#4 might also be a swing and a miss as well.
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THINGS YOU MIGHT NOT THINK HEADING INTO 2009 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter kremenull
- Start date
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
What did you come across during your "analysis" that made you question Crabtree's attitude, work ethic and internal makeup? Just curious.I'm a Texas Tech homer and I've watched the guy for a while. He always seemed hard working, and a "nice guy" in general. I was really confused when Mangini spoke out against his character, calling him a diva. Maybe he rubbed the guy the wrong way, I don't know. But as far as I know, Mangini has been the ONLY one to say such a thing, and anyone calling Crabtree out on it has very little evidence other than Mangini's word.
kremenull
Footballguy
The stalker is back.......I might have to file a restraining order against you.....Oh, I almost forgot, YOU are the message board police aka wanna-be cyber cop!Crabtree is playing quite well all things considered. Make you happy now? Has he helped you win anything yet?
kremenull
Footballguy
Mr. Crabtree was certainly going about his business the wrong way, IMO, initially. Since he signed though, he has been about as good as could be expected given the situation with the time missed and everything. Looks like he could be good, but I certainly have no regrets about not going after this guy in any of my leagues. The rooks I targeted and/or valued more than Mr. Crabtree are Beanie, Harvin, McCoy, and Maclin.......That opinion still remains.....
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Chunky Soup
Footballguy
Wow, I've never really seen a "LOOK AT ME CALL THE SHOTS" thread with so many misfires. Nice work.
Weapon of Mass Instruction
Watch my feet!
What else ya got?
kremenull
Footballguy
Providing another contrarian look into the future.....things not so common amongst the consensus fantasy community and NFL observers, from what I've seen and read.
1. Much improved teams from last season, NFL- and fantasy-wise: Oakland Raiders, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, and Cleveland Browns.
2. On the flip side, teams that will disappoint: Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Washington Redskins
3. Aaron Rodgers will be the NFL MVP......as well as most outstanding fantasy player
4. C.J. Spiller, Jahvid Best, and Ryan Mathews will all have very good seasons. Similar to the 2008 trio of Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Chris Johnson, the inaugural seasons of the top RBs from this year's class will help many fantasy owners compete for their league championships. Jahvid Best will be Offensive Rookie Of the Year
5. Legedu Naanee is better than Malcolm Floyd. This has been my belief for the past year and some change. This season will reveal the truth.
6. Similarly, Jordy Nelson > James Jones. Not even close, IMO. Jordy is simply the more complete WR.
7. Michael Vick, Dennis Dixon, and Seneca Wallace will make a significant impact on their teams in 2010. Also Tim Tebow, to a lesser extent, all players in a QB COP role (Change Of Pace).
8. DeSean Jackson will silence his critics/skeptics. Those that don't believe, will become witnesses to another year of astounding, big-time playmaking.
9. QB Guys named Matt, order of finish (fantasy-wise) - (1) Matt Schaub, (2) Matt Stafford, (3) Matt Hasselbeck, (4) Matt Leinart, (5) Matt Cassel, (6) Matt Ryan, (7) Matt Moore
Speaking of Matt Ryan, he is one of the most overrated fantasy players I've seen in quite some time. Mark Sanchez will outperform Ryan this year.
1. Much improved teams from last season, NFL- and fantasy-wise: Oakland Raiders, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, and Cleveland Browns.
2. On the flip side, teams that will disappoint: Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Washington Redskins
3. Aaron Rodgers will be the NFL MVP......as well as most outstanding fantasy player
4. C.J. Spiller, Jahvid Best, and Ryan Mathews will all have very good seasons. Similar to the 2008 trio of Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Chris Johnson, the inaugural seasons of the top RBs from this year's class will help many fantasy owners compete for their league championships. Jahvid Best will be Offensive Rookie Of the Year
5. Legedu Naanee is better than Malcolm Floyd. This has been my belief for the past year and some change. This season will reveal the truth.
