wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
you going to have to explain the logic on those three...especially Colston.
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Thoughts on Brandon Marshall (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter The Dude
- Start date
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Everybody goes about things differently, but here is one way I look at things. Here are the ppg rankings for WR over the past 2 seasons in PPR leagues:
Calvin Johnson 20.2Roddy White 18.5Wes Welker 17.7Andre Johnson 17.6Hakeem Nicks 17.3Greg Jennings 16.9Marques Colston 16.2L Fitzgerald 15.9Dwayne Bowe 15.8Kenny Britt 15.8Percy Harvin 15.7Julio Jones 15.7Brandon Lloyd 15.6Mike Wallace 15.5Victor Cruz 15.3Reggie Wayne 14.9B Marshall 14.9Steve Johnson 14.6A.J. Green 14.5Miles Austin 14.4Jeremy Maclin 14.1Vincent Jackson 13.7DeSean Jackson 13.4Malcom Floyd 13.2Santana Moss 13.2Dez Bryant 12.9Pierre Garcon 12.9Steve Smith 12.7Jordy Nelson 12.5Mike Williams 12.1Certainly we can't just solely go on what's happened in the past, as situations change, players switch teams, supporting players or QB may be different, new coaches and systems, etc.
That being said, Jennings, Colston, and Harvin rank pretty high on that list. In my world, those guys are candidates to covet more than Marshall. I know you (and others) will point to the Cutler/Marshall history to bump Marshall up, and as already discussed, I see a small bump for that while others see a much bigger bump for that.
Calvin Johnson 20.2Roddy White 18.5Wes Welker 17.7Andre Johnson 17.6Hakeem Nicks 17.3Greg Jennings 16.9Marques Colston 16.2L Fitzgerald 15.9Dwayne Bowe 15.8Kenny Britt 15.8Percy Harvin 15.7Julio Jones 15.7Brandon Lloyd 15.6Mike Wallace 15.5Victor Cruz 15.3Reggie Wayne 14.9B Marshall 14.9Steve Johnson 14.6A.J. Green 14.5Miles Austin 14.4Jeremy Maclin 14.1Vincent Jackson 13.7DeSean Jackson 13.4Malcom Floyd 13.2Santana Moss 13.2Dez Bryant 12.9Pierre Garcon 12.9Steve Smith 12.7Jordy Nelson 12.5Mike Williams 12.1Certainly we can't just solely go on what's happened in the past, as situations change, players switch teams, supporting players or QB may be different, new coaches and systems, etc.
That being said, Jennings, Colston, and Harvin rank pretty high on that list. In my world, those guys are candidates to covet more than Marshall. I know you (and others) will point to the Cutler/Marshall history to bump Marshall up, and as already discussed, I see a small bump for that while others see a much bigger bump for that.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
ok, life or death decision, who has more fantasy points this season, Marques Colston or Brandon Marshall? I just cant honestly believe that you believe thatColston beat Marshall the past two years because he was in New Orleans and Marshall was in Miami. When the Situations were slightly closer( still a major edge to colston), it wasn't even a competition.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I say Colston, as we know how often the Saints pass and how Colston fits in. We haven't yet seen how Marshall will do in CHI, so IMO Colston is less risky. I would probably say Marshall has a higher upside than Colston, but I think Colston has a lower down side (if that makes sense). I don't think you can really go wrong with either one of those two.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Injury concern=ColstonBehavior concern=MarshallOverall athletic ability=MarshallQB=Colston#1 target in offense=MarshallBetter weapons in offense=Colston, this is another negative regarding targets.I'd also enjoy a response David from the previous page. I took quite a bit of time responding to your post.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
This is the third or fourth thread we've had this discussion in. Not sure I can add more to what I've already listed between them all.
