or Beane is strying to drum up interest since nothing will happen with Haren/Bedard until something definitive happens with Santana.edit: at least that's what i'd be doing if I was either party...FWIW bp is saying that the Twins want an independant medical opinion on Lester's arm to make sure its pristine.

 

[Liquid Tension]

It also probably needs to be mentioned that the Tigers-Marlins trade probably ended all Sox-Twins trade talk since Sox didnt wanna include any top prospects for Santana meanwhile FLA got 2 top prospects for their stars.

Although this seems like a backhanded jab at ellsbury/lester, it actually does make sense. Maybin and Miller are probably both rated higher than ellsbury (and certainly Lester) and Cabrera is not quite as valuable as Santana. If I'm Minnesota, i take a good hard look at the Marlins haul and go talk to the Angels or Dodgers.

In fairness to the teams lining up for Johan, Miggy is not a free agent at the end of 08, so its a bit of a different scenario.

Cabrera is a .950 OPS guy but he is a defensive liability and that is a factor in the discussion of value. You get the feeling he will be on 1st base very soon. There are a lot of calculations for how much defense is worth but it is safe to say that Cabrera's bad defense costs him at least 50 points of OPS.

 

[30283]

Fair enough, but I dont see too many yankee fans calling Joba a 2008 All Star(like sox fans are Ellsbury)

Oh come on... 1) It was a comment made by Wilked that Ellsbury has the potential to be an all star caliber CF.

2) I'm pretty sure you guys don't want us painting all Yankees fans with a broad brush every time Shady says something crazy.

I agree, painting with a broad brush isnt good. But you can;t honestly tell me that he's the only one saying it. From what I've read and heard over the past few days, the guy might as well be jesus in CF.

I think I'll start a Red Jesus alias.

 

[Funkley]

Hard to believe that the Twins would watch Reyes get moved without being the one's that land him.

 

[Liquid Tension]

NY Daily News

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball...llions_and.html

Brian Cashman, Yanks balk at millions and Phil Hughes for Johan Santana

Wednesday, December 5th 2007, 10:22 AM

Brian Cashman is not worried about Johan Santana's (below) possible move to Boston - his call is to go with the kids in the rotation.

NASHVILLE - Even though George Steinbrenner is no longer the one to say it, Brian Cashman had better be right about Phil Hughes.

The Yankee GM, who is staking his job on his young-gun pitchers, has walked away from a 4-for-1 trade of players the Twins were agreeable to for Johan Santana at the winter meetings that included Hughes, but not Ian Kennedy (as Minnesota initially requested) or any of the Bombers' other top prospects. By doing so, Cashman has apparently handed one of the best young pitchers in baseball to the Red Sox for a parcel of prospects that is also likely to be a far cry from the Twins' original asking price for their premier lefthander.

But it is more than just Cashman's belief in Hughes that suddenly put the Yankees in full retreat after Hank Steinbrenner had sounded the "Charge!" on Santana. Believe it or not, the final decision not to go through with a deal that was on the table - one that would have sacrificed Hughes, Melky Cabrera, 23-year-old Double-A righthander Jeff Marquez and 22-year-old A-ball third baseman Mitch Hilligoss - was based on money.

Once Andy Pettitte announced he was returning to the fold for $16 million, it meant the Yankees had committed $408.4 million this winter to retain six players. The acquisition of Santana would have meant tacking on another $125 million to that figure, and Cashman, who never wanted to do the Santana deal in the first place, blanched at the prospect of adding another $20 million to a payroll that was already on the cusp of $200 million, again. In this respect, the timing of Pettitte's decision to return - while initially seen as giving the Yankees additional leverage in their dealings with the Twins on Santana - actually gave Cashman the "out" he needed.

