The Miami Dolphins ask Tua to play under a 5th year option. Miami extends Tua beyond 2024 and settle on 4yrs/$212M (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

It doesn't happen often at QB and Tua is a starting Pro Bowl QB this year, however...many Miami fans watched him regress as the season went on
He did almost nothing in the Playoff game at KC, weather was a factor of course but he didn't put on a Superman cape of any kind

Would you extend Tua at a rate of $50-$60M per season and put the team in a potential cap sqeeze/hell for years to come?
#200M guaranteed is the going rate these days

If you watch Tua week in and week out as many Miami fans do, you're left feeling like he has to have a perfect set up to succeed and that's almost like a handicap at Quarterback
If you were the Miami General Manager/Grier, would you put a fat contract in front of him and not look back?

Many Miami fans are questioning his abilities right now and even the biggest fans of Tua are at least witnessing that he is not producing in the bigger games vs the better teams.
Don't hold back, what are your thoughts about Tua and his future as the Miami starting QB?

 

[fruity pebbles]

They can ask but he’ll hold out

 

[Ministry of Pain]

They can ask but he’ll hold out

That is my first answer, they might ask him which is bad if you know he is likely holding out, these conversations need to happen behind closed doors and they need to just be Grier/Tua/Agent and no outside leaks about what the plan is. I also know they can extend Tua and play games with the cap so we could function for at least another season before we feel the impact of that contract

That still won't help 2-3 years down the road

 

[Doug B]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

 

[Desert_Power]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

It's ridiculous how quickly folks turn on QBs in a team sport.

 

[Mitchie]

another wrinkle is the guaranteed money, with his history he's potentially one good hit from retirement.

 

[Doug B]

I also know they can extend Tua and play games with the cap so we could function for at least another season before we feel the impact of that contract

The team doesn't have to feel the impact very much, ever, if they use void years and such. Can't do like the Saints and use it on more than two or three players ... but if you think a QB is the answer, that's how you afford them these days.

It's a hard ask for a team to keep hitting on rookie QBs over and over. Next CBA will have to address some things -- might have to save franchises from themselves by getting rid of void-year shenanigans.

 

[Doug B]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

It's ridiculous how quickly folks turn on QBs in a team sport.

And coaches! Planning to start a thread about it at some point. Not during a playoff game, though.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

another wrinkle is the guaranteed money, with his history he's potentially one good hit from retirement.

I wouldn't blink if he took the $30M he's already made, can still walk and be of sound mind, he has a bright future in this World and could do a lot of things
Retiring would be very noble on his part and I think most would understand after all the concussions and injuries he's sustained
He's not built to sustain a lot of hits and that limits what he can do at QB

 

[jrt103]

Is it insane to think the Dolphins could get 80% of Tua's output at less than 50% of his cost with Justin Fields?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Is it insane to think the Dolphins could get 80% of Tua's output at less than 50% of his cost with Justin Fields?

Junior was talking him up earlier today, rumors Miami could make a play for him
-What could Miami get for Tua in a trade, that's my 1st question of what Tua is worth and what we could arm Grier with
Grier cannot Draft well but he can sure trade picks for established players

2023- Tua made $4M...same as Baker Mayfield's salary in Tampa
5th Year Option is roughly $23M

 

[Man In The Box]

As a fan, I’m 90% convinced that Tua isn’t the answer. He’s real good when things are perfect around him. He’s pretty mediocre to downright awful when things get tough.

He was able to stay healthy this year, which was nice to see. But it looks like he put in a little weight in order to be able to take hits and reduce injury risk. The downside is he now has zero mobility (not that he had much to begin with). He’s a GREAT guy and teammate, but I’d prefer they go in another direction as opposed to committing to him long term. The AFC is loaded at QB and he’s just not in that upper echelon IMO.

 

[Max Power]

It's a tough situation because he is more valuable to Miami than any other team. He isn't worth elite QB money though.

I'd imagine a team would give up a first+ for him.

 

[Mitchie]

It's a tough situation because he is more valuable to Miami than any other team. He isn't worth elite QB money though.

I'd imagine a team would give up a first+ for him.

really doubt that, esp. with the money they'd have to throw at a new contract.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Maybe Miami, Chicago and Atlanta do a 3 way trade. Bears get 2.8, falcons get Tua, and Miami gets 1.8 and Fields. Who says no?

 

[Max Power]

It's a tough situation because he is more valuable to Miami than any other team. He isn't worth elite QB money though.

