The *perfect* 2005 FF Draft (1 Viewer)

[Keys Myaths]

Prior to the ENDLESS talk about draft strategies in the offseason, I decided to spend 5 hours (yes, 5 hours), and input the starters at each position (for 2005) into Draft Dominator. What purpose does this serve?

Well, we're going to find out how redrafts *should've* gone this past year...knowing exactly what we know now.

This is a "perfect" draft, based solely off VBD and the best value pick from Draft Dominator. (With draft other teams by ADP turned OFF). If you aren't a subscriber and don't know what that is...basically, it's 12 teams, with the end of season stats in front of them, taking the best player possible at each draft position.

For each draft position (I'll update this as I get more stats into DD...I've only got the top 15 QBs, the top 30 RBs, the top 15 WRs, and the top 10 TEs in there right now), I'll explain who you *should've* taken...then in parentheses, that player's ADP for redrafts before this season started...then in brackets [these things], the player that *was* usually drafted at that ADP.



What can we learn? A lot. Did stud RB theory hold up this year? When was too early to take a QB? Is Gates really worth a second round selection if he can duplicate this year? What type of player is a good risk? What type of player is a bad risk? Plus, a ton more, hopefully that you guys come up with along the way...

Well, let's see: (Standard scoring, start QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/DST/K)



FIRST ROUND:

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02) [LaDainian Tomlinson]

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01) [shaun Alexander]

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01) [Priest Holmes]

1.04: Tiki Barber, RB (2.05) [Edgerrin James]

1.05: Edgerrin James, RB (1.04) [Peyton Manning]

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB (1.09) [Willis McGahee]

1.07: Steve Smith, WR (4.05) [Deuce McAllister]

1.08: Rudi Johnson, RB (2.06) [Domanick Davis]

1.09: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (6.01) [Clinton Portis]

1.10: Lamont Jordan, RB (3.02) [Jamal Lewis]

1.11: Antonio Gates, TE (3.11) [Corey Dillon]

1.12: Santana Moss, WR (9.05) [Kevin Jones]



SECOND ROUND:

2.01: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11) [Randy Moss]



2.02: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03) [Daunte Culpepper]



2.03: Chad Johnson, WR (3.01) [Julius Jones]

2.04: Steven Jackson, RB (2.12)[Ahman Green]

2.05: Torry Holt, WR (2.07) [Tiki Barber]

2.06: Joey Galloway, WR (17.01) [Rudi Johnson]

2.07: Chris Chambers, WR (6.10) [Torry Holt]

2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR (2.11) [Curtis Martin]

2.09: Anquan Boldin, WR (5.02) [brian Westbrook]



2.10: Warrick Dunn, RB (4.08) [Terrell Owens]



2.11: Reuben Droughns, RB (9.01) [Marvin Harrison]



2.12: Carson Palmer, QB (7.06) [steven Jackson]

THIRD ROUND:

3.01: Willis McGahee, RB (1.06) [Chad Johnson]

3.02: Tom Brady, QB (6.02) [Lamont Jordan]

3.03: Hines Ward, WR (3.09) [Donovan McNabb]

3.04: Peyton Manning, QB (1.05) [Javon Walker]

3.05: Willie Parker, RB (14.06) [Joe Horn]



3.06: Corey Dillon, RB (1.11) [Andre Johnson]

3.07: Brian Westbrook, RB (2.09) [Tony Gonzalez]

3.08: Domanick Davis, RB (1.08) [Reggie Wayne]



3.09: Plaxico Burress, WR (8.02) [Hines Ward]



3.10: Chris Brown, RB (4.11) [Carnell Williams]

3.11: Carnell Williams, RB (3.10) [Antonio Gates]

3.12: Julius Jones, RB (2.03) [Darrell Jackson]



FOURTH ROUND:

4.01: Terry Glenn, WR (17.12) [Nate Burleson]

4.02: Donald Driver, WR(5.11) [J.J. Arrington]

4.03: Randy Moss, WR (2.01) [Marc Bulger]

4.04: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR (9.10) [Roy Williams]

4.05: Rod Smith, WR (8.11) [steve Smith]



4.06: Tatum Bell, RB (4.10) [Fred Taylor]

4.07: Keenan McCardell, WR (11.05) [Michael Clayton]

4.08: Eddie Kennison, WR (9.06) [Warrick Dunn]

4.09: Ronnie Brown, RB (4.12) [Trent Green]

4.10: Donte Stallworth, WR (10.09) [Tatum Bell]

4.11: Jimmy Smith, WR (7.01) [Chris Brown]

4.12: DeShaun Foster, RB (5.01) [Ronnie Brown]



FIFTH ROUND:

5.01: Jeremy Shockey, TE (6.04) [DeShaun Foster]

5.02: Reggie Wayne, WR (3.08) [Anquan Boldin]

5.03: Todd Heap, TE (6.09) [Drew Bennett]

5.04: Jamal Lewis, RB (1.10) [Michael Bennett]

5.05: Deion Branch, WR (7.07) [Jason Witten]

5.06: Stephen Davis, RB (11.10) [Kerry Collins]

5.07: Ricky Williams, RB (9.07) [Michael Vick]

5.08: Alge Crumpler, TE (6.05) [Laverneus Coles]

5.09: Eli Manning, QB (13.08) [brett Farve]

5.10: Matt Hasselbeck, QB (6.07) [Jerry Porter]

5.11: Mewelde Moore, RB (8.05) [Donald Driver]

5.12: Curtis Martin, RB (2.08) [Kevan Barlow]

Sixth Round



6.01: Chris Cooley, TE (13.12) [Larry Fitzgerald]



6.02: Joe Jurevicius (21.03) [Tom Brady]



6.03: Jason Witten (5.05) [Cedric Benson]



6.04: Fred Taylor (4.06) [Jeremy Shockey]



6.05: Kevin Jones (1.12) [Alge Crumpler]



6.06: Antonio Bryant (13.02) [issac Bruce]



6.07: Kevin Curtis (14.07) [Matt Hasselbeck]



6.08: Samkon Gado (----) [Larry Johnson]



6.09: Jerry Porter (5.10) [Todd Heap]



6.10: Derrick Mason (6.12) [Chris Chambers]



6.11: Priest Holmes (1.03) [Derrick Mason]

6.12: Lee Evans (8.01) [Derrick Mason]

Seventh Round:

7.01: Keyshawn Johnson (11.11) [Jimmy Smith]

7.02: Roy Williams (4.04) [Ashley Lelie]



7.03: Laverneus Coles (5.08) [Mike Anderson]



7.04: Tony Gonzalez (3.07) [Duce Staley]

7.05: Drew Brees (8.06) [Carson Palmer]



7.06: Drew Bledsoe (13.06) [Deion Branch]

7.07: Kevan Barlow (5.12) [Jake Plummer]

7.08: Terrell Owens (2.10) [Travis Henry]

7.09: Marion Barber (----) [Dallas Clark]



7.10: Ernest Wilford (-----) [Aaron Brooks]

7.11: Amani Toomer (12.07) [Eric Moulds]

7.12: Michael Vick (5.07) [Lee Evans]



Breaking this down by round, into number of each position actually taken vs. positions that *should've* been taken each round:

1st Round: ADP had 11 RBs, 1 QB. Perfect draft had 8 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE.