6. Similarly, Jordy Nelson > James Jones. Not even close, IMO. Jordy is simply the more complete WR.
7. Michael Vick, Dennis Dixon, and Seneca Wallace will make a significant impact on their teams in 2010. Also Tim Tebow, to a lesser extent, all players in a QB COP role (Change Of Pace).
8. DeSean Jackson will silence his critics/skeptics. Those that don't believe, will become witnesses to another year of astounding, big-time playmaking.
9. QB Guys named Matt, order of finish (fantasy-wise) - (1) Matt Schaub, (2) Matt Stafford, (3) Matt Hasselbeck, (4) Matt Leinart, (5) Matt Cassel, (6) Matt Ryan, (7) Matt Moore
Speaking of Matt Ryan, he is one of the most overrated fantasy players I've seen in quite some time. Mark Sanchez will outperform Ryan this year.
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Instinctive
Footballguy
umm...Schaub?
kremenull
Footballguy
He was so far above their realm, I had forgot about him being a Matt......Updated.....Thanks!
theglorydays
Footballguy
I think this list is much better then last years.I'm not buying #7 at all and i don't think Matt Ryan will be horrible unless he is injured, but overall I think can agree with most of what you wrote. (Haven't really seen enough of Nanee or Jones/Nelson to comment on who is better)Good post.
az_prof
Footballguy
After looking at last year's predictions I would have thought you would have been content to let this thread disappear and give up these out of the box predictions. But at least this year most of your predictions are far less radical. Let's take a look.1) Of these four teams, the only one with a real chance of making the playoffs is the Raiders. If by "greatly improved" you mean 6-10 or 7-9 or maybe 8-8, yeah, the Bears, Lions, and Browns might reach those marks. But the only one that has a legitimate chance to be greatly improved is the Raiders.2) Of the four you claim will disappoint, I disagree with all of them. The Dolphins are in one of the toughest conferences with both NE and the Jets but I think they improved their D and the addition of a healthy Ronnie Brown and a new Brandon Marshall, the Finns will compete. Count me a believer in Big Mike in SF; he has really changed the attitude on that team and they will reap the benefits this season as I fully expect them to win the NFC West. The Bengals should be as good as last year and if Palmer's accuracy improves they could be even better. The Redskins ARE in fact in the toughest conference with a very tough and improved Dallas, always tough NYG and PHI. So, they have a tough hill to climb and I don't expect them to make the playoffs this season. But they will do better under Shanny--that man knows how to win.3) Rodgers as MVP isn't really that far out of the box at all; most people consider him at least a top 3 QB and so it isn't hard to imagine him being the best.4) I agree that Spiller, Best, and Matthews will have good season. Spiller and Matthews really have no competition for carries and Best shouldn't either as I can't imagine Kevin Smith will be much of a threat coming off his injury this season.5) Naanee and Floyd? I expect Floyd will be more productive but neither of these guys are great long term players--they are role players who may have a chance to start for one year. Gates will be the big winner if VJax holds out.6) Nelson and James? Meh. James has been in the league a while and hasn't cracked starting lineup yet, so Nelson is a better bet IMO, but I see whichever of these two guys starting as the third on the feeding chain behind Jennings and Finley and Driver isn't done yet.7) Vick, Dixon and Wallace and Tebow? Vick will be more involved but unless Kolb gets hurt he will be a situational player this season. Dixon should barely play and won't be a factor. Wallace may be a factor but I don't want him on my fantasy team. Tebow will be a situational player.8) DeSean Jackson has critics? The guy seems pretty dang amazing to me. I didn't realize there was any question that he is a top 10 WR.9) The Matt hierarchy is pretty consistent with most expectations I think...at least my expectations, except for Ryan. He will be right up there with Schaub although Schaub may do better. Ryan is for real and his production historically proves that (see SSOG posting in I think dynasty thread).
