The Shark Pool Trap (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

Footballguys.com, and the Shark Pool, are the best sources for FF that I have ever been able to use, and you guys are the primary reason I won my league last year and I hope to win this year.

But there is also a trap that I fell into last night. The players in my league are not stupid guys, but they live busy lives and don't keep as up to date on preseason football as I do (mostly thanks to this site) which gives me a leg up on drafting- they are mostly relying on magazines. But herein also lies the trap- you guys constantly raise my perception of ADP for several players far beyond what my opponents think they are. As a result, I am drafting guys way too high for my league. Examples:

1. I took Jahvid Best in the 4th round. Based on all the hype here, I was eager to get him that low. Yet based on the reaction, I could have waited another couple of rounds.

2. In the 5th round I took Finley; again, based on what I have read here, I was ecstactic. But most of my opponents were scratching their heads; in their minds, Finley was still below Clark, Davis, Witten, none of whom had yet been taken. Now I think that in my league I could have waited 2-3 more rounds, perhaps longer.

The fault is mine. What I need to remind myself in the future is, as good as you guys are, your ADPs are based on leagues in which every player is seemingly an expert and completely up to date with everything. In addition, so many of you guys are drafting in several leagues- surely that is unusual? I only have the time and inclination for one league, and I'm betting that most people who are in FF do the same.

So, if you are reading this and you haven't yet drafted, and if your league is anywhere similar to mine: avoid the trap. Keep your eye on these players whose ADP keeps rising here, but realize that they are unlikely to rise in your league nearly as fast. That way they will be steals for you, and you will be able to take greater advantage of earlier rounds, which I did not.

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

Well said, if your drafting with the Sharks by all means. I did a draft last week as well, took Huggins late and guys were like "Who?"

 

[ScottyDog]

Thank you for this excellent post. This is exactly what happens to me in my league. I don't really know how to avoid it though. You know who you want and sometimes you need to make sure you get them. Even though you are more up on things than other people in the league there always seems to be that guy that has been "coached" by a friend or relative of who the "hot" players are that comes out of nowhere and snags your guy. Good post, I appreciate it.

 

[everydayj]

On the flip side, who's to say that somebody else didn't want to pick either of those guys before you would have had a chance to pick next. While I understand that guys like Finley and Best definitely lead the hype-train around here, nobody will be making fun of your picks if you end up winning your league because of them.

I say that knowing that I'm in essentially the same type of league that you are. It's full of smart guys for the most part, and none of the other guys subscribe to FBG that I know of. However, I get the fear when it comes to guys like Finley and Best. FBG isn't the only site hyping these guys up. Try looking at one of Berry's articles so that you're aware of what's being pumped out to the "common man". Heh. I have to say that I was pretty unhappy going over there last night and reading an article that pumped up Kareem Huggins.

 

[John555]

Getting Best in the 4th is still a steal.

 

[TitanicHornet]

At then end of the day, you take value when it presents itself. Yes your league mates didnt agree with your Finely pick but you will have the last laugh if he ends the year as a top 3 TE.

I remember taking Gates in 04-05 and many managers said "who?" look at what Gates has done. Sometimes it pays to reach.

ETA: Best in the 4th is a damn steal.

 

[belljr]

I fell into the Finley trap, maybe because I have remorse from my dynasty league. Anyway I use the App Cheatsheet that you can enter your exact scoring system in my redfraft league.

It has some ranking skewed compared to "generic" rankings. I took Finley in the third and was slammed for it. Deservedly so, but I fell into the trap. The overall rankings in the green section has Finley ranked 20th overall but his ADP is no where near that. I took the chance. My Rb's took a hit but overall I feel ok.

 

[timschochet]

ETA: Best in the 4th is a damn steal.

My whole point is that in my league it wasn't. Don't get me wrong, I'm not unhappy with it. But I could have done even better. I didn't maximize my situation. I could have taken another quality WR or RB at that position and still taken Best in Rnd 5 and Finley in rnd 6, at least. By not judging my opponents correctly, I essentially lost a draft pick that I would now like to have back.

