Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
Nothing wrong with your logic, except Mendenhall is the better RB.
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Those high 1st round picks in Dyansty are losing a lot of steam (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
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lord_helmet
Footballguy
If you say so it must be true..Fast Willie has proven he can get it done, what has Williams proven ? Clearly Stewart is the guy to take at #2 IMO.
kremenull
Footballguy
Exactly
I don't see what the big concern is over most of these players, especially the Top 3. We all knew that there weren't a whole lot of starting gigs immediately available for guys to just walk in and be the starter.....So what!!......Nobody ever said that these guys were guaranteed to go to Den, Hou, or wherever....In the end, the cream always rises and these guys will get a chance, at some point, to make their mark. There currently are a plethora of RBs in the NFL, and every team is looking to stockpile at least 2-3 good ones as injuries are happening at an alarming rate due to the increase in size and speed of all the defenders......This is just the landscape now.......so fantasy folks now must come to grips with the fact that there aren't many workhorse RB teams now.......it's moving very quickly to the two-headed monster, where probably 80%-90% of the league will be doing this by next year........
EastBayFunk
Footballguy
I wouldn't be disappointed. I actually like most of these landing spots.
McFadden will start as a rookie.
Forte will have a good chance to start as a rookie.
Stewart and Mendenhall will be starting by year two at the latest.
Jones and Johnson will share carries and potentially grow into starting roles if they impress.
About the only RB whose stock dipped was Rice.
McFadden will start as a rookie.
Forte will have a good chance to start as a rookie.
Stewart and Mendenhall will be starting by year two at the latest.
Jones and Johnson will share carries and potentially grow into starting roles if they impress.
About the only RB whose stock dipped was Rice.
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
I'll respectfully disagree. To me, Mendenhall is the clear #2, and potentially #1.
Kleck
Footballguy
Parker has 2 years left on his contract. If you can wait a couple of years, Mendenhall may lock up a 300+ carry job. Or maybe sooner if he's as good as I believe he is.
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lord_helmet
Footballguy
You must know something I don't.
LessThanZero
Footballguy
The argument that RBBC -- or, at least, drafting a backup RB high when you have a stud -- is nothing new, while true, doesn't really address the comments about this rookie draft being unique.
This might just be selective memory, but I can't remember a year in my 8-10 years of dynasty play where there wasn't a single top rookie RB who obviously had the inside track on the starting job the instant he was drafted. This year there is only one, McFadden, and that's somewhat arguable given the crowded Oakland backfield. Factor in the complete mess at WR and the somewhat messy QBs, and it will make this year's dynasty drafts more variable than any I can remember. McFadden's the consensus #1. After that, who knows -- the next 3-4 RBs can arguably be picked in any order, the WRs will be all over the place, and even the QB order can vary widely. It's a unique situation.
Personally, I've got the #3 and #8 picks overall and I'm really scratching my head at this point. I'm fairly lucky in that I'm pretty stacked and young, so I afford to just draft straight best player, or feel out trades, or whatever, but still. Particularly disappointed with how the QBs shook out. Not entirely sold on Ryan (particularly in Atlanta), especially not sold on Flacco. Brohm was my favorite particularly because I expected him to fall fairly low and I think he'll be the best of the class in the long-run; was hoping he would end up somewhere like Detroit/Chicago/TB/Minnesota etc where he'd be the obvious starter in waiting, but would probably get a year or so to learn the playbook before taking the reigns, but instead he goes to Green Bay to back up or challenge Rodgers... who I've had sitting on my reserve squad for years, just waiting for Favre to retire.
Before the draft, I figured I'd get someone like Mendenhall at #3 going to a team that needed a starter, and could maybe trade down from the #8 to the early-mid second, pick up another 2nd, and get Brohm and a WR prospect. Now I have no idea whether I want Brohm more or less than before (and given our league is located in Wisconsin, I have no idea whether his stock shoots up with Packers homers either). I still like Mendenhall as the #2 RB in this class, maybe even #1 -- but now I'm wondering whether I can move down and still get him.
It should throw a lot of kinks into rookie drafts, resulting in more trades, and probably more picks that will look like ridiculous busts in retrospect 5 years from now.
Just happy I didn't pay a ton for the #3; got it in an early season trade last year, so I was happy it ended up being as high as it was. Time to start seeing if anyone's interested in it...
