Gary Coal Man
Footballguy
100% chance that the Democrat nominee wins the general election.0% chance Hillary wins the general election.
100% chance that the Democrat nominee wins the general election.0% chance Hillary wins the general election.
might be the wrongest thing anyone has ever said.0% chance Hillary wins the general election.better chance you are throwing away $640 when Hillary wins.$10 each on everyone +10000 or higher, $80 down
$50 each on Trump and Biden at +2500, now up to $180.
$100 each on Walker at +900 and Sanders at +1200, $380 spent.
Good chance at at least doubling with a Walker win, or winning even more if Sanders, Trump, Biden, or the longshots take it.
You know who you don't find in the wagering threads? The guys who bicker endlessly about politics here.You'd think FBGs would have a better understanding of how oddsmaking works
No fun betting on chalk. Christe, Cruz, Carson, Fiorina...they aren't winning no matter what. Trump's a dangerous clown who only hurts the socially liberal/fiscally conservative. Huckabee's the highest ranked social conservative on the board.....something that Santorum showed in 2012 can create waves. He'll run a traditional "Conservative Red Meat" platform. He's like the mid-major that has 5 starting seniors.I'll give you double that if you like.I'd go Huckabee +6600. There's a lot of dead weight at better odds in front of him. He's far Right enough ( and social Conservative enough) that he could sneak a couple of early strong showings in the primaries.
Seems healthy enough but yes I will be looking at his VP pick very closely of we get that far.I find his position on a 79 year old being president pretty scary.I have yet to find any of his postions scary.It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.As you said the system is riggedOh is he a Democrat again?Good thing he is running as a democrat then.If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.
I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.
So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?
Bush - sure
Rubio - doubt it, too conservative
Walker - maybe
Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist
Carson, Trump, Biden -
Christie - don't see it
Cruz - way too conservative
Kasich - no idea who this even is
Paul -
So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.
He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.
I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.
The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.
Yeah I support raising the minimum wage, making education spending less.by just paying for it. I believe we need trade deala that are fair to Americans not whatever mudhut country they intend to pay nothing. Ooh scary.That doesn't surprise me in the least.I have yet to find any of his postions scary.It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.As you said the system is riggedOh is he a Democrat again?Good thing he is running as a democrat then.If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.
I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.
So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?
Bush - sure
Rubio - doubt it, too conservative
Walker - maybe
Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist
Carson, Trump, Biden -
Christie - don't see it
Cruz - way too conservative
Kasich - no idea who this even is
Paul -
So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.
He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.
I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.
The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.
there's a lot of fun betting on chalk when you win money.No fun betting on chalk. Christe, Cruz, Carson, Fiorina...they aren't winning no matter what. Trump's a dangerous clown who only hurts the socially liberal/fiscally conservative. Huckabee's the highest ranked social conservative on the board.....something that Santorum showed in 2012 can create waves. He'll run a traditional "Conservative Red Meat" platform. He's like the mid-major that has 5 starting seniors.I'll give you double that if you like.I'd go Huckabee +6600. There's a lot of dead weight at better odds in front of him. He's far Right enough ( and social Conservative enough) that he could sneak a couple of early strong showings in the primaries.
I'll put up $100 to your $50.I'll bet $100 she wins, but you've got to be give me 100:1 odds. Sounds like easy money for you.0% chance Hillary wins the general election.better chance you are throwing away $640 when Hillary wins.$10 each on everyone +10000 or higher, $80 down
$50 each on Trump and Biden at +2500, now up to $180.
$100 each on Walker at +900 and Sanders at +1200, $380 spent.
Good chance at at least doubling with a Walker win, or winning even more if Sanders, Trump, Biden, or the longshots take it.
I see a great opportunity for some arbitrage here.100% chance that the Democrat nominee wins the general election.0% chance Hillary wins the general election.
Ok. I think Sanders is a populist dip#### and you think he is terrific. (I will say I admire his independence and ethics in terms of his campaign finances, I just don't like anything else.)Yeah I support raising the minimum wage, making education spending less.by just paying for it. I believe we need trade deala that are fair to Americans not whatever mudhut country they intend to pay nothing. Ooh scary.That doesn't surprise me in the least.I have yet to find any of his postions scary.It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.As you said the system is riggedOh is he a Democrat again?Good thing he is running as a democrat then.If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.
I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.
So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?
Bush - sure
Rubio - doubt it, too conservative
Walker - maybe
Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist
Carson, Trump, Biden -
Christie - don't see it
Cruz - way too conservative
Kasich - no idea who this even is
Paul -
So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.
He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.
