Things I'm Noticing while doing Projections for each Team/Player (4 Viewers)

[Scoresman]

I do my own projections, and sometimes I notice patterns, quirks, weird things about players and teams while doing them. This is a thread for me to jot these down for each team as I project them. Good opportunity for others to weigh in and explain some of the things I can't explain or tell me I'm off my rocker on some of my bolder predictions.

This is a slow process, as I project most of the offensive players on each team using historical data, offseason coaching and player moves, and need to ensure all the numbers tie together and make sense.

I project the teams in alphabetical order.

 

[Joe Bryant]

That's awesome @Scoresman. Projections are I think the most difficult part of Fantasy Football. But also by far the most useful. Espeically in non generic scoring systems. Good on you for doing these.

Hope you'll share some of your findings if you feel inclined.

 

[Scoresman]

Arizona

Starting off with a relatively easy team to project. Very little roster turnover including returning all of their starting offensive line. They ran a little over 1,000 offensive plays last year and I'm projecting about the same.

They threw the ball at a much higher rate starting about midseason last year which was quite a turnaround. They ended up with an overall season pass/run rate similar to previous years, so I'm not reading too much into this yet.

Trey McBride had a crazy high target percentage last year of 27.1%. The question this year is if Harrison can have a better sophomore year and take some of these away. I settled on 26.1% for McBride and 23.8% for Harrison.

 

[FarFromHome]

I look forward to this thread if your intention is to post about each team. Mahalo

 

[Scoresman]

Atlanta

Bijan is someone I'm targeting this year. He averaged 13 standard fantasy points the first half of last year, and almost 20 the second half. Continuity on the OL. All aboard.

I'm noticing other people doing projections might be underprojecting Penix's rushing. He had 26 attempts last year in 5 games. Yet I see a lot of people only projecting 40-50 run attempts over a full season this year. Correctd: Penix did not run as much as I thought.

I dont put a ton of weight into SoS, but they are going from 22nd easiest in 2024 to projected 6th hardest in 2025.

 

[Scoresman]

Baltimore

All the talk last year was about Mark Andrew's decline as he started the season terribly. In hindsight, it's clear his car accident was affecting him. He was averaging 5-6 PPG early on , but ended up at almost 10 PPG by the end of the season. I see a return to form, but a slight reduction in TDs because of the next point.

The other question is what to do with Lamar Jackson's 41 TD passes last year. That was insane considered how much this team rushes the ball and they actually threw less last year than the previous year. That kind of TD ratio certainly seems unsustainable going forward and I settled on 29 passing TDs.

It was thought that Henry would really cut into Lamar's running, but he went from 148 runs to 139 from 2023 to 2024, so not much of an impact. And Lamar's rushing efficiency went way up last year, ending up with more rushing yards.

One concern is the loss of two key pieces of the offensive line. They did address this in the later draft rounds but we'll see the impact this has.

 

[ZWK]

I'm noticing other people doing projections might be underprojecting Penix's rushing. He had 26 attempts last year in 5 games. Yet I see a lot of people only projecting 40-50 run attempts over a full season this year.

He had 7 attempts according to PFR, and that might include some kneels.

 

[Scoresman]

I'm noticing other people doing projections might be underprojecting Penix's rushing. He had 26 attempts last year in 5 games. Yet I see a lot of people only projecting 40-50 run attempts over a full season this year.

He had 7 attempts according to PFR, and that might include some kneels.

Hmmm. you're right. Something's off with my data download for him. Thanks. Good thing I'm doing this thread!

 

[Scoresman]

Buffalo

Buffalo is normally pretty easy to project, but there's been a shift in their playcalling recently. I first noticed this when they went from 1,091 offensive plays in 2023 to 1,011 last year. This drop came mostly from a reduced number of pass attempts. It seems like this started when they switched OCs mid 2023. Despite this, Allen remains ultra efficient, since passing TDs did not decline along with the passing rate.

I see no reason why this won't continue. Gone seem the days of Buffalo throwing nearly 600 passes a season. I'm projecting 530 team pass attempts, 3,850 yards and 28 TDs.

Not sure yet what to do with Kincaid/Knox. Last year, they were both very inconsistent week to week with Kincaid doing better early, Knox doing better late. There's about 100 targets between the two and right now I have a 65/35 split in favor of Kincaid. Subject to change.

Also, Buffalo spreads the ball around a lot. I only project the top 3 WRs on each team individually, lumping all other WRs together to complete each team's totals. Buffalos WR4+ had an 18% target ratio last year which is very high. Maybe the addition of Joshua Palmer changes this? I'm at about 15% target share for WR4+ since talented guys like Samuel and Moore are still on the depth chart.

