Thoughts going into the 2014 Season. (1 Viewer)

[SteelerMurf]

I stopped reading after the Bell in the first three rounds is too early. Bell has been every bit as good as Lacy over the last 8 games.

More durable and versatile. And lacy is getting more touches than if Rodgers was playing. Both are great picks but both should be drafted near same ADP. Remember Bell missed a lot of camp and beginning of year. He is in mid season form getting stronger every week.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

more of the same for me upside down draft and hit the wire hard for RBs

way too many busts at the position to justify early picks.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

I'm going to stay away from the Eagles next year. They'll get figured out in the offseason.

So with a top 5 pick you pass on Shady? Interesting.

 

[pantherclub]

more of the same for me upside down draft and hit the wire hard for RBs

way too many busts at the position to justify early picks.

Just short and sweet and to the point. If 2013 doesnt convince the neanderthals then nothing will.

 

[Banger]

more of the same for me upside down draft and hit the wire hard for RBs

way too many busts at the position to justify early picks.

Just short and sweet and to the point. If 2013 doesnt convince the neanderthals then nothing will.

I've heard a lot of people saying the same thing and think next year will be different. Most will be gunning for Graham early as they've seen the difference he made in most teams.

 

[Shutout]

I love what Foster has done as a Texans fan but I wouldn't touch him next season for the pick it will likely require. He's got a ton of mileage and basically came out of at least 2 games almost immediately (owners obviously started him and were immediately left wondering where he went). He's had an assortment of nagging leg injuries in recent years and now made it not even half a season with the back. And we have no idea what kind of offense or QB he'll be playing with next season. But those are just facts...

I'm just a homer that watched him from his first training camp here, and these are just my opinions. This dude ran with a chip on his shoulder and an attitude....like he was hungry. I worry about how hungry he is to a degree similar to what MoveToSkypager posted earlier. But then let's say for the sake of argument that he's still hungry. To the naked eye he doesn't seem to have the same juice in his legs he had either....he used to ALWAYS make the first guy miss in the open field. He made big plays in the passing game as well. The first guy ALWAYS whiffed when we swung the ball out to him in the flat. Now that guy gets him. Sure the OL and QB have progressively gone down the toilet but the Foster from 2010-2011 makes plays in similar situations that this version of Foster doesn't make anymore. It seemed like he wasn't even the same guy last season to a degree as well. I don't even really need to discount drafting him due to injury risk. His talent is slipping IMO. I see a guy that's already peaked and headed downhill fast, that's why I won't draft him for the pick it would take.

Reasoning like this drives me nuts. By that reasoning, I guess we should completely write off Peterson too because Foster actually has less wear and tear over the last 4seasons then Peterson does. And, omg, petersons production fell by about 40 percent this year compared to last season. It's an obvious sign of decline, yes?

It's almost like people want to manufacture the even rather than truly observe it. Did Foster have a bad season? Yes. But is it possible, just possible to ever get a complete observation on things instead of just sifting out the pieces that support what you want to see? Can we also mention that the texans, as a whole, were utterly pathetic? Can we talk about how no team eyeballing a #1 pick overall has a super elite RB? Jamaal Charles last year was not jamaal Charles this year. Can we talk about how foot to back issues are commonly a progressive nagging thing that just tends to move from one spot to another due to over compensation until it gets completely healed?

I'm not here to sell you a used car or anything but every year we see these kinds of statements on player after player after player...as soon as people are sick of their sustained success, we can't wait to toss them to the side. And every year these are the guys that make that final piece of good ff teams. People have been writing off Wayne and AJ, Moreno and Steve smith, mjd and Colton, and countless others for years and they have their bad years but they also show why they are the types of players they are.

Don't be that guy that thought Terrell Davis couldn't possibly do anything but fail following the 1997 season.

Lots of hyperbole in this post - the original poster simply said that he wouldn't touch Foster at his expected ADP. And this is based on a guy that has watched Foster since day one.

What exactly is hyperbole? What is exxagerated exceedingly but not intended to be taken seriously? Do you know my intents on taking it seriously?

Nothing here is exxagerated. These things all happened. Peterson DOES have more mileage. His stats DID fall off. charles IS better than he was last year, playing in a similar circumstance as the Texans this year. Lower leg issues ARE commonly linked and aknowledged. All these older players I mentioned HAVE been put out to pasture by many people, wrongly. People DID think Davis was no way going to be able to keep it up after those back to back monster years in '96 and '97.

