The Underachieving RB this season...let's examine (2 Viewers)

[Ministry of Pain]

I know may of you are frustrated with guys like LJ, Maroney, SJax...there are a bunch that I am sure many of you are bellyaching about. Now pay close attention or you will find yourself whining again next season...someone has to be at the top and someone has to be at the bottom. I know that sounds simplistic but the 2nd half of this and one of the reasons I don't do a lot of projections is because even wonderful sights like FBG for the most part have eerily similar stats to the ones the players ended the season before with.

I'm not talking about inking in LT for 2,000 yds and 20 TD...fine no problem. but how many mags and websites out there really had different projections from the stats the players had the season before? Take the 2006 LJordan vs 2005. In 2005 he caught about 70 balls IIRC...and with the new coaches and OC in 2006, most sites just loaded him up for the seaosn b4, in fact many even bumped them higher...and in the end he didn't come close. Now I mentioned in every SJax thread that he was being counted on in the passing game far too much...but you couldn't tell that to guys with the #2 pick this year could you? They see 90 catches and say well even if he is off 20-25%...try 50-60% possibly.

So the first thing I want you to do is to stop feeling sorry for yourself...OK I'll give you a couple of minutes to down that beer in your hand and then you gotta stop feeling sorry for yourself. You should know by this point that if you just pick the RB in order in the 1st round and just go based on your wild projections and trust that the players will repeat the same numbers...do yourself a favor and just surf the archives over at pro-football-reference.com...very few players ever post the same numbers year to year. So get over it!

Let's look at the potential 1st round busts and see what we got.

1.01 LT: He's fine, just facing stiff defenses so far, he wasn't on fire last season till about week 4 or 5 IIRC. I would say the Chargers' offense is not the same as last season and Rivers doesn't look as good, but I think things will change when they face some easier teams.

1.02 SJax: Is not going to hit his numbers of a year ago and it starts with that bogus 90+ receptions he had...give me a break! His TD might slide but he had a hunk of them in 1 game late in the season last year...he probably will still plunge in for 10 over the next 10 weeks...what were you expecting exactly? He had about 100 yds today which is disappointing as an owner...I am more concerned about his OL now. Only avg about 3 yds a clip on the ground.

1.03 LJ: He is in terrible shape for the next few weeks and then there will be some schedule relief. Keep him on your radar as a possible trade for. I anticipated he would have a rough start and in any league where I did get him, I opted to go pretty deep at RB and secured players like Rudi Johnson, ADP, LJordan, A.Green...not all of them on the same team but I made sure if I needed to bench him some weeks I could. No one on these boards were not forwarned about LJ.

1.04 Frank Gore: 3 TD so far this year. Yards are not raining down yet but owners cannot be disappointed with what they are seeing so far. Alex Smith has looked terrible and they are leaning on Gore big time.

1.05 J.Addai: Doing great.

1.06 B.Westbrook: So far so good...wait to see the game on MNF but he looks good.

1.07 Reggie Bush: Not looking good so far. The NO offense is not the same...I don't have a lot of hope to offer owners except that it couldn't get much worse than this could it? He is barely a flex start at this point.

1.08 FWP: Owners were all worried after week 1, he sure looked great today. I don't see Big Ben tossing 4 TD every other week so I think FWP is going to be a great candidate for 100 yds and possibly a TD almost every week. Solid play so far, certainly not losing games for you that I can see.

1.09 Laurence Maroney: People drafted too high. Morris is definitely in the mix and getting carries...stole a TD tonight and I don't think Maroney is going to consistently be putting up 100+ yds and a TD every week. Hopefully you got some depth at your draft and can not be forced to play him every week.

1.10 Rudi Johnson: His OL is definitely not as good at running the ball this year. he had an OK game today but this is a guy I might look at selling while the selling is good. They should have been able to run the ball more effectively today and limit Cleveland's chances o offense a bit. A lot of people are going to disagree with me but I think Rudi is a guy you can package and maybe move. He is really not an RB1 IMHO. If he is your RB2, then fine.

1.11 Travis Henry: Owners can't be too mad yet although I am sure some are griping that he isn't scoring enough TD for their liking...he will.

RB that are doing great for where they were drafted...

McGahee: Mid 2nd in a lot of redrafts, looks solid so far. Baltimore has to run the ball in order to win and their defense is too good.

Ahman Green: 4th round in most leagues...70 yds and a TD today, what else can you ask for from your RB2?

LaMont Jordan: 8th round...who thinks Rhodes is going to move this guy to the bench when he gets back? I don't.

RB that are not getting it done...

