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The Most Overrated Player in Fantasy Football? (1 Viewer)

Andre Johnson.   :(
How many unproductive seasons will it take for people to stop drafting this guy in the first 5 rounds?
Considering he has only played for 3 seasons I think your comments are a little harsh. I'll bet you had him on your roster last season expecting WR1 numbers from him and now your a little bitter. He had a decent rookie season with just under 1000 yds and 4 td's (that is not bad for a rookie WR. His Sophmore season was solid with 1142 yds and 6 td's.

Last season startd slow and Johnson was injured on the 2nd play of the game in week 5. He missed the next 4 weeks but put up pretty good the rest of the season, despite obviously not being 100%. I believe he was on the injury report all year. He was a top 10 receiver over the last 7 games of the season (PPR) averaging 14.34 PPG. His OL and QB sucked last year and every year he has been there for that matter, which has resulted diminished TD's not just for him but the whole team.

I think you will see 75-80 receptions, 1100-1200 yeard and 6-8 TD's from Johnson this season. That should qualify him as a viable WR1 or a top WR2. I don't necessarily think a 5th rounder would be that much of a stretch for AJ.

:2cents:
:goodposting: How can a WR who was ranked 23rd in his rookie year and 22nd in his second year be considered unproductive? That 22nd ranking in 2004 is a bit deceptive, because it would have been a mid-teen ranking in most other years except 1995. In 2005, Johnson's 2004 would have been 14th.

Yes, he was basically injured for the first 7 weeks of his 3rd year, but he was still decent for the last 9 weeks. Pro-rated for 16 games, his stats would have put him right around the early 20s, which isn't bad for as anemic as that passing game was. He was definitely overvalued last year, but people like young guys and Houston looked like they were going to be good.

All I can say is that 145 receptions, 2118 yards and 10 TDs is quite an accomplishment in the first 2 years of a WR's career and anyone that says different doesn't realize that Randy Moss', Anquan Boldin's and Michael Clayton's rookie years are exceptions.

 
The two names I first thought of when I read the name of this post was Vick and Johnson. Looks like we have been swimming in the same pool for too long.
DittoTom Brady as QB2

I can't see these guys even being close to their ranking, this year or any.
Elaborate, can't ever see Brady as #2? Well, it's already happened if I'm not mistaken.
You are indeed correct about last year's stats for Brady. I didn't realize how many times New England ended up passing vs rushes last year (564 attempts vs 439 rushes = 56%) - could be due to their defensive issues.However, when the Patriots had better overall teams, Brady was ranked more of a QB8 to QB11 type of ranking (according to my league's rules) which is what I was basing my opinion on.

Dynasty-wise, I wouldn't put Brady better than QB6 behind (in no order) Manning and Manning, CPalmer, DMcNabb, Hasselback, Bulger, and probably even Leinart.

 
Peyton Manning
:yes: He goes in the first round of my league every year but still hasn't been on the championship team.
All my leagues give 6 points for a TD (as I think it absolutely should) and Manning has been on the winning team 4 out of 5 years. In 2004 he carried "every" team to the championship.He is a no doubt 1st round pick for any 6 pt per td league, especially if a keeper/dyansty.
Even in a 14 team league ?
Yep. Two more picks in the 1st round. Using FBG's projections Manning's value would be at the 12 spot in a redraft. With keepers you could argue guys like barber and Owens drop from teh top 12 with guys like R. Brown and Caddy moving up, but having Manning for the next 5 years is more solid than any unknown RB and should be valuable longer than any RB
For fun I plugged this into the VBD excell application. Using 6 pts per TD, starters of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE: Manning should be pick #21 using FBG's projections. That'd be round about 2.7 in a 14 teamer. For a 12 teamer it would be pick #16 or 2.4. Not a huge reach at the end of the first, start of the 2nd as I thought it would be.
Not sure what you used, but I used the same thing and my league gives -3 for picks and -3 for fumbles and Manning was 12th value pick in a 14 team league. Not sure what the huge discrepency was but I don't share your conclusion. The only thing I can think of is 1 pt for every 20 yards for a QB puts Manning at #12 in 14 and the 9th overall pick in a 12 team league.
Likely picks and turnovers, I just used the default scoring for FBG's that came up in the spreadsheet. The only thing I changed was passing TD's to 6 pts.This makes me think I should start lobbying for more of my leagues to use 6 pts for passing TD's (particularily dynasty.) There's been a push to equalize RB/WR/TE in many leagues I am in but QB's are still just a dime a dozen in too many leagues.
I agree and am not sure why anyone would NOT want 6 TD's for QB's. Outside of what makes sense, I have always found that it makes sense to have the points make sense compared to the real game. FG's are worth 3 TD's are worth 6 XP's are worth 1 and safteies are worth 2.
 