2nd Round: ADP: 7 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 QB. Perfect Draft: 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 QB.

3rd Round: ADP: 2 RBs, 7 WRs, 1 TE, 1 QB. Perfect Draft: 2 QB, 8 RB, 2 WR

4th Round: ADP: 6 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 QBs. Perfect Draft: 9 WRs, 3 RBs.

5th Round: ADP: 3 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE, 3 QBs. Perfect Draft: 5 RBs, 2 WRs, 3 TEs, 2 QBs,

What's interesting?

According to this, too many running backs are possibly being taken early in drafts.

Possibly.

I know this is going to get a few harsh responses...but this thread was designed to explore things we haven't explored before...so let's do that.

I'm going to bold it:



Too many running backs are possibly being taken early in drafts.

In the first two rounds, ADP has 18 RBs off the board, where the perfect draft has 13. On the flip side, ADP has 4 WRs off the board, while the perfect draft had 9.

Does this mean anything? Maybe, maybe not. But, for those of you in start 3 WR leagues, you might want to take a step back on this one.

 

[iSnitch]

So McGahee was the biggest bust you listed and LJ was the biggest steal? If you're in a TE required league then IMO Gates is absolutely worth a late second/early third round pick.

 

[Keys Myaths]

So McGahee was the biggest bust you listed and LJ was the biggest steal?

If you're in a TE required league then IMO Gates is absolutely worth a late second/early third round pick.

I think it depends on how you define "steal".Joey Galloway at an ADP of 17.01 looks pretty good to me.

But Gates in the first round literally shocked me. That's honestly what I think will jump out at most people.

McGahee isn't the biggest bust, though. He was drafted a round too early. If that's the worst you did, that's not horrible.

If you drafted Jamal Lewis that early, you were hurting...badly.

 

[iSnitch]

So McGahee was the biggest bust you listed and LJ was the biggest steal? 

If you're in a TE required league then IMO Gates is absolutely worth a late second/early third round pick.

I think it depends on how you define "steal".Joey Galloway at an ADP of 17.01 looks pretty good to me.

But Gates in the first round literally shocked me. That's honestly what I think will jump out at most people.

McGahee isn't the biggest bust, though. He was drafted a round too early. If that's the worst you did, that's not horrible.

If you drafted Jamal Lewis that early, you were hurting...badly.

Oh, I didn't draft those guys, I was just saying some of the busts you had in bold. Lewis still doesn't rank in the top two rounds, when you get to his and Kevin Jones' levels then those will be the biggest busts. I missed on Galloway, even better steal. Yes, Gates is amazingly good.

 

[Maelstrom]

I will be watching this thread with interest. I had considered doing something like this, so I appreciate the amount of work you are putting in! Gates is a bit of a suprise, but not horribly when you know the stats. I think one of the interesting things so far is that the first QB is 2.10 and (as we know) it wasn't Manning (or Culpepper, who will be WAY down, if you go that far). I did expect that though, and rarely draft a QB early, but there was a lot of Manning/Culpepper hype in the preseason.

 

[iSnitch]

Of the 'stud' wr's who were drafted early, it looks like the person got good value with CJ, Holt and Harrison. TO was on pace before his suspension and Moss just busted. But before the season people were questioning Moss' ability to play on grass (no pun). So Fitz and Smith finished better, it still looks smart to grab a stud wr early in the draft.

 

[suspected]

Good thread, I do this using my leagues scoring system each year. It would also be helpful to include the actual value numbers in parentheses to help us see where the dropoffs occur and how large they are. This can impact draft strategy. Also as mentioned in other threads looking at VBD numbers in isolation doesn't necessarily when players "should" be drafted, but is still a very useful analysis.Edit to add: One useful tweak is to calculatate avg points per game started (exclude week 17), extrapolate this over a 16 week season, and use this as input. Doing this you'll see the impact on players like Holt (injury) and LJ (did not start entire season).

 

[jeff_eaglz]

Keys - so this is the "massive" post you were working on - good thought. I'll be watching this as well.Something to keep in mind before everyone goes crazy over Gates being in Round 1 - some very high preseason picks were lost for the season (Ahman Green, Deuce McAllister) that may have pushed him to Round 2. Injuries are a contributor to boosting pick location, but values certainly will be found. It does validate my grabbing Larry Fitzgerald early, though Keys you may want to put the scoring system you used for valuations, in particular PPR or not, in your post as you edit it.All in all, great idea.

 

[nerangers]

Love analysis right after the regular season ends....do it while it is fresh in your mind!Knowing the scoring system would come in handy. PPR can make a big difference in the listing for those that use it. We are thinking of adding .5 pts per reception this year, so I am interested in seeing how WRs move up due to it.At the end of the season, I usually go to our list of players in the league and grab all of the players and sort on Fantasy Points, then check to see what went wrong! LOL Injuries definitely change the order and can fluctuate where a few players finished off. Sometimes I will project where they would have finished (using the stats based on what they did prior to being hurt) if not hurt to see how the list would shake out as well. I look forward to book marking and checking back.

 

[Anon]

Good Stuff Can I assume 12 team redraft, start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF and a baseline of "Joes" or Worst starter ?Since your doing it in DD perhaps you could get Bruce to post the final stats file, so we could download it for any league specific tweaks.

 

[Lefty27]

Very interesting. I'll have to study it more.Champ in one league had three off this list (Manning, Rudi J & LJ) and champ in the other league had 4 (Rudi J, S Moss, S Smith, & Chad Johnson). My guess is that in most leagues the champs had at least 3 guys off this list - unless in larger leagues.

 

[bostonfred]

And this is why people say it takes skill to get the playoffs, but once you're in the playoffs, it takes luck. Imagine a "dream team" with Tomlinson, Portis, Steven Jackson, SMoss, Holt, Galloway and Gates. Here's how they would have done in week 15:

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB 85 yds, 0 TD

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB 116 yds, 0 TD

2.03: Steven Jackson, RB 82 yds, 0 TD

1.12: Santana Moss, WR 73 yds, 0 TD

2.05: Torry Holt, WR[ 16 yds, 1 TD

2.06: Joey Galloway, WR 38 yds, 0 TD

1.11: Antonio Gates, TE 29 yds, 0 TD

In fact, here are all of the mediocre or worse games in red:

