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The new WR market and how it will effect the NFL... (1 Viewer)

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
So with the deals Diggs, Adams, and Hill have signed, you are seeing Deebo, McLaurin, and AJ Brown now looking to cash in or hold out, so how does this shake out over time?  RBs have become devalued bc They are somewhat interchangeable but WRs seem to be true "specialists"; 

Now some teams obviously see this position as "plug and play" as Green Bay and KC figure their QB will elevate or dictate the WR success.  Also, New England has never seemed to value the position (outside of the slot or Randy Moss).  Will systems evolve and simplify to make wrs as superfluous as RBs or the fact that all these talented guys coming out of college the past few years create a real dichotomy at the position?  

Finally, how do we think this will affect Fantasy football?  (I'm not sure I will draft Davante or Hill but Waddle and Renfrow maybe values due to the "stars at the top")... 

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I think GB did try to pay Adams. I thought I heard they matched the LV offer. I do think with the gluttony of rookie WR talent coming in every class and how quickly those players can contribute, you might see teams using the draft to continuously add new WRs instead of investing so heavily in a single star WR.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
I'd argue that after QB, WR is the most important position in football, and that many NFL decision makers are/were stubbornly holding onto the idea that you build through the trenches so the money followed that way. Now teams are wising up and realizing that isn't really true anymore, and the money is starting to follow that way. 

As far as the plug and play idea at WR, Green Bay didn't want to do that, they wanted to keep Adams. NE and KC had/have HOF QBs and HCs, I don't think any teams can really be following that path, and expecting anywhere near the same outcome. I'd also argue it has mostly hurt NE in recent years, at least since Gronk/Edelman stopped being a high end combo. I'd be pretty nervous if I were a KC fan. Its very possible losing Hill (who I think is actually a bit overrated) is enough to knock them down to like 3rd in their division. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I think GB did try to pay Adams. I thought I heard they matched the LV offer. I do think with the gluttony of rookie WR talent coming in every class and how quickly those players can contribute, you might see teams using the draft to continuously add new WRs instead of investing so heavily in a single star WR.
Reports were they actually offered more than LV. 

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Star WR's will always find a justifiable market. They just may need to leave to get their pay day because it is a fiscal challenge to pay both a QB and WR, so the guy catching the ball needs to be on a team with a QB under a rookie contract. Where I anticipate a correction is the secondary WR market. Let's be real, lots of NFL teams are run poorly so bad contracts will still be given in small doses. I expect the good ones to pivot by identifying potential WR problems at least a year early and adding talent via the draft - the Steelers have been doing this for years. Sometimes you hit, sometimes you miss, and sometimes your WR on a rookie deal doesn't strike it being in free agency so you're able to bring him back at a rate that keeps you within budget. 

The next two classes represent sufficient depth for this dynamic to begin to take shape.

 

TVT 0 N S T A

Footballguy
I really think the position is being overvalued - granted, they make up a lot of the offense but look at the WR tiers.  There are more star receivers in the league than ever before... this all stems from the inability to put your hands on these guys.  I understand your production is reliant on the confines of the game, but the spread offenses and inability to hit WR's is going to turn this into Arena Football.  It is going to become increasingly difficult to keep a defense together too.  It is what it is, but I don't think WR's are any better than they were 10 years ago.

 

menobrown

Footballguy
Now some teams obviously see this position as "plug and play" as Green Bay and KC figure their QB will elevate or dictate the WR success
Previous two responses indicated GB wanted to pay Adams which is true and KC also made a good offer to Tyreek so it's not as if both teams wanted to go this route. Just got to a point where the money  paid vs trade compensation they could get instead led to the trade making more sense.

the fact that all these talented guys coming out of college the past few years create a real dichotomy at the position?  
That's the odd thing about the surge in WR pay.  All we've been hearing about in last few drafts is how deep the WR's, that WR's all over the place, but yet it's not seen as an easily replaceable position, at least for the elite players.

Perhaps WR pay has not really spiked, we just got more elite WR's hitting FA then we used to see. Julio's contract from a few years ago is about as good as any that was given out this off-season. Hopkins similar as well.