 

[Scoresman]

Carolina

We finally get to a team that is truly tough to project. Last year, they went up in just about every category from 2023, except they did it all on 74 fewer offensive plays.

Bryce Young appears to be the real deal, improving greatly as last season went along. I'm mostly projecting his late season improved numbers over the course of this season.

The offensive line played very well, exceeding expectations leading one to wonder if they overachieved and are due for regression or if they are for real.

To make it even more complicated, they have a rookie atop the WR depth chart.

I settled on a 5% increase in offensive plays, and about the same increase to passing and rushing numbers. So I'm banking on some of that improved efficiency sticking around, just not as much of an outlier. Their defense is still pretty awful though, so I'm not projecting much more rushing than last year.

I'm bullish on McMillan with an improved Bryce Young throwing to him. I have him at 130/82/1035/7 for now. 23.4% target share. I think Dowdle does cut into Chuba's production a bit as he was effective last year. Especially in the passing game. I projected Dowdle to be targeted 60 times, vs 35 for Chuba.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I'm noticing other people doing projections might be underprojecting Penix's rushing. He had 26 attempts last year in 5 games. Yet I see a lot of people only projecting 40-50 run attempts over a full season this year.

He had 7 attempts according to PFR, and that might include some kneels.

Hmmm. you're right. Something's off with my data download for him. Thanks. Good thing I'm doing this thread!

I get it. One more example of how projections are difficult. There are lots of pitfalls to fall into.

 

[Scoresman]

I'm noticing other people doing projections might be underprojecting Penix's rushing. He had 26 attempts last year in 5 games. Yet I see a lot of people only projecting 40-50 run attempts over a full season this year.

He had 7 attempts according to PFR, and that might include some kneels.

Hmmm. you're right. Something's off with my data download for him. Thanks. Good thing I'm doing this thread!

I get it. One more example of how projections are difficult. There are lots of pitfalls to fall into.

There are so many things to look at and take into consideration. Like offensive line rankings. They are all over the place from expert to expert, but the data shows that OLs are tremendously important to fantasy production.

The key for me has been looking at each team’s totals from year to year and using that as the starting point. Some teams have been very consistent over the years and are fairly easy to project. But sometimes there are huge differences in the splits from year to year and the key is to explain why. Was it a new coaching staff? Key injuries, or just a fluke? If you can explain why, you can adjust projections accordingly.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I'm noticing other people doing projections might be underprojecting Penix's rushing. He had 26 attempts last year in 5 games. Yet I see a lot of people only projecting 40-50 run attempts over a full season this year.

He had 7 attempts according to PFR, and that might include some kneels.

Hmmm. you're right. Something's off with my data download for him. Thanks. Good thing I'm doing this thread!

I get it. One more example of how projections are difficult. There are lots of pitfalls to fall into.

There are so many things to look at and take into consideration. Like offensive line rankings. They are all over the place from expert to expert, but the data shows that OLs are tremendously important to fantasy production.

The key for me has been looking at each team’s totals from year to year and using that as the starting point. Some teams have been very consistent over the years and are fairly easy to project. But sometimes there are huge differences in the splits from year to year and the key is to explain why. Was it a new coaching staff? Key injuries, or just a fluke? If you can explain why, you can adjust projections accordingly.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Y'all would have enjoyed the FBG Staff Basecamp forum today where I went in yelling about why we only have Penix projected for 40 carries when he had 26 in five games last year...

 

[Grid71]

Y'all would have enjoyed the FBG Staff Basecamp forum today where I went in yelling about why we only have Penix projected for 40 carries when he had 26 in five games last year...

Staff is gonna razz you. Didn't Penix have 7 carries for 11 yards over the last 5 games? He's not known for rushing ability.

 

[Scoresman]

Y'all would have enjoyed the FBG Staff Basecamp forum today where I went in yelling about why we only have Penix projected for 40 carries when he had 26 in five games last year...

Oh god. Sorry about that.

I haven’t watched a lot of Penix’s game so players like that I rely on the numbers. Hopefully the correct ones!

 

[Scoresman]

Chicago

Fun team to project. Best HC hire of the offseason, so previous year's data is a lot less useful. He has said his priority is developing Caleb Williams. When I look at his 2024 stats, they really aren't that bad on paper. No reason he cant see further improvement. That said, he had serious struggles with deep balls. So I'm being conservative with his YPA numbers a bit.

They made a ton of OL changes which will hopefully help.

