Even if I knew Terrell Owens was going to get suspended in the week he got suspended I would still have drafted him sooner than this indicates. Owens was on pace for record highs in catches, yards and TDs before he ended his season. I much rather have someone that performs at a very high level for 8 weeks then someone that produced the same total numbers but over a 16 game stretch.
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The *perfect* 2005 FF Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Keys Myaths
- Start date
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Eighth Round:
8.01: Eric Moulds (7.12) [Plaxico Burress]
8.02: Trent Green (4.09) [Lee Suggs]
8.03: Jake Delhomme (8.10) [Mushin Muhammed]
8.04: Kerry Collins (5.06) [Mewelde Moore]
8.05: Jake Plummer (7.08) [Drew Brees]
8.06: Brett Farve (5.09) [Jerome Bettis]
8.07: Mark Brunell (---) [brandon Stokley]
8.08: Steve McNair (10.10) [T.J. Duckett]
8.09: Brandon Lloyd (12.03) [Jake Delhomme]
8.10: Aaron Brooks (7.11) [Rod Smith]
8.11: Drew Bennett (5.03) [Reuben Droughns]
8.12: Mushin Muhammed (8.04) [Randy McMichael]
8.01: Eric Moulds (7.12) [Plaxico Burress]
8.02: Trent Green (4.09) [Lee Suggs]
8.03: Jake Delhomme (8.10) [Mushin Muhammed]
8.04: Kerry Collins (5.06) [Mewelde Moore]
8.05: Jake Plummer (7.08) [Drew Brees]
8.06: Brett Farve (5.09) [Jerome Bettis]
8.07: Mark Brunell (---) [brandon Stokley]
8.08: Steve McNair (10.10) [T.J. Duckett]
8.09: Brandon Lloyd (12.03) [Jake Delhomme]
8.10: Aaron Brooks (7.11) [Rod Smith]
8.11: Drew Bennett (5.03) [Reuben Droughns]
8.12: Mushin Muhammed (8.04) [Randy McMichael]
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Of course.The ideal way to do this is to take the injured/suspended players, and add an average game from the 43rd WR (average of the best backups...37th-49th WR) for every game that player missed.
Do I want to do that? No.
Do you? Be my guest. My work will soon be completely posted.
Bruce Henderson
Footballguy
I posted Keys data here: Link to Year End Data for Draft Dominator
Thanks again to Keys for pulling this together.
Thanks again to Keys for pulling this together.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
No Kickers Keyz?Rackers should be in there by now 
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
I've said earlier in here that K and DEF are not included, because of the huge volitility involved.Plus, Rackers was NOT the best kicker this year.No Kickers Keyz?
Rackers should be in there by now
Last edited by a moderator:
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
I think quite a few people benched LT2 in Week 16, after his poor performances in the weeks leading up to it. I could be wrong, though...but I saw it done a couple of times.But, the original poster is right about the playoffs being mostly luck. It's the way FF works. You put in 14 weeks to have a 2 week coinflip. But, that's half the fun, IMO.
jeff_eaglz
Moderator
So true regarding skill vs. luck....More skill than luck to make the playoffs, then luck is more a factor (but not the only factor) come playofftime.
A 2-week combined total may be a way to mitigate the "one-hit wonders" that go off in Weeks 14-16.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
That would seem like the most fair way to do it, especially for the championship game.But, that shortens the regular season to 13, even 12 games. That sucks.
jeff_eaglz
Moderator
Depends on your format.If you have a 13 week schedule, you have 3 weeks for playoffs.
If you have a 4 team playoff, not a big deal (1 vs 4, 2 vs 3) then championship 2 game match.
6 teams (or even *ack* 8) is obviously more complicated.
What I'm looking at is either:
1. Overlapping scores for matchups
2. Using average scores to date as a "virtual week".
3. Combination of both.
Format 1 would be:
4 teams: Week 14 and 15 are the semis. Winners have Week 15 carry over to Week 16 matchup for a 2-week total.