I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.
The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.
I like trends.Maybe Hillary and Jeb are the favorites right now but who wants to bet on the chalk? So who is the best bet? (Odds from http://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures )
Hillary Clinton -110
...
http://politicaldispute.com/2015/07/17/betting-odds-to-win-2016-united-states-presidential-election-republican-candidate/Clinton sits atop the Democratic presidential nominee list at -700 odds at Bovada...
Considering he hasn't declared and his odds are the same as the republican currently atop the polls, I agree.I like Biden at +2500. Obviously he's a big underdog, but not that big.
I see that as a 50/50 thing.I see a great opportunity for some arbitrage here.100% chance that the Democrat nominee wins the general election.0% chance Hillary wins the general election.
Not that I think it's a bad bet, but wasn't Hillary even more of a favorite 15 months out from '08?she is?Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.
she's a lock for the Democrat nomination IMO, and will be a decent favorite in the general election.
-110 seems like a steal on her to me. I already started loading up.
I voted for Gore and think he would have been a fine President but his work on climate change since then brings a lot of baggage with it.If something happened to Hillary, i think Gore could step in and clinch the nomination pretty easily. Would he beat the Republicans? I don't know but he did win the popular vote when he ran.
huh?I like trends.Maybe Hillary and Jeb are the favorites right now but who wants to bet on the chalk? So who is the best bet? (Odds from http://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures )
Hillary Clinton -110
...
On 7/17/15 Hillary was running at...
http://politicaldispute.com/2015/07/17/betting-odds-to-win-2016-united-states-presidential-election-republican-candidate/Clinton sits atop the Democratic presidential nominee list at -700 odds at Bovada...
... which means that she is a lot closer to even now.
Not to mention the fact that if Mitt Romney is evil incarnate because he made a lot of money in private equity, Gore is at least a minor demon.I voted for Gore and think he would have been a fine President but his work on climate change since then brings a lot of baggage with it.If something happened to Hillary, i think Gore could step in and clinch the nomination pretty easily. Would he beat the Republicans? I don't know but he did win the popular vote when he ran.
I was under the impression they haven't been on the sidelines lately. Hence the rise of the tea party.PP is really firing up the evangelical base (like me) who have been sidelines for a couple of elections.
Oh, and at the holy water thing. Awesome.Fair enough, but Eephus has a good point. What happens if Hillary has a heart attack, falls and can't get up, or gets splashed with holy water a couple of months from now? Biden is the person best positioned (IMO) to pick up the mantle, and he'd have at least a reasonable shot at winning a general election.Understand the Biden comments, but his own party can't stand him. That isn't good for voter turnout.
One of the better comments in the past few months. Out of likes.You know who you don't find in the wagering threads? The guys who bicker endlessly about politics here.You'd think FBGs would have a better understanding of how oddsmaking works
In fairness to Gore - he did win the most votes - probably got the most in Florida as well.I'm not sure that the people that think the Democrats have this wrapped up realize that the people that voted for Obama twice was something that historically really has never happened before. The mix of people that vote in these elections usually looks nothing like what happened in 2008 and 2012.
Now, it could be this is the start of a new era where young people come out and vote in overwhelming numbers for Democrats, but I'm not ready to assume that just yet. It could be the combination of a young, black, charismatic candidate like Obama got the vote out like we haven't seen before.
One thing for sure, Hillary doesn't have a 10th of the charisma of Obama or her husband for that matter. Her negatives are off the charts and, despite what anyone says, I think this is the best crop of Republican candidates we have seen in years. Trump is a nut, but he's not gonna get the nomination. Walker, Rubio, and yes Bush are good candidates. Bush has his brother hanging around his neck, but Jeb, to me, seems more well spoken and thoughtful and he has proven popular with Hispanics...
This reminds me of President Gore who had it wrapped up, supposedly, except he was a horrible campaigner and horrible speaker and horrible debater with no charisma...
If you suggest that Gore lost because he has no charisma and Obama won, in part, because he has lots of charisma, then you obviously think charisma is an important (in not necessary) quality for a candidate. Why then do you give Donald Trump who is way ahead in all Republican candidate polls and easily the most charismatic GOP candidate no chance of winning that party's nomination?I'm not sure that the people that think the Democrats have this wrapped up realize that the people that voted for Obama twice was something that historically really has never happened before. The mix of people that vote in these elections usually looks nothing like what happened in 2008 and 2012.
Now, it could be this is the start of a new era where young people come out and vote in overwhelming numbers for Democrats, but I'm not ready to assume that just yet. It could be the combination of a young, black, charismatic candidate like Obama got the vote out like we haven't seen before.