Bad as it was to be sacrificing Hughes, Cashman told the Yankee high command, look at what the payroll was going to be now if they added $20 million-$21 million for Santana on top of the $16 million they just tacked on with Pettitte. At that point, there was considerable internal debate as to whether to proceed with Santana even after the Twins had backed off from Kennedy and picked Marquez, who is regarded as a second-tier pitching prospect, and Hilligoss, a Wade Boggs-type singles-hitting third baseman who did have a 35-game hitting streak last season and led the South Atlantic League in hits.

In the end, Cashman prevailed, convincing Hank and Hal Steinbrenner of something he could never have done with their dad - that trading for Johan Santana was simply too expensive for the New York Yankees. Left unsaid was why the Yankee payroll is once again out of hand. For starters, there's the $10 million that is being frittered away on Carl Pavano next season and another $4 million for Kei Igawa that is separate from his $26 million posting fee. And had Cashman not chosen to let Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera play out the season before dealing with them as free agents, he would have saved at least a year and a couple of million apiece on their contracts.

In fact, the payroll glut would have been only for one year as some $80 million for Pettitte, Pavano, Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Mussina, Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi come off the books after '08. But that apparently was not a consideration for Cashman. The GM never wanted to do this Santana deal, never wanted to get tied up in another expensive long-term contract for a pitcher and, above all, never wanted to give up Hughes.

Cashman wants his legacy to be the young guns - Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Kennedy - and he is banking on them forming the nucleus of a rotation that would better that of the Red Sox. That would certainly be a reach, especially if Santana joins Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and the rookie phenom they wouldn't give the Twins, Clay Buchholz. For all the Yankee hype about Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy, nothing is said for the fact that none of them has thrown more 165 innings in a season while Santana has given the Twins more than 900 over the last four years.

Unlike Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski, who boldly sacrificed his two top prospects - lefthander Andrew Miller and center fielder Cameron Maybin - to go for it all in a deal for Florida's two franchise players Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, Cashman is overly proctective of his prospects.

With his own contract expiring after next season, Cashman better have an idea as to where all those innings are going to come from and he'd better be right that Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy are the real deal.

Especially Hughes.

From what I read, the Twins were willing to accept a deal that included Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Marquez, and Mitch Hilligoss.

it is absurd that the Yankees will end up paying ARod $50 mil more than they needed to (nobody was going to pay him that much for that long) and then they worry about money? They could have saved 5 mil a year...easy. It's funny because it is so easy to get enamored with your prospects. I was in the same corner as Cobalt in that the Yankees should make the above deal and don't look back (Cobalt even included Kennedy if that is what it took). Then you start reading about Hughes really throwing 95 MPH but his hammy slowed him last year (yet he was still pretty much effective). Then you read about how great the kid is and you say to yourself maybe what I watched was a kid who good poise and 4 very effective pitches and if the fastball is 3-4 MPH faster then he is a #1.

Now you can look at Santana having an ERA over 4 for the 2nd half of the year and numbers after his 17 K game and you start to question if the best pitcher in baseball is done...at 28? By I hope the Sox get that bum.

I write this just to illustrate how it is easy to look at a side and then justify it.

My take is that I like to see a guy perform and then look at the stats and give my value to players. In my blog (Bring it on Icon) I will give my opinions about players I see and go against the grain many times but my predictions are out there and my track record is good. The problem is that when I am evaluating minor leaguers, I have not seen these guys play so it is a crap shoot. If what I saw last year was Hughes with just normal development and polishing to continue, then the Yanks are foolish not to trade Santana and Melky plus two b prospects for Santana. Money is nothing when you consider almost 60 mil in Kei Igawa, Mussina, Giambi and Pavano (and another 5 per yr on ARod)....Now if Hughes is throwing 95 then you have a different story and the I can see the brass having differing opinions.

 

[Liquid Tension]

What I meant is he is no longer a prospect so we should stop referring to him as the #1 Yankee prospect. It's like saying hey look at my grades from High School after you have worked in the field for a few years. Granted his stats from 1 season (or whatever 13 games) is a small sample size, but they hold a lot more weight IMO then how he was viewed when he was a prospect.

