einstein2u
Footballguy
thanks....some more reading to do.
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The *perfect* 2005 FF Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Keys Myaths
- Start date
I'd rather see some of these numbers baked in on a per game played.Bulger was doing steller before his injury.Boldin was hurt for some games and still manage to be in rd 2McAllister was averaging a 100 yards a game if I recall before his injury.Cadillac sat out a few games.I wouldn't say that you should have to look at all players, but some of these are pretty significant. Unless the only purpose is to see who you should have draft, to win. But hindsight is always 20/20. 
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
There's one question I want to pose to you guys...in both these drafts that require TEs, Gates was in the top 11 overall.How early would you guys draft him next year? Is he worth a late first round pick? Early second? Late second?Why?
wannabee
Footballguy
I do not think I could draft him before mid/late second. The opportunity cost is too steep. It is the same argument as for first round qb. RBs and WRs are too far behind others.In addition, the dropoff from Gates to Cooley.Witten/Alge is not near as far as RBs: RB1/RB2 of Rudi/Jordan in rounds 1 and 2 with Dunn in round 4 as RB3 to Jordan/Dunn as RB1/RB2 with someone like FWP as RB3.To me, the first set of RB/RB is "safer". Also, it gives you a very solid base for your team. I would also think that Rudi/Holt would give an advantage over Gates/Jordan.I probably did not articulate this well, but I hope the point was made.
jeff_eaglz
Moderator
As good as Gates is / was this season, I couldn't risk my entire draft on him which is close to what you'd be doing if you draft Gates in Round 1 of a 12 team draft. Even if you get Mike Anderson at the turn (or a similar RB near the bottom of the Top 10), you're risking that RB2 slot a great deal. Also, given that Gates is the top TE, the position is becoming much more prominent in the NFL. Gonzo, Shockey, Crumpler have all done well and don't pose as big a dropoff from Gates as dones not taking 2 RBs in the Top 14-15 picks.
If you took the "perfect draft" for the first four rounds:
1.11: Antonio Gates, TE
2.02: Mike Anderson, RB
3.11: Carnell Williams, RB
4.02: Donald Driver, WR
Your third RB option here at 4.02 would be Tatum Bell.
Using the same list but taking RB/RB:
2.01: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11) [Randy Moss]
2.02: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03) [Daunte Culpepper]
3.11: Carnell Williams, RB (3.10) [Antonio Gates]
4.02: Every other TE on the board.
I believe a Top 3 TE (Gonzo / Shockey) along with these 3 backs would be better odds to perform well for you in 2006.
None of this takes in to account the Drew Brees injury, but that is another consideration. Gonzo also had a bad year due to Willie Roaf's injury (Gonzo often stayed in to block in KC's "Roaf-less" games).
TE will be a deep position, as the big 3 will be joined by Heap, McMichael, LJ Smith, Witten, Troupe, Wiggins...
IMO, End of Round 1 is RB/RB followed by RB/WR due to the increased depth at TE in 2006 (assuming yardage only, no PPR).
Bruce Henderson
Footballguy
Once you download and install the Draft Dominator... click Help - VBD Revisited to see the Value Based Drafting Article.
AcousticNut
Footballguy
I'll ditto the rest of the crowd with an "Excellent work Keys!" cheer. Very interesting stuff indeed.I think that the #'s just put very strong support behind the "Stud RB" theory. It appears that the deviation between ADP and Perfect Draft position is much smaller with RBs than with every other position. There are a lot of great values to be had with QB / WR in the later rounds, but most of the top RBs appear to be going where they should. This leads credence to the fact that RBs appear to be the most consistant as far as projections. Have to run to work now, but maybe I'll plug those deviation #'s in tonight and see if it's all that it appears to be.Draft your RBs early and then fill up on a lot of WRs and QBs in the later rounds with the expectation that at least a couple of them are going to catch fire that year and post solid #s.Keep it coming bro.....
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Workhorse
Footballguy
What I find most interesting is the near complete turnover of QB value from 2004 to 2005 in terms of VBD:2004:Manning (1.05)Culpepper (2.02)McNabb (3.03)Bulger (4.03)Green (4.09)2005
almer (2.12)Brady (3.02)Manning (3.06)That speaks VOLUMES to me about redraft QB value and utter lack of predictability at that position from year to year.
almer (2.12)Brady (3.02)Manning (3.06)That speaks VOLUMES to me about redraft QB value and utter lack of predictability at that position from year to year.
code
Footballguy
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Thanks, Bruce.And for Einstein, it's well worth the money just for that application. Absolutely fantastic.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
By the way, with Joe's approval, I will e-mail the actual projections file to anyone who wants it when I'm actually done with all this.That would take care of everyone's individual leagues, etc.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Well, it's not lack of predictibility, IMO...it's just that 2004 was an amazing year for QBs in general. Therefore, we overpredicted how QBs would do this year, and it just didn't happen.I think 2004 was the abberation, and 2005 was just regression to the mean.
