The Shark Pool Trap (1 Viewer)

[the turnip]

Switch to an Auction. Problem solved.

 

[Christo]

On the flip side, who's to say that somebody else didn't want to pick either of those guys before you would have had a chance to pick next.

All it takes is one other owner.

 

[EBF]

This is a difficult line to toe in any draft. There are always a couple guys that I value well above their ADP. I often fall into the trap of thinking that everyone else sees the same thing and will reach. It usually doesn't work out that way, but it hasn't stopped me from grabbing guys well before they were slated to come off the board.

 

[Raider Nation]

1. I took Jahvid Best in the 4th round. Based on all the hype here, I was eager to get him that low. Yet based on the reaction, I could have waited another couple of rounds.

2. In the 5th round I took Finley; again, based on what I have read here, I was ecstactic. But most of my opponents were scratching their heads; in their minds, Finley was still below Clark, Davis, Witten, none of whom had yet been taken. Now I think that in my league I could have waited 2-3 more rounds, perhaps longer.

Did you poll the room after you picked to see how many of them had heard of Best and Finley? Were they supposed to get up and kick the dog and threaten to quit the league if you didn't pick someone else instead? If someone steals a player I badly wanted, I will sit there with a poker face. No way I'm giving him the satisfaction of knowing he got over on me.

 

[timschochet]

I knew I shouldn't have posted my team. It was only for the purpose of furthering the discussion about when to draft players, not a "hey look at me!" But nobody's going to believe me now anyhow.

As far as your question, Raider Nation, they all seemed genuinely mystified by my pick of Finley, both during the draft and afterwards. One of them read a comment on Sports Illustrated.Com where the guy said that Finley was a super sleeper who "might be this year's Brent Celek." (I checked-that quote is still there.) Regarding Arian Foster, he asked me why I would spend a middle round pick on someone who otherwise would likely not be drafted? (The magazine he had had Foster mentioned as the 3rd string back-up on Houston.) This is the discrepancy I'm talking about.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The remorse you feel from drafting the guy you want a round earlier than you may have had to is nothing compared to the remorse you feel when you wait a round and somebody vultures him.

Also, this is off-topic to the thread, but I think this is one more point in favor of auctions over serpentine drafts. In an auction, you know whether bidding a few bucks less would have still gotten the player, while in a serpentine draft you don't know whether waiting a round would have still gotten him. An owner who is really better prepared than his leaguemates therefore has more of an advantage in auctions, because he doesn't have to overpay "just in case" when nobody else is wise to a generally undervalued player.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

If someone steals a player I badly wanted, I will sit there with a poker face.

I will ask "who?" And then act like I have to flip back several pages in my cheatsheet to find him and cross him off the list.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Reminds me of the time I took a then unknown Antonio Gates in the 20th round as my TE #2, and guys in my league all asking "Antonio WHO!??" and laguhed at me for reaching at such a deep flyer.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

If someone steals a player I badly wanted, I will sit there with a poker face. No way I'm giving him the satisfaction of knowing he got over on me.

You are not a man. You are a piece of iron.

 

[Raider Nation]

If someone steals a player I badly wanted, I will sit there with a poker face.

I will ask "who?" And then act like I have to flip back several pages in my cheatsheet to find him and cross him off the list.

I play

after every pick by other owners. Never gets old.

 

[thatguy]

I knew I shouldn't have posted my team. It was only for the purpose of furthering the discussion about when to draft players, not a "hey look at me!" But nobody's going to believe me now anyhow.

As far as your question, Raider Nation, they all seemed genuinely mystified by my pick of Finley, both during the draft and afterwards. One of them read a comment on Sports Illustrated.Com where the guy said that Finley was a super sleeper who "might be this year's Brent Celek." (I checked-that quote is still there.) Regarding Arian Foster, he asked me why I would spend a middle round pick on someone who otherwise would likely not be drafted? (The magazine he had had Foster mentioned as the 3rd string back-up on Houston.) This is the discrepancy I'm talking about.

I was just giving you a hard time. You can understand why people would think that, though, given how often it occurs.

 

[saintsfan]

This is a great post and something I've been thinking about all week. Especially as related to Finley. In my league, I really would be surprised if he went before any of the followingGatesGonzoVDWittenClarkmaybe even CelekIf my assumption is correct and I get Finley as the 6th or (dare to dream) the 7th TE off the board, I'm gonna laugh ll the way to the bank.

