The "Reggie Wayne" question will finally be answered (1 Viewer)

[shader]

There has long been a debate regarding Reggie Wayne (and Harrison for that matter) and whether he is or isn't an elite player.

I think this year that question gets answered. Elite WR's typically do very well no matter who the QB is. Calvin dominated last year with scrubs. Britt played great last year with Kerry Collins as the QB, and he shouldn't be close to Wayne's level.

For years I've argued that Wayne is not truly that great of a WR, but Manning made him a stud. Not that he won't be good...but he's not THAT good.

Granted, this may not tell the whole story, as Wayne's career seems on the slide anyway...but it will be interesting to see how the offensive players on the Colts respond to not having Peyton.

(By the way, as a guy who has been a Manning hater for 15 years (Bama fan and Titan fan), I'm the first to say that I hope Manning can get healthy and get back soon. His career has to end sometime, but I don't think any of us are quite ready to see it end right now.)

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Fitz...never mind

 

[bulger2holt]

Do QB's make WR's or do WR's make QB's ?

 

[thriftyrocker]

There is a whole spectrum of bad QBing. Having Collins or Grossman or Cassel is completely different from having Skelton or Clausen or Tarvaris.

 

[mcd]

Wasn't Wayne looking for a contract extension also? Really bad timing in his case to lose Manning for the season.

 

[mr roboto]

Do QB's make WR's or do WR's make QB's ?

Jesus made both of them.-Michelle Bachman

 

[Run It Up]

Think its unfair to pin this on just one player. IMO, its time to see if what people say about the colts is true or not. Im of the the opinion that its BS, Peyton Manning is undoubtedly one of the two best QBs of all time, but his team was manufactured as an offensive powerhouse and to suggest he is the only QB that can run that team is just bull.

 

[Vicktimized]

Dunno how fair it is to judge Wayne on a single season that comes, in all likelihood, after the true prime of his career. In any event it will probably take a fair amount of time for he or anyone else to get rolling with Collins, who basically just got there, even if there is potential to click.

 

[rocketsauce]

I say Wayne stays a top 10 WR in PPR scoring. And I'm pretty much putting my money where my mouth is as he's my WR1. Wishful thinking? Probably. I think Wayne will enjoy this challenge, and the chance to be the new leader of the team.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

Hey if some scrub named Curtis Painter can do this...

Curtis Painter passed to Reggie Wayne to the left for 57 yard gain for TD(Adam Vinatieri made PAT)

and have Wayne's stat line looks like this...

6 receptions 105 yards, TD

against a Green Bay secondary, why can't an experienced QB like Kerry Collins do the same?

 

[shader]

Hey if some scrub named Curtis Painter can do this...Curtis Painter passed to Reggie Wayne to the left for 57 yard gain for TD(Adam Vinatieri made PAT)and have Wayne's stat line looks like this...6 receptions 105 yards, TDagainst a Green Bay secondary, why can't an experienced QB like Kerry Collins do the same?

Perhaps this will happen. We will see. (When was that game btw? Seriously I don't recall it?)

 

[shader]

Fitz...never mind

Not a bad point. Fitz looked average last year with crap at QB, though it wasn't his fault necessarily.Bottom line is that it takes SOME SORT OF TALENT at QB for a receiver to succeed.But is Wayne a perennial top ten receiver with Matt Cassell as his QB? I don't know. Interesting question.

 

[rocketsauce]

The Painter TD was actually a completely blown coverage where Wayne walked into the end zone, but hey, those count too.

I'm hoping Collins locks into Wayne, knowing he'll be in the right place every time. Garcon seems to have those lapses in the past where he wasn't where Peyton wanted him to be, and maybe Peyton passes that info along to Collins, who knows.

 

[footballnerd]

Think its unfair to pin this on just one player. IMO, its time to see if what people say about the colts is true or not. Im of the the opinion that its BS, Peyton Manning is undoubtedly one of the two best QBs of all time, but his team was manufactured as an offensive powerhouse and to suggest he is the only QB that can run that team is just bull.

Aaron Rodgers agrees

 

[Hoss Style]

Fitz...never mind

Not a bad point. Fitz looked average last year with crap at QB, though it wasn't his fault necessarily.Bottom line is that it takes SOME SORT OF TALENT at QB for a receiver to succeed.

But is Wayne a perennial top ten receiver with Matt Cassell as his QB?

I don't know. Interesting question.

Fitz didn't look average last year. As someone who watched every catch he made (and wasn't able to make) he grabbed almost everything humanly possible. He still finished well (with maybe the worst QB/Stud WR situation I can remember).I'm thinking MOP mentioned Fitz as in you forgot to mention him - since he probably had the worst QB situation last year and still produced fairly well.

At least I hope that's what he meant.

*Edit* Just went and double checked - He finished 4th in receptions and 8th in yards with a sack of chips throwing him the ball all year.

 

[chidoy]

I agree with OP that Wayne is not an "elite" WR.... nor was Marvin...

As stated... Peyton is just that good. I don't ever recall Wayne or Marvin breaking any tackles, juking a db and taking it to the house, etc..... All their stuff was timing based and or Peyton could just get them the ball in-stride....

When I think of "elite" i think of Calvin or Fitz or AJ....

 

[Man In The Box]

Dunno how fair it is to judge Wayne on a single season that comes, in all likelihood, after the true prime of his career. In any event it will probably take a fair amount of time for he or anyone else to get rolling with Collins, who basically just got there, even if there is potential to click.

 

[Lash]

and the Dallas Clark question

and the Austin Collie question

and the Pierre Garcon question

and the Joseph Ad....err nevermind we know the answer to that one

 

[Bears_Man2]

Wayne's and Clark's redraft and dynasty value plummeted with the Manning loss.

I predict Wayne to be a low level PPR WR2 this year at best. (Curtis Painter would only help his value IMO. Playing for a contract, he knows that -- which is why you heard the noise from him a week or two ago)

Clark will be a bye week TE IMO

Going to be ugly watching Kerry there on short notice Wouldn't be surprised if he didn't last the season there. (whether due to injury or performance)

 

[moderated]

Wayne is a great talent "not elite" who played with an elite qb which made Wayne elite statistically.

He would have still been very good no matter where he went, but obviously having a HOF qb helps.

What would Jerry rice have been without young/Montana his whole career? Put him on a bad team and he wouldn't have went down as the GOAT.

 

[SSOG]

I agree with OP that Wayne is not an "elite" WR.... nor was Marvin... As stated... Peyton is just that good. I don't ever recall Wayne or Marvin breaking any tackles, juking a db and taking it to the house, etc..... All their stuff was timing based and or Peyton could just get them the ball in-stride....When I think of "elite" i think of Calvin or Fitz or AJ....

Marvin was without question elite. There's a lot more to playing WR than juking defenders or breaking tackles. In fact, I'd say the WR's two most important jobs are getting open and catching the ball... and you'll be hard-pressed to find 5 WRs over the past 20 years who were better at those two tasks. Who cares if he ducked out of bounds as soon as he heard footsteps? It's like old Cris Carter line about how all he did was catch TDs- all Marvin Harrison did was get open and catch footballs.

What would Jerry rice have been without young/Montana his whole career? Put him on a bad team and he wouldn't have went down as the GOAT.

 

[spider321]

Jerry Rice could've thrown the ball to himself and been the GOAT.

 

[Hoss Style]

Marvin was without question elite. There's a lot more to playing WR than juking defenders or breaking tackles. In fact, I'd say the WR's two most important jobs are getting open and catching the ball... and you'll be hard-pressed to find 5 WRs over the past 20 years who were better at those two tasks. Who cares if he ducked out of bounds as soon as he heard footsteps? It's like old Cris Carter line about how all he did was catch TDs- all Marvin Harrison did was get open and catch footballs.