I'd imagine a team would give up a first+ for him.

really doubt that, esp. with the money they'd have to throw at a new contract.

I'm learning the money piece has really turned into sign a deal that is team friendly for 3 years and figure out the dead money later. A single first plus some throw ins a good deal for a starting QB.

One day Teams will learn the Tannehills, Garoppolos, and Derek Carrs of the world aren't legitimate options. Maybe Tua isn't either, but he is a tier above those guys.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10104968-dolphins-tua-tagovailoa-doesnt-feel-any-pressure-at-all-on-contract-talks

He's saying the right things so far

 

[Ministry of Pain]

How is Philly feeling right now after they paid Jalen Hurts $250M?
I can go down this list but IMHO the only QB that really earned all this money and deserved almost every red cent was Joe Burrow and he didn't start or finish the season

Miami cannot extend and lock up money with Tua. McDaniel has made Tua look good in his system but when things are not perfect then you tend to see how limited Tua is.
His mobility is questionable post broken hip socket which should have made Miami gun shy at the Draft
Rumor has it that the owner wanted Herbert and Grier flat told him "we're taking Tua" and waived off the owner...is that true? I've heard it on local sports talk a couple times

If Tua does not want to play under his 5th year option, then i think Miami needs to trade him, if he's worth $50M then Miami should get a decent pick for him.
Tua is accurate but he cannot make a play when the pocket breaks down, that's not a minor flaw, it's a major problem especially in these games vs better teams.
If you watched Tua when he was stepping up in the pocket and Connor Williams at Center and Robert Hunt at RG were clearing out the middle so he had a wide open window to step up and throw the football between the hash marks in a way I have never seen before and its because Tua is not that big and you can't ask him to throw over the DL

 

[rockaction]

Tua isn't the answer but you're still probably going to sign him. There's something about quarterbacks and fate that I haven't quite gotten a handle on yet.

There was no way the Jets were circumventing fate with Aaron Rodgers. Who doesn't have an Achilles' heel in New York?

There's no way Miami circumvents fate with Tua. You guys were destined for each other. Who doesn't have an arthritic hip in Florida, anyway?

 

[pinkstapler]

Just here to remind everyone Daniel Jones got a 4 year $160million contract. And let's not pretend "well of course that looks bad in hindsight" and ignore the fact it looked like doo doo from the minute it was announced. Starting QBs in the NFL get paid. Tua will get paid. He won't reset the market, and I doubt he seeks to do that. But he will get at least what DJ just got, and he's significantly better than him. Is Tua a top 10 QB? Maybe not, but the issue is, there are only 10 of them. Tua is at the very least still one of the top 20 QBs in the entire world and if the Dolphins don't want to pay him, someone else will. Hell, I'd take him on the Steelers in a heartbeat. As fun as Joshua Dobbs was to root for this season, he's also the ultimate reminder back ups are back ups for a reason. If the Dolphins want to field a team people will actually pay money to watch, I don't see many other options they have than working out something with Tua.

 

[Da Guru]

Can`t understand why if one QB gets paid, the next guy up no matter ability wants the same. If Tua is rated the 10-12 best QB, or any QB for that matter that is where their salary should be slotted.

 

[Boston]

Due to the $ and the importance of the position it feels like the QB position baseline for some is not just being good but being great (or being good but on a rookie contract)...the big issue I have with some of these QB conversations is it is very easy to say you want to move on from a QB...the tough part is you need to have a plan B and not everyone is as fortunate as the Bears are having the #1 pick which gives them options...the second issue is are you willing to give the HC and GM a good amount of job security if you want to move on from their current starting QB...it is real easy to talk about a reset at the position but if your job is on the line that is a totally different story...so, I do get the trepidations with Tua but if you want to move on from him who is a realistic replacement for him (crossing your fingers and hoping for the next Purdy is not a plan) that is not a step backwards and if you understand that it could be a good sized step backwards are you willing to give the HC/GM a window to figure it out even if it means multiple losing seasons?

 

[Boston]

Can`t understand why if one QB gets paid, the next guy up no matter ability wants the same. If Tua is rated the 10-12 best QB, or any QB for that matter that is where their salary should be slotted.

It's not just QBs...pretty much how it works at every position and how it works in every sport...sometimes it is all about the timing.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Can`t understand why if one QB gets paid, the next guy up no matter ability wants the same. If Tua is rated the 10-12 best QB, or any QB for that matter that is where their salary should be slotted.

