The Rookie Wall (1 Viewer)

[Lord Fantasy]

I have the good fortune of having both CJ3 and Forte. Both have them some tasty playoff matchups, but the veterans in my league are warning me not to get my hopes up. Something about how the college season is shorter, rookies aren't up to speed on conditioning, etc., etc.

I'm only in my second season of fantasy. Until recently, I didn't even care about football. (I know. Crazy. But at least I'm working on making up for lost time.)

So is there such a thing as a rookie wall? Or are my friends pulling some Candyman shizz on me?

And if the rookie wall exists, how do I know if one of my guys has hit it? Or is this one of those deals where you only find out after it's too late?

Thanks for the wisdom,

Cooley's Angels

 

[compone]

I have the good fortune of having both CJ3 and Forte. Both have them some tasty playoff matchups, but the veterans in my league are warning me not to get my hopes up. Something about how the college season is shorter, rookies aren't up to speed on conditioning, etc., etc. I'm only in my second season of fantasy. Until recently, I didn't even care about football. (I know. Crazy. But at least I'm working on making up for lost time.)So is there such a thing as a rookie wall? Or are my friends pulling some Candyman shizz on me? And if the rookie wall exists, how do I know if one of my guys has hit it? Or is this one of those deals where you only find out after it's too late? Thanks for the wisdom, Cooley's Angels

Yes, it exsists, see Steve Slaton from last week! However, that doesn't mean your rookies will hit a wall. Are they trying to trade for these guys? If so, it's a ploy to get them IMO. Most of the rookies in the NFL are used to playing 12-13 games from college, so getting 20 carries/touches a game is normal. That equates to 240-260 carries/touches over 12-13 games. Maybe they get tired in college at game 10-11, who knows, but I would put the mark about 250 carries/touches before I would even consider them even possibly having a chance to hit this "rookie wall". All Rbs get banged up and what not so there are many different contributing aspects to a rookies year.Forte 189 carries, 37 receptions = 226CJ3 160 carries, 26 receptions = 186Keep an eye on Forte maybe week 12 and see how he does. I would say keep an eye on CJ3 week 14. I traded Slaton prior to his "rookie wall", packaged in with Rice and Roddy White to get Barber, but it's in a deep 14 team keeper league. Good luck!

 

[dgreen]

It's not the number of games or the number of carries. These guys go from Bowl games in Dec/Jan to working out for the draft to minicamp to offseason workouts to training camp to preseason to the regular season. Not to mention some of the high draft picks are paraded around doing appearances and other things. It's not the extra 4-5 games a year. It's the increase from a part time job to a full time job. From spending hours upon hours hanging with friends in dorms or at frat parties to studying late at night and going to meetings upon meetings.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...oosechase11.php

The rookie wall is a myth.

 

[Modog814]

Agree with Compone.

It does exist. However all players are different. At this point I'd be more concerned with Forte than with CJ3 (at this poitn) because of White taking some carries in particular the "tougher" short yardage carries. It's something to keep an eye out for and be open to trades. Don't trade just to get rid of them but if you can get decent value for them it's something to consider.

Yesterday I traded away CJ3 partly for this reason, partly because he was my 3rd RB (maybe 4th depending on matchups, Westy, Turner, CJ3, and DeWill) and i desired an upgrade at QB. Compone gave a good guideline but you might want to check out their college stats and see how many touches they were getting in the college game. Remember generally NFL players run faster and hit harder than college players so keep that in mind as well.

 

[dotman]

I think the rookie wall can affect a RB the most since he is taking more hits than any other position on the field...and those hits are harder at the NFL level as opposed to college. As mentioned, it seems Steve Slaton has worn down a bit but he was getting a lot of touches for a smaller guy. A lot of small backs who were succesful in the NFL did not handle a full load their first year. If I were you, I wouldn't be concerned about Chris Johnson much since Lendale takes some of the load off of him. Forte is a concern though. I actually traded him away for Ronnie Brown earlier this year and the fantasy playoffs was a big factor in that deal. It is a very real possibility his production will lower during the playoffs. He did have 380 touches in college last year but now he is on pace for about 400 touches and I don't think he can be as effective as his touches approach that number.