*Ahead of time - I'm sorry for grammatical and punctual errors in the following post - I'm in a hurry and have to head out soon so can't double check*This whole Marvin thing got me thinking.

Marvin was elite. His numbers show it. You can't question numbers. They are there in black and white. I don't think anybody here would argue that fact.

I think more the question is why was he elite? Was it because he was an elite WR on his own merits? Or did Peyton make him elite? If I'm implying your post correctly you seem to be saying that Marvin would have been elite no matter - with or without Peyton. I wonder if the numbers support this. Even with all the stats in the world, though, we can only make an opinion here since no one knows how any player would actually perform on another team. That being said lets look at some numbers:

First, let me lay out my definition of "elite". Elite to me means a WR that is transcendent no matter the situation. For what I consider "elite" there are usually only 1 to 3 WR in the league at a time that are truly elite. Fitz last year is a great example. Horrible QB's yet he still made fantastic catches, made his QB's look better than they actually were (which is saying a lot) and his stats showed his de facto elite status with such failing parts around him: 4th in Rec, 8th in Yds and 11th in TDs. I honestly believe that maybe - maybe only 1 or 2 other WRs in the game today could have done what Fitz did with his supporting cast. But lets not get sidetracked on Fitz. I just used him as an example to define my definition of Elite.

So, by my definiton of elite do I think that Harrison could have done what Fitz did last year with the same team around him. A tricky question since Harrison has had Peyton for most of his career. What I'm looking for is what did Harrison do when he didn't have Peyton? His first two years he didn't have Peyton. He performed well for a rookie and as a sophomore garnering 64rec/836yds and 73/866. A solid start if he is to be considered elite, I'd say. But still early to say either/or. Since this was his only extended period of time with no Peyton we have to move on to another aspect of the equation.

1998 was Peyton's first year. Looking at the stats it's interesting to see who Peyton threw the ball to when he had no preconceived notions or relationships with any particular players. Peyton spread the ball around that first year - seeming to try to find his "go to" guy. His RB Faulk snagged 86 receptions. The next bunch (2nd through 4th) were all WRs with similar stats: Harrison getting 59, Pathon 50 and Small 45. This to me is interesting in that if Harrison was truly an "elite" option he would have stood head and shoulders above Pathon and Small as a target for Peyton. But he didn't. In fact Torrence Small had the same number of TD passes as Harrison in Peyton's first year. This would indicate that Peyton was looking to both of them equally to score. Let's look at the numbers even closer to find out if that was true.

Small and Harrison both had 7TDs in Peyton's first year. How many of those were thrown to each player inside the 20 yard line - the area where a team is looking to score oftentimes when passing - not just to gain yards. Small and Harrison combined for 8 TDs inside the 20 yard line. Small had 5 and Harrison 3. So Peyton was getting the ball to Small more than Harrison in the Red Zone. If Harrison was truly elite you would think he would be the main go to guy in that area, right? It was Harrison's 3rd year in the league so he should be established enough that Peyton would trust him more if he was head and shoulders above everyone else. The other side of the coin is that you could say that Harrison showed his talent because even though he wasn't targeted near the goal line as much he still tied the team lead at 7 TDs - meaning he made 4 of his TD catches outside the Red Zone and with his talent turned them into scores. Looking at the numbers, though, you can clearly see that Peyton didn't just walk into camp and immediately see Harrison as his go-to stud. Using my example above - do I think if he'd had Fitz in camp there is anyway he would have not clearly seen him as his go-to guy, right off the bat? I tend to think not. I think Fitz would have been clearly the #1 option for Peyton at WR. Just a guess, though.

Let's look at the year Harrison got injured - 2007. The year before in 2006 he was a Pro Bowler and first team All Pro. In 2006 he had 95/1366/12. A nice elite line, I'd say. So, when he got injured in 2007 what did the guy's line look like who stepped in to "replace" Harrison? It's our man - the topic of this post - Reggie Wayne. Wayne had a fantastic year with 104/1510/10. Wow. Elite numbers again. And that was with Harrison playing in 5 games, although one of those 5 was not a full game (he got injured against Denver). Even though, Wayne had "Harrison-like" numbers. Doesn't look too good for Harrison, right? I mean, what are the chances that the Colts just happen to have another true-life "elite" WR that comes in and improves on Harrison's numbers from the year before? And Harrison was coming off one of the best seasons of the career with a Pro Bowl and first team All Pro performance. Did the Colts really have 2 Fitz-like WRs on the team? Or is it that Peyton makes whomever he deems as "his guy" into that elite receiver? Well, what did Wayne do the year before Marvin got hurt? Wayne posted 86/1310/9. In reality he jump to 104/1510/10 wasn't really unexpected. With WR2 numbers like that it again makes it look like that any WR with "good" potential was going to post elite numbers.

I think these years are great examples to look at since all three - Peyton, Harrison and Wayne - were all playing at a high level. I went into this post as undecided and just kind of typed as I went through the stats. Before starting, without looking at any stats, I was of the mindset that Harrison was probably an elite WR while Wayne was "good" but not elite. After going through the numbers I'm not so sure.

I'm a firm believer now that Peyton makes the receiver. I think Harrison was a great receiver. I think Wayne is great as well (not quite Harrison's level). I don't think either is "elite" without Peyton Manning. To go back to our "baseline" elite WR - do I think Harrison or Wayne, in their prime, is able to put up 90/1137/6 like Fitz did last year on that same team? No. An emphatic NO. And this is not all stats talking. I got to watch Harrison his entire career. Did I see all his games? No. But I did see a lot. And near the end when media started to become more available I watched more and more. I never remember thinking of him as elite. I always thought he was darn good, though.

So, that's my opinion based on what I watched and with a little bit of numbers to back it up. Anyone who loves stats, as I do, knows that numbers can be turned and twisted to suit one's point of view, though. I tried my best not to do that and come to a conclusion based upon the numbers I saw. Of course I'm sure I missed things as there are literally thousands of stats for each player out there. This was just my best shot.

 

[chidoy]

............................I'm a firm believer now that Peyton makes the receiver. I think Harrison was a great receiver. I think Wayne is great as well (not quite Harrison's level). I don't think either is "elite" without Peyton Manning. To go back to our "baseline" elite WR - do I think Harrison or Wayne, in their prime, is able to put up 90/1137/6 like Fitz did last year on that same team? No. An emphatic NO. And this is not all stats talking. I got to watch Harrison his entire career. Did I see all his games? No. But I did see a lot. And near the end when media started to become more available I watched more and more. I never remember thinking of him as elite. I always thought he was darn good, though.So, that's my opinion based on what I watched and with a little bit of numbers to back it up. Anyone who loves stats, as I do, knows that numbers can be turned and twisted to suit one's point of view, though. I tried my best not to do that and come to a conclusion based upon the numbers I saw. Of course I'm sure I missed things as there are literally thousands of stats for each player out there. This was just my best shot.

Great post.... said exactly what i was TRYING to say....

 

[This could be the year]

Do QB's make WR's or do WR's make QB's ?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I agree with OP that Wayne is not an "elite" WR.... nor was Marvin...

They were both first round picks. Very few of the "all time great" WRs were able to achieve that greatness with inferior QB play. Both Harrison and Wayne are physically gifted athletes and master route runners. Would they have achieved the levels they did without Manning? Most likely not, but both would have been very successful as long as they had above average QB play.As far as the OP, this season isn't really a fair way to judge Wayne. He's already past his prime and while Collins is an adequate QB he's likely to be woefully unprepared right now. I still think Wayne will be productive and be near the top of the reception leaders list when all is said and done this season, but it's unlikely he'll dominate.