Week 15

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB 172 yds, 1 TD

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB 184 yds, 2 TD

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB 85 yds, 0 TD

1.04: Tiki Barber, RB 249 yds, 2 TD

1.05: Edgerrin James, RB 45 yds, 1 TD

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB 116 yds, 0 TD

1.07: Rudi Johnson, RB 131 yds, 2 TD

1.08: Lamont Jordan, RB 172 yds, 0 TD

1.09: Steve Smith, WR 85 yds, 2 TD

1.10: Larry Fitzgerald, WR 85 yds, 1 TD

1.11: Antonio Gates, TE 29 yds, 0 TD

1.12: Santana Moss, WR 73 yds, 0 TD

2.01: Thomas Jones, RB 94 yds, 1 TD

2.02: Mike Anderson, RB 101 yds, 2 TD

2.03: Steven Jackson, RB 82 yds, 0 TD

2.04: Chad Johnson, WR 99 yds, 1 TD

2.05: Torry Holt, WR 16 yds, 1 TD

2.06: Joey Galloway, WR 38 yds, 0 TD2.07: Chris Chambers, WR 34 yds, 1 TD

2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR 8 rec 135

2.09: Warrick Dunn, RB 90 yds, 0 TD

2.10: Carson Palmer, QB 274/3/2

2.11: Willis McGahee, RB 55 yds, 1 TD

2.12: Reuben Droughns, RB 84 yds, 0 TD

Week 16

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB 145 yds, 3 TD

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB 179 yds, 2 TD

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB 67 yds, 0 TD

1.04: Tiki Barber, RB 129 yds, 0 TD

1.05: Edgerrin James, RB 55 yds, 0 TD

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB 118 yd, 1 TD

[b]1.07: Rudi Johnson, RB 96 yds, 0 TD

1.08: Lamont Jordan, RB 0 yds, 0 TD

1.09: Steve Smith, WR 18 yds, 0 TD

1.10: Larry Fitzgerald, WR 93 yds, 1 TD

1.11: Antonio Gates, TE 52 yds, 1 TD

1.12: Santana Moss, WR 160 yds, 3 TD

2.01: Thomas Jones, RB 106 yds, 1 TD

2.02: Mike Anderson, RB 66 yds, 1 TD

2.03: Steven Jackson, RB 49 yds, 1 TD

2.04: Chad Johnson, WR 117 yds, 1 TD

2.05: Torry Holt, WR 163 yds, 1 TD

2.06: Joey Galloway, WR 97 yds, 0 TD

2.07: Chris Chambers, WR 51 yds, 2 TD

2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR 0 rec 0 yds

2.09: Warrick Dunn, RB 64 yds, 0 TD

2.10: Carson Palmer, QB 266/2/2

[b]2.11: Willis McGahee, RB 66 yds, 0 TD

2.12: Reuben Droughns, RB 65 yds, 0 TD

 

[Harpua]

Good Stuff

Can I assume 12 team redraft, start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF and a baseline of "Joes" or Worst starter ?

Since your doing it in DD perhaps you could get Bruce to post the final stats file, so we could download it for any league specific tweaks.

thats a good idea

 

[Keys Myaths]

Good Stuff

Can I assume 12 team redraft, start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF and a baseline of "Joes" or Worst starter ?

Since your doing it in DD perhaps you could get Bruce to post the final stats file, so we could download it for any league specific tweaks.

thats a good idea

Once I get done with everyone's stats, I will. Remember, I'm only about halfway done with everyone...But yeah, that's a good idea. I'll ask him.

And yes, this is standard scoring, start 3 WR. (DD Defaults)

 

[Keys Myaths]

And since probably half of you start 2 WRs, not 3, here's what that would look like:



FIRST ROUND:

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02)

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01)

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01)

1.04: Tiki Barber, RB (2.05)

1.05: Edgerrin James, RB (1.04)

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB (1.09)

1.07: Rudi Johnson, RB (2.06)

1.08: Lamont Jordan, RB (3.02)

1.09: Steve Smith, WR (4.05)

1.10: Antonio Gates, TE (3.11)

1.11: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11)

1.12: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03)



SECOND ROUND:

2.01: Steven Jackson, RB (2.12)



2.02: Warrick Dunn, RB (4.08)

2.03: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (6.01)

2.04: Carson Palmer, QB (7.06)



2.05: Willis McGahee, RB (1.06)



2.06: Reuben Droughns, RB (9.01)

2.07: Willie Parker, RB (14.06)



2.08: Corey Dillon, RB (1.11)

2.09: Tom Brady, QB (6.02)

2.10: Santana Moss, WR (9.05)

2.11: Chad Johnson, WR (3.01)

2.12: Domanick Davis, RB (1.08)

Four less WRs taken in this one...this has been updated in the first post.

Upon request, I can do one without a starting TE requirement.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Very interesting. I'll have to study it more.

Champ in one league had three off this list (Manning, Rudi J & LJ) and champ in the other league had 4 (Rudi J, S Moss, S Smith, & Chad Johnson). My guess is that in most leagues the champs had at least 3 guys off this list - unless in larger leagues.

I think it clearly states the value...not only of someone like Larry Johnson, but even people like Mike Anderson and Willie Parker, who were selected very late in drafts, and ended up being first/second round picks.Those were huge.

Also, I think it tells you not to mess around when drafting in the first half of the first round. Those guys are up there for a reason. They're very good, and pretty consistent.

I'll respond to more of these later when I return.

 

[elpasotexan]

Good job!

 

[kutta]

Very interesting. I'll have to study it more.

Champ in one league had three off this list (Manning, Rudi J & LJ) and champ in the other league had 4 (Rudi J, S Moss, S Smith, & Chad Johnson). My guess is that in most leagues the champs had at least 3 guys off this list - unless in larger leagues.

I had LJ, Gates, and Anderson, which is 3 from of the top 12. But I feel "lucky" as I never expected those guys to perform how they did, especially Anderson. Interesting that in the top 18, there are 10 RB's and 8 WR's. Not quite the kind of distribution one would expect.

 

[kutta]

@ all you guys who took Manning as a top 5 pick, completing ignoring history. You got exactly what you deserved.

Very insightful. Thanks.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

Very interesting. I'll have to study it more.

Champ in one league had three off this list (Manning, Rudi J & LJ) and champ in the other league had 4 (Rudi J, S Moss, S Smith, & Chad Johnson). My guess is that in most leagues the champs had at least 3 guys off this list - unless in larger leagues.

I had LJ, Gates, and Anderson, which is 3 from of the top 12. But I feel "lucky" as I never expected those guys to perform how they did, especially Anderson. Interesting that in the top 18, there are 10 RB's and 8 WR's. Not quite the kind of distribution one would expect.

Don't be misled - again, there are injures to account for - Deuce McAllister, Priest Holmes, Ahman Green all absent.Time for an injury-based sleepers list.

 

[Angry Beavers]

for when i have time

 

[Keys Myaths]

for when i have time

Yeah. I'm going to have tonight to pour over this stuff some more, and put a third and possibly fourth round up...hopefully, that can help even more.

 

[FFdork]

@ all you guys who took Manning as a top 5 pick, completing ignoring history. You got exactly what you deserved.

Very insightful. Thanks.

Yes, I second that. Thanks for furthering the discussion. I actually did take Peyton as the 5th pick overall. I use VBD, and I made what I thought were reasonable projections for him. As such, he was the #3 player on my board. I hate taking a QB anywhere in the early rounds, but after the top 3 RBs Peyton represented a safe pick. I was pretty disappointed early in the year, but as the number of 1st and 2nd round busts came into focus, I was pretty happy. There were a lot of landmines to dodge in this years draft.

What's my point? With a few notable exceptions over the years (e.g. Priest 2005), I don't generally get into the business of anticipating injuries. On the flip side though, Peyton is about as low-risk for injury as it gets. As such, he probably deserves a 'bump' over riskier RBs/WRs, ESPECIALLY guys like McGahee, JJ, and K Jones who we were projecting based on limited seasons.

IMO your rankings should take into account the rare guy who is as close as it gets to a guarantee to play (unless his team goes 14-0 ). I seriously doubt I'll be taking a QB in the first round again, but if Peyton falls enough I'll snap him up in a second, especially depending on what happens with Edge.