Yep. Tua's a pretty good, but not elite, QB. Miami shouldn't mind paying him "pretty good QB" money.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What Will Happen with Tua Tagovailoa's Contract Negotiation? Could He Take Less w/ the Dolphins?

After the Miami Dolphins were eliminated from the NFL playoffs by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs we start looking ahead to Tua Tagovailoa's upcom...

www.youtube.com

LeBatard and crew discuss this, kind of split opinions.

 

[massraider]

He's 25, 26 in March.

Players get better. See Jared Goff.

 

[Doug B]

One day Teams will learn the Tannehills, Garoppolos, and Derek Carrs of the world aren't legitimate options. Maybe Tua isn't either, but he is a tier above those guys.

Let's say you time-travelled the entire 2000 Ravens or 2002 Buccaneers to the 2023 season and had them play out the regular season (+ playoffs if they made it). Would they still win titles, or would Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson hold them back too much (the 2000 Ravens all-time defense notwithstanding).

IOW: GMs in the very recent past used to be able to point to Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Joe Flacco (and maybe Eli Manning?) as "guys who won titles" and maybe get to thinking "why can't you build a team like that in 2023-24?" Is something, indeed, different about the current NFL versus the NFL of 10-20 years ago that precludes a team winning a title with a league-average QB?

 

[Doug B]

One day Teams will learn the Tannehills, Garoppolos, and Derek Carrs of the world aren't legitimate options.

Also, Garoppolo started a recent Super Bowl. Had the 49ers got the breaks that night and won, that elevates Garoppolo's rep that much?

 

[pinkstapler]

Due to the $ and the importance of the position it feels like the QB position baseline for some is not just being good but being great (or being good but on a rookie contract)...the big issue I have with some of these QB conversations is it is very easy to say you want to move on from a QB...the tough part is you need to have a plan B and not everyone is as fortunate as the Bears are having the #1 pick which gives them options...the second issue is are you willing to give the HC and GM a good amount of job security if you want to move on from their current starting QB...it is real easy to talk about a reset at the position but if your job is on the line that is a totally different story...so, I do get the trepidations with Tua but if you want to move on from him who is a realistic replacement for him (crossing your fingers and hoping for the next Purdy is not a plan) that is not a step backwards and if you understand that it could be a good sized step backwards are you willing to give the HC/GM a window to figure it out even if it means multiple losing seasons?

Great point. And to add to it, even if you gave McDaniel's this leeway, does he want to stick around and stink for 'x' years? He's one of the hottest coaches in the league right now. The team is pretty full of talent to the point even if they started a tackling dummy at QB, they aren't going to to be a bottom 5 team in the league and put themselves in position to take a swing at a top rookie QB. And even then, say they are or they trade a bunch of capital to move up and get one in 2025; I'd say there's a greater than 50% chance that rookie turns out to be worse than Tua lol. The whole premise is built on assuming McDaniel's doesn't like/wants to move on from Tua, but I haven't read or heard anything that comes close to suggesting that.

 

[Da Guru]

Can`t understand why if one QB gets paid, the next guy up no matter ability wants the same. If Tua is rated the 10-12 best QB, or any QB for that matter that is where their salary should be slotted.

Yep. Tua's a pretty good, but not elite, QB. Miami shouldn't mind paying him "pretty good QB" money.

Exactly. In MLB not every decent UFA starter gets Verlander money.

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

Can`t understand why if one QB gets paid, the next guy up no matter ability wants the same. If Tua is rated the 10-12 best QB, or any QB for that matter that is where their salary should be slotted.

Yep. Tua's a pretty good, but not elite, QB. Miami shouldn't mind paying him "pretty good QB" money.

Exactly. In MLB not every decent UFA starter gets Verlander money.

QB is the most important position on the field, but not decisive. As a Broncos fan I hope the League learns a few lessons and holds off on paying these players 30 or 40 percent of their cap. Starting to look like even Mahomes isn't worth that much unless you can consistently draft skilled position players to play on rookie contracts.

 

[Max Power]

One day Teams will learn the Tannehills, Garoppolos, and Derek Carrs of the world aren't legitimate options. Maybe Tua isn't either, but he is a tier above those guys.

Let's say you time-travelled the entire 2000 Ravens or 2002 Buccaneers to the 2023 season and had them play out the regular season (+ playoffs if they made it). Would they still win titles, or would Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson hold them back too much (the 2000 Ravens all-time defense notwithstanding).