 

[Shutout]

Fitz...never mind

Not a bad point. Fitz looked average last year with crap at QB, though it wasn't his fault necessarily.Bottom line is that it takes SOME SORT OF TALENT at QB for a receiver to succeed.

But is Wayne a perennial top ten receiver with Matt Cassell as his QB?

I don't know. Interesting question.

Fitz didn't look average last year. As someone who watched every catch he made (and wasn't able to make) he grabbed almost everything humanly possible. He still finished well (with maybe the worst QB/Stud WR situation I can remember).I'm thinking MOP mentioned Fitz as in you forgot to mention him - since he probably had the worst QB situation last year and still produced fairly well.

At least I hope that's what he meant.

*Edit* Just went and double checked - He finished 4th in receptions and 8th in yards with a sack of chips throwing him the ball all year.

Actually, I think MOP mentioned him because MOP had that thread last year saying to avoid Fitz, citing a primary reason being due to the QB. However, as we know, Fitz was fine.To the original post: Man, do you also go down to the local nursing home and shake the milk money out of the old ladies? Its kind of unfair to say this will be a proving year for Wayne given that the team has other problems (trying to deal with the distractions of losing their franchise player) and that Wayne is 32 now. In reality, the only proof that really matters is that Wyane has been a top 10 WR every year for, what, 8 straight years? He has been an absolute rock in FF, posting top 5 and top 10 numbers routinely. What exactly do you want the man to prove? At this point of his career and the team issues, its a bit too much. It would be akin to watching Jerry Rice in his golden years in Oakland and saying "See, it was all Montana and Young"; ..I don't think you're proving anything.

To the Fitz issue last year: Its unlikely Wayne will put up 90/1137/6 like Fitz did, but what would be a good comparable? Fitz had nothing out there: no RBs, no line, no QB, no other good WRs and certainly no TE to compete with so there was literarly nothing to do EXCEPT throw to Fitz. Don't get me wrong: LOVE FITZ. Defended him endlessly last year when people were bumping him down. Definitely DO think that those numbers last year he put up despite all that was going on DOES prove he is elite. I'm just asking, given Wayne has more competent teammates; what would be a good number for him to achieve to belong in this conversation? if he gets, say, 75/1100/9, is that a good comparable? I would think absolutely so.

 

[by_tor]

you know who's an elite WR? Steve Smith.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Dunno how fair it is to judge Wayne on a single season that comes, in all likelihood, after the true prime of his career. In any event it will probably take a fair amount of time for he or anyone else to get rolling with Collins, who basically just got there, even if there is potential to click.

^This.

 

[pocketducks]

Marvin was without question elite. There's a lot more to playing WR than juking defenders or breaking tackles. In fact, I'd say the WR's two most important jobs are getting open and catching the ball... and you'll be hard-pressed to find 5 WRs over the past 20 years who were better at those two tasks. Who cares if he ducked out of bounds as soon as he heard footsteps? It's like old Cris Carter line about how all he did was catch TDs- all Marvin Harrison did was get open and catch footballs.

.....So, that's my opinion based on what I watched and with a little bit of numbers to back it up. Anyone who loves stats, as I do, knows that numbers can be turned and twisted to suit one's point of view, though. I tried my best not to do that and come to a conclusion based upon the numbers I saw. Of course I'm sure I missed things as there are literally thousands of stats for each player out there. This was just my best shot.

Great post. And a take home point is that Fitzgerald is amazing. It's hard for anyone to take off when you have a black hole of a QB throwing you the ball. And it is very likely that Fitz is a better player than Wayne. But to counter a little bit Harrison's numbers his third year might have been greatly affected by Peyton's play as well. Peyton has stated in the past that his rookie year was a great learning experience but the game "didn't slow down" for him until late that year. (Wish I could find article now). What does that mean? Means that he was not necessarily giving time or trusting in his WRs to get open. This lead to a lot of check down passes. By the way, I think that Faulk guy was a pretty good as well and some would say elite player (well at least the Football HOF). Can there be two elite WR on a team at the same time? Could be possible, one that comes to mind is Andre Reed and James Lofton. Though we know Lofton could play well without Jim Kelly. I guess a better measure of the "Manning effect" is what happened to Colts WRs who left and went on to play somewhere else. Similar to the WRs Elway and Marino had who left their respective teams and did not play well afterwards. Are there any such examples with the Colts? That said, I think you can put some stock in Wayne's year to determine if he elite. He made Painter look good in a preseason game not too long ago. What numbers does he have to put up this year to prove that he is elite? Is 80/1000/9 good enough with Collins? Or does he have to go 110/1200/12?Just more food for thought.

 

[The_Wolfman]

I think this is the year Reggie Wayne get exposed for what he truly is...an above average talent who played in a great offense with a HOF QB in his prime.

Not to take anything away from Wayne, he probably could have done well in many other situations. But in this case not only did Manning make Wayne, he made the entire Colts O. I'm predicting a long year ahead for Colts fans.

 

[chitlins3]

Marvin was without question elite. There's a lot more to playing WR than juking defenders or breaking tackles. In fact, I'd say the WR's two most important jobs are getting open and catching the ball... and you'll be hard-pressed to find 5 WRs over the past 20 years who were better at those two tasks. Who cares if he ducked out of bounds as soon as he heard footsteps? It's like old Cris Carter line about how all he did was catch TDs- all Marvin Harrison did was get open and catch footballs.

.....So, that's my opinion based on what I watched and with a little bit of numbers to back it up. Anyone who loves stats, as I do, knows that numbers can be turned and twisted to suit one's point of view, though. I tried my best not to do that and come to a conclusion based upon the numbers I saw. Of course I'm sure I missed things as there are literally thousands of stats for each player out there. This was just my best shot.

Great post. And a take home point is that Fitzgerald is amazing. It's hard for anyone to take off when you have a black hole of a QB throwing you the ball. And it is very likely that Fitz is a better player than Wayne. But to counter a little bit Harrison's numbers his third year might have been greatly affected by Peyton's play as well. Peyton has stated in the past that his rookie year was a great learning experience but the game "didn't slow down" for him until late that year. (Wish I could find article now). What does that mean? Means that he was not necessarily giving time or trusting in his WRs to get open. This lead to a lot of check down passes. By the way, I think that Faulk guy was a pretty good as well and some would say elite player (well at least the Football HOF).

Not that it really matters but Harrison broke his collarbone in the 1st quarter of week 12 of 1998 and missed the rest of the year. Pro rated his numbers would have been around 80/1000/10 had he played the whole year.

 

[Hoss Style]

Marvin was without question elite. There's a lot more to playing WR than juking defenders or breaking tackles. In fact, I'd say the WR's two most important jobs are getting open and catching the ball... and you'll be hard-pressed to find 5 WRs over the past 20 years who were better at those two tasks. Who cares if he ducked out of bounds as soon as he heard footsteps? It's like old Cris Carter line about how all he did was catch TDs- all Marvin Harrison did was get open and catch footballs.

.....So, that's my opinion based on what I watched and with a little bit of numbers to back it up. Anyone who loves stats, as I do, knows that numbers can be turned and twisted to suit one's point of view, though. I tried my best not to do that and come to a conclusion based upon the numbers I saw. Of course I'm sure I missed things as there are literally thousands of stats for each player out there. This was just my best shot.