If you observe what is laid out before you instead of trying to justify what you want to see, it's much clearer. Foster might be washed up. It happens to lots of players at lots of positions all the time. It just happens and that's that. And sometimes we see it coming and have good reasons. But lots of other times, we simply gloss over the old story to get to the new, sexier one and that is when we fail the most and it has the biggest impact. In the same way we assume that TRICH couldn't possibly be anything less than great and that Dalton couldn't be anything more than average, we draw our conclusions on Foster, Wayne, AJ, etc. They said LT was toast and he had a few more good seasons. THomas Jones was completely forgotten about until he reminded everyone.

SOme will be wrong. SOme will be right, but as a person who has also been watching Foster for a long time, before he was ever in the NFL, I know it is foolish to dismiss him.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Some guys who probably won't be on any of my redraft teams next year:

Peyton Manning -- someone in most drafts next year is going to pay for this years' numbers, and it won't be me. He'll still be the top QB on my board, but I'm guessing he's going to go at least a full round ahead of Brees and Rodgers, and chances are he'll regress and not lap the field again (4700 / 40 or something). The other two elite guys will be better value, as will Tom Brady (who will probably go MUCH later).

Giovanni Bernard -- love the talent, first of all. But IMO it's a mistake to pay at a player's upside, and I'm not sure we see a massive expansion of Bernard's role in 2014. I'd fell good about him as a RB2, but someone's going to roll the dice on him as a RB1 in most drafts I'm guessing. As early as he'll probably go, I want safe volume, and I don't see that here yet.

Josh Gordon -- yes, he's obscenely gifted. Yes, he lit up the league this year. But he's another guy that carries too much risk for me to feel good taking in the 1st round. I'd rather draft the safer tier 1 WRs at a similar or likely lesser cost than roll the dice on a guy one beer removed from a full year off.

Julius Thomas -- see Manning, first of all. Also, I'm not a huge fan of relying too heavily on a hugely volatile stat like receiving TDs. Thomas is pretty likely to be taken as the 2nd TE off the board next year, and if his TD total falls off, he's not going to provide ROI on the 3rd / 4th that he cost to acquire.

 

[buck naked]

more of the same for me upside down draft and hit the wire hard for RBs

way too many busts at the position to justify early picks.

Just short and sweet and to the point. If 2013 doesnt convince the neanderthals then nothing will.

I keep reading this. If you draft the right RBs, you don't have a problem.

Regardless of what strategy you prefer, it always comes down to assessing players correctly and make the right picks.Nothing neanderthal about that.

 

[MattFancy]

more of the same for me upside down draft and hit the wire hard for RBs

way too many busts at the position to justify early picks.

Just short and sweet and to the point. If 2013 doesnt convince the neanderthals then nothing will.

I keep reading this. If you draft the right RBs, you don't have a problem.

Regardless of what strategy you prefer, it always comes down to assessing players correctly and make the right picks.Nothing neanderthal about that.

I think if you have a shot at say McCoy, Charles, Peterson or Forte, you should jump on it. If you have the 5th pick in your draft next year and take Calvin, I could totally understand that.

The days of going RB-RB could be dwindling. There's just too many question marks at RB anymore to start a draft going RB heavy.

 

[pantherclub]

more of the same for me upside down draft and hit the wire hard for RBs

way too many busts at the position to justify early picks.

Just short and sweet and to the point. If 2013 doesnt convince the neanderthals then nothing will.

I keep reading this. If you draft the right RBs, you don't have a problem.

Regardless of what strategy you prefer, it always comes down to assessing players correctly and make the right picks.Nothing neanderthal about that.

you completely miss the point. The point of upside down drafting is that the number of top 10-15 wr's that bust are incredibly minisculed compared to the top 10-15 backs that bust. You are minimizing your risk by picking a top wr (or qb) in the top 3 rounds.

 

[FF Ninja]

Gotta agree on Spiller. Never owned him before, but people seem down on him enough that he might fall to a point where he is great value. It'll be interesting to see where he is in comparison to Bell and Bernard.

Speaking of which, I'll need to see what those teams do before I think about either one. Bell hasn't impressed me, but his usage has. Stat compilers are just as good in fantasy as actual good players. If Cincy clings to the RBBC approach then it'll be hard to invest early in Bernard.

