I refuse to hitch a ride on the Mike Bell wagon until I see him in the pre-season. If he looks really good, and his starting is indeed legit, than by all means. But right now, for all we know, he'll be the starter for the 1st pre-season game and fall behind Dayne and never be heard from again.
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Thinking of taking M.Bell late Rd 4 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LawFitz
- Start date
brakeyawself
Footballguy
Yea. Not to mention these HIGHLY drafted rookies.Lawrence Phillips
Ki-Jana Carter (#1 pick)
Curtis Enis
Blair Thomas
Ron Dayne
actually, check out this draft history page, and you'll see wierd things. Number one picks mostly work out if they are QBs. Meanwhile if you research the drafts, you'll see you can find value anywhere really. Lots of busts, lots of Suprises.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/ones
Browns Rule!
Footballguy
I'm sorry, but drafting Mike Bell in the 4th is the craziest idea I've heard. I'd say his percentages are like this for the year:
25 % chance - he doesn't make the team
15 % chance - he starts the season the starter
40 % chance - he is the last RB on the roster and next to never sees the field.
20 % chance - all other scenarios
25 % chance - he doesn't make the team
15 % chance - he starts the season the starter
40 % chance - he is the last RB on the roster and next to never sees the field.
20 % chance - all other scenarios
broncofan13000
Footballguy
Unless he goes in a total tailspin, he's a lock to make the team imho.
LawFitz, Nobody is disaggreeing with you that Mike Bell has the potential to have a great year if they really give him the chance to start the season. He just has more value if you wait. He will be available in the 7th or 8th round of a 10 team league. If you just wait and take him then he doesn't hurt you as bad if he doesn't play a game.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Don't draft a guy any higher than you have to. I find it hard to believe that anyone other than Bell's family is considering drafting him that early.
Unless Bell's mom is in your league, don't blow more than a 6th round pick on him.
Unless Bell's mom is in your league, don't blow more than a 6th round pick on him.
Getinthemix
Footballguy
I think you might be taking a page out of my playbook and overthinking this.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
what he said.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Probably.Mostly, I think I'm feelin snake bitten for trying to "maximize value" by waiting an extra round for Larry Johnson last year. I took Arrington in Rd 5 b/c he was the safer pick (similar early draft) in the thought that Johnson would slide one more round to 6. Needless to say that didn't happen and I lost in the playoffs to the guy that took LJ.I'm not saying that MB = LJ. All I'm saying is sometimes if you really want a guy, you should just take him a round early.
Lightning Fast Whip
Footballguy
Tatum Bell fell to pick #57 in my draft last night.
Thank You to Shanahan for this diversion.
Thank You to Shanahan for this diversion.
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
I'm also facing a similar situation in my 12-man league. I have the 11th pick, and the guy that I KNOW wil be scoping out the Denver RB situation is drafting in slot #1. This is the same guy that -- LAST YEAR -- drafted Mike Anderson and Larry Johnson in the 2nd and 3rd rounds!! This clearly shows the level of confidence that he takes with his gut-feelings, and his willingness to act early on a high-risk high-reward. We're drafting this weekend, so the dataset will be what we know through Sunday mid-day.
I say that to say that I am also feeling pressure to take a Den RB (M Bell or R Dayne) earlier than I would have been able last week. I'm either going RB-WR or RB-RB with my first 2 picks, depending on how things shake out. Likewise, picks 3.11 and 4.02 seem to be best served with RB-WR or WR-WR considering my league's drafting tendencies. We start 2RB and 3WR (no TE, no ppr) and I'm wondering if:
A) will either of those guys be there at the 3/4 turn, and
B) would it make sense to take one of these guys as my RB2 over a C. Taylor / Dunn / Foster or a (potential) top-15 WR as my WR3, like R Williams / R Wayne / D Jax.
I know I'll have to let this draft come to me before I can get too far into it, but am not sure I feel good taking M Bell this early. Up until a few days ago, I was happy taking Dayne at 4.02 but now I feel like the 5/6 turn is now the "value spot" for these guys due to the current confusion.
I don't know if this rambling helps, but just wanted to throw another person's current view / struggle with this situation out there.