BTW--working on rounds 5 and 6 now.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Round 5, my peoples.
(Standard scoring, start QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/DST/K)
FIRST ROUND:
1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02) [LaDainian Tomlinson]
1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01) [shaun Alexander]
1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01) [Priest Holmes]
1.04: Tiki Barber, RB (2.05) [Edgerrin James]
1.05: Edgerrin James, RB (1.04) [Peyton Manning]
1.06: Clinton Portis, RB (1.09) [Willis McGahee]
1.07: Steve Smith, WR (4.05) [Deuce McAllister]
1.08: Rudi Johnson, RB (2.06) [Domanick Davis]
1.09: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (6.01) [Clinton Portis]
1.10: Lamont Jordan, RB (3.02) [Jamal Lewis]
1.11: Antonio Gates, TE (3.11) [Corey Dillon]
1.12: Santana Moss, WR (9.05) [Kevin Jones]
SECOND ROUND:
2.01: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11) [Randy Moss]
2.02: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03) [Daunte Culpepper]
2.03: Chad Johnson, WR (3.01) [Julius Jones]
2.04: Steven Jackson, RB (2.12)[Ahman Green]
2.05: Torry Holt, WR (2.07) [Tiki Barber]
2.06: Joey Galloway, WR (17.01) [Rudi Johnson]
2.07: Chris Chambers, WR (6.10) [Torry Holt]
2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR (2.11) [Curtis Martin]
2.09: Anquan Boldin, WR (5.02) [brian Westbrook]
2.10: Warrick Dunn, RB (4.08) [Terrell Owens]
2.11: Reuben Droughns, RB (9.01) [Marvin Harrison]
2.12: Carson Palmer, QB (7.06) [steven Jackson]
THIRD ROUND:
3.01: Willis McGahee, RB (1.06) [Chad Johnson]
3.02: Tom Brady, QB (6.02) [Lamont Jordan]
3.03: Hines Ward, WR (3.09) [Donovan McNabb]
3.04: Peyton Manning, QB (1.05) [Javon Walker]
3.05: Willie Parker, RB (14.06) [Joe Horn]
3.06: Corey Dillon, RB (1.11) [Andre Johnson]
3.07: Brian Westbrook, RB (2.09) [Tony Gonzalez]
3.08: Domanick Davis, RB (1.08) [Reggie Wayne]
3.09: Plaxico Burress, WR (8.02) [Hines Ward]
3.10: Chris Brown, RB (4.11) [Carnell Williams]
3.11: Carnell Williams, RB (3.10) [Antonio Gates]
3.12: Julius Jones, RB (2.03) [Darrell Jackson]
FOURTH ROUND:
4.01: Terry Glenn, WR (17.12) [Nate Burleson]
4.02: Donald Driver, WR(5.11) [J.J. Arrington]
4.03: Randy Moss, WR (2.01) [Marc Bulger]
4.04: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR (9.10) [Roy Williams]
4.05: Rod Smith, WR (8.11) [steve Smith]
4.06: Tatum Bell, RB (4.10) [Fred Taylor]
4.07: Keenan McCardell, WR (11.05) [Michael Clayton]
4.08: Eddie Kennison, WR (9.06) [Warrick Dunn]
4.09: Ronnie Brown, RB (4.12) [Trent Green]
4.10: Donte Stallworth, WR (10.09) [Tatum Bell]
4.11: Jimmy Smith, WR (7.01) [Chris Brown]
4.12: DeShaun Foster, RB (5.01) [Ronnie Brown]
FIFTH ROUND:
5.01: Jeremy Shockey, TE (6.04) [DeShaun Foster]
5.02: Reggie Wayne, WR (3.08) [Anquan Boldin]
5.03: Todd Heap, TE (6.09) [Drew Bennett]
5.04: Jamal Lewis, RB (1.10) [Michael Bennett]
5.05: Deion Branch, WR (7.07) [Jason Witten]
5.06: Stephen Davis, RB (11.10) [Kerry Collins]
5.07: Ricky Williams, RB (9.07) [Michael Vick]
5.08: Alge Crumpler, TE (6.05) [Laverneus Coles]
5.09: Eli Manning, QB (13.08) [brett Farve]
5.10: Matt Hasselbeck, QB (6.07) [Jerry Porter]
5.11: Mewelde Moore, RB (8.05) [Donald Driver]
5.12: Curtis Martin, RB (2.08) [Kevan Barlow]
(Standard scoring, start QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/DST/K)
FIRST ROUND:
1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02) [LaDainian Tomlinson]
1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01) [shaun Alexander]
1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01) [Priest Holmes]
1.04: Tiki Barber, RB (2.05) [Edgerrin James]
1.05: Edgerrin James, RB (1.04) [Peyton Manning]
1.06: Clinton Portis, RB (1.09) [Willis McGahee]
1.07: Steve Smith, WR (4.05) [Deuce McAllister]
1.08: Rudi Johnson, RB (2.06) [Domanick Davis]
1.09: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (6.01) [Clinton Portis]
1.10: Lamont Jordan, RB (3.02) [Jamal Lewis]
1.11: Antonio Gates, TE (3.11) [Corey Dillon]
1.12: Santana Moss, WR (9.05) [Kevin Jones]
SECOND ROUND:
2.01: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11) [Randy Moss]
2.02: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03) [Daunte Culpepper]
2.03: Chad Johnson, WR (3.01) [Julius Jones]
2.04: Steven Jackson, RB (2.12)[Ahman Green]
2.05: Torry Holt, WR (2.07) [Tiki Barber]
2.06: Joey Galloway, WR (17.01) [Rudi Johnson]
2.07: Chris Chambers, WR (6.10) [Torry Holt]
2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR (2.11) [Curtis Martin]
2.09: Anquan Boldin, WR (5.02) [brian Westbrook]
2.10: Warrick Dunn, RB (4.08) [Terrell Owens]
2.11: Reuben Droughns, RB (9.01) [Marvin Harrison]
2.12: Carson Palmer, QB (7.06) [steven Jackson]
THIRD ROUND:
3.01: Willis McGahee, RB (1.06) [Chad Johnson]
3.02: Tom Brady, QB (6.02) [Lamont Jordan]
3.03: Hines Ward, WR (3.09) [Donovan McNabb]
3.04: Peyton Manning, QB (1.05) [Javon Walker]
3.05: Willie Parker, RB (14.06) [Joe Horn]
3.06: Corey Dillon, RB (1.11) [Andre Johnson]
3.07: Brian Westbrook, RB (2.09) [Tony Gonzalez]
3.08: Domanick Davis, RB (1.08) [Reggie Wayne]
3.09: Plaxico Burress, WR (8.02) [Hines Ward]
3.10: Chris Brown, RB (4.11) [Carnell Williams]
3.11: Carnell Williams, RB (3.10) [Antonio Gates]
3.12: Julius Jones, RB (2.03) [Darrell Jackson]
FOURTH ROUND:
4.01: Terry Glenn, WR (17.12) [Nate Burleson]
4.02: Donald Driver, WR(5.11) [J.J. Arrington]
4.03: Randy Moss, WR (2.01) [Marc Bulger]
4.04: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR (9.10) [Roy Williams]
4.05: Rod Smith, WR (8.11) [steve Smith]
4.06: Tatum Bell, RB (4.10) [Fred Taylor]
4.07: Keenan McCardell, WR (11.05) [Michael Clayton]
4.08: Eddie Kennison, WR (9.06) [Warrick Dunn]
4.09: Ronnie Brown, RB (4.12) [Trent Green]
4.10: Donte Stallworth, WR (10.09) [Tatum Bell]
4.11: Jimmy Smith, WR (7.01) [Chris Brown]
4.12: DeShaun Foster, RB (5.01) [Ronnie Brown]
FIFTH ROUND:
5.01: Jeremy Shockey, TE (6.04) [DeShaun Foster]
5.02: Reggie Wayne, WR (3.08) [Anquan Boldin]
5.03: Todd Heap, TE (6.09) [Drew Bennett]
5.04: Jamal Lewis, RB (1.10) [Michael Bennett]
5.05: Deion Branch, WR (7.07) [Jason Witten]
5.06: Stephen Davis, RB (11.10) [Kerry Collins]
5.07: Ricky Williams, RB (9.07) [Michael Vick]
5.08: Alge Crumpler, TE (6.05) [Laverneus Coles]
5.09: Eli Manning, QB (13.08) [brett Farve]
5.10: Matt Hasselbeck, QB (6.07) [Jerry Porter]
5.11: Mewelde Moore, RB (8.05) [Donald Driver]
5.12: Curtis Martin, RB (2.08) [Kevan Barlow]
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Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Breaking this down by round, into number of each position actually taken vs. positions that *should've* been taken each round:
1st Round: ADP had 11 RBs, 1 QB. Perfect draft had 8 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE.
