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The Next POTUS - Here are the odds, who is the best bet? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter lombardi
- Start date
might be the wrongest thing anyone has ever said.
EDIT: but if you truly believe that, you should really bet your life savings against her. you could double your money.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
You know who you don't find in the wagering threads? The guys who bicker endlessly about politics here.
Bucky86
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
No fun betting on chalk. Christe, Cruz, Carson, Fiorina...they aren't winning no matter what. Trump's a dangerous clown who only hurts the socially liberal/fiscally conservative. Huckabee's the highest ranked social conservative on the board.....something that Santorum showed in 2012 can create waves. He'll run a traditional "Conservative Red Meat" platform. He's like the mid-major that has 5 starting seniors.
NCCommish
Footballguy
Seems healthy enough but yes I will be looking at his VP pick very closely of we get that far.I find his position on a 79 year old being president pretty scary.I have yet to find any of his postions scary.It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.As you said the system is riggedOh is he a Democrat again?Good thing he is running as a democrat then.If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.
I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.
So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?
Bush - sure
Rubio - doubt it, too conservative
Walker - maybe
Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist
Carson, Trump, Biden -
Christie - don't see it
Cruz - way too conservative
Kasich - no idea who this even is
Paul -
So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.
He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.
I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.
The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Smart money is on Steny Hoyer.
NCCommish
Footballguy
Yeah I support raising the minimum wage, making education spending less.by just paying for it. I believe we need trade deala that are fair to Americans not whatever mudhut country they intend to pay nothing. Ooh scary.That doesn't surprise me in the least.I have yet to find any of his postions scary.It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.As you said the system is riggedOh is he a Democrat again?Good thing he is running as a democrat then.If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.
I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.
So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?
Bush - sure
Rubio - doubt it, too conservative
Walker - maybe
Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist
Carson, Trump, Biden -
Christie - don't see it
Cruz - way too conservative
Kasich - no idea who this even is
Paul -
So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.
He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.
I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.
The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.
there's a lot of fun betting on chalk when you win money.
many people around here cleaned up betting Obama over Romney last election. polling data showed he was a much bigger favorite than the oddsmakers had him listed at. was literally free money with no risk. good times.
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Righetti
Footballguy
Since we have limited space, we'll leave it only for the ones who have a shot
4-1 odds Jeb. He looks just like Mike Francesa, sounds like a giant turd and has the same genetic makeup of the biggest screwup of a president but he's married to a Hispanic woman, seems to be sensible and not a total nutcase (compared to the other guys in the field). He has name recognition, was a governor of a big swing state, looks like the mind of dweeb who wears dockers on a Sunday but falls in that "the evil you know is better than the evil you don't" category for most
8-1 Scott Walker. Honestly he is winning this republican nomination thing and it won't be close but he can't be considered a favorite until he walks up to Jeb and gives him a wedgie, hopefully it of the atomic variety
14-1 Rubio. Might be higher if he can get a more clear consistent message and stops playing to the crazies
20-1. Christie. His chances are probably lower but he will destroy in the debates
30-1 the black guy. Ben Carson
35-1 Rand Paul. Sorry Zed but we're not ready for his type of truth and anybody who believes that 9/11 was an inside job probably shouldn't hold a top office positron
40-1 Ted Cruz. He is considered the intellectual voice of the TeaParty movement which is like saying you are the the skinniest guy at fat camp
There is no chance in hell he wins the nomination, zero. Still he is higher than the next few chumps
45-1 Huckabee. I swear to you that this guy has Hulk Hogan skeletons in his closet. (The bang your buddy's wife type not the hate on Virgil type)
55-1 Trump. He is 10-1 odds worse than Huckabee and Huckabee has NO shot. His fall from the top will be meteoric but entertaining all the way through
The rest of them: Bobby Jindal is a giant turd, Pataki is a douce, Fiorina would lose an election for 8th grade treasure yet she still continues to blow her fortune running, Kasich the average American hasn't heard of him, even the politically involved couldn't pull him out of a lineup and even his own wife wouldn't vote for him. Lindsay Graham, sorry dude but no. Rick Perry put on those glasses and hopes nobody recognizes him as the giant troll that he is. Rick Santorum has as much of a shot as he did four years ago, four years before that and four years before that and then there are a few other guys who I can't remember which is probably a good thing..or not