P.S. Thanks for the hard work to stimulate discussion Keys. It helps me stave off the depression that the end of the fantasy season brings

 

[DropKick]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. From the pat yourself on the back postings, I think I had a near perfect draft in one league this year.Going into the draft, I felt Jordan would be available in the 3rd or even later since he had never been a starter; that Steve Smith would slide coming off a broken leg; that a quality QB would be available in rounds 6-8 (delighted to get Palmer); and the upside of Larry Johnson warranted a relatively early pick.1) Alexander2) Holt3) Jordan4) Fitzgerald 5) Steve Smith6) Larry Johnson7) Carson Palmer8) Mewelde Moore9) TJ HoushAs it turned out (injuries, etc.), this group was almost unbeatable. Started the season with Alexander/Jordan - finished with Alexander/Johnson. Receivers were Holt, Fitz and Steve Smith with Houshmanzedah covering byes and Holt's injury. The first seven players drafted fall into the first two rounds of your "perfect" draft. After that, I'm basically drafting for depth.I've had my share of bad drafts but damn its fun when a plan comes together.

 

[kutta]

Very interesting. I'll have to study it more.

Champ in one league had three off this list (Manning, Rudi J & LJ) and champ in the other league had 4 (Rudi J, S Moss, S Smith, & Chad Johnson). My guess is that in most leagues the champs had at least 3 guys off this list - unless in larger leagues.

I had LJ, Gates, and Anderson, which is 3 from of the top 12. But I feel "lucky" as I never expected those guys to perform how they did, especially Anderson. Interesting that in the top 18, there are 10 RB's and 8 WR's. Not quite the kind of distribution one would expect.

Don't be misled - again, there are injures to account for - Deuce McAllister, Priest Holmes, Ahman Green all absent.Time for an injury-based sleepers list.

I think Deuce is the only legitimate guy you bring up. Priest is not on the list, but LJ is, so if Priest was healthy, he would take the place of LJ. Green was not doing anything before his injury (weekly scores of 9,9, 8, 5, 0, 0, 6) before going out for the year.So I don't think anyone is being misled. The injuries you speak of might have added one more RB into the top 24. But you are forgetting that TO was out also, so if we factored him back in, we are back to where we started.

 

[Team Legacy]

Keys, great stuff.Can you make one with WCOFF scoring??Basically, adding the 4TH wideout / 3rd RB or 2nd TE as a FLEX.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

Very interesting. I'll have to study it more.

Champ in one league had three off this list (Manning, Rudi J & LJ) and champ in the other league had 4 (Rudi J, S Moss, S Smith, & Chad Johnson). My guess is that in most leagues the champs had at least 3 guys off this list - unless in larger leagues.

I had LJ, Gates, and Anderson, which is 3 from of the top 12. But I feel "lucky" as I never expected those guys to perform how they did, especially Anderson. Interesting that in the top 18, there are 10 RB's and 8 WR's. Not quite the kind of distribution one would expect.

Don't be misled - again, there are injures to account for - Deuce McAllister, Priest Holmes, Ahman Green all absent.Time for an injury-based sleepers list.

I think Deuce is the only legitimate guy you bring up. Priest is not on the list, but LJ is, so if Priest was healthy, he would take the place of LJ. Green was not doing anything before his injury (weekly scores of 9,9, 8, 5, 0, 0, 6) before going out for the year.So I don't think anyone is being misled. The injuries you speak of might have added one more RB into the top 24. But you are forgetting that TO was out also, so if we factored him back in, we are back to where we started.

My point is that in August, those 3 were Top 10 picks (at least Top 10 RBs). The fact that WRs have gone up in the rankings should not surprise anyone due to (1) injuries to prominent RBs and (2) the onset of multiple RBBCs.

 

[Sinrman]

And this is why people say it takes skill to get the playoffs, but once you're in the playoffs, it takes luck. Imagine a "dream team" with Tomlinson, Portis, Steven Jackson, SMoss, Holt, Galloway and Gates. Here's how they would have done in week 15:

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB 85 yds, 0 TD

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB 116 yds, 0 TD

2.03: Steven Jackson, RB 82 yds, 0 TD

1.12: Santana Moss, WR 73 yds, 0 TD

2.05: Torry Holt, WR[ 16 yds, 1 TD

2.06: Joey Galloway, WR 38 yds, 0 TD

1.11: Antonio Gates, TE 29 yds, 0 TD

In fact, here are all of the mediocre or worse games in red:

Week 15

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB 172 yds, 1 TD

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB 184 yds, 2 TD

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB 85 yds, 0 TD

1.04: Tiki Barber, RB 249 yds, 2 TD

1.05: Edgerrin James, RB 45 yds, 1 TD

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB 116 yds, 0 TD

1.07: Rudi Johnson, RB 131 yds, 2 TD

1.08: Lamont Jordan, RB 172 yds, 0 TD

1.09: Steve Smith, WR 85 yds, 2 TD

1.10: Larry Fitzgerald, WR 85 yds, 1 TD

1.11: Antonio Gates, TE 29 yds, 0 TD

1.12: Santana Moss, WR 73 yds, 0 TD

2.01: Thomas Jones, RB 94 yds, 1 TD

2.02: Mike Anderson, RB 101 yds, 2 TD

2.03: Steven Jackson, RB 82 yds, 0 TD

2.04: Chad Johnson, WR 99 yds, 1 TD

2.05: Torry Holt, WR 16 yds, 1 TD

2.06: Joey Galloway, WR 38 yds, 0 TD2.07: Chris Chambers, WR 34 yds, 1 TD

2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR 8 rec 135

2.09: Warrick Dunn, RB 90 yds, 0 TD

2.10: Carson Palmer, QB 274/3/2

2.11: Willis McGahee, RB 55 yds, 1 TD

2.12: Reuben Droughns, RB 84 yds, 0 TD

Week 16

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB 145 yds, 3 TD

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB 179 yds, 2 TD

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB 67 yds, 0 TD

1.04: Tiki Barber, RB 129 yds, 0 TD

1.05: Edgerrin James, RB 55 yds, 0 TD

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB 118 yd, 1 TD

[b]1.07: Rudi Johnson, RB 96 yds, 0 TD

1.08: Lamont Jordan, RB 0 yds, 0 TD

1.09: Steve Smith, WR 18 yds, 0 TD

1.10: Larry Fitzgerald, WR 93 yds, 1 TD

1.11: Antonio Gates, TE 52 yds, 1 TD

1.12: Santana Moss, WR 160 yds, 3 TD

2.01: Thomas Jones, RB 106 yds, 1 TD

2.02: Mike Anderson, RB 66 yds, 1 TD

2.03: Steven Jackson, RB 49 yds, 1 TD

2.04: Chad Johnson, WR 117 yds, 1 TD

2.05: Torry Holt, WR 163 yds, 1 TD

2.06: Joey Galloway, WR 97 yds, 0 TD

2.07: Chris Chambers, WR 51 yds, 2 TD

2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR 0 rec 0 yds

2.09: Warrick Dunn, RB 64 yds, 0 TD

2.10: Carson Palmer, QB 266/2/2

[b]2.11: Willis McGahee, RB 66 yds, 0 TD

2.12: Reuben Droughns, RB 65 yds, 0 TD

Which goes on to prove that the first two or three rounds don't make a championship team. They can help you win a lot of games and hopefully get you into the playoffs, but don't assure you of a championship. Exactly why we all must work doubly hard to have solid drafts throughout, not just the first few rounds...VALUE VALUE VALUE!