I agree and am not sure why anyone would NOT want 6 TD's for QB's. Outside of what makes sense, I have always found that it makes sense to have the points make sense compared to the real game. FG's are worth 3 TD's are worth 6 XP's are worth 1 and safteies are worth 2.
teams get 12 points for TDs now? (6 for QB, 6 for WR)
 
My vote goes to Matt Hasselbeck. In 2004, he finished outside of the top 10 in passing yards, and finished 10th in passing TDs. Last year, he finished 10th in passing yards and 4th in TD's (tied with three others). How this guy is the 4th QB off the board I have no idea. Unless he's there for me in round 6, he won't be playing for my team this year. :banned:

 
Charles Woodson hands down.
That's a good one, but a few years too late I'd say.I was calling this one wayyyy back when they got killed in the SB and every time he got beat it was only because of an injury... the few times he made it to the field at all. He was a great CB in his first and second year in the league but for some reason it took a long time for people to realize how much he had regressed. Singing guys like this is why I'm still down on the Packers improving much this season despite making great moves to bolster their LB corp.

 
Larry Johnson.

People act like last year was the tip of the iceberg. I think last season will prove to be the best season of his entire career.

The way people are talking about him it sounds like they are going to be disappointed with 1500/15 and I doubt he gets that.
I agree 100%, which is no way knocking Johnson's talent level. He is a good football player but I just do not see it. At somepoint in the last few years the FF community has come to feel 20 plus touchdowns and near 2,000 rushing yard or 2,000 plus combined yard seasons are the norm, which is just not the case. Somewhere the exception became the rule. There is just no way Johnson can meet the expectations, opinion.
It's not like people are just pulling those numbers out of thin air with Johnson though. He had 1244 rushing yards and 14 TDs in half a season.
I've mentioned thisin other threads, but here goes again.people are acting like LJ did nothing prior to the second half of 2006. But in limited time in the FIRST half of 2006 he was certainly very good (but not getting the ball a ton). And his secondhalf of 2004 was almost as good as in 2005.

But the biggest think that people forget is that Priest Holmes put up similar numbers for several years--so it's not like Johnson's big numbers came out of nowhere and there's nor precident for it.

People get on Johnson for not being able to be productive for a full year, yet last year he ranked higher than LT FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON even though he spotted Tomlinson about 8 starts.
I for one have never gotten on Johnson for not being able to be productive for a full year. What's more I'm not even sure I've read anyone else making that point.I have doubts Johnson is "the next Jim Brown" in that he seems like a very good RB to me that landed in a HOF RB situation. As you pointed out, Priest Holmes put up similar numbers for several years in that system with that OL and the rest of the offense in its prime. If LJ's great season had taken place on team where all the key players were in their late 20's and the personel and coaching staff had remained unchanged I'd put a lot more stock into those #'s from last season. But that's simply not the case. IMO the current KC situation isn't the same one Priest was running in or even the one LJ played in last season. New HC. New OC. New RT(We're not even sure who it'll end up being). New FB. Everyone else.... ancient. That's the big one.

The guys that were "veterans" surrounding Holmes in his heyday a few years ago are now a little more than just "veterans". Ask al davis how long it takes to go from a veteran team contending for a superbowl to a team full of uderperforming geriatrics playing on the doormatt of the division. Even the biggest KC fans aren't pretending this nucleus is going to be able to hold on much longer..... they'll tell you the implosion due to age comes in '07 instead of '06. When I go down the ages of all the key players on that team I don't see why it's going to wait to happen until '06.