2nd Round: ADP: 7 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 QB. Perfect Draft: 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 QB.
3rd Round: ADP: 2 RBs, 7 WRs, 1 TE, 1 QB. Perfect Draft: 2 QB, 8 RB, 2 WR
4th Round: ADP: 6 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 QBs. Perfect Draft: 9 WRs, 3 RBs.
5th Round: ADP: 3 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE, 3 QBs. Perfect Draft: 5 RBs, 2 WRs, 3 TEs, 2 QBs,
What's interesting?
According to this, too many running backs are possibly being taken early in drafts.
Possibly.
I know this is going to get a few harsh responses...but this thread was designed to explore things we haven't explored before...so let's do that.
I'm going to bold it:
Too many running backs are possibly being taken early in drafts.
In the first two rounds, ADP has 18 RBs off the board, where the perfect draft has 13. On the flip side, ADP has 4 WRs off the board, while the perfect draft had 9.
Does this mean anything? Maybe, maybe not. But, for those of you in start 3 WR leagues, you might want to take a step back on this one.
Mathematics
Footballguy
I think this a valid argument, but we didn't know who the top wide receivers were before the season started. The projected top wide receivers were Moss and Owens. No one could predict that S Smith, S Smoss, Fitz would be the top 3 wide receivers. This is the main reason why people wait until later to grab wide receivers. Wide Receivers are unpredictable every year (except for two to three studs per year) which is why I can't imagine 9 wide receivers going in the first two rounds.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
That's fine...But of the top 4 RBs chosen by ADP, 3 performed, and 1 busted. Of the top 4 WRs chosen by ADP, 2 performed, 1 halfway busted (TO was great until he got suspended), and 1 busted.
Of the top 15 RBs chosen by ADP, 9 busted, and 6 performed.
Of the top 15 WRs chosen by ADP, 8 busted, 5 performed, and 2 halfway performed (DJax and TO).
Doesn't seem to be THAT much difference to me.
And by perfect draft position, both Randy Moss and Domanick Davis busted as much as the other. I counted them both as busts.
jeff_eaglz
Moderator
Whoa whoa whoa.....Hold on a second here.
Numbers can lie to you, and I think they are here.
Allow me to throw out the pertinent facts:
Using the pre-season ADP:
3 RBs in the Top 20 slots were injured for more than 8 games.
4 more RBs in the Top 21 slots were injured for at least 4 games.
That's 7 out of 21 that are hurt.
Injury comparison: 2 WRs in the Top 30 missed more than 8 games (TO, Walker), and only one of those was due to injury. 3 WRs in the Top 40 missed at least 8, with 1 more missing at least 4 games.
QB - One in the Top 20 missed more than 8 (Culpepper), and one more in the Top 40 (Bulger). McNabb at 27 also missed 7 games.
Of course you can argue that the injuries are part of the game - but that is EXACTLY the point. RBs get hurt at an alarming rate since they handle the ball 3 times as much as WRs. You have to take RBs more than WRs since you not only need stud RBs, but you also need depth because on average you're going to lose one of those studs for at least 1/4 of a season if not longer. With 7 of the top 17 RBs falling downward due to injuries, WRs can go up in value with 20/20 hindsight.
Injuries must be "the grain of salt" that you take with these results.
All that in mind - I think this is great work keys. I'm partially playing devil's advocate here, but I think the conclusion you drew from your results is flawed.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
All good points.You know me, just like to stir up crap...I never said I was fully behind this, but might as well explore it.
Honestly? I'm looking for the "Moneyball" concept of FF. There's gotta be something. VBD is a huge part of it...but now that's become too common.
We have to find something that's undervalued, and exploit it. That's part of the reason I did this.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Yes, but let's say we find it in this thread...then, only the 500 or so people that read this thread will know it for quite a while, and I'm sure only a tenth or so will actually believe it.Plus, 500 minds are a lot better than one.
Especially when it's mine.