 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
I really think the position is being overvalued - granted, they make up a lot of the offense but look at the WR tiers.  There are more star receivers in the league than ever before... this all stems from the inability to put your hands on these guys.  I understand your production is reliant on the confines of the game, but the spread offenses and inability to hit WR's is going to turn this into Arena Football.  It is going to become increasingly difficult to keep a defense together too.  It is what it is, but I don't think WR's are any better than they were 10 years ago.


I agree here.  I think this turns into "a Michael Irvin" spot and then a bunch of guys.  You may be able to support one high priced guy and then some guys on rookie deals.

Miami is a decent example.  Hills contract basically comes up for restructure/release when Waddle would be due his second contract.  (Miami tried to do the same thing w the CB market but missed out on drafting a good corner)

 

TVT 0 N S T A

Footballguy
That's the odd thing about the surge in WR pay.  All we've been hearing about in last few drafts is how deep the WR's, that WR's all over the place, but yet it's not seen as an easily replaceable position, at least for the elite players.

Perhaps WR pay has not really spiked, we just got more elite WR's hitting FA then we used to see. Julio's contract from a few years ago is about as good as any that was given out this off-season. Hopkins similar as well.
I guess the tell all will be Jerry Jeudy.  It's the old adage, which came first the chicken or the egg - well a star WR is only as good as the guy throwing him the ball See: Beckham Jr., Odell

I agree here.  I think this turns into "a Michael Irvin" spot and then a bunch of guys.  You may be able to support one high priced guy and then some guys on rookie deals.

Miami is a decent example.  Hills contract basically comes up for restructure/release when Waddle would be due his second contract.  (Miami tried to do the same thing w the CB market but missed out on drafting a good corner)
Smart Teams will do exactly what KC and GB did and try to leverage aging assets and find the next new toy; which I think creates a volatile market for the WR's.  If you are constantly chasing the money, you will relegate yourself to poor/young QB's.  NFL teams with "franchise" QB's will just continue to chase WR's every couple years in the draft.  I really see more depth at the position than ever and I think those analytics are skewed by any WR with varying frames and stature being able to go over the middle and get off press coverage through motion being able to play the position.  

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I almost feel like the ideal affordable WR set-up would be: 

Stretch Z: DJ Chark or Van Jefferson who can use their speed and length to constantly threaten the defense vertically 

X: Corey Davis or Michael Pittman who can use their size to fight off press coverage, be physical with corners 

Slot: Renfrow/ Amon Ra quick feet, good routes to instantly make space for short-medium throws

Y: CJ Uzomah/ Foster Moreau big slot role who can use their size to create space for throws over the middle 

Gadget: Kalif Raymond/Rondale Moore for jet motion, swing passes, etc. 

With a good OC and QB, I feel like this kind of WR configuration could be very effective and provide a lot of options despite not having any highly paid or highly coveted players/prospects. 

 
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Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
I almost feel like the ideal affordable WR set-up would be: 

Stretch Z: DJ Chark or Van Jefferson who can use their speed and length to constantly threaten the defense vertically 

X: Corey Davis or Michael Pittman who can use their size to fight off press coverage, be physical with corners 

Slot: Renfrom/ Amon Ra quick feet, good routes to instantly make space for short-medium throws

Y: CJ Uzomah/ Foster Moreau big slot role who can use their size to create space for throws over the middle 

Gadget: Kalif Raymond/Rondale Moore for jet motion, swing passes, etc. 

With a good OC and QB, I feel like this kind of WR configuration could be very effective and provide a lot of options despite not having any highly paid or highly coveted players/prospects. 
Sounds like the Lions could use that X factor.

 

King of the Jungle

Footballguy
More WRs will go in the 1st round of the NFL draft due to the 5th year option. Scheme and QB remain more important IMO but these guys will still get paid. Top playmakers impact the game greatly. Good for the Chiefs for sticking to their financial boundaries with Hill…..not an easy decision. Until more do so the market will continue to ascend. It will be interesting to see how AJ, Deebo, DK, McClaurin resolve and it may have an impact on future handlings at the position. 