Great post. And a take home point is that Fitzgerald is amazing. It's hard for anyone to take off when you have a black hole of a QB throwing you the ball. And it is very likely that Fitz is a better player than Wayne. But to counter a little bit Harrison's numbers his third year might have been greatly affected by Peyton's play as well. Peyton has stated in the past that his rookie year was a great learning experience but the game "didn't slow down" for him until late that year. (Wish I could find article now). What does that mean? Means that he was not necessarily giving time or trusting in his WRs to get open. This lead to a lot of check down passes. By the way, I think that Faulk guy was a pretty good as well and some would say elite player (well at least the Football HOF).

Not that it really matters but Harrison broke his collarbone in the 1st quarter of week 12 of 1998 and missed the rest of the year. Pro rated his numbers would have been around 80/1000/10 had he played the whole year.

Excellent point - and one that I missed.So, that being said it really shows what a difference Peyton made in Marvin's play. His 3rd year increased to 80/1000/10 (pro-rated) with a rookie Manning from 73/866/6 the year before. Manning's second year (and Harrison's fourth) he catapulted to 115/1663/12. Let's take into account what another poster says above that Manning's game was off his first year and the game wasn't slowing down for him until late in the year - sounds reasonable and would explain the massive jump in Harrison's numbers in Peyton's second year. When Peyton got his bearings so did Marvin.I'm open to either interpretation of the numbers but to me, still, everything points to Peyton taking a "great" receiver and making him "elite". I does seem, though, that Harrison was at the high end of "great" and was taken to incredible heights with Peyton orchestrating the show. I still don't see this, coupled with the stats in my earlier post, showing that Harrison was elite without Manning, though. As in he could post top numbers regardless of QB talent like Fitz did last year.

 

[Saint]

The interesting thing with these posts are that we are comparing the Fitzgerald's of today in their prime with Marvin Harrison in his prime or Reggie Wayne in relation to the QB. I respect all the opinions here, but let me throw one thing out. You can't compare them. How much have the rules changed in regards to Wide Receivers and Defensive coverages? How many penalties are their now that weren't there a decade ago? I am going to hijack this thread because of the references to Harrison not being elite and I feel I need to give a different perspective.

Harrison entered the league in 1996, here are the rule changes (affecting WR) over that period of time:

[*]1996: The five-yard contact rule will be enforced more stringently.

[*]1996: Hits with the helmet or to the head by the defender will be flagged as personal fouls and subject to fines. This is being done to protect the offense, particularly the quarterback.

[*] 1997: When a team fakes a punt and throws the ball downfield, pass interference calls on the two outside defenders who are actually trying to block a coverage man from getting downfield and might not even know the ball has been thrown have been eliminated.

[*]2001: Protecting the passer will be emphasized even more.

[*]2002: A player who touches a pylon remains in-bounds until any part of his body touches the ground out-of-bounds;

[*]2002: It is illegal to hit a quarterback helmet-to-helmet anytime after a change of possession;

[*]2004: Re-emphasis of the "pass interference" penalty calls.

[*]2005: Prohibited grabbing the inside collar of the shoulder pads to tackle a runner ("horse-collar tackle").

[*]2005: Broadened the definition of unnecessary roughness to apply to unnecessarily running, diving into, or throwing the body against a player who should not have reasonably anticipated such contact by an opponent. Previously, rule only protected a player who is out of the play.

[*]2006: Expanded roughing the passer rule by prohibiting low hits on the quarterback when a rushing defender had an opportunity to avoid such contact.

[*]2006: Expanded definition of a "horse collar tackle" to include grabbing the inside collar of the jersey.

[*]2007: Made a block below the waist against an eligible receiver while the quarterback is in the pocket a 15-yard penalty instead of a 5-yard penalty (illegal cut).

[*]2009: It is an illegal hit on a defenseless receiver if the initial force of the contact by the defender's helmet, forearm, or shoulder is to the head or neck area of the receiver. This will result in a 15-yard penalty for unnecessary roughness.

[*]2009: Clarified rule regarding low hits on passers: (a) A defender cannot initiate a roll or lunge and forcibly hit the passer in the knee area or below, even if he is being contacted by another player. (b) It is not a foul if the defender swipes, wraps, or grabs a passer in the knee area or below in an attempt to tackle him.

[*]2010: Unnecessary roughness rules providing protection for defenseless players were standardized and expanded, specifically protecting the player who has just completed a catch from blows to the head or neck by an opponent who launches. Protection for kickers and punters during the kick and return were also expanded, as was protection for quarterbacks after changes of possession.

To illustrate some of the points, the league-wide passer-rating jumped from 78.3 in 2003 to a record 82.8 in 2004. Furthermore, in relation to the entire league, here's how Harrison ranked starting in his third season:

[*]1999: 2nd in receptions at 115, 1st in yards, 7th in receiving TDs, 1st in receiving yds per game (Peyton ranked 4th in passer rating)

[*]2000: 1st in receptions, 6th in yards, 2nd in receiving TDs, 7th in long receptions, 6th in receiving yds per game (Peyton ranked 6th in passer rating)

[*]2001: 3rd in receptions, 2nd in yards, 2nd in TDs, 2nd in yds per game (Peyton ranked 8th in regards to passer rating)

[*]2002: 1st in receptions, 1st in yards, 3rd in TDs, 1st in yds per game (Peyton ranked 5th)

[*]2003: 7th in receptions, 6th in yds, 4th in TDs, 8th in long receptions, 4th in yds per game (Peyton ranked 2nd and Marvin missed 1 game)

[*]2004: 2nd in TDs (Peyton ranked 1st. Note: Reggie Wayne is now in Top 10 listings, his 4th season)

[*]2005: 10th in yards, 1st in TDs, 6th in long receptions, 8th in yds per game (Peyton ranked 1st, Wayne not in Top 10, and Marvin missed 1 game)

[*]2006: 3rd in receptions, 2nd in yds, 2nd in TDs, 2nd in yds per game (Peyton ranked 1st and Wayne in Top 10 below Harrison)

The guy dominated the league for 7 years. Now for the folks saying Fitz is just way better. Here's his stats:

[*]2004: Not ranked (QB not ranked)

[*]2005: 1st in receptions, 4th in yards, 5th in TDs, 6th in yds per game (QB not ranked, although Boldin is also in all the Top 10)

[*]2006: Not ranked (QB not ranked)

[*]2007: 6th in receptions, 4th in yds, 9th in TDs, 3rd in yds per game (QB ranked 10th)

[*]2008: 4th in receptions, 2nd in yds, 1st in TDs, 3rd in yds per game (QB ranked 2nd, and Boldin in Top 10 rankings)

[*]2009: 7th in receptions, 1st in TDs (QB ranked 10th)

[*]2010: 5th in receptions, 8th in yds (QB not ranked)

Bottom-line, Fitz ranked in the top rankings with a weaker QB than Manning. However, he also benefited from more offense-happy NFL rules. Meanwhile Marvin was a dominate force when Peyton was still improving and the league rules were not as safety focused. To say Marvin Harrison was not an elite receiver makes me think you guys were not watching football in the late 90s and early 2000 era. The guy is a hall of famer and ranks right up their with Rice (although Rice is still the best in my book). To say that he isn't any good because he had a good QB is ridiculous. That's like saying Jerry Rice wasn't an elite WR either.

Sorry for the long post, but I feel we had to set the record straight here.

References from many sites: #1 site for stats: DD's site: http://www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[farroki]

Marvin/Wayne both run good routes. Manning has impeccable timing and accuracy and can execute the plays blindfolded.

No manning = big drop off in success for Wayne. Collins just doesn't have it... at all.. He barely ever did.

 

[SSOG]

I'm open to either interpretation of the numbers but to me, still, everything points to Peyton taking a "great" receiver and making him "elite".