 

[kutta]

Very interesting. I'll have to study it more.

Champ in one league had three off this list (Manning, Rudi J & LJ) and champ in the other league had 4 (Rudi J, S Moss, S Smith, & Chad Johnson). My guess is that in most leagues the champs had at least 3 guys off this list - unless in larger leagues.

I had LJ, Gates, and Anderson, which is 3 from of the top 12. But I feel "lucky" as I never expected those guys to perform how they did, especially Anderson. Interesting that in the top 18, there are 10 RB's and 8 WR's. Not quite the kind of distribution one would expect.

Don't be misled - again, there are injures to account for - Deuce McAllister, Priest Holmes, Ahman Green all absent.Time for an injury-based sleepers list.

I think Deuce is the only legitimate guy you bring up. Priest is not on the list, but LJ is, so if Priest was healthy, he would take the place of LJ. Green was not doing anything before his injury (weekly scores of 9,9, 8, 5, 0, 0, 6) before going out for the year.So I don't think anyone is being misled. The injuries you speak of might have added one more RB into the top 24. But you are forgetting that TO was out also, so if we factored him back in, we are back to where we started.

My point is that in August, those 3 were Top 10 picks (at least Top 10 RBs). The fact that WRs have gone up in the rankings should not surprise anyone due to (1) injuries to prominent RBs and (2) the onset of multiple RBBCs.

I understand your point. My point is that the ratio of RB's to WR's in the top 24 at the end of the year is not skewed based on injuries. It is based on performance. The RB's you mentioned would not have affected the end of the year rankings. Deuce might have, but he would have been offset by TO.

 

[Boulder Toads]

Upon request, I can do one without a starting TE requirement.

Keys - Great stuff and I appreciate all your hard work! Your analysis works well for one of my leagues, but I'd be curious if you could show the results for a league without a starting TE requirement. I am interested to see how valuable it would be to draft Gates, Gonzo, etc. when starting 3WR when TE can be used as a WR. For example, a 12-teamer starting QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WRorTE/K/DEF with no PPR. 1pt/10yds rush/rec and 1pt/25yds pass - all TDs = 6pts.

I did a mid-season 'perfect draft' article for our league (albeit rough in comparison to your analysis) and I think this process shows how important rounds 4-8 really are for a draft...I also respect how much time your analysis must have taken...

TOADS

 

[Wilbur Wood]

Prior to the ENDLESS talk about draft strategies in the offseason, I decided to spend 5 hours (yes, 5 hours), and input the starters at each position (for 2005) into Draft Dominator. What purpose does this serve?

Well, we're going to find out how redrafts *should've* gone this past year...knowing exactly what we know now.

This is a "perfect" draft, based solely off VBD and the best value pick from Draft Dominator. (With draft other teams by ADP turned OFF). If you aren't a subscriber and don't know what that is...basically, it's 12 teams, with the end of season stats in front of them, taking the best player possible at each draft position.

For each draft position (I'll update this as I get more stats into DD...I've only got the top 15 QBs, the top 30 RBs, the top 15 WRs, and the top 10 TEs in there right now), I'll explain who you *should've* taken...then in parentheses, that player's ADP for redrafts before this season started...then in brackets [these things], the player that *was* usually drafted at that ADP.



What can we learn? A lot. Did stud RB theory hold up this year? When was too early to take a QB? Is Gates really worth a second round selection if he can duplicate this year? What type of player is a good risk? What type of player is a bad risk? Plus, a ton more, hopefully that you guys come up with along the way...

Well, let's see: (Standard scoring, start QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/DST/K)



FIRST ROUND:

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02) [LaDainian Tomlinson]

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01) [shaun Alexander]

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01) [Priest Holmes]

1.04: Tiki Barber, RB (2.05) [Edgerrin James]

1.05: Edgerrin James, RB (1.04) [Peyton Manning]

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB (1.09) [Willis McGahee]

1.07: Rudi Johnson, RB (2.06) [Deuce McAllister]

1.08: Lamont Jordan, RB (3.02) [Domanick Davis]

1.09: Steve Smith, WR (4.05) [Clinton Portis]

1.10: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (6.01) [Jamal Lewis]

1.11: Antonio Gates, TE (3.11) [Corey Dillon]

1.12: Santana Moss, WR (9.05) [Kevin Jones]



SECOND ROUND:

2.01: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11) [Randy Moss]



2.02: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03) [Daunte Culpepper]

2.03: Steven Jackson, RB (2.12) [Julius Jones]



2.04: Chad Johnson, WR (3.01) [Ahman Green]

2.05: Torry Holt, WR (2.07) [Tiki Barber]

2.06: Joey Galloway, WR (17.01) [Rudi Johnson]

2.07: Chris Chambers, WR (6.10) [Torry Holt]

2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR (2.11) [Curtis Martin]



2.09: Warrick Dunn, RB (4.08) [brian Westbrook]



2.10: Carson Palmer, QB (7.06) [Terrell Owens]



2.11: Willis McGahee, RB (1.06) [Marvin Harrison]



2.12: Reuben Droughns, RB (9.01) [steven Jackson]



And since probably half of you start 2 WRs, not 3, here's what that would look like:



FIRST ROUND:

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02)

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01)

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01)

1.04: Tiki Barber, RB (2.05)

1.05: Edgerrin James, RB (1.04)

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB (1.09)

1.07: Rudi Johnson, RB (2.06)

1.08: Lamont Jordan, RB (3.02)

1.09: Steve Smith, WR (4.05)

1.10: Antonio Gates, TE (3.11)

1.11: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11)

1.12: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03)



SECOND ROUND:

2.01: Steven Jackson, RB (2.12)



2.02: Warrick Dunn, RB (4.08)

2.03: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (6.01)

2.04: Carson Palmer, QB (7.06)



2.05: Willis McGahee, RB (1.06)



2.06: Reuben Droughns, RB (9.01)

2.07: Willie Parker, RB (14.06)



2.08: Corey Dillon, RB (1.11)

2.09: Tom Brady, QB (6.02)

2.10: Santana Moss, WR (9.05)

2.11: Chad Johnson, WR (3.01)

2.12: Domanick Davis, RB (1.08)

Four less WRs taken in this one...

And this took me a lot of time and energy to do...and I know it's a lot to read, so forgive me if I bump this a couple of times along the way. I don't think you guys would mind, given how much I've put into this, but I apologize in advance. Hopefully, you guys can start discussing enough of this to where I don't have to...and I can just keep updating this.

I could only do two rounds, because surprisingly, didn't think this many WRs would go early, so I have to put more final stats in.

And before you ask, yes, I did get permission to use this much subscriber material before proceeding. Joe's fine with it.

Great work, but I see a flaw. How can Larry Fitz grade out at 1.10 and the equally productive (or more so on a PPG basis), Anquan Boldin fall to the 3rd round???Fitz had 103 catches, 1400 yards 10 Tds in 16 games

Boldin had 102 catchers, 1400 yards 7 TDs in 14 games.