Mr. Anonymous
Footballguy
Great stuff, Keys.Inspired me to VBD our league's scoring for the year, which I normally do in August. I haven't done any comparisons to ADPs, and of course it's not in Draft/Lineup Dominator. So I can't determine the "perfect draft" yet, but I know who (in retrospect) was worth more than who.I don't have it with me, but the thing that jumps out at me is the "where did that guy come from" and "what the hell happened to them, vs. where everyone was drafting them" tend to come predominantly at 1) Defense, 2) TE, and 3) WR (sort of in that order). I want to develop some kind of statistical methodology to incorporate this "high beta" at certain positions. Was playing around with standard deviation as a percentage of average weekly scoring, but haven't done anything with it. But that only addresses the weekly variability, not the differential between expectations for "projected Defense #3" and actual for that Defense.It was a glaring reminder to me that no matter how highly defenses "VBD" in our league, given the massive scoring defenses produce under our rules, the inability to predict that the Bills will suck and the Bears will nearly set records is reason enough to wait on them. Same with "old guy" WRs - I love 'em, and we're planning to develop a system specifically to target these guys past their prime who are still productive. And TEs are a conundrum - you've got to either grab a top 3 guy or so or just forget it and hope you grab that top 5 guy in round 14. I haven't decided what to do on this - half of me wants to grab Gates at the top of round 2 (what he's "worth") and the other half wants to wait until round 10 to grab my first one. I'm not comfortable with that kind of disparity in draft tactics.
jeff_eaglz
Moderator
Yes, and you know I'm here for ample rebuttal. Good discussions back and forth.Funny you should mention "Moneyball" - I was just using that analogy for FF today.
There should be an equivalent book for FF....
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Exactly. That's the main reason I won't include kickers/defenses in this.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Well, VBD was it...until half the FF world started using it.I think it might be at least fun to spend the offseason trying to figure out what the next one is.
Wilbur Wood
Footballguy
I think that the right type of analysis is too "adjust" for guys like Boldin, Cadillac. I would only adjust for guys that are not chronic injury types. Simply add to the point totals the "average PPG" for a "average replacement player". So if the base format is a 12 team league that starts 3 WRs. Take the average PPG for WRs #37-48 and multiply it by the full number of games missed (not partial games) and add it to adjusted players point total. For Boldin, that would be 2 games of production at an assumed "replacement rate" of production. In actuality, in the 2 leagues that I had Boldin I put in players like Mason, Coles, Muhammed when he was out.
Wilbur Wood
Footballguy
Yeah but the DD is programmed with VBD which should fully account for these drop-offs. It is a fair point to say that one does not think the "dropoffs" of 2005 are likely to be replicated in 2006/2007 (the "Peyton Manning" argument coming out of the 2004 season), although I'm not sure that is what I expect out of Gates given his PPG over the 2nd half of 2004 and all of 2005.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Here's a few of my own thoughts to shoot down :
1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02) [LaDainian Tomlinson]
1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01) [shaun Alexander]
1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01) [Priest Holmes]
For the last couple of years, stud RBs have been stud RBs. You get a top 3 draft pick, you know who you're getting, with little downside. That's comforting.
1.07: Steve Smith, WR (4.05) [Deuce McAllister]
The top WR usually goes from here to 2.01...but he better be the top receiver, or end up among the top five. Remember, Randy Moss was still a top 15 WR this year, and killed some teams.
4.06: Tatum Bell, RB (4.10) [Fred Taylor]
This could be the best argument for stud RB theory in this thread. Drafting your second RB in the fourth round? Well, you should be expecting someone, on a good day, around Tatum Bell's status. Not good news.
5.01: Jeremy Shockey, TE (6.04) [DeShaun Foster]
After Gates, there's a *huge* dropoff in TEs. Shockey in the fifth? Wow.
5.12: Curtis Martin, RB (2.08) [Kevan Barlow]
And who really was the Kevan Barlow of 2005?
:1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02) [LaDainian Tomlinson]
1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01) [shaun Alexander]
1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01) [Priest Holmes]
For the last couple of years, stud RBs have been stud RBs. You get a top 3 draft pick, you know who you're getting, with little downside. That's comforting.
1.07: Steve Smith, WR (4.05) [Deuce McAllister]
The top WR usually goes from here to 2.01...but he better be the top receiver, or end up among the top five. Remember, Randy Moss was still a top 15 WR this year, and killed some teams.
4.06: Tatum Bell, RB (4.10) [Fred Taylor]
This could be the best argument for stud RB theory in this thread. Drafting your second RB in the fourth round? Well, you should be expecting someone, on a good day, around Tatum Bell's status. Not good news.
5.01: Jeremy Shockey, TE (6.04) [DeShaun Foster]
After Gates, there's a *huge* dropoff in TEs. Shockey in the fifth? Wow.
5.12: Curtis Martin, RB (2.08) [Kevan Barlow]
And who really was the Kevan Barlow of 2005?
