![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
The OFFICIAL 2007 Boston Red Sox Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter [icon]
- Start date
[icon]
Insoxicated
Agreed.. though detroit is firing on all cylinders offensively and Boston is mired in a big slump. Ortiz and manny aren't hitting.. youk was out hurt....etc. 2 of the 3 games were very close... Dice was just Off today.. couldn't locate anything. Even the best guys have those sorts of outings. Not worried at all.
That said.. the offense needs to get it in gear... we'll need a strong 2nd half by manny/ortiz/youk to hold serve here as Sox can expect at least one short term DL stint by one of the starters before the end of the year as well.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
when is schilling's return scheduled? anyone know? & speaking of pitching, is lester scheduled to come up after the break?
Nigel
Footballguy
No sooner than Aug. 1 for Schilling, my guess is middle of the month. I haven't heard anything about lester coming up.
Alias
Footballguy
Good chance I will be hitting the game Tuesday night in Fenway. Have not been in a few years - I remember reading they have a section setup so that those that are selling and buying can lineup and get a clean transaction at face value - do they still do this?
Who does it look like will be pitching on Tuesday?
So far it has been:
7/5 Beckett
7/6 Tavarez
7/7 Gabbard
7/8 DiceK
7/9 Off
7/10 Off
7/11 Off
7/12 Wake
7/13 Tavarez
7/14 DiceK
7/15 Beckett
7/16 Gabbard
7/17 ?? Wake ??
Who does it look like will be pitching on Tuesday?
So far it has been:
7/5 Beckett
7/6 Tavarez
7/7 Gabbard
7/8 DiceK
7/9 Off
7/10 Off
7/11 Off
7/12 Wake
7/13 Tavarez
7/14 DiceK
7/15 Beckett
7/16 Gabbard
7/17 ?? Wake ??
Last edited by a moderator:
wilked
Footballguy
Wake kicks Halladay's ###, 3 in a row for the old guy and 5 out of 6.
Sox maintain Baseball's Best Record
Was up in the Budweiser seats for the game, was great to see Manny and Ortiz become unglued, and to see Lugo swigning the bat with some authority
Sox maintain Baseball's Best Record
Was up in the Budweiser seats for the game, was great to see Manny and Ortiz become unglued, and to see Lugo swigning the bat with some authority
Last edited by a moderator:
wilked
Footballguy
Just got this in the mail yesterday, now just need to get it framed...
http://img352.imageshack.us/img352/2194/p6100002it8.jpg
http://img352.imageshack.us/img352/2194/p6100002it8.jpg
the moops
Footballguy
I like that. Where did you get it from?
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
nice looking game from gabbard. when schill comes back, slide julian into the pen & i like the look of the staff A LOT.
beckett
dice k
schill
wake
gabbard
beckett
dice k
schill
wake
gabbard
Steelnation
Footballguy
8 games
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
Someone do me a favor and change that best record thing. Detroit is .002 better than the Red Sox.
ThisGuy
Ignored by Nipsey
Easy, guys. I don't think Boston can UnClinch the Division since they won it back in May.
Last edited by a moderator:
What does the Sox contingent here think about the Tavarez situation? It's pretty much all the rage over at SOSH and Sox Prospects.
My stance is to either stay put for 2 more Tavarez starts or call up Hansack (NOT LESTER). I think Pineiro's time here might be coming to a close.
My stance is to either stay put for 2 more Tavarez starts or call up Hansack (NOT LESTER). I think Pineiro's time here might be coming to a close.
ThisGuy
Ignored by Nipsey
A few guys in here might still think he's better than Clemens.
[icon]
Insoxicated
Offense is an issue. Ortiz is hurt. Manny looks lost. Lowell is cooling in the second half as usual. Youk is struggling through a cold snap as well. Pitching has been great except Tavarez. We need Schilling to come back and at LEAST pitch like a #2 or #3...... Tavarez needs to go to the pen and we can keep Gabbard up for the time being. Interested to see what Boston does as the deadline approaches.
shadyridr
Footballguy
For all the crap you people gave Darth Cheaney it sounds like he predicted just about all of these things to happen.