IOW: GMs in the very recent past used to be able to point to Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Joe Flacco (and maybe Eli Manning?) as "guys who won titles" and maybe get to thinking "why can't you build a team like that in 2023-24?" Is something, indeed, different about the current NFL versus the NFL of 10-20 years ago that precludes a team winning a title with a league-average QB?

I think the aspect of team building is a little different now than 10-20 year ago. 20 years ago I think GMs were happy with a good run game and solid D. The current NFL doesn't run as much and the trend line keeps moving towards the passing game. So naturally I think a bigger emphasis is on the QB today and with the starting QB salaries eating up a larger portion of the cap, it is reasonable to assume they have the ability to carry a team.

As a Bears fan we're about to see what that that Franchise prefers. Trade the 1.01 and surround a decent QB with a ton of talent (similar to Detroit) or take a swing for the fences with Caleb Williams. I can't honestly say which method I think will work out better for them.

 

[Lansdowne]

Can`t understand why if one QB gets paid, the next guy up no matter ability wants the same. If Tua is rated the 10-12 best QB, or any QB for that matter that is where their salary should be slotted.

Supply and demand. You can rotate RBs WRs and TEs but ideally you’re only playing one QB each game, so you have to get it right. Franchises go many years struggling to find their QB. Look at the Browns, they sucked so bad for so long at finding a QB that they sold out to get Watson. Teams will overpay a free agent QB because most of the times the very best QBs never make it to free agency, a team that covets their franchise guy will extend him before it gets to that point. The most ideal way to get a QB is to hit on your draft pick, and saving that, you either pay the money or you trade for one and pay in draft picks along with the money needed. Daniel Jones got paid because the pickings were very slim in free agency last offseason and there were more teams that needed a QB than viable starting QBs available. That’s where supply and demand comes into play.

Edit - I’d see it all the time in baseball where mediocre pitchers got paid like aces, and that’s because they were the best of what’s left available. The prices just get higher and higher.

 

[Max Power]

One day Teams will learn the Tannehills, Garoppolos, and Derek Carrs of the world aren't legitimate options.

Also, Garoppolo started a recent Super Bowl. Had the 49ers got the breaks that night and won, that elevates Garoppolo's rep that much?

True, I though Garoppolo was still ascending at that point. He does have a solid W-L record. I was looking at it through a more recent lens. Tannehill moving to Ten, Gar to LVR and Carr to NO... At those points in their careers they most likely peaked and they get starting jobs at middle of the road teams.

This year we will get the Russell Wilsons and Kirk Cousins likely hitting the market and I think teams will wrongly assume they are the missing link to take them to the next level.

This is where I see a guy like Tua who isn't exponentially better than other starting options and will likely cost much more to acquire is still a better option to Franchises as I still see some potential there that can be tapped.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

It's ridiculous how quickly folks turn on QBs in a team sport.

Isn't the opposite true here as well though? Tua has been in the league 4 years and this is his first great season, and it's questionable how much of that was really Tua given that it's a great system loaded with offensive talent all around hiim. And even in this great season he showed huge flaws and really folded into a shell at the end of every close game.

It's not like he's been doing it consistently for 10 years and had a bad game or two. In reality he had a some monster games over about half a season against bad teams while playing in a loaded offense/system. Then he fell apart time and time again when the team needed to lean on him even a little bit.

 

[song]

precludes a team winning a title with a league-average QB?

see Brock Purdy?

 

[Doug B]

precludes a team winning a title with a league-average QB?

see Brock Purdy?

I don't know what Brock Purdy is or isn't just yet. Statistically, he's been very good.

Good object lesson, though -- had Garoppolo stayed healthy and remained on the 49ers, would their 2023 fortunes be different? Derek Carr?

I think Kirk Cousins has been an unlucky player over his career, and would be a freak on the current Chiefs or Niners.

 

[-OZ-]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

It's ridiculous how quickly folks turn on QBs in a team sport.

It’s also ridiculous to think many of these QBs will get paid ~$50 million.

Maybe Miami, Chicago and Atlanta do a 3 way trade. Bears get 2.8, falcons get Tua, and Miami gets 1.8 and Fields. Who says no?

I like Tua, but with his likely future contract he’s not worth the 1.8.

 

[SwampDawg]

One day Teams will learn the Tannehills, Garoppolos, and Derek Carrs of the world aren't legitimate options. Maybe Tua isn't either, but he is a tier above those guys.

