the trouble with Cutler (1 Viewer)

[Garts]

keeper league:

Just traded Carson Palmer straight up and got Cutler.

The guy never hesitated.

I think this is more of me getting a future STUD for a good QB with the name.

 

[chris1969]

I've got Romo, Cutler, and picked up Cassel before anybody else got hold of him. Good thing I did because, Burleson went down for me right after that and my 3 WR's right now are Chambers, Mason, and Seneca Wallace. RB's are Bush, Graham, Portis, Forte, and Perry. I'm letting everyone in the league know that I will trade any of the 3 QB's and looking for multiple player deals that upgrade WR and/or RB. I'm really looking for a stud WR , but If I get that Stud RB I'll package a trade to upgrade WR.

The point is it's always better to offer a guy the choice at the position, as long as he knows you want more for the #1 guy than the #2 guy ect...

You'll be surprised every now and then for that offer for your #2 guy that somebody else thinks is your #1.

You might be better off trying to trade Romo, as he will bring back more in a trade, and Cutler could put up similar numbers. Maybe go after the Brady owner, he might be more desperate at QB than you are at WR.

It all depends on the offer. As long as the other guy knows he can get Romo if he wants he'll make the best offer he can. The trick is to hype the #2 guy! Then when he makes the offer for Romo, I can say I need a little more, or I can give you Cutler for that. If the guy thinks Cutler will be as good as I do, he'll take it.

 

[Billy Bats]

In smaller leagues, most people drafted Cutler as a backup to a "TOP" quarterback. With fantasy owners clamoring for Cutler, what would you think is a fair value for him? I think he can be a top 5 QB by seasons end but also assume that my other QB will finish around the same spot where Cutler lands. what is reasonable for cutler? is anyone else facing this situation? sure you could lose QB depth by dealing him but you should be able to get a nice upgrade at a weaker position.here are some at each position that i think are comparable:RB: Forte, Turner, Grant (basically a 10-15ish RB)WRs: Burress, TJ Housh, (basically a second tier wide reciever)TEs: Wittenam i over or under estimating his value>?

Not a bad list, but I don't think we could get Plax or Witten for Cutler, not yet anyway. As a Cutler owner I'm going to wait and see how he goes, if he starts putting up 300/3 consistantly, then his value will be even higher.

The trouble with Cutler, in my opinion, is that he has the same bye week as Rodgers.

I don't see that being a big deal, especially since I drafted both and punted week 8. If anything, it will give me a break in deciding which one to start each week. (if I don't trade one)

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Brady victim here...the guy who owns Cutler also has and prefers to start McNabb.

I offered him Bowe. His current WR3 is A Gonzalez, M Clayton or M Muhammed. Nothing better on the wire. He turned me down.

I would turn you down cold for that, too. Cutler is worth much more than Bowe, and one week is too early to start getting desperate and accepting below market value.

His WR1 is Calvin Johnson. His WR2 is Berrian. We start 3 WRs. He had an opportunity for a huge upgrade at WR3 and arguably an upgrade at WR2 (have you seen Tavaris Jackson play?).I acquired an alternative top 10 QB in an equitable trade.

Now Cutler can rot on his bench, until later in the season when his weak WR situation manifests in a Cutler or MCNabb fire sale. The trade market is finite, and when owners try to strongarm someone trying to workthrough an injury situation, they end up paying for it later, provided that the original solicitor is unwilling to grab his ankles.

He will be able to get more for Cutler than Bowe in a week or two. Bowe is no prize in redrafts this year. It would take at least a Holmes/Jennings type WR for me to deal Cutler.

How can you possibly know this? Are you in the same league? It's quite possible to screw yourself over by over-valuing a player on your bench. This is basic economics, you do not determine the market value of the player, the market does. He is worth no more that what someone is willing to pay for him, and if you think otherwise you're delusional. He could break his arm next week and you're screwed. Also, the earlier you trade him the more value you get from the player(s) you get in return.

And Brees could break his arm next week, and you still have a top QB, instead of an average WR. I may not determine the market value, but i determine a players value. On top of that, why would i want to make an opponents team better if i gain very little in return.The OP mentions Berrian as the guys #2 WR, and that Bowe is an upgrade. He argues this on Tavaris Jackson being a bad QB, but gets bent out of shape when he wouldnt accept Bowe for a top 5 QB. Who is Bowes QB again?