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benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I will no longer respond because you appear intent on not bending at all, got it.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'm not sure where the bending is supposed to occur. I already said the Bears offense should be better than in previous years, they should throw the ball more frequently than they have, and overall their passing production and numbers should be higher. I also agree that Marshall is the best WR option thay have had in a long time. I will take a wait and see approach to see if anyone other than Marshall is really an upgrade or will have a big impact on the offense.The main difference is how people interpret what higher means. You and several others think way higher. I think somewhat higher but not hight enough to compete with other top tier passing attacks. No harm, no foul as far as that goes. I still don't see the Bears passing as much as other teams do NOW, let alone the Bears passing as much as the Broncos did THEN.And again, I am not saying Marshall is going to tank, I just view him as a Top 5 guy. Top 10-15 is not the same as if I were suggesting he's not in the Top 50. Just because I wouldn't take him where some others would doesn't mean they are wrong or I am wrong. It's just my opinion.I'm alos not saying your points aren't valid, I just read what I see differently than you do. I don't think either one of us has to change our opinions or projections just because we've recited our positions. You have Marshall and Cutler and Marshall projected higher than I do. I get it. I don't agree. But neither one of us has to move off of our position. It's all good.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
David:
You definitely make some good points, but you're underestimating Jay Cutler by saying he's "average" and "probably better" than the crap in Miami. I can see why if you're just looking at the numbers, but as a Chicago-land transplant (read non-Bears homer) who has seen quite a bit of him, he's pretty darn good. He's not elite, as in the Brady, Brees, Rodgers, healthy Peyton tier, but ability-wise, he's right there with the next group. His stats have suffered due to a few things: the total lack of anything resembling a #1 target, a system that was a terrible fit considering Cutler's strengths and the Bears' personnel overall, and an o-line that has really struggled to pass protect. The first two of those three have been addressed strongly, and the line looks to be at least slightly better as well.
It definitely feels odd to be the one arguing the pro-Bears side in any summer football discussion, as I'm usually the only non-Bears homer in any watercooler discussion.
You definitely make some good points, but you're underestimating Jay Cutler by saying he's "average" and "probably better" than the crap in Miami. I can see why if you're just looking at the numbers, but as a Chicago-land transplant (read non-Bears homer) who has seen quite a bit of him, he's pretty darn good. He's not elite, as in the Brady, Brees, Rodgers, healthy Peyton tier, but ability-wise, he's right there with the next group. His stats have suffered due to a few things: the total lack of anything resembling a #1 target, a system that was a terrible fit considering Cutler's strengths and the Bears' personnel overall, and an o-line that has really struggled to pass protect. The first two of those three have been addressed strongly, and the line looks to be at least slightly better as well.
It definitely feels odd to be the one arguing the pro-Bears side in any summer football discussion, as I'm usually the only non-Bears homer in any watercooler discussion.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Again, everyone is different on how to best to come up with a grand master plan for things and predict outcomes for the upcoming season. I go more by numbers and results and less by what I see and hear. That may be backwards in some people's eyes and I won't fight people on that. So I may be the wrong person to debate on this, as I usually want to see something first and then alter my projections for next year after it's actually happened the year before. From my perspective, the numbers don't lie. They show what actually happened. What coulda, woulda, mighta, shoulda happened (applied to either the past or the future) has a lot more uncertainty than the actual results.As I mentioned in one of the other threads, I don't get to see the Bears very often and certainly have no real insight into training camp. Maybe all the things you said will happen and I am siding too much on the old Bears and not enough on the new Bears. At the very least, your perspective got me to research more about Tice, Cutler, Marshall, the Bears, Martz offenses, etc., so it was not a pointless excercise.To be clear, if I found more in what I poked around on that led me more to your position, I would have amended my projected numbers for Culter and Marshall. On the surface it may appear that I was going to stand on my assessment no matter what I found, but that's not the case.For example, there were plenty of historical reasons to suggest last year that Cam Newton was going to be a fair to middling fantasy option. History had shown that most rookie QBs were not great fantasy producers, as the list of first year disappointments was long and plentiful. Well, we saw how that turned out. It's a lot like gambling. If someone had two cards showing and they were an ace and a queen and I had to bet that the next card would be between the two cards, I would bet against the card being a king. The odds are pretty long that a king would be the next card (only an 8% chance), but certainly a king COULD be the next card. The net result as it pertains to Newton is obviously to slot him near the top this year and keep a more open mind on rookie QBs, but in the main I would still be leary of rookie QBs as there were way more rookie disappointments than there were Cam Newtons.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I'm generally very numbers oriented also, but (and I'm sure you'd agree) they only tell part of the story. Just pointing out that my personal eyeball test (and that of quite a few others) suggests something very different from that suggested by the raw numbers.
Not suggesting you change your mind based on my or anyone else's eyeball test, but I just think your assessment is based off of information that doesn't include the most compelling pro-Cutler evidence (last year's game tape) in this specific case.
Not suggesting you change your mind based on my or anyone else's eyeball test, but I just think your assessment is based off of information that doesn't include the most compelling pro-Cutler evidence (last year's game tape) in this specific case.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
That, as they say, is why they play the games.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Very true.
ok, I'm gonna throw a projection into the mix.
