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The OFFICIAL 2007 Boston Red Sox Thread (1 Viewer)

Reggie:

.262/.356/.490

RISP: .262/.375/.481

RISP 2 Out: .253/.378/.473

Innings 7-9: .254/.351/.478

Hard to say Reggie was "clutch" based on that.

Getting back to the postseason argument, we all think that Reggie was "clutch" based on some otherworldly performance in the World Series. In 5 WS (a total of 98 at-bats), he put up an ungodly line of .357/.457/.755. "Clutch" right? How about his LCS numbers?

163 at-bats, .227/.298/.380.

So why was Reggie Jackson "Babe Ruth" in the World Series and "Julio Lugo" in the LCS?

 
Papi:

Overall: .286/.379/.551

RISP: .296/.398/.504

RISP 2 Out: .281/.402/.520

Innings 7-9: .263/.353/.521

Seeing a pattern? Maybe slightly clutch in terms of batting avg. with RISP but his slugging is below his norms. Everything else shows that Ortiz is actually slightly "unclutch".

Postseason (only 143 at-bats): .301/.383/.552

Almost identical to his career stats...

So far, you're 1 for 4 on "clutch". If "clutch" were a batter, it would be hitting .250.

I'm going to lunch -- Do you REALLY want me to look at Mark Lemke?

 
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Papi:Overall: .286/.379/.551RISP: .296/.398/.504RISP 2 Out: .281/.402/.520Innings 7-9: .263/.353/.521Seeing a pattern? Maybe slightly clutch in terms of batting avg. with RISP but his slugging is below his norms. Everything else shows that Ortiz is actually slightly "unclutch". Postseason (only 143 at-bats): .301/.383/.552Almost identical to his career stats...So far, you're 1-4 on "clutch".I'm going to lunch -- Do you REALLY want me to look at Mark Lemke?
You don't have to look at Lemke, I put him in based on being a better player in the postseason.
 
Papi:Overall: .286/.379/.551RISP: .296/.398/.504RISP 2 Out: .281/.402/.520Innings 7-9: .263/.353/.521Seeing a pattern? Maybe slightly clutch in terms of batting avg. with RISP but his slugging is below his norms. Everything else shows that Ortiz is actually slightly "unclutch". Postseason (only 143 at-bats): .301/.383/.552Almost identical to his career stats...So far, you're 1 for 4 on "clutch". If "clutch" were a batter, it would be hitting .250.I'm going to lunch -- Do you REALLY want me to look at Mark Lemke?
Wouldn't call Papi unclutch. I see what you are getting at that numbers are within a certain variance of the norm.I still maintain that some players are able to deliver better in these situations compared to others. Sure the players I named pretty much continued to do what they always do, but if you did one on one comparisons of players vs other players in these situations, you would see that some are able to continue to hit in pressure situations where others drop off. I am not sure comparing a player against his career statistics is the end all argument.If there is no such thing as clutch hitting, why even look at stats like RISP, they would be essentially useless if you don't think they tell a story.
 
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Can you do Robinson Cano for me? I have been saying he is horrible in the clutch. If there is such a thing as being bad in the clutch why cant someone be good in the clutch? Just because the 5 players JTC mentioned are not clutch statistically (although they are thought of as being clutch by the general public) doesnt mean there are no clutch players and unclutch players. Which I believe proves a point that there is such a thing as being clutch. So just for my entertainment, please run the numbers for Cano.

 
Yeah getting 11 hits in 1 game is really really mediocre :shock: - they were 1 for 7 with RISP :pics:
What's that tell you about the teams clutchibility? My point with this Sox team is that they don't have any heart. The 2004 team had attitude that IMO outpaced their actual ability. I don't see that with this team. Drew, Lowell, Crisp, Lugo.......these guys aren't warriors. It's almost like the Sox have become a poor man's Yankee team. Where the Yanks would go get " square superstars" and pound them into round holes the Sox are married to this Jamesian numbers stuff.
"This Jamesian numbers stuff"... :doh: Repeat after me: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS CLUTCHIBILITY.There are good hitters and bad hitters. Productive players and not productive players. The 2004 team didn't win because it had "warriors". It won because they were the best hitting team in the league (#1 in OBP and Slugging in all of baseball) and were THIRD in team ERA. This year's Sox team?#1 in OBP#3 in slugging#2 in ERAEven GREAT teams go through bad stretches. Not saying this is a great team, but it is clearly a VERY GOOD team. Any other conclusion is just mystical nonsense and can't be backed up by anything tangible.
\What exactly have Jamesian teams/diciples won?
 
