The Next POTUS - Here are the odds, who is the best bet? (1 Viewer)

[lombardi]

Maybe Hillary and Jeb are the favorites right now but who wants to bet on the chalk? So who is the best bet? (Odds from http://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures )

Hillary Clinton -110
Jeb Bush +350
Marco Rubio +900
Scott Walker +900
Bernie Sanders +1200
Ben Carson +2500
Donald Trump +2500
Joe Biden +2500
Chris Christie +3300
Ted Cruz +4000
John Kasich +4000
Rand Paul +5000
Jim Webb +6600
Martin O'Malley +6600
Carly Fiorina +6600
Mike Huckabee +6600
Elizabeth Warren +10000
Rick Perry +10000
Bobby Jindal +10000
Michael Bloomberg +10000
Rick Santorum +10000
Paul Ryan +15000
Kirsten Gillibrand +15000
Lindsey Graham +15000

I think Rubio is a pretty good bet at +900 but for a long shot it might be worth taking a flyer on O'Malley at +6600 or Paul at +5000

 

[eoMMan]

Good odds on Graham, imo.

 

[Bucky86]

Were so ####ed

 

[lombardi]

Good odds on Graham, imo.

I thought about Graham but I just don't see him as a possibility getting through the Republican primary.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

 

[AAABatteries]

Is it too soon to wager on a Bush or Clinton victory in 2036?

Seriously though, as someone who hates politics, politicians and both political parties (but votes) it's unbelievably frustrating to think I'll have one of the two of them to vote for.

 

[shady inc]

Jeb Bush +350

 

[Eephus]

I think a flyer on Biden at +2500 has possibilities. Clinton is the prohibitive favorite for the nomination but at 67, there's a possibility for her to drop out for medical reasons. If that occurred, Biden would be the logical fallback option for the party. Any Democratic nominee would have around a 50% chance of winning the general election. It's a convoluted scenario but it has to be more likely than Trump willing a national election.

 

[Parrothead]

anyway you look at it you lose..

 

[General Malaise]

I'd take a little Sanders at 12-1. I don't think a Republican is going to win unless the country falls apart in the next 15 months. Sanders represents the biggest threat to Clinton, IMO. But I wouldn't put more than a sawbuck on him.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I like Biden at +2500. Obviously he's a big underdog, but not that big.

 

[Gary Coal Man]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

How is Rubio too conservative, but Walker is not?

How Conservative are GOP Candidates? (Graph)

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Understand the Biden comments, but his own party can't stand him. That isn't good for voter turnout.

 

[NCCommish]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

How is Rubio too conservative, but Walker is not?

How Conservative are GOP Candidates? (Graph)

It was my subjective assessment. I could be wrong. A

nd while I am a big fan of data science and what the 538 does, I am not sure this is something that is easily quantified.

 

[Bucky86]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.

Just like with Obamacare. You ask people who are against it about specific things in it and most of the time they'll say they like those things, but dislike Obamacare.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.

If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.

He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Understand the Biden comments, but his own party can't stand him. That isn't good for voter turnout.

Fair enough, but Eephus has a good point. What happens if Hillary has a heart attack, falls and can't get up, or gets splashed with holy water a couple of months from now? Biden is the person best positioned (IMO) to pick up the mantle, and he'd have at least a reasonable shot at winning a general election.

 

[Obie Wan]

Jeb is a lock

they only want you to think your vote counts

name the last Republican to be elected President without a Bush or Nixon on the ticket

 

[Trey]

Love Kasich at those odds.

 

[NCCommish]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.

If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.

He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.

Good thing he is running as a democrat then.

 

[Sinn Fein]

I like Biden at +2500. Obviously he's a big underdog, but not that big.

Best value on the board imo

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Understand the Biden comments, but his own party can't stand him. That isn't good for voter turnout.

Fair enough, but Eephus has a good point. What happens if Hillary has a heart attack, falls and can't get up, or gets splashed with holy water a couple of months from now? Biden is the person best positioned (IMO) to pick up the mantle, and he'd have at least a reasonable shot at winning a general election.

We get a really fun election.

Biden could certainly win because the GOP is stupid and self-destructive. Of course, so is Joe Biden.

Oh, and at the holy water thing. Awesome.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.

If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.

He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.

Good thing he is running as a democrat then.

Oh is he a Democrat again?

 

[NCCommish]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.

If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.

He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.

Good thing he is running as a democrat then.

Oh is he a Democrat again?