As with the above back, I need to see what Miami does in the offseason before I write them off. Clearly the offensive line has been the cause of the inconsistent offense. Should they fix that and people still view them as you do, then they will all handily outperform their ADP. Tannehill, Wallace, and Miller could all be top 12 at their position with a better offensive line. (I'm a bit of a Miller skeptic, but I believe in this offense).

Totally agree on Andre Johnson having tread on the tires, although Schaub's got to go. Will be monitoring that QB/OC situation closely.

I like Blackmon's talent, but how late do you think he'll go if he's reinstated for week 1?? His talent and FF production are not in question at this point. He'll simply be a knucklehead risk.

I just can't convince myself that Josh Gordon is going to be worth what people pay for him next year. 20 ypr and 12 targets per game is going to be hard to reproduce.

Need to see who the coach/OC is before I assess RG3's value. Same with Garcon. That guy got a ton of targets this year, but his value is depressed due to lack of TD production.

Seattle D is only a few points ahead of Carolina and Arizona. They are behind KC. Drafting a D early is for suckers.

Gore in the late second is crazy talk. Even if he's still good at 31, Lattimore is getting some of his touches. Love Gore's talent and attitude, but it's better to give up on a player a year early than a year late.

St. Louis has a lot of draft picks and a solid defense. It would be foolish to write them off already. Stacy is already productive without a QB. If they bring in a QB (Cousins? Bridgewater?) and improve the line, a couple stars could emerge.

So long as Andre Ellington plays for Arians, he'll be a very shaky fantasy play. Cannot recommend him to anyone next year.

Russell Wilson is a guy you can grab late? Doubtful.

Antonio Brown will be undervalued next year, but not that much. He's WR5 in standard leagues and WR3 in PPR. He's not going to be cheap.

I don't think I'll bother with Chris Johnson, but I agree that Fitzgerald will be worth grabbing. Offensive line play and an early hamstring injury ruined what could have been a very good season.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

So for you upside down drafters (and I'm becoming a fan of this) how high would you take Graham? I know no one really cares but in a keep one league I have to pick between McCoy and Graham. I feel like it's a huge decision. If Graham becomes so unquestionably the number one TE, does he not merit consideration at number one overall? Quite a few people did that with Calvin last year.

 

[MattFancy]

So for you upside down drafters (and I'm becoming a fan of this) how high would you take Graham? I know no one really cares but in a keep one league I have to pick between McCoy and Graham. I feel like it's a huge decision. If Graham becomes so unquestionably the number one TE, does he not merit consideration at number one overall? Quite a few people did that with Calvin last year.

I wouldn't take Graham #1 overall. I'd still keep McCoy in your case.

 

[buck naked]

more of the same for me upside down draft and hit the wire hard for RBs

way too many busts at the position to justify early picks.

Just short and sweet and to the point. If 2013 doesnt convince the neanderthals then nothing will.

I keep reading this. If you draft the right RBs, you don't have a problem.

Regardless of what strategy you prefer, it always comes down to assessing players correctly and make the right picks.Nothing neanderthal about that.

you completely miss the point. The point of upside down drafting is that the number of top 10-15 wr's that bust are incredibly minisculed compared to the top 10-15 backs that bust. You are minimizing your risk by picking a top wr (or qb) in the top 3 rounds.

I don't miss the point at all. I've drafted upside down before and won high-stakes leagues with the strategy, and I'm sure I will do it again. In fact, I drafted that way in the "Neanderthal" days of 2003 when almost nobody else in WCOFF would dare start a draft with WR/WR.

But in a shallow inventory of good RB's (which I thought this year was), it certainly is a viable strategy to start RB/RB and then draft from a deep inventory of WRs. That worked well for me in a couple leagues this year. Next year might be different, or not - it depends on the inventory next year.

 

[pantherclub]

So for you upside down drafters (and I'm becoming a fan of this) how high would you take Graham? I know no one really cares but in a keep one league I have to pick between McCoy and Graham. I feel like it's a huge decision. If Graham becomes so unquestionably the number one TE, does he not merit consideration at number one overall? Quite a few people did that with Calvin last year.

You could take Graham number one and be set and safe. You know exactly what you are getting with him.

 

[pantherclub]

more of the same for me upside down draft and hit the wire hard for RBs

way too many busts at the position to justify early picks.

Just short and sweet and to the point. If 2013 doesnt convince the neanderthals then nothing will.

I keep reading this. If you draft the right RBs, you don't have a problem.