Both of the games that Boldin was out were well known in advance and the production of adequate backup players could be added to Boldin's stats. I won 3 Super Bowls this year and Anquan was on 2 of those teams (Fitz was on the 3rd).

 

[Keys Myaths]

Prior to the ENDLESS talk about draft strategies in the offseason, I decided to spend 5 hours (yes, 5 hours), and input the starters at each position (for 2005) into Draft Dominator. What purpose does this serve?

Well, we're going to find out how redrafts *should've* gone this past year...knowing exactly what we know now.

This is a "perfect" draft, based solely off VBD and the best value pick from Draft Dominator. (With draft other teams by ADP turned OFF). If you aren't a subscriber and don't know what that is...basically, it's 12 teams, with the end of season stats in front of them, taking the best player possible at each draft position.

For each draft position (I'll update this as I get more stats into DD...I've only got the top 15 QBs, the top 30 RBs, the top 15 WRs, and the top 10 TEs in there right now), I'll explain who you *should've* taken...then in parentheses, that player's ADP for redrafts before this season started...then in brackets [these things], the player that *was* usually drafted at that ADP.



What can we learn? A lot. Did stud RB theory hold up this year? When was too early to take a QB? Is Gates really worth a second round selection if he can duplicate this year? What type of player is a good risk? What type of player is a bad risk? Plus, a ton more, hopefully that you guys come up with along the way...

Well, let's see: (Standard scoring, start QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/DST/K)



FIRST ROUND:

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02) [LaDainian Tomlinson]

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01) [shaun Alexander]

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01) [Priest Holmes]

1.04: Tiki Barber, RB (2.05) [Edgerrin James]

1.05: Edgerrin James, RB (1.04) [Peyton Manning]

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB (1.09) [Willis McGahee]

1.07: Rudi Johnson, RB (2.06) [Deuce McAllister]

1.08: Lamont Jordan, RB (3.02) [Domanick Davis]

1.09: Steve Smith, WR (4.05) [Clinton Portis]

1.10: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (6.01) [Jamal Lewis]

1.11: Antonio Gates, TE (3.11) [Corey Dillon]

1.12: Santana Moss, WR (9.05) [Kevin Jones]



SECOND ROUND:

2.01: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11) [Randy Moss]



2.02: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03) [Daunte Culpepper]

2.03: Steven Jackson, RB (2.12) [Julius Jones]



2.04: Chad Johnson, WR (3.01) [Ahman Green]

2.05: Torry Holt, WR (2.07) [Tiki Barber]

2.06: Joey Galloway, WR (17.01) [Rudi Johnson]

2.07: Chris Chambers, WR (6.10) [Torry Holt]

2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR (2.11) [Curtis Martin]



2.09: Warrick Dunn, RB (4.08) [brian Westbrook]



2.10: Carson Palmer, QB (7.06) [Terrell Owens]



2.11: Willis McGahee, RB (1.06) [Marvin Harrison]



2.12: Reuben Droughns, RB (9.01) [steven Jackson]



And since probably half of you start 2 WRs, not 3, here's what that would look like:



FIRST ROUND:

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02)

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01)

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01)

1.04: Tiki Barber, RB (2.05)

1.05: Edgerrin James, RB (1.04)

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB (1.09)

1.07: Rudi Johnson, RB (2.06)

1.08: Lamont Jordan, RB (3.02)

1.09: Steve Smith, WR (4.05)

1.10: Antonio Gates, TE (3.11)

1.11: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11)

1.12: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03)



SECOND ROUND:

2.01: Steven Jackson, RB (2.12)



2.02: Warrick Dunn, RB (4.08)

2.03: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (6.01)

2.04: Carson Palmer, QB (7.06)



2.05: Willis McGahee, RB (1.06)



2.06: Reuben Droughns, RB (9.01)

2.07: Willie Parker, RB (14.06)



2.08: Corey Dillon, RB (1.11)

2.09: Tom Brady, QB (6.02)

2.10: Santana Moss, WR (9.05)

2.11: Chad Johnson, WR (3.01)

2.12: Domanick Davis, RB (1.08)

Four less WRs taken in this one...

And this took me a lot of time and energy to do...and I know it's a lot to read, so forgive me if I bump this a couple of times along the way. I don't think you guys would mind, given how much I've put into this, but I apologize in advance. Hopefully, you guys can start discussing enough of this to where I don't have to...and I can just keep updating this.

I could only do two rounds, because surprisingly, didn't think this many WRs would go early, so I have to put more final stats in.

And before you ask, yes, I did get permission to use this much subscriber material before proceeding. Joe's fine with it.

Great work, but I see a flaw. How can Larry Fitz grade out at 1.10 and the equally productive (or more so on a PPG basis), Anquan Boldin fall to the 3rd round???Fitz had 103 catches, 1400 yards 10 Tds in 16 games

Boldin had 102 catchers, 1400 yards 7 TDs in 14 games.

Both of the games that Boldin was out were well known in advance and the production of adequate backup players could be added to Boldin's stats. I won 3 Super Bowls this year and Anquan was on 2 of those teams (Fitz was on the 3rd).

Yes, but look at it this way...with Fitz, you had that high of production all year.With Boldin, you had that production for 14 games, and during 2, you had to scour the WW for someone that wasn't nearly as good.

So, that's now accounted for in the draft.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Keys, great stuff.

Can you make one with WCOFF scoring??

Basically, adding the 4TH wideout / 3rd RB or 2nd TE as a FLEX.

First round:Shaun Alexander

Larry Johnson

LaDainian Tomlinson

Tiki Barber

Edgerrin James

Clinton Portis

Rudi Johnson

Lamont Jordan

Steve Smith

Thomas Jones

Mike Anderson

Larry Fitzgerald

Second Round:

Steven Jackson

Santana Moss

Chad Johnson

Warrick Dunn

Reuben Droughns

Willis McGahee

Willie Parker

Torry Holt

Joey Galloway

Marvin Harrison

Chris Chambers

Corey Dillon

Third Round:

Carson Palmer

Anquan Boldin

Tom Brady

Brian Westbrook

Domanick Davis

That's as far as I can get here.

 

[ggggh7]

Hey thanks for this post. Excellent !!!!Just looking quickly . I see no reason to change the old crusty method of... draft rbs early and often . Looking for value late in the wr/qb/te position. Of course if a rb is "ranked" to low in a drafters opinion then this advantage must be used. (This does not happen very often, but this year it did)I find this information very useful.Looking for value trends. Meaning- using " predictors" while invalid conclusions are more than likely produced.I use SOS. primary target assumptions. - meaning #1 wr is much better than other wrs on team.While "predictors" are guesses.. It was interesting to see them work this year.No one cares. or should they. But here is my draft.1.8 Westbrook Brian RB PHI 2.5 Owens Terrell WR PHI 3.8 Jordan LaMont RB OAK 4.5 Smith Steve WR CAR 5.8 Anderson Mike RB DEN 6.5 Johnson Larry RB KC 7.8 Brady Tom QB NE 8.5 Leftwich Byron QB JAC 9.8 bubba Franks TE GB 10.5 Jurevicius Joe WR SEA 11.8 Kasey K Car 12.5 Frerotte Gus QB MIA 13 Randle El Antwaan WR PIT 14 Miller Heath TE PIT 15 Jones Matt WR JAC 16 Pittman Michael RB TB 17 Hall Dante WR KC 18 Moats Ryan RB PHI 19 J Hanson K Det 20 Stl. Def 21 N.O. Def 22 McCown Josh QB ARI some waivers Henry Chris WR CIN Ind DEF Garrard David QB JAC Walters Troy WR IND Gore Frank RB SF Brown Reggie WR PHI

 

[AB in DC]

Mods: Pin this, please.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Very interesting. I'll have to study it more.

