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The story of energy, cars, Tesla, and how change really happens. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BobbyLayne
- Start date
MindCrime
Footballguy
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-change-your-life.htmlAnyone have the full link? I typically don't click on the url shorteners.
(Or just paste the article in the thread.)
Rove!
Footballguy
seems to be missing some rabbit holes...one big one is how do you account for carbon emissions generated by creating the electricity used for electric cars? We use a lot of coal to generate electricity in the US which has a high rate of carbon emission....
SeveredHorseHeads
Footballguy
He talked about that extensively.
Rove!
Footballguy
I see he got to that at the end...he didn't talk about where it fit logically in his "cost" equations...
one key component in his argument is that the natural gas boom has reduced carbon emissions from electrcity and that nuclear will also help that equation....However, if governments seek to limit fracking due to earthquake/groundwater fears, then EV become less green....
Mr. Ected
Footballguy
Haven't finished the article, but I remember something about the company installing a large amount of solar panels at their facility in Nevada.
Van Dyman
Footballguy
Less green than what...
As far as fracking goes, you're speculating that there might eventually be a decrease in natural gas production due to fracking problems, then building on that with the assumption that the missing energy would definitely be replaced by a return to coal. Sounds like assumptions and fear-mongering there.
What a terrific article, and well written for the less than tech-savvy reader. I've always thought that electric cars would eventually be the norm, but after reading that it seems that they may be closer to breaking through than I previously assumed. If they can made a 300-400 mile range electric car affordable with acceleration/speed matching what I get now, I'd be all in. It sounds like Tesla is already there except for the price part.
Rove!
Footballguy
assuming coal has 150% of the carbon emissions that gas does, then a 30 MPH EV car would emit as much carbon as a 20 MPH gas car....
Just pointing out that in an EV world, clean energies like Nuclear and natural gas become even more important.
Wind and solar(on a mass scale) have their own environmental issues....
solar has been in development for at least 40 years, but it looks like this is getting viable on a micro level...in the southwestern US, we should aim to make self-sustaining buildings a goal...
an idea in wind that I saw is that instead of wind mills (which are horrible), have some king of stick or something and using the vibration energy...That might make it more palatable
I don't think anybody disagrees that EV are the future, and it's good that an entrepreneur is taking actions to get us to the goal for all of the advantages stated.
Righetti
Footballguy
Righetti
Footballguy
But part of what he is saying is that
- not all states get their majority of electricity from coal, in those states (NY for example) the difference is huge
-Even in states where coal is the primary source of electricity (colorado) it is about even because although coal emits more CO2, it gets to the joules more efficiently in a power plant than a car ETA the joules from gasoline in a car.
IIRC the power plant captures ~60% i joules while a car only captures 25% of joules
So although coal is less effective at creating joules from a CO2 perspective, by having it done at a power plant vs a car e fine it does so much more efficiently (in terms of co2 emission)
The other part is that the big idea behind the teslas are that they are being powered purely by solar. Those Tesla power-up stations you start to see now are all powered by solar panels.
Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
Wasn't there some talk a while back about how just making the batteries for the electric cars does a huge amount of damage to the environment. I remember reading about poison lakes in China
Rove!
Footballguy
it's a step forward, but the next challenge is weaning off of coal
wrt the power stations, is musk buying the land or is the government giving it? Also, who is maintaining these power stations....
since it will take a half hour or so to recharge, one idea is that you could have a combo restaurant/coffee shop/recharging station...
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
Nice article and looks like an interesting site to keep on my radar.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
The toughest thing is getting dealership permits in state.
Van Dyman
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Part One is one of the best things I've ever read, on any subject.
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Van Dyman
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I really enjoy reading Wait But Why. Highly entertaining and very informative.
Some random data:
Most BEVs have an MPG rating of 93-101; the LEAF highway rating is 126. I think the equivalency assumption is something like 33.6 kwH per gallon of gas. The Tesla Model S MPG ratings are 97/93, though I personally know people getting 105-110.
If you charge exclusively at home - which is how most owners charge their Tesla - it'll add about $40-50 per month to your electric bill.
Tesla owns the Supercharger network. Location amenities vary. Many are near shopping malls and various chain restaurants near the expressway, others are isolated on service roads with little else around. The Supercharger at JFK, for example, must have been intended only for TLC/Über drivers.