Really curious to see if they sign anyone at RB. Swift did not have the numbers of a primary back. 3.8 YPC? And their O line wasn't top tier but wasn't awful either. I projected a slight uptick due to line improvements, but Swift doesn't seem to be the answer. Especially because Vegas has them winning three more games than last year, so theoretically, they should run more.

I am projecting DJ Moore and Odunze very similar. I have them both at 23%. Odunze had three TDs last year, but had 6-7 expected TDs so there should be positive regression. I have Loveland at 12.4%. Kmet is done.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

Atlanta

Bijan is someone I'm targeting this year. He averaged 13 standard fantasy points the first half of last year, and almost 20 the second half. Continuity on the OL. All aboard.

I'm noticing other people doing projections might be underprojecting Penix's rushing. He had 26 attempts last year in 5 games. Yet I see a lot of people only projecting 40-50 run attempts over a full season this year. Correctd: Penix did not run as much as I thought.

I dont put a ton of weight into SoS, but they are going from 22nd easiest in 2024 to projected 6th hardest in 2025.

Atlanta picked up blocking TE Charlie Woerner from San Fran last year. He spent the previous 4 years learning how to block from George Kittle. In the 11 games he saw at least 23 snaps, Bijan averaged 23 points per game PPR. In the 6 games he saw less than 20 snaps, Robinson averaged 14. The only bad fantasy game Bijan had after week 5 was week 11. That was the only game Charlie missed. Throwing out week 11, Woerner played 23 more snaps than Pitts after week 7.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Baltimore

All the talk last year was about Mark Andrew's decline as he started the season terribly. In hindsight, it's clear his car accident was affecting him. He was averaging 5-6 PPG early on , but ended up at almost 10 PPG by the end of the season. I see a return to form, but a slight reduction in TDs because of the next point.

The other question is what to do with Lamar Jackson's 41 TD passes last year. That was insane considered how much this team rushes the ball and they actually threw less last year than the previous year. That kind of TD ratio certainly seems unsustainable going forward and I settled on 29 passing TDs.

It was thought that Henry would really cut into Lamar's running, but he went from 148 runs to 139 from 2023 to 2024, so not much of an impact. And Lamar's rushing efficiency went way up last year, ending up with more rushing yards.

One concern is the loss of two key pieces of the offensive line. They did address this in the later draft rounds but we'll see the impact this has.

I'd be interested in seeing your full projections for Baltimore's players.

Anyway, to your post.......

Besides the car accident, Andrews was coming off of a nasty (is there any other kind?) broken ankle injury late in 2023. He's a bulldog, but looked tentative to me early on. I agree that the TD production may drop, but I think his catches per game may be around what he was getting towards the end of 2024.

As for Jackson, he put up one of the great passing seasons in NFL history last year. It's hard to replicate that. I'd split the difference with your projected total and what he did last season - let's shake hands and call it 35 passing TDs/8 INTs. He has the best offense he's ever had and I just can't see much of a drop.

The OL at Guard is a concern since they lost Mekari. They are fine at OT and Center, barring injury. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that their long-time OL coach died last summer and I think that shook them for a good while. Even with the Mekari loss, I think the "mood" among that group will be more stable this season.

The other thing to consider is that I believe the defense will play much closer to what they were after the bye than earlier in the season. If I'm right, Baltimore will have more scoring chances from better field positions.

 

[Scoresman]

Baltimore

All the talk last year was about Mark Andrew's decline as he started the season terribly. In hindsight, it's clear his car accident was affecting him. He was averaging 5-6 PPG early on , but ended up at almost 10 PPG by the end of the season. I see a return to form, but a slight reduction in TDs because of the next point.

The other question is what to do with Lamar Jackson's 41 TD passes last year. That was insane considered how much this team rushes the ball and they actually threw less last year than the previous year. That kind of TD ratio certainly seems unsustainable going forward and I settled on 29 passing TDs.

It was thought that Henry would really cut into Lamar's running, but he went from 148 runs to 139 from 2023 to 2024, so not much of an impact. And Lamar's rushing efficiency went way up last year, ending up with more rushing yards.

One concern is the loss of two key pieces of the offensive line. They did address this in the later draft rounds but we'll see the impact this has.

I'd be interested in seeing your full projections for Baltimore's players.

Anyway, to your post.......

Besides the car accident, Andrews was coming off of a nasty (is there any other kind?) broken ankle injury late in 2023. He's a bulldog, but looked tentative to me early on. I agree that the TD production may drop, but I think his catches per game may be around what he was getting towards the end of 2024.