1) since his rookie year, marshall has produced 1325, 1265, 1120 1014(14 games) and 1214.
2) marshalls production dropped from 1265 to 1120 when Cutler left and Orton Played. his production dropped slightly when he moved to miami but only due to injury. projected over 16 games he projected to 1158 yards that year. the big difference was in TD's. So the move, the new offensive system in miami, and the weaker QB in miami didnt hurt him much if at all. or he got better each year and that made up for the downgrade in QB's from one year to the next.
If we assume that the QB's in miami are equal to Orton (I considered them to be weaker) I think it's fair to add 100-150 yards to account for moving to a better QB and about 3-5 TD for moving to a better team.
I dont think this adjustment is out of line.
My projection is 1350 yards, 9 TD for Marshall this year. This is 150 yards and 3 TD better than he did in Miami last year.
Yes the system is new, but he has switched systems and QB's before. He is familiar with Cutler and that will make the transition more smooth.
1) since his rookie year, marshall has produced 1325, 1265, 1120 1014(14 games) and 1214.
2) marshalls production dropped from 1265 to 1120 when Cutler left and Orton Played. his production dropped slightly when he moved to miami but only due to injury. projected over 16 games he projected to 1158 yards that year. the big difference was in TD's. So the move, the new offensive system in miami, and the weaker QB in miami didnt hurt him much if at all. or he got better each year and that made up for the downgrade in QB's from one year to the next.
If we assume that the QB's in miami are equal to Orton (I considered them to be weaker) I think it's fair to add 100-150 yards to account for moving to a better QB and about 3-5 TD for moving to a better team.
I dont think this adjustment is out of line.
My projection is 1350 yards, 9 TD for Marshall this year. This is 150 yards and 3 TD better than he did in Miami last year.
Yes the system is new, but he has switched systems and QB's before. He is familiar with Cutler and that will make the transition more smooth.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I'm predicting a top 10 passing offense for Chicago. They aren't going to rival GB/New England/New Orleans...that's not what i'm predicting. I'm also not predicting 616 passing attempts like he had in Denver.Passing Attmepts:-In 2010, Jay Cutler was on pace for 502 attempts. This was in a run oriented attack with Johnny Knox, Roy Williams, Dane Sanzenbacher as the leading reception leaders.-Mike Tice's QB have always had over 510 passing attempts, even the bad ones like Brad Johnson and without Randy Moss. I'm predicting 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not a career high for Cutler in Chicago or Mike Tice led teams, so it may increase.Has Brandon Marshall improved since being with Jay Cutler in 2008?Certainly Marshall has had to play with worse QB's in Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, Matt Moore.-Catch % is better in every season than in 2008 with Cutler-YPC was 12.2 in 2008, 15.0 in 2011. He was in the 11's in 2009/2010.-Receptions have stayed relatively the same since Cutler outside of 2011. 101 in 2009, 98(prorated) in 2010, 81 in 2011.-Touchdowns have stayed close as well. With Cutler 7 and 6...without Cutler 10, 3, 6.-Yard per target: With Cutler 2008 6.98. Without Cutler 2009 7.27, 2010 7.04, 2011 8.7.-FF points per target: With Cutler 2008 1.47. Without Cutler 2009 1.65, 2010 1.42, 2011 1.70.Marshall has shown to at a minimum maintain the level of play with worse QB play and in many instances improve.Has Jay Cutler improved since being with Brandon Marshall in 2008?-2009 was an outlier for Cutler's career. Worst QB Rating, yards per attempt, and interceptions. He was pressing in a bad situation.-Completion % was 62.2 in 2008. Cutler has had 60.5, 60.4, 58.0 the last three years. Not bad considering the WR's and OL.-YPA was 7.35 in 2008. Cutler has improved to 7.58 and 7.39 the last two seasons.-TD per attempt was .040 in 2008. Cutler has improved to .048 in 2009, .053 in 2010, .041 in 2011.-INT per attempt was .029 in 2008. Cutler improved to .022 in 2011.Marshall and Cutler are both better player and more efficient since 2008. Cutler will have around 550 attempts, Marshall should have north of 150 targets. Why can't Marshall have better numbers than in 2008?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I thought we were done. I don't really have the time right now, but to futher flesh out why I would suggest Cutler is either not as good as some people think and/or has not been in the right environment for fantasy success, here's how he's done in his 3 years in Chicago. (Yes, I get the entire situation some how has changed.):
Since 2009 and considered only QBs with at least 200 total passing attempts:
Ranked 21st in YPA.