I have been considering getting a CPO Model S, but the challenge of how to charge it has caused me to pause. I have charging in my building garage - several Level 2 chargers, one high power CHAdeMO - but currently no Tesla HPWC (high powered wall charger.) It's an independent garage; I wrote to the owner and requested he consider installing one. Several Model S owners have been able to convince their garage owner to do so - it's a almost a necessity for them as NYC passed a law earlier this year requiring 20% of garage parking spaces be available for EVs. If I don't succeed in getting a charger installed, my options would be to pay $0.49 per kwH at public charging, driving to a SC (Syosset, JFK, Edison or Westchester), or visiting a free public Level 2 charger - the closest would be Gowanus Whole Foods or Walgreens in Park Slope. None of these are attractive as a midtown Manhattan resident, and since it's a critical piece in the whole decision process, I need to determine if I can really make this work as an urban dweller. I may opt for the BMW i3 instead as it suits my current needs better, but I'm pretty enamored with the MS. It's a phenomenal car on so many levels besides performance - safest car ever, lowest coefficient of drag, it gets better all the time because of over the air updates, et al.
Not all Superchargers have solar panels, but in addition to continue the rapid buildout, they are going back to existing locations and adding additional stalls and retro fitting with solar.
Most owners tend to use the Supercharger network only on road trips, which for the vast majority is 5 days or less per year. Supercharger rates used to be 120 kW but increased to 170 kW. If you hopping from one SC to the next, you never need to range charge (fully charge). The rate of charge is very fast when your battery pack is low, but tapers off dramatically above 90% - at that point the charging is really just rebalancing the 7000 batteries and it takes a long time to charge the last 10%. Supercharging is free for life to Model S owners. SC is not compatible with other cars or the Tesla Roadster, but Musk has said he would partner with anyone who wanted to build a compatible car. The Tesla patents are open source - they'll share with any other manufacturer. I believe a couple of the manufacturers decided to use the Tesla powertrain rather than waste R&D capital on developing their own.
There is currently a battery swap program being tested on the Model S. It's by invitation only and the speculation is the owners participating have signed an NDA, so not much is known at this point, but this could actually be an alternative to SCing. The claim is it would take about 3 minutes to swap batteries "at a cost equivalent to a full tank of gas", whatever that means.
Panasonic makes all the batteries for Tesla ATM, and I'm pretty sure Panasonic Energy will have a facility inside the Gigafactory. Each battery pack has about 110 pounds of graphite - i think that has been the main source of environmental issues in China. They recently closed six graphite mines; I read somewhere there are currently around 55 active graphite mines.
The Gigafactory, when complete, will double the lithium battery output worldwide. The battery pack is the chief reason the Model S base model starts at $75K before options, and they'll need to achieve 30-40% savings from manufacturing their own batteries in order for the Model 3 due out in 2017 to be priced at $35K before incentives.
The Model X (Tesla SUV due out this fall) is on the same platform as the Model S, and will be priced in a similar range. I'm not excited about it at all - I think the gull wing doors are a gimmick, not practical and overly complex, and I'm not sure we really want high center of gravity vehicles to be capable of doing 0-60 in 3-4 seconds.
But the affordable Model 3 - that could be a game changer. Elon has always preached to his team "We are not building toys for the rich." The Roadster showed what could be done. The Model S was their first design from the ground up, and it has shown you can build an BEV with sufficient range, it looks sexy, its fun to drive, it's as safe as a tank. But it's out of reach for too many. The other automakers don't have to respond to the MS - it's in a small segment with high end vehicles. But if they can build an affordable car that is aimed at lower middle to middle class buyers, and doesn't come with the inherent range anxiety of every other affordable BEV, that will compel the other major manufacturers to respond in kind.
Tesla is never going to have significant overall marketshare IMO. But the real goal for Musk is to be a disruptor and cause change for good.
The battery EV, as many others have pointed out upthread, is an important step to wean us off ICE vehicles. But the sustainable fuel vehicle has to go hand in hand with developing alternative power generation. Each of the solutions (Ocean, Solar, Wind) has limitations. But Germany now has a grid that is 30% sustainable, so I am optimistic we can achieve this.
Some random data:
Most BEVs have an MPG rating of 93-101; the LEAF highway rating is 126. I think the equivalency assumption is something like 33.6 kwH per gallon of gas. The Tesla Model S MPG ratings are 97/93, though I personally know people getting 105-110.