MJD: David Dodds nailed this one preseason. 160 carries last year, 12-13 TD...those numbers add up like Big Ben's 160/4TD a week ago...just isn't going to happen all the time.

Tatum Bell: He is setting the stage for Kevin Jones to take over when he arrives.

Julius Jones: 31 carries for less than 100 yds so far...where is the upside with him every week? I know he was a later round draftee for most.

Ronnie Brown: Anyone care to talk about him?

I'm sure there are others I am overlooking.

What backs do you think will turn it around?

 

[The Jerk]

MoP, as a Travis Henry owner, I'm interested as to what you expect his TD range to be? I'm nervous that he may need to get most of them from outside the 5, which makes it very unlikely he hits double digits.

 

[packersfan]

1.10 Rudi Johnson: His OL is definitely not as good at running the ball this year. he had an OK game today

He ran for over 100 yards, caught 4 passes and a TD and that's only an OK game? I'm biased as a Rudi owner but I've had zero problems with him. Week 1 was a brutal matchup but he still put up decent numbers (thanks to the 2-point conversion) and he had a strong game today. The positive as I pointed out in another thread is how much more involved in the passing game he is this season. In a PPR league he is providing more production than his past levels and there's no reason to think that's going to change for at least the first 8 games until Henry returns. As far as Parker, if people were concerned about him it makes me wonder what their expectations were. Two 100-yard games and a TD to open the season is a very nice start.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MoP, as a Travis Henry owner, I'm interested as to what you expect his TD range to be? I'm nervous that he may need to get most of them from outside the 5, which makes it very unlikely he hits double digits.

That's a good point. But he has 139, and 128 the last 2 weeks...I think I would be very excited about that. Denver has had their hands full with Buffalo and Oakland...let's break them down.Buffalo: Played well against Pitt on defense today in spurts. Big Ben did not manhandle them or anything. Was Denver's play that bad the week before? Maybe Henry should have scored against them.Oakland: They are not that bad of a defense but they had no answers for Detroit's 4 Horsemen...or maybe we should call them the 4 Flying Dutchmen or something...Minnesota gave up a lot of yds today too and they have a pretty good defense. SO the fact he didn't knock 2 scores in today might not be that big of a deal. I am really excited as an owner though that he is avg well over 100 yds on the ground each week. The TDs will come and I have a feeling he will get them in chunks.

 

[Krewe]

I agree on Rudi. He's fine, cant be upset with those numbers.

As for FWP...I have him , TiVo'd the game and he should have scored TWO times today...reaching for the goal line a play before they found the mystery tight end...so he's getting lots of yard, chances in the red zone, not as much on 3rd down packages but that's no shocker. I like it so far.

 

[schooner44]

MoP, as a Travis Henry owner, I'm interested as to what you expect his TD range to be? I'm nervous that he may need to get most of them from outside the 5, which makes it very unlikely he hits double digits.

Henry has never had break-away speed and that will limit his TDs. He is a very tough between-the-tackles runner who has the ability to cut and bounce it outside. He will get his 20-30 yard carries but never get long TD runs.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

SJax is the perfect example of why, when looking at a RBs stats from the year before, it helps to look at the week-by-week splits and not just the final season totals. I owned SJax last year (1.06) and while he certainly wasn't a bust by any stretch, his stat lines up until about the last 5 weeks of the seaon would drive you insane more often than not. Not a great goal line percentage, got stuffed quite a bit actually, usually came up juuuust short of 100 yards when you needed the extra points the milestone brings in some leagues.

He was playing absolutlely out of his mind in December, but prior to that, I can't think of a time last year when I could say, "Man, SJax carried my team to the victory today". All that said, I also would have taken him with the #2 pick this year...reluctantly, and by default...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

1.10 Rudi Johnson: His OL is definitely not as good at running the ball this year. he had an OK game today

He ran for over 100 yards, caught 4 passes and a TD and that's only an OK game? I'm biased as a Rudi owner but I've had zero problems with him. Week 1 was a brutal matchup but he still put up decent numbers (thanks to the 2-point conversion) and he had a strong game today. The positive as I pointed out in another thread is how much more involved in the passing game he is this season. In a PPR league he is providing more production than his past levels and there's no reason to think that's going to change for at least the first 8 games until Henry returns. As far as Parker, if people were concerned about him it makes me wonder what their expectations were. Two 100-yard games and a TD to open the season is a very nice start.