TOADS
I say that to say that I am also feeling pressure to take a Den RB (M Bell or R Dayne) earlier than I would have been able last week. I'm either going RB-WR or RB-RB with my first 2 picks, depending on how things shake out. Likewise, picks 3.11 and 4.02 seem to be best served with RB-WR or WR-WR considering my league's drafting tendencies. We start 2RB and 3WR (no TE, no ppr) and I'm wondering if:
A) will either of those guys be there at the 3/4 turn, and
B) would it make sense to take one of these guys as my RB2 over a C. Taylor / Dunn / Foster or a (potential) top-15 WR as my WR3, like R Williams / R Wayne / D Jax.
I know I'll have to let this draft come to me before I can get too far into it, but am not sure I feel good taking M Bell this early. Up until a few days ago, I was happy taking Dayne at 4.02 but now I feel like the 5/6 turn is now the "value spot" for these guys due to the current confusion.
I don't know if this rambling helps, but just wanted to throw another person's current view / struggle with this situation out there.
TOADS
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LawFitz
Footballguy
Toads,I'm picking 3rd in a 10 teamer. The difference between my 4 & 5 picks is two teams and 4 slots. The difference between my 5 & 6 picks are 7 teams and 14 slots. I think if I try to wait until 6.8 to take him, he will likely be gone.Therefore if I really want to secure him, I think round 5 is the way to go for my particular draft slot. Problem is like your situation, the guy in my league picking at 4.10 and 5.1 is a notorious Donkie running game whore. I could easily see him taking Bell/Bell on the 4/5 turn. Since the other guy I want at the 4/5 spots is Driver, I think if I'm going to commit to M Bell in Rd 5, I might as well step him up to Rd 4 ahead of the aforementioned donkie whore and risk Driver for 4 more slots.Is there a chance he falls to 6.8 if I let him. Yes. IMO, tho not a great chance. Again, going into my draft he is the widely known starter for DEN. That will make him an early target for those who think they might steal a 1st rd RB.Especially after Larry Johnson and Mike Anderson went so late last year, I know the guys in my league will be fishing this year.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Keyword "fishing". Don't be "the guy". I'm sure there are a lot better picks in the 4th round. Besides, it's not like he will get the goal line carries if he is the starter, that will probably go to Dayne. I guarantee you that Tatum Bell will get at a minimum the same number of carries as last year. You can do better in the 4th round than Mike Bell.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
At some point (maybe even very soon) he may prove me wrong, but I gave up on T Bell a long time ago. COP is all I see him ever being in this offense. And if he continues the pouty attitude, he may not even get those reps.That being said, 6th round is a good risk if you're still high on the guy.
Lightning Fast Whip
Footballguy
Even in COP role he was almost 1000 yards and 8TDs. If he falls out of Top 50 picks it becomes a no risk play even if you don't believe he can be a full time RB. And there are teams who might trade for him too. If DD can't get well I could see Kubiak calling up his old boss and asking if a 3rd rounder would be enough to get a RB who knows Kubiaks system. Or Jets could use him..as well as other teams. My point is the downside risk is ridiculously low compared to upside once he falls to late 50s in a draft.
That's not a very good value at all. Sorry. I think he starts to become a decent value at around #75-#80. He'll never get the goalline carries, so his value will always be limited
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
I agree, mid 5th round for Tatum after the demotion does not represent value, imo.
Lightning Fast Whip
Footballguy
What demotion? He's in same role as he was last year. Same #2 RB spot he was last week. Value limited because of role limiting TDs?...8TDs last year...as part timer. Some full time RBs get less than that. In fact there are a few going in first couple rounds who didn't have 8 TDs last year.