This might just be selective memory, but I can't remember a year in my 8-10 years of dynasty play where there wasn't a single top rookie RB who obviously had the inside track on the starting job the instant he was drafted. This year there is only one, McFadden, and that's somewhat arguable given the crowded Oakland backfield. Factor in the complete mess at WR and the somewhat messy QBs, and it will make this year's dynasty drafts more variable than any I can remember. McFadden's the consensus #1. After that, who knows -- the next 3-4 RBs can arguably be picked in any order, the WRs will be all over the place, and even the QB order can vary widely. It's a unique situation.
Personally, I've got the #3 and #8 picks overall and I'm really scratching my head at this point. I'm fairly lucky in that I'm pretty stacked and young, so I afford to just draft straight best player, or feel out trades, or whatever, but still. Particularly disappointed with how the QBs shook out. Not entirely sold on Ryan (particularly in Atlanta), especially not sold on Flacco. Brohm was my favorite particularly because I expected him to fall fairly low and I think he'll be the best of the class in the long-run; was hoping he would end up somewhere like Detroit/Chicago/TB/Minnesota etc where he'd be the obvious starter in waiting, but would probably get a year or so to learn the playbook before taking the reigns, but instead he goes to Green Bay to back up or challenge Rodgers... who I've had sitting on my reserve squad for years, just waiting for Favre to retire.
Before the draft, I figured I'd get someone like Mendenhall at #3 going to a team that needed a starter, and could maybe trade down from the #8 to the early-mid second, pick up another 2nd, and get Brohm and a WR prospect. Now I have no idea whether I want Brohm more or less than before (and given our league is located in Wisconsin, I have no idea whether his stock shoots up with Packers homers either). I still like Mendenhall as the #2 RB in this class, maybe even #1 -- but now I'm wondering whether I can move down and still get him.
It should throw a lot of kinks into rookie drafts, resulting in more trades, and probably more picks that will look like ridiculous busts in retrospect 5 years from now.
Just happy I didn't pay a ton for the #3; got it in an early season trade last year, so I was happy it ended up being as high as it was. Time to start seeing if anyone's interested in it...
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Sounds to me like you're simply parroting what other uninformed people have been saying.The Raiders ran the ball well last year, mainly with a guy who many thought to be injury prone, soft and painfully average.
PM me for the definitive answer on this one.
FUBAR
Footballguy
People are overreacting here, big time.Sweed and Nelson will get their shot in 2-3 years, about the same time many WRs start to really learn the game. They get to learn behind two of the better WRs in the league. At least Sweed gets to play with one of the best young QBs in the league, Nelson's might be ok too. For those with a longer view for WRs, you don't get a much better spot than Pittsburgh.Washington's picks seem weird, almost like Snyder is playing too much Madden. Agreed on Hardy.Avery will help as a 3rd WR, but you're right that he was a big time surprise as the 1st WR taken.Jackson, Royal, and Simpson all hit great spots. It is somewhat of a "mess", in that none of the 9 truly stand above the rest for talent + immediate opportunity + long term prospects, but those holding 2nd round picks should be
(I agree with the premise of the thread though, the high 1sts are 
)
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Sounds like a good time to buy the draft picks
Why on earth would you have done that?
Armor & Sword
Footballguy
Lot's of depth in this draft. Only a couple of impact offensive rookies this year...but injuries can push more into that role as well.
You draft for the future and depth. If you hit on a impact rookie...all the better. remember some guys you may end up taking in the 2nd round, 3rd round or off the WW can be diamonds in the rough too. Antonio Gates, Colston, and Wille Parker anyone?
It is a crap shoot.
You draft for the future and depth. If you hit on a impact rookie...all the better. remember some guys you may end up taking in the 2nd round, 3rd round or off the WW can be diamonds in the rough too. Antonio Gates, Colston, and Wille Parker anyone?
It is a crap shoot.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Yep, I have one starting Monday and one starting the week after. I know people say this is the way to do it anyway, but especially this year - forget the NFL draft just happened and go into the rookie draft with your pre-draft rankings and draft on talent.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
This is a good point. Now's a good time for the owners with patience to come in and get some of the rookie picks and wait on them to develop, esp the WRs and QBs as people really seem to beSounds like a good time to buy the draft picks
about the situations.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Exactly!