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
A few of you have PMed me asking for the file...I'm obviously not done yet (give it about a week), but Bruce has offered to post it in the Applications forum. You'll find it pinned there sometime next week.Also, something to watch out for...that I'm noticing right now: Randy Moss.A LOT of people are going to be really down on him after this year...*really* down on him.But even this year, Moss was worth an early fourth round pick. If he falls below that this year...he can be a fantastic steal.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
(Standard scoring, start QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/)
FIRST ROUND:
1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02) [LaDainian Tomlinson]
1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01) [shaun Alexander]
1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01) [Priest Holmes]
1.04: Tiki Barber, RB (2.05) [Edgerrin James]
1.05: Edgerrin James, RB (1.04) [Peyton Manning]
1.06: Clinton Portis, RB (1.09) [Willis McGahee]
1.07: Steve Smith, WR (4.05) [Deuce McAllister]
1.08: Rudi Johnson, RB (2.06) [Domanick Davis]
1.09: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (6.01) [Clinton Portis]
1.10: Lamont Jordan, RB (3.02) [Jamal Lewis]
1.11: Antonio Gates, TE (3.11) [Corey Dillon]
1.12: Santana Moss, WR (9.05) [Kevin Jones]
SECOND ROUND:
2.01: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11) [Randy Moss]
2.02: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03) [Daunte Culpepper]
2.03: Chad Johnson, WR (3.01) [Julius Jones]
2.04: Steven Jackson, RB (2.12)[Ahman Green]
2.05: Torry Holt, WR (2.07) [Tiki Barber]
2.06: Joey Galloway, WR (17.01) [Rudi Johnson]
2.07: Chris Chambers, WR (6.10) [Torry Holt]
2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR (2.11) [Curtis Martin]
2.09: Anquan Boldin, WR (5.02) [brian Westbrook]
2.10: Warrick Dunn, RB (4.08) [Terrell Owens]
2.11: Reuben Droughns, RB (9.01) [Marvin Harrison]
2.12: Carson Palmer, QB (7.06) [steven Jackson]
THIRD ROUND:
3.01: Willis McGahee, RB (1.06) [Chad Johnson]
3.02: Tom Brady, QB (6.02) [Lamont Jordan]
3.03: Hines Ward, WR (3.09) [Donovan McNabb]
3.04: Peyton Manning, QB (1.05) [Javon Walker]
3.05: Willie Parker, RB (14.06) [Joe Horn]
3.06: Corey Dillon, RB (1.11) [Andre Johnson]
3.07: Brian Westbrook, RB (2.09) [Tony Gonzalez]
3.08: Domanick Davis, RB (1.08) [Reggie Wayne]
3.09: Plaxico Burress, WR (8.02) [Hines Ward]
3.10: Chris Brown, RB (4.11) [Carnell Williams]
3.11: Carnell Williams, RB (3.10) [Antonio Gates]
3.12: Julius Jones, RB (2.03) [Darrell Jackson]
FOURTH ROUND:
4.01: Terry Glenn, WR (17.12) [Nate Burleson]
4.02: Donald Driver, WR(5.11) [J.J. Arrington]
4.03: Randy Moss, WR (2.01) [Marc Bulger]
4.04: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR (9.10) [Roy Williams]
4.05: Rod Smith, WR (8.11) [steve Smith]
4.06: Tatum Bell, RB (4.10) [Fred Taylor]
4.07: Keenan McCardell, WR (11.05) [Michael Clayton]
4.08: Eddie Kennison, WR (9.06) [Warrick Dunn]
4.09: Ronnie Brown, RB (4.12) [Trent Green]
4.10: Donte Stallworth, WR (10.09) [Tatum Bell]
4.11: Jimmy Smith, WR (7.01) [Chris Brown]
4.12: DeShaun Foster, RB (5.01) [Ronnie Brown]
FIFTH ROUND:
5.01: Jeremy Shockey, TE (6.04) [DeShaun Foster]
5.02: Reggie Wayne, WR (3.08) [Anquan Boldin]
5.03: Todd Heap, TE (6.09) [Drew Bennett]
5.04: Jamal Lewis, RB (1.10) [Michael Bennett]
5.05: Deion Branch, WR (7.07) [Jason Witten]
5.06: Stephen Davis, RB (11.10) [Kerry Collins]
5.07: Ricky Williams, RB (9.07) [Michael Vick]
5.08: Alge Crumpler, TE (6.05) [Laverneus Coles]
5.09: Eli Manning, QB (13.08) [brett Farve]
5.10: Matt Hasselbeck, QB (6.07) [Jerry Porter]
5.11: Mewelde Moore, RB (8.05) [Donald Driver]
5.12: Curtis Martin, RB (2.08) [Kevan Barlow]
Sixth Round
6.01: Chris Cooley, TE (13.12) [Larry Fitzgerald]
6.02: Joe Jurevicius (21.03) [Tom Brady]
6.03: Jason Witten (5.05) [Cedric Benson]