 

[Ilov80s]

ETA: Best in the 4th is a damn steal.

My whole point is that in my league it wasn't. Don't get me wrong, I'm not unhappy with it. But I could have done even better. I didn't maximize my situation. I could have taken another quality WR or RB at that position and still taken Best in Rnd 5 and Finley in rnd 6, at least. By not judging my opponents correctly, I essentially lost a draft pick that I would now like to have back.

All it takes is 1 other guy to like Best for him to be taken before it comes back to you. Best has been getting hype on NFL.com, Yahoo, ESPN. I think every site has him rising up in the rankings. He may not have made it and then you'd be kicking yourself for not just taking the guy you wanted in the first place.

 

[Garts]

Footballguys.com, and the Shark Pool, are the best sources for FF that I have ever been able to use, and you guys are the primary reason I won my league last year and I hope to win this year. But there is also a trap that I fell into last night. The players in my league are not stupid guys, but they live busy lives and don't keep as up to date on preseason football as I do (mostly thanks to this site) which gives me a leg up on drafting- they are mostly relying on magazines. But herein also lies the trap- you guys constantly raise my perception of ADP for several players far beyond what my opponents think they are. As a result, I am drafting guys way too high for my league. Examples:1. I took Jahvid Best in the 4th round. Based on all the hype here, I was eager to get him that low. Yet based on the reaction, I could have waited another couple of rounds.2. In the 5th round I took Finley; again, based on what I have read here, I was ecstactic. But most of my opponents were scratching their heads; in their minds, Finley was still below Clark, Davis, Witten, none of whom had yet been taken. Now I think that in my league I could have waited 2-3 more rounds, perhaps longer.The fault is mine. What I need to remind myself in the future is, as good as you guys are, your ADPs are based on leagues in which every player is seemingly an expert and completely up to date with everything. In addition, so many of you guys are drafting in several leagues- surely that is unusual? I only have the time and inclination for one league, and I'm betting that most people who are in FF do the same. So, if you are reading this and you haven't yet drafted, and if your league is anywhere similar to mine: avoid the trap. Keep your eye on these players whose ADP keeps rising here, but realize that they are unlikely to rise in your league nearly as fast. That way they will be steals for you, and you will be able to take greater advantage of earlier rounds, which I did not.

But how would you know these guys would drop unless you picked them? I guess you could ask around and see where guys had Best going....but then you tip them off and guys start scouring their info and take notice.you can't blow your leads on players either...

 

[Steve Tasker]

Well said, if your drafting with the Sharks by all means. I did a draft last week as well, took Huggins late and guys were like "Who?"

Bob?

 

[red]

my league has a bunch of guppies, a couple of solid drafters and a couple of sharks. so while it would be great to wait on best or finley, sometimes you just can't risk it knowing that there's a couple of sharks in the draft who might snatch them up a pick or round before you. you still got to draft your team and stick to your strategy which includes knowing your league mates and their tendencies/needs.

 

[timschochet]

ETA: Best in the 4th is a damn steal.

My whole point is that in my league it wasn't. Don't get me wrong, I'm not unhappy with it. But I could have done even better. I didn't maximize my situation. I could have taken another quality WR or RB at that position and still taken Best in Rnd 5 and Finley in rnd 6, at least. By not judging my opponents correctly, I essentially lost a draft pick that I would now like to have back.

All it takes is 1 other guy to like Best for him to be taken before it comes back to you. Best has been getting hype on NFL.com, Yahoo, ESPN. I think every site has him rising up in the rankings. He may not have made it and then you'd be kicking yourself for not just taking the guy you wanted in the first place.

I see your point. And of course I saw it last night. I always go in thinking that at least one of my opponents is following this carefully. Last night, they weren't though.

 

[Tom Baker]

I read a horrifying tale once of a shark that was eaten by guppies.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Well said, if your drafting with the Sharks by all means. I did a draft last week as well, took Huggins late and guys were like "Who?"

Who?