I own him too and for the longest time in that game I saw him with about 70 on the ground and the 1 catch for the TD...I see now he did rack up 150 yds, 4 catches, and the TD like you said...but that running game from what I have watched is just not what it was last season. Steinbach being gone IMO has a lot to do with why Rudi struggled at times and why Jamal Lewis was ripping a gash 3 miles wide into the Nati's defnse today. I think he still could be a sell high candidate. He won't catch a lot of balls when Henry gets back...keep him for now but I would not be against trading him for the right player in return...or if you are deep at WR and can package him up for something like Joseph Addai.

 

[packersfan]

1.10 Rudi Johnson: His OL is definitely not as good at running the ball this year. he had an OK game today

He ran for over 100 yards, caught 4 passes and a TD and that's only an OK game? I'm biased as a Rudi owner but I've had zero problems with him. Week 1 was a brutal matchup but he still put up decent numbers (thanks to the 2-point conversion) and he had a strong game today. The positive as I pointed out in another thread is how much more involved in the passing game he is this season. In a PPR league he is providing more production than his past levels and there's no reason to think that's going to change for at least the first 8 games until Henry returns. As far as Parker, if people were concerned about him it makes me wonder what their expectations were. Two 100-yard games and a TD to open the season is a very nice start.

I own him too and for the longest time in that game I saw him with about 70 on the ground and the 1 catch for the TD...I see now he did rack up 150 yds, 4 catches, and the TD like you said...but that running game from what I have watched is just not what it was last season. Steinbach being gone IMO has a lot to do with why Rudi struggled at times and why Jamal Lewis was ripping a gash 3 miles wide into the Nati's defnse today. I think he still could be a sell high candidate. He won't catch a lot of balls when Henry gets back...keep him for now but I would not be against trading him for the right player in return...or if you are deep at WR and can package him up for something like Joseph Addai.

It'll take a lot to get me to trade him. The guy is money in the bank every year for at least 1,300 yards and double-digit TDs. And given his increased role in the passing game there's more upside for him in PPR leagues than ever before. People always under-rate this guy but he just puts up good numbers year in and year out. I'll take that happily.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm tickled pink if I'm a Rudi owner.

Koetter and Del Rio are idiots...they had a great offense, not they have a subpar offense.

Time to buy low on LJ

 

[SproutDaddy]

Marion Barber has made me very happy so far. I don't care if he doesn't start. He comes in and gets it done in his role. I expect many to regret passing on Portis. I know we've only seen one game so far, but I expect him to outperform the like of LJ and Maroney.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

1.10 Rudi Johnson: His OL is definitely not as good at running the ball this year. he had an OK game today

He ran for over 100 yards, caught 4 passes and a TD and that's only an OK game? I'm biased as a Rudi owner but I've had zero problems with him. Week 1 was a brutal matchup but he still put up decent numbers (thanks to the 2-point conversion) and he had a strong game today. The positive as I pointed out in another thread is how much more involved in the passing game he is this season. In a PPR league he is providing more production than his past levels and there's no reason to think that's going to change for at least the first 8 games until Henry returns. As far as Parker, if people were concerned about him it makes me wonder what their expectations were. Two 100-yard games and a TD to open the season is a very nice start.

I own him too and for the longest time in that game I saw him with about 70 on the ground and the 1 catch for the TD...I see now he did rack up 150 yds, 4 catches, and the TD like you said...but that running game from what I have watched is just not what it was last season. Steinbach being gone IMO has a lot to do with why Rudi struggled at times and why Jamal Lewis was ripping a gash 3 miles wide into the Nati's defnse today. I think he still could be a sell high candidate. He won't catch a lot of balls when Henry gets back...keep him for now but I would not be against trading him for the right player in return...or if you are deep at WR and can package him up for something like Joseph Addai.

It'll take a lot to get me to trade him. The guy is money in the bank every year for at least 1,300 yards and double-digit TDs. And given his increased role in the passing game there's more upside for him in PPR leagues than ever before. People always under-rate this guy but he just puts up good numbers year in and year out. I'll take that happily.

That's been his ceiling and basement basically. But 1,300 yds and 12 TD is not RB1 stats my friend. I consider an RB1 to have the potential for 2,000 total yds and about 15+ TD...I know many of you will say "Well MOP, there aren't too many of those guys." And I will tell you that their aren't too many winners in your leagues either, in fact just one. Rudi is consistent but he doesn't win games on his own really. I think Addai offers a lot more upside and if you can package Rudi with a WR that is riding your bench but is outproducing a lot of other WR2/3 on other rosters...package and trade.

 

[The Jerk]

He was playing absolutlely out of his mind in December, but prior to that, I can't think of a time last year when I could say, "Man, SJax carried my team to the victory today". All that said, I also would have taken him with the #2 pick this year...reluctantly, and by default...