As for Jackson, he put up one of the great passing seasons in NFL history last year. It's hard to replicate that. I'd split the difference with your projected total and what he did last season - let's shake hands and call it 35 passing TDs/8 INTs. He has the best offense he's ever had and I just can't see much of a drop.

The OL at Guard is a concern since they lost Mekari. They are fine at OT and Center, barring injury. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that their long-time OL coach died last summer and I think that shook them for a good while. Even with the Mekari loss, I think the "mood" among that group will be more stable this season.

The other thing to consider is that I believe the defense will play much closer to what they were after the bye than earlier in the season. If I'm right, Baltimore will have more scoring chances from better field positions.

Thanks for the feedback.

Here's a snip of my Baltimore projections.

I'm taking your advice and bumping pass TDs up a bit. Settled on 31 for Lamar for now.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Baltimore

All the talk last year was about Mark Andrew's decline as he started the season terribly. In hindsight, it's clear his car accident was affecting him. He was averaging 5-6 PPG early on , but ended up at almost 10 PPG by the end of the season. I see a return to form, but a slight reduction in TDs because of the next point.

The other question is what to do with Lamar Jackson's 41 TD passes last year. That was insane considered how much this team rushes the ball and they actually threw less last year than the previous year. That kind of TD ratio certainly seems unsustainable going forward and I settled on 29 passing TDs.

It was thought that Henry would really cut into Lamar's running, but he went from 148 runs to 139 from 2023 to 2024, so not much of an impact. And Lamar's rushing efficiency went way up last year, ending up with more rushing yards.

One concern is the loss of two key pieces of the offensive line. They did address this in the later draft rounds but we'll see the impact this has.

I'd be interested in seeing your full projections for Baltimore's players.

Anyway, to your post.......

Besides the car accident, Andrews was coming off of a nasty (is there any other kind?) broken ankle injury late in 2023. He's a bulldog, but looked tentative to me early on. I agree that the TD production may drop, but I think his catches per game may be around what he was getting towards the end of 2024.

As for Jackson, he put up one of the great passing seasons in NFL history last year. It's hard to replicate that. I'd split the difference with your projected total and what he did last season - let's shake hands and call it 35 passing TDs/8 INTs. He has the best offense he's ever had and I just can't see much of a drop.

The OL at Guard is a concern since they lost Mekari. They are fine at OT and Center, barring injury. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that their long-time OL coach died last summer and I think that shook them for a good while. Even with the Mekari loss, I think the "mood" among that group will be more stable this season.

The other thing to consider is that I believe the defense will play much closer to what they were after the bye than earlier in the season. If I'm right, Baltimore will have more scoring chances from better field positions.

Thanks for the feedback.

Here's a snip of my Baltimore projections.

I'm taking your advice and bumping pass TDs up a bit. Settled on 31 for Lamar for now.

That looks pretty realistic. I think Mitchell's YPC are a little low, but he's not getting enough for it to make a big difference overall. I also think Flowers' yards per catch will be higher than Bateman's, but - again - I'm quibbling and am an awful prognosticator.

 

[Scoresman]

Baltimore

All the talk last year was about Mark Andrew's decline as he started the season terribly. In hindsight, it's clear his car accident was affecting him. He was averaging 5-6 PPG early on , but ended up at almost 10 PPG by the end of the season. I see a return to form, but a slight reduction in TDs because of the next point.

The other question is what to do with Lamar Jackson's 41 TD passes last year. That was insane considered how much this team rushes the ball and they actually threw less last year than the previous year. That kind of TD ratio certainly seems unsustainable going forward and I settled on 29 passing TDs.

It was thought that Henry would really cut into Lamar's running, but he went from 148 runs to 139 from 2023 to 2024, so not much of an impact. And Lamar's rushing efficiency went way up last year, ending up with more rushing yards.

One concern is the loss of two key pieces of the offensive line. They did address this in the later draft rounds but we'll see the impact this has.

I'd be interested in seeing your full projections for Baltimore's players.

Anyway, to your post.......

Besides the car accident, Andrews was coming off of a nasty (is there any other kind?) broken ankle injury late in 2023. He's a bulldog, but looked tentative to me early on. I agree that the TD production may drop, but I think his catches per game may be around what he was getting towards the end of 2024.

As for Jackson, he put up one of the great passing seasons in NFL history last year. It's hard to replicate that. I'd split the difference with your projected total and what he did last season - let's shake hands and call it 35 passing TDs/8 INTs. He has the best offense he's ever had and I just can't see much of a drop.

The OL at Guard is a concern since they lost Mekari. They are fine at OT and Center, barring injury. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that their long-time OL coach died last summer and I think that shook them for a good while. Even with the Mekari loss, I think the "mood" among that group will be more stable this season.

