The Over the Hill but Highly Productive Gang at WR. (1 Viewer)

[Mr Non Sequitur]

We all belong to many dynasty leagues and they sometimes cloud our judgement as we trade away a fairly productive player in the here and now for what we "Hope, Think, Believe" will be a future star. We get so consumed with these moves that when redraft rolls around I sometimes find owners thinking a rookie WR has a better chance of production over some of the 30-somethings at WR who are racking up 80/1000 seasons still and show no sign of fall off. I thought it a good idea to freshen up the ages and also perhaps discuss ADP with some of these guys because knowing you can get quality production out of your WR2, WR3 plus possible flex spots in the later rounds will help make some choices easier in the 1st 2-3 rounds and where you want to take your team.

One other angle I like to discuss is taking a quality steady eddie after you have taken a couple swing for the fences types. I prefer a good balance. Sometimes you get lucky and hit on a bunch of long shots but the odds are not stacked in your favor. I am going to list and discuss briefly the WRs who landed in the top 30 last year in PPR and are either turning 30 before the season starts or have already passed that milestone.

Andre Johnson (32-Jul): Coming off his highest production receiving yards ever. How many WRs have 3 different 1,500+ yd seasons on their resume? 4 different 100+ reception seasons but now has a hot rookie coming in. Maybe that will actually help him as the years roll along. Certainly a slight regress should be expected here. He likely will be taken in the 2nd round which means no one is really overlooking AJ right now. There are going to be other options for steady production later, AJ is still a frontline WR1 for most.

Wes Welker: Turned 32 in May, new team, will still be highly productive. Manning has been aching to get Welker on his team, he knows what he can do to exploit these talents and I see no reason Welker will not dominate the middle of the field in the Denver offense. He is sliding in drafts, an afterthought in some dynasty leagues, this pair was made to be together. 5 of his last 6 seasons are 112, 112, 118, 122, and 123 for reception totals. The power shift from NE to Den is official.

Reggie Wayne: Will turn 35 in November. 4 of his last 6 seasons are 100+ catch totals, Luck figures to be better. no reason he can't hit 80-90 catches this year. Solid production.

I'm not even out of the top 10 from last year yet.

Roddy White: He is 31 entering the season, turns 32 in Nov, doesn't seem to be slipping much and has a terrific future WR1 lined up across from him who garners a lot of attention from opposing defenses. White will flux a lot in the season as most WRs do but in the end he is gonna top out at 80-90 balls and be productive.

Vincent Jackson: He turned 30 in the off season FYI. He is still highly regarded and will go well before a couple of the other names we have already mentioned. VJax was top 12 last year and makes a pretty strong WR2 if you can acquire him with possibly an AJ Green at the 1 hole.

Marques Coston: Send him a 30th B-Day card as he turns 30 on June 5th. He is always good for 80/1000/8TD and possibly more. He has stretches of 3-4 weeks where he hits top5 numbers. No one wants him but he is productive.

Steve Smith: The GreyBeard turned 34 and one has to wonder if his skills are on the downtrend. The problem is no one is there to push him so he is likely to produce about 70-80 balls with a couple big games mixed in. He might be better as a WR3 at this point. New offense.

Lance Moore: Turns 30 in August, same team as Colston, will likely be productive but you wonder if he pushed it a bit last year making 21st at WR. He is always around when you look up in the 8th or 9th and need that WR3/4 rotation on your roster.

Anquan Boldin: He will be 33 in August but one has to think his stock is on the rise right now. I think he will be over drafted as SF has a lot of ways to hurt teams without tossing 10-12 targets a game at Boldin. I liked him better pre Crabtree injury. Boldn was good for 30th overall last year and did not have very many impact games.

So that is a working list, if you have others please add to it.

 

[FUBAR]

It's probably not a good sign that you just listed my starting four WRs in my mason dynasty league. White, Colston, Welker, and VJax.

 

[msudaisy26]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old.

Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

 

[cstu]

By coincidence I put together some info on older WR's:

Number of WR seasons scoring 100+ non-PPR FF points (roughly high WR3 numbers) by age (2012 players in bold):31 - 37 (recently: AJ/White/Welker/Lloyd/Floyd in 2012, Boldin/Gaffney in 2011)32 - 23 (recently: Boldin in 2012, Steve Smith/Branch in 2011)33 - 15 (recently: Steve Smith/Santana Moss in 2012, Wayne in 2011)34 - 15 (recently: Wayne in 2012)35 - 9 (recently: Derrick Mason in 2009 and Owens in 2008)36 - 7 (recently: Derrick Mason in 2010 and Owens in 2009)37 - 1 (Owens in 2010)

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

It's probably not a good sign that you just listed my starting four WRs in my mason dynasty league. White, Colston, Welker, and VJax.

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old.

Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

Like I was saying. This was more about redraft but the two parallel each other. I think you can clean up year 1 in dynasty leagues by drafting the guys who will be productive right away and then worry about a youth movement in years 2 and 3. Some would rather load up will largely young and unproven talent. Both can blow up in your face.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Brandon Lloyd is not on any roster yet but he was in the top 30 last year. He is 31 or 32 I believe and he will surely be signed at some point. I forgot him and he was on my original list.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Although I preferred Welker in NE, I am pretty happy with the Denver spot, especially being a Denver homer. He seems like PPR gold for at least the next two years, and shouldn't be all too difficult to acquire in some leagues. That said, I had to give up a decent amount to snag him this offseason.I bought on Welker back when it was a sure thing he was going to resign with the Pats. I ended up giving up Pead, Schaub, the 20th Overall in 2013, a presumed late 1st in 2014, and two presumed late 2nds in 2014 for Welker and Fleener. This was a dynasty, No TE, Start 3 WR, PPR with 19 player rosters.

 

[Christo]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old.

Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

30-31 for an elite WR is 26-27 for an elite RB.

 

[Shutout]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old. Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

I think the "problem" was yours, not your trading partner's. your team would have been better having made those trades so it may be that people get too caught up in blanket age discrimination.

 

[squistion]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old.

Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

It is funny to me that you had that experience in that Lance Moore is a player it seems that I can't even give away in trade. I have tried to move him in one league for a couple years and no one is interested to the point that I don't even get low ball offers to counter. Moore is the Rodney Dangerfield of WRs, he just gets no respect, particularly in PPR leagues, even though he is a fairly consistent solid performer.

 

[Tool]

andre johnson doesn't seem to know where the end zone is.

 

[msudaisy26]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old. Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

I think the "problem" was yours, not your trading partner's. your team would have been better having made those trades so it may be that people get too caught up in blanket age discrimination.

I don't think my team would have been better in anyway by making any of those trades, it wouldn't have been better last year and it sure wouldn't be better today or going forward

 

[cstu]

andre johnson doesn't seem to know where the end zone is.

He was never the TD threat I assumed he'd be. His talent is on par with Calvin, IMO, but for the number of targets he gets he doesn't translate a very high percentage into TD's like I think he should.

 

[cstu]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old.

Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

It is funny to me that you had that experience in that Lance Moore is a player it seems that I can't even give away in trade. I have tried to move him in one league for a couple years and no one is interested to the point that I don't even get low ball offers to counter. Moore is the Rodney Dangerfield of WRs, he just gets no respect, particularly in PPR leagues, even though he is a fairly consistent solid performer.

Before last year he wasn't much more than bye week filler. Even last year he through up his share of clunkers and didn't help anyone win in the playoffs.

 

[msudaisy26]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old.

Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

It is funny to me that you had that experience in that Lance Moore is a player it seems that I can't even give away in trade. I have tried to move him in one league for a couple years and no one is interested to the point that I don't even get low ball offers to counter. Moore is the Rodney Dangerfield of WRs, he just gets no respect, particularly in PPR leagues, even though he is a fairly consistent solid performer.

Before last year he wasn't much more than bye week filler. Even last year he through up his share of clunkers and didn't help anyone win in the playoffs.

I agree, but I was nailed by the injury bug. I had Broyles, Harvin and Bowe all on IR by the end of the year and was starting Boldin as my number 2 reciever and Hawkins as my number 3. Was hoping to get Moore for a pick.