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Good point. I think Forte is a good example of the overreaction. Most people had him 8-9 pre-draft and now folks are saying he could be 1.04??? That screams Eric Shelton v.2 to me, esp since the Bears aren't that great of a run block team anyway. It's not like went to Denver.
mdog1967
Footballguy
1. Stewart 2008 Starter 70-30 split - 2009 75/25 split2. Forte 2008 Starter (Hes gotta beat out Benson?)3. Mendenhall 2009 starter4. Rice -2/3rs5. Felix Jones6. Chris Johnson7?8. DMAC he's gonna make a great kick returner.Seriously guys quit drinking the DMAC Kool Aid. Stewart is your number one dynasty pick.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Kevin Smith, Central Florida...just became a top3 pick in Dynasty? top5 for sure
EBF
Footballguy
Top 5? Maybe.Top 3? No way. You don't pass on first round prospects for third round prospects. That doesn't mean it isn't sometimes the correct move in hindsight (Frank Gore comes to mind), but the odds aren't in your favor. You have to be drinking the Smith Kool-Aid big time to take him over one of the top 3-4 backs. Smith to Detroit is very good news for FF owners though. One more starting rookie RB with a chance to make an early impact. The value of 1.05-1.07 just went up.
EBF
Footballguy
I thought Mendenhall was probably the safest pick of the bunch going into the draft and I think I still feel that way. Pittsburgh has a great track record with first round picks. Go and check their recent history. They don't miss very often. Mendenhall will eventually inherit a starting job in a great organization for a team that's going to score a lot of points. I don't see how you can be anything but happy about that. Unless he's a total bust, he's going to develop into a top 10 FF back.
womb
Footballguy
Timmons?? Oh wait he was injured most of the year and the first time he is on the field he injures RW for the year and then again does nothing the rest of the year.
EBF
Footballguy
HolmesMiller
Roethlisberger
Polamalu
Simmons
Hampton
Burress
Edwards
Faneca
You're not going to find many teams with a better track record in the first round.
Timmons has been in the league for one year. That's not long enough to form an opinion of his merits.
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
Loseing Kiffin wont hurt DMac's value. He's Al Davis's pick. Better situation than Reggie Bush. Simuliar situation to Peterson actually. Not quite as good a line as in Minny but I see less resistance between DMac and the starting job in Oakland.
Like you, I think that Mendenhall is in a better situation than credited for. I was never sold on the long term prospects of Parker. This is an immediate RBBC with a strong opportunity to become a full time starter down the road for a team that can produce great rushing numbers. My #2 pick for sure.
I've stood by DWill the past couple years. Its obvious Carolina isnt happy without a power back to contribute. They stuck with Steven Davis as long as he could still run. They stuck with Foster until they could no longer afford him. The question is do they show the same loyalty to DWill now or do they show the same loyalty to power rushing. I'm at the point where I'd like to see DWill get traded. Unlikely. Immediate and semi-permanent RBBC for Stewart. Yet I have to make him the #3 pick because of his potential and likelyhood to at least produce FF backup numbers.
A couple guys picked already are more role-players than starters. So what? We see them drafted every year just not usually before the tail-end of round 1. We still have the usual amount of stud prospects comeing from the first round. 3 is pretty normal. Now we consider the balance between drafting a role-player likely to get time (with still potential to start in the perfect system) and more starter like prospects in other situations.
One thing is for sure, I'm not drafting a WR yet. I'm rarely as high on rookie recievers as other FFers but I might not touch one for long time this year. I tend to be higher on rookie QBs and Ryan might be my 4th pick in this draft.
Like you, I think that Mendenhall is in a better situation than credited for. I was never sold on the long term prospects of Parker. This is an immediate RBBC with a strong opportunity to become a full time starter down the road for a team that can produce great rushing numbers. My #2 pick for sure.
I've stood by DWill the past couple years. Its obvious Carolina isnt happy without a power back to contribute. They stuck with Steven Davis as long as he could still run. They stuck with Foster until they could no longer afford him. The question is do they show the same loyalty to DWill now or do they show the same loyalty to power rushing. I'm at the point where I'd like to see DWill get traded. Unlikely. Immediate and semi-permanent RBBC for Stewart. Yet I have to make him the #3 pick because of his potential and likelyhood to at least produce FF backup numbers.
A couple guys picked already are more role-players than starters. So what? We see them drafted every year just not usually before the tail-end of round 1. We still have the usual amount of stud prospects comeing from the first round. 3 is pretty normal. Now we consider the balance between drafting a role-player likely to get time (with still potential to start in the perfect system) and more starter like prospects in other situations.