So 70 league average innings from the youngest pitcher in the major leagues, pitching in the American League East, with a sterling pedigree and an excellent postseason performance causes him to be downgraded? At Hughes's age Santana, for example, put up a 6.50 ERA in 80 or so innings...

We get it, YOU think Hughes will develop into an ACE pitcher, regardless of what kind of numbers he put up this year in the bigs, because other players like Johan had worst debut seasons, so therefore so will Hughes. And you agree with Cashman for essentially not doing a straight up trade for Johan because you overvalue Hughes.

That's more than a little unfair...even taking off the prospect/non-prospect tag, there's still a lot of scouts out there that think Hughes is better than Joba. He still has 4 plus pitches while Joba only has 2, he's stilll only 22, he had 5 very good starts to end the year, and all his peripheral numbers were more than adequate (I mean a 1.28 WHIP for a 21-yr old is more than OK). He's still more of a sure thing than Joba since no one really knows if Joba can pitch effectively as a SP.

Joba has a good curve as well and started in the minors. He will be fine as long as he stays away from "midges."

 

[Liquid Tension]

What I meant is he is no longer a prospect so we should stop referring to him as the #1 Yankee prospect. It's like saying hey look at my grades from High School after you have worked in the field for a few years. Granted his stats from 1 season (or whatever 13 games) is a small sample size, but they hold a lot more weight IMO then how he was viewed when he was a prospect.

So 70 league average innings from the youngest pitcher in the major leagues, pitching in the American League East, with a sterling pedigree and an excellent postseason performance causes him to be downgraded? At Hughes's age Santana, for example, put up a 6.50 ERA in 80 or so innings...

Well, then isn't the opposite situation just as true?Joba Chamberlain has thrown 24 innings in the majors, after 88 innings in his whole minor league career, spanning exactly one season (2007). Sure he was incredible and clearly has terrific stuff but that doesn't change the fact that its a VERY small sample size in professional baseball.

The key is to look at the minor league numbers and then look at the physical ability of the guys. For example, how is his bat speed, his plate coverage (can he turn on a fastball but still protect the outer half of the plate), his eye/patience, his power, how does the ball come off his bat, does he have power to the opposite field, etc...For a pitcher you go through the same important factors (does he lose velocity or control pitching from the stretch, how is his control, the movement on his fastball, does he throw his change with the same motion and arm slot as his fastball, does he throw his curve and slider from a similar arm slot, what are his speeds on his different pitches, can he throw inside, can he hold runners on, etc...) and then weigh it all in looking at how he performed at the big league level for his "first audition." If Hughes pitched like he did on a sore leg, it is impressive. I see a guy who has life on a fastball so his 91 is better than some guys 93-4. i see a guy who has an excellent curve ball and a good change to go along with a plus slider. His control was not as good as you want, but it was not terrible either. He was able to pitch inside and outside and that is important. He will be a solid pitcher, but you have to see how he does from a scouting standpoint and combined with his minor league numbers come up with a conclusion. The big league numbers are only a tiny sample and should not be anything other than a small % of your value.Can someone post Hughes and Kennedy's minor league numbers for the past 2 years?

 

[Liquid Tension]

From what I've read and heard over the past few days, the guy might as well be jesus in CF.

And Hughes, on the mound, then? Seriously.... can we get this thread back on track?

Can hear the announcer now when the Yanks play the Red Sox"Stepping into the batters box is Jesus...God pitches and ..."

 

[Liquid Tension]

What I meant is he is no longer a prospect so we should stop referring to him as the #1 Yankee prospect. It's like saying hey look at my grades from High School after you have worked in the field for a few years. Granted his stats from 1 season (or whatever 13 games) is a small sample size, but they hold a lot more weight IMO then how he was viewed when he was a prospect.

So 70 league average innings from the youngest pitcher in the major leagues, pitching in the American League East, with a sterling pedigree and an excellent postseason performance causes him to be downgraded? At Hughes's age Santana, for example, put up a 6.50 ERA in 80 or so innings...