Steelnation
Footballguy
[icon]
Insoxicated
Honestly, who couldn't predict Tavarez reverting to the norm or Lowell having a slow-ish 2nd half? That said.... some numbers from another source: * Since an awful start in April, Manny Ramirez has been consistently great with a .970 OPS in May, .938 in June, and .931 thus far in July. He has definitely lost a little bit, and this may turn out to be the worst year of his career, but his bat still puts fear in pitchers’ hearts, and Manny is good enough to continue being one of the best hitters in baseball even with a somewhat slower bat. * Since June 1, Coco Crisp has hit .315 with an .843 OPS. If you really want to make his numbers look good, start on June 16, as Crisp has posted a 1.063 OPS in the past month. Crisp’s resurgent bat augments the fabulous season he is having in the field, and makes him a valuable asset to the Red Sox while Jacoby Ellsbury matures into a future star. * J.D. Drew has hit .306/.400/.495 since June 1, which is exactly what was expected of him when he signed with the Red Sox. In fact, the THT projection for Drew was actually a bit more pessimistic at .282/.386/.480. Even if he does lose a little batting average, Drew really looks like he has turned a corner, and the Red Sox should expect to get what they paid for over the next two-and-a-half-months. * Surprisingly, David Ortiz has not lost any of his value despite playing on a torn meniscus. His OPS through June 1 was 1.010; since, it’s 1.019. As long as the meniscus doesn’t bother him any more as the season wears on, there’s nothing to worry about with Big Papi.• Mike Lowell hit very poorly in June, but has been stellar in July. His OPS approached 1.000 at one point, but that is just too much to expect. Above-average offense, however, isn’t, and Lowell will continue to be one of the better third basemen in the American League.• Then, of course, there is the much maligned Julio Lugo, whose spectacular .309 OPS in June would have tied him for 62nd in the major leagues that month in batting average. Lugo’s .089 batting average, of course, ranked last, making him the only player who couldn’t even hit triple digits. Overall, Lugo has been awful this season, but he’s actually put together a nifty little July, hitting .359 with an .894 OPS.
[icon]
Insoxicated
Few more interesting tidbits from various sources.... take em for what they're worth:
They have scored 181 runs since June 1, but created 204. In other words, they should have been scoring about 5.10 runs per game over that stretch, more than half-a-run above their actual total. Compounding that, the Red Sox underperformed their Pythagorean record by a couple of games as well.
The Red Sox currently have the 3rd highest OPS in all of baseball at .798. Despite this, they are barely above average in runs scored in the American League, actually scoring just under 5 runs a game. A simple team linear weights calculation (explained here), shows this team has underperformed their predicted runs scored for the season by 45 runs. Should they continue to hit the way they have we should expect the team to score about 5.5 runs per game, the half run increase Gassko noted. With the Red Sox also having the 2nd best team ERA in the American League the team should be in very good shape going forward.
They have scored 181 runs since June 1, but created 204. In other words, they should have been scoring about 5.10 runs per game over that stretch, more than half-a-run above their actual total. Compounding that, the Red Sox underperformed their Pythagorean record by a couple of games as well.
The Red Sox currently have the 3rd highest OPS in all of baseball at .798. Despite this, they are barely above average in runs scored in the American League, actually scoring just under 5 runs a game. A simple team linear weights calculation (explained here), shows this team has underperformed their predicted runs scored for the season by 45 runs. Should they continue to hit the way they have we should expect the team to score about 5.5 runs per game, the half run increase Gassko noted. With the Red Sox also having the 2nd best team ERA in the American League the team should be in very good shape going forward.