6 or 8 teams: Week 14 for the wild cards. Week 14 carries over to Week 15 for semis (add them). Week 15 and 16 for championship.
Format 2:
4 teams: Week 14 plus average score to date (Weeks 1 - 13) for a 2 week total.
6 or 8 teams: Week 14 plus average score to date (Weeks 1 - 13) for a 2 week average for the Wild Cards. Week 15 and your average to date (Weeks 1-14) for semis. Week 16 and your average to date (1-15) for championship.
Format 3:
4 teams: Weeks 14 and 15 plus average score to date (Weeks 1 - 13) for a 3 week total.
6 or 8 teams: Week 14 plus average score to date (Weeks 1 - 13) for a 2 week average for the Wild Cards. Weeks 14 and 15 and your average to date (Weeks 1-14) for semis for a 3 week total. Weeks 15 and 16 and your average to date (1-15) for a 3 week championship.
The reasons for two weeks is to average out the anomalous scores (i.e. LT for 2 points or Santana Moss for 40 in a given week). Three weeks averages it even more.
The reasons to use your average score to date is to sort of "handicap" the matchup before it begins - that is, if one team scored 1300 points and the other scored 1352 in 13 Weeks, the higher team would benefit by a 4 point "spread" before that week. Rewards you for scoring well in the regular season....
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
in my scoring system(s) he was.I've said earlier in here that K and DEF are not included, because of the huge volitility involved.Plus, Rackers was NOT the best kicker this year.No Kickers Keyz?
Rackers should be in there by now
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
IMO, that further proves my initial point.in my scoring system(s) he was.I've said earlier in here that K and DEF are not included, because of the huge volitility involved.Plus, Rackers was NOT the best kicker this year.No Kickers Keyz?
Rackers should be in there by now
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
I *really*, *really* like this. A lot.I know we're getting way off topic here (I'll do the final update to this sometime this week...but I don't feel rushed now that everyone has the file...), but I love this idea...*especially* in 6 team playoff.
The main complaint I hear about a 6 team playoff is it's no fun for the teams with a bye during the 14th week. Now it is. They need those points for the next week, even though they don't know who they're playing.
PLUS, the most important week of the FF season becomes Week 15 (playing your two most important games at once), NOT week 16, where one or two teams usually begin resting players.
This is going to be proposed in a lot of my leagues next time I get a chance.
jeff_eaglz
Moderator
Glad you liked it
Now if I can find a host to score it this way...
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
I don't think you'd need one...just a league that lets you adjust scoring.I think adding onto 6 scores every year is worth the effort.Glad you liked it
Unlucky
Phenom
My thoughts:1. I'm not surprised that people draft too many RBs early. It's the truth - people draft too many RBs early.2. There are two reasons for #1: (a)Everyone else drafts RBs early, so it's actually prudent to draft RBs early, and (b)People think RBs are more predictable than other positions. This may or may not be true, and it's certainly been debated. 3. This proves that there is opportunity for better skilled drafters to take advantage of those weaker drafters that take mediocre to bad RBs when the better value lies with other positions. My conclusion: I'm all for the Stud RB theory, but the key is "STUD" and not "RB". You better be getting a STUD, or else you are better off drafting a WR or TE, or maybe a QB. Finally, a reminder that the real key is to Draft Good Players, otherwise known as the "DGP" theory. Don't draft guys that suck, or get hurt, and you'll do well.
moleculo
Footballguy
I wish I had read this thread earlier. I had been considering something along the lines Mr Anonymous refers to here...my thought is that I want to know guys who may or may not wildly exceed their projections...
My belief is that these guys can be found by examining projections from as many sites as possible - FBG might pimp player A, some other sight might pimp B, etc...that would indicate uncertianty amongst those interested enough to do projections, which means that they might be more likely to have a break-out season.
Any thoughts on where I can get lots of projections from the start of last year, besides ADP?