The other thing to consider is that I believe the defense will play much closer to what they were after the bye than earlier in the season. If I'm right, Baltimore will have more scoring chances from better field positions.

Thanks for the feedback.

Here's a snip of my Baltimore projections.

I'm taking your advice and bumping pass TDs up a bit. Settled on 31 for Lamar for now.

That looks pretty realistic. I think Mitchell's YPC are a little low, but he's not getting enough for it to make a big difference overall. I also think Flowers' yards per catch will be higher than Bateman's, but - again - I'm quibbling and am an awful prognosticator.

Thanks. Yards per Reception is a very fluky stat sometimes. I look at averages for the last 2 years, but cognizant of team and roster changes and stuff like that. Bateman had a full 2.5 YPR over Flowers last year.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Baltimore

All the talk last year was about Mark Andrew's decline as he started the season terribly. In hindsight, it's clear his car accident was affecting him. He was averaging 5-6 PPG early on , but ended up at almost 10 PPG by the end of the season. I see a return to form, but a slight reduction in TDs because of the next point.

The other question is what to do with Lamar Jackson's 41 TD passes last year. That was insane considered how much this team rushes the ball and they actually threw less last year than the previous year. That kind of TD ratio certainly seems unsustainable going forward and I settled on 29 passing TDs.

It was thought that Henry would really cut into Lamar's running, but he went from 148 runs to 139 from 2023 to 2024, so not much of an impact. And Lamar's rushing efficiency went way up last year, ending up with more rushing yards.

One concern is the loss of two key pieces of the offensive line. They did address this in the later draft rounds but we'll see the impact this has.

I'd be interested in seeing your full projections for Baltimore's players.

Anyway, to your post.......

Besides the car accident, Andrews was coming off of a nasty (is there any other kind?) broken ankle injury late in 2023. He's a bulldog, but looked tentative to me early on. I agree that the TD production may drop, but I think his catches per game may be around what he was getting towards the end of 2024.

As for Jackson, he put up one of the great passing seasons in NFL history last year. It's hard to replicate that. I'd split the difference with your projected total and what he did last season - let's shake hands and call it 35 passing TDs/8 INTs. He has the best offense he's ever had and I just can't see much of a drop.

The OL at Guard is a concern since they lost Mekari. They are fine at OT and Center, barring injury. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that their long-time OL coach died last summer and I think that shook them for a good while. Even with the Mekari loss, I think the "mood" among that group will be more stable this season.

The other thing to consider is that I believe the defense will play much closer to what they were after the bye than earlier in the season. If I'm right, Baltimore will have more scoring chances from better field positions.

Thanks for the feedback.

Here's a snip of my Baltimore projections.

I'm taking your advice and bumping pass TDs up a bit. Settled on 31 for Lamar for now.

That looks pretty realistic. I think Mitchell's YPC are a little low, but he's not getting enough for it to make a big difference overall. I also think Flowers' yards per catch will be higher than Bateman's, but - again - I'm quibbling and am an awful prognosticator.

Thanks. Yards per Reception is a very fluky stat sometimes. I look at averages for the last 2 years, but cognizant of team and roster changes and stuff like that. Bateman had a full 2.5 YPR over Flowers last year.

Good point and one I didn't consider in my previous post. They'll throw bubble screens or inside pitches to Flowers which can get blown up, whereas Bateman runs almost exclusively "regular" WR routes.

Anyway, great work and thanks for your thoughts.

 

[Scoresman]

Cincinnati

Coming off career years from Burrow and Chase, I'm building in a little regression, but not a ton. Not a lot has changed for them, Vegas has a similar win total from last year, O line is still terrible, and their schedule may be a little easier on top of that.

630/432/4,599/37 for Burrow, and 118/1,495/13 for Chase.

I really like Chase Brown, but I dont know what kind of progression I can give him running behind that awful line. He had 4.3 YPC last year and I'm going with 4.4 this year to account for development as a player, but that's it. At least for now.

The other thing with Cincinnati is their notorious tendency to start slow. Thy did it again last year, although it didn't take too long for them to right the ship compared to previous years. I wonder when they are going to realize this is a thing and maybe work the starters a bit harder in camp.

 

[rschroeder1]

Chicago

Fun team to project. Best HC hire of the offseason, so previous year's data is a lot less useful. He has said his priority is developing Caleb Williams. When I look at his 2024 stats, they really aren't that bad on paper. No reason he cant see further improvement. That said, he had serious struggles with deep balls. So I'm being conservative with his YPA numbers a bit.