4-1 odds Jeb. He looks just like Mike Francesa, sounds like a giant turd and has the same genetic makeup of the biggest screwup of a president but he's married to a Hispanic woman, seems to be sensible and not a total nutcase (compared to the other guys in the field). He has name recognition, was a governor of a big swing state, looks like the mind of dweeb who wears dockers on a Sunday but falls in that "the evil you know is better than the evil you don't" category for most
8-1 Scott Walker. Honestly he is winning this republican nomination thing and it won't be close but he can't be considered a favorite until he walks up to Jeb and gives him a wedgie, hopefully it of the atomic variety
14-1 Rubio. Might be higher if he can get a more clear consistent message and stops playing to the crazies
20-1. Christie. His chances are probably lower but he will destroy in the debates
30-1 the black guy. Ben Carson
35-1 Rand Paul. Sorry Zed but we're not ready for his type of truth and anybody who believes that 9/11 was an inside job probably shouldn't hold a top office positron
40-1 Ted Cruz. He is considered the intellectual voice of the TeaParty movement which is like saying you are the the skinniest guy at fat camp
There is no chance in hell he wins the nomination, zero. Still he is higher than the next few chumps
45-1 Huckabee. I swear to you that this guy has Hulk Hogan skeletons in his closet. (The bang your buddy's wife type not the hate on Virgil type)
55-1 Trump. He is 10-1 odds worse than Huckabee and Huckabee has NO shot. His fall from the top will be meteoric but entertaining all the way through
The rest of them: Bobby Jindal is a giant turd, Pataki is a douce, Fiorina would lose an election for 8th grade treasure yet she still continues to blow her fortune running, Kasich the average American hasn't heard of him, even the politically involved couldn't pull him out of a lineup and even his own wife wouldn't vote for him. Lindsay Graham, sorry dude but no. Rick Perry put on those glasses and hopes nobody recognizes him as the giant troll that he is. Rick Santorum has as much of a shot as he did four years ago, four years before that and four years before that and then there are a few other guys who I can't remember which is probably a good thing..or not
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
Ok. I think Sanders is a populist dip#### and you think he is terrific. (I will say I admire his independence and ethics in terms of his campaign finances, I just don't like anything else.)Yeah I support raising the minimum wage, making education spending less.by just paying for it. I believe we need trade deala that are fair to Americans not whatever mudhut country they intend to pay nothing. Ooh scary.That doesn't surprise me in the least.I have yet to find any of his postions scary.It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.As you said the system is riggedOh is he a Democrat again?Good thing he is running as a democrat then.If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.
I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.
So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?
Bush - sure
Rubio - doubt it, too conservative
Walker - maybe
Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist
Carson, Trump, Biden -
Christie - don't see it
Cruz - way too conservative
Kasich - no idea who this even is
Paul -
So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.
He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.
I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.
The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.
We aren't going to agree and I have no problem with that.
Unlike many folks (and I'm not meaning to imply you are one of them) I have no problem having friendly interactions with people with whom I have sharp differences of opinion on things like politics or economics.
skol asylum
Footballguy
If something happened to Hillary, i think Gore could step in and clinch the nomination pretty easily. Would he beat the Republicans? I don't know but he did win the popular vote when he ran.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I like trends.
On 7/17/15 Hillary was running at...
http://politicaldispute.com/2015/07/17/betting-odds-to-win-2016-united-states-presidential-election-republican-candidate/
... which means that she is a lot closer to even now.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Considering he hasn't declared and his odds are the same as the republican currently atop the polls, I agree.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
That list looks like the 76ers of politics.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Henry Ford
Footballguy
I'd take Sanders at those odds.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
Not that I think it's a bad bet, but wasn't Hillary even more of a favorite 15 months out from '08?
Of course, there doesn't appear to be an Obama on the horizon this time (though, 15 months out from '08, I'd have bet anything that Americans would absolutely not elect a dude named Barack Obama).
lombardi
Footballguy
I really think Rubio or Walker have a shot. Main feeling on this board seems to be that Democrats are a shoe in and the odds show Hillary as the favorite (although i think that's because she is the clear cut leader in the primary and the Repubs have such a wide field).