Well, then isn't the opposite situation just as true?Joba Chamberlain has thrown 24 innings in the majors, after 88 innings in his whole minor league career, spanning exactly one season (2007). Sure he was incredible and clearly has terrific stuff but that doesn't change the fact that its a VERY small sample size in professional baseball.

Hence why Ive been saying I still like Hughes better

Are you saying you like Hughes better than Joba?

 

[shadyridr]

What I meant is he is no longer a prospect so we should stop referring to him as the #1 Yankee prospect. It's like saying hey look at my grades from High School after you have worked in the field for a few years. Granted his stats from 1 season (or whatever 13 games) is a small sample size, but they hold a lot more weight IMO then how he was viewed when he was a prospect.

So 70 league average innings from the youngest pitcher in the major leagues, pitching in the American League East, with a sterling pedigree and an excellent postseason performance causes him to be downgraded? At Hughes's age Santana, for example, put up a 6.50 ERA in 80 or so innings...

Well, then isn't the opposite situation just as true?Joba Chamberlain has thrown 24 innings in the majors, after 88 innings in his whole minor league career, spanning exactly one season (2007). Sure he was incredible and clearly has terrific stuff but that doesn't change the fact that its a VERY small sample size in professional baseball.

Hence why Ive been saying I still like Hughes better

Are you saying you like Hughes better than Joba?

yes

 

[Liquid Tension]

So how much of a chance does that trade have of being legit?, given it says PROPOSED - doesn't add up to me.

I don't see it happenning; it doesn't make sense

 

[Alias]

I'm out. :slamsmoneyontable:

3:30 p.m. ET: A Minnesota official said Wednesday that he is "99 percent sure" that left-hander Johan Santana will still be a Twin when the meetings end Thursday. The Twins still figure to deal Santana sometime before spring training, though it now seems no longer a complete lock that he will be traded to the Red Sox or the Yankees.

 

[Sammy3469]

What I meant is he is no longer a prospect so we should stop referring to him as the #1 Yankee prospect. It's like saying hey look at my grades from High School after you have worked in the field for a few years. Granted his stats from 1 season (or whatever 13 games) is a small sample size, but they hold a lot more weight IMO then how he was viewed when he was a prospect.

So 70 league average innings from the youngest pitcher in the major leagues, pitching in the American League East, with a sterling pedigree and an excellent postseason performance causes him to be downgraded?

At Hughes's age Santana, for example, put up a 6.50 ERA in 80 or so innings...

Well, then isn't the opposite situation just as true?Joba Chamberlain has thrown 24 innings in the majors, after 88 innings in his whole minor league career, spanning exactly one season (2007). Sure he was incredible and clearly has terrific stuff but that doesn't change the fact that its a VERY small sample size in professional baseball.

The key is to look at the minor league numbers and then look at the physical ability of the guys. For example, how is his bat speed, his plate coverage (can he turn on a fastball but still protect the outer half of the plate), his eye/patience, his power, how does the ball come off his bat, does he have power to the opposite field, etc...For a pitcher you go through the same important factors (does he lose velocity or control pitching from the stretch, how is his control, the movement on his fastball, does he throw his change with the same motion and arm slot as his fastball, does he throw his curve and slider from a similar arm slot, what are his speeds on his different pitches, can he throw inside, can he hold runners on, etc...) and then weigh it all in looking at how he performed at the big league level for his "first audition." If Hughes pitched like he did on a sore leg, it is impressive. I see a guy who has life on a fastball so his 91 is better than some guys 93-4. i see a guy who has an excellent curve ball and a good change to go along with a plus slider. His control was not as good as you want, but it was not terrible either. He was able to pitch inside and outside and that is important. He will be a solid pitcher, but you have to see how he does from a scouting standpoint and combined with his minor league numbers come up with a conclusion. The big league numbers are only a tiny sample and should not be anything other than a small % of your value.Can someone post Hughes and Kennedy's minor league numbers for the past 2 years?