 

[timschochet]

Here's the other thing that happened to me last night, and I'm curious if you guys ever do this: I don't like Chad Ochocinco. I think he's too inconsistent, and I'm not sure about Palmer, so I was determined not to draft Chad. Yet there he was in round 7, undrafted, and my cheat sheet is showing he should have gone around round 4. But nobody touched him. So I grabbed him up, thinking that I was getting good value on a guy who should have been taken much earlier. BUT I DON'T LIKE HIM. I don't trust him. And now he's on my team, as my WR2.

Do you guys take a player you don't like in situations like that?

 

[[icon]]

Problem Solved

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

maybe you're just the guy that the draft dominator guy in the other thread's complaining about.

 

[timschochet]

Problem Solved

That's actually the list I used (the PPR version.) I used that list, and had players circled that I was especially interested in.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

One of the more satisfying feelings you can have as an owner is to 'overdraft' a player in terms of what your league mates think and then have that player outperform his over drafted position.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Here's the other thing that happened to me last night, and I'm curious if you guys ever do this: I don't like Chad Ochocinco. I think he's too inconsistent, and I'm not sure about Palmer, so I was determined not to draft Chad. Yet there he was in round 7, undrafted, and my cheat sheet is showing he should have gone around round 4. But nobody touched him. So I grabbed him up, thinking that I was getting good value on a guy who should have been taken much earlier. BUT I DON'T LIKE HIM. I don't trust him. And now he's on my team, as my WR2. Do you guys take a player you don't like in situations like that?

No I don't take the guy. 85 is one of those players I won't take...regardless of the situation. The others include - TO, Matt Hasselbeck, and Jeff Garcia. I added Jeff Garcia for any of you that draft players from the UFL. He is now the starting qb for the Omaha Nighthawks.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

If best and finley hit their ceilings, you wont regret those picks at all. making sure you get your guys is much more important than getting cute and making sure you get "value" at every pick. Ray Rice getting as high as the 4th/5th after going 7th/8th or later all offseason is a terrific example.

 

[davidwb]

re: 85

You take value as it presents itself. you might not want Ochocinco at his usual ADP, or even where FBGs and others think he should go, but in the 7th round? Probably a great vaule and a wonderful pick there.

 

[timschochet]

If best and finley hit their ceilings, you wont regret those picks at all. making sure you get your guys is much more important than getting cute and making sure you get "value" at every pick. Ray Rice getting as high as the 4th/5th after going 7th/8th or later all offseason is a terrific example.

I guess that makes since. What about the Ocho pick? Does it make sense to take a player you don't like if he's still on the board way below his ADP?

 

[nysportsfan]

If best and finley hit their ceilings, you wont regret those picks at all. making sure you get your guys is much more important than getting cute and making sure you get "value" at every pick. Ray Rice getting as high as the 4th/5th after going 7th/8th or later all offseason is a terrific example.

I guess that makes since. What about the Ocho pick? Does it make sense to take a player you don't like if he's still on the board way below his ADP?

I don't mind taking a guy i don't particularly want if he presents value. It means that while that guy was dropping, I was adding value at other positions. 85 in the 7th is a no brainer, IMO, and should be taken. It allowed you to take Best, Finley, and your 6th before 85. Pretty sweet steal if you ask me.And Sig's point is well taken - if those two guys do as well as I think they will, you could have taken them 2 full rounds earlier and still had value at the end of the day. Chris Johnson last year. Late first rounder, but if I picked him 1st overall people would have said, "what a bd pick...reach!..." when in the end it was the right call.

 

[Avery]

ETA: Best in the 4th is a damn steal.

My whole point is that in my league it wasn't. Don't get me wrong, I'm not unhappy with it. But I could have done even better. I didn't maximize my situation. I could have taken another quality WR or RB at that position and still taken Best in Rnd 5 and Finley in rnd 6, at least. By not judging my opponents correctly, I essentially lost a draft pick that I would now like to have back.

