The reality of the Indianapolis Colts this week (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

I see people with a lot of POV on the Colts and whether they should play them this week or not, folks the reason to bench the Colts this week has nothing to do with them starting and finishing, that is simply icing on the cake. Let's dissect the Jets defense and why the Colts are going to fail miserably this week.

1. QB-Now the Jets have played a who's who of bad QBs this year that will skew the numbers a bit for many. But outside of Tom Brady throwing for 300 and a TD a few weeks back, no other QB has crossed 250 yds passing against the Jets. In fact only 2 other QBs threw for 200+ yds all season and that was Chadd Henne in week 5, and David Garrard a couple weeks ago. Henne is the only QB to throw for 2 TDs in 1 game. All other games this year they have either held the opposing QB to zero or 1 TD. Now some of these QBs include Fitz/Edwards, Gradkowski/Russell, Jake Delhomme, Josh Freeman, but there is also names like Schaub, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees.

I don't like the match up although Manning is capable of burning any defense in any era.

2. RB-I don't think you would have to twist Addai owners arms all that hard to get them to sit Addai so I won't spend a lot of time there, but the Jets have been great against the run, only MJD did any real damage to them.

3. WR-Welker went 15/192 one game but outside of that, seriously most WRs end up with about 30-60 yds most weeks and as I said only Miami has thrown for 2 TDs in a game all season so you won't find many cheap TDs to be had here.

4. TE-I love Dallas Clark but if you have another option like Finley from GB for example, this might be the week to get him into your starting line up. No TE has more than 4 receptions all season, not a single one. 2 TEs, both from the Miami Dolphins and the last second heroics of Tony Gonzalez last week are the only TDs for TEs all year.

I know Indy is way better than a lot of teams the Jets faced this year but the match up for the Colts is not juicy. I actually will go out on a limb and even predict that the Jets will win this Sunday and put an end to the unbeaten streak for the Colts with the final score being 20-17 in what will be a very frustrating day for Indy fans and FF owners who roll with them this week.

Statistically, I find it hard to want to play Indy, throw in the red herrings of how long they play for and I expect a lot of tears come Sunday Night.

 

[Tecumseh]

From your mouth to Jeebus' ears...

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I expect Manning will play.

But here's how opposing QB's have faired against the NYJ playing away:

Player Team Week Result Cmp Att Yard/TD INT Rush.Att Yard TD

Matt Schaub HOU 1 W 24-7 (a) 18 33 166 0 1 1 6 0

Drew Brees NO 4 L 10-24 (a) 20 32 190 0 0 3 5 0

Chad Henne MIA 5 L 27-31 (a) 20 26 241 2 0 0 0 0

Bruce Gradkowski OAK 7 W 38-0 (a) 10 19 97 0 0 2 25 0

JaMarcus Russell OAK 7 W 38-0 (a) 6 11 61 0 2 0 0 0

Tom Brady NE 11 L 14-31 (a) 28 41 310 1 0 4 9 0

Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 13 W 19-13 (a) 9 23 98 0 1 5 32 0

Josh Freeman TB 14 W 26-3 (a) 14 33 93 0 3 4 21 0

So, not great.

I'm facing PManning this week and I'm hopeful.

There are those who will say the Jets will be devastated and the Colts have had extra time to prepare. Well, OK, but for this team being out of the playoffs this *is* their SB. Every team brings it against the undefeated week in and week out. To me the biggest problem for the Jets is Sanchez.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I expect Manning will play.

But here's how opposing QB's have faired against the NYJ playing away:

Player Team Week Result Cmp Att Yard/TD INT Rush.Att Yard TD

Matt Schaub HOU 1 W 24-7 (a) 18 33 166 0 1 1 6 0

Drew Brees NO 4 L 10-24 (a) 20 32 190 0 0 3 5 0

Chad Henne MIA 5 L 27-31 (a) 20 26 241 2 0 0 0 0

Bruce Gradkowski OAK 7 W 38-0 (a) 10 19 97 0 0 2 25 0

JaMarcus Russell OAK 7 W 38-0 (a) 6 11 61 0 2 0 0 0

Tom Brady NE 11 L 14-31 (a) 28 41 310 1 0 4 9 0

Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 13 W 19-13 (a) 9 23 98 0 1 5 32 0

Josh Freeman TB 14 W 26-3 (a) 14 33 93 0 3 4 21 0

So, not great.

I'm facing PManning this week and I'm hopeful.

There are those who will say the Jets will be devastated and the Colts have had extra time to prepare. Well, OK, but for this team being out of the playoffs this *is* their SB. Every team brings it against the undefeated week in and week out. To me the biggest problem for the Jets is Sanchez.

Sanchez is a hole on that offense but I expect Thomas Jones to carry the rock till he falls down this week. Expect 25 touches minimum form him and Ryan enjoys watching Peyton manning sit on the sideline with his ball cap on.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

The Broncos D has been pretty solid against elite QB's as well. Barring a good effort from Big Ben, and a decent effort for Brady, the Broncos haven't given much at all. Rivers did very little against them in either game they played, neither did Romo or Palmer. But when Denver travelled to Indy they gave up 220 and 4 td's to Peyton. Sure, Peyton was only 20 for 42 with 3 INT's, but who wouldn't take 220 and 4td's any day of the year from their QB?

 

[Kiddnets]

I am concerned as well - Wayne will be limited by Revis - problem is unless you have great laternatives yu have to go with them - I am not sitting Wayne and Clark for Cotchery and Heap in the finals! If I had Finley and a better WR I would consider I guess but it would kill me to see the Jets lay an egg (very possible) and have the Colts run it up!

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The Colts at home did just fine vs Denvers pass D that was ranked #2 at the time. 200 yards and 4tds.

The Steeler just lit up the Packers and their pass D was like top 3 as well.

I cant see sitting Peyton at home vs anyone

 

[Captain Hook]

I see people with a lot of POV on the Colts and whether they should play them this week or not, folks the reason to bench the Colts this week has nothing to do with them starting and finishing, that is simply icing on the cake. Let's dissect the Jets defense and why the Colts are going to fail miserably this week.