Go to baseballcube.com

 

[Tremendous Upside]

What I meant is he is no longer a prospect so we should stop referring to him as the #1 Yankee prospect. It's like saying hey look at my grades from High School after you have worked in the field for a few years. Granted his stats from 1 season (or whatever 13 games) is a small sample size, but they hold a lot more weight IMO then how he was viewed when he was a prospect.

So 70 league average innings from the youngest pitcher in the major leagues, pitching in the American League East, with a sterling pedigree and an excellent postseason performance causes him to be downgraded?

At Hughes's age Santana, for example, put up a 6.50 ERA in 80 or so innings...

Well, then isn't the opposite situation just as true?Joba Chamberlain has thrown 24 innings in the majors, after 88 innings in his whole minor league career, spanning exactly one season (2007). Sure he was incredible and clearly has terrific stuff but that doesn't change the fact that its a VERY small sample size in professional baseball.

The key is to look at the minor league numbers and then look at the physical ability of the guys. For example, how is his bat speed, his plate coverage (can he turn on a fastball but still protect the outer half of the plate), his eye/patience, his power, how does the ball come off his bat, does he have power to the opposite field, etc...For a pitcher you go through the same important factors (does he lose velocity or control pitching from the stretch, how is his control, the movement on his fastball, does he throw his change with the same motion and arm slot as his fastball, does he throw his curve and slider from a similar arm slot, what are his speeds on his different pitches, can he throw inside, can he hold runners on, etc...) and then weigh it all in looking at how he performed at the big league level for his "first audition." If Hughes pitched like he did on a sore leg, it is impressive. I see a guy who has life on a fastball so his 91 is better than some guys 93-4. i see a guy who has an excellent curve ball and a good change to go along with a plus slider. His control was not as good as you want, but it was not terrible either. He was able to pitch inside and outside and that is important. He will be a solid pitcher, but you have to see how he does from a scouting standpoint and combined with his minor league numbers come up with a conclusion. The big league numbers are only a tiny sample and should not be anything other than a small % of your value.Can someone post Hughes and Kennedy's minor league numbers for the past 2 years?

Go to baseballcube.com

Baseballreference.com also has minor league stats now

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins. Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby CrosbyTwins get: Dan HarenA's get: Jose ReyesOther players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

I JUST bought tickets to the Civil Rights game ($75ea for 10th row behind home) here in Memphis (Mets vs ChiSox) and was just tellling the GF at lunch how much I'm looking forward to seeing Reyes play in a small minor league stadium setting.

That #### ain't happening.

 

[icon]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins. Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby CrosbyTwins get: Dan HarenA's get: Jose ReyesOther players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

I JUST bought tickets to the Civil Rights game ($75ea for 10th row behind home) here in Memphis (Mets vs ChiSox) and was just tellling the GF at lunch how much I'm looking forward to seeing Reyes play in a small minor league stadium setting.

That #### ain't happening.

You are certainReyes will be on the Mets roster March 29th?

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins. Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby CrosbyTwins get: Dan HarenA's get: Jose ReyesOther players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

I JUST bought tickets to the Civil Rights game ($75ea for 10th row behind home) here in Memphis (Mets vs ChiSox) and was just tellling the GF at lunch how much I'm looking forward to seeing Reyes play in a small minor league stadium setting.

That #### ain't happening.

You are certainReyes will be on the Mets roster March 29th?

I'd say it's probably a 99% certainty he will be, yes...

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins. Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby CrosbyTwins get: Dan HarenA's get: Jose ReyesOther players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

I JUST bought tickets to the Civil Rights game ($75ea for 10th row behind home) here in Memphis (Mets vs ChiSox) and was just tellling the GF at lunch how much I'm looking forward to seeing Reyes play in a small minor league stadium setting.

That #### ain't happening.