You're over thinking this and misusing ADP.Sure take your knowledge of your league into account. You think you can wait on a player, great. But if best performs as good as a 2nd or 3rd rounder, getting him in the 4th is a great pick, even if you think you could have gotten him a round later.I've learned over the years that if you want a player and believe in him, go get him. Don't get cute and think you can wait too long.

 

[The_Wolfman]

If best and finley hit their ceilings, you wont regret those picks at all. making sure you get your guys is much more important than getting cute and making sure you get "value" at every pick. Ray Rice getting as high as the 4th/5th after going 7th/8th or later all offseason is a terrific example.

I guess that makes since. What about the Ocho pick? Does it make sense to take a player you don't like if he's still on the board way below his ADP?

Yes, unless you are always 100% right about your pre-season predictions for players. If you pass, but were wrong about him you lost out on a great value, that would have likely been a key contributer to a winning team. If you're right, well at least you didn't overpay for him. You can't go 100% on ADP or 100% on gut instinct, you have to find a balance between the two.

 

[TitanicHornet]

If best and finley hit their ceilings, you wont regret those picks at all. making sure you get your guys is much more important than getting cute and making sure you get "value" at every pick. Ray Rice getting as high as the 4th/5th after going 7th/8th or later all offseason is a terrific example.

I guess that makes since. What about the Ocho pick? Does it make sense to take a player you don't like if he's still on the board way below his ADP?

You are falling into the "do not draft" trap. Players that represent value but you dont like them.You dont like Chad, thats fair enough. Take him if the ADP is stupid and use him as trade bait. Always take the best value and dont let your own personal opinion on a persons character effect it. You dont want 85 but you never know you might have an opponent who has a "man crush" on him.ETA. Cant spell.

 

[shadyridr]

I find the exact opposite in my league. People take guys way above their ADP if they want them cuz they have no clue what their ADP is. And my league is mostly magazine drafters too.

 

[timschochet]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:

1. Rice

2. Romo

3. Marshall

4. Best

5. Finley

6. Foster

7. Ochocinco

8. Sims-Walker

9. Portis

10. Leon Washington

11. Terrell Owens

12. Mike Williams (TB)

13. 49ers

14. Kareem Huggins

15. Rackers

16. Jacoby Jones

 

[HellToupee]

One of the more satisfying feelings you can have as an owner is to 'overdraft' a player in terms of what your league mates think and then have that player outperform his over drafted position.

I'd rather reach & get the guy I want then wait & maybe miss the player

 

[nysportsfan]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:1. Rice2. Romo3. Marshall4. Best5. Finley6. Foster7. Ochocinco8. Sims-Walker9. Portis10. Leon Washington11. Terrell Owens12. Mike Williams (TB)13. 49ers14. Kareem Huggins15. Rackers16. Jacoby Jones

I only disagree with one pick - and it's more a matter of strategy - and that's drafting a QB early. I like the team, you should compete for sure

 

[destro]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:

1. Rice

2. Romo

3. Marshall

4. Best

5. Finley

6. Foster

7. Ochocinco

8. Sims-Walker

9. Portis

10. Leon Washington

11. Terrell Owens

12. Mike Williams (TB)

13. 49ers

14. Kareem Huggins

15. Rackers

16. Jacoby Jones

Don't fall into the Shark Pool Trap of... dominating your league of guppies!

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:1. Rice2. Romo3. Marshall4. Best5. Finley6. Foster7. Ochocinco8. Sims-Walker9. Portis10. Leon Washington11. Terrell Owens12. Mike Williams (TB)13. 49ers14. Kareem Huggins15. Rackers16. Jacoby Jones

the shark pool trap of starting a thread to post your roster.

 

[saintsfan]

This is a great post and something I've been thinking about all week. Especially as related to Finley. In my league, I really would be surprised if he went before any of the following

Gates

Gonzo

VD

Witten

Clark

maybe even Celek

If my assumption is correct and I get Finley as the 6th or (dare to dream) the 7th TE off the board, I'm gonna laugh ll the way to the bank.