2. RB-I don't think you would have to twist Addai owners arms all that hard to get them to sit Addai so I won't spend a lot of time there, but the Jets have been great against the run, only MJD did any real damage to them.

Great against the run? I don't think so MOP.....certainly great against the pass, but their run defense has allowed:- 9 TD runs.....certainly better than league average of 11.4, but not like they are the Patriots (3), Vikings (4), or Packers (5).....

Ravens, Cowboys, and Steelers have allowed six or seven

- 103 yards per game rushing (average)...again better than league average (115.7) but not like it is less than 100 like 49ers, Steelers, Vikings, Packers, Cowboys, or Bengals

So good, NOT great

The JETS are certainly a good defense, but aside from the real problem - lack of competent alternatives with good matchups who are full time players, I think there are a few other reasons why the Colts will prevail

1) They ARE at home

2) They will try and go un-defeated and have only Buffalo left after this week

3) With a first round bye, it will be weeks before they play their first playoff game and want their stars to maintain a "game edge".....yes if people are nicked up, they would rest them, but they have next week and their bye week as well

4) Peyton Manning

Right now I can' see sitting any of the Colts you would normally play - certainly Wayne, covered to some degree by Revis is not a great play, but do you really have someone on your bench who is a BETTER play? I don't........this was thrown around last week as well - if any of you sat Colts on that weak sauce......how did it work out for you?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I see people with a lot of POV on the Colts and whether they should play them this week or not, folks the reason to bench the Colts this week has nothing to do with them starting and finishing, that is simply icing on the cake. Let's dissect the Jets defense and why the Colts are going to fail miserably this week.

2. RB-I don't think you would have to twist Addai owners arms all that hard to get them to sit Addai so I won't spend a lot of time there, but the Jets have been great against the run, only MJD did any real damage to them.

Great against the run? I don't think so MOP.....certainly great against the pass, but their run defense has allowed:- 9 TD runs.....certainly better than league average of 11.4, but not like they are the Patriots (3), Vikings (4), or Packers (5).....

Ravens, Cowboys, and Steelers have allowed six or seven

- 103 yards per game rushing (average)...again better than league average (115.7) but not like it is less than 100 like 49ers, Steelers, Vikings, Packers, Cowboys, or Bengals

So good, NOT great

The JETS are certainly a good defense, but aside from the real problem - lack of competent alternatives with good matchups who are full time players, I think there are a few other reasons why the Colts will prevail

1) They ARE at home

2) They will try and go un-defeated and have only Buffalo left after this week

3) With a first round bye, it will be weeks before they play their first playoff game and want their stars to maintain a "game edge".....yes if people are nicked up, they would rest them, but they have next week and their bye week as well

4) Peyton Manning

Right now I can' see sitting any of the Colts you would normally play - certainly Wayne, covered to some degree by Revis is not a great play, but do you really have someone on your bench who is a BETTER play? I don't........this was thrown around last week as well - if any of you sat Colts on that weak sauce......how did it work out for you?

Show Me where the Jets have allowed any RB not named MJD to have a top5 type day?Show Me where any QB has thrown for anything against them. 300 yds and 1 TD would put you outside the top10 this past week for sure.

Show me where any WR outside of Wes Welker or any TE for that matter has done diddly poo against them. They pretty much shut down the Saints when the Saints were rolling and that in New Orleans I might add, do you think the Jets care if they play in the Oil Dome this week?

I understand Hook, but some of us work the WW beyond our starters. I will be starting a guy at RB2 that I did not draft, MSW at WR who I did not draft, Jermichael Finley instead of Dallas Clark I might add, and I did not draft Finley either. My kicker was not drafted, defense was not drafted, I have a lot of options besides my starters.

 

[packersfan]

The Colts at home did just fine vs Denvers pass D that was ranked #2 at the time. 200 yards and 4tds.

Good post. I always find it interesting when people focus only on the defensive side of the equation in terms of matchups and lose sight of how good the offense is. I think to provide a more complete analysis, we need to look at how the Colts have done against top pass defenses this season. The Broncos' game was one example. Are there any others? If there is a consistent string of non-production against top pass defenses, then I think one could view this matchup as a difficult one for the Colts. But if Indy has shown the ability against good pass defenses this season, then perhaps it's not the Colts who are in trouble this week but rather the Jets.

 

[gonzobill5]

I see people with a lot of POV on the Colts and whether they should play them this week or not, folks the reason to bench the Colts this week has nothing to do with them starting and finishing, that is simply icing on the cake. Let's dissect the Jets defense and why the Colts are going to fail miserably this week.

2. RB-I don't think you would have to twist Addai owners arms all that hard to get them to sit Addai so I won't spend a lot of time there, but the Jets have been great against the run, only MJD did any real damage to them.

Great against the run? I don't think so MOP.....certainly great against the pass, but their run defense has allowed:- 9 TD runs.....certainly better than league average of 11.4, but not like they are the Patriots (3), Vikings (4), or Packers (5).....

Ravens, Cowboys, and Steelers have allowed six or seven

- 103 yards per game rushing (average)...again better than league average (115.7) but not like it is less than 100 like 49ers, Steelers, Vikings, Packers, Cowboys, or Bengals

So good, NOT great

The JETS are certainly a good defense, but aside from the real problem - lack of competent alternatives with good matchups who are full time players, I think there are a few other reasons why the Colts will prevail

1) They ARE at home

2) They will try and go un-defeated and have only Buffalo left after this week

3) With a first round bye, it will be weeks before they play their first playoff game and want their stars to maintain a "game edge".....yes if people are nicked up, they would rest them, but they have next week and their bye week as well

4) Peyton Manning

Right now I can' see sitting any of the Colts you would normally play - certainly Wayne, covered to some degree by Revis is not a great play, but do you really have someone on your bench who is a BETTER play? I don't........this was thrown around last week as well - if any of you sat Colts on that weak sauce......how did it work out for you?

They are giving up 3.8 ypc, good enough for 5th in the NFL. Their pass defense is so good teams have to run, but they aren't too effective at it. ETA: The longest run they've given up all year is 35 yards...only the Bengals can top that.