Your post makes no sense, get rid of a top backup QB for the best offer you can get after week 1?

Allow me to make a better case for what I'm saying than bad-mouthing T Jackson, which I freely admit is not really a sound case.I'm going to quote a limited amount of subscription info, which I will round off for simplicity and to honor the spirit of confidentiality of subscription info.

The basic premise: Bowe for Cutler is an equitable trade for the following particulars

4pt passing TD nonPPR league with 12 teams, 16 man rosters, start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1PK/1TeamD

Team 1

trades Bowe, his current WR2. WR3 is K Walter. WR4 is S Rice.

prior to trade, QB1 is Edwards (due to Brady injury). No better options the Edwards on waivers.

Team 2

has Cutler and McNabb. trades Cutler; intends to roll with McNabb

WR2 is Berrian, WR3 is A Gonzo, M Clayton, or Muhammed

SSOG and Burning Sensai make the same argument, paraphrasing, Cutler is worth more than Bowe and eventually a patient owner will be able to get more value. I'm not sure when that time is, but apparently its some point in the future. Lets examine what happens to each team to determine "value".

The numerical values I will be using are basically the value numbers from FBG's Trade Dominator tool, rounded. That's of course not the point as synthetic value parameters can be calculated, and we don't need to argue the minutia of projections and value calculations here.

Team 1 gets a "huge gain" by being able to start Cutler instead of Edwards ~500 points of value

However, Team 1 is also forced, at least based on current roster, to start Rice instead of Bowe, who is gone now ~350 points of lost value

Net change to Team 1 ~150 value point increase

Team 1 has no change at QB1, since the QB1 position is unaffected by the trade of QB2.

Team 1 gains significantly by starting Bowe and Berrian instead of Berrian and A Gonzo ~400 points of value

On the surface, unless Team 1 is able to make separate improvements to WR3, Team 2 is the big winner here.

Without arguing economic theory, I hope it is obvious that Team 2 is taking a large risk by not capitalizing on the opportunity. Team 2 should think of itself as a bank which is being given the opportunity for financial services. Saying to the customer I'm not going to give you that 6% loan because I think that the market will give me a 9% loan next month is myopic. You take OBVIOUS gains when someone is willing to give them to you.

 

[SSOG]

Brady victim here...the guy who owns Cutler also has and prefers to start McNabb.

I offered him Bowe. His current WR3 is A Gonzalez, M Clayton or M Muhammed. Nothing better on the wire. He turned me down.

I would turn you down cold for that, too. Cutler is worth much more than Bowe, and one week is too early to start getting desperate and accepting below market value.

His WR1 is Calvin Johnson. His WR2 is Berrian. We start 3 WRs. He had an opportunity for a huge upgrade at WR3 and arguably an upgrade at WR2 (have you seen Tavaris Jackson play?).I acquired an alternative top 10 QB in an equitable trade.

Now Cutler can rot on his bench, until later in the season when his weak WR situation manifests in a Cutler or MCNabb fire sale. The trade market is finite, and when owners try to strongarm someone trying to workthrough an injury situation, they end up paying for it later, provided that the original solicitor is unwilling to grab his ankles.

Who is trying to strongarm whom here? You're the guy who is trying to exploit the other guy's weakness in order to pressure him to take lesser value for Cutler, and now you're whining that he's demanding fair value in return for what is probably the best bargaining chip on his entire roster?I would gladly let a player rot on my bench rather than take significantly less than he was worth. I guarantee you that Young and Brady aren't going to be the only QBs going down this year- last year, 64 different QBs took a snap. Soon enough, the other player will be in a position to exploit someone ELSE'S weaknesses in the same way you just tried to exploit his.

Without arguing economic theory, I hope it is obvious that Team 2 is taking a large risk by not capitalizing on the opportunity. Team 2 should think of itself as a bank which is being given the opportunity for financial services. Saying to the customer I'm not going to give you that 6% loan because I think that the market will give me a 9% loan next month is myopic. You take OBVIOUS gains when someone is willing to give them to you.