They made a ton of OL changes which will hopefully help.

Really curious to see if they sign anyone at RB. Swift did not have the numbers of a primary back. 3.8 YPC? And their O line wasn't top tier but wasn't awful either. I projected a slight uptick due to line improvements, but Swift doesn't seem to be the answer. Especially because Vegas has them winning three more games than last year, so theoretically, they should run more.

I am projecting DJ Moore and Odunze very similar. I have them both at 23%. Odunze had three TDs last year, but had 6-7 expected TDs so there should be positive regression. I have Loveland at 12.4%. Kmet is done.

Swift is a tough one to project, as in Ben Johnson's first year as OC with Detroit, Swift's carries decreased from 151 to 99, targets decreased from 78 to 70. However, he posted a career high of 5.5 YPC that year, albeit with a smaller sample size.

With that said, the Bears last year did not play to Swift's strengths. According to Rotowire, 61% of his carries were inside the tackles, where Swift averaged 3.5 YPC. Ben Johnson has called outside runs with high frequency throughout his career as an OC, so the Bears' gameplan may better suit Swift's strengths this year.

I don't think Swift is all that great, but I think he'll be more efficient in 2025.

 

[warpig33]

Chicago

Fun team to project. Best HC hire of the offseason, so previous year's data is a lot less useful. He has said his priority is developing Caleb Williams. When I look at his 2024 stats, they really aren't that bad on paper. No reason he cant see further improvement. That said, he had serious struggles with deep balls. So I'm being conservative with his YPA numbers a bit.

They made a ton of OL changes which will hopefully help.

Really curious to see if they sign anyone at RB. Swift did not have the numbers of a primary back. 3.8 YPC? And their O line wasn't top tier but wasn't awful either. I projected a slight uptick due to line improvements, but Swift doesn't seem to be the answer. Especially because Vegas has them winning three more games than last year, so theoretically, they should run more.

I am projecting DJ Moore and Odunze very similar. I have them both at 23%. Odunze had three TDs last year, but had 6-7 expected TDs so there should be positive regression. I have Loveland at 12.4%. Kmet is done.

Just curious about the bolded part. Not arguing, just wonder why you are saying he is done. Assuming it's because of Loveland's arrival? Kmet wasn't bad statistically last year. Averaged about 3 - 4 targets a game with some games where he got 10 targets or close to it. And rookie TE's (not named Bowers) tend to struggle to the adjustment of the NFL...AND Loveland is recovering from injury if I'm not mistaken. And I know they have a ton of mouths to feed. I'm just wondering if they don't lean more on Kmet in the beginning of the season as they convert to Loveland. I'm not familiar with their OC (or whomever will be calling plays), but what are the chances of them running two TE sets? Or empty backfield plays since popular opinion is they aren't enamored with Swift. Or if they weed Swift out of the passing game, that means more passes to the WRs and TEs?

Thanks for your time in doing this! Cheers!

 

[Scoresman]

Chicago

Fun team to project. Best HC hire of the offseason, so previous year's data is a lot less useful. He has said his priority is developing Caleb Williams. When I look at his 2024 stats, they really aren't that bad on paper. No reason he cant see further improvement. That said, he had serious struggles with deep balls. So I'm being conservative with his YPA numbers a bit.

They made a ton of OL changes which will hopefully help.

Really curious to see if they sign anyone at RB. Swift did not have the numbers of a primary back. 3.8 YPC? And their O line wasn't top tier but wasn't awful either. I projected a slight uptick due to line improvements, but Swift doesn't seem to be the answer. Especially because Vegas has them winning three more games than last year, so theoretically, they should run more.

I am projecting DJ Moore and Odunze very similar. I have them both at 23%. Odunze had three TDs last year, but had 6-7 expected TDs so there should be positive regression. I have Loveland at 12.4%. Kmet is done.

Just curious about the bolded part. Not arguing, just wonder why you are saying he is done. Assuming it's because of Loveland's arrival? Kmet wasn't bad statistically last year. Averaged about 3 - 4 targets a game with some games where he got 10 targets or close to it. And rookie TE's (not named Bowers) tend to struggle to the adjustment of the NFL...AND Loveland is recovering from injury if I'm not mistaken. And I know they have a ton of mouths to feed. I'm just wondering if they don't lean more on Kmet in the beginning of the season as they convert to Loveland. I'm not familiar with their OC (or whomever will be calling plays), but what are the chances of them running two TE sets? Or empty backfield plays since popular opinion is they aren't enamored with Swift. Or if they weed Swift out of the passing game, that means more passes to the WRs and TEs?