I'm benching Wayne for Jerome Harrison but I'm considering playing Austin Collie. Does anyone else think he's a sneaky play? Garcon is banged up, and Revis can't cover everyone...can he? I know Welker lit up the Jets as they focused on shutting down Moss - could we see a similar thing this week?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I see people with a lot of POV on the Colts and whether they should play them this week or not, folks the reason to bench the Colts this week has nothing to do with them starting and finishing, that is simply icing on the cake. Let's dissect the Jets defense and why the Colts are going to fail miserably this week.

2. RB-I don't think you would have to twist Addai owners arms all that hard to get them to sit Addai so I won't spend a lot of time there, but the Jets have been great against the run, only MJD did any real damage to them.

Great against the run? I don't think so MOP.....certainly great against the pass, but their run defense has allowed:- 9 TD runs.....certainly better than league average of 11.4, but not like they are the Patriots (3), Vikings (4), or Packers (5).....

Ravens, Cowboys, and Steelers have allowed six or seven

- 103 yards per game rushing (average)...again better than league average (115.7) but not like it is less than 100 like 49ers, Steelers, Vikings, Packers, Cowboys, or Bengals

So good, NOT great

The JETS are certainly a good defense, but aside from the real problem - lack of competent alternatives with good matchups who are full time players, I think there are a few other reasons why the Colts will prevail

1) They ARE at home

2) They will try and go un-defeated and have only Buffalo left after this week

3) With a first round bye, it will be weeks before they play their first playoff game and want their stars to maintain a "game edge".....yes if people are nicked up, they would rest them, but they have next week and their bye week as well

4) Peyton Manning

Right now I can' see sitting any of the Colts you would normally play - certainly Wayne, covered to some degree by Revis is not a great play, but do you really have someone on your bench who is a BETTER play? I don't........this was thrown around last week as well - if any of you sat Colts on that weak sauce......how did it work out for you?

They are giving up 3.8 ypc, good enough for 5th in the NFL. Their pass defense is so good teams have to run, but they aren't too effective at it. ETA: The longest run they've given up all year is 35 yards...only the Bengals can top that.

I'm benching Wayne for Jerome Harrison but I'm considering playing Austin Collie. Does anyone else think he's a sneaky play? Garcon is banged up, and Revis can't cover everyone...can he? I know Welker lit up the Jets as they focused on shutting down Moss - could we see a similar thing this week?

Great post, now the one thing that New York shows that Wes Welker exploited is their 3rd and 4th DBs...Reevis might be the foshizzle but not all the Jets DBs are top notch. And I think where Indy will have success is Garcon and Collie in the slots but I know I am going to be in the minority camp on that. Welker had 15/192, Edelman had 8/98 and that would have been Welker if he was healthy but he didn't play them in meeting #1.

Andre Johnson- 4/35

R.Moss- 4/24

Marques Colston-2/33...do I need to keep going?

Why not...

Terrell Owens- 3/13

MSW- 3/49/TD...that was a bright spot

Steve Smith(Car)- 1/5...that's not a misprint

Terrell Owens again-3/31

Antonio Bryant- 2/22

Roddy White -4/33

Seriously, no upside this week for Reggie Wayne.

 

[hoopvillian]

I traded for Warner mid-season even though I had Manning, anticipating this matchup and possible half-game played.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I see people with a lot of POV on the Colts and whether they should play them this week or not, folks the reason to bench the Colts this week has nothing to do with them starting and finishing, that is simply icing on the cake. Let's dissect the Jets defense and why the Colts are going to fail miserably this week.

2. RB-I don't think you would have to twist Addai owners arms all that hard to get them to sit Addai so I won't spend a lot of time there, but the Jets have been great against the run, only MJD did any real damage to them.

Great against the run? I don't think so MOP.....certainly great against the pass, but their run defense has allowed:- 9 TD runs.....certainly better than league average of 11.4, but not like they are the Patriots (3), Vikings (4), or Packers (5).....

Ravens, Cowboys, and Steelers have allowed six or seven

- 103 yards per game rushing (average)...again better than league average (115.7) but not like it is less than 100 like 49ers, Steelers, Vikings, Packers, Cowboys, or Bengals

So good, NOT great

The JETS are certainly a good defense, but aside from the real problem - lack of competent alternatives with good matchups who are full time players, I think there are a few other reasons why the Colts will prevail

1) They ARE at home

2) They will try and go un-defeated and have only Buffalo left after this week

3) With a first round bye, it will be weeks before they play their first playoff game and want their stars to maintain a "game edge".....yes if people are nicked up, they would rest them, but they have next week and their bye week as well

4) Peyton Manning

Right now I can' see sitting any of the Colts you would normally play - certainly Wayne, covered to some degree by Revis is not a great play, but do you really have someone on your bench who is a BETTER play? I don't........this was thrown around last week as well - if any of you sat Colts on that weak sauce......how did it work out for you?

They are giving up 3.8 ypc, good enough for 5th in the NFL. Their pass defense is so good teams have to run, but they aren't too effective at it. ETA: The longest run they've given up all year is 35 yards...only the Bengals can top that.

I'm benching Wayne for Jerome Harrison but I'm considering playing Austin Collie. Does anyone else think he's a sneaky play? Garcon is banged up, and Revis can't cover everyone...can he? I know Welker lit up the Jets as they focused on shutting down Moss - could we see a similar thing this week?

Great post, now the one thing that New York shows that Wes Welker exploited is their 3rd and 4th DBs...Reevis might be the foshizzle but not all the Jets DBs are top notch. And I think where Indy will have success is Garcon and Collie in the slots but I know I am going to be in the minority camp on that. Welker had 15/192, Edelman had 8/98 and that would have been Welker if he was healthy but he didn't play them in meeting #1.

Andre Johnson- 4/35

R.Moss- 4/24

Marques Colston-2/33...do I need to keep going?

Why not...