 

[TitanicHornet]

This is a great post and something I've been thinking about all week. Especially as related to Finley. In my league, I really would be surprised if he went before any of the followingGatesGonzoVDWittenClarkmaybe even CelekIf my assumption is correct and I get Finley as the 6th or (dare to dream) the 7th TE off the board, I'm gonna laugh ll the way to the bank.

Based on what I have seen, I would take Finley above Gonvo and Witten. Ill place Gates, Clark and V. Davis (just) above Finley. TEs start to run off the board mid 3rd early 4th and I think Finley is a steal mid to late 5th if he lasts that long. The word is spreading, grab him when you can.

 

[TheArchitect]

Footballguys.com, and the Shark Pool, are the best sources for FF that I have ever been able to use, and you guys are the primary reason I won my league last year and I hope to win this year. But there is also a trap that I fell into last night. The players in my league are not stupid guys, but they live busy lives and don't keep as up to date on preseason football as I do (mostly thanks to this site) which gives me a leg up on drafting- they are mostly relying on magazines. But herein also lies the trap- you guys constantly raise my perception of ADP for several players far beyond what my opponents think they are. As a result, I am drafting guys way too high for my league. Examples:1. I took Jahvid Best in the 4th round. Based on all the hype here, I was eager to get him that low. Yet based on the reaction, I could have waited another couple of rounds.2. In the 5th round I took Finley; again, based on what I have read here, I was ecstactic. But most of my opponents were scratching their heads; in their minds, Finley was still below Clark, Davis, Witten, none of whom had yet been taken. Now I think that in my league I could have waited 2-3 more rounds, perhaps longer.The fault is mine. What I need to remind myself in the future is, as good as you guys are, your ADPs are based on leagues in which every player is seemingly an expert and completely up to date with everything. In addition, so many of you guys are drafting in several leagues- surely that is unusual? I only have the time and inclination for one league, and I'm betting that most people who are in FF do the same. So, if you are reading this and you haven't yet drafted, and if your league is anywhere similar to mine: avoid the trap. Keep your eye on these players whose ADP keeps rising here, but realize that they are unlikely to rise in your league nearly as fast. That way they will be steals for you, and you will be able to take greater advantage of earlier rounds, which I did not.

It definitely depends on your league. My league is a very competitive 16-team IDP re-draft. Best went 2.10 and Finley went 5.6... Don't beat yourself up too much... of course value is important, but as long as you go the best available player on your draft board at any particular pick, then you should be good to go. Besides, it only takes one well-prepared owner in your league to ruin the best laid draft strategy. Hind sight is 20-20. All you can be sure of is what was available at the moment you picked. No guarantees that Best or Finley would have dropped much farther. Guys in my league will talk trash just to make you second guess, but in the back of their minds are thinking "did i miss something here?" You're the champ, so set the pace. BTW, Finley looks like he's definitely a Top 3 TE this year!HOWEVER, I did run into the exact same problem with my IDPs and found myself in the middle rounds consistently reaching for the guys I wanted It's definitely easy to forget that not everyone has access to the same info and to think that everyone sees the same value you see. I probably overbid for free agents (we use FAAB) on as regular basis. Isn't FBG great!?!

 

[Tom Baker]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:1. Rice2. Romo3. Marshall4. Best5. Finley6. Foster7. Ochocinco8. Sims-Walker9. Portis10. Leon Washington11. Terrell Owens12. Mike Williams (TB)13. 49ers14. Kareem Huggins15. Rackers16. Jacoby Jones

Not so sure you're playing with guppies. I'd like to see the rest of the draft.

 

[Restricted]

I find the exact opposite in my league. People take guys way above their ADP if they want them cuz they have no clue what their ADP is. And my league is mostly magazine drafters too.

2rded. People that don't follow draft position can be wildcards. Especially after something like watching the GB/Colts game. Finley will probably go 3rd round or something silly like that. I find that value based drafting really works best for those sorts as they will tend to let a few through. Also, you can really scoop a lot of the good late round prospects as they continue to draft names they know.