Exhibit 702 on why we (or at least I) should spend a whole lot less time worrying about the first few picks and a whole lot more trying to sort out value in the 3rd-5th round range.I don't have him on any roster as the highest slot I had in any league was #5. He'll get going here, but December 2006 now looks like the perfect storm of his career rather than the emergence of the next fantasy superstud.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm tickled pink if I'm a Rudi owner.

Koetter and Del Rio are idiots...they had a great offense, not they have a subpar offense.

Time to buy low on LJ

 

[Dt's Mules]

if you can make the playoffs with LJ you'll be rewarded with:

denver - hasn't slowed the running game so far

tenn - looked great at jags run, pretty good against colts

detroit - should be pretty good matchup

not to mentioned an easy schedule over the last half of the season to get you in the playoffs...in any league I don't own him, i'm trying my damnedest to get him.

 

[packersfan]

That's been his ceiling and basement basically. But 1,300 yds and 12 TD is not RB1 stats my friend.

The stats say otherwise. Here is where Rudi has ranked in standard scoring the past three seasons:2004: 8th2005: 7th2006: 9thThat's three straight Top 10 finishes and now he's being even more productive in PPR leagues. He has 7 receptions in the first two games after averaging less than 2 receptions per game each of the past three seasons. So if you're in a standard scoring league he's money for a Top 10 finish and if you're in a PPR league his production is at a career-best level. As a Rudi owner I'm loving what I'm seeing so far.

 

[Raider Nation]

One interesting trend I'm noticing as I watch all the games: LOTS of teams appear to be stacking the box this year. Many more than early last year. Seems like every game I turned my head to, there were 8 men up on the line of scrimmage in a run blitz. Very odd. Once the QBs start showing they can routinely deliver under fire, then defenses will play more straight up and the stud RBs will get theirs.

Still a bit too early to panic on the beasts. They were 1st-rounders for a reason.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

That's been his ceiling and basement basically. But 1,300 yds and 12 TD is not RB1 stats my friend.

The stats say otherwise. Here is where Rudi has ranked in standard scoring the past three seasons:2004: 8th2005: 7th2006: 9thThat's three straight Top 10 finishes and now he's being even more productive in PPR leagues. He has 7 receptions in the first two games after averaging less than 2 receptions per game each of the past three seasons. So if you're in a standard scoring league he's money for a Top 10 finish and if you're in a PPR league his production is at a career-best level. As a Rudi owner I'm loving what I'm seeing so far.

Yes, but you and I have a difference of what the mason dixon line is for RB1 numbers...I do something different. I take the total FF points for #1-#24, assuming most play in a 12 team start 2 format...I then divide by the number of players which is of course 24...then I get the baseline for which to base what an RB1 actually is. And that Mason-Dixon line over the last 5 seasons run eerily close to about 7/8...so Rudi is right on the bubble and that is why I say if he is your RB2, you are doing great...meaning you have one of the guys in the top7 already. But if Rudi is your #1 RB...there are 8-9 other teams in your league or the MAJORITY, that have you outkicked sort of speak on a weekly basis...think about it. Packerfan, you're a great poster and I am right with you on the receptions being a welcome surprise but I think of Rudi as a guy I would like to upgrade. The fact he is getting catches, and is doing well means he will be even more attractive to owners so why not cash in? My thoughts anyways but if you like Rudi, you got Rudi, you're a happy guy...cheers!

 

[Dt's Mules]

Minnesota's defense was terrific against the run last year, but it is handy for jones owners that tatum had to face them. I can only think that will help get kj more carries when he is back. That is, if tatum doesn't bounce back in the next few games.

One thing I noticed from the Min/Det games last year, even though KJ wasn't effective running the ball either, he was an effective receiver. I don't think that will be lost on Martz.

I'm a KJ buyer.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

One interesting trend I'm noticing as I watch all the games: LOTS of teams appear to be stacking the box this year. Many more than early last year. Seems like every game I turned my head to, there were 8 men up on the line of scrimmage in a run blitz. Very odd. Once the QBs start showing they can routinely deliver under fire, then defenses will play more straight up and the stud RBs will get theirs.

Still a bit too early to panic on the beasts. They were 1st-rounders for a reason.

So was Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili SMith, Jemarcus Russell...oops, sorry that was mean.

C'mon now, draft slot has nothing to do with it.

 

[Raider Nation]

One interesting trend I'm noticing as I watch all the games: LOTS of teams appear to be stacking the box this year. Many more than early last year. Seems like every game I turned my head to, there were 8 men up on the line of scrimmage in a run blitz. Very odd. Once the QBs start showing they can routinely deliver under fire, then defenses will play more straight up and the stud RBs will get theirs.