What has happened since the last election, where the Dems got clocked, that makes anyone feel that the perception of the country is that it has turned the corner? Foreign policy is a train wreck right now, the economy may be in an official recovery but wages are down, hours are down, and nobody I know on the street is feeling much relief. Still tons of problems w/ Obamacare. I'm just not seeing what Obama has done since November to turn this tide around? Not to mention that the supreme court basically removed a huge wedge issue from the election when they legalized gay marriage, you can't run on equality now that we have that equality.
The one thing everyone seems to be banking on is the hispanic vote but I don't know about that. Obama is practically handing the Republicans Florida w. his Cuban policy and there is a really angry undercurrent right now on immigration that's ready to explode. It's exactly what Trump is tapping into. If it's making people listen to someone like Trump imagine when someone reasonable and electable starts parroting a more restrained and palatable version of what Trump is drawing people in with.
And let's not forget that there is a good chance the black vote is going to be abysmal in the next election. The community is angry, many people already don't like Hillary from the last primary, and the black community is pretty angry right now at the Dems. I don't think they're switching sides but I think they may stay home.
PP is really firing up the evangelical base (like me) who have been sidelines for a couple of elections.
This is no shoe in for the Dems.
What has happened since the last election, where the Dems got clocked, that makes anyone feel that the perception of the country is that it has turned the corner? Foreign policy is a train wreck right now, the economy may be in an official recovery but wages are down, hours are down, and nobody I know on the street is feeling much relief. Still tons of problems w/ Obamacare. I'm just not seeing what Obama has done since November to turn this tide around? Not to mention that the supreme court basically removed a huge wedge issue from the election when they legalized gay marriage, you can't run on equality now that we have that equality.
The one thing everyone seems to be banking on is the hispanic vote but I don't know about that. Obama is practically handing the Republicans Florida w. his Cuban policy and there is a really angry undercurrent right now on immigration that's ready to explode. It's exactly what Trump is tapping into. If it's making people listen to someone like Trump imagine when someone reasonable and electable starts parroting a more restrained and palatable version of what Trump is drawing people in with.
And let's not forget that there is a good chance the black vote is going to be abysmal in the next election. The community is angry, many people already don't like Hillary from the last primary, and the black community is pretty angry right now at the Dems. I don't think they're switching sides but I think they may stay home.
PP is really firing up the evangelical base (like me) who have been sidelines for a couple of elections.
This is no shoe in for the Dems.
G
General Tso
Guest
Biden is the best odds. Hillary could be derailed with all the scandals.
Bush is also good odds imo. But the odds are still stacked against any Republican. Democrats pretty much have 232 of the 270 electoral college votes needed. Republicans have 164, and 144 are up for grabs - key states being FL (29), OH (18), NC (15) and VA (13). Expect to see a ticket of Bush and Kasich, and a reasonably close election as a result.
Bush is also good odds imo. But the odds are still stacked against any Republican. Democrats pretty much have 232 of the 270 electoral college votes needed. Republicans have 164, and 144 are up for grabs - key states being FL (29), OH (18), NC (15) and VA (13). Expect to see a ticket of Bush and Kasich, and a reasonably close election as a result.
Eephus
Footballguy
I voted for Gore and think he would have been a fine President but his work on climate change since then brings a lot of baggage with it.
huh?
At Bovada right now:
Democratic nomination:
Clinton: -699
Sanders: +800
Biden: +800
O'Malley: +3300
Warren: +5000
Now you have to only bet $699 to win $100 but 2 weeks ago you had to bet $700 to win $100.
$1 savings!
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RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
Not to mention the fact that if Mitt Romney is evil incarnate because he made a lot of money in private equity, Gore is at least a minor demon.
Hilts
Footballguy
I was under the impression they haven't been on the sidelines lately. Hence the rise of the tea party.
saintsfan
Footballguy
I'm not sure that the people that think the Democrats have this wrapped up realize that the people that voted for Obama twice was something that historically really has never happened before. The mix of people that vote in these elections usually looks nothing like what happened in 2008 and 2012.