Lightning Fast Whip
Footballguy
Tatum 8 rushing TDs
Steven Jackson 8
Cadillac Williams 6
McGahee 5
Julius Jones 5
Kevin Jones 5
Ronnie Brown 4
Willie Parker 4
Jamal Lewis 3
I know a number of those have brighter prospects of improving TD totals this season. But lets keep in mind 8 TDs rushing was 13th- 15th best in the league last season
Steven Jackson 8
Cadillac Williams 6
McGahee 5
Julius Jones 5
Kevin Jones 5
Ronnie Brown 4
Willie Parker 4
Jamal Lewis 3
I know a number of those have brighter prospects of improving TD totals this season. But lets keep in mind 8 TDs rushing was 13th- 15th best in the league last season
It's not that I think you grossly overpaid for Tatum at #57, but you seemed rather shocked that he was there that late and suggested Shanahan was just trying to motivate him w/ his recent comments. We saw last year w/ Anderson starting all year that it was more than just a threat, and that Shanny truly does not view him as a starting back. If I'm picking in the mid 5th, I probably look to grab a solid WR and gamble a round or two later w/ a DeAngelo Williams/Laurence Maroney type who, if promoted to the starting role, could be a monster and would likely get the goalline carries as well.
M
MLBrandow
Guest
Tatum Bell is trash.I'm waiting for someone to say "And Ron Dayne isn't?"To that I say, "and Ron Dayne put him on the bench all offseason until this guy showed up."
Lightning Fast Whip
Footballguy
Yes, I'm shocked Tatum has dropped out of Top 50 because some undrafted Rookie passed Dayne. Most of us didn't think much of Dayne to start with....and have heard from Shanahan he believes Tatum is a 12 carry back. But even at 12 carries he is worth a 50th pick...and if he changes Shanahans mind by even 3 or 4 carries a game which is possible or gets traded to a team that will give him 5 more carries a game he'll be a huge steal outside of Top 50. Does Shanahan promoting Mike into Daynes spot warrant Tatum dropping by almost 2 rounds. No way.
The Jerk
Footballguy
Demotion is probably not my word choice, either. However, I agree with the connotation that the emergence of Mike Bell in Denver in no way, shape or form is good news for Tatum Bell owners or drafters. It all could be a coaching ploy, but I see less of that in Shanahan than most posters on this forum.Anyway, "demotion" refers to the literal comments that Mike Bell is running with the first team at least for now. Perhaps it also refers to the change in perception over the offseason. When Mike Anderson left the Broncos, Tatum Bell's stock rose. Now with Mike Bell's emergence, his stock falls back down. It's all speculation, but there's no denying that the backfield is more crowded today than it was a few weeks ago.
Fair point, but are you suggesting that he is a lock for 8+ TD's again this year? He only had 173 carries last year. He did VERY well with those limited carries (and TD's are hard to predict anyway). If he IS named the starter, you would have to look at him in the early 2nd, so from that perspective I like the risk/reward in the 5th round. The problem is, it doesn't seem like Shanny is going to give him the nod. There have been no signs at all of Tatum being named the #1 RB. I would rather take a gamble on another RB a round or two later (as previously mentioned). Also, when do you actually start him if he is not the starter? You may catch a really big week, or he may hardly play at all. Because of that, I think the 5th is too early to grab him. I'll take a productive QB or WR there. In the 7th would be perfect, though.
Lightning Fast Whip
Footballguy
I'm saying 8Tds was what he got..and his rate of TDs per carry wasn't that far out of line with his previous year 1 TD per 25 Carries (3TDs in 75 carries..then 8 Tds in 173). Short limited touch career but this guy has been a over a TD per 25 carries in his career and 5.3 ypc average both years too. Nothing he did last year was out of line for his talent and skill level. 200 carries (i.e. 12.5 per game) would produce similar production to last year imo. If traded TDs might be harder to come by behind a less talented O-Line but then he'd be in a featured role and be getting more carries as well.
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Lightning Fast Whip
Footballguy
I'm denying it's anymore crowded. Mike Bell was there. Ron Dayne was there. Tatum Bell was there. Cecil was there. Cobb was there etc etc Tatum hasn't changed Shanahans mind about the 12 carry thing. Mike was better than Ron. Tatum complained because he's trying to change the 12 carry perception. Nothings changed regarding Tatum imo. Shanahan knows he has a Top notch COP back and for 10-14 carries a game he's still planning on using him. Tatum and agent can accept this and keep working to change Shanahans mind or start making waves about opportunities elsewhere.
