kutta
Footballguy
I have pick 10 this year in my redraft, and it is very similar to picks 11 and 12, so I figured we could lump the draft discussion for this spot into one thread.
I've been doing a lot of mocks and a lot of thinking about this spot, and here are some of my thoughts:
1. I will not be drafting a WR from this spot unless a miracle happens and Calvin is available. The other WR's do not interest me, and I really like the WR's available at the 3/4 turn (are Andre Johnson and Fitz really that much better thank Nicks, Cruz, Jordy, Wallace, and Steve Smith?).
2. If one of the big three QB's (Brees, Brady, Rogers) are there I will take them at 10. At this spot we are missing on a whole bunch of good point scorers at the RB position, so we need to make sure we have a scoring rock in our lineup. These three guys will provide points week in and week out. I'm not going to settle for riskier picks at any position when I have a sure thing at the QB spot.
3. I will consider Graham in the 2nd round, for similar reasons stated in #2. I don't think I will take Gronk as I think his competition for touches will go up if Hernandez stays healthy and Lloyd plays up to where most think he will. But Graham lost Meacham, and I don't see any new offensive weapons to take away his touches. The problem with Graham in the 2nd, assuming a QB in the 1st, is that the RB pool dries up VERY quickly this year. The best case scenario for RB 1 in the 3rd round is probably Bradshaw, and that isn't too exciting. Also, by going QB/TE early, you are almost forced to take at least one RB at 3/4, and I really like the WR value there this year. I really want to set myself up to take two WR's at the 3/4 turn.
4. If the big 3 QB's are gone, I am hoping for Matthews, Chris Johnson, or McFadden in round 1. I will then hope to follow them up with another RB (one of the guys mentioned, or Richardson) in Round 2. I'll take my WR's at the 3/4 turn, and hopefully grab Eli or Romo at 5/6 for my QB. I would also take Graham here paired with one of the RB's.
5. I really like Decker this year, and he has been available in the 5th.
6. If I get stuck for RB and have zero or one after four rounds, I will look to load up on Redman, McGahee, Starks, Brown, and Green-Ells and hope to get lucky with a couple of them.
7. In the mocks I've done, there are still some really good TE's left in the 6th and 7th rounds (Hernandez, Witten, and Davis). Passing on Graham and Gronk early, getting a great QB and a solid RB, and grabbing one of these guys in the 6th is pretty enticing.
Here are guys I am sure we won't see at this spot:
1. Foster
2. Rice
3. McCoy
4. Rogers
Here are guys I am pretty sure we won't see:
5. Calvin
Here are guys we might see:
6. Chris Johnson
7. Ryan Matthews
8. McFadden
9. Brees
10. Brady (this is the spot I am drafting in. I'd be happy with any of these guys)
11. Jones-Drew
12. Forte
RB's I just do not like and will not draft in the 2nd:
1. Murray
2. Peterson
3. Charles
4. Sproles
5. Steven Jackson
6. Forte
Guys I like and hope to draft in the 2nd:
1. McFadden
2. Chris Johnson
3. Graham
4. MJD (maybe, he will probably go much earlier but I have seen him fall)
5. Richardson
This should get the discussion kicked off.
Thoughts?
I've been doing a lot of mocks and a lot of thinking about this spot, and here are some of my thoughts:
1. I will not be drafting a WR from this spot unless a miracle happens and Calvin is available. The other WR's do not interest me, and I really like the WR's available at the 3/4 turn (are Andre Johnson and Fitz really that much better thank Nicks, Cruz, Jordy, Wallace, and Steve Smith?).
2. If one of the big three QB's (Brees, Brady, Rogers) are there I will take them at 10. At this spot we are missing on a whole bunch of good point scorers at the RB position, so we need to make sure we have a scoring rock in our lineup. These three guys will provide points week in and week out. I'm not going to settle for riskier picks at any position when I have a sure thing at the QB spot.
3. I will consider Graham in the 2nd round, for similar reasons stated in #2. I don't think I will take Gronk as I think his competition for touches will go up if Hernandez stays healthy and Lloyd plays up to where most think he will. But Graham lost Meacham, and I don't see any new offensive weapons to take away his touches. The problem with Graham in the 2nd, assuming a QB in the 1st, is that the RB pool dries up VERY quickly this year. The best case scenario for RB 1 in the 3rd round is probably Bradshaw, and that isn't too exciting. Also, by going QB/TE early, you are almost forced to take at least one RB at 3/4, and I really like the WR value there this year. I really want to set myself up to take two WR's at the 3/4 turn.
4. If the big 3 QB's are gone, I am hoping for Matthews, Chris Johnson, or McFadden in round 1. I will then hope to follow them up with another RB (one of the guys mentioned, or Richardson) in Round 2. I'll take my WR's at the 3/4 turn, and hopefully grab Eli or Romo at 5/6 for my QB. I would also take Graham here paired with one of the RB's.
5. I really like Decker this year, and he has been available in the 5th.
6. If I get stuck for RB and have zero or one after four rounds, I will look to load up on Redman, McGahee, Starks, Brown, and Green-Ells and hope to get lucky with a couple of them.
7. In the mocks I've done, there are still some really good TE's left in the 6th and 7th rounds (Hernandez, Witten, and Davis). Passing on Graham and Gronk early, getting a great QB and a solid RB, and grabbing one of these guys in the 6th is pretty enticing.
Here are guys I am sure we won't see at this spot:
1. Foster
2. Rice
3. McCoy
4. Rogers
Here are guys I am pretty sure we won't see:
5. Calvin
Here are guys we might see:
6. Chris Johnson
7. Ryan Matthews
8. McFadden
9. Brees
10. Brady (this is the spot I am drafting in. I'd be happy with any of these guys)
11. Jones-Drew
12. Forte
RB's I just do not like and will not draft in the 2nd:
1. Murray
2. Peterson
3. Charles
4. Sproles
5. Steven Jackson
6. Forte
Guys I like and hope to draft in the 2nd:
1. McFadden
2. Chris Johnson
3. Graham
4. MJD (maybe, he will probably go much earlier but I have seen him fall)
5. Richardson
This should get the discussion kicked off.
Thoughts?