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Lots of them? No.Individual sites will get basic projections though. Read 2-3 of them and you'll get a general feel.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Bumping this to raise a question, because I think it might be answered here.It seems some WRs are consistent from year to year...consistently top 5-7.Should we be drafting them higher than the 3rd round, after about 15-20 RBs have been taken? According to this, we should. Am I wrong here?
Mathematics
Footballguy
I think we should be drafting the consistent stud wr's like Holt, Chad Johnson, Harrison, Owens, etc. in the second round if no other top 10-15 rb's are left. The key here is that these wr's value is the second round, so you are getting exactly the same value for your pick. One of the points of drafting is to either get the same value for your picks or better value. These guys are excellent value in the third round, which is why we all try to get them there. But it's also wise to take a stud wr in the second round and get a rb like Westbrook, S-Jax, Dunn, etc. (using last years potential available 3rd round rb's) in the third round since these rb's won't be any worse than all the rb's you get in the second round. You also get a more consistent wr option from these guys than taking a chance in the second round on the many rb busts that occur year to year after the top rb's are taken.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
I think this might be right...The key here is, the *consistent* WRs. They have to do it for at least 2 years to warrant that kind of spot, IMO...because of the natural inconsistency of WRs.
The Jerk
Footballguy
Keys,Back in your opening post, you mention that"Too many running backs are possibly being taken early in drafts.In the first two rounds, ADP has 18 RBs off the board, where the perfect draft has 13. On the flip side, ADP has 4 WRs off the board, while the perfect draft had 9."I have typically ignored the stud RB approach in my drafts, but I have a reason beyond the simple value that your study suggests. I figure that if I draft 2 RB early (in a start 2 RB league), then I eliminate the possibility of finding value later in the draft if some RB slips later than he should. Yes, I can draft a 3rd RB early, and that is also espoused in some draft circles, but now I'm really hurting myself at other positions. In addition, I am taking away from potential free agent bargains in the RB position.Like any strategy, this approach will work better in some leagues then in others, and better some years than others. You need to look at league roster and lineup requirements, and it is also good to know owners' drafting tendencies.I had great success with this strategy from 1995-2000, where I landed a solid #2 RB anywhere from the 4th to 7th round or in free agency. It's not been as consistent since then, but this year, I'm wishing I had stayed the course and not drafted Kevin Jones early as my #2 RB!!I don't think I'll ever convince the diehard stud RB advocates on the merits of this approach, but the strategy is related to the same rationale of why you wait to draft a kicker and defense. When a bargain sneaks through, you end up stronger at all the other positions because you were able to draft other players earlier than if you spent a high pick on a second RB. Obviously, the key is to target a few RBs and the round in which you think they might last. And finally, like any strategy, you have to know when to deviate from the plan. For a given season, if you can't find good potential later RBs, you may need to scrap the plan and draft 2 RBs early.Just another drafting strategy for people to file away and consider. If nothing else, remembering this approach might help you avoid panicking if you plan on going RB-RB but find the pickings are slim when it comes to your second pick...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Drafting rbs early and often is definitly a trend that is consistent in any league that can be exploited.The actual players change from year to year but later rb prospects are always available rounds 4-8 that can perform equaly well or outperform rbs taken in rounds 2 and 3. Sometimes even Rbs taken in round one.I believe in being flexible and if the draft goes in such a way that a very good rb (ie limited risk and good potential) is still available I will go ahead and take him. But if not I have no problem with looking to WR or Qb instead trusting my ability to find Rbs later in the draft that will be of better value to my overall draft.It doesen't always work but taking 3 Rbs in the 1st 3 round doesen't always work either.Unlucky puts it very simply in his DGP theory. That is the key.. to draft the best player each and every round. Identifying who those players are each and every year with all of the variables that effect thier performance is the hard thing to determine. Factoring surronding cast and projecting the players piece of that pie is the best way to make that determination imo as injury's and other circumstances are much harder to predict.
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