Terrell Owens- 3/13

MSW- 3/49/TD...that was a bright spot

Steve Smith(Car)- 1/5...that's not a misprint

Terrell Owens again-3/31

Antonio Bryant- 2/22

Roddy White -4/33

Seriously, no upside this week for Reggie Wayne.

Actually as to Collie/Garcon speaking of the WR2/3 vs the Jets they haven't done that well either.And Gonzo may finally make a re-appearance.

Welker/Edelman being the exception.

And even with the Welker/Edelman games, Brady did not have great FF days there, relatively mediocre (week 11 was ok, 17 points in one league) to poor (week 2) for him.

 

[moleculo]

I may be downgrading Wayne from WR1 to WR3, but WR3 is still a starter - I just can't expect 5/100/1 this week.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I may be downgrading Wayne from WR1 to WR3, but WR3 is still a starter - I just can't expect 5/100/1 this week.

Are you OK with 3/40?

 

[Rovers]

I see people with a lot of POV on the Colts and whether they should play them this week or not, folks the reason to bench the Colts this week has nothing to do with them starting and finishing, that is simply icing on the cake. Let's dissect the Jets defense and why the Colts are going to fail miserably this week.

2. RB-I don't think you would have to twist Addai owners arms all that hard to get them to sit Addai so I won't spend a lot of time there, but the Jets have been great against the run, only MJD did any real damage to them.

Great against the run? I don't think so MOP.....certainly great against the pass, but their run defense has allowed:- 9 TD runs.....certainly better than league average of 11.4, but not like they are the Patriots (3), Vikings (4), or Packers (5).....

Ravens, Cowboys, and Steelers have allowed six or seven

- 103 yards per game rushing (average)...again better than league average (115.7) but not like it is less than 100 like 49ers, Steelers, Vikings, Packers, Cowboys, or Bengals

So good, NOT great

The JETS are certainly a good defense, but aside from the real problem - lack of competent alternatives with good matchups who are full time players, I think there are a few other reasons why the Colts will prevail

1) They ARE at home

2) They will try and go un-defeated and have only Buffalo left after this week

3) With a first round bye, it will be weeks before they play their first playoff game and want their stars to maintain a "game edge".....yes if people are nicked up, they would rest them, but they have next week and their bye week as well

4) Peyton Manning

Right now I can' see sitting any of the Colts you would normally play - certainly Wayne, covered to some degree by Revis is not a great play, but do you really have someone on your bench who is a BETTER play? I don't........this was thrown around last week as well - if any of you sat Colts on that weak sauce......how did it work out for you?

They are giving up 3.8 ypc, good enough for 5th in the NFL. Their pass defense is so good teams have to run, but they aren't too effective at it. ETA: The longest run they've given up all year is 35 yards...only the Bengals can top that.

I'm benching Wayne for Jerome Harrison but I'm considering playing Austin Collie. Does anyone else think he's a sneaky play? Garcon is banged up, and Revis can't cover everyone...can he? I know Welker lit up the Jets as they focused on shutting down Moss - could we see a similar thing this week?

Great post, now the one thing that New York shows that Wes Welker exploited is their 3rd and 4th DBs...Reevis might be the foshizzle but not all the Jets DBs are top notch. And I think where Indy will have success is Garcon and Collie in the slots but I know I am going to be in the minority camp on that. Welker had 15/192, Edelman had 8/98 and that would have been Welker if he was healthy but he didn't play them in meeting #1.

Andre Johnson- 4/35

R.Moss- 4/24

Marques Colston-2/33...do I need to keep going?

Why not...

Terrell Owens- 3/13

MSW- 3/49/TD...that was a bright spot

Steve Smith(Car)- 1/5...that's not a misprint

Terrell Owens again-3/31

Antonio Bryant- 2/22

Roddy White -4/33

Seriously, no upside this week for Reggie Wayne.

You make a valid point about weak spots in the Jets' secondary after Revis. Don't think R Ryan doesn't know that too. Last week Ryan called some zone coverages and Revis was not manned up on white for the entire game. I can see a chance that Ryan plays a lot more nickel and zone against Indy this week. Even if Wayne can be taken out of the game by Revis, the Colts simply have too many other weapons to choose from. Denver shut Wayne down, but Manning shredded the Broncos anyway. Honestly, I don't think Revis will be exclusively in man coverage on Wayne. Ryan has surely looked at the film from the Denver game.

I don't think Ryan will ask his LB's to cover Clark either. That is why I look for a lot of nickel D from the Jets. And zone.

Revis gets manned up against players like Moss, S Smith, TO.... teams that don't possess multiple scoring threats. Why did Ryan play more zone against Atlanta? Jenkins and Gonzalez can burn you too. Multiple threats. The Colts have even more options. You can shut Wayne down and still get lit up. So, Revis I suspect will roam a bot more, looking to keep Manning guessing as to where he will be and Revis will be looking for the big play.

Manning will be looking for Revis on every snap. Ryan will do his best to keep Manning guessing.

 

[Chase Stuart]

There are those who will say the Jets will be devastated and the Colts have had extra time to prepare. Well, OK, but for this team being out of the playoffs this *is* their SB. Every team brings it against the undefeated week in and week out. To me the biggest problem for the Jets is Sanchez.

I think just the opposite; the Jets are far from devastated but have been given new life. If they win their last two games, they'll probably make the playoffs.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

You make a valid point about weak spots in the Jets' secondary after Revis. Don't think R Ryan doesn't know that too. Last week Ryan called some zone coverages and Revis was not manned up on white for the entire game. I can see a chance that Ryan plays a lot more nickel and zone against Indy this week. Even if Wayne can be taken out of the game by Revis, the Colts simply have too many other weapons to choose from. Denver shut Wayne down, but Manning shredded the Broncos anyway. Honestly, I don't think Revis will be exclusively in man coverage on Wayne. Ryan has surely looked at the film from the Denver game. I don't think Ryan will ask his LB's to cover Clark either. That is why I look for a lot of nickel D from the Jets. And zone. Revis gets manned up against players like Moss, S Smith, TO.... teams that don't possess multiple scoring threats. Why did Ryan play more zone against Atlanta? Jenkins and Gonzalez can burn you too. Multiple threats. The Colts have even more options. You can shut Wayne down and still get lit up. So, Revis I suspect will roam a bot more, looking to keep Manning guessing as to where he will be and Revis will be looking for the big play. Manning will be looking for Revis on every snap. Ryan will do his best to keep Manning guessing.