 

[loqutis]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old. Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

Let the players rot on their roster. If they're foolish enough to request a trade like that, I would walk away and never look back.

 

[plastik]

Greg Jennings seems like he fits with these players, though how you value him is obviously closely related to how you feel about Ponder. I've seen him dealt surprisingly cheaply recently-- Jennings, late 2014 2nd, late 2014 3rd for Justin Hunter--a deal that illustrates the OP's point well, I think.

 

[jsharlan]

andre johnson doesn't seem to know where the end zone is.

He was never the TD threat I assumed he'd be. His talent is on par with Calvin, IMO, but for the number of targets he gets he doesn't translate a very high percentage into TD's like I think he should.

Being a Houston homer, it isn't really Andre's fault. Noodle armed Schaub costs him about 5 TDs a year by underthrowing the deep ball and making Andre have to wait for it giving the corner time to catch him. Before that he had David freaking Carr throwing to him. I can't even imagine what Andre could have done with a top tier QB throwing to him all these years.

 

[meyerj31]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old. Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

In my league these older guys are so undervalued. Other teams barely think of these guys as toss-ins during a trade. Meanwhile I keep winning/make the Super Bowl every year while the other teams hoard rookie draft picks and accept a fair a guy like Wayne that was putting up great numbers last year. Half my league is constantly playing for next season which means they'll never make a move for an older guy.

This is definitely the way every dynasty league I've been in tends to run. The older guys are so undervalued for their current production. In one league I have AJ / Colston / Wayne / Jennings / Calvin and Lynch / Brady / Pitta as my other starters. While they are scrambling for the next great thing I already have a dominate team, and didn't have to reach for any of them.

 

[dickey moe]

I'll add Nate Burleson -- he'll be the Lions WR2 this year and could probably be serviceable for the Lions or another team for 2-3 more years.

 

[dickey moe]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old.

Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

Yeah -- those older WRs are virtually untradable because the owners value them too highly. Nothing to do but ride them out until they fade into dust.

 

[Shutout]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old. Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

I think the "problem" was yours, not your trading partner's. your team would have been better having made those trades so it may be that people get too caught up in blanket age discrimination.

I don't think my team would have been better in anyway by making any of those trades, it wouldn't have been better last year and it sure wouldn't be better today or going forward

Maybe it depends on your scoring system but from where I am sitting, Wayne and Spiller scored about the same amount of points last year and Wayne was incredibly consistent each week. AJ completely dwarfed Shady's production. I don't know how you can possibly think your team was better last year with McCoy not playing so many games (and AJ, in the meantime was putting up tons of points).

Your second statement pretty much sums up the entire idea of this type of threat. You state categorically today that you somehow know that your team wouldn't be better off if you had those guys today. You can't possibly know that. Despite having hindsight as a teller, you even say it wasn't true in the past when it is obvious that AJ/Wayne outscored Spiller/McCoy handidly and, when it all comes down to it, the entire goal of this game is to outscore your opponents.

But that's the problem. We all easly understand your sentiment; that a younger RB trumps an older Wr and, therefore, you couldn't possibly be expected to make that trade in a dynasty. But somehow, and I see this ALL the time, the guys that just simply can not get themselves to trade away a guy who is 26 or is a big name, routinely gets beaten year after year after year by the guys that have the Steve Smiths, Tony Gonzalez's Aj's, etc and I know for a fact that, allt hings being equal, the guys that had the Wayne/AJ/ Smith/Gonzo types of players were stomping all over the Ingrams/McCoys/etc of the world.

But this is what causes the problem: people read and hear and get reinforced at every possible juncture about how old players are bad in dynasty and by doing so they ignore older players with great consistency and while they spend time swinging for the fences each and every year, they lose out to the solid teams knocking doubles all over the park. In the end, too many people get caught up in trying to build a "dynasty" team without ever focussing on winning in the current year and that's pretty funny because, like the proverb says, every great journey begins with a single step. You can't build a dynasty if you never win the first one.

