The Keeper Conundrum. (1 Viewer)

[Soulfly3]

No names, so it isn't an AC topic...

We started a Keeper league this year, amongst good friends. PPR, start 1/2/3/1/1/1/1. 12 team league

Anyways... doesn't matter... Let's say it's time to choose your keepers and you're stacked w great players at RB/WR (imo, the ONLY positions worth keeping.)

All things equal (in regards to stud status) would you, in a Keep 3 League:

- Keep 3 WRs

- Keep 3 RBs

- Mix n Match

Again... let's assume you own 5RBs and 5WRs that are indisitinguishable in stud status.... What do you do? 

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Hard to say no to keeping three absolute studs RBs if possible, if you're able to start all 3.

 

[Soulfly3]

Hard to say no to keeping three absolute studs RBs if possible, if you're able to start all 3.

Yep, there is a flex position.

So, we start 2 rbs, 3 wrs, 1 flex. 

Essentially, can start 3 RBs or 4 WRs... which makes for an an interesting question.

 

[lod001]

Mix and match. If you keep 3RBs and at draft time there are good RBs available at your picks, what are you gonna do, keep taking RBs? If you had 3 RBs and I was picking in front of you, and an equal RB & wr was available, I would take the Wr. Give yourself options. That's the one reason I can come up with.

 

[Crippler]

Let’s use names

so you have Barkley, Gurley, Elliott, Hopkins, Beckham, Thomas. 

That is huge stud crew there. I keep all 3 RB. Stud RBs harder to find compared to WRs. Stud RBs more consistent also. In draft, WR has much more depth. Now if you replace Elliott with Gordon, I probably go 2 RB and 1 WR. Do a mock on how draft would go. One should have a pretty good idea what the league values by past drafts. 

 

[Bfrahm3]

I’d probably lean to a 2RB 1WR mix. But it somewhat depends what I think the other owners are keeping as well.

 

[Interseptopus]

I would keep 3 stud RBs if I had them. WRs are easier to come by each year. Stud RBs usually stay stud RBs. I mean look at this year, Brandin Cooks was drafted fairly late in most drafts and he's WR17. Lockett was a very late WR in most leagues and he's WR16. I'd have a hard time not keeping Nuk, but stud Rbs are very difficult to come by.,

Let's say I had to decide between keeping 3 between: Gurley, Barkley, Mixon, Nuk, Hill, Thelein. I likely keep Gurley, Barkley, Mixon. I would consider keeping Nuk over Mixon but I think I'd have a greater chance at landing a decent WR in round 1 than I would a decent RB. 

 

[Gally]

I would take into consideration what other teams are likely to keep and what will be available once the draft start.  Typically in minimal keeper leagues (3 or less keepers) I treat it as a redraft league and go with the best players over best value (if there is a salary or round cost).  It seems like in your scenario there is no penalty for keeping players so that takes the value aspect away anyway and just go with straight the best players. 

I know we are supposed to assume all players are on the same studly tier but without names it really is hard to evaluate.  In a vacuum there are less do everything RB's therefore scarcity should dictate that the RB's would be taken over the WR's.  However, it is likely that by the time you get to the 3rd RB you may have dropped a tier and that WR1 is now a tier above the third RB in contention. 

 

[Soulfly3]

So, ya.. in our case it's keep any 3. No penalties. No losing the rnd u drafted the guy in etc etc. 

Again, i know this may derail and turn this into an AC thread, but i dont take advice anyways and go w my gut. 

But for my unbelievable squad, i have to keep 3 of Barkley, Conner, Chubb, Cohen, Mike Thomas. Mike Evans. 

There are more soooolid players but those are my studs

 

[fightingillini]

So, ya.. in our case it's keep any 3. No penalties. No losing the rnd u drafted the guy in etc etc. 

Again, i know this may derail and turn this into an AC thread, but i dont take advice anyways and go w my gut. 

But for my unbelievable squad, i have to keep 3 of Barkley, Conner, Chubb, Cohen, Mike Thomas. Mike Evans. 

There are more soooolid players but those are my studs

Barkley and Thomas are locks.  Tough call on the 3rd.  I think Cohen and Evans are out.  Chubb vs Conner is a really tough call.  Flip a coin.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

RBs, supply and demand. 

Or Mahomes -- my league now calls him the "Angel of Death" and no longer uses his actual name.