Alias
Footballguy
I think what people are trying to say is the hitting is there - so there is no reason to panic, they have hit some bad luck in not getting the right combinations to drive in runs. The pitching for the past two games was the bottom of the rotation - Wakefield has always been hit or miss with his starts and Tavarez is regressing to the mean.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
i'm not complaining about the record. it's just that we scored 2 or less runs 11 times! in june & we're 11-13 so far in the month.if we win the next 2 games against texas we'll be at .500 for the month.
can i worry about the offense yet?i'm not complaining about the record. it's just that we scored 2 or less runs 11 times! in june & we're 11-13 so far in the month.if we win the next 2 games against texas we'll be at .500 for the month.
i'm officially worried about the ####### offense. this better just be a 31 day long funk.do you think the sox might be in the market for an outfielder that can hit for average?
ThisGuy
Ignored by Nipsey
There HAS to be a SNORK rating or 2 that [icon] can throw your way that should ease your worries.i'm not complaining about the record. it's just that we scored 2 or less runs 11 times! in june & we're 11-13 so far in the month.can i worry about the offense yet?i'm not complaining about the record. it's just that we scored 2 or less runs 11 times! in june & we're 11-13 so far in the month.i'm officially worried about the ####### offense. this better just be a 31 day long funk.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
What's that tell you about the teams clutchibility? My point with this Sox team is that they don't have any heart. The 2004 team had attitude that IMO outpaced their actual ability. I don't see that with this team. Drew, Lowell, Crisp, Lugo.......these guys aren't warriors. It's almost like the Sox have become a poor man's Yankee team. Where the Yanks would go get " square superstars" and pound them into round holes the Sox are married to this Jamesian numbers stuff.Yeah getting 11 hits in 1 game is really really mediocre- they were 1 for 7 with RISP
Workhorse
Footballguy
Really interesting breakdown over at SOSH on .600 or better teams going through prolonged stretches of mediocrity.
Teams with similar winning percentages at the end of the season tend to go through stretches of between 40-75 games where they play .500 ball. Even the 1998 juggernaut Yankees (who finished the season with a winning percentage above .700) had a 40 game stretch where they went 20-20 (August 14 - September 21).
All the peripheral stats suggest that this is just a temporary funk for the Red Sox. Nice to have a 7 game lead during the doldrums.
Teams with similar winning percentages at the end of the season tend to go through stretches of between 40-75 games where they play .500 ball. Even the 1998 juggernaut Yankees (who finished the season with a winning percentage above .700) had a 40 game stretch where they went 20-20 (August 14 - September 21).
All the peripheral stats suggest that this is just a temporary funk for the Red Sox. Nice to have a 7 game lead during the doldrums.
Workhorse
Footballguy
"This Jamesian numbers stuff"...What's that tell you about the teams clutchibility? My point with this Sox team is that they don't have any heart. The 2004 team had attitude that IMO outpaced their actual ability. I don't see that with this team. Drew, Lowell, Crisp, Lugo.......these guys aren't warriors. It's almost like the Sox have become a poor man's Yankee team. Where the Yanks would go get " square superstars" and pound them into round holes the Sox are married to this Jamesian numbers stuff.Yeah getting 11 hits in 1 game is really really mediocre- they were 1 for 7 with RISP
Repeat after me: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS CLUTCHIBILITY.There are good hitters and bad hitters. Productive players and not productive players. The 2004 team didn't win because it had "warriors". It won because they were the best hitting team in the league (#1 in OBP and Slugging in all of baseball) and were THIRD in team ERA. This year's Sox team?#1 in OBP#3 in slugging#2 in ERAEven GREAT teams go through bad stretches. Not saying this is a great team, but it is clearly a VERY GOOD team. Any other conclusion is just mystical nonsense and can't be backed up by anything tangible.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Bottom line there are guys on this team I do not trust in the postseason. Drew, Lugo and Crisp to name the main three.
Drew's postseason numbers are horrendous.