Still a bit too early to panic on the beasts. They were 1st-rounders for a reason.

So was Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili SMith, Jemarcus Russell...oops, sorry that was mean.

C'mon now, draft slot has nothing to do with it.

Fantasy 1st-rounders.

 

[oddball]

I'm pretty happy with S. Alexander so far, picking him at 1.06.

 

[Raider Nation]

One interesting trend I'm noticing as I watch all the games: LOTS of teams appear to be stacking the box this year. Many more than early last year. Seems like every game I turned my head to, there were 8 men up on the line of scrimmage in a run blitz. Very odd. Once the QBs start showing they can routinely deliver under fire, then defenses will play more straight up and the stud RBs will get theirs.

Still a bit too early to panic on the beasts. They were 1st-rounders for a reason.

So was Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili SMith, Jemarcus Russell...oops, sorry that was mean.

C'mon now, draft slot has nothing to do with it.

I think he's talking about fantasy 1st-rounders...

Of course I was. Unless Gore, Parker and Westbrook were taken in the 1st round of the NFL draft when I wasn't looking.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm pretty happy with S. Alexander so far, picking him at 1.06.

I sort of skipped over him...he has been alright so far.

 

[trader jake]

Ronnie Brown: Anyone care to talk about him?

I guess not.The Dolphins are a mess right now, that's all I got.

 

[Dt's Mules]

I'm pretty happy with S. Alexander so far, picking him at 1.06.

i am too, but i worry about his playoff schedule of:arizona - looked pretty good against the run in terms of ypccarolinabalt

 

[rascal]

I'm looking to buy LJ, but I'll wait another week. If you wait till after the charger game you probably won't get him because the owners will see that it's down hill from that point on.

 

[gman8343]

Strange year so far in that it feels like (to me at least) many RBs aren't being used the way they should be. Ronnie Brown comes to mind, as well as Deuce McCallister. These are two guys who you'd probably want to try and ram down people's throats, but Brown vanished for huge stretches of the game so Chatman could get in - a much lesser talent IMO.

Maroney is going to bounce back to a certain extent, though anyone who drafted him expecting 1400 yds and double digit TDs is going to be disappointed. He looked good tonight running the ball, but it seems clear that the Pats don't want to overwork him, which could mean less garbage time for him when they're ahead, and they'll be ahead alot.

LJ is a buy low IMO - guy is still getting into football shape, and no matter what Herm thinks, he's the only real offensive threat on the team other than Gonzales. His touches will increase, and Bennett's two fumbles today couldn't have endeared him to the coaching staff.

MJD was overvalued but I'm a bit shocked at how poor he's performed. No he probably wasn't going to approach last year's TD totals but he is a dynamic player and I thought the coaching staff would come up with some creative ways to get him the ball.

Funny but so far the guys who had the 4-7 picks are the ones reaping the rewards so far in that guys like Addai, Gore, Parker and Alexander are performing quite well while the "can't miss" studs in LT/SJ/LJ have struggled somewhat.

 

[Dt's Mules]

Ronnie Brown: Anyone care to talk about him?

I guess not.The Dolphins are a mess right now, that's all I got.

i'm a little disappointed b/c even though they were a mess last year as well, brown was able to put up borderline top 10 ppg.still getting acclimated to the new system?dallas was ripe to be run on today on the road and ferguson out.

 

[Raider Nation]

Ronnie Brown: Anyone care to talk about him?

I guess not.The Dolphins are a mess right now, that's all I got.

I agree with this guy.Man, if I owned Brown in any league (which fortunately I don't), I'd jump ship and get ANYTHING of value in return.

 

[Jayrod]

Ronnie Brown: Anyone care to talk about him?

I guess not.The Dolphins are a mess right now, that's all I got.

He outscored MJD in my dynasty league this week. I started them both I still won (thanks to the Palmer to CJ combo).

 

[Guapote]

Ronnie Brown owner here, and while I didn't expect a big year I did expect more than he's produced. I haven't been able to see either of the games. I see Chatman has a better YPC. Is this related to when he gets in the game, the play calling, or just the low sample size? Everyone seems to think Brown is the better back except for the coaching staff there, are we missing something or is the coaching staff that inept?

Also, what's the contract situation with Brown? I own him in a keep 12 format, and while I'd probably give him up for a bag of chips right now in redraft, I hope he has a chance to be productive down the road. Is he going to be in Miami long-term, or is there a chance he relocates in the next year or two?