That's a good way to improve your team incrementally, and a good way to ensure you're always in the top half of the league, but a bad way to ensure you're #1. The team that wins the championship isn't usually the one that has four guys in the top 20 at every position... it's the guy that has one guy who posts a higher VBD than any five players on the other guy's team COMBINED. Fantasy football is a game of studs- no sane dynasty league owner would trade Peterson for Chris Perry, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Hines Ward, and Philip Rivers, would he?If you traded everyone as soon as their value went up slightly, then you'd never ever own a superstud. Tomlinson would have a solid rookie season, and you'd promptly trade him away. Eddie Royal blows up in his first game, and he's gone. Ben Roethlisberger has a couple of 3-TD games, and there he goes. Sometimes, the better play is to hold, especially when you believe that the value is still going up. After all, if you don't trust your own projections, what's the point of playing?

Question for you: your top 3 QBs are Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees. Your top TE is Marcus Pollard, and your RB2 is Selvin Young. Someone offers you Edgerrin James for Tony Romo. Another guy offers you Owen Daniels for Drew Brees. You consider Peyton Manning to be the QB1... so do you make those trades, since they both offer OBVIOUS gains to your starting lineup? Or do you hold fast, demand equitable value, and trust that the market will provide better returns down the road?

 

[Burning Sensation]

Brady victim here...the guy who owns Cutler also has and prefers to start McNabb.

I offered him Bowe. His current WR3 is A Gonzalez, M Clayton or M Muhammed. Nothing better on the wire. He turned me down.

I would turn you down cold for that, too. Cutler is worth much more than Bowe, and one week is too early to start getting desperate and accepting below market value.

His WR1 is Calvin Johnson. His WR2 is Berrian. We start 3 WRs. He had an opportunity for a huge upgrade at WR3 and arguably an upgrade at WR2 (have you seen Tavaris Jackson play?).I acquired an alternative top 10 QB in an equitable trade.

Now Cutler can rot on his bench, until later in the season when his weak WR situation manifests in a Cutler or MCNabb fire sale. The trade market is finite, and when owners try to strongarm someone trying to workthrough an injury situation, they end up paying for it later, provided that the original solicitor is unwilling to grab his ankles.

Who is trying to strongarm whom here? You're the guy who is trying to exploit the other guy's weakness in order to pressure him to take lesser value for Cutler, and now you're whining that he's demanding fair value in return for what is probably the best bargaining chip on his entire roster?I would gladly let a player rot on my bench rather than take significantly less than he was worth. I guarantee you that Young and Brady aren't going to be the only QBs going down this year- last year, 64 different QBs took a snap. Soon enough, the other player will be in a position to exploit someone ELSE'S weaknesses in the same way you just tried to exploit his.

Without arguing economic theory, I hope it is obvious that Team 2 is taking a large risk by not capitalizing on the opportunity. Team 2 should think of itself as a bank which is being given the opportunity for financial services. Saying to the customer I'm not going to give you that 6% loan because I think that the market will give me a 9% loan next month is myopic. You take OBVIOUS gains when someone is willing to give them to you.

That's a good way to improve your team incrementally, and a good way to ensure you're always in the top half of the league, but a bad way to ensure you're #1. The team that wins the championship isn't usually the one that has four guys in the top 20 at every position... it's the guy that has one guy who posts a higher VBD than any five players on the other guy's team COMBINED. Fantasy football is a game of studs- no sane dynasty league owner would trade Peterson for Chris Perry, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Hines Ward, and Philip Rivers, would he?If you traded everyone as soon as their value went up slightly, then you'd never ever own a superstud. Tomlinson would have a solid rookie season, and you'd promptly trade him away. Eddie Royal blows up in his first game, and he's gone. Ben Roethlisberger has a couple of 3-TD games, and there he goes. Sometimes, the better play is to hold, especially when you believe that the value is still going up. After all, if you don't trust your own projections, what's the point of playing?

Question for you: your top 3 QBs are Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees. Your top TE is Marcus Pollard, and your RB2 is Selvin Young. Someone offers you Edgerrin James for Tony Romo. Another guy offers you Owen Daniels for Drew Brees. You consider Peyton Manning to be the QB1... so do you make those trades, since they both offer OBVIOUS gains to your starting lineup? Or do you hold fast, demand equitable value, and trust that the market will provide better returns down the road?