 

[WiDDoW_MaKeR]

As with any label... it doesn't fit everyone.

 

[gonzobill5]

I have the good fortune of having both CJ3 and Forte. Both have them some tasty playoff matchups, but the veterans in my league are warning me not to get my hopes up. Something about how the college season is shorter, rookies aren't up to speed on conditioning, etc., etc. I'm only in my second season of fantasy. Until recently, I didn't even care about football. (I know. Crazy. But at least I'm working on making up for lost time.)So is there such a thing as a rookie wall? Or are my friends pulling some Candyman shizz on me? And if the rookie wall exists, how do I know if one of my guys has hit it? Or is this one of those deals where you only find out after it's too late? Thanks for the wisdom, Cooley's Angels

Yes, it exsists, see Steve Slaton from last week! However, that doesn't mean your rookies will hit a wall. Are they trying to trade for these guys? If so, it's a ploy to get them IMO. Most of the rookies in the NFL are used to playing 12-13 games from college, so getting 20 carries/touches a game is normal. That equates to 240-260 carries/touches over 12-13 games. Maybe they get tired in college at game 10-11, who knows, but I would put the mark about 250 carries/touches before I would even consider them even possibly having a chance to hit this "rookie wall". All Rbs get banged up and what not so there are many different contributing aspects to a rookies year.Forte 189 carries, 37 receptions = 226CJ3 160 carries, 26 receptions = 186Keep an eye on Forte maybe week 12 and see how he does. I would say keep an eye on CJ3 week 14. I traded Slaton prior to his "rookie wall", packaged in with Rice and Roddy White to get Barber, but it's in a deep 14 team keeper league. Good luck!

Its not the number of games or carries. Forte touched the ball 400 times for Tulane last year. If there is a rookie wall, its because defensive coordinators realizing these players are legit threats and designing schemes to take away their strengths. Last year AP had a lot of trouble against the 49ers 3-4 (might have been the first time he faced one...really no idea). Watch up for things like that with these rookies - same goes for the rookie QBs. A lot of people are relying on Ryan to keep it up, I would be wary.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Thanks, Chase. I'm embarrassed to say that I skipped your column this week, and this is a good reminder not to do that again.

Also, thanks for the QBBC updates. I used the strategy to draft Culter and Rodgers, but then traded Rodgers early. But I'm still a believer in the idea and will try it again next year.

Cheers,

CA

 

[Modog814]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...oosechase11.php

The rookie wall is a myth.

I'm not sure that your study proves that the rookie wall is a myth. Couldn't the increased production in the later part of the year be attributed to other factors? Such as fewer carries in the beginning of the year?Just looking at the 3 biggest finishers:

William Green in 2002 has 67 carries the first half of the season for a 2.2 YPC avg, the 2nd half he had 176 for 4.2 avg. IMO I don't think he's a candidate to hit the rookie wall to begin with.

Portis looks legit, although he did see 45 more carries in the 2nd half of the season.

Kevin Jones had 69 carries in the 1st half of the year for 3.3 ypc, and 172 in the 2nd half for 5.3. Again, not IMO a candidate to hit the rookie wall.

A rookie that gets 5 carries a game for a 4 ypc average over the first 10 games, suddenly the stud RB goes down and the rookie gets a shot a and produces 20 carries for a 4.1 ypc averege is going to say "he got better" over the course of the year. But he really just got the opportunity and wasn't given a chance to hit the rookie wall.

I think a better study would be to measures a Rookie performance pre Xth touch & post Xth touch where X is some figure where we'd think the Rookie Wall would most likely occur, say 200 carries/touches. You could then chart in chronological order the results of the ith touch and see the overall trend.