They need another bat. They obviously know how to get guys on base but they need someone else that is going to drive in runs.
The problem that we all know though is that the way this team is constructed it is hard to plug another player in.
Drew's postseason numbers are horrendous.
They need another bat. They obviously know how to get guys on base but they need someone else that is going to drive in runs.
The problem that we all know though is that the way this team is constructed it is hard to plug another player in.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
I don't agree with much of what you are saying here. The 2004 team won because they had a ton of heart. Damon at the top of the order was a great table setter, they don't have that this year, it is something they are missing.The 2004 team didn't win because they were #1 in the league in OBP, they won because they drove those guys in.They won because they got great pitching when it counted, unexpected pitching from Derek Lowe and Keith Foulke's finest season at closer.I hear this argument that there is no such thing as clutch hitters. I dont agree with it. Some guys respond better under pressure than others. JD Drew is not a guy that is going to respond under pressure, Lugo, Crisp, really don't think they are either."This Jamesian numbers stuff"...What's that tell you about the teams clutchibility? My point with this Sox team is that they don't have any heart. The 2004 team had attitude that IMO outpaced their actual ability. I don't see that with this team. Drew, Lowell, Crisp, Lugo.......these guys aren't warriors. It's almost like the Sox have become a poor man's Yankee team. Where the Yanks would go get " square superstars" and pound them into round holes the Sox are married to this Jamesian numbers stuff.Yeah getting 11 hits in 1 game is really really mediocre
Repeat after me: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS CLUTCHIBILITY.There are good hitters and bad hitters. Productive players and not productive players. The 2004 team didn't win because it had "warriors". It won because they were the best hitting team in the league (#1 in OBP and Slugging in all of baseball) and were THIRD in team ERA. This year's Sox team?
Workhorse
Footballguy
Heading into the 2004 postseason, did you trust a guy like Mark Bellhorn? Without him, the Sox are 89 years and counting, you know?
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
No I didn't trust Bellhorn. I guess your argument is that someone else will automatically step up. I'm not sure we can take that for granted and bad hitting can be contagious. This team needs a player to come in and give them some spark to put them over the top. Right now, they have a 1 in 4 chance at best in the AL, I would like to better those odds.
Workhorse
Footballguy
Yeah, the whole "clutch" argument? Doesn't exist. Given enough at-bats, players (and yes, TEAMS) will have pretty much the same OPS in "clutch" situations (like RISP) as they will in "non-clutch" situations. It's been proven time and time again statistically. The 2004 team drove guys in because they had TONS of guys on base. Yes, they won because they were #1 in OBP (among other things...). "Heart"? Tell me something: Did the 2004 team have more "heart" than the 2003 team that lost the ALCS but came back from the 0-2 deficit against the A's? Or the 1999 team that came back from the dead against Cleveland only to get smoked by the Yankees.Heart, fart. Give me a team that gets on base, pitches well and plays good defense. OPE! That's this year's Sox team too.Fine, get off the bandwagon. Don't forget your pink hat.I don't agree with much of what you are saying here. The 2004 team won because they had a ton of heart. Damon at the top of the order was a great table setter, they don't have that this year, it is something they are missing.The 2004 team didn't win because they were #1 in the league in OBP, they won because they drove those guys in.They won because they got great pitching when it counted, unexpected pitching from Derek Lowe and Keith Foulke's finest season at closer.I hear this argument that there is no such thing as clutch hitters. I dont agree with it. Some guys respond better under pressure than others. JD Drew is not a guy that is going to respond under pressure, Lugo, Crisp, really don't think they are either."This Jamesian numbers stuff"...What's that tell you about the teams clutchibility? My point with this Sox team is that they don't have any heart. The 2004 team had attitude that IMO outpaced their actual ability. I don't see that with this team. Drew, Lowell, Crisp, Lugo.......these guys aren't warriors. It's almost like the Sox have become a poor man's Yankee team. Where the Yanks would go get " square superstars" and pound them into round holes the Sox are married to this Jamesian numbers stuff.Yeah getting 11 hits in 1 game is really really mediocre
Alias
Footballguy
XAccording to Baseball Reference, the entire league is 176-1076 (.140) when trailing after 7 innings, Red Sox for the season are 7-35 (.167); Yanks are 4-33 (.108).What's that tell you about the teams clutchibility? My point with this Sox team is that they don't have any heart. The 2004 team had attitude that IMO outpaced their actual ability. I don't see that with this team. Drew, Lowell, Crisp, Lugo.......these guys aren't warriors. It's almost like the Sox have become a poor man's Yankee team. Where the Yanks would go get " square superstars" and pound them into round holes the Sox are married to this Jamesian numbers stuff.Yeah getting 11 hits in 1 game is really really mediocre- they were 1 for 7 with RISP
Last edited by a moderator:
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Well we are going to disagree. You explain individuals who perform better in the postseason, with runners on base as a variance. I explain it as individuals that rise to the occassion in the clutch.Getting on base is great but unless they cross home plate it doesn't matter.You seem to be a Bill James disciple, I am not, we are going to disagree here.