Closest stat I know to clutch is WPA, top 50 players (non-pitchers) by WPA according to:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...amp;season=2007

Code:
4.23	Yankees	Alex Rodriguez3.73	Tigers	Magglio Ordonez3.53	Giants	Barry Bonds3.46	Angels	Vladimir Guerrero3.17	Cubs	Aramis Ramirez3.06	Brewers	Prince Fielder3.02	Rockies	Brad Hawpe2.94	Cardinals	Albert Pujols2.64	Rockies	Troy Tulowitzki2.62	Yankees	Derek Jeter2.54	Phillies	Chase Utley2.54	Rockies	Todd Helton2.46	Indians	Victor Martinez2.31	Marlins	Miguel Cabrera2.21	White Sox	Paul Konerko2.16	Tigers	Placido Polanco2.07	Padres	Adrian Gonzalez1.99	Indians	Grady Sizemore1.94	Reds	Ken Griffey Jr.1.94	Cubs	Derrek Lee1.93	Astros	Lance Berkman1.92	Phillies	Aaron Rowand1.9	Braves	Kelly Johnson1.87	Braves	Chipper Jones1.83	Rockies	Matt Holliday1.8	Astros	Hunter Pence1.76	Dodgers	Russell Martin1.7	Twins	Justin Morneau1.58	Devil Rays	Carlos Pena1.53	Red Sox	David Ortiz1.5	Marlins	Hanley Ramirez1.49	Phillies	Shane Victorino1.49	Mets	David Wright1.46	Braves	Edgar Renteria1.45	Cardinals	Chris Duncan1.44	Devil Rays	Carl Crawford1.42	Pirates	Xavier Nady1.41	Mariners	Ichiro Suzuki1.37	Phillies	Jimmy Rollins1.37	Tigers	Gary Sheffield1.35	Indians	Ryan Garko1.34	Astros	Mark Loretta1.31	Indians	Travis Hafner1.29	Tigers	Carlos Guillen1.29	Cubs	Mark DeRosa1.27	Reds	Brandon Phillips1.26	Yankees	Jorge Posada1.25	Yankees	Hideki Matsui1.22	Brewers	Corey Hart1.19	Red Sox	Dustin Pedroia
 
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Aside from Kei Igawa with a WPA of -14.73, Cano has the lowest WPA on the Yankees roster coming in at -12.08.

 
A couple of catchall answers and I need to get back to work:

RISP is a useful tool to explain WHY a team/player previously drove in a lot of runs but I don't think it has any PREDICTIVE value at all. In other words, if a player in some period of time shows higher than his norm RISP production, it's probably an anomoly that will even out over time. A good example of this is David Ortiz: In 2004, his RISP numbers were totally amazing (1.025 OPS vs. his season long .983 OPS). It's hard to argue that he wasn't "clutch" as hell in 2004. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean that "David Ortiz is a clutch hitter". ANY player/teams can have stretches when they are "clutch" or "unclutch". But ultimately, as a hitter/team, you are what the numbers say you are, regardless of situation. Given enough at-bats, water finds its own level, so to speak.

As for "what Jamesian discipiles have won", I could give you the real snarky answer and say The World Champion 2004 Red Sox, who employed Bill James. However, I'd say that a smart organization combines advanced SABR-type anaylsis with good old fashioned scouting in equal amounts.