 

[Lombaowski]

Minnesota's defense was terrific against the run last year, but it is handy for jones owners that tatum had to face them. I can only think that will help get kj more carries when he is back. That is, if tatum doesn't bounce back in the next few games.One thing I noticed from the Min/Det games last year, even though KJ wasn't effective running the ball either, he was an effective receiver. I don't think that will be lost on Martz.I'm a KJ buyer.

I traded D Ward and D Bowe for him in a 14 team keeper last week. I could use Ward at the moment in my flex but I figured ketting KJ for this year and next was a better value even though the questions about his health linger.

 

[delusional]

RBs down

WRs up

Thats how it is starting this year. Combined with more teams spliting carries to keep their main RB healthy, it spreads the points around alot ( maroney morris / betts portis for example )

It sucks too.

For instance one team in my league is 2-0 now.

His RBs?

LT Dunn KJ

His WRs though?

CJ & Hous ( yes he took both )

Between CJ, Hous & his QB ( Brady ), he has scored 95 and 117pts so far basically because of his WR play and not his RB play.

 

[zamboni]

RB that are doing great for where they were drafted...McGahee: Mid 2nd in a lot of redrafts, looks solid so far. Baltimore has to run the ball in order to win and their defense is too good.Ahman Green: 4th round in most leagues...70 yds and a TD today, what else can you ask for from your RB2?LaMont Jordan: 8th round...who thinks Rhodes is going to move this guy to the bench when he gets back? I don't.

Caddy should probably be mentioned here. Not a lot of yards so far, but the offense looks a lot better with Garcia, and Caddy gutted through the pain to still carry the ball 24 times. And he's getting those all-important goal line carries, with 2 short scores yesterday.

 

[otb_lifer]

Edge has been a very pleasant surprise as well. Drafted him in the third round in both of my big $ locals, and he's been equal to both of my #1 backs (FWP and Gore) thus far. Heck of a game yesterday, a shade under a buck fifty total yds. and a touch.

Barring injury, the guy is going to be getting a RB#1 workload , which is more than you can say for a handful or so who were drafted before him ...

 

[FavreCo]

Deuce owner here. As horrible a coach as Herminator is, I wish he was coaching in New Orleans. Deuce might get the ball the correct amount of times.....and they might have a defense that can stop the other team so Deuce can run the ball. What they are trying to do is obviously not working.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

MoP, as a Travis Henry owner, I'm interested as to what you expect his TD range to be? I'm nervous that he may need to get most of them from outside the 5, which makes it very unlikely he hits double digits.

Right now with him not getting carries on the goal line I figure he'll have about 1600 yards and 4 TD's. Try to trade him for Larry Johnson now if you can.

 

[hoyaparanoia]

Edge has been a very pleasant surprise as well. Drafted him in the third round in both of my big $ locals, and he's been equal to both of my #1 backs (FWP and Gore) thus far. Heck of a game yesterday, a shade under a buck fifty total yds. and a touch. Barring injury, the guy is going to be getting a RB#1 workload , which is more than you can say for a handful or so who were drafted before him ...

My sentiments exactly. He doesn't share much time and he looked great for where I drafted him. Jordan and Edge are carrying my RB corp this year. Just goes to show how important it is to draft by value, and have a well rounded team.

 

[Nemesis]

Carolina running game yesterday:

D. Williams 8 31 0

D. Foster 9 22 0

I didn't see the game, but I just looked at the play by play.

Delhomme threw 41 times and I know they were trying to play catch up in the 4th quarter and only ran the ball once in the 4th qtr .

Foster was in for the 1st and 2nd series, but it looks like DW was inserted in the 3rd series.

Any homer insight on this situation?

Is Houston's def that good vs the run?.......I know they contained LJ and the Chefs in wk 1.

(MOP.....that might be something you want to make note of for your wk 3 RB analysis)

 

[jon_mx]

Portis hasn't ran yet this week, but he is looking like the major steal RB of the draft going late 3rd or early 4th in most drafts. Randy Moss might be the overall steal of the draft.

 

[the_dude]

who would be the right person in return for Rudi ?

1.10 Rudi Johnson: His OL is definitely not as good at running the ball this year. he had an OK game today

He ran for over 100 yards, caught 4 passes and a TD and that's only an OK game? I'm biased as a Rudi owner but I've had zero problems with him. Week 1 was a brutal matchup but he still put up decent numbers (thanks to the 2-point conversion) and he had a strong game today. The positive as I pointed out in another thread is how much more involved in the passing game he is this season. In a PPR league he is providing more production than his past levels and there's no reason to think that's going to change for at least the first 8 games until Henry returns. As far as Parker, if people were concerned about him it makes me wonder what their expectations were. Two 100-yard games and a TD to open the season is a very nice start.