If you charge exclusively at home - which is how most owners charge their Tesla - it'll add about $40-50 per month to your electric bill.
Tesla owns the Supercharger network. Location amenities vary. Many are near shopping malls and various chain restaurants near the expressway, others are isolated on service roads with little else around. The Supercharger at JFK, for example, must have been intended only for TLC/Über drivers.
I have been considering getting a CPO Model S, but the challenge of how to charge it has caused me to pause. I have charging in my building garage - several Level 2 chargers, one high power CHAdeMO - but currently no Tesla HPWC (high powered wall charger.) It's an independent garage; I wrote to the owner and requested he consider installing one. Several Model S owners have been able to convince their garage owner to do so - it's a almost a necessity for them as NYC passed a law earlier this year requiring 20% of garage parking spaces be available for EVs. If I don't succeed in getting a charger installed, my options would be to pay $0.49 per kwH at public charging, driving to a SC (Syosset, JFK, Edison or Westchester), or visiting a free public Level 2 charger - the closest would be Gowanus Whole Foods or Walgreens in Park Slope. None of these are attractive as a midtown Manhattan resident, and since it's a critical piece in the whole decision process, I need to determine if I can really make this work as an urban dweller. I may opt for the BMW i3 instead as it suits my current needs better, but I'm pretty enamored with the MS. It's a phenomenal car on so many levels besides performance - safest car ever, lowest coefficient of drag, it gets better all the time because of over the air updates, et al.
Not all Superchargers have solar panels, but in addition to continue the rapid buildout, they are going back to existing locations and adding additional stalls and retro fitting with solar.
Most owners tend to use the Supercharger network only on road trips, which for the vast majority is 5 days or less per year. Supercharger rates used to be 120 kW but increased to 170 kW. If you hopping from one SC to the next, you never need to range charge (fully charge). The rate of charge is very fast when your battery pack is low, but tapers off dramatically above 90% - at that point the charging is really just rebalancing the 7000 batteries and it takes a long time to charge the last 10%. Supercharging is free for life to Model S owners. SC is not compatible with other cars or the Tesla Roadster, but Musk has said he would partner with anyone who wanted to build a compatible car. The Tesla patents are open source - they'll share with any other manufacturer. I believe a couple of the manufacturers decided to use the Tesla powertrain rather than waste R&D capital on developing their own.
There is currently a battery swap program being tested on the Model S. It's by invitation only and the speculation is the owners participating have signed an NDA, so not much is known at this point, but this could actually be an alternative to SCing. The claim is it would take about 3 minutes to swap batteries "at a cost equivalent to a full tank of gas", whatever that means.
Panasonic makes all the batteries for Tesla ATM, and I'm pretty sure Panasonic Energy will have a facility inside the Gigafactory. Each battery pack has about 110 pounds of graphite - i think that has been the main source of environmental issues in China. They recently closed six graphite mines; I read somewhere there are currently around 55 active graphite mines.
The Gigafactory, when complete, will double the lithium battery output worldwide. The battery pack is the chief reason the Model S base model starts at $75K before options, and they'll need to achieve 30-40% savings from manufacturing their own batteries in order for the Model 3 due out in 2017 to be priced at $35K before incentives.
The Model X (Tesla SUV due out this fall) is on the same platform as the Model S, and will be priced in a similar range. I'm not excited about it at all - I think the gull wing doors are a gimmick, not practical and overly complex, and I'm not sure we really want high center of gravity vehicles to be capable of doing 0-60 in 3-4 seconds.
But the affordable Model 3 - that could be a game changer. Elon has always preached to his team "We are not building toys for the rich." The Roadster showed what could be done. The Model S was their first design from the ground up, and it has shown you can build an BEV with sufficient range, it looks sexy, its fun to drive, it's as safe as a tank. But it's out of reach for too many. The other automakers don't have to respond to the MS - it's in a small segment with high end vehicles. But if they can build an affordable car that is aimed at lower middle to middle class buyers, and doesn't come with the inherent range anxiety of every other affordable BEV, that will compel the other major manufacturers to respond in kind.
Tesla is never going to have significant overall marketshare IMO. But the real goal for Musk is to be a disruptor and cause change for good.