Ranked 44th in worst INT%.
Ranked 3rd in most INT.
Ranked 19th in passing yards per game.
Ranked 14th in TD per attempt.
Ranked 24th in passing attempts per game.
Again, some will say it was the system . . . or the OL . . . or the receiving corps . . . or they put too much pressure on Cutler. Maybe all those things truly were the reason Cutler did not rank better in all those categories. And maybe this year he can do much better.
Looking at the 3 years Cutler was in DEN:
Ranked 13th in YPA.
Ranked 32nd in worst INT%.
Ranked 7th in most INT.
Ranked 7th in passing yards per game.
Ranked 10th in TD per attempt.
Ranked 8th in passing attempts per game.
Cutler did a little bit better overall in Denver . . . but throwing a lot more passes had a profound impact on his per game totals. Add everything together and I still don't see where Cutler was a great QB talent (and maybe he will make strides this year). Bottom line (to me anyways), Cutler has put up decent numbers based more on volume and less on refining or making great improvements in his game. As I see it, give Cutler a ton of attempts and his fantasy numbers will be very relevant. Give him middle of the road or below average in terms of attempts, and he won't be. It remains to be seen if the OL, the WR talent, the coaching, the scheme, etc. will make any impact on what he's done so far.
Since 2009 and considered only QBs with at least 200 total passing attempts:
Ranked 21st in YPA.
Ranked 44th in worst INT%.
Ranked 3rd in most INT.
Ranked 19th in passing yards per game.
Ranked 14th in TD per attempt.
Ranked 24th in passing attempts per game.
Again, some will say it was the system . . . or the OL . . . or the receiving corps . . . or they put too much pressure on Cutler. Maybe all those things truly were the reason Cutler did not rank better in all those categories. And maybe this year he can do much better.
Looking at the 3 years Cutler was in DEN:
Ranked 13th in YPA.
Ranked 32nd in worst INT%.
Ranked 7th in most INT.
Ranked 7th in passing yards per game.
Ranked 10th in TD per attempt.
Ranked 8th in passing attempts per game.
Cutler did a little bit better overall in Denver . . . but throwing a lot more passes had a profound impact on his per game totals. Add everything together and I still don't see where Cutler was a great QB talent (and maybe he will make strides this year). Bottom line (to me anyways), Cutler has put up decent numbers based more on volume and less on refining or making great improvements in his game. As I see it, give Cutler a ton of attempts and his fantasy numbers will be very relevant. Give him middle of the road or below average in terms of attempts, and he won't be. It remains to be seen if the OL, the WR talent, the coaching, the scheme, etc. will make any impact on what he's done so far.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Three times you remarked about how the situation is different and you don't seem to think it will make a difference. THINK ABOUT THIS:-If Cutler digressed so much between Denver to Chicago...the main factor is situation.Therefore, it can and has made a negative impact upon Cutler. I'd think at some point a better situation will have a positive impact on Cutler.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I am not disputing that. The question is two fold: 1) To what degree is the current situation better than it was in CHI and how does that compare to how things were in DEN and 2) how much the Bears will pass the ball. Given that for the most part Cutler's numbers were somewhat similar in DEN and CHI and really only varied based on his number of passing attempts, those are the main issues to review in computing a projected outcome for Cutler and Marshall.Let's try to make this simple (and I realize it's not this easy). But say the Bears and Cutler mostly had passing attempt and productivity numbers in the 20s because they ran the ball so much (with the intent here being that they ranked even with their pass attempt ranking. With all the changed that were made this off season, 1) do they shoot up the rankings in terms of attempts and 2) does the quality of earning increase as well? (By that I mean instead of raking 20th in attempts and say 20th in yardage, maybe they shooot up to 12th in attempts but 6th in yardage.)