No offense meant by this, because I'm a stat guy as well... but this is your problem right here. You're trying to judge Harrison's talent by looking at 1s and 0s on a computer screen. That is, quite frankly, a pretty damn crappy way to do it. You're taking HoF-caliber numbers and trying to generate a wholly unsupported counterfactual to determine if they represent a HoF-caliber talent.For me, I don't need to massage the numbers and try to figure out what Harrison's stats would have been if he'd played without Peyton Manning, or if he'd played in the '60s, or if he'd played on the moon, or if football had never been invented and he'd played a sport called "Bonkyball" that played like a cross between ping pong and boxing. The best way to determine whether Harrison was elite was to simply watch him play. The fact that Peyton Manning was under center does not explain how Marvin Harrison so consistently managed to get separation from every DB in the league. The fact that Peyton Manning was under center does not explain how Marvin Harrison managed to so consistently catch every catchable ball in his vicinity. I watched Marvin Harrison play, and I was blown at his ability to (a) get open and (b) catch the football- two talents that are independent of who is taking snaps, and which are pretty much the total job description of the WR position.All Marvin Harrison did was get open and catch the football. Regardless of what counterfactuals you manage to invent (based on absurdities such as projecting based on his pre-breakout production), he was an elite wide receiver. Not a great receiver who put up elite numbers- an actual, honest-to-goodness elite receiver.

 

[Hoss Style]

The interesting thing with these posts are that we are comparing the Fitzgerald's of today in their prime with Marvin Harrison in his prime or Reggie Wayne in relation to the QB. I respect all the opinions here, but let me throw one thing out. You can't compare them.

With all due respect - you can compare them. There are rule changes, yes. These players are in the same era, though. It's not like we are comparing Lance to Reggie and there is an almost 30 year difference. These are two players that I got to see play at pretty much the same time. But you missed the point of my post - namely the part where I said that I'm only using Fitz as an example to show what I call "elite". And then I explained that we shouldn't get into a discussion on whether we think Fitz is elite or not - I'm just letting you know that he is one of the receivers that fits my description of the word. Since he was my baseline, throughout the thread I only made comparisons after looking at the numbers for Harrison/Wayne in different situations - as in what, in my opinion, would Fitz have done in a similar situations and vice versa - but the numbers always came first as the main point. The Fitz stuff was just an opinion thrown in after the fact, just a guess having watched both for so many years.

How much have the rules changed in regards to Wide Receivers and Defensive coverages? How many penalties are their now that weren't there a decade ago? I am going to hijack this thread because of the references to Harrison not being elite and I feel I need to give a different perspective.

I fully understand your need for a different perspective. In fact, it's welcomed. But remember - I went into those numbers above thinking Harrison was elite. Only after running through them did I start to change my mind. That being said, my focus was on Harrison with Peyton; basically '98 and beyond. So what rules changes in your list occured after '98 but before '04, meaning that they only affected Harrison and not Fitz, whom I used as my baseline "example". Here they are:
[*]2001: Protecting the passer will be emphasized even more.

[*]2002: A player who touches a pylon remains in-bounds until any part of his body touches the ground out-of-bounds;

[*]2002: It is illegal to hit a quarterback helmet-to-helmet anytime after a change of possession;

Harrison played from 1998 to 2008 with Peyton. Fitz came into the league in 2004. Those three rules above are the only ones in your list that changed in the time after Peyton/Harrison started to the time Fitz came into the league. I honestly don't think that just those three make enough of a difference to change my mind.

To illustrate some of the points, the league-wide passer-rating jumped from 78.3 in 2003 to a record 82.8 in 2004.

This was a good point, and interested me, so I went and looked at the numbers. Now, using the same link that you provided, http://www.pro-footb...NFL/passing.htm (I love that site as well) I show different numbers. I do show a significant jump in rating from '03 to '04, but with slightly different numbers. I'm showing it went from 76.6 to 80.9. Still a similar jump percentage wise. But an even more accurate number would be: what were the average passer ratings when Harrison played and when Fitz played and would there be enough difference to nullify me using Fitz as a baseline? Let's look:Average QB Rating while Harrison/Peyton played: 78.12

Average QB Rating while Fitz has played: 80.46

So the league as a whole did increase a bit. I don't think it's enough to void me using Fitz as my baseline, though. This got me to thinking - did Peyton follow this league-wide increase in passer rating? Let's look at Peyton's rating in '98-'03 when he played with Harrison but before Fitz got here in '04:

[*]'98 - 71.2

[*]'99 - 90.7 (+19.5)

[*]'00 - 94.7 (+4)

[*]'01 - 84.1 (-10.6)

[*]'02 - 88.8 (+4.7)

[*]'03 - 99.0 (+10.2)

Now, throwing out Manning's rookie year as the outlier, we see that he bounced around but overall did increase as the years went on. Peyton's average was always higher then the league average, though, so I'm not sure it really factors as a way to show that you can't compare Harrison to any of today's WRs. I'm not sure the passer rating is really telling us anything major in the topic we're discussing. I could easily be swayed, though. I just don't see it at the moment, though, since Peyton has always had a high passer rating.

To say Marvin Harrison was not an elite receiver makes me think you guys were not watching football in the late 90s and early 2000 era. The guy is a hall of famer and ranks right up their with Rice (although Rice is still the best in my book). To say that he isn't any good because he had a good QB is ridiculous. That's like saying Jerry Rice wasn't an elite WR either.

Haha, I feel ya, man. Your defending your guy. I understand. I know Harrison's elite. I'm not one of the guy's saying he's not. Check out early in my first post. I say his numbers show he's elite. My question was just why was he elite and would he have been without Peyton. I tried to look at it objectively. I was in Marvin's corner when I started. The numbers moved me out. And it's no where near like saying Rice wasn't elite because of Montana. I think each QB/WR combo would have to be evaluated individually and honestly - I don't have the time for that. I was able to watch Rice his entire career though (yes, I'm old) and you could see he was amazing. The way he'd leave DBs in the dust with his tight route running, the ankles he'd break on his cuts and the way he could focus on the ball was just amazing. Not to mention that if you focused in one him you could never tell if it was a running play or not - his routes always looked like he was getting the ball.I think the one thing about the numbers that really started to change my mind was Harrison's numbers before he got injured, Wayne's numbers when he took Harrison's spot and how Wayne improved on those numbers - and Harrison had one of his best years the year before. Having watched both of them extensively I just can't convince myself that the Colt's just happened to have to elite WRs back to back. I was thinking about going and looking at all the WRs Peyton's ever had and their production under him but honestly I just don't know that it's needed (at this point). I think just looking at Wayne taking over for Harrison sheds a good bit of light on the subject. Do we really think that Wayne is elite as well? And on top of that better than Harrison? I think even the most dedicated Colt's fans wouldn't say that. Regardless, Wayne stepped in and bettered Marvin's numbers the year after his first team All Pro year (his only one, btw).

I still think the numbers make a great argument that Peyton gives non-elite receivers elite numbers.

I think I'm done with the numbers for this. I'm not sure I can "prove" anything more. It's a lot of opinion factored in with speculation and a few stats from a few years - hardly a science. The only other numbers that might be relevant are the stats for all of Peyton's WRs over the years and how they've increased/decreased when taking over WR1/WR2 positions and then the numbers of WRs that leave the team or come in from other teams. I'm just too pooped to go do all that, though.

Great discussion, though.

 

[Hoss Style]

I'm open to either interpretation of the numbers but to me, still, everything points to Peyton taking a "great" receiver and making him "elite".