Let's say you time-travelled the entire 2000 Ravens or 2002 Buccaneers to the 2023 season and had them play out the regular season (+ playoffs if they made it). Would they still win titles, or would Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson hold them back too much (the 2000 Ravens all-time defense notwithstanding).

IOW: GMs in the very recent past used to be able to point to Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Joe Flacco (and maybe Eli Manning?) as "guys who won titles" and maybe get to thinking "why can't you build a team like that in 2023-24?" Is something, indeed, different about the current NFL versus the NFL of 10-20 years ago that precludes a team winning a title with a league-average QB?

Could you...probably...does any team want to? NO. Reason being that isn't going to sell unless you win it all, zero margin for error. Say Miami trades Tua, gets a first round pick and just for arguments sake sign Gardner Minshew and his 15:9 TD to INT ratio on the cheap and then spent a ton on making the defense a beast. They go 11-6 again and we will say even win the AFC East but lose to the Bengals with Burrow back next year in the opening round of the playoffs 24-10. Fans will lose it saying you cheaped out on QB and you'll never win. Hill will be upset and want to be traded when he only has 1100 yards and 6 TD's. You basically better win it all if you are going this route because it won't be fun football to watch.

 

[SwampDawg]

precludes a team winning a title with a league-average QB?

see Brock Purdy?

I don't know what Brock Purdy is or isn't just yet. Statistically, he's been very good.

Good object lesson, though -- had Garoppolo stayed healthy and remained on the 49ers, would their 2023 fortunes be different? Derek Carr?

I think Kirk Cousins has been an unlucky player over his career, and would be a freak on the current Chiefs or Niners.

Cousins is the guy that came to my mind if you moved on from Tua. Assuming he fully recovers he would thrive in this system. But he is also a short term solution.

 

[menobrown]

It's interesting to me looking at remaining teams and how different the QB landscape is for the 4 teams in each conference.

You look at the AFC with all 4 QB's first round picks, 3 on massive extensions and the 4th the second pick in the draft.

Then you got the NFL were one QB is a 7th round pick on a rookie deal, Goff is paid average to maybe below average relative to starting QB's but was almost a throw in part of the Stafford trade, Baker was a cheap FA making $4m and while the original cost to acquire Love was a first round pick his status entering the off-season was such that he agreed to a one year extension for just $13M.

In other words in one conference every team alive made siginficant investments in their starting QB and in the other conference the remaining 4 teams made fairly meager to average at best investments in their QB's.

Teams can take a lot of different routes to address their QB sitaution and be viable contenders but the one thing I don't see working out is when you pay good QB's like they are elite.

 

[steelcityman]

If they had beaten Buffalo at the end of season, they probably beat Buffalo again this past weekend, and are going to play KC in Miami this weekend, and win that one too, so AFC championship. They had a lot of injuries down the stretch. Too many, that cost them that 2 seed. And they have to avoid playing in cold weather for playoffs, they need to be a 2 seed. I think the HC loves Tua, and they will work out a deal for him.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

It's ridiculous how quickly folks turn on QBs in a team sport.

It’s also ridiculous to think many of these QBs will get paid ~$50 million.

Maybe Miami, Chicago and Atlanta do a 3 way trade. Bears get 2.8, falcons get Tua, and Miami gets 1.8 and Fields. Who says no?

I like Tua, but with his likely future contract he’s not worth the 1.8.

I’m pretty sure he is worth 1.8+ but I’m just throwing out a random trade idea. Most likely path is they work out a deal that doesn’t hurt their cap in 24/25 but then starts to escalate hits 26/27.

 

[Desert_Power]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

It's ridiculous how quickly folks turn on QBs in a team sport.

Isn't the opposite true here as well though? Tua has been in the league 4 years and this is his first great season, and it's questionable how much of that was really Tua given that it's a great system loaded with offensive talent all around hiim. And even in this great season he showed huge flaws and really folded into a shell at the end of every close game.

It's not like he's been doing it consistently for 10 years and had a bad game or two. In reality he had a some monster games over about half a season against bad teams while playing in a loaded offense/system. Then he fell apart time and time again when the team needed to lean on him even a little bit.

It is a great system, but it is also one built off of Tua's strengths. He was great last season too. Statistically better just kept getting concussed.

I don't think it is fair that all the injuries on the team, bad drops, and poor coaching decisions get turned into Tua "falling apart". That is certainly going to be the narrative from talking heads all offseason though. It is going to get worse when he signs an extension because Ross, with all his flaws, is smart enough to know the salary cap is not really the constraint.