You are certainReyes will be on the Mets roster March 29th?

Assuming he isn't the victim of a botched burglary or some other unforseen circumstance, yes.

 

[Alias]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins.

Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby Crosby

Twins get: Dan Haren

A's get: Jose Reyes

Other players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

More Details on this...http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/santanareyeshar.html

Just got an incredible rumor from a trusted New York sportswriter. Stay with me, because this one's crazy. But rest assured that if the source wasn't good, I wouldn't post it.

Minnesota has initiated talks for a three-way blockbuster with the Twins and A's. Here's how it would go down:

Mets send Jose Reyes, Kevin Mulvey, and Hector Pellot to A's

A's send Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson to Mets

A's send Dan Haren to Twins

Twins send Johan Santana to Mets

Mets get Johan Santana, Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson

A's get Jose Reyes and Kevin Mulvey

Twins get Dan Haren and Hector Pellot

The source says Haren is exactly the type of player the Twins want for Santana, a cheap frontline starter. It's known the Mets would hate to deal Reyes but they would get some value beyond Santana. Billy Beane is happy because he gets Reyes for one more year than he had Haren plus longtime favorite Mulvey. And, he's out of Crosby's contract.

 

[Koya]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins.

Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby Crosby

Twins get: Dan Haren

A's get: Jose Reyes

Other players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

More Details on this...http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/santanareyeshar.html

Just got an incredible rumor from a trusted New York sportswriter. Stay with me, because this one's crazy. But rest assured that if the source wasn't good, I wouldn't post it.

Minnesota has initiated talks for a three-way blockbuster with the Twins and A's. Here's how it would go down:

Mets send Jose Reyes, Kevin Mulvey, and Hector Pellot to A's

A's send Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson to Mets

A's send Dan Haren to Twins

Twins send Johan Santana to Mets

Mets get Johan Santana, Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson

A's get Jose Reyes and Kevin Mulvey

Twins get Dan Haren and Hector Pellot

The source says Haren is exactly the type of player the Twins want for Santana, a cheap frontline starter. It's known the Mets would hate to deal Reyes but they would get some value beyond Santana. Billy Beane is happy because he gets Reyes for one more year than he had Haren plus longtime favorite Mulvey. And, he's out of Crosby's contract.

I won't pretend to know the other guys listed in this deal (other means not Reyes, Santana, Haren and know "of" Mulvey), but this is far from crazy.Let's take a quick primer of the last week.

The Sox REALLY want Santana.

The Yankees REALLY want Santana.

The Angels may really want Santana.

The Twins REALLY want to get as much value for Santana as possible without any risk of injury or having to pay him on his way out the door anyway.

As of today, none of the above has happened. The Sox and Yanks have given a lot of value but there does not seem the right fit. Either don't quite have enough or give too much type deal.

So, it may indeed take a more complicated three team approach.

Haren makes a lot of sense except I STILL have no idea why the A's want to trade him. Maybe, as is the case sometimes, they know something we don't.

Reyes may not have the OBP that you'd think the A's would like, except he is a supreme talent, even at .350 OBP he is an utterly disruptive and productive player and brings a damn good overall glove as well. When you figure how young Reyes still is the A's can think they can coach him up considerably from there and WOW talk about a player... all for freaking bargain for the next 5 or so years.

As a Mets fan, I am very torn on Reyes. From a baseball only standpoint, NO question Id deal him for Santana. You can FIND replacement production on offense. Maybe not from a SS that breaks the mold, but you can find ways (i.e. spend) to get runs. You can't just buy top 3 or top ONE overall pitchers in the league. Emotionally, however, Reyes is a player I PAY to watch beyond production. He is the most fun player in baseball when things are going well for him. It is beyond a joy.... so everyday joy watching, or "that" much better chance of a championship with Santana and the ULTIMATE joy.

I'd love to find a way to have the latter (without Santana albeit) while keeping the former. Tough question for Mets fans. Likely moot cause I doubt this happens.