A very good RB in a very good RB situation(even if no longer a HOF RB situation) is still going to put up #'s. BELIEVE IT OR NOT 1500/15 IS A GREAT SEASON. The fact that so many look at those numbers and think it's a slight to LJ only reinforces how out of control the LJ hype machine has gotten. Only 2 guys in the NFL produced those gawdy #'s last season. Only one guy the year before that. And only one guy the year before that.

 
I hope he performs that well, but does under 100 yards per game and less than a TD per week make him the next Jim Brown?

Let's see him post 2,000 / 20 before we consider him among the best ever to play the game.

Also, let's see him perform at an elite level without one of the best lines ever.
He's going to destroy 1500/15. That sig proposition is just me laughing at him.LJ won't post 2000 yards every year, but he's money for probably the best season he'll have for his entire career this year. Never again will he play behind a better line and in a better situation than he is in 2006.

Guys explode all the time as backups and then go back to being garbage.

This guy was outgaining half the QBs in the league on a yardage per game basis.

181 ypg/1.9TD. No RB in NFL history even comes close to that over any 9 game stretch.

How can you guys call that the most overrated player in the NFL?

 
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Kellen Winslow , Jr.

scored just 1 td in his final at the 'U' ( Miami). has only played in 2 games since turning pro, and now that he's healthy, people are making him out to be another Jeremy Shockey or Todd Heap. please. lets see the kid get thru camp unscathed first.then, lets see him actually perform at a high level in the NFL..

he has just 5 receptions for 50 yards in 2 games to his credit as an NFL TE, yet people are putting ths kid in the top 10 in TE rankings.. :lmao: he didn't look good or didn't look like anything special when he started those games, in fact, he didn't look anything but ordinary in training camp in 2003.

he has to be one of the most overrated players to come down the turnpike in a long time..

 
Never again will he play behind a better line and in a better situation than he is in 2006.
I agree.But I have to ask you this question;

2005 OL > 2006 OL?????

And perhaps just as pertinent;

2005 KC Offense > 2006 KC Offense?????

Agree or disagree?

 
2005 OL > 2006 OL?????
No.
2005 KC Offense > 2006 KC Offense?????
Doesn't have a whole lot of relevance. Perhaps it isn't, but:Edwards' philosophy (relative to Johnson) > Vermeil's philosophyCurrent Chiefs' backups likely to take carries from Johnson > 2005 Priest Holmes16 starts > 9 starts, 7 non-starts
 
I've asked this question before and I'll ask it again.

If the KC O-line and/or system is so responsible for LJ's output why did Priest only run for 3.8 YPC in that same system while LJ ran for 5.2 YPC?

If you think the answer to this question is the fact that Priests age and injury history made him less of a back than he used to be I'd have to say even going back to 2003 he averaged almost a full yard less than LJ did last year running behind a younger and better Chief O-line.

 
I've asked this question before and I'll ask it again.

If the KC O-line and/or system is so responsible for LJ's output why did Priest only run for 3.8 YPC in that same system while LJ ran for 5.2 YPC?

If you think the answer to this question is the fact that Priests age and injury history made him less of a back than he used to be I'd have to say even going back to 2003 he averaged almost a full yard less than LJ did last year running behind a younger and better Chief O-line.
And then if you go back another year, you find that he averaged 5.2 YPC.
 
I've asked this question before and I'll ask it again.

If the KC O-line and/or system is so responsible for LJ's output why did Priest only run for 3.8 YPC in that same system while LJ ran for 5.2 YPC?

If you think the answer to this question is the fact that Priests age and injury history made him less of a back than he used to be I'd have to say even going back to 2003 he averaged almost a full yard less than LJ did last year running behind a younger and better Chief O-line.
And then if you go back another year, you find that he averaged 5.2 YPC.
OK, now we are back in 2002 and a considerably younger and better Chief O-line and offense. What about 2003,2004 and 2005?I still see no one who can answer the question but a lot of people who seem to think LJ's success was based on the system. The same system that saw Priest Holmes run for about a yard and half less per carry.

 
I've asked this question before and I'll ask it again.

If the KC O-line and/or system is so responsible for LJ's output why did Priest only run for 3.8 YPC in that same system while LJ ran for 5.2 YPC?