 

[Doug B]

I don't think it is fair that all the injuries on the team, bad drops, and poor coaching decisions get turned into Tua "falling apart".

Why don't fans tend to give coaches and QBs more of a pass when an overall team just gets bogged down by injuries? "Injuries are part of the game", sure. And sometimes, a team can luck the heck out and have someone step up for a hurt player without missing a beat. But a team just losing too many players doesn't strike me as being a "BS excuse" for a team's immediate bad fortune.

 

[Max Power]

It's interesting to me looking at remaining teams and how different the QB landscape is for the 4 teams in each conference.

You look at the AFC with all 4 QB's first round picks, 3 on massive extensions and the 4th the second pick in the draft.

Then you got the NFL were one QB is a 7th round pick on a rookie deal, Goff is paid average to maybe below average relative to starting QB's but was almost a throw in part of the Stafford trade, Baker was a cheap FA making $4m and while the original cost to acquire Love was a first round pick his status entering the off-season was such that he agreed to a one year extension for just $13M.

In other words in one conference every team alive made siginficant investments in their starting QB and in the other conference the remaining 4 teams made fairly meager to average at best investments in their QB's.

Teams can take a lot of different routes to address their QB sitaution and be viable contenders but the one thing I don't see working out is when you pay good QB's like they are elite.

Thinking about this from QB evaluation standpoint.

AFC Teams, those QBs were taken 2nd, 3rd, 3rd and 5th QBs in their respective drafts.
NFC Teams, QBs taken 1st (new team), 1st (new team), 4th and 9th

 

[Gachi]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

It's ridiculous how quickly folks turn on QBs in a team sport.

They’ve already turned on Jalen Hurts. Doesn’t take long at all.

 

[Mitchie]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

It's ridiculous how quickly folks turn on QBs in a team sport.

It’s also ridiculous to think many of these QBs will get paid ~$50 million.

Maybe Miami, Chicago and Atlanta do a 3 way trade. Bears get 2.8, falcons get Tua, and Miami gets 1.8 and Fields. Who says no?

I like Tua, but with his likely future contract he’s not worth the 1.8.

I’m pretty sure he is worth 1.8+ but I’m just throwing out a random trade idea. Most likely path is they work out a deal that doesn’t hurt their cap in 24/25 but then starts to escalate hits 26/27.

1.8 is kinda bonkers dude, was drafted 1.5, he's underperformed expectations, his contract is coming up for renewal and he has health issues that call his long term value into question.

 

[Gatorman]

Well, Since we have taken this discussion out of the Dolphin thread and to its own location, here is my take:

On his 5th year option, Tua is a 23 million dollar cap hit. Miami (specifically McDaniel and Grier) both like Tua, so I assume he will resign. Figure his "market value" is somewhere around 35-40 mil per year (based on what the QB landscape looks like) on the normal end, and 50 mil on the high end. With his injury history and the need to create some cap space, Miami likely signs him to a 4 or 5 year 150 - 200 million dollar deal with it really being a 2 year deal with some dead money on year 3 if Tua doesn't improve (Roster bonuses etc on the contract to protect the phins and Tua if the concussions come back up etc). Grier for all of his faults has been good at creating deals that give Miami an "out" if the player craps the bed, or ways to mitigate the cap hits if the player works out and mIami needs the cap room.

They likely lower his cap hit to 10 million this year, freeing up 13 mil in cap space to help sign more guys for the 2 year "contender" window of 2024 and 2025.

2026 if Miami has won a title or not will be time for the "hard" choices. Stephen Ross wants to win and has money to burn. If he tells grier "buy me a championship" I am sure there will be a lot of signing bonus money to pay now and likely a "tear down and rebuild" in 2027 regardless of Tua and the Dolphins' fate.

 

[Desert_Power]

I don't think it is fair that all the injuries on the team, bad drops, and poor coaching decisions get turned into Tua "falling apart".

Why don't fans tend to give coaches and QBs more of a pass when an overall team just gets bogged down by injuries? "Injuries are part of the game", sure. And sometimes, a team can luck the heck out and have someone step up for a hurt player without missing a beat. But a team just losing too many players doesn't strike me as being a "BS excuse" for a team's immediate bad fortune.

It's particularly bad when it takes a whole position group. Notable how well Buffalo's defense has adjusted. Remember the Ravens having some really bad years recently (even still with RBs).

Only one team wins the Super Bowl each year and most of the other 31 feels like they failed.