You make some excellent points. And I think because they will play the nickel and zone packages you are talking about that the option manning will dial up is Austin Collie. Garcon I thought I read somewhere was hurt and I think Collie in the slot will be open when he wants to go there.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There are those who will say the Jets will be devastated and the Colts have had extra time to prepare. Well, OK, but for this team being out of the playoffs this *is* their SB. Every team brings it against the undefeated week in and week out. To me the biggest problem for the Jets is Sanchez.

I think just the opposite; the Jets are far from devastated but have been given new life. If they win their last two games, they'll probably make the playoffs.

Do enlighten us Chase, dying to hear your take on this game.

 

[bryan215]

Peyton will be chilling on the sidelines after the 1st half

 

[grapeape]

Oh boy. In one of my SB matchups, my team has Manning, and I have no other QB on my roster. The best available FAs you ask? Frye, Stanton, Null, C-Pep, and Russell. I might only get a quarter or 1 half from Manning, but that's probably the best option I've got.

 

[Chase Stuart]

There are those who will say the Jets will be devastated and the Colts have had extra time to prepare. Well, OK, but for this team being out of the playoffs this *is* their SB. Every team brings it against the undefeated week in and week out. To me the biggest problem for the Jets is Sanchez.

I think just the opposite; the Jets are far from devastated but have been given new life. If they win their last two games, they'll probably make the playoffs.

Do enlighten us Chase, dying to hear your take on this game.

I think the Jets pass D is every bit as good as the Colts pass O. An excellent pass defense vs. an excellent pass offense. I think a lot of people confuse excellent with perfect, at least when it comes to defense. What I mean by that is if a defense messes up a few times, especially in key situations, people tend to think that the defense isn't great. But that's not the mark of a great defense. This isn't the 1970s, when a great pass defense just totally shuts down a great pass offense. Now, it's about containment. An elite defense may give up a key late TD, because of all of the rule changes in the game over the last 35 years to open up the offenses. But that team's offense gets to benefit from those rules, too. So while you might argue that this makes defense less important, I don't think that's the case; it just changes the baseline.I expect the Colts O to perform about as well against the Jets D as an average passing offense would against an average pass defense. That means about 235 yards, 1.4 TDs, 1 INT and 20 points. I think the Jets are a bad matchup for the Colts, as New York can run well to limit the number of possessions in the game, win the battle of field position, and score some points. The pass defense is the best in the league, which is obviously not a good matchup for a pass heavy team like the Colts. I also think we see the good Sanchez, as he's been bothered by the weather in some of his bad games. He's used to nice conditions, and the dome should help that.Looking at the matchups, the only area I see the Colts with the clear advantage is when the Jets are passing. Sanchez is below average, the Colts pass D is above average. But the Jets run O is better than the Colts run D, the Jets run D is better than the Colts run O, and the Colts pass O and the Jets pass D are a push. I think these two teams are much closer than the average fan realizes, and if Sanchez has two or fewer turnovers, the Jets probably win. Except for the Saints and Pats games, where Sanchez imploded early and often, the Jets have won every other game, been winning late in every other game, or had a chance to win in the final minute of every other game. This is a team that I think is much better than its record, although I could understand if you wanted to say I've got glasses on.

 

[tigerz]

Other guys aside, the one colts player everyone should sit would be Wayne. Just too much working against him. You have to be pretty slow to not see what Revis does to number 1 WRs. Thinking he's going to break the streak is a gamble in itself. You're relying on him to score a TD to salvage what should be a ~40 yard day. However, what we know about the Colts is that they throw it to the open man so I don't see why Manning would force it to Wayne at all. For this reason and lack of other options, I think Clark is the safest out of all the Colts players. I'd rather roll with someone like Antonio Bryant over Reggie Wayne. Possibly even as low as Chaz Shilens but don't quote me on that.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There are those who will say the Jets will be devastated and the Colts have had extra time to prepare. Well, OK, but for this team being out of the playoffs this *is* their SB. Every team brings it against the undefeated week in and week out. To me the biggest problem for the Jets is Sanchez.

I think just the opposite; the Jets are far from devastated but have been given new life. If they win their last two games, they'll probably make the playoffs.

Do enlighten us Chase, dying to hear your take on this game.

I think the Jets pass D is every bit as good as the Colts pass O. An excellent pass defense vs. an excellent pass offense. I think a lot of people confuse excellent with perfect, at least when it comes to defense. What I mean by that is if a defense messes up a few times, especially in key situations, people tend to think that the defense isn't great. But that's not the mark of a great defense. This isn't the 1970s, when a great pass defense just totally shuts down a great pass offense. Now, it's about containment. An elite defense may give up a key late TD, because of all of the rule changes in the game over the last 35 years to open up the offenses. But that team's offense gets to benefit from those rules, too. So while you might argue that this makes defense less important, I don't think that's the case; it just changes the baseline.I expect the Colts O to perform about as well against the Jets D as an average passing offense would against an average pass defense. That means about 235 yards, 1.4 TDs, 1 INT and 20 points. I think the Jets are a bad matchup for the Colts, as New York can run well to limit the number of possessions in the game, win the battle of field position, and score some points. The pass defense is the best in the league, which is obviously not a good matchup for a pass heavy team like the Colts. I also think we see the good Sanchez, as he's been bothered by the weather in some of his bad games. He's used to nice conditions, and the dome should help that.Looking at the matchups, the only area I see the Colts with the clear advantage is when the Jets are passing. Sanchez is below average, the Colts pass D is above average. But the Jets run O is better than the Colts run D, the Jets run D is better than the Colts run O, and the Colts pass O and the Jets pass D are a push. I think these two teams are much closer than the average fan realizes, and if Sanchez has two or fewer turnovers, the Jets probably win. Except for the Saints and Pats games, where Sanchez imploded early and often, the Jets have won every other game, been winning late in every other game, or had a chance to win in the final minute of every other game. This is a team that I think is much better than its record, although I could understand if you wanted to say I've got glasses on.