If you think the answer to this question is the fact that Priests age and injury history made him less of a back than he used to be I'd have to say even going back to 2003 he averaged almost a full yard less than LJ did last year running behind a younger and better Chief O-line.
And then if you go back another year, you find that he averaged 5.2 YPC.
OK, now we are back in 2002 and a considerably younger and better Chief O-line and offense. What about 2003,2004 and 2005?I still see no one who can answer the question but a lot of people who seem to think LJ's success was based on the system. The same system that saw Priest Holmes run for about a yard and half less per carry.
Priest turned 30 in 2003. If I'm not mistaken, he had injury issues in each of the following years (maybe even in 2003). You might have a point if he was 25 and healthy, but he wasn't.
 
I've asked this question before and I'll ask it again.

If the KC O-line and/or system is so responsible for LJ's output why did Priest only run for 3.8 YPC in that same system while LJ ran for 5.2 YPC? 

If you think the answer to this question is the fact that Priests age and injury history made him less of a back than he used to be I'd have to say even going back to 2003 he averaged almost a full yard less than LJ did last year running behind a younger and better Chief O-line.
And then if you go back another year, you find that he averaged 5.2 YPC.
OK, now we are back in 2002 and a considerably younger and better Chief O-line and offense. What about 2003,2004 and 2005?I still see no one who can answer the question but a lot of people who seem to think LJ's success was based on the system. The same system that saw Priest Holmes run for about a yard and half less per carry.
I don't get your point.2003 Holmes 4.4, LJ 4.2

2004 Holmes 4.6, LJ 4.8

2005 Holmes 3.8, LJ 5.2

So you are going to take 2005, which is Holmes worst year and the year after he missed half a season and now looks like his last season ever? If you look at 2003 and 2004, it sure looks like the "system" produces pretty similar numbers. Seeing as Priest's best season (#2 in KC) was 5.2 ypc and LJ's best season (#3 in KC) was 5.2 ypc, it sure seems to me like the "system" produces no matter who the RB is or that Holmes and LJ are pretty equivalent in their production.

 
I still see no one who can answer the question but a lot of people who seem to think LJ's success was based on the system. The same system that saw Priest Holmes run for about a yard and half less per carry.
This is the time where you need to look beyond just stats.Holmes admitted after '03 that he played all season with a leg injury.

In '04 he got hurt.

In '05 he got hurt again.

The system didn't do too well for Mike Cloud.

 
The system didn't do too well for Mike Cloud.
Too true.And people often cite the immortal Derrick Blaylock as someone who defined the "system" that puts out great backs.

His numbers were merely solid (156 carries, 723 yards, 4.6 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns in three seasons - 4 of which came in an inflated circumstance versus Atlanta), and his sample size is inconclusive.

Priest Holmes had a 1000-yard season as a Raven (with a better-than-4.5 yards per carry average), as well as two other 500+ yard seasons, and Larry Johnson is a first-round pick.

Sure, there is absolutely no question that the offensive line greatly helps the running backs in Kansas City. But, with that said, the production that we've seen from the aforementioned two players isn't coming from your average NFL back. A bum. A scrub. Not even close.

 
I've asked this question before and I'll ask it again.

If the KC O-line and/or system is so responsible for LJ's output why did Priest only run for 3.8 YPC in that same system while LJ ran for 5.2 YPC?

If you think the answer to this question is the fact that Priests age and injury history made him less of a back than he used to be I'd have to say even going back to 2003 he averaged almost a full yard less than LJ did last year running behind a younger and better Chief O-line.
And then if you go back another year, you find that he averaged 5.2 YPC.
OK, now we are back in 2002 and a considerably younger and better Chief O-line and offense. What about 2003,2004 and 2005?I still see no one who can answer the question but a lot of people who seem to think LJ's success was based on the system. The same system that saw Priest Holmes run for about a yard and half less per carry.
Priest turned 30 in 2003. If I'm not mistaken, he had injury issues in each of the following years (maybe even in 2003). You might have a point if he was 25 and healthy, but he wasn't.
And I knew someone would try to say it was due to Priest's age or history and I don't see any fact in that, just speculation.I don't know if you watched a lot of Chiefs games last year but I can say as an LJ owner I watched them all and they did not seem nearly as dominant to me as everyone seems to make them out to be. If someone can find this information please post it here but I'm willing to bet Larry Johnson led the NFL in rushing in yards after contact and that has little to do with his o-line.