One thing is for sure, I'm not drafting a WR yet. I'm rarely as high on rookie recievers as other FFers but I might not touch one for long time this year. I tend to be higher on rookie QBs and Ryan might be my 4th pick in this draft.
mdog1967
Footballguy
I could be completely wrong but I think anyone remotely thinking that - 1. DMAC is going to be anything like AD really needs to view these guys on tape again. DMAC goes one direction, straight. Does not break tackles and has very little lateral movement, no wiggle. 2. Fargas is still the Superior all around Running Back, not talent, running back. I predict the first game DMAC is on the Field he is going to get pancaked in the Backfield on at least a play or two during pass protection. He is going to wonder were the ball went as the DB is running the other direction for a defensive TD. Lets not forget this guys fumbling issues and ball security are as prolific as his speed.1. I think Stewart is the better pick at 1.01 in Rookie Dynasty drafts, I'm not touching DMAC at all. I not going to draft Devin Hester as my WR and Im not going to pick a Return man as my RB.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Slaton should fly up the boards now.
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
Maybe you are just trying to show your feelings but I wasnt compareing running styles. I was compareing the situations of DMac with Bush and Peterson. I really disagree with you on Fargas. Fargas has never been a complete back. He's a burner who has lost a step and has never had great hands. Kiffin runs a system that fit Fargas's speed even though Jordan was much more of a complete back than Fargas. If Jordan didnt have back problems, Fargas would have barely seen the field even though Fargas fit the system better than Jordan did. Kiffin runs a system that desires to use a RB in the passing game and desire's speed from the position. There is nobody on Oakland's roster that fits the system nearly as well as DMac does. I see that you desire to disagree with this avid Raider fan. Time will prove me true.
omally
Footballguy
It's a very good situation for him to be in. Fox did not draft him to wait in the wings and learn, he drafted him for now. They are going back to being a power running team, and that is why they drafted Stewart and Otah.
omally
Footballguy
I know fantasy wise it isn't what you want to hear, but teams need more than one good running back. As a Panther fan I would hate to see Williams to be traded. He and Stewart should compliment each other well.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
So you think DWill only gets about 30% of the touches tops?
Why did Fox draft Dwill in the 1st round? To sit on the bench while he keeps burning 1st round picks on RBs?
mdog1967
Footballguy
You make a good case and for you The Raiders Fan I hope your right. I have my Doubts but Ive been Wrong many times before.
omally
Footballguy
Last year they were going to use a different offensive scheme. DWilliams and DeShaun Foster fit that. They ended up not using that scheme that much, and now want to go back to the style Fox likes best. This is only the second time Fox has picked a RB in the first round, so I don't consider that burning 1st round picks on RB's. Having two first round RB's with different styles such as one with power and the other with outside speed is not a bad thing. Having a thunder and a lightning sounds good to me.
simey
Footballguy
Jacksonville?
Chachi
Footballguy
Nope.
Finatic
Footballguy
Oakland?
Chachi
Footballguy
You got it.
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
Choice isn't really a mid first rounder. Neither is Jamaal Charles.McGahee hasn't played 16 games since 2005 and hasn't averaged over 4.1 YPC ever in a season.I wouldn't say those three teams are watering down anything in the mid first round.
Dez
Footballguy
Ray Rice worthless ? no way you would invest much in Chris Johnson ? Man I sure hope your not a dynasty player
madd futher
Footballguy
If you have a point to make, start a new post already. These 3 year old pull-ups are so.....2008. What's the point?
Dez
Footballguy
The point is looking back at the past to try and help predict the future is a great way to look at things. What seems like a slam dunk is not always a slam dunk.You don't ever look back at the past and see what people thought and how things shook out ? I am always finding myself doing this. It really makes you think about the future.
Seems like you've done a ton of this over the past couple of weeks. Not sure if you were doing it before and I never noticed or not. But you have had a negative tone in many of them. If you want to ask a question like "hey man, do you have any insight as to where your analysis was flawed?" or something like that, I could understand it. But to bump one of these posts and say "I hope you're not a dynasty player" or "boy, you are so screwed" is naive and extremely misguided. We all make mistakes by looking at guys the wrong way, making poor trades, or making a bad pick. What's your point and why bash people on the board by pulling up old threads?
Tjaden
Footballguy
yeah, it's a great way to see how uncertain projections can be even for experts and that you should go with your guts/ own pov. I bet he regret this two statements but I'm sure we all have our skeletons in the basement.
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
That's why you always draft talent over situation. These were all RBs drafted in the 1st/2nd by their respective teams.
Even though Leshoure landed in a bad spot, I think he's a huge value play in dynasty. Same as Vereen imo.
Even though Leshoure landed in a bad spot, I think he's a huge value play in dynasty. Same as Vereen imo.
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