Whenever people criticize SABR stats, they express a real basic misunderstanding of the craft. It's not like a bunch of guys just invented new numbers and said "these are important" -- In a lot of cases, they worked BACKWARDS. Taking a look at winning teams and finding out what they had in common, and developing stats to explain their success. For example: Bill James' Pythagorean Win/Loss Record.

As for Cano:

Overall: .307/.337/.474

RISP: .248/.284/.408

RISP 2 outs: .217/.254/.372

Inn 7-9: .293/.316/.431

Looks like Cano has been decidedly unclutch so far in his young career. That doesn't mean that "Robinson Cano is unclutch." It just means that he hasn't done well in those opportunities yet, in a very small sample size. That said, I think Cano is going to struggle to be a decent hitter until he learns some plate discipline. The kid has no idea how to draw walks and that may hurt him going forward in his career.

 
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As for "what Jamesian discipiles have won", I could give you the real snarky answer and say The World Champion 2004 Red Sox, who employed Bill James.
Why is that snarky? It's the truthful answer to a stupid question.Anyone know about the severity of Ortiz's injury? TIA.
 
Finless said:
Finless said:
As for "what Jamesian discipiles have won", I could give you the real snarky answer and say The World Champion 2004 Red Sox, who employed Bill James.
Why is that snarky? It's the truthful answer to a stupid question.Anyone know about the severity of Ortiz's injury? TIA.
:bellyflop:
Ug. Rotoworld speculates it's a DTD thing. :jawdrop:
####!
"Strained shoulder."
 
nice looking game from gabbard. when schill comes back, slide julian into the pen & i like the look of the staff A LOT.beckettdice kschillwakegabbard
really liking this gabbard kid. 2 hits through 7, 1 run allowed.crisp 3-4 5 rbimaybe just maybe the offense is starting to come around.
 
Workhorse said:
A couple of catchall answers and I need to get back to work:

RISP is a useful tool to explain WHY a team/player previously drove in a lot of runs but I don't think it has any PREDICTIVE value at all. In other words, if a player in some period of time shows higher than his norm RISP production, it's probably an anomoly that will even out over time. A good example of this is David Ortiz: In 2004, his RISP numbers were totally amazing (1.025 OPS vs. his season long .983 OPS). It's hard to argue that he wasn't "clutch" as hell in 2004. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean that "David Ortiz is a clutch hitter". ANY player/teams can have stretches when they are "clutch" or "unclutch". But ultimately, as a hitter/team, you are what the numbers say you are, regardless of situation. Given enough at-bats, water finds its own level, so to speak.

As for "what Jamesian discipiles have won", I could give you the real snarky answer and say The World Champion 2004 Red Sox, who employed Bill James. However, I'd say that a smart organization combines advanced SABR-type anaylsis with good old fashioned scouting in equal amounts.

Whenever people criticize SABR stats, they express a real basic misunderstanding of the craft. It's not like a bunch of guys just invented new numbers and said "these are important" -- In a lot of cases, they worked BACKWARDS. Taking a look at winning teams and finding out what they had in common, and developing stats to explain their success. For example: Bill James' Pythagorean Win/Loss Record.

As for Cano:

Overall: .307/.337/.474

RISP: .248/.284/.408

RISP 2 outs: .217/.254/.372

Inn 7-9: .293/.316/.431

Looks like Cano has been decidedly unclutch so far in his young career. That doesn't mean that "Robinson Cano is unclutch." It just means that he hasn't done well in those opportunities yet, in a very small sample size. That said, I think Cano is going to struggle to be a decent hitter until he learns some plate discipline. The kid has no idea how to draw walks and that may hurt him going forward in his career.
Thank you. It's nice to see that at least one guy around here realizes that all that Jameisan "Moneyball" junk is at half a bunch of crap.
 
Finless said:
Finless said:
There's a lot of teams out there salivating over Gabbard.
:fishing:
:fishing:4-0, 2.90 ERA...what's not to like?
:fishing:Well, the career 4.2 ERA and the WHIP approaching 1.4 in the minors, to start. That lifetime 2:1 K ratio doesn't inspire much faith either. He looks like a decent back-end of the rotation guy for some team, but nobody is salivating over him.
Greatest Pitcher SInce Jon Papelbomed.
 