 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
More WRs will go in the 1st round of the NFL draft due to the 5th year option. Scheme and QB remain more important IMO but these guys will still get paid. Top playmakers impact the game greatly. Good for the Chiefs for sticking to their financial boundaries with Hill…..not an easy decision. Until more do so the market will continue to ascend. It will be interesting to see how AJ, Deebo, DK, McClaurin resolve and it may have an impact on future handlings at the position. 


no offense meant, but does the "5th year option" even matter at this point?  WRs who breakout start sandbagging for a new contract after year 3 and in some cases year two.  Having that 5th year option really only works for the "Marginal" ones or if you are planning on trading that player if he starts to be a pain in the rear w contract talk..

 

King of the Jungle

Footballguy
no offense meant, but does the "5th year option" even matter at this point?  WRs who breakout start sandbagging for a new contract after year 3 and in some cases year two.  Having that 5th year option really only works for the "Marginal" ones or if you are planning on trading that player if he starts to be a pain in the rear w contract talk..
Interesting. Do you have any examples of this as far as sandbagging in year 2 or 3?

 

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
Adam Levitan@adamlevitan

I talked to  @evansilva

and  @PFF_Mike

about the incoming WR class. We expect at least six to go in Round 1, but are any even as good as Jaylen Waddle/Devonta Smith?

>>> 📻 LINK to podcast

 

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
Adam Levitan@adamlevitan

I talked to  @evansilva

and  @PFF_Mike

about the incoming WR class. We expect at least six to go in Round 1, but are any even as good as Jaylen Waddle/Devonta Smith?

>>> 📻 LINK to podcast
LISTEN to the pod.

Great insight pertaining to this rookie WR class and why we saw all sorts of record 40 yard times this year.
Verrrrrrrrrry interesting discussion on the 'NEW' NFL 40 yard dash timer as the reason why we saw so-many ridiculously fast 40 times this year where the 'official' NFL Combine numbers were LOWER than Pro Day numbers.  

They changed the guy who had been the timer to a 'new guy' and they think he was generous/was slow with his starter watch so 'they believe' it is why so-many players had lower 40 times this year.

(my speculation) The 'inflated 40 numbers' could also explain why 'some' of the top prospects didn't run at their Pro Day workouts.

IF TRUE then this WR class is probably not as fast as many assume.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
So with the deals Diggs, Adams, and Hill have signed, you are seeing Deebo, McLaurin, and AJ Brown now looking to cash in or hold out, so how does this shake out over time?  RBs have become devalued bc They are somewhat interchangeable but WRs seem to be true "specialists"; 

Now some teams obviously see this position as "plug and play" as Green Bay and KC figure their QB will elevate or dictate the WR success.  Also, New England has never seemed to value the position (outside of the slot or Randy Moss).  Will systems evolve and simplify to make wrs as superfluous as RBs or the fact that all these talented guys coming out of college the past few years create a real dichotomy at the position?  

Finally, how do we think this will affect Fantasy football?  (I'm not sure I will draft Davante or Hill but Waddle and Renfrow maybe values due to the "stars at the top")... 
Greetings Gatorman, interesting topic, I'll approach it mostly from the pure money angle. 

-In an era of $40M+ starting QB salary, that's the going rate for a Top 20 QB in the NFL, Playoff wins are of little matter these days, purely driven on stats. 

-Not everyone has that on their roster but they all get the same amount of money to spend and therefore you see a lot of other Non-QB positions that get a little bit overblown and overpaid. I love my OL/DL on both sides but they tend to make too much money based on stats you can't really measure. Did the RB gain 1,200 yds because he has great vision and speed or did the OL blow holes open so wide you and I could truck thru them? But let's pay those players $15M+ a season because we gotta use all this money for Cap purposes. Teams are required to spend a certain amount of their $212M or whatever the cap is, you can't get away with only paying out $100M, some owner would try and do that if they could get away with it. 

-So the next flashy position up to bat is Wide Receivers. Many only catch 2-3-4 balls a game, that's 65-70 catches over a 17 game season, typically only 1 or maybe 2 WRs on a team keep pace to catch 80+ balls over a season. Compare that to a RB who has to touch the ball maybe 15-20x a game rush/rec and they might be lucky to make North of $5M a season right now, teams are not paying guys a lot of money at the position unless they are the focus of the Offense. 