Instinctive
Footballguy
No prob, he's my favorite QBkremenull said:
FUBAR
Footballguy
K - I like the way you think despite still getting a good laugh from your "Slaton is better than CJ" post, but what do you mean here? The "critics" of DJax are simply saying he's overvalued, not that he isn't a great WR and better playmaker. He was the 4th most expensive WR in my recent auction, my only criticism is that he isn't worth that much.az_prof said:
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karmarooster
Footballguy
1. Why do I care? There are often valuable fantasy assets on bad teams, and worthless fantasy assets on good teams. See: 2008, Calvin Johnson, 78/1300/12, 0-16. In fantasy, individual players and situations are more important than team success. Beyond that, I tend to agree: Oakland and Detroit will have fantasy worthy players this year, and of course Chicago and Cleveland have situations to target as well. 2. Why do I care? Does this mean all QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs from Miami, SF, Cinci, and Washington are overrated? Should all players on all those teams be avoided or downgraded? Surely too broad of a blanket statement to be useful.3. Rodgers is the consensus QB1 in most drafts this year, whereas last year he was typically the 4th or 5th QB drafted. If he finishes the season as the QB1, where's the value? Better prediction: at current value/ADP, Tony Romo will be a better selection for your team than Aaron Rodgers.4. I agree that Spiller, Best, and Mathews all seem promising, and I also like Best for ROY. However, Mathews is overvalued at this point - I've seen him drafted in the 2nd round of real drafts already, not just mocks. Spiller and Best are much better values than Mathews.5. I agree Nanee is an excellent value, and better value than Floyd at current ADPs, but I think straight up Floyd probably finishes with more fantasy points for the year. Nanee is a solid WR5 for a potential WR3BC. 6. Nelson vs. Jones... this has been going on for 3 years now. Driver remains the WR2. However Finley has just as much a chance of leading GB WRs in fantasy points as Jennings. Neither Nelson or Jones will be startable except in the deepest of leagues unless there's an injury to Jennings or Driver.7. Maybe true, but: If any fantasy owner is forced to start Vick, Dixon, or Wallace, or Tebow, it is likely he doesn't have a playoff caliber team. In Real Life football, i think Vick takes away enough snaps from Kolb to decrease Kolb's value. Tebow and Vick are much better story lines for IRL than fantasy where they are almost worthless (dynasty aside for Tebow). 8. Desean Jackson's biggest impediment to another stellar year doesn't have anything to do with Jackson or Kolb, but instead with Maclin and Celek. Desean might come within 80% of repeating last year's fantasy points, but I do not expect an improvement. Whether or not he's overvalued as a top 10 WR is something I struggle with in almost every draft. Probably a better play in best ball/draftmasters leagues than standard. Also probably over rated in PPR. 9. Agree that Schaub is a stud, and Ryan is overrated.ETA - thought provoking post, btw.kremenull said:
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benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
You're joking right. Chicago went 7-9 last year with almost everything going wrong...Cutler played poorly at times....Forte got hurt early in the season...OL fell apart...Lost Urlacher in the first half of the first game of the season...out coached in most games.Now add in:Cutler with another year to be comfortable and odds are....he won't throw that many INT's this year.Forte has much more burst now that he is healthy(too many people are sleeping on him)OL will be better simply without Pace and Chris Williams at his nature position.WR crew is all back...but they are entering their 2nd, 2nd, 3rd seasons...plus DA and Hester...so they will be better from a pure development perspective.Urlacher will probably play more than one half of one game of football...which will make the D better....even from his leadership of the D.Coaching Staff- New OC Martz, DC Marinelli, OL Tice.....having 3 former HC's on staff is a bonus.Free Agents....Julius Peppers, Chester Taylor...they will make this a much better team and upgrade at those positions(even if Taylor is a backup RB).The Bears only need a few of those things to turn the other way to go 10-6/9-7....they are a minimum 7-9 ballclub.az_prof said:
Yeah- respect for the contrarian approach, but it's hard for a prediction to go any worse than that one.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Take this, reverse it, you winkremenull said:
kremenull
Footballguy
Other than everyone jumping all over Floyd in the 8th Rd now that V-Jax is sidelined, while Naanee (who will outperform him) gets selected 7-8 Rds later.....AND that Dennis Dixon will start at least 75% of the games that Big Ben misses this year......AND that Desean will OUTDO last season's numbers (PPR leagues).......AND at least 2 teams listed in item 1) will make the playoffs......AND Alex Smith will severely hamper Vernon Davis and Crabtree this year.....No need to extrapolate any furtherBut yeah, nothing noteworthily contrarian about these items.It's funny in a way how everyone wants to point to the Slaton-Johnson debate, when they overlook several other "sides of the coin" where decisions were made that made me $$$ in many leagues and garnered me some of the most valuable assets in dynasty leagues......while the masses were jumping on Eddie Royal last year, yeah, don't try to hide now as his ADP was around 22-26 last year, that's overall not position, I was pimping and targeting Desean. And while the consensus was trumping Knowshon, Marion Barber, and McCoy, I was on board with Beanie, Felix, and scooping up Jamaal Charles in redrafts and dynasty at every turn. So before you all remain fixated on a dead issue, as I own a total of 2 Steve Slatons and 1 Chris Johnson amongst my 13 dynasty teams, dig a little further into the bio...