As you said the system is rigged

 

[lombardi]

If Hillary drops or is forced to drop out, for whatever reason, wouldn't the Democrats be desperate for someone other than Biden? I know he has lots of experience but the guy is like an opposition research fountain of plenty. I think the Republicans would have a hard time deciding which insane thing he has said or done to focus on first. And that's until he starts creeping on the ladies with his lack of understanding about personal space.

I think Hillary bombing out is very possible and that's why i thought O'Malley could be the dark horse. Don't forget, back in 1992 at this point in the process nobody even knew who Bill Clinton was. I see some similarities.

This is all discounting the possibility of Trump or Sanders losing and deciding to run as a 3rd party candidate (Trump more likely than Sanders). This would virtually guarantee victory for the other side (see Perot and Nader).

I still think Jeb and Hillary are just going to have too hard of a time getting actual votes. Even though Hillary seems to have already been coronated and Jeb has tons of the big Republican establishment money already locked up... who really wants to pull the lever on a Bush or Clinton again. No matter how much advertising and mud slinging go on I think it's going to be hard to overcome Bush/Clinton fatigue for either one as soon as real people are standing in the polls.

Rubio/Walker seem a lot more possible to me but I don't know who wins on the other side. I just can't see someone who labels themselves a socialist is going to win in this country, at least not yet.

 

[Cjw_55106]

I think a flyer on Biden at +2500 has possibilities. Clinton is the prohibitive favorite for the nomination but at 67, there's a possibility for her to drop out for medical reasons. If that occurred, Biden would be the logical fallback option for the party. Any Democratic nominee would have around a 50% chance of winning the general election. It's a convoluted scenario but it has to be more likely than Trump willing a national election.

You serious Clark? Biden is older than Hillary.

 

[Fennis]

Are their odds somewhere for the field vs Hillary?

 

[NCCommish]

I think you guys aren't aware of just how angry the electorate is. Poll after poll shows a rising anger towards the elites who run this country. Trump and Sanders,in different ways, are tapping that energy. This whole its Hillary and Jebs run to lose doesn't take that into account at all.

 

[lombardi]

Are their odds somewhere for the field vs Hillary?

I thought the same thing, just for the Democratic primary, but I couldn't find any.

I think that would be a great bet, depending on the odds.

 

[lombardi]

I think you guys aren't aware of just how angry the electorate is. Poll after poll shows a rising anger towards the elites who run this country. Trump and Sanders,in different ways, are tapping that energy. This whole its Hillary and Jebs run to lose doesn't take that into account at all.

I agree with this, and the anger is on both sides. That's why I think an outsider could make some real waves. I just don't see the American people going down the Bush/Clinton road again.

 

[General Malaise]

Are their odds somewhere for the field vs Hillary?

I thought the same thing, just for the Democratic primary, but I couldn't find any.

I think that would be a great bet, depending on the odds.

You can bet on what party will win....

Democrats -150

Republicans +140

Another Other Party (just light your money on fire) +50000000000

 

[lombardi]

I miss InTrade. How has someone not duplicated that, has someone and I just don't know about it?

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.

If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.

He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.

Good thing he is running as a democrat then.

Oh is he a Democrat again?

As you said the system is rigged

It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.

I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.

The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.

 

[General Malaise]

You can bet on the Republican nominee:

Jeb Bush Jr. +160
Scott Talker +400

Ricky Rubio +500

Trump +600

Johnny Carson +1000

Chris Cupcake +1200
Tom Cruz +1200

Randjob Paul +1500

Rick Scary +3000

Rick Sanitarium +3500

Carly FiredfromHP +4500

Bobby Jindlusional +5000

 

[Eephus]

If Hillary drops or is forced to drop out, for whatever reason, wouldn't the Democrats be desperate for someone other than Biden? I know he has lots of experience but the guy is like an opposition research fountain of plenty. I think the Republicans would have a hard time deciding which insane thing he has said or done to focus on first. And that's until he starts creeping on the ladies with his lack of understanding about personal space.

I think Hillary bombing out is very possible and that's why i thought O'Malley could be the dark horse. Don't forget, back in 1992 at this point in the process nobody even knew who Bill Clinton was. I see some similarities.

It would depend on the timing and circumstances of Clinton's hypothetical exit. The later it happens, the better it would be for Biden IMO because it gives other potential Democratic candidates less time to build an organization. Biden isn't a great candidate by any means but he's the obvious plan B and would presumably inherit much of Hillary's support if something happens.