I think some of it is due to the new pass happy era and teams not being committed to running the ball as much any more or having a true bell cow at the RB position. 

Until teams are loaded at the position to the point they don't need to overpay the Top20 at WR then things will continue in this direction. 

-Fantasy Football? My goal at WR in the last few years is to have a WR1 level or type in at least 2 of the starting WR slots. If that means going WR/WR on the 1/2 turn and then grabbing another strong WR1 upside guy on the 3/4 turn then I do so until I feel the drop off to many of the value types you are discussing in the later rounds but I'm not stepping over Adams so I can get to Renfroe later. Nothing against Hunter but Adams is going to see a lot of targets. 

To further the thought Gator, you don't want a bunch of guys starting at WR on your roster from later rounds because I would ask what did you burn the early round selections on, RB/TE/QB? If I am drafting in the middle of the 1st or later, WR/WR, RB/WR, TE/RB, WR/QB...that's just a rough sketch of 8 rounds and I could be talked into flipping a RB into the 1st and pushing a WR back another round or two. 

Thanks for putting this in motion, good discussion. 

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Adam Levitan@adamlevitan

I talked to  @evansilva

and  @PFF_Mike

about the incoming WR class. We expect at least six to go in Round 1, but are any even as good as Jaylen Waddle/Devonta Smith?

>>> 📻 LINK to podcast


LISTEN to the pod.

Great insight pertaining to this rookie WR class and why we saw all sorts of record 40 yard times this year.
Verrrrrrrrrry interesting discussion on the 'NEW' NFL 40 yard dash timer as the reason why we saw so-many ridiculously fast 40 times this year where the 'official' NFL Combine numbers were LOWER than Pro Day numbers.  

They changed the guy who had been the timer to a 'new guy' and they think he was generous/was slow with his starter watch so 'they believe' it is why so-many players had lower 40 times this year.

(my speculation) The 'inflated 40 numbers' could also explain why 'some' of the top prospects didn't run at their Pro Day workouts.

IF TRUE then this WR class is probably not as fast as many assume.
-Mildly shocked in this day and age they have "a guy" with a stop watch vs some electronic auto timer that starts immediately same time every time as soon as they lift up and take off and then auto stop the millisecond they reach the end. 

Human error involvement, just incredible. 

 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Interesting. Do you have any examples of this as far as sandbagging in year 2 or 3?
"sandbagging" is being used here to denote holding out of Voluntary workouts.  Deebo, F1, and AJB are doing that now (actually F1 isn't).  Doesn't matter how long your contract is anymore.  Guys are going to "want theirs" whenever they feel like they should get paid...

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
I don't know about first round picks but I would expect to just see a lot of WR's sliding up boards throughout the entire draft. 

One of the reasons I think KC was willing to part ways with Hill is he can be game planned to be less effective. In one of these threads I pointed out the KC offense was sputtering early in the season when they were forcing targets to Hill even though defenses were overplaying to stop Hill. In the playoffs and at the end of the season KC was back on track on offense when they were actually targeting Hill less often. I can't help but wonder if KC and their plan to replace Hill using a moneyball approach to receiving production will lead to more WRBC's across the NFL so you don't have to pay one guy $30mil/season. Of course you need to find a QB that can adjust and can find the best matchup quickly on the fly. But you'll be more able to afford that guy if you aren't paying a stud WR like a QB.

Upthread someone mentioned Julio and Hopkins making a lot of money in the past but I don't remember anyone making Tyreek Hill money. He's almost making QB money and that just doesn't make sense to me when there are so many talented WR's in the draft every year, and not just in the first round either. With a QB you can really only develop one at a time but with a 2nd/3rd round WR they can play a big role in the offense even as a rookie.

 

King of the Jungle

Footballguy
"sandbagging" is being used here to denote holding out of Voluntary workouts.  Deebo, F1, and AJB are doing that now (actually F1 isn't).  Doesn't matter how long your contract is anymore.  Guys are going to "want theirs" whenever they feel like they should get paid...
Got it, although I am not sure who F1 is. The contract length does matter as you are not allowed to renegotiate until after year three of your rookie deal. Until teams/players agree on another way this is all well within the rules. I get the players side as their next play could be their last. I also get how frustrating this is for a team who watches a promising player struggle with injury his first two years and then demand to be the highest paid non-QB after one healthy/super productive year. Tough game both sides are dealing with but all within the rules that were agreed upon by teams/players. Maybe something needs to give there. 