Of Boston's 17 runs in the last two days, 11 have come as the direct result of walks.

But yeah: All that OBP stuff is nonsense...

:boxing:

ETA: Now, it's 18 runs, 12 coming from walks.

 
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Finless said:
Lester back up and starting againt the Indians Monday night.
Will be down there tonight! Look for me on TV. I'll be the one holding the "[icon] TOUCHES LITTLE BOYS" sign.
Saweeeeeeeet!Anyone else have not so much faith is Lester?
:confused: He wasn't exactly mowing them down in AAA. He can't be worse than Travarez has been lately though. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
 
Nigel said:
Finless said:
wadegarrett said:
Lester back up and starting againt the Indians Monday night.
Will be down there tonight! Look for me on TV. I'll be the one holding the "[icon] TOUCHES LITTLE BOYS" sign.
Saweeeeeeeet!Anyone else have not so much faith is Lester?
:confused: He wasn't exactly mowing them down in AAA. He can't be worse than Travarez has been lately though. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Really? I thought I had read that he was tearing up AAA and he should have been called up sooner. I think this was at rotojunkie.
 
Nigel said:
Finless said:
wadegarrett said:
Lester back up and starting againt the Indians Monday night.
Will be down there tonight! Look for me on TV. I'll be the one holding the "[icon] TOUCHES LITTLE BOYS" sign.
Saweeeeeeeet!Anyone else have not so much faith is Lester?
:thumbup: He wasn't exactly mowing them down in AAA. He can't be worse than Travarez has been lately though. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Really? I thought I had read that he was tearing up AAA and he should have been called up sooner. I think this was at rotojunkie.
He pitched very well in his last game but didnt get the win. I think he is ready.
 
Really? I thought I had read that he was tearing up AAA and he should have been called up sooner. I think this was at rotojunkie.
Lester tore it up in a few starts at A and some early starts in AAA but recently he has not fared as well.He is 4-5 with a 3.89 ERA in AAA. 1.37 WHIP with 51 Ks to go with 31 BBs.

 
the lester story is pretty damn cool. i hope he does well. i see a 3.75-5 era with an average 6.5 innings pitched. i love the lefty factor & tavares helps the bullpen. who do you think ends up on the rotation after schilling comes back? if lester does well.

 
Awesome win for the Red Sox, nice to see Lester come out and pitch well. The strikeout of Hafner was :money: and the Sizemore K was impressive as well. Absolutely blew both those guys away.

Red Sox are looking very impressive, nice to see them responding quite well to the Yankees surge. Tonights game should be a good one...

 
I don't think you have to be a fan of baseball to be psyched about what Lester did last night. His performance didn't even start out that great - he had a couple scoreless innings, pitched himself into and out of a jam in the third. Partway through the fourth I was wondering if he'd be able to pitch long enough to have a shot at the W. Then he had a quick fifth and induced the double play in the sixth, and he earned the W and then some.

Great job, kid, and welcome back.

 
Anyone else watching the game last night notice the old guy in the plaid shirt sitting in the first row above the Sox dugout had a different color baseball cap on every inning? They were all hideous, bight colored mesh-backed hats with straight brims. Very odd, look for him tonight.

 
the Sox have 10 or more hits in 7 straight games and 11 of the last 12....here's to hoping this surge continues tonight

 
Anyone else watching the game last night notice the old guy in the plaid shirt sitting in the first row above the Sox dugout had a different color baseball cap on every inning? They were all hideous, bight colored mesh-backed hats with straight brims. Very odd, look for him tonight.
Tip of the cap

Baseball fans flip their lids over Jacobs Field’s colorful ‘Hat Man’

Cleveland Plain Dealer

August 23, 2004

There’s the character of an alluring ballpark. And then there are the characters inside it.

At Jacobs Field, briefly fashionable again as the Indians flirted with a pennant race, drumming bleacherite John Adams is legendary. Sister Mary Assumpta scored national attention during two World Series for her chocolate-chip cookies and undying faith in the team.