The battery EV, as many others have pointed out upthread, is an important step to wean us off ICE vehicles. But the sustainable fuel vehicle has to go hand in hand with developing alternative power generation. Each of the solutions (Ocean, Solar, Wind) has limitations. But Germany now has a grid that is 30% sustainable, so I am optimistic we can achieve this.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
One of the cool things about Wait But Why is the hyperlinked footnotes give more in depth explanations.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Righetti
Footballguy
one of the best sites on the interwebs.. he does a great job explaining complex things in layman terms
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
ETA: that's one of the best articles, on any subject, I've ever read. That dude needs to have a wider audience.
Van Dyman
Footballguy
Tesla doesn't want or need dealerships, which is what existing dealers fear.
Tesla pointed out the obvious in A Raw Deal in Michigan.
Michigan's legislature and governor expanded regulations to prevent free market outcomes, imo.
Here's a broader multi-state overview by the University of Cincinnati Law Review on various legislation and court cases pertaining to Tesla's sales model. I've only skimmed this one so please pardon me if it's crap.
ETA: fixed link above.
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Joe T
Footballguy
The article was a good read, but a tad long. Maybe 20,000 words too long. But still worth skimming.
The guy is also a tad biased.
Joe T
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I don't know.
All the BEVs currently available use lithium ion battery packs: Focus, i3, LEAF, Model S, Volt, et al. The hydrogen fuel cell cars being developed by Honda, Hyundi and Toyota have same output objective: to produce electrical current which drives a instantaneous torque electrical motor.
Now besides BEVs, lithium ion batteries have a wide variety of usage in everyday products. Why is there no fuel cell equivalent to power laptops, phones, etc?
Loan Sharks
Not a Wolf
Yeah no kidding. I was seriously looking at the 2016 Volt as their range is purported to be 60-80miles which is good enough for a local car. I had no idea the teslas had so much more range per charge.wdcrob said:
I may put off my car purchase a year and wait for the Tesla 3 solely on this article.
Loan Sharks
Not a Wolf
I agree he is a little star struck and biased, that doesn't make him wrong. I am pretty sure he is right.Joe T said:
The only thing keeping me from getting a EV for a while has been price and size. The thing that had been sticking in my head is for all of the issues, I can't imagine how much more time and therefore much of my life I would have if I could go to work and drive home and plug my car in. How much of you life do you spend at a gas station? Days weeks years? I don't know.
Right now I am in the let the wife have a gas car and a electric car for the commute is the best formula.
I could give two ####s about the environment and saving humanity, all I care about is my time and money. EVs are to the point where they are increasingly the right call. Not just the gas but the maintenence as well.
Loan Sharks
Not a Wolf
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
A couple of resources for anyone who wants to research BEVs & especially Tesla:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/forum.php
(separate forums for EVs, Roadster, Model S, Model X & Model 3 - and tons more subforums. Great online community)
http://my.teslamotors.com/forums
(Part of the corporate site, not as active or varied)
Two long running blogs about Roadster/Model S ownership from test drive through today:
http://teslaliving.net/
https://teslaowner.wordpress.com/
CPO website & a community run consolidator of all the local market CPO listings:
http://www.teslamotors.com/models/preowned
http://logmysc.com/cpo-reports.php
There are several YouTube channels which are very informative:
Björn Nyland - Thai Norwegian programmer who has been driving a Model S P85 around for two years, often above the Artic Circle. Great cinematography for an amateur, his road trip videos are awesome.
KManAuto - guy has about 800 vids on YouTube, most are short covering every conceivable Model S topic. Early adopter, he clearly stretched to get into a bare bones MS 60 kW (smaller battery, discontinued), very informative.
Mike Anthony Autosports - gear head & Tesla fanboy, he has done four interview videos with owners which are insightful:
http://youtu.be/zqZwmgvPmxk
http://youtu.be/0BtBE2qQxDY
http://youtu.be/7ck6Pf73b0k
http://youtu.be/4NHIW8_6pbY
Finally, a book and a podcast by Florida Model S early adopter Nick Howe:
"Owning Model S" (softcover or eBook)
"News from the Frunk" (iTunes)
I've been researching the Model S for a couple months, and probably will need a couple more months before I'm ready to pull the trigger. It's a huge paradigm shift to move away from ICE vehicles.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/forum.php
(separate forums for EVs, Roadster, Model S, Model X & Model 3 - and tons more subforums. Great online community)
http://my.teslamotors.com/forums
(Part of the corporate site, not as active or varied)
Two long running blogs about Roadster/Model S ownership from test drive through today:
http://teslaliving.net/
https://teslaowner.wordpress.com/
CPO website & a community run consolidator of all the local market CPO listings:
http://www.teslamotors.com/models/preowned
http://logmysc.com/cpo-reports.php
There are several YouTube channels which are very informative:
Björn Nyland - Thai Norwegian programmer who has been driving a Model S P85 around for two years, often above the Artic Circle. Great cinematography for an amateur, his road trip videos are awesome.