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
Until teams/players agree on another way this is all well within the rules.
Then it's never going to change because the people benefiting from the change(college players, high school players, pee wee players, the unborn) aren't in on the negotiations and don't have a vote on the contract they will be playing under when they enter the league. 

That's why I'm a little more lenient on rookie contract holdouts then most other negotiations. These rookies were "slotted" into a contract structure that they never had a voice in negotiating. In fact, the veterans have a benefit in negotiating rookie deals AGAINST rookies so there is a bigger piece of the pie left for veteran players.

That's why I'm also fine with vets losing jobs because they have to compete with under-compensated rookies. Those same vets did such a good job making sure they get a bigger piece that they now get no piece at all.

 

Obie Wan

Footballguy
-Mildly shocked in this day and age they have "a guy" with a stop watch vs some electronic auto timer that starts immediately same time every time as soon as they lift up and take off and then auto stop the millisecond they reach the end. 

Human error involvement, just incredible. 
sounds like another reason for players to push back on running the 40 

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
sounds like another reason for players to push back on running the 40 
Other than creating an event for "content" I'm not even what the purpose of the 40 is anymore. They get the telemetry data from the actual games.

"

Telemetry | NCAA

As of January 2020, Telemetry is teaming up with Sportlogiq to bring player tracking data, for the first time, to NCAA football. This partnership allows all 130 FBS programs to analyze the game just like they do in the NFL with Next Gen Stats. This customizable product will allow FBS coaches to game plan more efficiently and discover new opponent tendencies while integrating with their existing processes and tools.
Additionally for the NFL scout and front office, this NCAA player tracking data will increase scouting efficiency and provide a broader and more in-depth understanding of every FBS player.

"

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I'm reposting what I wrote about Deebo Samuel and his situation but it can be applied to not just WRs but almost any draft selection from 2019 that has outplayed his draft spot and wants an extension. 

-May 2nd is coming into focus and at the stroke of midnight all teams with draft selections from 2019 have a choice...

#1-Continue playing Deebo on his rookie deal knowing he has outplayed many others in this Draft class. 

I'd like to submit this page from PFR to highlight why some of these players from 2019 want to get PAID,  PFR-2019 Draft Class and if you click the column marked wAV as you read across under the Approx Value header, hit that button and you should see Murray listed first and Deebo is #5 overall in terms of value and what he has produced, it's very clear when you see this link I sent. 

-Should the Niners think they can just ask Deebo to play out his final year of a rookie contract with no 2nd contract negotiation ongoing with what he has done for SF on the field since they drafted him? 

#2-They can trade Deebo although he is still going to want his new team to give him a fat juicy extension, $25M+ a year or he likely won't be happy even in a new uniform. 

#3-They can offer him an extension. Maybe they don't have to make him the highest paid WR in the NFL but he's going to ask for it. 

#4-Added after: 2nd Rd pick, #36 overall, there's no 5th year option for SF. If he continued to produce at a high level this year they could simply slap the tag on him. 

Paparazzi Pizza reports about Deebo being a bad teammate or locker room presence and his very guarded "personal reasons"...give me a BREAK! Is he suffering from mental illness the way Calvin Ridley did it to Atlanta? I told everyone that Ridley situation was sticky and going to encourage others to cry out "Personal" or "mental Health" reasons why they need to be in another city but ultimately it's about the almighty $$$ and getting paid. 

Obviously his agent has gotten pushback from SF that they have no intentions of making Deebo feel special before that May 2nd deadline and they have opted to play hard ball or demand a trade, it's part of contract negotiations. 

I wouldn't read up on jock strap sniffer reports by writers fishing or allowing themselves to report dirty laundry for both the 49'ers AND Deebo, works both ways. 