6.04: Fred Taylor (4.06) [Jeremy Shockey]
6.05: Kevin Jones (1.12) [Alge Crumpler]
6.06: Antonio Bryant (13.02) [issac Bruce]
6.07: Kevin Curtis (14.07) [Matt Hasselbeck]
6.08: Samkon Gado (----) [Larry Johnson]
6.09: Jerry Porter (5.10) [Todd Heap]
6.10: Derrick Mason (6.12) [Chris Chambers]
6.11: Priest Holmes (1.03) [Derrick Mason]
6.12: Lee Evans (8.01) [Derrick Mason]
FIRST ROUND:
1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB (1.02) [LaDainian Tomlinson]
1.02: Larry Johnson, RB (6.01) [shaun Alexander]
1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB (1.01) [Priest Holmes]
1.04: Tiki Barber, RB (2.05) [Edgerrin James]
1.05: Edgerrin James, RB (1.04) [Peyton Manning]
1.06: Clinton Portis, RB (1.09) [Willis McGahee]
1.07: Steve Smith, WR (4.05) [Deuce McAllister]
1.08: Rudi Johnson, RB (2.06) [Domanick Davis]
1.09: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (6.01) [Clinton Portis]
1.10: Lamont Jordan, RB (3.02) [Jamal Lewis]
1.11: Antonio Gates, TE (3.11) [Corey Dillon]
1.12: Santana Moss, WR (9.05) [Kevin Jones]
SECOND ROUND:
2.01: Thomas Jones, RB (6.11) [Randy Moss]
2.02: Mike Anderson, RB (7.03) [Daunte Culpepper]
2.03: Chad Johnson, WR (3.01) [Julius Jones]
2.04: Steven Jackson, RB (2.12)[Ahman Green]
2.05: Torry Holt, WR (2.07) [Tiki Barber]
2.06: Joey Galloway, WR (17.01) [Rudi Johnson]
2.07: Chris Chambers, WR (6.10) [Torry Holt]
2.08: Marvin Harrison, WR (2.11) [Curtis Martin]
2.09: Anquan Boldin, WR (5.02) [brian Westbrook]
2.10: Warrick Dunn, RB (4.08) [Terrell Owens]
2.11: Reuben Droughns, RB (9.01) [Marvin Harrison]
2.12: Carson Palmer, QB (7.06) [steven Jackson]
THIRD ROUND:
3.01: Willis McGahee, RB (1.06) [Chad Johnson]
3.02: Tom Brady, QB (6.02) [Lamont Jordan]
3.03: Hines Ward, WR (3.09) [Donovan McNabb]
3.04: Peyton Manning, QB (1.05) [Javon Walker]
3.05: Willie Parker, RB (14.06) [Joe Horn]
3.06: Corey Dillon, RB (1.11) [Andre Johnson]
3.07: Brian Westbrook, RB (2.09) [Tony Gonzalez]
3.08: Domanick Davis, RB (1.08) [Reggie Wayne]
3.09: Plaxico Burress, WR (8.02) [Hines Ward]
3.10: Chris Brown, RB (4.11) [Carnell Williams]
3.11: Carnell Williams, RB (3.10) [Antonio Gates]
3.12: Julius Jones, RB (2.03) [Darrell Jackson]
FOURTH ROUND:
4.01: Terry Glenn, WR (17.12) [Nate Burleson]
4.02: Donald Driver, WR(5.11) [J.J. Arrington]
4.03: Randy Moss, WR (2.01) [Marc Bulger]
4.04: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR (9.10) [Roy Williams]
4.05: Rod Smith, WR (8.11) [steve Smith]
4.06: Tatum Bell, RB (4.10) [Fred Taylor]
4.07: Keenan McCardell, WR (11.05) [Michael Clayton]
4.08: Eddie Kennison, WR (9.06) [Warrick Dunn]
4.09: Ronnie Brown, RB (4.12) [Trent Green]
4.10: Donte Stallworth, WR (10.09) [Tatum Bell]
4.11: Jimmy Smith, WR (7.01) [Chris Brown]
4.12: DeShaun Foster, RB (5.01) [Ronnie Brown]
FIFTH ROUND:
5.01: Jeremy Shockey, TE (6.04) [DeShaun Foster]
5.02: Reggie Wayne, WR (3.08) [Anquan Boldin]
5.03: Todd Heap, TE (6.09) [Drew Bennett]
5.04: Jamal Lewis, RB (1.10) [Michael Bennett]
5.05: Deion Branch, WR (7.07) [Jason Witten]
5.06: Stephen Davis, RB (11.10) [Kerry Collins]
5.07: Ricky Williams, RB (9.07) [Michael Vick]
5.08: Alge Crumpler, TE (6.05) [Laverneus Coles]
5.09: Eli Manning, QB (13.08) [brett Farve]
5.10: Matt Hasselbeck, QB (6.07) [Jerry Porter]
5.11: Mewelde Moore, RB (8.05) [Donald Driver]
5.12: Curtis Martin, RB (2.08) [Kevan Barlow]
Sixth Round
6.01: Chris Cooley, TE (13.12) [Larry Fitzgerald]
6.02: Joe Jurevicius (21.03) [Tom Brady]
6.03: Jason Witten (5.05) [Cedric Benson]
6.04: Fred Taylor (4.06) [Jeremy Shockey]
6.05: Kevin Jones (1.12) [Alge Crumpler]
6.06: Antonio Bryant (13.02) [issac Bruce]
6.07: Kevin Curtis (14.07) [Matt Hasselbeck]
6.08: Samkon Gado (----) [Larry Johnson]
6.09: Jerry Porter (5.10) [Todd Heap]
6.10: Derrick Mason (6.12) [Chris Chambers]
6.11: Priest Holmes (1.03) [Derrick Mason]
6.12: Lee Evans (8.01) [Derrick Mason]
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Check your PM in a second...