Based on what I have seen, I would take Finley above Gonvo and Witten. Ill place Gates, Clark and V. Davis (just) above Finley. TEs start to run off the board mid 3rd early 4th and I think Finley is a steal mid to late 5th if he lasts that long. The word is spreading, grab him when you can.

I don't disagree, I just think he will be drafted after those guys in my league. It's a very conservative league.

 

[Tau837]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:

1. Rice

2. Romo

3. Marshall

4. Best

5. Finley

6. Foster

7. Ochocinco

8. Sims-Walker

9. Portis

10. Leon Washington

11. Terrell Owens

12. Mike Williams (TB)

13. 49ers

14. Kareem Huggins

15. Rackers

16. Jacoby Jones

Don't fall into the Shark Pool Trap of... dominating your league of guppies!

 

[death of the cool]

I have my cheat sheet with adp from ESPN's live drafts (plenty of guppies among the sharks making those picks)...and I have my round by round plan broken down, and I stick to the plan unless someone I was interested in earlier falls back to me.

Sure sometimes you might could have waited, but like they said it only takes 1 person to draft a guy early. Frankly in some leagues guys just talk smack to get you off your game. If you feel these guys win you the championship, stick with them and throw it in everyones face when they do.

 

[bud reid gov job]

If best and finley hit their ceilings, you wont regret those picks at all. making sure you get your guys is much more important than getting cute and making sure you get "value" at every pick. Ray Rice getting as high as the 4th/5th after going 7th/8th or later all offseason is a terrific example.

I guess that makes since. What about the Ocho pick? Does it make sense to take a player you don't like if he's still on the board way below his ADP?

You are falling into the "do not draft" trap. Players that represent value but you dont like them.You dont like Chad, thats fair enough. Take him if the ADP is stupid and use him as trade bait. Always take the best value and dont let your own personal opinion on a persons character effect it. You dont want 85 but you never know you might have an opponent who has a "man crush" on him.ETA. Cant spell.

All though I agree with you that he should have taken Ocho at that spot because of the value, I don't think he should do it solely for the purpose of creating trade opportunities. If there were other people interested in him, he wouldn't have been there. I did it last year with Addai. I hated him and didn't want him on my team at all, but felt I had to take him as a value pick at the end of the 6th round when running backs were getting slim. Nobody else wanted him either and regardless of his decent stats early on, I couldn't even trade him for a 3rd WR/TE upgrade. Not sure what my point is though, as I still think I would do it again this year. You just need to be prepared to be stuck with the player who's ADP falls way below it should if you do decide to take them. Odds are, having them rostered will help your team, despite the fact you may want to vomit in your mouth a little everytime you set your lineup.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm struggling with this line of complaint. If youre really a shark it's as much your job to know your opponents and institute a game plan to maximize your draft against them. We provide a multitude of different ADP lists that you can use which give you a great idea of when the typical fantasy owner is taking players. Beyond that, if your owners scoffed that means they haven't done their homework and you should laughing all the way to your playoffs.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Footballguys.com, and the Shark Pool, are the best sources for FF that I have ever been able to use, and you guys are the primary reason I won my league last year and I hope to win this year. But there is also a trap that I fell into last night. The players in my league are not stupid guys, but they live busy lives and don't keep as up to date on preseason football as I do (mostly thanks to this site) which gives me a leg up on drafting- they are mostly relying on magazines. But herein also lies the trap- you guys constantly raise my perception of ADP for several players far beyond what my opponents think they are. As a result, I am drafting guys way too high for my league. Examples:1. I took Jahvid Best in the 4th round. Based on all the hype here, I was eager to get him that low. Yet based on the reaction, I could have waited another couple of rounds.2. In the 5th round I took Finley; again, based on what I have read here, I was ecstactic. But most of my opponents were scratching their heads; in their minds, Finley was still below Clark, Davis, Witten, none of whom had yet been taken. Now I think that in my league I could have waited 2-3 more rounds, perhaps longer.The fault is mine. What I need to remind myself in the future is, as good as you guys are, your ADPs are based on leagues in which every player is seemingly an expert and completely up to date with everything. In addition, so many of you guys are drafting in several leagues- surely that is unusual? I only have the time and inclination for one league, and I'm betting that most people who are in FF do the same. So, if you are reading this and you haven't yet drafted, and if your league is anywhere similar to mine: avoid the trap. Keep your eye on these players whose ADP keeps rising here, but realize that they are unlikely to rise in your league nearly as fast. That way they will be steals for you, and you will be able to take greater advantage of earlier rounds, which I did not.