 

[Eephus]

I think a flyer on Biden at +2500 has possibilities. Clinton is the prohibitive favorite for the nomination but at 67, there's a possibility for her to drop out for medical reasons. If that occurred, Biden would be the logical fallback option for the party. Any Democratic nominee would have around a 50% chance of winning the general election. It's a convoluted scenario but it has to be more likely than Trump willing a national election.

You serious Clark? Biden is older than Hillary.

Independent variables

 

[Brony]

I wish a robot would get elected president. That way, when he came to town, we could all take a shot at him and not feel too bad.

 

[Thunderlips]

I'd go Huckabee +6600. There's a lot of dead weight at better odds in front of him. He's far Right enough ( and social Conservative enough) that he could sneak a couple of early strong showings in the primaries.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

she is?

she's a lock for the Democrat nomination IMO, and will be a decent favorite in the general election.

-110 seems like a steal on her to me. I already started loading up.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

$10 each on everyone +10000 or higher, $80 down

$50 each on Trump and Biden at +2500, now up to $180.

$100 each on Walker at +900 and Sanders at +1200, $380 spent.

Good chance at at least doubling with a Walker win, or winning even more if Sanders, Trump, Biden, or the longshots take it.

better chance you are throwing away $640 when Hillary wins.

 

[NCCommish]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.

If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.

He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.

Good thing he is running as a democrat then.

Oh is he a Democrat again?

As you said the system is rigged

It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.

I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.

The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.

I have yet to find any of his postions scary.

 

[General Malaise]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

she is?

she's a lock for the Democrat nomination IMO, and will be a decent favorite in the general election.

-110 seems like a steal on her to me. I already started loading up.

Yeah, if the Democrats are -150 to win the presidency, then Hillary -110 is much better value.

I'm just not convinced she's going to win the nomination. She's not very...likable.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

she is?

she's a lock for the Democrat nomination IMO, and will be a decent favorite in the general election.

-110 seems like a steal on her to me. I already started loading up.

You know what, you're right.

That was a dumb statement by me.

I am not a regular money-line bettor, so I had to review the math. -110 is a 52% implied probability, right?

I agree with you.

 

[General Malaise]

I'd go Huckabee +6600. There's a lot of dead weight at better odds in front of him. He's far Right enough ( and social Conservative enough) that he could sneak a couple of early strong showings in the primaries.

I'll give you double that if you like.

 

[Fennis]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.

If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.

He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.

Good thing he is running as a democrat then.

Oh is he a Democrat again?

As you said the system is rigged

It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.

I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.

The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.

I have yet to find any of his postions scary.

I find his position on a 79 year old being president pretty scary.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.

I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.

So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?

Bush - sure

Rubio - doubt it, too conservative

Walker - maybe

Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist

Carson, Trump, Biden -

Christie - don't see it

Cruz - way too conservative

Kasich - no idea who this even is

Paul -

So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.

If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.

If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.

He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.

Good thing he is running as a democrat then.

Oh is he a Democrat again?

As you said the system is rigged

It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.

I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.

The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.

I have yet to find any of his postions scary.

That doesn't surprise me in the least.

 

[Sinn Fein]

$10 each on everyone +10000 or higher, $80 down

$50 each on Trump and Biden at +2500, now up to $180.

$100 each on Walker at +900 and Sanders at +1200, $380 spent.

Good chance at at least doubling with a Walker win, or winning even more if Sanders, Trump, Biden, or the longshots take it.

better chance you are throwing away $640 when Hillary wins.

0% chance Hillary wins the general election.

 

[Fennis]

$10 each on everyone +10000 or higher, $80 down

$50 each on Trump and Biden at +2500, now up to $180.

$100 each on Walker at +900 and Sanders at +1200, $380 spent.

Good chance at at least doubling with a Walker win, or winning even more if Sanders, Trump, Biden, or the longshots take it.

better chance you are throwing away $640 when Hillary wins.

0% chance Hillary wins the general election.

I'll bet $100 she wins, but you've got to be give me 100:1 odds. Sounds like easy money for you.

 

[Bucky86]

$10 each on everyone +10000 or higher, $80 down

$50 each on Trump and Biden at +2500, now up to $180.

$100 each on Walker at +900 and Sanders at +1200, $380 spent.

Good chance at at least doubling with a Walker win, or winning even more if Sanders, Trump, Biden, or the longshots take it.

better chance you are throwing away $640 when Hillary wins.

0% chance Hillary wins the general election.

I'll bet $100 she wins, but you've got to be give me 100:1 odds. Sounds like easy money for you.