No offense meant by this, because I'm a stat guy as well... but this is your problem right here. You're trying to judge Harrison's talent by looking at 1s and 0s on a computer screen. That is, quite frankly, a pretty damn crappy way to do it. You're taking HoF-caliber numbers and trying to generate a wholly unsupported counterfactual to determine if they represent a HoF-caliber talent.For me, I don't need to massage the numbers and try to figure out what Harrison's stats would have been if he'd played without Peyton Manning, or if he'd played in the '60s, or if he'd played on the moon, or if football had never been invented and he'd played a sport called "Bonkyball" that played like a cross between ping pong and boxing. The best way to determine whether Harrison was elite was to simply watch him play. The fact that Peyton Manning was under center does not explain how Marvin Harrison so consistently managed to get separation from every DB in the league. The fact that Peyton Manning was under center does not explain how Marvin Harrison managed to so consistently catch every catchable ball in his vicinity. I watched Marvin Harrison play, and I was blown at his ability to (a) get open and (b) catch the football- two talents that are independent of who is taking snaps, and which are pretty much the total job description of the WR position.

All Marvin Harrison did was get open and catch the football. Regardless of what counterfactuals you manage to invent (based on absurdities such as projecting based on his pre-breakout production), he was an elite wide receiver. Not a great receiver who put up elite numbers- an actual, honest-to-goodness elite receiver.

Not sure what to make of this. Your response to my post is that it's a "crappy" way to evaluate talent. You then go on to insinuate that I'm massaging numbers. I haven't been here too long but I've seen you post numbers in my short time, many times, to back up an opinion. None of my numbers were "massaged" nor did I claim to use these numbers to create a "wholly unsupported counterfactual" claim. In fact, if you read my post, you see where I say that numbers can be twisted and turned to support almost any claim (within reason).Numbers are a fun way to try to support a thought that cannot actually be proven. I thought Marvin was an elite WR going in. I looked at a lot of the numbers and changed my mind a bit. There are a lot of numbers showing that it might have been Manning - such as Wayne stepping in after Marvin's only All Pro year and improving on his numbers considerably. I don't think that's "unsupported" numbers or facts.

Regardless of what counterfactuals you manage to invent (based on absurdities such as projecting based on his pre-breakout production), he was an elite wide receiver.

is what you write. I'm so sorry to have disagreed with you. Really, I am. I thought you'd appreciate a post based on stats instead of someone just saying "He's elite because I watched him and what I say goes", yet you come back with almost that exact response.You summarize your response with just "watch him play". You know what? I did. As did many others here. And we watched Peyton as well. And there still lots of discussion as to whether Harrison would be elite with or without Manning. Whether you declare "he was an elite wide receiver" or not.

Do you always respond like this when someone might disagree with you? Good lord. Look at my post above. I clearly said numbers don't mean everything, this is my opinion, here are some interesting numbers to look at, I'm not sure about this, etc etc. Look at your response and what you attack me with: "crappy way to do it", "wholly unsupported counterfactuals", "massage the numbers", "counterfactuals I invent" (you like that word), "based on absurdities", etc. I feel like a parent explaining to his child why broccoli is good and he should eat it and he just sticks out his bottom lip and repeatedly says "No! No!"

No matter how knowledgeable you think you are about football I hate to break it to you - you may be wrong. So may I. So may all of us. Take away everything you deem in my post as "counterfactual" (ok, maybe it is kind of a cool word), "invented", "massaged" (I could go for one now), unsupported and most of all "crappy" (that one hurt ) - take out all those horrible, horrible errors I made and just look at one: Wayne's numbers after taking over for Marvin. That alone is at least a reason to question your almightly opinon. If we may, your honor.

What the heck is wrong with you? Did I just catch you on a bad day? Hell, even if I was totally wrong I'd still think you'd welcome another poster that at least attempted to put some research into a post insted of just stating an opinion with about 10 seconds of thought. I'll definately hesitate before putting in the time again to dig up numbers to support a claim.

I won't respond to this anymore. Bash away. But I will, definately, chuckle the next time I'm reading a post of yours, chock full of stats, and some hapless poster responds with "I don't care. He's the best and you're wrong". I'll then sip my coffee and move on.

To those that actually enjoyed a little insight into the Harrison/Wayne/Manning conundrum, thanks for your time and responses. Numbers are a fun way to explore things that can't really be solved, especially in football. But when the thread starts to break down into attacks that's the time when I leave. I can see that in everyday life. I'm gonna move along. Good chatting with most of you.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

The interesting thing with these posts are that we are comparing the Fitzgerald's of today in their prime with Marvin Harrison in his prime or Reggie Wayne in relation to the QB. I respect all the opinions here, but let me throw one thing out. You can't compare them. How much have the rules changed in regards to Wide Receivers and Defensive coverages? How many penalties are their now that weren't there a decade ago? I am going to hijack this thread because of the references to Harrison not being elite and I feel I need to give a different perspective.

Harrison entered the league in 1996, here are the rule changes (affecting WR) over that period of time:

[*]1996: The five-yard contact rule will be enforced more stringently.

[*]1996: Hits with the helmet or to the head by the defender will be flagged as personal fouls and subject to fines. This is being done to protect the offense, particularly the quarterback.

[*] 1997: When a team fakes a punt and throws the ball downfield, pass interference calls on the two outside defenders who are actually trying to block a coverage man from getting downfield and might not even know the ball has been thrown have been eliminated.

[*]2001: Protecting the passer will be emphasized even more.

[*]2002: A player who touches a pylon remains in-bounds until any part of his body touches the ground out-of-bounds;

[*]2002: It is illegal to hit a quarterback helmet-to-helmet anytime after a change of possession;

[*]2004: Re-emphasis of the "pass interference" penalty calls.

[*]2005: Prohibited grabbing the inside collar of the shoulder pads to tackle a runner ("horse-collar tackle").

[*]2005: Broadened the definition of unnecessary roughness to apply to unnecessarily running, diving into, or throwing the body against a player who should not have reasonably anticipated such contact by an opponent. Previously, rule only protected a player who is out of the play.

[*]2006: Expanded roughing the passer rule by prohibiting low hits on the quarterback when a rushing defender had an opportunity to avoid such contact.

[*]2006: Expanded definition of a "horse collar tackle" to include grabbing the inside collar of the jersey.

[*]2007: Made a block below the waist against an eligible receiver while the quarterback is in the pocket a 15-yard penalty instead of a 5-yard penalty (illegal cut).

[*]2009: It is an illegal hit on a defenseless receiver if the initial force of the contact by the defender's helmet, forearm, or shoulder is to the head or neck area of the receiver. This will result in a 15-yard penalty for unnecessary roughness.

[*]2009: Clarified rule regarding low hits on passers: (a) A defender cannot initiate a roll or lunge and forcibly hit the passer in the knee area or below, even if he is being contacted by another player. (b) It is not a foul if the defender swipes, wraps, or grabs a passer in the knee area or below in an attempt to tackle him.

[*]2010: Unnecessary roughness rules providing protection for defenseless players were standardized and expanded, specifically protecting the player who has just completed a catch from blows to the head or neck by an opponent who launches. Protection for kickers and punters during the kick and return were also expanded, as was protection for quarterbacks after changes of possession.