 

[Modog814]

Just to add to this, I took a quick look at R. Brown (tops on the fader list) and K. Jones (3rd of the advancer list). I used these 2 b/c they were highest on their respective list that FBG's had play-by-play data on for their rookie season.

Ronnie Brown seems to hit the wall around his 130th carry where prior to that carry he had a ypc of 4.82, after that carry he averaged only 3.74 ypc over his final 74 carries in the year.

Kevin Jones seemed to hit the wall around his 164th carry where prior to that carry he averaged 4.99 ypc after that carry he had an ypc of 4.08 ypc.

 

[renesauz]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...oosechase11.php

The rookie wall is a myth.

I'm not sure that your study proves that the rookie wall is a myth. Couldn't the increased production in the later part of the year be attributed to other factors? Such as fewer carries in the beginning of the year?

Sure it could, but even when you split it out and count only the higher carry backs, you still see just as many backs increasing production as decreasing.Be that as it may, this is one of several fantasy myths that is unlikely to ever go away. The true sharks simply take advantage of it

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

It's true, except when it isn't.

 

[T.A.]

It's true, except when it isn't.

Oddly

 

[Modog814]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...oosechase11.php

The rookie wall is a myth.

I'm not sure that your study proves that the rookie wall is a myth. Couldn't the increased production in the later part of the year be attributed to other factors? Such as fewer carries in the beginning of the year?

Sure it could, but even when you split it out and count only the higher carry backs, you still see just as many backs increasing production as decreasing.Be that as it may, this is one of several fantasy myths that is unlikely to ever go away. The true sharks simply take advantage of it

Has there been a study done on this? I was saying that I think Chase's method is flawed, and only including higher carry backs doesn't make it any less flawed.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Whether or not Chase's study is flawed, it seems to me that this is one of those things that feels true more than it is true . . . just like the Candyman.

Now here's another one for you:

Cold weather hurts WRs and benefits RBs.

Truth? Or Fantasy Myth?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...oosechase11.php

The rookie wall is a myth.

Sorry GB, but I think your study is flawed.From what I can tell you're looking for steady improvement. That fits the model well for a rookie who slowly gets into the fold and then breaks into the lineup towards the back half of the year.

It doesn't say anything about a player who bursts out early then could possibly fade.

The rookie wall is not a myth.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...oosechase11.php

The rookie wall is a myth.

Sorry GB, but I think your study is flawed.From what I can tell you're looking for steady improvement. That fits the model well for a rookie who slowly gets into the fold and then breaks into the lineup towards the back half of the year.

It doesn't say anything about a player who bursts out early then could possibly fade.

The rookie wall is not a myth.

Lots of players burst out early and then fade; that's not unique to rookies.In general, though, rookie RBs improve as the season progresses.

 

[T.A.]

In general, though, rookie RBs improve as the season progresses.

Means nothing without the context of a sizable workload early on.

 

[gonzobill5]

Hows this for a study to get to the bottom of it?

Take a sample of rookies that have come out of the gate strong, getting a lot of touches per game (say 20) and who were producing (maybe 10 or so ppg).

Take a sample of veterans (minimum 3 years in the league) that have had similar opportunities and similar success.

Choose players in these groups that are as similar as possible for the first 12 weeks of the season.

Compare their production over the next four weeks.

It sounds like a lot of work getting the groups match, so I thought I'd throw it out there if anyone wants to do the leg work.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

There were nine rookie RBs between 1993 and 2001 who logged at least twenty touches per game (320+ for the season):

LaDainian Tomlinson

Jamal Lewis

Edgerrin James

Robert Edwards

Eddie George

Karim Abdul-Jabbar

Curtis Martin

Marshall Faulk

Jerome Bettis

Unfortunately game logs at Pro Football Reference start in 1995, so I don't have information for Faulk and Bettis. Luckily, the following confirms the idea there's no rookie wall. Grouping the seven rookie seasons together by week you see the following:

Game.....Rush...Yards...Avg

Game 1...146....558....3.82

Game 2...133....475....3.57

Game 3...123....582....4.73

Game 4...122....505....4.14

Game 5...124....554....4.47

Game 6...151....435....2.88

Game 7...160....522....3.26

Game 8...126....459....3.64

Game 9...148....648....4.38

Game 10..153...682....4.46

Game 11..131...439....3.35

Game 12..150...711....4.74

Game 13..174...680....3.91

Game 14..156...711....4.56

Game 15..179...747....4.17

Game 16..141...527....3.74

So...