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Mister CIA
Footballguy
I dont have a dog in this fight but seriously, last seasons predictions are the very definition of a whiff-fest.Other than everyone jumping all over Floyd in the 8th Rd now that V-Jax is sidelined, while Naanee (who will outperform him) gets selected 7-8 Rds later.....AND that Dennis Dixon will start at least 75% of the games that Big Ben misses this year......AND that Desean will OUTDO last season's numbers (PPR leagues).......AND at least 2 teams listed in item 1) will make the playoffs......AND Alex Smith will severely hamper Vernon Davis and Crabtree this year.....No need to extrapolate any furtherBut yeah, nothing noteworthily contrarian about these items.
It's funny in a way how everyone wants to point to the Slaton-Johnson debate, when they overlook several other "sides of the coin" where decisions were made that made me $$$ in many leagues and garnered me some of the most valuable assets in dynasty leagues......while the masses were jumping on Eddie Royal last year, yeah, don't try to hide now as his ADP was around 22-26 last year, that's overall not position, I was pimping and targeting Desean. And while the consensus was trumping Knowshon, Marion Barber, and McCoy, I was on board with Beanie, Felix, and scooping up Jamaal Charles in redrafts and dynasty at every turn.
So before you all remain fixated on a dead issue, as I own a total of 2 Steve Slatons and 1 Chris Johnson amongst my 13 dynasty teams, dig a little further into the bio...
Nanee good, Floyd bad. ok
75% on Dixon. Is that 3 games?
Desean will outperform last year. Isn't that the learning curve?
Re; the 2 teams (of 4) in the op you don't say 2 will make the playoffs. You say they will improve NFL and fantasy wise.
And Alex Smith will hamper VD and Crabtree, something we drafters will have taken into acct when we draft said players. I mean, how can we not?
And then you finish with " I didn't buy on Slaton even when I told you to".
And this is your rebuttal? Really?
Most guys are fine with going out on a limb. It's manly and courageous. Just don't take a chainsaw to everyone in sight when it doesn't work out. Just say "bad year" or "I was drunk" or "my ######ed girlfriend posted that without my knowledge" or some such and work on next year. Cause it's got to look better than this.
kremenull
Footballguy
LOL! OK, bad year on my out on a limb predictions last year. Anyway, there are several instances where you take one side of the other, some where you can be neutral. I'm typically not a neutral guy but have learned that in this fantasy game, you can actually remain neutral until further information is gathered. But I don't usually take this path as the window to get players who you really believe may be superstar producers, is often very narrow. With CJ and Slaton, I stepped out and chose the wrong option. You know what, it happens. Just like this year, someone is going to choose the lesser option of the trio of RBs in this year's class. In the end, you keep it moving and make it work regardless. But back to the topic at hand. I see that most are not that impressed with either Naanee or Jordy, two of my favorite sleepers. I actually think it is quite possible for these guys to become very relevant in fantasy terms, and that it is not inconceivable for Jordy to surpass Greg Jennings, or at least come up very close to his level (similar to what Driver has produced in some years) once Driver exits and/or declines. As early as 2011, and he could surprise this year. I'm not banking on it, but I would not be shocked.