One thing for sure, Hillary doesn't have a 10th of the charisma of Obama or her husband for that matter. Her negatives are off the charts and, despite what anyone says, I think this is the best crop of Republican candidates we have seen in years. Trump is a nut, but he's not gonna get the nomination. Walker, Rubio, and yes Bush are good candidates. Bush has his brother hanging around his neck, but Jeb, to me, seems more well spoken and thoughtful and he has proven popular with Hispanics...
This reminds me of President Gore who had it wrapped up, supposedly, except he was a horrible campaigner and horrible speaker and horrible debater with no charisma...
No blood no foul. If I agree with something you post I'll say so. If I don't I'll say so. Isn't at all personal or serious business.Ok. I think Sanders is a populist dip#### and you think he is terrific. (I will say I admire his independence and ethics in terms of his campaign finances, I just don't like anything else.)Yeah I support raising the minimum wage, making education spending less.by just paying for it. I believe we need trade deala that are fair to Americans not whatever mudhut country they intend to pay nothing. Ooh scary.That doesn't surprise me in the least.I have yet to find any of his postions scary.It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.As you said the system is riggedOh is he a Democrat again?Good thing he is running as a democrat then.If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.
I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.
So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?
Bush - sure
Rubio - doubt it, too conservative
Walker - maybe
Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist
Carson, Trump, Biden -
Christie - don't see it
Cruz - way too conservative
Kasich - no idea who this even is
Paul -
So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.
He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.
I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.
The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.
We aren't going to agree and I have no problem with that.
Unlike many folks (and I'm not meaning to imply you are one of them) I have no problem having friendly interactions with people with whom I have sharp differences of opinion on things like politics or economics.
Pol Pot?I really think Rubio or Walker have a shot. Main feeling on this board seems to be that Democrats are a shoe in and the odds show Hillary as the favorite (although i think that's because she is the clear cut leader in the primary and the Repubs have such a wide field).
What has happened since the last election, where the Dems got clocked, that makes anyone feel that the perception of the country is that it has turned the corner? Foreign policy is a train wreck right now, the economy may be in an official recovery but wages are down, hours are down, and nobody I know on the street is feeling much relief. Still tons of problems w/ Obamacare. I'm just not seeing what Obama has done since November to turn this tide around? Not to mention that the supreme court basically removed a huge wedge issue from the election when they legalized gay marriage, you can't run on equality now that we have that equality.
The one thing everyone seems to be banking on is the hispanic vote but I don't know about that. Obama is practically handing the Republicans Florida w. his Cuban policy and there is a really angry undercurrent right now on immigration that's ready to explode. It's exactly what Trump is tapping into. If it's making people listen to someone like Trump imagine when someone reasonable and electable starts parroting a more restrained and palatable version of what Trump is drawing people in with.
And let's not forget that there is a good chance the black vote is going to be abysmal in the next election. The community is angry, many people already don't like Hillary from the last primary, and the black community is pretty angry right now at the Dems. I don't think they're switching sides but I think they may stay home.
PP is really firing up the evangelical base (like me) who have been sidelines for a couple of elections.
This is no shoe in for the Dems.
They don't have to beat Obama this time. It's almost certainly going to be Hillary Clinton they have to beat. Obama as an incumbent, even with poor numbers, is still a much better candidate that Hillary Clinton. The majority of Americans aren't going to struggle to find reasons not to vote for her.NCCommish said:The reason the Democrats got killed in the last cycle was mostly gerrymandering. Senate looks better this cycle. It will be a while before we get the house back. The GOP isn't winning a national election right now. They couldn't beat Obama and his numbers sucked last cycle.
You mean Jeb who just called for dismantling Medicare? I wouldn't bet on it.They don't have to beat Obama this time. It's almost certainly going to be Hillary Clinton they have to beat. Obama as an incumbent, even with poor numbers, is still a much better candidate that Hillary Clinton. The majority of Americans aren't going to struggle to find reasons not to vote for her.NCCommish said:The reason the Democrats got killed in the last cycle was mostly gerrymandering. Senate looks better this cycle. It will be a while before we get the house back. The GOP isn't winning a national election right now. They couldn't beat Obama and his numbers sucked last cycle.
I think Jeb makes a pretty good bet here.