And there you have it folks...the MOP and Chase KoD this week so start your Colts with confidence.

 

[bulger2holt]

So I am supposed to sit Wayne for Coles ? I don't think so.

 

[tigerz]

So I am supposed to sit Wayne for Coles ? I don't think so.

Well,to be perfectly honest this is week 16. Great fantasy players should have seen this coming weeks in advance and have prepared an alternative for this week considering it's the most important week for a lot of us... If you have scrubs then by all means start him but he's just not that attractive of an option this week. He could snap the streak and get 100 yards 1 TD but that's so unlikely I just wouldn't have wanted to count on that happening. He had a cold streak before last week and people were down on him for that game. Don't see how people would feel more confident about him this game with a worse matchup.

 

[Rovers]

Other guys aside, the one colts player everyone should sit would be Wayne. Just too much working against him. You have to be pretty slow to not see what Revis does to number 1 WRs. Thinking he's going to break the streak is a gamble in itself. You're relying on him to score a TD to salvage what should be a ~40 yard day. However, what we know about the Colts is that they throw it to the open man so I don't see why Manning would force it to Wayne at all. For this reason and lack of other options, I think Clark is the safest out of all the Colts players. I'd rather roll with someone like Antonio Bryant over Reggie Wayne. Possibly even as low as Chaz Shilens but don't quote me on that.

So, you KNOW that Revis will be on Wayne the entire game? Well, you know alot more than I do. Sounds like you know more than the INDY CS too.

 

[tigerz]

Other guys aside, the one colts player everyone should sit would be Wayne. Just too much working against him. You have to be pretty slow to not see what Revis does to number 1 WRs. Thinking he's going to break the streak is a gamble in itself. You're relying on him to score a TD to salvage what should be a ~40 yard day. However, what we know about the Colts is that they throw it to the open man so I don't see why Manning would force it to Wayne at all. For this reason and lack of other options, I think Clark is the safest out of all the Colts players. I'd rather roll with someone like Antonio Bryant over Reggie Wayne. Possibly even as low as Chaz Shilens but don't quote me on that.

So, you KNOW that Revis will be on Wayne the entire game? Well, you know alot more than I do. Sounds like you know more than the INDY CS too.

Hey man, I'm not saying I have a crystal ball here.. No one has a crystal ball. There may be a couple plays where he's not on him but seriously, he should be on him for a great majority of the plays. For him not to cover Wayne is just ridiculous. And when he does cover Wayne we know that Revis pretty much shuts down these receivers. I'm just thinking about most likely scenario like everyone else... Is there really reason to think Wayne will not be focused on as the main threat? I didn't look at the data, but it would be nice to look at the breakdown of No.1 and No.2 threats on teams, especially like the Falcons game with White and Gonzalez to see how many plays Revis was on both as well as the Patriots games with Welker/Moss. If you break those down and maybe a couple others you could probably have as good of an estimation of how often he will line up against Wayne. I could do that and it would probably make it more convincing but I have no stake in this game since my league with Wayne ends playoffs at w15 and I'm just so busy with it being so close to Christmas that I don't have time to put in another huge post with data. Granted, this is all conjecture... We go with what we think is most likely to happen and make judgements based on that. I still don't see why people think analysis and trying to figure out what might happen in a game is useless but I guess if you really want Wayne to come through then it doesn't matter what people say. I admitted there is variance... Wayne's best shot at getting 100 yards and a TD is if he isn't followed majority of the day by Revis so it is possible, but I'm just saying it's not looking good which I thought would be more obvious by now but I guess I was wrong and people should always start their studs because everything is unpredictable.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

There are those who will say the Jets will be devastated and the Colts have had extra time to prepare. Well, OK, but for this team being out of the playoffs this *is* their SB. Every team brings it against the undefeated week in and week out. To me the biggest problem for the Jets is Sanchez.

I think just the opposite; the Jets are far from devastated but have been given new life. If they win their last two games, they'll probably make the playoffs.

Do enlighten us Chase, dying to hear your take on this game.

I think the Jets pass D is every bit as good as the Colts pass O. An excellent pass defense vs. an excellent pass offense. I think a lot of people confuse excellent with perfect, at least when it comes to defense. What I mean by that is if a defense messes up a few times, especially in key situations, people tend to think that the defense isn't great. But that's not the mark of a great defense. This isn't the 1970s, when a great pass defense just totally shuts down a great pass offense. Now, it's about containment. An elite defense may give up a key late TD, because of all of the rule changes in the game over the last 35 years to open up the offenses. But that team's offense gets to benefit from those rules, too. So while you might argue that this makes defense less important, I don't think that's the case; it just changes the baseline.I expect the Colts O to perform about as well against the Jets D as an average passing offense would against an average pass defense. That means about 235 yards, 1.4 TDs, 1 INT and 20 points. I think the Jets are a bad matchup for the Colts, as New York can run well to limit the number of possessions in the game, win the battle of field position, and score some points. The pass defense is the best in the league, which is obviously not a good matchup for a pass heavy team like the Colts. I also think we see the good Sanchez, as he's been bothered by the weather in some of his bad games. He's used to nice conditions, and the dome should help that.Looking at the matchups, the only area I see the Colts with the clear advantage is when the Jets are passing. Sanchez is below average, the Colts pass D is above average. But the Jets run O is better than the Colts run D, the Jets run D is better than the Colts run O, and the Colts pass O and the Jets pass D are a push. I think these two teams are much closer than the average fan realizes, and if Sanchez has two or fewer turnovers, the Jets probably win. Except for the Saints and Pats games, where Sanchez imploded early and often, the Jets have won every other game, been winning late in every other game, or had a chance to win in the final minute of every other game. This is a team that I think is much better than its record, although I could understand if you wanted to say I've got glasses on.

And there you have it folks...the MOP and Chase KoD this week so start your Colts with confidence.