Thanks for your time in doing this! Cheers!

Saying he's done might be a bit of hyperbole. But his target share plummetted last year. Bring in a new coach with a fresh new draft pick and it looks like the writing may be on the wall.

I projected Kmet for 21/210/2 which may be harsh, might change later.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Y'all would have enjoyed the FBG Staff Basecamp forum today where I went in yelling about why we only have Penix projected for 40 carries when he had 26 in five games last year...

Staff is gonna razz you. Didn't Penix have 7 carries for 11 yards over the last 5 games? He's not known for rushing ability.

It's been ugly.

I was on mobile and didn't fact check. Just saw it and instantly went to my staff to ask.

 

[Joe Bryant]

The upside is it spawned a 15 message deep dive breakdown into his rushing ability and prediction for this year.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Y'all would have enjoyed the FBG Staff Basecamp forum today where I went in yelling about why we only have Penix projected for 40 carries when he had 26 in five games last year...

Oh god. Sorry about that.

I haven’t watched a lot of Penix’s game so players like that I rely on the numbers. Hopefully the correct ones!

All good, GB. As I said, projections are difficult. There's a reason hardly anyone does them.

 

[Scoresman]

Cleveland

When I do projections, I do it at a team level and start with QB. The QB situation in Cleveland makes me want to wait to see who will actually start. For now I'm projecting all QBs about equal knowing this will definitely change.

Then, on top of this they go out and draft a RB after Jerome Ford quietly put up a pretty good stat year especially towards late in the year and also considering the OL was a disaster with injuries.

Njoku is emerging as being better than last year mainly because of a lack of other real targets other than Jeudy. But this is going to depend so much on QB play.

 

[Scoresman]

Dallas

Even when healthy last year, Dak Prescott wasnt playing up to his career standard. He had a career low in TD ratio and near low in completion %, and high in interception rate. I want to project a comeback for him, but with RBs that wont scare anybody, and a new situation on the O line, I'm hesitant. Slight uptick in per game numbers.

Javonte Williams couldn't muster more than 3.7 YPA behind a good Denver line last year.

On the positive side, both Lamb and Ferguson played up to their ADP for the most part when Dak was playing, even with a less than stellar Dak.

Vegas has them winning a half a game more than last year, which seems about right after diving into the numbers. Going into this I was expecting a bit more of a comeback for them.

 

[Scoresman]

Denver

I expected to really project some increased numbers for Denver's offense, but I struggle to project them much higher than last year. Vegas has them winning a half game less than last year, and they have a slightly tougher projected SoS.

I dont have access to PFF's O line analysis, but looking at the numbers, it seems they absolutely excel at pass protection but are a bit suspect at run blocking? Denver RBs last year only had 4.1 YPC which was 22nd in the league. For such a touted O line, that was surprising. Even Nix only had 4.7 YPC.

I don't know what to do with the Denver RB situation. I look at some other projections when doing mine and I get stuck like this. Mike Clay has Harvey clearly emerging with 190 carries, with McLaughlin next at just over 100. FBG projections have Harvey and Estime at about a 50/50 with McLaughlin a distant third. That's a pretty big difference.

 

[TheWinz]

I just wanted to chime in to say - KEEP IT UP! This is some great reading, thanx.

 

[Grid71]

Dallas

Even when healthy last year, Dak Prescott wasnt playing up to his career standard. He had a career low in TD ratio and near low in completion %, and high in interception rate. I want to project a comeback for him, but with RBs that wont scare anybody, and a new situation on the O line, I'm hesitant. Slight uptick in per game numbers.

Javonte Williams couldn't muster more than 3.7 YPA behind a good Denver line last year.

On the positive side, both Lamb and Ferguson played up to their ADP for the most part when Dak was playing, even with a less than stellar Dak.

Vegas has them winning a half a game more than last year, which seems about right after diving into the numbers. Going into this I was expecting a bit more of a comeback for them.

I'm with you on Javonte. Think he's toast after struggling behind a solid Denver OL.
Jaydon Blue is a fumble waiting to happen. I like him as a limited touch pass catching back. Better in best ball than leagues where you set a lineup.
My confidence is low, but Miles Sanders getting out of Carolina gets one last shot with very little competition. I think he takes the RB1 role away from Javonte assuming the room doesn't change.
More confident the RB 1 isn't on the roster today. Could see a trade/pick up someone like Dobbins. June 1st cuts are coming.