And when the TV camera zooms in on left-handed batters, viewers might notice a man seated in the background with a Day-Glo hat and personality to match.

He’s Tom “the Hat Man” O’Toole.

The Willoughby man changes hats every inning, from one bright-colored ballcap to the next, always in the same order. The Hat Man has done his hat thing since Jacobs Field opened 10 years ago – to the point where he’s developed a following.

“People tell us they know from the color of his hat what inning it is,” said Joanne O’Toole, his wife of 39 years.

The O’Tooles have been Indians’ season ticket-holders for 37 years. When the team moved from dingy Municipal Stadium to Jacobs Field in 1994, Tom got so caught up in the color and excitement of the new place that he decided to add some spice of his own.

Thus, the hats, which he religiously brings to the games in a light blue duffel bag with his name, “Thomas O’Toole,” etched on the side. Each hat has the corresponding inning number taped to the underside of the bill, including four for extra innings.

When lefties step up to the plate and the camera sneaks in, the Hat Man and his wife are hard to miss from their front-row seats in section 148 behind the visitor’s dugout. So hard, in fact, that he’s routinely approached for autographs.

As a recent game against the division-leading Minnesota Twins entered the bottom of the eighth inning, Indians fan Cathy Deininger of Cleveland Heights fawned over the Hat Man.

“It’s the best! You’re the best! I love you for doing that,” she told him. Patrons at her neighborhood bar, not realizing he follows a pattern, often bet on which hat he’ll be wearing next.

“Oh, my God, it’s hilarious,” she said. “We just watch it and go, ‘There’s the ultimate fan ever.’ ”

Although the O’Tooles have A-list box seats, they couldn’t be more unassuming.

They work as free-lance travel writers and photographers, attending about a quarter of the Indians’ 81 home games — always Opening Day, every Yankees game and all the Friday games and special-event days. They sell the rest of their tickets to friends.

Tom is bubbly, with blue eyes that sparkle with a genuine zest for life. As Tom tells a familiar story, Joanne, the bigger baseball fan of the two, gazes at him with her soft brown eyes, smiling as if she’s hearing it for the first time.

They met at a wedding in 1964. On their first date, Tom wanted to do something different, something memorable. So he asked her to dinner, picked her up and drove to Cavoli’s, an Italian restaurant near the Cleveland-Lakewood border.

He knew her family owned the place.

“Who takes a date to her family’s restaurant?” Joanne wondered to herself. She wasn’t sure what to make of this guy, but he certainly was different — and memorable. They’ve been together ever since, and seated side by side at Indians games.

Tom is amused by the celebrity. He doesn’t understand the fuss, which really took off during the 1995 World Series. The national exposure was unavoidable. Atlanta Braves owner Ted Turner and actress Jane Fonda, Turner’s wife at the time, sat behind them in Cleveland.

By the fourth inning, Tom overheard Turner and Fonda wondering what gives with all the hats. So Tom turned around, introduced himself and explained.

Turner asked whether Tom kept a railroad engineer’s hat in his bag. He didn’t but returned with one for Turner the next night.

The Hat Man now has fans nationwide.

When the O’Tooles arrived for the Twins game on a recent Friday night, they were handed a letter left for them days before. It was from Gerry Schurtz, who watches Indians games on satellite TV at home in Las Cruces, N.M. He had hoped to give the Hat Man a cap while visiting Jacobs Field, but the O’Tooles weren’t there. So Schurtz left them a distinctive hat and the note.

The Hat Man won’t wear hats for commercial reasons, although he’s been asked many times, and he won’t wear other people’s hats. But he broke his own policy this time.

In the fourth inning, Tom slipped on a light brown cap with a black bill and the words “Eat Pecans.”

“That was one of the high points of my life,” Schurtz, a 69-year-old pecan farmer, said by phone. “Cleveland Indians fans take delight in small things.”
 
