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The Monday night "What's my chance of winning thread" (1 Viewer)

L

lazyike

Footballguy
I'll get it started. I'm up 17 points. PPR, 6 point passing TDs. Bonuses for long tds, reaching 100 yds receiving and rushing and 300 yds passing

I have:

Ingram and Tucker left

He has:

Orton, Torrey Smith and Jimmy Graham

I give myself about 20% chance of winning

(PS D#*n you Cecil Shorts)

Feel free to Post your Monday night needs and estimated odds

 
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In my two leagues that are still up in the air doesn't look good

League 1: Down 31 with Flacco, Ingram, Hogan vs S Smith Give myself about 25% to win. On the upside it probably doesn't matter, 99% I face this guy again two weeks from now to open playoffs

League 2: Down 71 with Mosley, Bradham, Forsett, and S Smith left put my chances at less than 5%

 
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Need 15 points from Tucker tonight. So an elite kicker game is needed.

My chances? Not good. Not good at all.

 
Need 9 points combined from Ingram and the Ravens D/ST to get a 1st round bye in the playoffs.

I don't love either matchup but at least defensive scoring only takes into account "positive plays" like sacks, turnovers, TDs, not points/yardage allowed.

I should win based on projections but I don't feel great about it

 
Up 9, I have Watkins to play, he has Brees.. Non-PPR, 4 points for passing TDs. I'm thinking its 50/50. Win and I have a bye.

 
Need Brees to outscore Torrey by 17+...NON-ppr, Bonus pts for 300+ yds, length of tds, 6 pt tds

I'd say im 50/50 here...

 
In a .5 PPR league, I am done and have a 15.5 lead (barring stat corrections). Opponent has Kenny Stills tonight. I've won several close games this year so I expect to lose tonight, you know, the ol' things even out rule. Ravens pass D is suspect. Just have to hope Graham/Colston/& the RBs are Brees' favorites tonight

 
I have Buffalo's defense in two leagues and a defensive touchdown tonight would be really welcome. In another, I just need Smith and Watkins to not go crazy (I'm up 45 in a non-PPR league with Tucker against Forsett, Smith, and Watkins).

 
Let's see...

In one league I need Mark Ingram, Jimmy Graham, and Justin Tucker to outscore Percy Harvin and Shayne Graham by nine points or more. So 50/50 shot there, I guess.

In the other I need Steve Smith Sr., Shayne Graham, and the New Orleans Saints defense to score less than 55 points. That's looking pretty good.

Fingers crossed.

 
In response to the OP, I'm done and up 62.86 versus Flacco.

More interesting: I could leapfrog the 2nd place team. I'm 5th, will be no worse than 4th, up to 3rd if this guy loses:

He's down 5.26 with Forsett, up against T. Smith

What are my chances?

 
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Have a few...

PPR- Down 4- I have Brees he has Forsett

PPR- Down 8- I have Graham, he has Colston

For the weekly high score payout in one league, I have Brees and he has Graham and I'm down 7 on him.

Lastly, in my IDP league. I'm down 80 with Ingram, Vick, Graham, Mario Williams, and Corey White to his Pierre Thomas and Preston Brown

Figure if I'm lucky I can go 3-1 here. 2-2 or 1-3 is probably more likely

 
I'm down by 3 pts. Opponent is finished. I have Ingram. I need 80yds or a TD. 80yds = 4 pts, TD = 6 pts. Both would be nice for a comfortable win.

I'm not feeling too good about the Ingram vs Balt DEF matchup.

 
Up by 38 points and going against Graham and Forsett.

Opponent needs 39 since I have him beat on tie breaker.

Will clinch 1st place and automatic bye with a win. :pickle:

 
Da Gildz said:
OG_GF said:
Need Watkins and Forsett to total 30 or less in PPR.
Click to expand...
There's always next year.

yo
Click to expand...
I don't think it's a given that 30 is a lock. The total averages of both is somewhere around 28 in my league. It depends on your league's scoring system. Watkins hasn't exactly lit it up the last couple of games. I need Watkins to outscore Forsett tonight. I give it a 50% shot. Fast track should help.

 
Cenobite said:
Da Gildz said:
OG_GF said:
Need Watkins and Forsett to total 30 or less in PPR.
Click to expand...
There's always next year.

yo
Click to expand...
I don't think it's a given that 30 is a lock. The total averages of both is somewhere around 28 in my league. It depends on your league's scoring system. Watkins hasn't exactly lit it up the last couple of games. I need Watkins to outscore Forsett tonight. I give it a 50% shot. Fast track should help.
Click to expand...
Think both those guys are in for big nights...especially Sammy. He feasted on that secondary just a few weeks ago.

 
Got Ingram and a 15-pt lead vs. Graham. If I can just get an average game from Ingram it will take a season high from Graham to blow this.