The Jerk
Footballguy
I don't put much stock into the running order during the first ten days of August, but all things being equal, when the coach elevates a previously anonymous RB to the top of the depth chart, and reports by guys like Cecil Lammey tell us that Mike Bell looks like the best RB in camp, and he's got a cut once and bust it up running style, I'd say something has changed and that the backfield is more crowded.Believe what you want. You could be right. I just don't see how anyone can say that Tatum Bell is not potentially adversely affected by Mike Bell's training camp emergence. I find your degree of confidence (or is it closed-mindedness) concerning the situation interesting.
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
Guys, are your memories really that short?
Just last month, you guys were lining up to sing Ron Dayne's praises (Denver is perfect for him... he played in that system in college... blah, blah, blah). Then a week or two ago, it was Cedric Cobbs (
) who was the FBGs darling. This week it's Mike Bell. Did you not learn that the oven is still hot?
There's is absolutely no freaking way I'm touching a Denver RB this year unless the value is disgusting. In dynasty leagues, that means 3rd or 4th round. Redraft, the 8th round?
Before I get all the "Denver RBs are gold" and "you have to take chances" sob stories, remember that you won't win jack if your RB doesn't play. And with Shanahan monkeying with his RB pecking order on a daily basis, my advice is to stay far, far away.
There's my
Just last month, you guys were lining up to sing Ron Dayne's praises (Denver is perfect for him... he played in that system in college... blah, blah, blah). Then a week or two ago, it was Cedric Cobbs (
) who was the FBGs darling. This week it's Mike Bell. Did you not learn that the oven is still hot?There's is absolutely no freaking way I'm touching a Denver RB this year unless the value is disgusting. In dynasty leagues, that means 3rd or 4th round. Redraft, the 8th round?
Before I get all the "Denver RBs are gold" and "you have to take chances" sob stories, remember that you won't win jack if your RB doesn't play. And with Shanahan monkeying with his RB pecking order on a daily basis, my advice is to stay far, far away.
There's my
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Kit Fisto
Footballguy
Let someone else reach.Lightning Fast Whip
Footballguy
Maybe you should look at it as Dayne just wasn't as good as some want to keep believing. Looked at from that angle it actually could be viewed as it got less crowded as Daynes taken a step backwards again. Now Shanahan wants to see if someone else can take a part of RBBC so he doesn't have to change his mind about Tatums role. If Bell can't hold up during this audition then doesn't it put Tatum that much closer to more opportunity if his competitors can't stay in their roles? I don't see any of these guys as a Threatto Tatum 12 carries...the only question is if any of them are competent enough to keep Tatum from getting 15+ carries. And once Tatum is falling out of Top 50 picks he doesn't need anything more than 12 carries to have value...15 carries makes him a steal.
Lightning Fast Whip
Footballguy
7th round talk is just silly. Do you say that about Julius,C Brown,Cadillac? About Ronnie Brown,Jamal Lewis,Deshaun Foster? Only C Brown might be available in the 7th round. In non ppr scoring Tatum fell between those two groups last year. He was a Top 25 back as a part timer on lower end of a RBBC. He's worth better than a 7th rounder even if his role doesn't improve. And if you are in leagues that let him slide to 7th round I think you need to improve the quality of competition.
Edit- to correct list of RB around Tatum..had to remove team bonus points from their list. Tatum #22 in 2005 according to pro-football-reference
Edit- to correct list of RB around Tatum..had to remove team bonus points from their list. Tatum #22 in 2005 according to pro-football-reference
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Lightning Fast Whip
Footballguy
Just for fun and to irritate some
250 carries for 935 yards and 3 TDs
248 carries for 1317 yards and 11 TDs
Both of these guys were considered only Change of Pace backs. First one had been in the league 3 years. Second one in the league for 2 years. They do have a connection regarding the guy who was suppose to be the Man in their next season.
250 carries for 935 yards and 3 TDs
248 carries for 1317 yards and 11 TDs
Both of these guys were considered only Change of Pace backs. First one had been in the league 3 years. Second one in the league for 2 years. They do have a connection regarding the guy who was suppose to be the Man in their next season.
Delusions Of Adequacy
Footballguy
FIXED