“It’s the best! You’re the best! I love you for doing that,” she told him. Patrons at her neighborhood bar, not realizing he follows a pattern, often bet on which hat he’ll be wearing next.
easy money
 
Finless said:
It's nice having 2 lights out closers, best bullpen ERA in the majors, Crisp, Lugo, and Manny smashing the ball all over the park, Schilling returning and some nice young arms :goodposting:
15 more games against the Devil Rays never hurt either.
 
Finless said:
It's nice having 2 lights out closers, best bullpen ERA in the majors, Crisp, Lugo, and Manny smashing the ball all over the park, Schilling returning and some nice young arms :wall:
...and Teixeira batting 5th next week. :thumbup:
 
Finless said:
Finless said:
It's nice having 2 lights out closers, best bullpen ERA in the majors, Crisp, Lugo, and Manny smashing the ball all over the park, Schilling returning and some nice young arms :banned:
...and Teixeira batting 5th next week. :confused:
Ya think? I don't see it happening. We are rolling along anyhow. I think we can get it done with what we have.
:shrug: Seems to be alot of talk about it.I would love to see Tex playing first and Youks at third.Lowell has been a terrible 2nd half player for some time now. I can't imagine him keeping up what he has going now. So it seems like a perfect time to get something for him.Wily Mo, Lester, Murphy for Teixeira. Lowell for another bullpen arm. Cross fingers and hope that old windbag Schilling shuts his mouth enough to pitch some quality innings.
 
Best Record in Baseball continues to live up to the hype...gotta love the Sox shutting down Cleveland's potent offense for a second straight night. Going into the series I was hoping for a split; assured of that, and with the Ace on the mound tonight, can't help but be hopeful for more

 
Finless said:
Finless said:
It's nice having 2 lights out closers, best bullpen ERA in the majors, Crisp, Lugo, and Manny smashing the ball all over the park, Schilling returning and some nice young arms :boxing:
...and Teixeira batting 5th next week. :thumbup:
Ya think? I don't see it happening. We are rolling along anyhow. I think we can get it done with what we have.
:argue: Seems to be alot of talk about it.I would love to see Tex playing first and Youks at third.

Lowell has been a terrible 2nd half player for some time now. I can't imagine him keeping up what he has going now. So it seems like a perfect time to get something for him.

Wily Mo, Lester, Murphy for Teixeira. Lowell for another bullpen arm. Cross fingers and hope that old windbag Schilling shuts his mouth enough to pitch some quality innings.
:hot:
 
Finless said:
Finless said:
It's nice having 2 lights out closers, best bullpen ERA in the majors, Crisp, Lugo, and Manny smashing the ball all over the park, Schilling returning and some nice young arms :thumbup:
...and Teixeira batting 5th next week. :goodposting:
Ya think? I don't see it happening. We are rolling along anyhow. I think we can get it done with what we have.
:mellow: Seems to be alot of talk about it.I would love to see Tex playing first and Youks at third.

Lowell has been a terrible 2nd half player for some time now. I can't imagine him keeping up what he has going now. So it seems like a perfect time to get something for him.

Wily Mo, Lester, Murphy for Teixeira. Lowell for another bullpen arm. Cross fingers and hope that old windbag Schilling shuts his mouth enough to pitch some quality innings.
:wub:
Lester is a good start...he's exactly what Texas is looking for. Wily Mo and Murphy will not be enough.
 
I still don't get the lack of love for Lowell. He's leading the team in RBI, is one HR away from leading the team in that category, is hitting over .300 and plays great defense. I don't see at this point how adding Teixeira helps the team this year.

 
I still don't get the lack of love for Lowell. He's leading the team in RBI, is one HR away from leading the team in that category, is hitting over .300 and plays great defense. I don't see at this point how adding Teixeira helps the team this year.
:goodposting: I have an unsettling amount of manlove for that guy and I don't buy into the second half fade destiny. A guy the Sox should deal now is Gabbard. He's pitched well and his value will never be higher. He does not have the plus stuff that the other young "untouchable" arms have. Not sure what you can get for him, but I would think he has some value if packaged with one of the young OF prospects like Murphy or Moss (I don't want to see elsbury dealt).

 
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