 
League 1 Up 11 with Graham and he has Jets D. I think I can hold on

League 2. Down 14 with Graham and he has Ingram. Not looking good

 
League #1: Down 97 - 83 and they are a 71% favorite. We've got Ingram and S Graham, they've got Decker and O Daniels. Doesn't look good, but not impossible. Need win to stay in the playoff hunt. Computer says we lose 110-103 29% chance to win. Computer Comschmuter.

League #2: Brees and Jimmy Graham for points in the Toilet Bowl :P Team desimmated by injury after injury this year. Foster out had to start Gray this week. DONE.

League #3: Already won. Would love to see Watkins play well as we need him to finish the season strong. Plus, our league pays for W/L and for total points.

 
I win this game, I'm in 4th with 1 week left. I lose, I'm out of the playoffs. Yes that's how close the standings are in my 12 team league.

Non-PPR 6pt ALL tds

I'm up 37 points going into tonight.

Me: Ingram, Bills D, Tucker

Opponent: Brees, Forsett, Graham CJ0K

Feeling a 6/10 on the confidence scale; been picturing a Brees-Graham fest in my head all day. Please someone tell me I'll be OK

 
Dimenna said:
I win this game, I'm in 4th with 1 week left. I lose, I'm out of the playoffs. Yes that's how close the standings are in my 12 team league.

Non-PPR 6pt ALL tds

I'm up 37 points going into tonight.

Me: Ingram, Bills D, Tucker

Opponent: Brees, Forsett, Graham CJ0K

Feeling a 6/10 on the confidence scale; been picturing a Brees-Graham fest in my head all day. Please someone tell me I'll be OK
Click to expand...
Let's do the math. You get 15 Ingram, 10 Bills D, 10 Tucker

Opponent gets 20 Brees, 15 Forsett, 20 Graham, and 5 CJ

You win by 12 ;)

Lower points for non-PPR a tad for RB's / WR's

 
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Da Gildz said:
Need Brees to outscore Torrey by 17+...NON-ppr, Bonus pts for 300+ yds, length of tds, 6 pt tds

I'd say im 50/50 here...
Click to expand...
same but im down by 23 points. PPR, 10 point bonus for 350 yrds, 6 pt per TD.

I also have bills D going this evening as well. I would say my chances are similar to yours.

 
I am up 7.8, I am done, opponent has Bryce Brown. PPR league.

I really need Fred Jackson to play. If he does, my odds go up a lot. Still, it's going to be very close.

 
1 ppr TD=6

I'm up by 27 and my opponent still has Graham and the Bills D tonight. Not feeling too good about it.

Damn you Cecil Shorts for putting me in this situation!!!

 
Need 14 from Forsett in a standard.

Less than 50% chance I think.

Needed to pick up a WR (with Antonio Brown and Benjamin on a bye) and had a decent group to choose from:

Allen(12), Sanu(10), Harvin/Stills (still to play)

Went with Shorts for a ZERO. Eat my shorts!

I pick any of those other guys and I'm likely a shoe in. This could knock me out.

 
IDP league

up by either 9 tackles or 3 sacks (3:1 ratio)

I have Mario. He has Damon Harrison and Jerry Hughes.

With DL I feel this is a real roll of the dice. We have the advantage but this is like one team throwing two darts blindfolded while we at least get to see what we're aiming at.

 
I am up 37 points in a 1-point PPR league but am done for the week. My opponent still has Brees and Graham. I really need a miracle to win this week. Maybe Ravens DST will shut down Graham...yeah right.

 
My god, Ravens pass D is a hurt locker. I figure my opponent's Kenny Stills will put me out of my misery by halftime.

 
In my game, I need Brees to outscore Pierre Thomas by 20 points. Then, to still have a shot at the playoffs, I need another team to get 19 points out of Tucker and Davis (LB Jets). Got a hunch NEITHER of those will happen so I can get back to not worrying about weekly lineups.

 
In one league I need a good game out of Forset and Tucker to score less than 50 points and Ive got the W.

In another I need 40 points combined from Flaco and Tucker to pull it out.

Looking good on both Id say

 
Mr. Know-It-All said:
In my game, I need Brees to outscore Pierre Thomas by 20 points. Then, to still have a shot at the playoffs, I need another team to get 19 points out of Tucker and Davis (LB Jets). Got a hunch NEITHER of those will happen so I can get back to not worrying about weekly lineups.
Click to expand...
Miracle happened - one more week of misery. But if that miracle happens...I make the playoffs at 6-7...thank God for parity.

 
Both standard, default scoring:

Up 26 with Sammy Watkins against his Justin Forsett... lost, smh.

Down 8 with Baltimore defense, well looking at the defensive stats - 4 sacks, 1 int, 1 td, 27 pa... 525 ya - LOST?!

 
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