LOL actually this is exactly what I was thinking

 

[Philo]

I don't see Manning lying down when this is the best pass D he's faced all season, I kind of think they'd want to test themselves against the best going into the playoffs, rather than just rest up and go in without seeing if they've got what it takes to beat all comers.

 

[thecardiackid]

I may be downgrading Wayne from WR1 to WR3, but WR3 is still a starter - I just can't expect 5/100/1 this week.

Are you OK with 3/40?

then factor in his sore foot and possible early exit. full disclosure: i'm vs. wayne in one SB, and of course biased.

 

[CiderHouse]

I see people with a lot of POV on the Colts and whether they should play them this week or not, folks the reason to bench the Colts this week has nothing to do with them starting and finishing, that is simply icing on the cake. Let's dissect the Jets defense and why the Colts are going to fail miserably this week. 1. QB-Now the Jets have played a who's who of bad QBs this year that will skew the numbers a bit for many. But outside of Tom Brady throwing for 300 and a TD a few weeks back, no other QB has crossed 250 yds passing against the Jets. In fact only 2 other QBs threw for 200+ yds all season and that was Chadd Henne in week 5, and David Garrard a couple weeks ago. Henne is the only QB to throw for 2 TDs in 1 game. All other games this year they have either held the opposing QB to zero or 1 TD. Now some of these QBs include Fitz/Edwards, Gradkowski/Russell, Jake Delhomme, Josh Freeman, but there is also names like Schaub, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees. I don't like the match up although Manning is capable of burning any defense in any era. 2. RB-I don't think you would have to twist Addai owners arms all that hard to get them to sit Addai so I won't spend a lot of time there, but the Jets have been great against the run, only MJD did any real damage to them.3. WR-Welker went 15/192 one game but outside of that, seriously most WRs end up with about 30-60 yds most weeks and as I said only Miami has thrown for 2 TDs in a game all season so you won't find many cheap TDs to be had here. 4. TE-I love Dallas Clark but if you have another option like Finley from GB for example, this might be the week to get him into your starting line up. No TE has more than 4 receptions all season, not a single one. 2 TEs, both from the Miami Dolphins and the last second heroics of Tony Gonzalez last week are the only TDs for TEs all year. I know Indy is way better than a lot of teams the Jets faced this year but the match up for the Colts is not juicy. I actually will go out on a limb and even predict that the Jets will win this Sunday and put an end to the unbeaten streak for the Colts with the final score being 20-17 in what will be a very frustrating day for Indy fans and FF owners who roll with them this week. Statistically, I find it hard to want to play Indy, throw in the red herrings of how long they play for and I expect a lot of tears come Sunday Night.

Also please tell us what Ricky Williams stat line will look like

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Also please tell us what Ricky Williams stat line will look like

He has 4 fumbles in 2 weeks, just sayin...He has double digits every week in PPR since week 9, 19 points 2 weeks ago, 17 last week, but I am not a huge Ricky supporter and have not been on his tip much this season so I likely won't change now. I do owe Pimpin Aint Easy a huge "you were right", but he's been pimpin Ricky since before last season(2008) so he was driving the bus since the inception of the Parcells era here in Miami or as he refers to it...Dallas East.

 

[Rovers]

Other guys aside, the one colts player everyone should sit would be Wayne. Just too much working against him. You have to be pretty slow to not see what Revis does to number 1 WRs. Thinking he's going to break the streak is a gamble in itself. You're relying on him to score a TD to salvage what should be a ~40 yard day. However, what we know about the Colts is that they throw it to the open man so I don't see why Manning would force it to Wayne at all. For this reason and lack of other options, I think Clark is the safest out of all the Colts players. I'd rather roll with someone like Antonio Bryant over Reggie Wayne. Possibly even as low as Chaz Shilens but don't quote me on that.

So, you KNOW that Revis will be on Wayne the entire game? Well, you know alot more than I do. Sounds like you know more than the INDY CS too.

Hey man, I'm not saying I have a crystal ball here.. No one has a crystal ball. There may be a couple plays where he's not on him but seriously, he should be on him for a great majority of the plays. For him not to cover Wayne is just ridiculous. And when he does cover Wayne we know that Revis pretty much shuts down these receivers. I'm just thinking about most likely scenario like everyone else... Is there really reason to think Wayne will not be focused on as the main threat? I didn't look at the data, but it would be nice to look at the breakdown of No.1 and No.2 threats on teams, especially like the Falcons game with White and Gonzalez to see how many plays Revis was on both as well as the Patriots games with Welker/Moss. If you break those down and maybe a couple others you could probably have as good of an estimation of how often he will line up against Wayne. I could do that and it would probably make it more convincing but I have no stake in this game since my league with Wayne ends playoffs at w15 and I'm just so busy with it being so close to Christmas that I don't have time to put in another huge post with data. Granted, this is all conjecture... We go with what we think is most likely to happen and make judgements based on that. I still don't see why people think analysis and trying to figure out what might happen in a game is useless but I guess if you really want Wayne to come through then it doesn't matter what people say. I admitted there is variance... Wayne's best shot at getting 100 yards and a TD is if he isn't followed majority of the day by Revis so it is possible, but I'm just saying it's not looking good which I thought would be more obvious by now but I guess I was wrong and people should always start their studs because everything is unpredictable.

I am benching Wayne for S Smith NYG, FWIW. I won't bet that Revis won't be glued to Wayne, but I suspect he won't be. The reason is twofold:Revis was not on White last week for about 35% of the snaps. The Jets were in zone for those plays, and I suspect it was because they were just as concerned about Gonzalez and Jenkins. No, I don't have the actual game breakdowns, but I did watch the game twice. Was it Bly or Bailey that shut Wayne down last week? I've read it was Bly that was on him. Still, Manning torched the Denver pass D. You can take Wayne out of the game, and still get lit up by Manning. That point is proven. Denver proved it. Ryan is as close to a defensive genius as there is in the NFL. Surely, he has studied the Denver tapes. Will he try to use the same scheme and hope it works out any better? If Ryan would go to some zone against ATL because they have a "3 threat" set of pass recievers, what will he do against Indy who has four or more? Especially given what the Jets did defensively last week, I honestly don't expect Revis to be in man coverage on Wayne for much (maybe as much as 50%) of the game. I think Ryan will try to move him around and be as disruptive as possible all over the field. Revis never blitzes. I would not be shocked if he did once or twice this week. Again, I think Ryan will try to use Revis in ways Manning just doesn't expect. That is what Ryan always tries to do... disguise and surprise. Manning is the absolute master at reading defenses. Indy may go in thinking Wayne is a decoy with Revis on him. Ryan might be thinking the same thing.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Indy may go in thinking Wayne is a decoy with Revis on him. Ryan might be thinking the same thing.