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Those are tough questions to answer. I'm not sure why we have to compare it to Denver. Both Cutler and Marshall have improved since then(despite poor situations). They don't have to be Denver 2008 to be successful in the NFL and FF.For Cutler to break into the top 10 in 2011 he would need:4,052 yards25 TDThose don't seem like crazy numbers to expect.Passing attempts: In 2011, 16 different QBs had over 500 pass attempts(26 teams over 500 attempts). Some surprises include: Hass with 518, Flacco 542, Sanchez 543, Freeman 551, Fitzpatrick 569. Some of those are run based teams that are still slinging the rock.The last two years Cutler has averaged 7.48 YPA. To get to that 4052 mark he would need 542 attempts(18 different teams had more attempts in 2011).'David Yudkin said:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
IMO, simply rolling out the #10 fantasy QB most of the time is going to hurt you more than help you, especially when the big boys have huge weeks. From other threads, I believe I said Cutler could beat his current draft position and finish in the Top 10-15 range (with the scoring difference between those spots fairly nominal). I personally have a hard time shooting him up to the Top 5 as some had suggested.
I looked for a comparible situation to the Bears and ended up with Houston 2010 as the upside for Cutler. I realize it's not apples to apples, but both teams have/had solid defenses, 2 reliable backs, and a vacuum cleaner as a WR1. I don't think either team has a solid WR2, and at least the Texans had a decent TE. In 2010, Schaub had 574 attempts, 4369 passing yards, a 7.6 ypa, and 24 TD. (I realize Schaub has different numbers in other seasons, but for argument's sake 2010 worked well.) That season, Schaub ranked as QB9. While I don't expect Cutler to have 574 attempts, that at least showed what his numbers look like and what he might rank if he hit them.
I looked for a comparible situation to the Bears and ended up with Houston 2010 as the upside for Cutler. I realize it's not apples to apples, but both teams have/had solid defenses, 2 reliable backs, and a vacuum cleaner as a WR1. I don't think either team has a solid WR2, and at least the Texans had a decent TE. In 2010, Schaub had 574 attempts, 4369 passing yards, a 7.6 ypa, and 24 TD. (I realize Schaub has different numbers in other seasons, but for argument's sake 2010 worked well.) That season, Schaub ranked as QB9. While I don't expect Cutler to have 574 attempts, that at least showed what his numbers look like and what he might rank if he hit them.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I have a hard time having him in the top 5 as well. I think between 7-10 is where his upside currently stands.Maybe that's a solid comparison...but if he puts up 4369...he will be in the top 10 yardage wise and i'll be happy.I was at camp yesterday and I've never seen this many weapons at Cutler's disposal. The TE's got a lot of work and look good on top of the WR's + Forte/Bush. Marshall also looks like the real deal and is a hard worker.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
This is one of the main reasons why I don't really watch training camp and/or the preseason. Everyone looks great and all teams haave rosy outlooks.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
So you have more insight by not watching players?No everyone didn't look great in Bears camp yesterday(full report in Bears thread) I came away unimpressed with Alshon Jeffery(a guy we've debated about impact this year in fact).
David Yudkin
Footballguy
My point being, after following a lot of preseason situations for FBG for 10 years (and having written the daily emails for a few of them), the number of fluff pieces, guys gunning for 2K yard seasons, players being in the best shape of their lives, and guys on the verge of a breakout are staggering but the ones that become even half true are minimal. So I have learned to take most things with a grain of salt. IMO, ANYONE can look good in shorts and tee shirts, with no real defense, with no contact, in a drill based environment. It's not real football. Will I miss out on some situations and not read things clearly? Absolutely. But I would rather that happen than buy into all the hype and start drafting people 4 rounds early because I bought into it. Similarly, we are a month+ from any meaningful football, so a guy having a good day or a bad day at practice really doesn't mean all that much.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Considering you're puffing out your chest and throwing out resume information. Note that i've coached football for many years, several of which have been in division 1 college football. I've even recruited players that have made it into the NFL. So disregarding my scouting capabilities isn't valid, in fact it's probably my strength. I don't look at a play and see a Touchdown. Instead yesterday I saw Jay Cutler look off the saftey and Brandon Marshall stemming a DB at the top of his route...the stuff that actually matters.Information can be gathered during training camp. Is it 100% of what I or other people should base a FF strategy? No, but it is a small piece of the puzzle. Any good coach knows that what happens in practice transfers into the games. Players learn in practice, try new techniques, develop chemistry, how far along in development, etc. People can see the strengths and weakness of players from practices.'David Yudkin said:
-jb-
Footballguy
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'm not saying practice isn't important. I am saying that the fluff stories that come out of training camp when there is no pass rush, no hitting, no attempt by the defense to play anything but base, vanilla coverage, with no attempt to really tackle the receivers, etc. that that is not real football. In your example, who know if the defender was basically a walk on free agent that has no chance of making the team that is there as a training camp body.I also have coached youth football for years and covered/reported on high school football. Many times there are great practice players. They look unstoppable in practice. Maybe they are a defender that hits like a wildebeaast or can pick off passes all over the field IN PRACTICE. But put the same player in a real game and the guy misses every tackle, gets juked out of his shoes, and is a liability when he's in the game. I've also seen players that did ok in practice but cranked it up on game day and were one man wrecking crews when the plays really mattered.To the point of this thread, IMO (and I emphasize it's just an opinion), we've seen what Cutler has done for several years now. I agree that he should get a bit of a bump because of Marshall, but I as of now am not ready to annoint him as the next Brady, Brees, or Rodgers. You've indicated that Cutler and Marshall rise to a near top level this year, I think they both do well but not quite as well as you. Duly noted both ways. We've been basically doing a dance that involves a few hundred yards and a couple TD either way . . . it's not like we're light years apart on this.