I own him too and for the longest time in that game I saw him with about 70 on the ground and the 1 catch for the TD...I see now he did rack up 150 yds, 4 catches, and the TD like you said...but that running game from what I have watched is just not what it was last season. Steinbach being gone IMO has a lot to do with why Rudi struggled at times and why Jamal Lewis was ripping a gash 3 miles wide into the Nati's defnse today. I think he still could be a sell high candidate. He won't catch a lot of balls when Henry gets back...keep him for now but I would not be against trading him for the right player in return...or if you are deep at WR and can package him up for something like Joseph Addai.

 

[tangfoot]

Yes, but you and I have a difference of what the mason dixon line is for RB1 numbers...I do something different. I take the total FF points for #1-#24, assuming most play in a 12 team start 2 format...I then divide by the number of players which is of course 24...then I get the baseline for which to base what an RB1 actually is. And that Mason-Dixon line over the last 5 seasons run eerily close to about 7/8...so Rudi is right on the bubble and that is why I say if he is your RB2, you are doing great...meaning you have one of the guys in the top7 already.

The definition of RB1 is in the top-12 (in a 12-team league). If you want to set your bar higher, that's fine. But "your" definition of RB1 is irrelevant if you are the only person using it.

 

[the_dude]

MoP... so who would you consider true RB1's ?

1.10 Rudi Johnson: His OL is definitely not as good at running the ball this year. he had an OK game today

He ran for over 100 yards, caught 4 passes and a TD and that's only an OK game? I'm biased as a Rudi owner but I've had zero problems with him. Week 1 was a brutal matchup but he still put up decent numbers (thanks to the 2-point conversion) and he had a strong game today. The positive as I pointed out in another thread is how much more involved in the passing game he is this season. In a PPR league he is providing more production than his past levels and there's no reason to think that's going to change for at least the first 8 games until Henry returns. As far as Parker, if people were concerned about him it makes me wonder what their expectations were. Two 100-yard games and a TD to open the season is a very nice start.

I own him too and for the longest time in that game I saw him with about 70 on the ground and the 1 catch for the TD...I see now he did rack up 150 yds, 4 catches, and the TD like you said...but that running game from what I have watched is just not what it was last season. Steinbach being gone IMO has a lot to do with why Rudi struggled at times and why Jamal Lewis was ripping a gash 3 miles wide into the Nati's defnse today. I think he still could be a sell high candidate. He won't catch a lot of balls when Henry gets back...keep him for now but I would not be against trading him for the right player in return...or if you are deep at WR and can package him up for something like Joseph Addai.

It'll take a lot to get me to trade him. The guy is money in the bank every year for at least 1,300 yards and double-digit TDs. And given his increased role in the passing game there's more upside for him in PPR leagues than ever before. People always under-rate this guy but he just puts up good numbers year in and year out. I'll take that happily.

That's been his ceiling and basement basically. But 1,300 yds and 12 TD is not RB1 stats my friend. I consider an RB1 to have the potential for 2,000 total yds and about 15+ TD...I know many of you will say "Well MOP, there aren't too many of those guys." And I will tell you that their aren't too many winners in your leagues either, in fact just one. Rudi is consistent but he doesn't win games on his own really. I think Addai offers a lot more upside and if you can package Rudi with a WR that is riding your bench but is outproducing a lot of other WR2/3 on other rosters...package and trade.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

who would be the right person in return for Rudi ?

1.10 Rudi Johnson: His OL is definitely not as good at running the ball this year. he had an OK game today

He ran for over 100 yards, caught 4 passes and a TD and that's only an OK game? I'm biased as a Rudi owner but I've had zero problems with him. Week 1 was a brutal matchup but he still put up decent numbers (thanks to the 2-point conversion) and he had a strong game today. The positive as I pointed out in another thread is how much more involved in the passing game he is this season. In a PPR league he is providing more production than his past levels and there's no reason to think that's going to change for at least the first 8 games until Henry returns. As far as Parker, if people were concerned about him it makes me wonder what their expectations were. Two 100-yard games and a TD to open the season is a very nice start.

I own him too and for the longest time in that game I saw him with about 70 on the ground and the 1 catch for the TD...I see now he did rack up 150 yds, 4 catches, and the TD like you said...but that running game from what I have watched is just not what it was last season. Steinbach being gone IMO has a lot to do with why Rudi struggled at times and why Jamal Lewis was ripping a gash 3 miles wide into the Nati's defnse today. I think he still could be a sell high candidate. He won't catch a lot of balls when Henry gets back...keep him for now but I would not be against trading him for the right player in return...or if you are deep at WR and can package him up for something like Joseph Addai.