....or you may be overthinking.

 

[moleculo]

Indy may go in thinking Wayne is a decoy with Revis on him. Ryan might be thinking the same thing.

....or you may be overthinking.

clearly, Ryan knows that Caldwell would be aware of Ryan thinking that Wayne will be a decoy, so Caldwell would then be smart to use Wayne.Ryan is Sicilian, right?

 

[moleculo]

...Was it Bly or Bailey that shut Wayne down last week? I've read it was Bly that was on him. Still, Manning torched the Denver pass D. You can take Wayne out of the game, and still get lit up by Manning. That point is proven. Denver proved it. ...

I'd double check your sources. Bly is no longer a Bronco.in my recollection, Bailey was on Wayne most of the game - he even followed Wayne around the field instead of staying only on the left side like he has done in the past.As far as Manning is concerned - he really struggled vs the Den D for most of the second half. His stat line wasn't that great, with the obvious exception of the 4 TD's, three of which were from 5 yards out or less. He really didn't light up the Broncos in the sense that he marched up and down the field - he simply did what he had to do in the red zone.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Indy may go in thinking Wayne is a decoy with Revis on him. Ryan might be thinking the same thing.

....or you may be overthinking.

clearly, Ryan knows that Caldwell would be aware of Ryan thinking that Wayne will be a decoy, so Caldwell would then be smart to use Wayne.Ryan is Sicilian, right?

 

[moleculo]

I may be downgrading Wayne from WR1 to WR3, but WR3 is still a starter - I just can't expect 5/100/1 this week.

Are you OK with 3/40?

I am not, but I'm not sure my WR4 is more likely to exceed that. WR4 for me is Cotchery or Josh Morgan - either guy could exceed 3/40, but then again, they might not. IMO Wayne has a higher chance of putting up a big game than either of those guys.I'm typically of the opinion that "you dance with who brought you", and "start your studs", but it's still early and I reserve the right to change my mind.

 

[ninerfan]

I have Manning and I'm not worried about his match-up with the Jets' D as much as I'm concerned with his playing time. I'd hate to lose a championship because my star QB only played half the game. I'd rather roll the dice on Alex Smith this week.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

How well did Peyton Manning play the last time he faced a Rex Ryan defense?

 

[djcolts]

How well did Peyton Manning play the last time he faced a Rex Ryan defense?

He went 19/28 for 271 with 3 TDs 0 Ints, last year.http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=281012011

 

[djcolts]

This game may cement whether Peyton wins another MVP or not. I'm not sure if that matters to the Colts at all or not (it wont matter to them officially - but they have in the past played players in "meaningless" games to get milestones). As of right now - Peyton would win the MVP in a landslide. The Jets can change that this week.

LINK

 

[The Dude]

With all respect, if you are arguing to sit guys, you're nuts. If you are arguing that some of these guys will not produce top 5 this week, I can buy that. If you think when all is said and done Manning is not top 5 this week - providing he plays the full game - you can tell your story walking.

You may be correct but there's no way I am sitting Manning.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

Do I play Reggie Wayne in the Super Bowl?

I have played him all year.

I know that if Revis shadows him all game he will contain him

The FBG projections have Wayne as the #7 WR this week.???????

The JETS did play some zone last week vs Atlanta (and it burned them on the lone scoring drive)

Wayne may not play the whole game.

Who do I play if I bench Wayne? Likely Jason Snelling (I can start an extra RB if bench Wayne).

Still undecided. Leaning towards Snelling

 

[CaptainTapp]

The Broncos D has been pretty solid against elite QB's as well. Barring a good effort from Big Ben, and a decent effort for Brady, the Broncos haven't given much at all. Rivers did very little against them in either game they played, neither did Romo or Palmer. But when Denver travelled to Indy they gave up 220 and 4 td's to Peyton. Sure, Peyton was only 20 for 42 with 3 INT's, but who wouldn't take 220 and 4td's any day of the year from their QB?

I'm a Bronco hater so I have to stick my nose in this: Rivers did little against them because SD went up quick and turned to the run game. Denver got beat by Jamarcus Russel last week. Their pass D shows up every two or three games.That said Peyton can tear apart any D, and the Jets are somewhat overrated. Yes Revis is a beast, so it is questionable to start Wayne this week. But trust me, Peyton will find Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, or Addai. The Jets just blitz blitz blitz and rely on Revis to shut-down a team's #1 guy, and for most teams that shuts down the pass. I would not bet against Peyton, unless of course they sit him early because the game is meaningless.

 

[[icon]]

I think the Jets blah blah blahblah blah blahblah blah blah, and if Sanchez has two or fewer turnovers, the Jets probably win. Except for blah blah , although I could understand if you wanted to say I've got glasses on.

You must be loading up on JEts +190 eh? This won't be a blowout, so Peyton will be on the field for the majority of the game...again. This is not week 17... the Colts, regardless of what they say, would love to go 16-0.

 

[gianmarco]

Here's my customary "these threads never end well".

I know it's a big week, but there's a lot of overthinking here. Unless you have a solid option......

 

[C-Bound]

Peyton Manning indicated that the Colts offensive players will not lobby to play a full game this week.

Coach Jim Caldwell suggested that all healthy players will start, but he wouldn't promise that they'd play beyond the first series. Against the Jets' No. 1 ranked defense, we'd feel comfortable benching all Colts this week.