Now, it could be this is the start of a new era where young people come out and vote in overwhelming numbers for Democrats, but I'm not ready to assume that just yet. It could be the combination of a young, black, charismatic candidate like Obama got the vote out like we haven't seen before.
One thing for sure, Hillary doesn't have a 10th of the charisma of Obama or her husband for that matter. Her negatives are off the charts and, despite what anyone says, I think this is the best crop of Republican candidates we have seen in years. Trump is a nut, but he's not gonna get the nomination. Walker, Rubio, and yes Bush are good candidates. Bush has his brother hanging around his neck, but Jeb, to me, seems more well spoken and thoughtful and he has proven popular with Hispanics...
This reminds me of President Gore who had it wrapped up, supposedly, except he was a horrible campaigner and horrible speaker and horrible debater with no charisma...
Now, it could be this is the start of a new era where young people come out and vote in overwhelming numbers for Democrats, but I'm not ready to assume that just yet. It could be the combination of a young, black, charismatic candidate like Obama got the vote out like we haven't seen before.
One thing for sure, Hillary doesn't have a 10th of the charisma of Obama or her husband for that matter. Her negatives are off the charts and, despite what anyone says, I think this is the best crop of Republican candidates we have seen in years. Trump is a nut, but he's not gonna get the nomination. Walker, Rubio, and yes Bush are good candidates. Bush has his brother hanging around his neck, but Jeb, to me, seems more well spoken and thoughtful and he has proven popular with Hispanics...
This reminds me of President Gore who had it wrapped up, supposedly, except he was a horrible campaigner and horrible speaker and horrible debater with no charisma...
rockaction
Footballguy
Interesting.
Scandal is the only thing that brings Hillary down.
Wait for the email thing to ride out, and then bet her heavily. The electoral college falls well on the side of Democrats this time around, even per Republican pollsters. It's not even an issue thing; the votes in a stratified country don't seem to add up for R's.
Hope I'm wrong, but Hillary wins this going away.
Scandal is the only thing that brings Hillary down.
Wait for the email thing to ride out, and then bet her heavily. The electoral college falls well on the side of Democrats this time around, even per Republican pollsters. It's not even an issue thing; the votes in a stratified country don't seem to add up for R's.
Hope I'm wrong, but Hillary wins this going away.
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh, and
rockaction
Footballguy
ffldrew
Footballguy
In fairness to Gore - he did win the most votes - probably got the most in Florida as well.
Gary Coal Man
Footballguy
If you suggest that Gore lost because he has no charisma and Obama won, in part, because he has lots of charisma, then you obviously think charisma is an important (in not necessary) quality for a candidate. Why then do you give Donald Trump who is way ahead in all Republican candidate polls and easily the most charismatic GOP candidate no chance of winning that party's nomination?
NCCommish
Footballguy
No blood no foul. If I agree with something you post I'll say so. If I don't I'll say so. Isn't at all personal or serious business.Ok. I think Sanders is a populist dip#### and you think he is terrific. (I will say I admire his independence and ethics in terms of his campaign finances, I just don't like anything else.)Yeah I support raising the minimum wage, making education spending less.by just paying for it. I believe we need trade deala that are fair to Americans not whatever mudhut country they intend to pay nothing. Ooh scary.That doesn't surprise me in the least.I have yet to find any of his postions scary.It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.As you said the system is riggedOh is he a Democrat again?Good thing he is running as a democrat then.If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.
I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.
So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?
Bush - sure
Rubio - doubt it, too conservative
Walker - maybe
Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist
Carson, Trump, Biden -
Christie - don't see it
Cruz - way too conservative
Kasich - no idea who this even is
Paul -
So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.
He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.
I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.
The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.
We aren't going to agree and I have no problem with that.
Unlike many folks (and I'm not meaning to imply you are one of them) I have no problem having friendly interactions with people with whom I have sharp differences of opinion on things like politics or economics.
skol asylum
Footballguy
NCCommish
Footballguy
The reason the Democrats got killed in the last cycle was mostly gerrymandering. Senate looks better this cycle. It will be a while before we get the house back. The GOP isn't winning a national election right now. They couldn't beat Obama and his numbers sucked last cycle.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
They don't have to beat Obama this time. It's almost certainly going to be Hillary Clinton they have to beat. Obama as an incumbent, even with poor numbers, is still a much better candidate that Hillary Clinton. The majority of Americans aren't going to struggle to find reasons not to vote for her.NCCommish said:
I think Jeb makes a pretty good bet here.