BUT, maybe bringing in a third team can allow the Mets to find SOME other angle that fits. Not getting my hopes up there.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins.

Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby Crosby

Twins get: Dan Haren

A's get: Jose Reyes

Other players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

More Details on this...http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/santanareyeshar.html

Just got an incredible rumor from a trusted New York sportswriter. Stay with me, because this one's crazy. But rest assured that if the source wasn't good, I wouldn't post it.

Minnesota has initiated talks for a three-way blockbuster with the Twins and A's. Here's how it would go down:

Mets send Jose Reyes, Kevin Mulvey, and Hector Pellot to A's

A's send Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson to Mets

A's send Dan Haren to Twins

Twins send Johan Santana to Mets

Mets get Johan Santana, Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson

A's get Jose Reyes and Kevin Mulvey

Twins get Dan Haren and Hector Pellot

The source says Haren is exactly the type of player the Twins want for Santana, a cheap frontline starter. It's known the Mets would hate to deal Reyes but they would get some value beyond Santana. Billy Beane is happy because he gets Reyes for one more year than he had Haren plus longtime favorite Mulvey. And, he's out of Crosby's contract.

I won't pretend to know the other guys listed in this deal (other means not Reyes, Santana, Haren and know "of" Mulvey), but this is far from crazy.Let's take a quick primer of the last week.

The Sox REALLY want Santana.

The Yankees REALLY want Santana.

The Angels may really want Santana.

The Twins REALLY want to get as much value for Santana as possible without any risk of injury or having to pay him on his way out the door anyway.

As of today, none of the above has happened. The Sox and Yanks have given a lot of value but there does not seem the right fit. Either don't quite have enough or give too much type deal.

So, it may indeed take a more complicated three team approach.

Haren makes a lot of sense except I STILL have no idea why the A's want to trade him. Maybe, as is the case sometimes, they know something we don't.

Reyes may not have the OBP that you'd think the A's would like, except he is a supreme talent, even at .350 OBP he is an utterly disruptive and productive player and brings a damn good overall glove as well. When you figure how young Reyes still is the A's can think they can coach him up considerably from there and WOW talk about a player... all for freaking bargain for the next 5 or so years.

As a Mets fan, I am very torn on Reyes. From a baseball only standpoint, NO question Id deal him for Santana. You can FIND replacement production on offense. Maybe not from a SS that breaks the mold, but you can find ways (i.e. spend) to get runs. You can't just buy top 3 or top ONE overall pitchers in the league. Emotionally, however, Reyes is a player I PAY to watch beyond production. He is the most fun player in baseball when things are going well for him. It is beyond a joy.... so everyday joy watching, or "that" much better chance of a championship with Santana and the ULTIMATE joy.

I'd love to find a way to have the latter (without Santana albeit) while keeping the former. Tough question for Mets fans. Likely moot cause I doubt this happens.

BUT, maybe bringing in a third team can allow the Mets to find SOME other angle that fits. Not getting my hopes up there.

It's a bull#### trade rumor. Why would a sportswriter give this scoop to some guy on a blog instead of breaking it himself? I mean, seriously.And besides, the Twins are going to want more than just Haren for Santana. I also don't see the Mets taking on Crosby's salary when they're going to have to turn around and pay Santana $130MM or whatever.

 

[Koya]

Reported on ESPN 1050 radio a proposed 3 way deal between Mets, A’s and Twins.

Mets get: Johan Santana & Bobby Crosby

Twins get: Dan Haren

A's get: Jose Reyes

Other players are believed to be involved but as for now this is all that’s been reported

More Details on this...http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/santanareyeshar.html

Just got an incredible rumor from a trusted New York sportswriter. Stay with me, because this one's crazy. But rest assured that if the source wasn't good, I wouldn't post it.