As for Naanee, if V-Jax never suits up again for the Bolts, I believe Naanee will be their #1 WR for at least a couple of seasons. Sure, Gates is still there and would technically be their #1 pass catching option, but the value of a Naanee would be well worthwhile given his acquisition price as of today.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
This is brutal.
kremenull
Footballguy
Yeah, pretty bad outcome on some of these, but I don't know about brutal. Keep in mind, some of these have yet to fully play out. Especially considering most guys sit on the fence as "looky-loos", non-committal either way, following the herd, and then they take a look back as a revisionist and shout that they were all aboard from the onset on all the right calls, knowing that they simply followed the masses.Sabertooth said:
Power Monster
The Midnight Stalker
Keep in mind that this OL is the same cast of stiffs that the team had last year. If there is not a positive change w this unit- Cutler is going to get a beat down and the running game will be stuck in another miserable season.I fail to see how Cutler is going to be more comfortable learning yet another offensive system. The same holds true with the receivers.I think the defense will be greatly improved if this crew can stay healthy but I am tempering expectations with the offense.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Well aware that it is almost the same players. But Chris Williams now has a full year of starting under his belt and now is strictly at his natural LT position. Omiyale has more experience under his belt now. Plus Tice is a much better OL coach. They will be better than last year.Cutler will have more work with the WR's than last year....that's a given....he knows them better now. Martz>Turner.....therefore Cutler will be in a better system and so will the WR's.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
1. Chicago takes 4th place in the division 
2. Jay Cutler plays for another team in 2013.
2. Jay Cutler plays for another team in 2013.
FUBAR
Footballguy
But here are my facts......I EVALUATE TALENT, VERY WELL. To borrow the monikor from a fellow respected league mate.......FOLLOW ME!......
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
And Sabertooth is an ignorant Packers fan.I would be willing to take bets on 4th in the division btw.1. Chicago takes 4th place in the division
Instinctive
Footballguy
Actually, I wouldn't be THAT surprised if they were 4th. I see GB and MIN as playoff teams, clearly the best defenses with great offenses to boot.And I think DET is shaping up to have a deadly offense as well, so they could be 3rd.Not necessarily my prediction, but definitely wouldn't surprise me either.And Sabertooth is an ignorant Packers fan.I would be willing to take bets on 4th in the division btw.1. Chicago takes 4th place in the division2. Jay Cutler plays for another team in 2013.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I see that....but you do realize they added two Pro Bowl/Potential HOF defenders in the offseason....Peppers and Urlacher(missed all of last season but less than 1/2 of 1 game). That will make this team much much better....and they were already 7-9. U expect worse than that for 2010?GB won't have the same turnover ratio or near perfect Rodgers play......and Minny could be without Favre(altho chicago did beat them with Favre last year).Actually, I wouldn't be THAT surprised if they were 4th. I see GB and MIN as playoff teams, clearly the best defenses with great offenses to boot.And I think DET is shaping up to have a deadly offense as well, so they could be 3rd.Not necessarily my prediction, but definitely wouldn't surprise me either.And Sabertooth is an ignorant Packers fan.I would be willing to take bets on 4th in the division btw.1. Chicago takes 4th place in the division2. Jay Cutler plays for another team in 2013.
:X 
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Somewhere, probably in an alternate universe, the Bizarro kremenull is kicking ### in all his leagues.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
I am really bothered you gave Best so high praise. I feel like I gotta avoid/sell him in all my leagues now.... Thanks!
kremenull
Footballguy
Bolded above is LOCK CITY! Rodgers simply throws darts with laser precision.......40 TDs a distinct possibility here.