baconisgood
Footballguy
The main problem I have with this approach (with veteran players) is that what you are missing is much more important than what you are seeing. Specifically what you are missing is 31 other camps when you are at one camp which makes it very, very difficult to crate a baseline for how good/bad Cutler and the Bears as a whole look, and FF is totally a game of relative, not absolute, values. Looking at one camp will basically always bias you towards or away from that team. If you really enjoy being there, have emotional ties to the team, happen to see some great plays (is there any starting receiver in the NFL that hasn't made dozens of highlight reel catches in his career?) you will be biased towards them. If the weather stinks, if you dislike the team personally or are disappointed in their recent draft it is very hard to disassociate those feelings and be neutral. The one caveat is that young players with large strides to go can be plucked in late rounds if you see them doing things in practice that they couldn't do in years past. This is of course because you have a baseline (themselves) to compare to and also because young players with incomplete games tend to be later draft picks which allows for higher risk/reward profiles. You still have no way to evaluate them between their peers (other teams' younsters who have developed this year) and so can't really rate them in that context well.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I understand your point fully, I don't think we're on different pages. I also don't recall saying anything like "Pick up Devin Thomas he's in for a huge season" due to one training camp practice.I simply posted the same thing as Cecil Lammey...yet it was called irrelevant because i'm not a "staff" member.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If it makes you feel any better, I don't ascribe what Cecil reports as gospel either. In fact, that might be another perfect example. Manning has been earning some stellar reports out of camp, yet Peyton himself was interviewed and said he doesn't feel the same and the best he can hope for is to do the best he can with the way he is now. I would put more stock in Manning admitting that he doesn't feel right than someone else (even if he were at practice) saying Peyton was very accurate on some short and intermediate routes.I'm not saying that practice doesn't matter. And I'm not saying what you observed is irrelevant. But one play in an early practice, IMO, does not trump what we've seen from Marshall and what we've seen from Cutler. As I see it (specifically for Bears fans), that play that you witnessed is an encouraging sign. Maybe that keeps replicating itself throughout camp and throughout the season.What kills me on some camp reports (nothing to do with you) is that there will be a report that PLAYER X made a circus catch that went for a touchdown. But they may be leaving out that the same player dropped 5 easy balls in drills or other plays. I heard some reports from Jets camp of what Tebow di in GL drills or Sanchez did in a 2 minute drill. If either one of those guys did something monumental (if that can even happen at this stage), would that really impact people to think that either one is the next messiah at QB?
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
In this way, i'm on the same page as you. Insert Kareem Huggins, Chaz Schilens, etc hype trains based on lots of assumptions.Thanks for spending the time to straighten this out so we see eye to eye.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
If everything goes well, I don't see how he finishes outside the top 6
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Yeah, but you could say that for a dozen WRs. Marshall is so much of a head case, he is hard to trust, and spending a very early pick on him or spending a lot on him in an auction is awfully risky. Obviously, he is much more valuable in PPR leagues vs. non-PPR leagues, since he has never been a big TD producer.
Buck Stop
Footballguy
In interviews with Marshall on NFL Network, I have been pleasantly surprised on how calm and composed he seems to be. He just looks happy. Doesn't mean he won't blow up, I realize he has proven to be somewhat of a head case, but it just seems like he's in a good place right now. I think that can only help him when the season starts.
baconisgood
Footballguy
I don't agree that Marshall is a big risk right now for redraft leagues. All of his issues occurred in the off season as happens with many players. He is also forthright about his issues beyond just platitudes and is getting professional help for a diagnosed disorder. I have him as slightly more risky than a typical WR but not much more so.