KManAuto - guy has about 800 vids on YouTube, most are short covering every conceivable Model S topic. Early adopter, he clearly stretched to get into a bare bones MS 60 kW (smaller battery, discontinued), very informative.
Mike Anthony Autosports - gear head & Tesla fanboy, he has done four interview videos with owners which are insightful:
http://youtu.be/zqZwmgvPmxk
http://youtu.be/0BtBE2qQxDY
http://youtu.be/7ck6Pf73b0k
http://youtu.be/4NHIW8_6pbY
Finally, a book and a podcast by Florida Model S early adopter Nick Howe:
"Owning Model S" (softcover or eBook)
"News from the Frunk" (iTunes)
I've been researching the Model S for a couple months, and probably will need a couple more months before I'm ready to pull the trigger. It's a huge paradigm shift to move away from ICE vehicles.
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cstu
Footballguy
It's newer technology than lithium ion but most importantly the materials have been more expensive - previously they needed platinum. That is changing as nano materials, like graphene, are being developed as alternatives to costly platinum.
My biggest frustration with regard to alternative energy is that 'fanboys' of their favorite technology can't see the value of other technologies. There's room in the market for both EV's and fuel cell cars.
Regarding the question of battery size and range, this chart shows the limitations of lithium ion batteries.
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
If (when) electric really takes off I'll be curious to see how the federal/state governments recover the tax revenue lost from gasoline taxes
Van Dyman
Footballguy
Bolt should have good range, too. To me, it looks like it's the answer to my question "where did GM send the old Pontiac designers?"
Righetti
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
The chart comes from this article if anyone wants the context.
http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/fuel_cell_vehicles
I'm not sure that chart is accurate. The data is 5-6 years old but it doesn't seem to correlate to the 2012 LEAF (24 kW) or 2013 Model S (then 60 kW & 85 kW, now 70 & 85) battery packs that arrived 1-3 years later.
But is the size of lithium ion battery pack a constraint? The 85 kW MS has a range of 265-70 miles right now. Today the lithium ion is commercial feasible, but in 5-10 years there may be a better alternative - at least a half dozen lithium variants are in development stage.
The hydrogen fuel cell doesn't seem cost efficient enough to be competitive, but this strikes me as a "the marketplace will decide" kind of thing.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
One these lithium batteries will emerge as a leading technology and we'll have 100-125 kW battery packs with 400-500 mile ranges within the next decade. There's no reason to suggest Tesla will be alone: BMW, GM, Mitsubishi, Nissan and VW are all well in their way to producing BEV daily drivers. I think this is going to be a golden age for automobiles.
The P85D is straight up insane, nobody needs that much performance (& it gets old blowing $2K on rubber - that thing eats tires for breakfast.) But I've seen a LEAF I blow away a BMW 5 series off the line. Granted it's not much of a race after 0-20, but instantaneous torque makes driving a helluva lot of fun. When the masses have a fun BEV that is practical and affordable, look out. Change happens fast.
The P85D is straight up insane, nobody needs that much performance (& it gets old blowing $2K on rubber - that thing eats tires for breakfast.) But I've seen a LEAF I blow away a BMW 5 series off the line. Granted it's not much of a race after 0-20, but instantaneous torque makes driving a helluva lot of fun. When the masses have a fun BEV that is practical and affordable, look out. Change happens fast.
cstu
Footballguy
The marketplace won't decide because people won't buy fuel cell cars until the infrastructure is built and costs come down through economies of scales.
Until the infrastructure is built there will not be economies of scale to bring the prices down.
The good news is that California is ahead of the rest of the country:
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
bump
Forgot I posted this 8 years ago.
This was a super pro-Musk article but the underlying data and overarching theme was spot on.
Came out full two years before the Model 3 was launched (and before it was widely realized Elon = evil freak.)
Forgot I posted this 8 years ago.
This was a super pro-Musk article but the underlying data and overarching theme was spot on.
Came out full two years before the Model 3 was launched (and before it was widely realized Elon = evil freak.)