Regardless of what strategy you prefer, it always comes down to assessing players correctly and make the right picks.Nothing neanderthal about that.

you completely miss the point. The point of upside down drafting is that the number of top 10-15 wr's that bust are incredibly minisculed compared to the top 10-15 backs that bust. You are minimizing your risk by picking a top wr (or qb) in the top 3 rounds.

I don't miss the point at all. I've drafted upside down before and won high-stakes leagues with the strategy, and I'm sure I will do it again. In fact, I drafted that way in the "Neanderthal" days of 2003 when almost nobody else in WCOFF would dare start a draft with WR/WR.

But in a shallow inventory of good RB's (which I thought this year was), it certainly is a viable strategy to start RB/RB and then draft from a deep inventory of WRs. That worked well for me in a couple leagues this year. Next year might be different, or not - it depends on the inventory next year.

Again you miss the bust/risk factor in the top 15 running backs. If you go RB/RB then one will bust. Thats just the math of it. Over 60% of the top 15 selected backs are complete busts. Its not the same with WR or QB.

 

[zftcg]

The Pep Hamilton situation I think is a dangerous precedent for the league. There are factions in the league who simply want more black coaches in general, more black scouts, more black head coaches and more black executives in the league. But there really is no cogent argument about the league trending towards offensive pedigree and QB1 development. The only thing those factions in the league can do is try to get owners and the league to force feed coaches who are in over their head or poor fits because it reaches a politically correct demarcation point for the perception of the league and long term liability prevention, but it does nothing to help actual players on the field. If Pep Hamilton was white, he would have been pushed into a secondary coaching role, had to pay his dues more, and had to "apprentice" or be "groomed" like many other coaches did for their offensive pedigree. But to remove Hamilton now would form a mini backlash to the Pro Rooney Rulers in the league. When it takes a guy half a season to figure out Heyward Bey isn't the answer a No#2 WR, no matter how he blocks and telegraphs running plays that even a high school coach could decipher, it's only hurting the overall product on the field. I'm all for more opportunity for ALL coaches, however there is no circumvention of the dues paying process. It exists for a reason.

Give me a f###ing break! I'm not a Pep defender -- I agree he hasn't done a great job this year -- nor do I want to hijack this thread with a discussion of affirmative action or the Rooney Rule. But your flip assumption that black coaches only get hired to fulfill quotas, and that teams are afraid to fire them because of political correctness, is as ridiculous as it is offensive, and demands some sort of response.

First of all, I'm sure it would come as news to Tony Dungy, Herm Edwards, Art Shell, Lovie Smith, Mike Singletary and Hue Jackson that black coaches can't get fired. Second, Pagano and Grigson are both first-time coaches/GMs in their second year on the job. Do you really think they have the job security that would allow them waste their most important staff hire on someone unqualified, just for political reasons? Besides, where do you get off claiming that Hamilton didn't pay his dues? He's been an assistant coach his entire career, including five years as an NFL position coach before going to Stanford and working under a future NFL coach who's considered one of the sharpest offensive minds in football. What more does he need to be awarded the hallowed GordonGekko "pedigree"?

So why did the Colts hire him? Could it maybe, just possibly, have something to do with the fact that he had been the college OC for the team's franchise QB? Of course not! The only reason they could have possibly hired him was because he was black.

Honestly, the fact that you see an African-American coach and just presume he was only hired for his race says a lot more about you than it does about the coach.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

One guy I'm keeping an eye on is Chris Johnson and his landing spot (if not TN).

While I don't think he's a bellcow back any longer, I definitely think he's got some juice left in his legs. I think he could do some things with less snaps and used like a Woodhead etc... Perhaps STL would be a fit as a compliment to Stacy. JMO He'll be in for a rude awakening if he thinks someone's going to toss money at him & get as much/more usage than with TN.

 

[rjv]

I'm going to stay away from the Eagles next year. They'll get figured out in the offseason.

This is silly. Chip Kelly will change things up so quick it will make defensive coordinators heads spin. It's not like last year, coordinators needed to figure out the QB option that Cam, RG3, etc ran. Kelly's system is a lot more complex and dynamic. To say he will get figured out isn't accurate. There is not one thing to defend like a running QB in his system. And maybe when you figure out how to counteract one thing, he comes out with multiple formations and plays that put you right back where you started.

 

[ghostguy123]

Zac Stacy either finishes in the top 8 RBs or ends up outside the top 36. No in between.

This is an absolutely absurd statement...........yet I totally agree