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Barkley and Thomas are locks.  Tough call on the 3rd.  I think Cohen and Evans are out.  Chubb vs Conner is a really tough call.  Flip a coin.

Agree with this. Seeing the actual players, Barkley and Thomas I'd keep no matter what. I would go Conner with the last one.

 

[Gally]

Barkley and Thomas are locks.  Tough call on the 3rd.  I think Cohen and Evans are out.  Chubb vs Conner is a really tough call.  Flip a coin.

Agree with this. Seeing the actual players, Barkley and Thomas I'd keep no matter what. I would go Conner with the last one.

I think its a really easy choice and go with Barkley/Chubb/Thomas.  Cohen and Evans aren't even in the conversation.  Conner is close but seems too TD dependent moving forward.  I think Pitt takes a step back next year and Cleveland is on the rise. 

 

[fightingillini]

So, ya.. in our case it's keep any 3. No penalties. No losing the rnd u drafted the guy in etc etc. 

Again, i know this may derail and turn this into an AC thread, but i dont take advice anyways and go w my gut. 

But for my unbelievable squad, i have to keep 3 of Barkley, Conner, Chubb, Cohen, Mike Thomas. Mike Evans. 

There are more soooolid players but those are my studs

What do the other rosters look like?  Could you deal 2 of Conner, Chubb, or Evans and get a top 5 RB like Zeke or a top WR like Hopkins?

 

[Soulfly3]

Trade deadline in our league passed. 

We haven't discussed if we'll reopen a week or so before keepers locked in 

Fwiw, barring season long injury, its saquon, chubb and thomas locked in for me

Others in the league are shocked im not keeping conner, but while i really do like him, his needle has been trending downwards imo

 

[fightingillini]

Trade deadline in our league passed. 

We haven't discussed if we'll reopen a week or so before keepers locked in 

Fwiw, barring season long injury, its saquon, chubb and thomas locked in for me

Others in the league are shocked im not keeping conner, but while i really do like him, his needle has been trending downwards imo

You should reopen it.  It's not a real keeper league if you can't make deals before the keeper lock.  I play in a 4-8 auction keeper league, and there are always a deal or two made before the keepers lock.

If you can trade Conner and Chubb for Zeke or McCaffrey, you're pulling the trigger all day.  You shouldn't be penalized for having too many good options.  Now maybe you can't make a deal.....but should be able to try.

 

[Soulfly3]

Im sure we will, it just hasn't been discussed yet. 

 

[shadyridr]

Id keep the 3 you expect to go highest in the draft. IMO at this time that's Barkley (duh), Conner, and Chubb.

 

[Hankmoody]

You should reopen it.  It's not a real keeper league if you can't make deals before the keeper lock.  I play in a 4-8 auction keeper league, and there are always a deal or two made before the keepers lock.

If you can trade Conner and Chubb for Zeke or McCaffrey, you're pulling the trigger all day.  You shouldn't be penalized for having too many good options.  Now maybe you can't make a deal.....but should be able to try.

Agree with that.  If you really want to reward good roster decisions (and keep up activity late in the year) you need to allow this.  Giving up a 4th keeper for a draft pick bump helps both owners and there's a ton of incentive to give up that 4th guy since you get nothing anyway - so there's not going to be a huge benefit.  Giving up a two-for-one will also be popular.  Consider these rosters:

Gurley
Chubb
Edelman

Barkley
Tyreek
JJSS
Woods

Makes all the sense in the world for both teams to do a Chubb for JJSS and Woods trade or something along those lines.

I'd definitely keep 3 RB in the league posted where they can all start unless it's a whacky scoring system and RB are underpowered compared to WR scoring.

 

[Interseptopus]

So, ya.. in our case it's keep any 3. No penalties. No losing the rnd u drafted the guy in etc etc. 

Again, i know this may derail and turn this into an AC thread, but i dont take advice anyways and go w my gut. 

But for my unbelievable squad, i have to keep 3 of Barkley, Conner, Chubb, Cohen, Mike Thomas. Mike Evans. 

There are more soooolid players but those are my studs

Barkley, Conner, Chubb without a doubt. Considering even if you're drafting at the end of round 1, you are likely to get Thomas or Evans IMO. Zero chance you get Chubb or Conner. 

 

[fightingillini]

Barkley, Conner, Chubb without a doubt. Considering even if you're drafting at the end of round 1, you are likely to get Thomas or Evans IMO. Zero chance you get Chubb or Conner. 