Champ in one league had three off this list (Manning, Rudi J & LJ) and champ in the other league had 4 (Rudi J, S Moss, S Smith, & Chad Johnson). My guess is that in most leagues the champs had at least 3 guys off this list - unless in larger leagues.

I had LJ, Gates, and Anderson, which is 3 from of the top 12. But I feel "lucky" as I never expected those guys to perform how they did, especially Anderson. Interesting that in the top 18, there are 10 RB's and 8 WR's. Not quite the kind of distribution one would expect.

Don't be misled - again, there are injures to account for - Deuce McAllister, Priest Holmes, Ahman Green all absent.Time for an injury-based sleepers list.

I think Deuce is the only legitimate guy you bring up. Priest is not on the list, but LJ is, so if Priest was healthy, he would take the place of LJ. Green was not doing anything before his injury (weekly scores of 9,9, 8, 5, 0, 0, 6) before going out for the year.So I don't think anyone is being misled. The injuries you speak of might have added one more RB into the top 24. But you are forgetting that TO was out also, so if we factored him back in, we are back to where we started.

And Javon Walker, and the disappointment of Andre Johnson, etc. Injuries hit every position, it seems.I'm working on the stats now, so additions should be done late tonight.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

Hey thanks for this post. Excellent !!!!

Just looking quickly . I see no reason to change the old crusty method of... draft rbs early and often .

Looking for value late in the wr/qb/te position. Of course if a rb is "ranked" to low in a drafters opinion then this advantage must be used. (This does not happen very often, but this year it did)

I find this information very useful.

Looking for value trends. Meaning- using " predictors" while invalid conclusions are more than likely produced.

I use SOS.

primary target assumptions. - meaning #1 wr is much better than other wrs on team.

While "predictors" are guesses.. It was interesting to see them work this year.

No one cares. or should they. But here is my draft.

1.8 Westbrook Brian RB PHI

2.5 Owens Terrell WR PHI

3.8 Jordan LaMont RB OAK

4.5 Smith Steve WR CAR

5.8 Anderson Mike RB DEN

6.5 Johnson Larry RB KC

7.8 Brady Tom QB NE

8.5 Leftwich Byron QB JAC

9.8 bubba Franks TE GB

10.5 Jurevicius Joe WR SEA

11.8 Kasey K Car

12.5 Frerotte Gus QB MIA

13 Randle El Antwaan WR PIT

14 Miller Heath TE PIT

15 Jones Matt WR JAC

16 Pittman Michael RB TB

17 Hall Dante WR KC

18 Moats Ryan RB PHI

19 J Hanson K Det

20 Stl. Def

21 N.O. Def

22 McCown Josh QB ARI

some waivers

Henry Chris WR CIN

Ind DEF

Garrard David QB JAC

Walters Troy WR IND

Gore Frank RB SF

Brown Reggie WR PHI

K round 11 - I hope that was a requirement...

 

[Maelstrom]

Mods: Pin this, please.

 

[smcindoe]

Very interesting. I'll have to study it more.

Champ in one league had three off this list (Manning, Rudi J & LJ) and champ in the other league had 4 (Rudi J, S Moss, S Smith, & Chad Johnson). My guess is that in most leagues the champs had at least 3 guys off this list - unless in larger leagues.

My starting QB, both RBs, both WRs, starting TE and a backup RB were all on the list.I missed the playoffs.

Came in third in the consolation round, though!

Sob.

 

[Bradshaw]

Keys, thanks for all the time and effort. Much appreciated. I had a similar thought at the end of our regular season, so I decided to do a Mock Draft on the DD for old times sake, knowing what I know now. Pick #7, 12 teams, 20 rds, PPR...WCOFF scoring. Rd taken in parenthesis:QB's: Palmer(7), Eli(17), Bledsoe(12)RB's: Tiki(1), T. Jones(3), Tatum(8), FWP(16), G. Jones(19), C. Perry(15)WR's: Chad(2), S. Smith(4), Burress(6), Fitz(5), Keyshawn(9), Galloway(10)TE's: Troupe(14), Heath(13)K: Tynes(20)D: Bears(11), Jags(18)The fact that all of these players were available is unreal....especially the WR's. Hindsight is definitely 20/20. I know....I could have waited a few rounds on some of the players (Galloway, Bears, Bledsoe), but there simplay was not value to be had at other positions in the meantime, as hard as it was for me to believe.And also, when I hit the Team Strengths toolbar, my team was ranked last by far and away......ranked worst in QB, TE, K, D, and overall.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Hey guys...I'm putting more numbers in right now, and running them through again to find out round 3 and 4. However, there's been slight increases or decreases in where the earlier players are going (VBD is changing slightly as DD gets more information). These numbers should be fairly accurate, but there might be a slight upshift or downshift as we go here.Honestly, I think this is making it more interesting...but all I'm trying to do is present numbers. Please be patient with me.

 

[Beaumont]

This thread confirms that I just about hit my drafting peak in a 16 team re-draft this year (QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/K/D). Best draft I ever had, despite tabbing Brooks:1.16 16 Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Sat Aug 13 1:22:12 a.m. ET 20052.01 17 Jordan, Lamont OAK RB Sat Aug 13 1:25:12 a.m. ET 20053.16 48 Foster, De'shaun CAR RB Mon Aug 15 9:58:42 a.m. ET 20054.01 49 Smith, Steve CAR WR Mon Aug 15 9:59:35 a.m. ET 20055.16 80 Brooks, Aaron NOS QB Mon Aug 15 5:46:51 p.m. ET 20056.01 81 Cooley, Chris WAS TE Mon Aug 15 5:53:37 p.m. ET 20057.16 112 Moss, Santana WAS WR Tue Aug 16 10:10:45 a.m. ET 20058.01 113 Bills, Buffalo BUF Def Tue Aug 16 10:10:45 a.m. ET 20059.16 144 Lloyd, Brandon SFO WR Tue Aug 16 5:43:15 p.m. ET 200510.01 145 Losman, J.P. BUF QB Tue Aug 16 5:44:34 p.m. ET 200511.16 176 Bryant, Antonio CLE WR Wed Aug 17 7:21:53 a.m. ET 200512.01 177 Galloway, Joey TBB WR Wed Aug 17 7:21:53 a.m. ET 200513.16 208 Brown, Josh SEA PK Wed Aug 17 12:44:17 p.m. ET 200514.01 209 Graham, Shayne CIN PK Wed Aug 17 12:44:17 p.m. ET 200515.16 240 Jones, Greg JAC RB Wed Aug 17 10:21:29 p.m. ET 2005

 

[ggggh7]

[quo

K round 11 - I hope that was a requirement...

yes a taaaaaaaaaaaaaad early . haha.

well when u get your #1,2 ranked wrs and all four rbs ranked in my top 10 plus the two qbs.... i really wanted.. i kinda lost my head and just picked the kicker i wanted .. haha..