To illustrate some of the points, the league-wide passer-rating jumped from 78.3 in 2003 to a record 82.8 in 2004. Furthermore, in relation to the entire league, here's how Harrison ranked starting in his third season:

[*]1999: 2nd in receptions at 115, 1st in yards, 7th in receiving TDs, 1st in receiving yds per game (Peyton ranked 4th in passer rating)

[*]2000: 1st in receptions, 6th in yards, 2nd in receiving TDs, 7th in long receptions, 6th in receiving yds per game (Peyton ranked 6th in passer rating)

[*]2001: 3rd in receptions, 2nd in yards, 2nd in TDs, 2nd in yds per game (Peyton ranked 8th in regards to passer rating)

[*]2002: 1st in receptions, 1st in yards, 3rd in TDs, 1st in yds per game (Peyton ranked 5th)

[*]2003: 7th in receptions, 6th in yds, 4th in TDs, 8th in long receptions, 4th in yds per game (Peyton ranked 2nd and Marvin missed 1 game)

[*]2004: 2nd in TDs (Peyton ranked 1st. Note: Reggie Wayne is now in Top 10 listings, his 4th season)

[*]2005: 10th in yards, 1st in TDs, 6th in long receptions, 8th in yds per game (Peyton ranked 1st, Wayne not in Top 10, and Marvin missed 1 game)

[*]2006: 3rd in receptions, 2nd in yds, 2nd in TDs, 2nd in yds per game (Peyton ranked 1st and Wayne in Top 10 below Harrison)

The guy dominated the league for 7 years. Now for the folks saying Fitz is just way better. Here's his stats:

[*]2004: Not ranked (QB not ranked)

[*]2005: 1st in receptions, 4th in yards, 5th in TDs, 6th in yds per game (QB not ranked, although Boldin is also in all the Top 10)

[*]2006: Not ranked (QB not ranked)

[*]2007: 6th in receptions, 4th in yds, 9th in TDs, 3rd in yds per game (QB ranked 10th)

[*]2008: 4th in receptions, 2nd in yds, 1st in TDs, 3rd in yds per game (QB ranked 2nd, and Boldin in Top 10 rankings)

[*]2009: 7th in receptions, 1st in TDs (QB ranked 10th)

[*]2010: 5th in receptions, 8th in yds (QB not ranked)

Bottom-line, Fitz ranked in the top rankings with a weaker QB than Manning. However, he also benefited from more offense-happy NFL rules. Meanwhile Marvin was a dominate force when Peyton was still improving and the league rules were not as safety focused. To say Marvin Harrison was not an elite receiver makes me think you guys were not watching football in the late 90s and early 2000 era. The guy is a hall of famer and ranks right up their with Rice (although Rice is still the best in my book). To say that he isn't any good because he had a good QB is ridiculous. That's like saying Jerry Rice wasn't an elite WR either.

Sorry for the long post, but I feel we had to set the record straight here.

References from many sites: #1 site for stats: DD's site: http://www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

I'm open to either interpretation of the numbers but to me, still, everything points to Peyton taking a "great" receiver and making him "elite".

No offense meant by this, because I'm a stat guy as well... but this is your problem right here. You're trying to judge Harrison's talent by looking at 1s and 0s on a computer screen. That is, quite frankly, a pretty damn crappy way to do it. You're taking HoF-caliber numbers and trying to generate a wholly unsupported counterfactual to determine if they represent a HoF-caliber talent.For me, I don't need to massage the numbers and try to figure out what Harrison's stats would have been if he'd played without Peyton Manning, or if he'd played in the '60s, or if he'd played on the moon, or if football had never been invented and he'd played a sport called "Bonkyball" that played like a cross between ping pong and boxing. The best way to determine whether Harrison was elite was to simply watch him play. The fact that Peyton Manning was under center does not explain how Marvin Harrison so consistently managed to get separation from every DB in the league. The fact that Peyton Manning was under center does not explain how Marvin Harrison managed to so consistently catch every catchable ball in his vicinity. I watched Marvin Harrison play, and I was blown at his ability to (a) get open and (b) catch the football- two talents that are independent of who is taking snaps, and which are pretty much the total job description of the WR position.All Marvin Harrison did was get open and catch the football. Regardless of what counterfactuals you manage to invent (based on absurdities such as projecting based on his pre-breakout production), he was an elite wide receiver. Not a great receiver who put up elite numbers- an actual, honest-to-goodness elite receiver.

Not a huge fan of Harrison (obviously), but I had great respect for him as an elite player which he most definitely was. Of course he benefitted from a qb and a system centered on throwing the ball (in a dome no less). Kind of a futile exercise, would Rice have been elite in a Montana less more run oriented offense? Systems & players compliment each other. No doubt Manning made Harrison better, but surely Harrison also made Manning better (imho).

 

[Saint]

With all due respect - you can compare them. There are rule changes, yes. These players are in the same era, though. It's not like we are comparing Lance to Reggie and there is an almost 30 year difference. These are two players that I got to see play at pretty much the same time. But you missed the point of my post - namely the part where I said that I'm only using Fitz as an example to show what I call "elite".

Hoss I definitely respect your opinion and I do find this discussion interesting. My concern with throwing FItz out there, even as an example, is that the rule changes and offensive play calling strategy that took place prior to bringing Fitz into the league creates a difference where it could be comparing apples to oranges. I would almost argue that a better comparison on eliteness is Marving Harrison against other receivers in the same time period of WR greatness. Namely years 3-6, which would have been 1999-2002. This would introduce guys like Kurt Warner at STL, who bested Manning in 1999 by a fair margin (by QB rating), yet none of Warner's receivers bested Marvin. Again, my main focus is that by using Fitz as an example, we have other factors at play that make the example faulty. To truly discuss elite, I would argue that you compare the QB-WR relationship at the same period... this would be Beurlein-Muhammad, Warner - Bruce/Holt, Garcia - Owens era, and Griese-Smith era. I think this is more apt of a comparison. The interesting points, is that even when the QBs of those receivers exceeded Manning's numbers, Harrison still dominated the stats.

I fully understand your need for a different perspective. In fact, it's welcomed. But remember - I went into those numbers above thinking Harrison was elite. Only after running through them did I start to change my mind. That being said, my focus was on Harrison with Peyton; basically '98 and beyond. So what rules changes in your list occured after '98 but before '04, meaning that they only affected Harrison and not Fitz, whom I used as my baseline "example". Here they are:

[*]2001: Protecting the passer will be emphasized even more.

[*]2002: A player who touches a pylon remains in-bounds until any part of his body touches the ground out-of-bounds;

[*]2002: It is illegal to hit a quarterback helmet-to-helmet anytime after a change of possession;

Harrison played from 1998 to 2008 with Peyton. Fitz came into the league in 2004. Those three rules above are the only ones in your list that changed in the time after Peyton/Harrison started to the time Fitz came into the league. I honestly don't think that just those three make enough of a difference to change my mind.

I think you forgot the big one in the pass interference penalty changes in 2004. This is where PI starting getting called a bit more and made QBs and WRs more effective. It could probably be argued that all 2004 numbers and forward are inflated.

To illustrate some of the points, the league-wide passer-rating jumped from 78.3 in 2003 to a record 82.8 in 2004.

This was a good point, and interested me, so I went and looked at the numbers. Now, using the same link that you provided, http://www.pro-footb...NFL/passing.htm (I love that site as well) I show different numbers. I do show a significant jump in rating from '03 to '04, but with slightly different numbers. I'm showing it went from 76.6 to 80.9.

Keep in mind, I was looking at "league-wide", not Manning but the NFL as a whole. As a whole the average passer rating improved. The 2003 Arizona QB was Jeff Blake (QB rating of 69.6) and Josh McCown (QB rating of 70.3). In 2004, the Arizona QB was McCown and his QB rating was (74.1). Again, the main point is showing that on average all of the QBs went up 4 pts namely due to the changes in PI penalty calls. That's fairly substantial. The league wide stat came from this link: Cold Hard Facts

Peyton's average was always higher then the league average, though, so I'm not sure it really factors as a way to show that you can't compare Harrison to any of today's WRs. I'm not sure the passer rating is really telling us anything major in the topic we're discussing. I could easily be swayed, though. I just don't see it at the moment, though, since Peyton has always had a high passer rating.