 

[Biabreakable]

Baltimore

All the talk last year was about Mark Andrew's decline as he started the season terribly. In hindsight, it's clear his car accident was affecting him. He was averaging 5-6 PPG early on , but ended up at almost 10 PPG by the end of the season. I see a return to form, but a slight reduction in TDs because of the next point.

The other question is what to do with Lamar Jackson's 41 TD passes last year. That was insane considered how much this team rushes the ball and they actually threw less last year than the previous year. That kind of TD ratio certainly seems unsustainable going forward and I settled on 29 passing TDs.

It was thought that Henry would really cut into Lamar's running, but he went from 148 runs to 139 from 2023 to 2024, so not much of an impact. And Lamar's rushing efficiency went way up last year, ending up with more rushing yards.

One concern is the loss of two key pieces of the offensive line. They did address this in the later draft rounds but we'll see the impact this has.

I'd be interested in seeing your full projections for Baltimore's players.

Anyway, to your post.......

Besides the car accident, Andrews was coming off of a nasty (is there any other kind?) broken ankle injury late in 2023. He's a bulldog, but looked tentative to me early on. I agree that the TD production may drop, but I think his catches per game may be around what he was getting towards the end of 2024.

As for Jackson, he put up one of the great passing seasons in NFL history last year. It's hard to replicate that. I'd split the difference with your projected total and what he did last season - let's shake hands and call it 35 passing TDs/8 INTs. He has the best offense he's ever had and I just can't see much of a drop.

The OL at Guard is a concern since they lost Mekari. They are fine at OT and Center, barring injury. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that their long-time OL coach died last summer and I think that shook them for a good while. Even with the Mekari loss, I think the "mood" among that group will be more stable this season.

The other thing to consider is that I believe the defense will play much closer to what they were after the bye than earlier in the season. If I'm right, Baltimore will have more scoring chances from better field positions.

Thanks for the feedback.

Here's a snip of my Baltimore projections.

I'm taking your advice and bumping pass TDs up a bit. Settled on 31 for Lamar for now.

That looks pretty realistic. I think Mitchell's YPC are a little low, but he's not getting enough for it to make a big difference overall. I also think Flowers' yards per catch will be higher than Bateman's, but - again - I'm quibbling and am an awful prognosticator.

Thanks. Yards per Reception is a very fluky stat sometimes. I look at averages for the last 2 years, but cognizant of team and roster changes and stuff like that. Bateman had a full 2.5 YPR over Flowers last year.

I think yards per target is a better metric than yards per reception for comparative purposes.

I am not sure which metric is more sticky than the other for the purpose of making projections with. My guess would be yards per target but maybe not. Not sure.

 

[Biabreakable]

I just wanted to chime in to say - KEEP IT UP! This is some great reading, thanx.

Ditto. I appreciate the thread and if anyone else has some projections they want to put forth for the community to scrutinize even better.

I will just have to wait until near the end for Vikings projections.

 

[Scoresman]

I just wanted to chime in to say - KEEP IT UP! This is some great reading, thanx.

Ditto. I appreciate the thread and if anyone else has some projections they want to put forth for the community to scrutinize even better.

I will just have to wait until near the end for Vikings projections.

Yeah, I'd love to see if others are projecting and how they are doing it.

 

[Biabreakable]

I just wanted to chime in to say - KEEP IT UP! This is some great reading, thanx.

Ditto. I appreciate the thread and if anyone else has some projections they want to put forth for the community to scrutinize even better.

I will just have to wait until near the end for Vikings projections.

Yeah, I'd love to see if others are projecting and how they are doing it.

I haven't done any for 2025 yet but I might do a few teams.

Will share results if I get around to it.

 

[TheWinz]

I just wanted to chime in to say - KEEP IT UP! This is some great reading, thanx.

Ditto. I appreciate the thread and if anyone else has some projections they want to put forth for the community to scrutinize even better.

I will just have to wait until near the end for Vikings projections.

Yeah, I'd love to see if others are projecting and how they are doing it.

I have never actually done full team projections, but I am gonna give my Chargers a shot. This is gonna be a hoot, and I will post my awful predictions in here when I'm done. I will do as you did, with top 3 RB's and WR's, and top 2 TE's. This may take a while, stay tuned.

 

[Biabreakable]

The Most Predictable Wide Receiver Stats

Metrics that measure talent are much more important for wide receivers relative to running backs. And in many ways that makes sense. If a coaching staff so chooses, they can give any running back a massive amount of touches. That’s not the case at wide receiver. On a typical pass play, a WR is...

www.4for4.com

I guess yards per route run and receptions for first downs really sticky compared to yards per reception.

There is a bunch of information about that I've been reading before I take a crack at it.