 

[jeff_eaglz]

This thread confirms that I just about hit my drafting peak in a 16 team re-draft this year (QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/K/D). Best draft I ever had, despite tabbing Brooks:

1.16 16 Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Sat Aug 13 1:22:12 a.m. ET 2005

2.01 17 Jordan, Lamont OAK RB Sat Aug 13 1:25:12 a.m. ET 2005

3.16 48 Foster, De'shaun CAR RB Mon Aug 15 9:58:42 a.m. ET 2005

4.01 49 Smith, Steve CAR WR Mon Aug 15 9:59:35 a.m. ET 2005

5.16 80 Brooks, Aaron NOS QB Mon Aug 15 5:46:51 p.m. ET 2005

6.01 81 Cooley, Chris WAS TE Mon Aug 15 5:53:37 p.m. ET 2005

7.16 112 Moss, Santana WAS WR Tue Aug 16 10:10:45 a.m. ET 2005

8.01 113 Bills, Buffalo BUF Def Tue Aug 16 10:10:45 a.m. ET 2005

9.16 144 Lloyd, Brandon SFO WR Tue Aug 16 5:43:15 p.m. ET 2005

10.01 145 Losman, J.P. BUF QB Tue Aug 16 5:44:34 p.m. ET 2005

11.16 176 Bryant, Antonio CLE WR Wed Aug 17 7:21:53 a.m. ET 2005

12.01 177 Galloway, Joey TBB WR Wed Aug 17 7:21:53 a.m. ET 2005

13.16 208 Brown, Josh SEA PK Wed Aug 17 12:44:17 p.m. ET 2005

14.01 209 Graham, Shayne CIN PK Wed Aug 17 12:44:17 p.m. ET 2005

15.16 240 Jones, Greg JAC RB Wed Aug 17 10:21:29 p.m. ET 2005

Let's not turn this into a bragging rights thread. It is an excellent discussion thread.And if you peaked with a roster that included JP Losman, I'm sorry....

 

[Beaumont]

And if you peaked with a roster that included JP Losman, I'm sorry....

And I am equally sorry to have disrupted your train of thought Jeff ...

 

[Keys Myaths]

Here's what I'm going to modify the first post to...I've got more final stats in. Sorry, but this is a tedious process, and maybe it's helping that we're only seeing a round or two at a time. Like I said, there's a slight, slight shifting of the first two rounds due to my mistake (actually, realized that I didn't put in enough numbers...won't happen again ).



The biggest mover was actually Anquan Boldin, who sneaks in at 2.09.

By the way, before anyone asks, I am excluding DST/K from this. That would be an exercise in futility here, honestly. Nobody is going to realisticially draft a DST or K in an early part of the draft. If a few of you request it, I'll put the numbers in and run it again...but until you do, I won't.

(Standard scoring, start QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/DST/K)



FIRST ROUND:

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02) [LaDainian Tomlinson]

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01) [shaun Alexander]

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01) [Priest Holmes]

1.04: Tiki Barber, RB (2.05) [Edgerrin James]

1.05: Edgerrin James, RB (1.04) [Peyton Manning]

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB (1.09) [Willis McGahee]

1.07: Steve Smith, WR (4.05) [Deuce McAllister]

1.08: Rudi Johnson, RB (2.06) [Domanick Davis]

1.09: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (6.01) [Clinton Portis]

1.10: Lamont Jordan, RB (3.02) [Jamal Lewis]

1.11: Antonio Gates, TE (3.11) [Corey Dillon]

1.12: Santana Moss, WR (9.05) [Kevin Jones]



SECOND ROUND:

2.01: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11) [Randy Moss]



2.02: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03) [Daunte Culpepper]

2.03: Steven Jackson, RB (2.12) [Julius Jones]



2.04: Chad Johnson, WR (3.01) [Ahman Green]

2.05: Torry Holt, WR (2.07) [Tiki Barber]

2.06: Joey Galloway, WR (17.01) [Rudi Johnson]

2.07: Chris Chambers, WR (6.10) [Torry Holt]

2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR (2.11) [Curtis Martin]

2.09: Anquan Boldin, WR (5.02) [brian Westbrook]



2.10: Warrick Dunn, RB (4.08) [Terrell Owens]



2.11: Reuben Droughns, RB (9.01) [Marvin Harrison]



2.12: Carson Palmer, QB (7.06) [steven Jackson]

THIRD ROUND:

3.01: Willis McGahee, RB (1.06) [Chad Johnson]

3.02: Tom Brady, QB (6.02) [Lamont Jordan]

3.03: Hines Ward, WR (3.09) [Donovan McNabb]

3.04: Willie Parker, RB (14.06) [Javon Walker]



3.05: Corey Dillon, RB (1.11) [Joe Horn]

3.06: Peyton Manning, QB (1.05) [Andre Johnson]

3.07: Brian Westbrook, RB (2.09) [Tony Gonzalez]

3.08: Domanick Davis, RB (1.08) [Reggie Wayne]



3.09: Chris Brown, RB (4.11) [Hines Ward]



3.10: Plaxico Burress, WR (8.02) [Carnell Williams]

3.11: Carnell Williams, RB (3.10) [Antonio Gates]

3.12: Julius Jones, RB (2.03) [Darrell Jackson]

4.01: Terry Glenn, WR (17.12) [Nate Burleson]

4.02: Donald Driver, WR(5.11) [J.J. Arrington]

4.03: Randy Moss, WR (2.01) [Marc Bulger]

4.04: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR (9.10) [Roy Williams]

4.05: Rod Smith, WR (8.11) [steve Smith]



4.06: Tatum Bell, RB (4.10) [Fred Taylor]

4.07: Keenan McCardell, WR (11.05) [Michael Clayton]

4.08: Eddie Kennison, WR (9.06) [Warrick Dunn]

4.09: Donte Stallworth, WR (10.09) [Trent Green]

4.10: Ronnie Brown, RB (4.12) [Tatum Bell]

4.11: Jimmy Smith, WR (7.01) [Chris Brown]

4.12: DeShaun Foster, RB (5.01) [Ronnie Brown]

 

[wannabee]

great job Keys

 

[einstein2u]

ff rook....been following this thread with interest. what is draft dominator? can someone explain please.

 

[wannabee]

ff rook....been following this thread with interest. what is draft dominator? can someone explain please.

go to top left cornerr of this page and click on footballguys.com. there will be articles on this, and other, topics

 

[Keys Myaths]

ff rook....been following this thread with interest. what is draft dominator? can someone explain please.

For this thread, all you need to know is that I'm making the "perfect" draft...meaning, each pick has all knowledge available to them, and knows all knowledge is available to others. So, this is how the draft would've shaped out.As for DD, check out the main page (http://www.footballguys.com), download it, and play around with it. It's a fantastic drafting tool that uses something called Value Based Drafting to get you an edge on your competition.

I can't find the link right now that explains what Value Based Drafting (VBD) is, so hopefully someone can help with that.