 

jimmy b

Footballguy
Got it, although I am not sure who F1 is. The contract length does matter as you are not allowed to renegotiate until after year three of your rookie deal. Until teams/players agree on another way this is all well within the rules. I get the players side as their next play could be their last. I also get how frustrating this is for a team who watches a promising player struggle with injury his first two years and then demand to be the highest paid non-QB after one healthy/super productive year. Tough game both sides are dealing with but all within the rules that were agreed upon by teams/players. Maybe something needs to give there. 

I assume it’s Terry McLaurin.

 

titusbramble

Footballguy
They changed the guy who had been the timer to a 'new guy' and they think he was generous/was slow with his starter watch so 'they believe' it is why so-many players had lower 40 times this year.


A multi-billion dollar industry still uses a stopwatch, yet amateur sports have had fully automatic timing available (and required) for nearly half a century?

 

wgoldsph

Footballguy
Paparazzi Pizza reports about Deebo being a bad teammate or locker room presence and his very guarded "personal reasons"...give me a BREAK! Is he suffering from mental illness the way Calvin Ridley did it to Atlanta? I told everyone that Ridley situation was sticky and going to encourage others to cry out "Personal" or "mental Health" reasons why they need to be in another city but ultimately it's about the almighty $$$ and getting paid. 
Man, I like you in general but you need to leave everything mental health related alone because it just makes you come off like a bigger and bigger jackass every time you go into it.  There's absolutely nothing mental health or Calvin Ridley related here, and you bringing it up is in terrible taste.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
20+ years later and the shark pool never changes...
Sorry man, I was joking, I certainly didn't think anyone would be put off by my comment, but the truth is F1 is an objectively bad nickname.

For a nickname to have any value it has to be instantly and universally recognizable.  F1 is neither recognized nor universal.  It required context clues to make the assumption that because you mentioned Deebo & AJB that F1 was a member of the 2019 WR draft class. If that assumption is correct that leaves McLaurin, Dionte & Metcalf as the most realistic remaining options for who F1 may be. Metcalf's instagram handle is DKM14, McLaurin's is terry_25 & Johnson's is Juice18, no clues there. @King of the Jungle wasn't sure & didn't speculate, @jimmy b thought it was McLaurin, my guess would be Metcalf but, who knows?

Again, I wasn't trying to offend and apologies if I did.

 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Chaka said:
Sorry man, I was joking, I certainly didn't think anyone would be put off by my comment, but the truth is F1 is an objectively bad nickname.

For a nickname to have any value it has to be instantly and universally recognizable.  F1 is neither recognized nor universal.  It required context clues to make the assumption that because you mentioned Deebo & AJB that F1 was a member of the 2019 WR draft class. If that assumption is correct that leaves McLaurin, Dionte & Metcalf as the most realistic remaining options for who F1 may be. Metcalf's instagram handle is DKM14, McLaurin's is terry_25 & Johnson's is Juice18, no clues there. @King of the Jungle wasn't sure & didn't speculate, @jimmy b thought it was McLaurin, my guess would be Metcalf but, who knows?

Again, I wasn't trying to offend and apologies if I did.
wasn't offended at all.  Just tickled to be honest.  I didn't name him...

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
wgoldsph said:
Man, I like you in general but you need to leave everything mental health related alone because it just makes you come off like a bigger and bigger jackass every time you go into it.  There's absolutely nothing mental health or Calvin Ridley related here, and you bringing it up is in terrible taste.
He should really be more embarrassed.

 
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rockaction

Footballguy
Mclaurin.  The nickname has been here in the shark pool for 3 years or so...
If I hadn't spent nearly about three months of waking time in the SP over the past three years, I never would have known that. But I have spent that time, so it wasn't lost on me. Plus, I roster him in dynasty, so I know. But it's not a common nickname. Even Scary Terry is more identifiable. 

But props on getting the guy right. 

 

massraider

Footballguy
I think we are happening to see this because there is a glut of good young talent at the position. Also: The cap is about to increase dramatically, teams can afford 20 mill WRs. They can afford 40 mill QBs, and 15 mill Edge players. 

Maybe these WRs aren't worth the money, but when I watch the playoffs the last few years, I see teams relying on their stud WRs. It's a video game now, right? Rules favor the passing game, it's an arms race, I don't think skimping at WR is going to be my strategy.

 

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