No way Thomas lasts more than 3 picks into the draft piece....in fact he would probably be the first player selected.

You may be right if owners were keeping players in place of draft spots....(like I keep Sony Michel for a 7th round pick, type thing).  But we think that Soulfly's league is keep 3 no cost, so you're keeping you're best 3 players.  In this case Thomas would probably be THE best player on the board when the draft starts.

 

[Raleigh Engineers]

I have a very similar decision in a keep-3 standard scoring league.

Barkley, CMC, Conner, Theilen, Julio

My league is RB crazy with keepers and in the draft, so I'm likely going to keep the 3 RBs. 

 

[dickey moe]

No names, so it isn't an AC topic...

We started a Keeper league this year, amongst good friends. PPR, start 1/2/3/1/1/1/1. 12 team league

Anyways... doesn't matter... Let's say it's time to choose your keepers and you're stacked w great players at RB/WR (imo, the ONLY positions worth keeping.)

I thought that until this season, when I drafted Mahomes mid-round in a Keep 2 league. Will have to decide between two out of MGordon, DHopkins, and Mahomes next season.

 

[Interseptopus]

I thought that until this season, when I drafted Mahomes mid-round in a Keep 2 league. Will have to decide between two out of MGordon, DHopkins, and Mahomes next season.

1 QB league (I assume) and you're going to keep a QB? I understand Mahomes has been awesome this year, but I'd seriously re-think that. Mahomes shouldn't drafted within the first 2 rounds of most 1 QB leagues next year. Unless this is one of those keep for the draft pick you got them at leagues or something. Then I could see the value. 

 

[tangfoot]

You wait until the last possible instant and keep the three stud RBs if they're healthy.  I would be willing to swap out Conner and Thomas if you want to get slippery.

 

[dickey moe]

1 QB league (I assume) and you're going to keep a QB? I understand Mahomes has been awesome this year, but I'd seriously re-think that. Mahomes shouldn't drafted within the first 2 rounds of most 1 QB leagues next year. Unless this is one of those keep for the draft pick you got them at leagues or something. Then I could see the value. 

At this point in the season in most leagues Mahomes has outscored all other QB's by at least 50 pts, and he's nearly 100 pts ahead of any of those in his peer group (i.e., Watson, Trubisky, Wentz, Prescott, etc.). I'm usually not a fan of drafting a QB early either, but Mahomes needs to be in the conversation.

 

[Lionsfan011]

Either 3 RB's or 2 RB's + 1 WR. I'd lean towards 3 RB's. Even in the case of wanting to keep 2RB/1WR, I would think you could trade the 3rd RB for a stud WR plus more due to RB scarcity. 

 

[Interseptopus]

At this point in the season in most leagues Mahomes has outscored all other QB's by at least 50 pts, and he's nearly 100 pts ahead of any of those in his peer group (i.e., Watson, Trubisky, Wentz, Prescott, etc.). I'm usually not a fan of drafting a QB early either, but Mahomes needs to be in the conversation.

We'll have to disagree here. IMO that's a huge waste of a keeper spot. You can get him round 1 if you really wanted to. Or round 2.

You could keep Gordon and Hopkins, draft Mahomes round 1 and it's as if you kept Mahomes and drafted Gordon. 100% certain Mahomes is there round 1 no matter where you pick. Depending on your spot (and I'm guessing late since you do have Mahomes), you won't get Gordon or Hopkins. And definitely not round 2. 

 

[wlwiles]

Agree with that.  If you really want to reward good roster decisions (and keep up activity late in the year) you need to allow this.  Giving up a 4th keeper for a draft pick bump helps both owners and there's a ton of incentive to give up that 4th guy since you get nothing anyway - so there's not going to be a huge benefit. 

I second the bolded part.  In my keeper league we leave the trade window open all year long.  There's always a couple of trades in the off-season (especially the week before keepers lock and the draft) where someone with more talent than can be kept will deal a player for a draft pick improvement.  Chubb + a 5th for a 3rd type deals happen a lot in this league.  We play Keep 2, so there's always a few teams that have 3-4 keeper worthy players, and it allows fun trades to be able to take place.  

Even late in the season, owners who are in the consolation bracket may trade players that can't be kept to a playoff team for a pick.  Last year Bell couldn't be kept, but was sold to a guy for a 5th who was making a playoff push.  Our consolation bracket is played out for draft pick order though (winner gets 1st pick, 2nd gets 2nd pick, etc) so owners that are "out of it" are still battling for draft seeding, which prevents wholesale team dumping/selling. 