NCCommish
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
General Malaise said:
There is an unwritten rule (or maybe someone said it) that when you discuss political bets in the FFAWT, that you do so in a non-partisan manner. I think as a whole we are all way up on political bets, in my case mostly because 538's numbers were truer than the books.I think the Republicans are facing an uphill battle, both demographically (country getting less white and younger) and ideologically (more people favoring gay marriage, embracing the ACA, etc.). I also think that, objectively speaking, the most recent Dem president was more successful than the most recent GOP president.
That said, Clinton's a dog of a candidate compared to Obama. The email thing could be a real issue, same with her health. The Dem machine could make a call to try and anoint someone new and try to push Hillary aside if they think she's going to be vulnerable, with Biden being the most likely candidate, the stuff about his son is pretty compelling stuff.
I'd probably take longshots on both Biden and Trump at 25-1. I think Trump's chances are more legitimate than people think, and he's going to have to tack pretty hard to the center and possibly walk back a lot of the #### he's said about Latinos, but I think he has the best chance of pulling away centrist voters from a Democrat. It seems bizarre and unthinkable that he could win the Presidency, but you could say the same about a black guy being President or Commando being the governor of CA.
NCCommish
Footballguy
Trump has so many negatives. He may win the nomination but no way he wins nationally. Even Bernie beats him head to head. So do Clinton and BidenGeneral Malaise said:
I think the Republicans are facing an uphill battle, both demographically (country getting less white and younger) and ideologically (more people favoring gay marriage, embracing the ACA, etc.). I also think that, objectively speaking, the most recent Dem president was more successful than the most recent GOP president.
That said, Clinton's a dog of a candidate compared to Obama. The email thing could be a real issue, same with her health. The Dem machine could make a call to try and anoint someone new and try to push Hillary aside if they think she's going to be vulnerable, with Biden being the most likely candidate, the stuff about his son is pretty compelling stuff.
I'd probably take longshots on both Biden and Trump at 25-1. I think Trump's chances are more legitimate than people think, and he's going to have to tack pretty hard to the center and possibly walk back a lot of the #### he's said about Latinos, but I think he has the best chance of pulling away centrist voters from a Democrat. It seems bizarre and unthinkable that he could win the Presidency, but you could say the same about a black guy being President or Commando being the governor of CA.
NCCommish
Footballguy
Wait until Walkers scandals hit the big stage, he is done. Oh and Democrats turn out for Presidential elections, its off years we suck.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Rubio is good value. I think his stock will rise once Trump implodes, and he's likable enough to win the GOP nomination and then win the general election.
I might have said that about Walker before, but I saw him on TV the other day and was surprised at how vanilla he sounded. He sounded like a guy who was scared of what is coming, not a guy ready to make a charge.
I might have said that about Walker before, but I saw him on TV the other day and was surprised at how vanilla he sounded. He sounded like a guy who was scared of what is coming, not a guy ready to make a charge.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
This is BS and you know it. He could pick Sarah Palin and you would vote for him (twice on Sunday too).NCCommish said:Seems healthy enough but yes I will be looking at his VP pick very closely of we get that far.Fennis said:I find his position on a 79 year old being president pretty scary.NCCommish said:I have yet to find any of his postions scary.RedmondLonghorn said:It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.NCCommish said:As you said the system is riggedRedmondLonghorn said:Oh is he a Democrat again?NCCommish said:Good thing he is running as a democrat then.RedmondLonghorn said:If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.NCCommish said:If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.RedmondLonghorn said:Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.
I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.
So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?
Bush - sure
Rubio - doubt it, too conservative
Walker - maybe
Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist
Carson, Trump, Biden -
Christie - don't see it
Cruz - way too conservative
Kasich - no idea who this even is
Paul -
So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.
He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.
I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.
The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.
NCCommish
Footballguy
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