This is some good posting!!!!

 

[GooseNeck]

I just gave up Cutler/Lewis/Fitz for Palmer/Steven Jackson/Housh in a 10 team re-draft PPR.

My team after:

Warner/Palmer-Start 1

Addai/Jackson/DWilliams/McFadden-start 2

Marshall/Housh/Driver/Holt/Ginn-start 3

I wanted another top RB and felt using matchups with Kurt/Carson will equal out what Cutler will do....I know Cincy/StL are bad after week one but as the season goes their schedules soften and the players(Palmer/Housh/Jackson) have a history of doing good things. I do think Cutler can be good this year but I felt I needed to move now while Jackson's value is low.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Brady victim here...the guy who owns Cutler also has and prefers to start McNabb.

I offered him Bowe. His current WR3 is A Gonzalez, M Clayton or M Muhammed. Nothing better on the wire. He turned me down.

I would turn you down cold for that, too. Cutler is worth much more than Bowe, and one week is too early to start getting desperate and accepting below market value.

His WR1 is Calvin Johnson. His WR2 is Berrian. We start 3 WRs. He had an opportunity for a huge upgrade at WR3 and arguably an upgrade at WR2 (have you seen Tavaris Jackson play?).I acquired an alternative top 10 QB in an equitable trade.

Now Cutler can rot on his bench, until later in the season when his weak WR situation manifests in a Cutler or MCNabb fire sale. The trade market is finite, and when owners try to strongarm someone trying to workthrough an injury situation, they end up paying for it later, provided that the original solicitor is unwilling to grab his ankles.

Who is trying to strongarm whom here? You're the guy who is trying to exploit the other guy's weakness in order to pressure him to take lesser value for Cutler, and now you're whining that he's demanding fair value in return for what is probably the best bargaining chip on his entire roster?I would gladly let a player rot on my bench rather than take significantly less than he was worth. I guarantee you that Young and Brady aren't going to be the only QBs going down this year- last year, 64 different QBs took a snap. Soon enough, the other player will be in a position to exploit someone ELSE'S weaknesses in the same way you just tried to exploit his.

Without arguing economic theory, I hope it is obvious that Team 2 is taking a large risk by not capitalizing on the opportunity. Team 2 should think of itself as a bank which is being given the opportunity for financial services. Saying to the customer I'm not going to give you that 6% loan because I think that the market will give me a 9% loan next month is myopic. You take OBVIOUS gains when someone is willing to give them to you.

That's a good way to improve your team incrementally, and a good way to ensure you're always in the top half of the league, but a bad way to ensure you're #1. The team that wins the championship isn't usually the one that has four guys in the top 20 at every position... it's the guy that has one guy who posts a higher VBD than any five players on the other guy's team COMBINED. Fantasy football is a game of studs- no sane dynasty league owner would trade Peterson for Chris Perry, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Hines Ward, and Philip Rivers, would he?If you traded everyone as soon as their value went up slightly, then you'd never ever own a superstud. Tomlinson would have a solid rookie season, and you'd promptly trade him away. Eddie Royal blows up in his first game, and he's gone. Ben Roethlisberger has a couple of 3-TD games, and there he goes. Sometimes, the better play is to hold, especially when you believe that the value is still going up. After all, if you don't trust your own projections, what's the point of playing?

Question for you: your top 3 QBs are Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees. Your top TE is Marcus Pollard, and your RB2 is Selvin Young. Someone offers you Edgerrin James for Tony Romo. Another guy offers you Owen Daniels for Drew Brees. You consider Peyton Manning to be the QB1... so do you make those trades, since they both offer OBVIOUS gains to your starting lineup? Or do you hold fast, demand equitable value, and trust that the market will provide better returns down the road?