At some point I think people are going to have just plain realize LJ is just that damn good. It's not as if he came out of no were either, he was after all a 2,000 yard runner in college who averaged 7.7 yards per carry that year. BTW-The year after he left Penn State the leading rusher on the team barely ran for over 400 yards and 4.4 yards a carry.

 
The system didn't do too well for Mike Cloud.
I think we may have made a breakthrough.We can both agree that;

Jim Brown > LJ > Mike Cloud

LJ's talent falls somewhere in that sliver of territory between Jim Brown and Mike Cloud.

 
The guys that were "veterans" surrounding Holmes in his heyday a few years ago are now a little more than just "veterans". Ask al davis how long it takes to go from a veteran team contending for a superbowl to a team full of uderperforming geriatrics playing on the doormatt of the division. Even the biggest KC fans aren't pretending this nucleus is going to be able to hold on much longer..... they'll tell you the implosion due to age comes in '07 instead of '06. When I go down the ages of all the key players on that team I don't see why it's going to wait to happen until '06.
It's going to happen in '07, because most of those guys are retiring after this season.
 
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The guys that were "veterans" surrounding Holmes in his heyday a few years ago are now a little more than just "veterans". Ask al davis how long it takes to go from a veteran team contending for a superbowl to a team full of uderperforming geriatrics playing on the doormatt of the division. Even the biggest KC fans aren't pretending this nucleus is going to be able to hold on much longer..... they'll tell you the implosion due to age comes in '07 instead of '06. When I go down the ages of all the key players on that team I don't see why it's going to wait to happen until '06.
It's going to happen in '07, because most of those guys are retiring after this season.
If they're retiring would it be way off basis to say the are getting old and might regress alittle. I don't think that is a reach by any means. I do still rank LJ #1 but to say he is the next coming of the best rb of all time is alittle premature in my opinion. Let's see how he does for a full season first and then let's see how he does without the best line in football and see how he does on his own.
 
LJ's talent falls somewhere in that sliver of territory between Jim Brown and Mike Cloud.
:lmao: my vote goes for willis mcgahee (slightly over kevin jones because kj doesn't go in the 1st round at least)
 
QB = Mike Vick followed by Tom Brady

RB = Deshawn Foster followed by Reggie Bush

WR = Santana Moss followed by Roy Williams

TE = Vernon Davis followed by Kellen Winslow

Bonus coverage:

Do you know who came back from a stroke to play football?

Can anyone name the QB that John Madden has wet dreams about?

Who gets misquoted in his own book?

Is there anybody who could tell me what city Jerome Bettis is from?

 
QB = Mike Vick followed by Tom Brady

RB = Deshawn Foster followed by Reggie Bush

WR = Santana Moss followed by Roy Williams

TE = Vernon Davis followed by Kellen Winslow

Bonus coverage:

Do you know who came back from a stroke to play football?

Can anyone name the QB that John Madden has wet dreams about?

Who gets misquoted in his own book?

Is there anybody who could tell me what city Jerome Bettis is from?
BruschiFavre

TO

Detroit

ding ding ding, what do I win

 
I'm not sure where all the Vick hate is coming from. IMO, he's probably the most overhyped player in the NFL, but not in FFL. I've been in several drafts this year, and Vick was not drafted in the Top 12 QB in any of them. How can a guy that is not even getting drafted as a fantasy starter be overrated?

 
I'm not sure where all the Vick hate is coming from. IMO, he's probably the most overhyped player in the NFL, but not in FFL. I've been in several drafts this year, and Vick was not drafted in the Top 12 QB in any of them. How can a guy that is not even getting drafted as a fantasy starter be overrated?
Good point David. Plus I think it's fair to say I think Vick is being underrated now days. He was only 18 points away from being a top 3 qb last year and he missed a game due to injury. Now, with Vick you always do have to outweigh the good and the bad he is definetly a guy that can get you 4 points one week and then 32 the next. He isn't for everyone's team. But for those few of you out there that have a very very stable team I think Vick is a great investment this year.
 