Best in the 4th and Finley in the 5th...you have to draft them there. You say guys were scratching their heads, but it only takes 1 guy to draft them and if there were 5 guys scratching their heads and 2 guys that weren't, 1 was probably gritting his teeth that you got him and he didn't.By taking players like that in those rounds, that is a recipe for success, that's what you are getting here. So if you win the league again, a win is a win. You are much better off taking the guys you mentioned where you did than risking that 1 other guy in your league may take him just before you. You're a little off here, you did the right thing.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Like him or not, if you NEEDED a WR2 in the 7th, and Ocho was still on the board, that's a no brainer. I might...might...pass on a player I hated, even at a great value, rather than roster him for depth. But when you're still looking for points you can rely on, you snag the bargain and hope one of your later flyers can unseat him for you.

 

[Tom Baker]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:1. Rice2. Romo3. Marshall4. Best5. Finley6. Foster7. Ochocinco8. Sims-Walker9. Portis10. Leon Washington11. Terrell Owens12. Mike Williams (TB)13. 49ers14. Kareem Huggins15. Rackers16. Jacoby Jones

Not so sure you're playing with guppies. I'd like to see the rest of the draft.

It's a 10-TEAM DRAFT!

I wouldn't be happy with that roster in a 10 team league. Sorry.

 

[thatguy]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:1. Rice2. Romo3. Marshall4. Best5. Finley6. Foster7. Ochocinco8. Sims-Walker9. Portis10. Leon Washington11. Terrell Owens12. Mike Williams (TB)13. 49ers14. Kareem Huggins15. Rackers16. Jacoby Jones

Not so sure you're playing with guppies. I'd like to see the rest of the draft.

It's a 10-TEAM DRAFT!

I wouldn't be happy with that roster in a 10 team league. Sorry.

Looks pretty damn solid to me...QB: RomoRB: RiceRB: BestWR: MarshallWR: Ocho CincoFlex: Foster (I'm assuming the league has a flex spot, of course)TE: FinleyK: RackersDef: SFHe also has very good RB depth, okay WR depth.Yeah, I'd take my chances with that lineup in a 10-teamer, especially given that its PPR.

 

[Tom Baker]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:1. Rice2. Romo3. Marshall4. Best5. Finley6. Foster7. Ochocinco8. Sims-Walker9. Portis10. Leon Washington11. Terrell Owens12. Mike Williams (TB)13. 49ers14. Kareem Huggins15. Rackers16. Jacoby Jones

Not so sure you're playing with guppies. I'd like to see the rest of the draft.

It's a 10-TEAM DRAFT!

I wouldn't be happy with that roster in a 10 team league. Sorry.

Looks pretty damn solid to me...QB: RomoRB: RiceRB: BestWR: MarshallWR: Ocho CincoFlex: Foster (I'm assuming the league has a flex spot, of course)TE: FinleyK: RackersDef: SFHe also has very good RB depth, okay WR depth.Yeah, I'd take my chances with that lineup in a 10-teamer, especially given that its PPR.

10-team league. Playing with guys who are apparently clueless guppies. Could have done better. That's all I'm saying . . .

 

[southeastjerome]

You guys are making me feel a whole lot better about my draft. In a 10 player PPR league, I had the 5th pick:1. Rice2. Romo3. Marshall4. Best5. Finley6. Foster7. Ochocinco8. Sims-Walker9. Portis10. Leon Washington11. Terrell Owens12. Mike Williams (TB)13. 49ers14. Kareem Huggins15. Rackers16. Jacoby Jones

Not so sure you're playing with guppies. I'd like to see the rest of the draft.

It's a 10-TEAM DRAFT!

I wouldn't be happy with that roster in a 10 team league. Sorry.

Looks pretty damn solid to me...QB: RomoRB: RiceRB: BestWR: MarshallWR: Ocho CincoFlex: Foster (I'm assuming the league has a flex spot, of course)TE: FinleyK: RackersDef: SFHe also has very good RB depth, okay WR depth.Yeah, I'd take my chances with that lineup in a 10-teamer, especially given that its PPR.

That's a pretty damned solid lineup.