 

[davidwb]

Since you can start 3 RBs, that's probably the way to go...but, if you fill up on one position (either RB or WR), it makes it difficult to grab one more if the opportunity arises during your draft.  So, 2 RBs and 1 WR might be better from that perspective.

 

[oldmanhawkins]

No names, so it isn't an AC topic...

We started a Keeper league this year, amongst good friends. PPR, start 1/2/3/1/1/1/1. 12 team league

 Anyways... doesn't matter... Let's say it's time to choose your keepers and you're stacked w great players at RB/WR (imo, the ONLY positions worth keeping.)

All things equal (in regards to stud status) would you, in a Keep 3 League:

- Keep 3 WRs

- Keep 3 RBs

- Mix n Match

Again... let's assume you own 5RBs and 5WRs that are indisitinguishable in stud status.... What do you do? 

I'd lean toward keeping all three RBs if for some reason my personal rankings couldn't sort it out.  Keeper leagues are generally about creating stacked starting lineups.  Very few teams are able to achieve this at the RB position because of scarcity and injuries. Sure, you'll have to go WR heavy at the draft but you will also be able to use early picks on TE and QB if you desire (or even more RBs...trades happen).  

However, if your keepers are locking so far before draft I would be wary of keeping certain RBs due to changing landscape and injuries.  Stud WR are safer in that regard. 

For example, I wouldn't keep Conner if I had to decide now.  Seems like a stud, draft and FA might change that.  Meanwhile, Chubb seems like a safe bet but all you need is a training camp injury to tank his keeper value.  It isn't like dynasty where the arrow continues to point up through general situation and injury uncertainty. 

In my league I've tended to take a different route, out of necessity.  I haven't had too many stud RBs so I've kept studs at other position and went RB heavy in the draft (picking a RB in the first 5-6 rounds hoping to hit on 3).  

 

[Gally]

At this point in the season in most leagues Mahomes has outscored all other QB's by at least 50 pts, and he's nearly 100 pts ahead of any of those in his peer group (i.e., Watson, Trubisky, Wentz, Prescott, etc.). I'm usually not a fan of drafting a QB early either, but Mahomes needs to be in the conversation.

That is THIS SEASON which is shaping up to one for the history books.  It is likely that he regresses back some to the pack rather than keeping up historically studly numbers for another year which would make your point go away.  The chances of him being this dominant next year are very small.  If you want to take that chance go ahead but I would rather play the percentages that he falls back to the rest of the QB pack and try and find next year's breakout at the draft. 

 

[joey]

When you keep so few players, my decision making process is easy: create (or acquire) overall redraft rankings and keep the top 3 ranked players. If any decision is close to a tie, prefer the RB. 

 

[fightingillini]

That is THIS SEASON which is shaping up to one for the history books.  It is likely that he regresses back some to the pack rather than keeping up historically studly numbers for another year which would make your point go away.  The chances of him being this dominant next year are very small.  If you want to take that chance go ahead but I would rather play the percentages that he falls back to the rest of the QB pack and try and find next year's breakout at the draft. 

This.

Record breaking years are always an outlier.  Look what Peyton did after his record breaking 2013.  He went from 5500/55 to 4700/39, which was about a 90 pt drop in one of my leagues.  And his 4700/39 season was a great one.  Tom Brady never had a season close to 2007, where he went 4800/50.....in fact, his next full year (2009) Brady had 4400/28 and was QB7. 

Sometimes players have years where everything just falls into place, which is what Mahomes is experiencing.  Nobody is saying that Mahomes won't be great in 2019.....he may even be QB1.  But the safe bet is that he will score 70+ less than 2018.....which dictates the edge won't be that significant, so that owner should lean towards keeping a stud RB like Gordon.

All it takes is a tougher schedule, or a key player (like Tyreek) to get hurt for everything to significantly change.

 

[beerbuff]

I think you should always keep the best available players regardless of RB/WR position but would also include the top 2 TE's next year (Kelce and Ertz) and top QB (Mahomes) into keeper consideration. I totally understand the reasons not to keep a QB however Mahomes has not shown any signs of slowing down and even with regression could still be the top QB in the league next year so I would at least look at him based on your other potential keepers.