There is an unwritten rule (or maybe someone said it) that when you discuss political bets in the FFAWT, that you do so in a non-partisan manner. I think as a whole we are all way up on political bets, in my case mostly because 538's numbers were truer than the books.General Malaise said:You know who you don't find in the wagering threads? The guys who bicker endlessly about politics here.Eephus said:You'd think FBGs would have a better understanding of how oddsmaking works
Trump has so many negatives. He may win the nomination but no way he wins nationally. Even Bernie beats him head to head. So do Clinton and BidenThere is an unwritten rule (or maybe someone said it) that when you discuss political bets in the FFAWT, that you do so in a non-partisan manner. I think as a whole we are all way up on political bets, in my case mostly because 538's numbers were truer than the books.General Malaise said:You know who you don't find in the wagering threads? The guys who bicker endlessly about politics here.Eephus said:You'd think FBGs would have a better understanding of how oddsmaking works
I think the Republicans are facing an uphill battle, both demographically (country getting less white and younger) and ideologically (more people favoring gay marriage, embracing the ACA, etc.). I also think that, objectively speaking, the most recent Dem president was more successful than the most recent GOP president.
That said, Clinton's a dog of a candidate compared to Obama. The email thing could be a real issue, same with her health. The Dem machine could make a call to try and anoint someone new and try to push Hillary aside if they think she's going to be vulnerable, with Biden being the most likely candidate, the stuff about his son is pretty compelling stuff.
I'd probably take longshots on both Biden and Trump at 25-1. I think Trump's chances are more legitimate than people think, and he's going to have to tack pretty hard to the center and possibly walk back a lot of the #### he's said about Latinos, but I think he has the best chance of pulling away centrist voters from a Democrat. It seems bizarre and unthinkable that he could win the Presidency, but you could say the same about a black guy being President or Commando being the governor of CA.
Wait until Walkers scandals hit the big stage, he is done. Oh and Democrats turn out for Presidential elections, its off years we suck.In that list the best flier is Walker, IMO. I think he ends up the nominee for the GOP. The election will come down to turnout and there the Republicans may just have a shot if they can get people to come out.
In for a hundred.Fennis said:I'll bet $100 she wins, but you've got to be give me 100:1 odds. Sounds like easy money for you.Sinn Fein said:0% chance Hillary wins the general election.Aaron Rudnicki said:better chance you are throwing away $640 when Hillary wins.Walking Boot said:$10 each on everyone +10000 or higher, $80 down
$50 each on Trump and Biden at +2500, now up to $180.
$100 each on Walker at +900 and Sanders at +1200, $380 spent.
Good chance at at least doubling with a Walker win, or winning even more if Sanders, Trump, Biden, or the longshots take it.
at 100:1 odds?In for a hundred.Fennis said:I'll bet $100 she wins, but you've got to be give me 100:1 odds. Sounds like easy money for you.Sinn Fein said:0% chance Hillary wins the general election.Aaron Rudnicki said:better chance you are throwing away $640 when Hillary wins.Walking Boot said:$10 each on everyone +10000 or higher, $80 down
$50 each on Trump and Biden at +2500, now up to $180.
$100 each on Walker at +900 and Sanders at +1200, $380 spent.
Good chance at at least doubling with a Walker win, or winning even more if Sanders, Trump, Biden, or the longshots take it.
This is BS and you know it. He could pick Sarah Palin and you would vote for him (twice on Sunday too).NCCommish said:Seems healthy enough but yes I will be looking at his VP pick very closely of we get that far.Fennis said:I find his position on a 79 year old being president pretty scary.NCCommish said:I have yet to find any of his postions scary.RedmondLonghorn said:It is rigged against Indpendents for sure.NCCommish said:As you said the system is riggedRedmondLonghorn said:Oh is he a Democrat again?NCCommish said:Good thing he is running as a democrat then.RedmondLonghorn said:If that is true, then we are truly totally ####ed as country.NCCommish said:If Bernie is way too socialist then America is. His positions poll with majority support.RedmondLonghorn said:Clinton is a terrible value, obviously.
I think anybody on the bottom half of the list is probably just throwing money away.
So who on the top half of the list other than Hillary has any shot at all at actually winning?
Bush - sure
Rubio - doubt it, too conservative
Walker - maybe
Sanders - doubt it, way too socialist
Carson, Trump, Biden -
Christie - don't see it
Cruz - way too conservative
Kasich - no idea who this even is
Paul -
So that leaves me with Jeb and Walker as "value" picks. But I don't really believe either of them are going to win.
He won't win in any event, because an indpendent can't. The system is too rigged against them.
I wasn't aware that Bernie was running as a Democrat. I don't follow politics super closely.
The fact his positions poll well is frightening, but then again, he is a populist.
You know me better than that.This is BS and you know it. He could pick Sarah Palin and you would vote for him (twice on Sunday too).