I would say that the value obtained by being able to start Bowe over A Gonzales or the other WR3s mentioned in my example is significantly larger than the value obtained by upgrading Pollard to Daniels or Young to Edgerrin. I would also think there are plenty of marginal TEs on the waiver wire significantly better than Pollard (who I believe was cut by the Patriots) so its a function of waiver versus Daniels. I would also say that Rodgers cannot be viewed in the same tier as Romo and Brees, but perhaps Cutler can. Having said that, I understand your point, but I think it comes down to my confidence in Bowe, my drafted WR2, more than anything else. I was surprised at the disdain both the Rodgers and the Cutler owner showed over the opportunity to replace their marginal WRs with Dwayne Bowe.

 

[xenon]

Dilmea:

and I suppose this can/should be posted on AC forum but here goes:

I own Romo and Cutler....I have opportunity to upgrade my team and my trading partner is open to either guy.....thus my quandry and going back and forth in my own head as to which QB will be more valuable for ME.

Looking ahead to the playoffs (wks 14/15/16):

Romo - @ PIT/NYG/BALT

Cutler- KC/@ CAR/BUF

(not sure I can guesstimate at this time which schedule is tougher)

Also starting to wonder (especially with Romo) if there is a chance that given actual NFL record/playoff situation that he could sit in wk 16?

 

[thenipper]

I would have a hard time trading Cutler. We need more details on a post. Who is your starting QB? What else do you have? Is this a redraft or keeper or dynasty league?

More than likely you keep Cutler for the whole season and trade the other QB.

 

[SCT]

FWIW:

I just gave up Schaub, Lynch, Holmes, and Selvin for Cutler, Marshall, and McGahee :yikes:

I just think that theres a good shot that Cutler and Marshall both end up at the top of their respective positions and are the kind of tandem that could carry a fantasy team.

My biggest issue was it's a keeper league and Lynch would be $$ for several years, but if things work out the way I think I'd keep Baby TO anyway.

 

[Garts]

FWIW:I just gave up Schaub, Lynch, Holmes, and Selvin for Cutler, Marshall, and McGahee :yikes:I just think that theres a good shot that Cutler and Marshall both end up at the top of their respective positions and are the kind of tandem that could carry a fantasy team.My biggest issue was it's a keeper league and Lynch would be $$ for several years, but if things work out the way I think I'd keep Baby TO anyway.

losing Lynch hurts....but the rest is OK

 

[SCT]

FWIW:I just gave up Schaub, Lynch, Holmes, and Selvin for Cutler, Marshall, and McGahee :yikes:I just think that theres a good shot that Cutler and Marshall both end up at the top of their respective positions and are the kind of tandem that could carry a fantasy team.My biggest issue was it's a keeper league and Lynch would be $$ for several years, but if things work out the way I think I'd keep Baby TO anyway.

losing Lynch hurts....but the rest is OK

Agreed, but if McGahee can just turn in an avg. peformance this year I think I made out big. Lynch is going to start losing touches to Jackson (I hope).I now have the current #1 QB, #1 RB, #3WR, and I think Marshall will end up top 3 WR as well.

 

[thatguy]

keeper league:Just traded Carson Palmer straight up and got Cutler.The guy never hesitated.I think this is more of me getting a future STUD for a good QB with the name.

Nice trade IMO. I tried to trade Carson for Cutler all offseason in my dynasty league but the owner wouldn't bite.

 

[xenon]

Dilmea:and I suppose this can/should be posted on AC forum but here goes:I own Romo and Cutler....I have opportunity to upgrade my team and my trading partner is open to either guy.....thus my quandry and going back and forth in my own head as to which QB will be more valuable for ME.Looking ahead to the playoffs (wks 14/15/16):Romo - @ PIT/NYG/BALTCutler- KC/@ CAR/BUF(not sure I can guesstimate at this time which schedule is tougher)Also starting to wonder (especially with Romo) if there is a chance that given actual NFL record/playoff situation that he could sit in wk 16?

I would have a hard time trading Cutler. We need more details on a post. Who is your starting QB? What else do you have? Is this a redraft or keeper or dynasty league?More than likely you keep Cutler for the whole season and trade the other QB.

I drafted Romo to be #1 but I feel like I have two #1's. League is re-draft. I would have same problem if it was dynasty too! I desperetely need help at RB for which I presently have:J LewisL WhiteJ. StewartRay Rice@ WR I am a better off:MossCotcheryColesWalterEngram (IR)