1st half: 136 average rushes per player and 3.77 YPC

2nd half: 176 average rushes per player and 4.18 YPC

More carries and more yards in the 2nd half of the season.

Yards per carry by quarter season?

1st four games, 4.05 YPC

2nd four games, 3.51 YPC

3rd four games, 4.26 YPC

4th four games, 4.10 YPC

 

[T.A.]

(320+ for the season):

Those that faded would likely not show up then.

 

[msommer]

(320+ for the season):

Those that faded would likely not show up then.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Use any criteria you like.

 

[renesauz]

Use any criteria you like.

Those who believe in the myth will continue to believe no matter what data you give them, because there will always be a few contrarian data points. It's one of those "truths" to take advantage of rather then fight.Similar to the RBBC myth.

 

[PatrickT]

Since Atlanta's been pretty dependent on rookie's, the AJC did an article on it. Say what you want, but I can tell you this much. The players and the coaching staff think it's real, and they've setup ways to help rookies deal with it.

Falcon's rookies hitting, fighting through wall

 

[Modog814]

There were nine rookie RBs between 1993 and 2001 who logged at least twenty touches per game (320+ for the season):LaDainian TomlinsonJamal LewisEdgerrin JamesRobert EdwardsEddie GeorgeKarim Abdul-JabbarCurtis MartinMarshall FaulkJerome BettisUnfortunately game logs at Pro Football Reference start in 1995, so I don't have information for Faulk and Bettis. Luckily, the following confirms the idea there's no rookie wall. Grouping the seven rookie seasons together by week you see the following:Game.....Rush...Yards...AvgGame 1...146....558....3.82Game 2...133....475....3.57Game 3...123....582....4.73Game 4...122....505....4.14Game 5...124....554....4.47Game 6...151....435....2.88Game 7...160....522....3.26Game 8...126....459....3.64Game 9...148....648....4.38Game 10..153...682....4.46Game 11..131...439....3.35Game 12..150...711....4.74Game 13..174...680....3.91Game 14..156...711....4.56Game 15..179...747....4.17Game 16..141...527....3.74So...1st half: 136 average rushes per player and 3.77 YPC2nd half: 176 average rushes per player and 4.18 YPCMore carries and more yards in the 2nd half of the season.Yards per carry by quarter season?1st four games, 4.05 YPC2nd four games, 3.51 YPC3rd four games, 4.26 YPC4th four games, 4.10 YPC

This is flawed too. You're assuming that by Rookie Wall there is a specific point where production decreases and that same point applies to every player. Which I dont' think anyone is arguing that this point exists. What the "Rookie Wall" is referring to is a point for a player in which production drops after that point. So you can't just group players together because their walls are different, you have to look at them individually.I don't believe that the Rookie Wall is a myth, but I do tend to think that the concept isn't very useful if you don't know when the wall is for a player.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

IMO the burden is on the myth makers to produce at least some shred of evidence in favor of the Rookie Wall. Right now none has been offered.

 

[MCguidance]

An act of nature, and we'll never fully understand it.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I've never played 4 preseason games, 16 regular season games, and God forbid--playoff games in the NFL. Have you? The players are the ones who talk about it. The guys who do it believe in it. I'll take their word for it.

In order to get a fair study, you have to look at guys that get a high # of reps from week 1 on. If you don't, players that earn more playing time as they learn schemes and playbooks and prove themselves will skew the #s significantly towards improving late-season stats.