I'm not sure where all the Vick hate is coming from. IMO, he's probably the most overhyped player in the NFL, but not in FFL. I've been in several drafts this year, and Vick was not drafted in the Top 12 QB in any of them. How can a guy that is not even getting drafted as a fantasy starter be overrated?
ssssssshhhh!!!! Whispers...He finally has value this year. Let them think what they want!
 
I didn't read the other replies, but the only sensible answer is Michael Vick.
If you read the other replies you'd realize how unsensible an answer Michael Vick is.
Vick bashers are pretty amusing.I'd be willing to bet that Vick outperforms his ADP this year, as he did last year...

 
I'm not sure where all the Vick hate is coming from. IMO, he's probably the most overhyped player in the NFL, but not in FFL. I've been in several drafts this year, and Vick was not drafted in the Top 12 QB in any of them. How can a guy that is not even getting drafted as a fantasy starter be overrated?
:shrug: i've given up on it. you never hear any explanation as to why someone things he's overrated in the context of fantasy value. it seems to be a reflex action. they hear the word "overrated" and Vick pops out of their mouth. kind of sad really..

 
I'm not sure where all the Vick hate is coming from.  IMO, he's probably the most overhyped player in the NFL, but not in FFL.  I've been in several drafts this year, and Vick was not drafted in the Top 12 QB in any of them.  How can a guy that is not even getting drafted as a fantasy starter be overrated?
:shrug: i've given up on it. you never hear any explanation as to why someone things he's overrated in the context of fantasy value. it seems to be a reflex action. they hear the word "overrated" and Vick pops out of their mouth. kind of sad really..
It's actually gotten pretty funny. The big two reasons for "Vick = Overrated" seem to be inconsistency & the fact that he doesn't throw for 4,000 yards.I know I've posted the numbers at least twice in the last six months, others have also done so, & someone (SSOG?) did in this very thread; yet no matter how many times it's shown that Vick is no less consistent than "steady" faves like Green or Hasselbeck, it never seems to sink in. It's like people just ignore the evidence.....

It's also been shown over & over that Vick doesn't have to throw for as many yards as Manning; his running ability also gets him a ton of points. Yet those posts seem to be another blind spot. I wonder if the Vick haters can even see those posts, or if it's like when a poster is put on "ignore"...

Overhyped By ESPN does not equal Overrated in FF. Some seem to have a tough time making the distinction.

 
<Insert Dolphins Skill Position Player>
After 4 weeks of play, two against the worst two teams in the NFL, here's how they stand:QB Daunte Culpepper

ADP: #8 QB

Current Ranking: #22 QB

Net Value: -14

RB Ronnie Brown

ADP: #6 RB

Current Ranking: #10 RB

Net Value: -4

TE Randy McMichael

ADP: #8 TE

Current Ranking: #35 TE

Net Value: -27

WR Chris Chambers

ADP: #10 WR

Current Ranking: #29 WR

Net Value: -19

Give it some time and I'm sure the Stone will be on par with the rest of his scrub team.

 
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<Insert Dolphins Skill Position Player>
After 4 weeks of play, two against the worst two teams in the NFL, here's how they stand:QB Daunte Culpepper

ADP: #8 QB

Current Ranking: #22 QB

Net Value: -14

RB Ronnie Brown

ADP: #6 RB

Current Ranking: #10 RB

Net Value: -4

TE Randy McMichael

ADP: #8 TE

Current Ranking: #35 TE

Net Value: -27

WR Chris Chambers

ADP: #10 WR

Current Ranking: #29 WR

Net Value: -19

Give it some time and I'm sure the Stone will be on par with the rest of his scrub team.
not a fan of McMichael. Surprised Chambers is #29, I thought he was doing worse. I, like many, expected Daunte to struggle to get his feet under him but I thought a few bombs to Chambers would cover him stat wise for FF. His low catch percentage has been talked about here alot lately. Often times Daunte chucked it deep in Minny and the WRs would go get it. I don't get to see the Fins much but I'm not reading or hearing that Saban's giving him a WR that can do that. I don't think Welker or Booker are that type. I'd imagine that relaxes the O some and ...eh well what do I know
 

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