 

[We Tigers]

This kinda happened to me last night, too. I was at the end of a 14-teamer with 3 keepers, and reached slightly for Foster and Finley at the 4/5 turn, #56 and #57 overall. They were the two best guys on my board at that point, but in hindsight, Finley miiiiiiight have gotten back to me. Still, 26 picks is a long time to hope.

The more I research players in the offseason, the more I like picking in the middle of the draft. Being at either end makes finding value quite a challenge when you're in information-overload mode; if I like a guy 15-20 slots more than his ADP, chances are I'm not going to get a deal after all because I need to take him there anyway since 22+ players are coming off the board before I pick next. If you're picking every 10-12 picks, you've got a way better chance of "stealing" your guys without overpaying for them.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Problem Solved

Is there a way to have this be another DD column (or swap it for the ADP which is wildly off)

 

[Hoart Petterson]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:1. Rice2. Romo3. Marshall4. Best5. Finley6. Foster7. Ochocinco8. Sims-Walker9. Portis10. Leon Washington11. Terrell Owens12. Mike Williams (TB)13. 49ers14. Kareem Huggins15. Rackers16. Jacoby Jones

the shark pool trap of starting a thread to post your roster.

Saw it coming a mile away.

 

[thatguy]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:1. Rice2. Romo3. Marshall4. Best5. Finley6. Foster7. Ochocinco8. Sims-Walker9. Portis10. Leon Washington11. Terrell Owens12. Mike Williams (TB)13. 49ers14. Kareem Huggins15. Rackers16. Jacoby Jones

Mission accomplished. Now you can bask in the glory of all the "oohs" and "ahhs" from admiring and envious posters.Nah, I'm just kidding. But seriously, you can.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

If you miss on the guys you want you will be disappointed though. If you've done your research, and if they fit into the plan you make as you draft, go ahead and grab them.

 

[Buffaloes]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:

1. Rice

2. Romo

3. Marshall

4. Best

5. Finley

6. Foster

7. Ochocinco

8. Sims-Walker

9. Portis

10. Leon Washington

11. Terrell Owens

12. Mike Williams (TB)

13. 49ers

14. Kareem Huggins

15. Rackers

16. Jacoby Jones

Please see mine?

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

With a loaded rooster like that, who do you plan on starting Week 1?

 

[billyjohnson]

Magazines?? I don't know anyone under 50 who still uses those.

 

[TheArchitect]

I find the exact opposite in my league. People take guys way above their ADP if they want them cuz they have no clue what their ADP is. And my league is mostly magazine drafters too.

2rded. People that don't follow draft position can be wildcards. Especially after something like watching the GB/Colts game. Finley will probably go 3rd round or something silly like that. I find that value based drafting really works best for those sorts as they will tend to let a few through. Also, you can really scoop a lot of the good late round prospects as they continue to draft names they know.

 

[TheArchitect]

This kinda happened to me last night, too. I was at the end of a 14-teamer with 3 keepers, and reached slightly for Foster and Finley at the 4/5 turn, #56 and #57 overall. They were the two best guys on my board at that point, but in hindsight, Finley miiiiiiight have gotten back to me. Still, 26 picks is a long time to hope. The more I research players in the offseason, the more I like picking in the middle of the draft. Being at either end makes finding value quite a challenge when you're in information-overload mode; if I like a guy 15-20 slots more than his ADP, chances are I'm not going to get a deal after all because I need to take him there anyway since 22+ players are coming off the board before I pick next. If you're picking every 10-12 picks, you've got a way better chance of "stealing" your guys without overpaying for them.

Exactly! The key to a "perfect draft" from the middle spots is taking what the draft gives you. That's where I've found DD to be a very valuable tool.

 

[TheArchitect]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:1. Rice2. Romo3. Marshall4. Best5. Finley6. Foster7. Ochocinco8. Sims-Walker9. Portis10. Leon Washington11. Terrell Owens12. Mike Williams (TB)13. 49ers14. Kareem Huggins15. Rackers16. Jacoby Jones

Not so sure you're playing with guppies. I'd like to see the rest of the draft.

It's a 10-TEAM DRAFT!