 

[cstu]

Your second statement pretty much sums up the entire idea of this type of threat. You state categorically today that you somehow know that your team wouldn't be better off if you had those guys today. You can't possibly know that. Despite having hindsight as a teller, you even say it wasn't true in the past when it is obvious that AJ/Wayne outscored Spiller/McCoy handidly and, when it all comes down to it, the entire goal of this game is to outscore your opponents.

You play to win but you also play to win next year and every year after that.

AJ for McCoy straight up is an awful trade and the Wayne one is laughable. You can argue that he should try to make some other moves but if no one wants to make fair trades then I don't agree with giving away a ton of value just to compete for this year's title.

 

[cstu]

I like the list but the problem I have had acquiring guys like this in my dynasty league is that people still value them as if they are 26 years old. Last year I tried to acquire Andre Johnson and or Reggie Wayne from a team that was rebuilding, to get Andre Johnson he wanted Lesean Mccoy straight up. Reggie Wayne he wanted C.J. Spiller or pick 1.06 in the 2012 draft and Decker. I also tried to get Lance Moore near the trade deadline last year and he wanted my 2013 1st round pick plus Broyles, before he torn his acl.

In my league these older guys are so undervalued. Other teams barely think of these guys as toss-ins during a trade. Meanwhile I keep winning/make the Super Bowl every year while the other teams hoard rookie draft picks and accept a fair a guy like Wayne that was putting up great numbers last year. Half my league is constantly playing for next season which means they'll never make a move for an older guy.

This is definitely the way every dynasty league I've been in tends to run. The older guys are so undervalued for their current production. In one league I have AJ / Colston / Wayne / Jennings / Calvin and Lynch / Brady / Pitta as my other starters. While they are scrambling for the next great thing I already have a dominate team, and didn't have to reach for any of them.

In an established dynasty league half the teams will be rebuilding. You have to look at it from their point of view - you already have those studs so how are they going to compete with you? Their only way they are going to be able to complete is to develop young talent and slowly add some studs as their draft picks start to pan out.

 

[matttyl]

andre johnson doesn't seem to know where the end zone is.

And last year Calvin Johnson thought it started at the 1 yard line.

 

[Shutout]

Your second statement pretty much sums up the entire idea of this type of threat. You state categorically today that you somehow know that your team wouldn't be better off if you had those guys today. You can't possibly know that. Despite having hindsight as a teller, you even say it wasn't true in the past when it is obvious that AJ/Wayne outscored Spiller/McCoy handidly and, when it all comes down to it, the entire goal of this game is to outscore your opponents.

You play to win but you also play to win next year and every year after that.

AJ for McCoy straight up is an awful trade and the Wayne one is laughable. You can argue that he should try to make some other moves but if no one wants to make fair trades then I don't agree with giving away a ton of value just to compete for this year's title.

Apparently you prefer perceived "Everyone will agree with me value" over "yes, this actually makes my team win this league I just paid for" value.

Again, I get the notion of young RB > Older WR but if there was a way to tally up which teams actually met the goal of FF (to win in the year you are playing), then it would prove the obvious; AJ/Wayne won more leagues for more people than McCoy/Spiller, all things being equal. SO in that sense, the "shark move" as people like to call it last year was clearly "I see what is going on here with these player this year and Wayne is gold, AJ is the man in Houston, Spiller and McCoy are both riskier. There's nothing not to understand about that. In the words of the famous/infamous Herm Edwards...you play to win the game and if you didn't see last year that Wayne and Aj were the legit weekly better threats over McCoy/Spiller, week in and week out, then you were not trying to win.

All that being said, Do I blame a person for not taking those trades? No. But I AM saying, your better move was to take the trade IF what you really wanted to do was win last year.