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
For those wondering, the 6th round will be done sometime tomorrow...and for those awaiting the file, here's a couple of things:1: Does not include fumbles, receptions, or anything fancier than that (does include interceptions).2: I'm only going to go so far. There's 80 QBs that saw time this year, but for my sanity, I'm only doing the top 35, and everyone else who was projected above the 35th QB, to put them back down. For RBs, I'm doing 60, for WRs, I'm doing about 80, and I'm doing 30 TEs. That should be plenty to give us a good look.3: I encourage you all to take a deeper look into this...and think of draft strategies we can use next year to compensate for the mistakes we made this year.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Seventh Round:
7.01: Keyshawn Johnson (11.11) [Jimmy Smith]
7.02: Roy Williams (4.04) [Ashley Lelie]
7.03: Laverneus Coles (5.08) [Mike Anderson]
7.04: Tony Gonzalez (3.07) [Duce Staley]
7.05: Drew Brees (8.06) [Carson Palmer]
7.06: Drew Bledsoe (13.06) [Deion Branch]
7.07: Kevan Barlow (5.12) [Jake Plummer]
7.08: Terrell Owens (2.10) [Travis Henry]
7.09: Marion Barber (----) [Dallas Clark]
7.10: Ernest Wilford (-----) [Aaron Brooks]
7.11: Amani Toomer (12.07) [Eric Moulds]
7.12: Michael Vick (5.07) [Lee Evans]
7.01: Keyshawn Johnson (11.11) [Jimmy Smith]
7.02: Roy Williams (4.04) [Ashley Lelie]
7.03: Laverneus Coles (5.08) [Mike Anderson]
7.04: Tony Gonzalez (3.07) [Duce Staley]
7.05: Drew Brees (8.06) [Carson Palmer]
7.06: Drew Bledsoe (13.06) [Deion Branch]
7.07: Kevan Barlow (5.12) [Jake Plummer]
7.08: Terrell Owens (2.10) [Travis Henry]
7.09: Marion Barber (----) [Dallas Clark]
7.10: Ernest Wilford (-----) [Aaron Brooks]
7.11: Amani Toomer (12.07) [Eric Moulds]
7.12: Michael Vick (5.07) [Lee Evans]
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
8th round will be added today...then am going to stop there, unless there's an objection. I think most people got what they wanted out of this out of the first 5 rounds.I'm working on finishing up the WR totals as well, then it should be smooth sailing. The actual file should be up (in the Applications forum) sometime this upcoming week. I'll link it here when it happens.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Sure.When I finish, I'll go through and do that.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
The final file has been sent to Bruce to post in the Apps forum.I'll do the final touches on this thread later today.
jeff_eaglz
Moderator
Keys, nice work as always.More fodder for this week
Challenge Everything
Footballguy
Have these "perfect" drafts been completed for prior years? I ask because if there is at least 3 years of data than valid arguments for trends, absolutes, and so forth.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
I've never done them before.There's a post somewhere in here where another poster had run through the top 100 of last year...so that's close. That was obviously very QB heavy.
I don't know about 2 years ago.
I think the guy you quoted got it right about the playoffs being more about luck. No amount of depth is going to change that unless you make a habit of benching guys like Holt, Gates, LT2 in the playoffs because you think they may underperform due to bad matchups. I don't know of any owners that would bench those guys if they are playing.
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