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destro
Footballguy
I'm not convinced we should respect contrarian approaches simply because they are contrary to popular opinion. I will respect a contrarian opinion when it is well-reasoned and well-supported. I can't really pretend that I am impressed by a guy who makes a bunch of "from the gut" contrarian shots in the SP like this, because these always seem to be an attempt at getting attention and hoping you seem really smart when some of them break your way. That did not occur this time. The SP is full of threads or individual posts like this, and I just kind of feel like it's some kind of weird fantasy sports machismo. This is the kind of post that Josh McDaniels would make if he managed a fantasy football team instead of a real one. I mean, I guess I can respect that he is bumping his train wreck of a post and taking his lumps, but I guess I don't feel any additional respect should be gained simply by making off-the-wall predictions without much basis, whether they are right or wrong.
kremenull
Footballguy
I'm not really bothered by your comment(s). But I would bet almost anything that I have been high on Best far longer than 95+% of you all. I saw him play in H.S. as a Jr. and also followed him closely at Cal. And after his Soph season, I already invoked a Barry Sanders comparison........and meant it.....I'm sure that many of you are the same guys in a league or two of mine out there in cyber-space (net).....that other universe Donnybrook is referring to.....
Do you get any bonus points in your leagues based on how long you've liked a guy? Because in most of my leagues, Jahvid Best scores the same number of points for me whether I just discovered him the day before the rookie draft, watched him play in high school, or personally circumcised him at his bris.I'm not really bothered by your comment(s). But I would bet almost anything that I have been high on Best far longer than 95+% of you all. I saw him play in H.S. as a Jr. and also followed him closely at Cal. And after his Soph season, I already invoked a Barry Sanders comparison........and meant it.....I'm sure that many of you are the same guys in a league or two of mine out there in cyber-space (net).....that other universe Donnybrook is referring to.....
destro
Footballguy
Is it just me, or is anyone else having a hard time distinguishing this post from gianmarco's sig?I'm not really bothered by your comment(s). But I would bet almost anything that I have been high on Best far longer than 95+% of you all. I saw him play in H.S. as a Jr. and also followed him closely at Cal. And after his Soph season, I already invoked a Barry Sanders comparison........and meant it.....I'm sure that many of you are the same guys in a league or two of mine out there in cyber-space (net).....that other universe Donnybrook is referring to.....
kremenull
Footballguy
No bonus points. But when you (anyone, not referring to you, specifically, unless the shoe fits) think that I'm responsible for any player's failure or success because I endorse them, then you are delusional. I simply come in here and state what I think, take it FWIW. If you agree or disagree, no problem. But for those that want to ridicule, just step up and prove your mettle.And to some degree, yes, it does matter how long (or early) that you've been high on someone because if you are in a league with me (and guys like me, who draft early and/or play in college/devy leagues), you will probably never get a Jahvid Best if you're late to the party..........unless you want to pay top premium by being late. BUY LOW, SELL HIGH.....Better yet, EVALUATE WELL, EARLY!.......I'm ready for someDo you get any bonus points in your leagues based on how long you've liked a guy? Because in most of my leagues, Jahvid Best scores the same number of points for me whether I just discovered him the day before the rookie draft, watched him play in high school, or personally circumcised him at his bris.I'm not really bothered by your comment(s). But I would bet almost anything that I have been high on Best far longer than 95+% of you all. I saw him play in H.S. as a Jr. and also followed him closely at Cal. And after his Soph season, I already invoked a Barry Sanders comparison........and meant it.....I'm sure that many of you are the same guys in a league or two of mine out there in cyber-space (net).....that other universe Donnybrook is referring to.....
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So giving krem the extreme benefit of the doubt:
Definitely not happening. Not even close. Terrible.
Grant, Benson, Thomas -- almost definite missesWard, Parker, Westbrook, LJ, LT, Smith -- hitsBarber, Addai, Portis -- on the fenceThis wasn't a very bold claim, but we could give credit for being right or close to it.
As was pointed out, this is just betting the field so obviously is not a bold claim at all, but it was correct.
Generously could be considered 'undecided'. But we have seen no evidence of it yet and nothing to indicate that it will be even remotely true.
Could again generously consider it to be 'undecided' but again there is not even a shred of evidence pointing in this direction so far.So bottom line, he should have just posted this useless crap in one of the 'post three pieces of useless crap here' threads? Thanks, krem!