 

[Frank Black]

Great post. One of the biggest mysteries in the group the OP named is Steve Smith. I'm a homer and a big Smith fan; however, I'm disechanted with Cam Newton, I'm not sold that Smith can be consistent any longer, and I don't know what to expect out of Smith beyond a #3 WR. Problem is that in many leagues, you have to use a #2 WR draft pick for him.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Nate Burleson and Greg Jennings were excellent names to add to the list

 

[msudaisy26]

If I made those moves I would have had no starting running backs on my team. So my team would have been much worse.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Your second statement pretty much sums up the entire idea of this type of threat. You state categorically today that you somehow know that your team wouldn't be better off if you had those guys today. You can't possibly know that. Despite having hindsight as a teller, you even say it wasn't true in the past when it is obvious that AJ/Wayne outscored Spiller/McCoy handidly and, when it all comes down to it, the entire goal of this game is to outscore your opponents.

You play to win but you also play to win next year and every year after that.

AJ for McCoy straight up is an awful trade and the Wayne one is laughable. You can argue that he should try to make some other moves but if no one wants to make fair trades then I don't agree with giving away a ton of value just to compete for this year's title.

Apparently you prefer perceived "Everyone will agree with me value" over "yes, this actually makes my team win this league I just paid for" value.

Again, I get the notion of young RB > Older WR but if there was a way to tally up which teams actually met the goal of FF (to win in the year you are playing), then it would prove the obvious; AJ/Wayne won more leagues for more people than McCoy/Spiller, all things being equal. SO in that sense, the "shark move" as people like to call it last year was clearly "I see what is going on here with these player this year and Wayne is gold, AJ is the man in Houston, Spiller and McCoy are both riskier. There's nothing not to understand about that. In the words of the famous/infamous Herm Edwards...you play to win the game and if you didn't see last year that Wayne and Aj were the legit weekly better threats over McCoy/Spiller, week in and week out, then you were not trying to win.

All that being said, Do I blame a person for not taking those trades? No. But I AM saying, your better move was to take the trade IF what you really wanted to do was win last year.

You're not taking into account the team involved. It doesn't matter if Wayne/AJ outscored McCoy/Spiller, what matters is how big of a downgrade it is to the team's backups. If you have decent depth at WR, and zero depth at RB, this trade makes no sense, and severely hurts your team now, and in the future. I see what you're trying to say, but your point falls flat because it is not in context.

Beyond that, you neglect to account for age and perceived value. If you think McCoy or Spiller is overrated, you most likely have the option to trade them for a better WR than AJ, and almost definitely better than Wayne. Wayne turns 35 this year, and statistically speaking this is almost certainly going to be the last season he is startable. Whereas, McCoy and Spiller should put up solid, possibly elite, stats for at least the next 3 years, barring injury.

 

[x260bm]

Your second statement pretty much sums up the entire idea of this type of threat. You state categorically today that you somehow know that your team wouldn't be better off if you had those guys today. You can't possibly know that. Despite having hindsight as a teller, you even say it wasn't true in the past when it is obvious that AJ/Wayne outscored Spiller/McCoy handidly and, when it all comes down to it, the entire goal of this game is to outscore your opponents.

You play to win but you also play to win next year and every year after that.

AJ for McCoy straight up is an awful trade and the Wayne one is laughable. You can argue that he should try to make some other moves but if no one wants to make fair trades then I don't agree with giving away a ton of value just to compete for this year's title.

Apparently you prefer perceived "Everyone will agree with me value" over "yes, this actually makes my team win this league I just paid for" value.

Again, I get the notion of young RB > Older WR but if there was a way to tally up which teams actually met the goal of FF (to win in the year you are playing), then it would prove the obvious; AJ/Wayne won more leagues for more people than McCoy/Spiller, all things being equal. SO in that sense, the "shark move" as people like to call it last year was clearly "I see what is going on here with these player this year and Wayne is gold, AJ is the man in Houston, Spiller and McCoy are both riskier. There's nothing not to understand about that. In the words of the famous/infamous Herm Edwards...you play to win the game and if you didn't see last year that Wayne and Aj were the legit weekly better threats over McCoy/Spiller, week in and week out, then you were not trying to win.

All that being said, Do I blame a person for not taking those trades? No. But I AM saying, your better move was to take the trade IF what you really wanted to do was win last year.

Seems to me that the RBs in question outscored the WRs in the vast majority of leagues in weeks 16 and 17. How would scoring less in his championship game help him win?