Workhorse
Footballguy
I have mountains and mountains of evidence on my side.You have the romantic notion of "clutch".Good luck with that.I'll make this interesting: Give me the name of 5 players you feel are "clutch" and I'll post their career stats for you. Make it a guy who's played at least 7+ seasons so there's enough data available.
Nigel
Footballguy
11 singles.Yeah getting 11 hits in 1 game is really really mediocre
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
George BrettPete RoseReggie JacksonDavid OrtizMark Lemke
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
you guys panicking with a 7 game lead?
Everyone knew the yankees schedule was butter soft after the break.
Relax and enjoy the ride.
Everyone knew the yankees schedule was butter soft after the break.
Relax and enjoy the ride.
Workhorse
Footballguy
I'll take them one at a time as time permits today.I'll show you batting avg/obp/slg for each guy in this order:OVERALLRISPRISP 2 outsINNINGS 7-9I'll start with George Brett:.305/.369/.487.307/.410/.481.290/.422/.464.296/.371/.468OK, looks like in every "clutch" case, Brett slugged UNDER his overall totals. His OBP was better in the 3 "clutch" cases and his average was at or below his norms. Seems to me that you'd have a hard time making the case that Brett was better in "clutch" situations. If anything, he tended to take more walks than get hits.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Where do postseason numbers fall in your definition of what isn't clutch hitting?
shadyridr
Footballguy
Umm Red Sox have played the Blue Jays, Royals, and White Sox during this same stretch. THey should be staying even with the Yankees during their soft part of the shchedule yet they are losing ground.
Workhorse
Footballguy
Pete Rose:
Overall: .303/.379/.405
RISP: .310/.419/.421
RISP 2 Outs: .306/.428/.420
Inning 7-9: .307/.383/.422
You could make a case that Rose's "clutch" stats show that he was slightly better in those situations - About 1-5% better in the 3 categories. Not exactly overwhelming but I'll give you Rose as being slightly "clutch".
So far, 1 for 2.
Overall: .303/.379/.405
RISP: .310/.419/.421
RISP 2 Outs: .306/.428/.420
Inning 7-9: .307/.383/.422
You could make a case that Rose's "clutch" stats show that he was slightly better in those situations - About 1-5% better in the 3 categories. Not exactly overwhelming but I'll give you Rose as being slightly "clutch".
So far, 1 for 2.
Workhorse
Footballguy
Small sample size. Brett played in 43 postseason games 166 at-bats total. Brett had over 10,000 career at-bats in the regular season. Those 166 at-bats account for about 1.5 percent of his total career. Think about that. For comparison's sake, over a 162 game season, 1.5% of your total at-bats would come in one single extra inning game. Is one game in a season an accurate reflection of a player's skill?