Great analysis there Hoss and I do think that there is something there. I was trying to find a way to rank QB effectiveness and while I know the QB rating has its own issues, it seemed to be the only definitive stat that could be ranked as to the effectiveness of the QB increasing the effectiveness of the receiver. In my opinion, the more apt way to compare is other QB-WR tandems at the same era. I have fundamental difficulties in comparing receivers entering in the league in 2004 vs those that entered in the league in 1996. I think another way to look at this is in regards to offense. Has the offensive play calling of the late 90s changed to the offensive play calling in the late 2000 era? I would say absolutely. Remember the days of the stud RBs? They are going away. The game the other night had 700+ yds in the air. That was unheard of back in the late 90s. More the exception than the rule.So with using Fitz as an example, now we have a couple of other potential problems with using that example: rule changes and offensive play calling.

I know Harrison's elite. I'm not one of the guy's saying he's not. Check out early in my first post. I say his numbers show he's elite. My question was just why was he elite and would he have been without Peyton. I tried to look at it objectively. I was in Marvin's corner when I started. The numbers moved me out. And it's no where near like saying Rice wasn't elite because of Montana. I think each QB/WR combo would have to be evaluated individually and honestly - I don't have the time for that.

I think the numbers support that Marvin was elite in his era. While SSOG's statement was more conjecture in some areas, one thing Marvin did extremely well was run routes and get open. He created separation in the game. Because of his abilities, he put himself in places where Manning could hit him. The guy was phenomenal. This is the reason a true comparison is looking at era as well as each QB/WR combo. Unfortunately, I'm with you on time, but maybe this will become a future FBG article on evaluating talent over history. It really is a great discussion.

I think the one thing about the numbers that really started to change my mind was Harrison's numbers before he got injured, Wayne's numbers when he took Harrison's spot and how Wayne improved on those numbers - and Harrison had one of his best years the year before. Having watched both of them extensively I just can't convince myself that the Colt's just happened to have to elite WRs back to back.

I felt exactly opposite. Wayne entered the league in 2001, but didn't start 16 games until 2003. Yes he eclipsed numbers of Harrison, but I could argue he also had the benefit of rule changes and play calling more than Harrison did. Harrison in my mind, is a more elite receiver than Wayne hands down. To clear the air, I am by no means a Colts fan as I'm an Eagles fan through and through. But I can definitely tell you I had Colts WR envy when my birds had Na Brown, Pinkston, etc. Pathetic.

I was thinking about going and looking at all the WRs Peyton's ever had and their production under him but honestly I just don't know that it's needed (at this point).

Thanks. You got me thinking on this... Here's some comparison data (as my wife is out for groceries with the kids and I got the time)
[*]1999: Harrison 115 receptions, Terence Wilkins 42 receptions, Ken Dilger 40 receptions, Marcus Pollard 34 receptions

[*]2000: Harrison 102 receptions, Jerome Pathon 50 receptions, Ken Dilger 47 receptions, Terrence Wilkins 43 receptions

[*]2001: Harrison 109 receptions, Marcus Pollard 47 receptions, Terence Wilkins 34 receptions, Ken Dilger 32 receptions

[*]2002: Harrison 143 receptions , Reggie Wayne 49 receptions, Qadry Ismail 44 receptions, Marcus Pollard 43 receptions

[*]2003: Harrison 94 receptions, Reggie Wayne 68 receptions, Marcus Pollard 40 receptions, Troy Walters 36 receptions

[*]2004: Harrison 86 receptions, Reggie Wayne 77 receptions, Brandon Stokely 68 receptions, Marcus Pollard 29 receptions

What stands out for me is Harrison's stats in relation to the other receivers. He clearly distinguished himself. Even Manning couldn't do anything with Wilkins and Dilger. Harrison's numbers dropped when Wayne started coming into his own in 03-04, but the interesting aspect is did Wayne's numbers truly set himself apart from the other receivers the way Harrison does. To be honest, don't know. Didn't look at it, although I might a little bit later. If anything, this way of looking at it is again (in my mind) confirming why Harrison was elite.

Hoss, great thread and great discussion. This could be a topic all its own on QB-WR pairings and consideration of the elite WRs were only elite because of the QB. In my mind, I think it's a little bit of both, but I do believe that Harrison had a gift and while his numbers may not have been as high with a different QB, I think they still would have been elite numbers.

But all-in-all, he was fantastic to watch:

.

 

[Hoss Style]

Hoss, great thread and great discussion. This could be a topic all its own on QB-WR pairings and consideration of the elite WRs were only elite because of the QB. In my mind, I think it's a little bit of both, but I do believe that Harrison had a gift and while his numbers may not have been as high with a different QB, I think they still would have been elite numbers.

I really appreciate the discussion. I'd kind of soured on the thread altogether with the assinine response I got from that other guy earlier but you pulled me back in!

Well, like I said earlier, I'm open to the fact that I may be wrong and could be swayed. You've presented some great points here. Remember I came into this thinking Harrison was elite and am still teetering on the fence.

As to comparing the two - I really can't stress enough that I'm not comparing Fitz, or any WR today, stat for stats with Harrison. My "comparison", if you can call it that, is just me trying to put Harrison in Fitz's situation today, with today's rules obviously, and trying to see him make the plays that Fitz does. It's so hard to do though, which is why I tried to stay away from it for the most part.

I'm with you on QB rating, as well. Such a flawed system in many ways. It reminds me of IQ tests in a way. I had access years back to people's IQ tests and used to laugh at how "off" they were at points. I'd actually speak to the person and see them perform and realize that the numbers didn't really match. People like to assign numbers, though, and although I love numbers too, I hate when they are assigned as rankings.

Later you say that you feel the exact opposite of me in that Wayne actually was an elite WR stuck behind Harrison for those years. You might be right. I just don't know that the rule changes that happened really could propel Wayne to those heights as opposed to Manning actually making him seem that good. But if Wayne also was an elite talent, as you say - which by all means could be true - then it totally throws a wrench in the cogs of the "Peyton made the WR" process.

Anyway, thanks for the discourse. I watched the Harrison highlights at the end and it's always fun to watch greatness - no matter who's making it happen.If I'm ever commisioned to run a study on famous QB/WR combos and how the QB affected the WR in those combos then I'll drop what I'm doing and contact you immediately and we'll hop to work! Not holding my breath to receive that call!

I think I'm all stat-ed out on this one, I think. If you feel the urge to continue, though, by all means do so. I enjoy your posts.

*Edit*

Just wanted to add some Fitz highlights - just because who doesn't love to watch highlights?!? http://www.youtube.c...feature=related

You know what I really come away with after all this, Saint? Both Fitz and Harrison were very different style WRs but both great to watch. Although getting older has it's disadvantages, being able to say that I watched Harrison in his prime along with other great WRs playing today such as Fitz is not one of them. Good times.

 

[Saint]

Both Fitz and Harrison were very different style WRs but both great to watch. Although getting older has it's disadvantages, being able to say that I watched Harrison in his prime along with other great WRs playing today such as Fitz is not one of them. Good times.

Spot on dude. Looking forward to some future posts. Good discussion.

 

[footballnerd]

looking good, if they are down each week he could have a nice season.

 

[rocketsauce]

The answer is yes, apparently.

23.6 pts from my WR1.

 

[ADP]

Wayne is real deal....No matter how good QB is, you still need to run routes, get open, and most importantly, catch the ball!!

 

[Raider Nation]

Is this Kerry's show no matter how bad it gets (because of the relatively big contract)?

Or does Painter get a shot if the Colts start out 0-4, 1-5, etc.?