I toss in a decent to good WR and trade for Addai.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Yes, but you and I have a difference of what the mason dixon line is for RB1 numbers...I do something different. I take the total FF points for #1-#24, assuming most play in a 12 team start 2 format...I then divide by the number of players which is of course 24...then I get the baseline for which to base what an RB1 actually is. And that Mason-Dixon line over the last 5 seasons run eerily close to about 7/8...so Rudi is right on the bubble and that is why I say if he is your RB2, you are doing great...meaning you have one of the guys in the top7 already.

The definition of RB1 is in the top-12 (in a 12-team league). If you want to set your bar higher, that's fine. But "your" definition of RB1 is irrelevant if you are the only person using it.

Not really.I wanted to do an entire thread about this before the season started...you don't want the 9th, 10th, 11th, and so on ranke RB starting as your RB1...even if there are 12 teams it puts you in a hole most weeks. You have to go by what the avg number is for the top24 in a 12 team start 2RB ;eagues, and that number is much higher than the 12th ranked RB...I don't make this stuff up, it's hard numbers.If I wrote the whole thing out and showed you it would make a little more sense but Rudi is not an RB1...LT, SJAX, TBarber, LJ, Shaun, those RB have been the RB1 group of the last few years...Rudi only puts up about 1,300 yds and 12-13 TD...those are solid numbers but they pale in comparison to what some of the other RB have done that I mention. This game comes down to just a handful of players IMO. Rudi is desinged better as an RB2.

 

[((Morpheus))]

What are you giving up for LJ right now? Given his brutal upcoming schedule, conventional wisdom is to wait for a couple of weeks. But I see a lot of 0-2 LJ owners anticipating a rough couple of weeks and selling him at 70 cents on the dollar right now.

So now I'm wondering where LJ's current value stands.

Is McGahee too much?

 

[tangfoot]

Yes, but you and I have a difference of what the mason dixon line is for RB1 numbers...I do something different. I take the total FF points for #1-#24, assuming most play in a 12 team start 2 format...I then divide by the number of players which is of course 24...then I get the baseline for which to base what an RB1 actually is. And that Mason-Dixon line over the last 5 seasons run eerily close to about 7/8...so Rudi is right on the bubble and that is why I say if he is your RB2, you are doing great...meaning you have one of the guys in the top7 already.

The definition of RB1 is in the top-12 (in a 12-team league). If you want to set your bar higher, that's fine. But "your" definition of RB1 is irrelevant if you are the only person using it.

Not really.I wanted to do an entire thread about this before the season started...you don't want the 9th, 10th, 11th, and so on ranke RB starting as your RB1...even if there are 12 teams it puts you in a hole most weeks. You have to go by what the avg number is for the top24 in a 12 team start 2RB ;eagues, and that number is much higher than the 12th ranked RB...I don't make this stuff up, it's hard numbers.If I wrote the whole thing out and showed you it would make a little more sense but Rudi is not an RB1...LT, SJAX, TBarber, LJ, Shaun, those RB have been the RB1 group of the last few years...Rudi only puts up about 1,300 yds and 12-13 TD...those are solid numbers but they pale in comparison to what some of the other RB have done that I mention. This game comes down to just a handful of players IMO. Rudi is desinged better as an RB2.

Full disclosure: I have never owned Rudi in any league because I don't like him either.The beauty of his consistent performances has been that you can lock him up as your first RB picked (I'll play your game and not call him an RB1) and then take a flyer on a later-round RB who has the potential to break into the top tier. I'd love to have Rudi's consistent production _IF_ I was high enough on a later RB to get that sexiness that he lacks.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

What are you giving up for LJ right now? Given his brutal upcoming schedule, conventional wisdom is to wait for a couple of weeks. But I see a lot of 0-2 LJ owners anticipating a rough couple of weeks and selling him at 70 cents on the dollar right now.So now I'm wondering where LJ's current value stands. Is McGahee too much?

If you're getting him for McGahee, DO IT.

 

[CiderHouse]

Do you guys see SJAX turning it around production wise this year?

I watched the game yesterday and felt that he was not used enough in the passing game. When Bulger was constantly pressured, I thought they should have run some screen or dump off pass plays to SJAX. He seems to be real good in that phase.

Like many SJAX owners, I am not happy right now, but I think that things will get better. This is not like Lamont Jordan last year where the Raiders offense was just plain awful. The Rams do have weapons and I think they will get it figured out.