 

[Christo]

Your second statement pretty much sums up the entire idea of this type of threat. You state categorically today that you somehow know that your team wouldn't be better off if you had those guys today. You can't possibly know that. Despite having hindsight as a teller, you even say it wasn't true in the past when it is obvious that AJ/Wayne outscored Spiller/McCoy handidly and, when it all comes down to it, the entire goal of this game is to outscore your opponents.

You play to win but you also play to win next year and every year after that. AJ for McCoy straight up is an awful trade and the Wayne one is laughable. You can argue that he should try to make some other moves but if no one wants to make fair trades then I don't agree with giving away a ton of value just to compete for this year's title.

Apparently you prefer perceived "Everyone will agree with me value" over "yes, this actually makes my team win this league I just paid for" value. Again, I get the notion of young RB > Older WR but if there was a way to tally up which teams actually met the goal of FF (to win in the year you are playing), then it would prove the obvious; AJ/Wayne won more leagues for more people than McCoy/Spiller, all things being equal. SO in that sense, the "shark move" as people like to call it last year was clearly "I see what is going on here with these player this year and Wayne is gold, AJ is the man in Houston, Spiller and McCoy are both riskier. There's nothing not to understand about that. In the words of the famous/infamous Herm Edwards...you play to win the game and if you didn't see last year that Wayne and Aj were the legit weekly better threats over McCoy/Spiller, week in and week out, then you were not trying to win. All that being said, Do I blame a person for not taking those trades? No. But I AM saying, your better move was to take the trade IF what you really wanted to do was win last year.

Seems to me that the RBs in question outscored the WRs in the vast majority of leagues in weeks 16 and 17. How would scoring less in his championship game help him win?

You have to get to the championship game before you can win it. Over the season both AJ and Wayne outscored McCoy and Spiller. And McCoy didn't help anyone get to their championship game by being out weeks 12-15. Then, of course, there are other factors such as line-up requirements. In all of my leagues out of those 4 players I only own AJ. It's a start 2RB/3WR PPR. For that league, I think AJ is the best person to own.

 

[Sweet Love]

andre johnson doesn't seem to know where the end zone is.

He was never the TD threat I assumed he'd be. His talent is on par with Calvin, IMO, but for the number of targets he gets he doesn't translate a very high percentage into TD's like I think he should.

Why is that? I don't get it...he is big, fast and has great hands. Many WRs with much less in the aforementioned tangibles have been better red zone threats. You'd think for how good he is and how many targets he gets, he would at least randomly stumble upon a 10TD season...

 

[meyerj31]

andre johnson doesn't seem to know where the end zone is.

He was never the TD threat I assumed he'd be. His talent is on par with Calvin, IMO, but for the number of targets he gets he doesn't translate a very high percentage into TD's like I think he should.

Why is that? I don't get it...he is big, fast and has great hands. Many WRs with much less in the aforementioned tangibles have been better red zone threats. You'd think for how good he is and how many targets he gets, he would at least randomly stumble upon a 10TD season...

This is a matter of scheme....

Here's an article from a couple years ago. This is just an example. Notice how AJ had 24% of team targets (good for 10th in the league) but is not even on the list for most red-zone targets (outside of top 20). Houston has made a habit of focusing elsewhere for pushing it in the end-zone. I find it amazing that Mike Williams and Earl Bennet got more red-zone targets than AJ that year.

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/09000d5d81fe983e/article/targets-and-redzone-looks-imperative-to-wr-success

Very unfair to say he can't score TDs. If Houston didn't have a great offensive line for the past 5 years then he likely would have gotten more TD looks, because otherwise they just pound the ball in the end-zone. If you can do that, why throw it? The field is so compressed down there that without a Rodgers or Brady those plays are more risky. If I could run it in every time I'm on the 5-yard line and score then I'm never going to throw the ball that close to the end-zone.

Schaub is getting better and the offensive line is getting worse, so I could see him getting a few more red-zone looks this year. I really like AJ in 2013.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Colston is like a slightly better Keenan McCardell: a guy no one is ever excited to get on your team, but almost always puts up very solid WR2 numbers overall, with stretches of WR1 production.