Minnesota has initiated talks for a three-way blockbuster with the Twins and A's. Here's how it would go down:

Mets send Jose Reyes, Kevin Mulvey, and Hector Pellot to A's

A's send Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson to Mets

A's send Dan Haren to Twins

Twins send Johan Santana to Mets

Mets get Johan Santana, Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson

A's get Jose Reyes and Kevin Mulvey

Twins get Dan Haren and Hector Pellot

The source says Haren is exactly the type of player the Twins want for Santana, a cheap frontline starter. It's known the Mets would hate to deal Reyes but they would get some value beyond Santana. Billy Beane is happy because he gets Reyes for one more year than he had Haren plus longtime favorite Mulvey. And, he's out of Crosby's contract.

I won't pretend to know the other guys listed in this deal (other means not Reyes, Santana, Haren and know "of" Mulvey), but this is far from crazy.Let's take a quick primer of the last week.

The Sox REALLY want Santana.

The Yankees REALLY want Santana.

The Angels may really want Santana.

The Twins REALLY want to get as much value for Santana as possible without any risk of injury or having to pay him on his way out the door anyway.

As of today, none of the above has happened. The Sox and Yanks have given a lot of value but there does not seem the right fit. Either don't quite have enough or give too much type deal.

So, it may indeed take a more complicated three team approach.

Haren makes a lot of sense except I STILL have no idea why the A's want to trade him. Maybe, as is the case sometimes, they know something we don't.

Reyes may not have the OBP that you'd think the A's would like, except he is a supreme talent, even at .350 OBP he is an utterly disruptive and productive player and brings a damn good overall glove as well. When you figure how young Reyes still is the A's can think they can coach him up considerably from there and WOW talk about a player... all for freaking bargain for the next 5 or so years.

As a Mets fan, I am very torn on Reyes. From a baseball only standpoint, NO question Id deal him for Santana. You can FIND replacement production on offense. Maybe not from a SS that breaks the mold, but you can find ways (i.e. spend) to get runs. You can't just buy top 3 or top ONE overall pitchers in the league. Emotionally, however, Reyes is a player I PAY to watch beyond production. He is the most fun player in baseball when things are going well for him. It is beyond a joy.... so everyday joy watching, or "that" much better chance of a championship with Santana and the ULTIMATE joy.

I'd love to find a way to have the latter (without Santana albeit) while keeping the former. Tough question for Mets fans. Likely moot cause I doubt this happens.

BUT, maybe bringing in a third team can allow the Mets to find SOME other angle that fits. Not getting my hopes up there.

It's a bull#### trade rumor. Why would a sportswriter give this scoop to some guy on a blog instead of breaking it himself? I mean, seriously.And besides, the Twins are going to want more than just Haren for Santana. I also don't see the Mets taking on Crosby's salary when they're going to have to turn around and pay Santana $130MM or whatever.

My main point is twofold:1 - The easy way (Boston or Yanks giving enough prospects and be done with it) is not happening.

2 - With 1 in mind, a three way, more complicated deal is perhaps the only way to really get this done and I could see the Mets getting involved at that point.

The question in general is the old is Reyes worth it thing mixed in.

I heard just a blip on the radio about the Mets and some late flurry activity today, but was not able to hear what. It was on the Michael "you know what rhymes with" K show about 30 min ago.

 

[Balco]

Like I have said in other threads, I think the best move for the Twins right now is to keep Santana. They can compete with their roster as it is shaped right now. They just need to remain healthy.

If they fall out of contention at the break, trade Santana and Nathan for prospects.

This team can compete, IMO. If Liriano can come back at 80 %, that is a great # 2 starter.

Johan Santana

Francisco Liriano

Scott Baker

Boof Bonser

Kevin Slowey

Bullpen top 3:

Joe Nathan

Pat Neshek

Matt Guerrier

Offense has holes offensively, especially on the left side of the infield. They need to DH Mauer a little more, Redmond is a good backup catcher, and Mauer is a great pure hitter. His defense is unreal, but he seems to get worn down at catcher. give him a couple days off a week to DH.