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Thoughts on Tom Brady...can he still be elite? (1 Viewer)

Bucs acquired LG Logan Mankins from the Patriots in exchange for TE Tim Wright and a draft pick.

Another weapons for Brady.

 
False Start said:
Dr. Octopus said:
False Start said:
Dr. Octopus said:
During those three seasons Cutler has missed time. Cant stay healthy

During many of those seasons the Bears ran a conservative offense and had top defense. Rhetoric

The Bears have a new offensive philosophy and a quarterback friendly head coach. Rhetoric

The Bears threw for 4,300 yards and 32 TDs last season. McCown could be better than Cutler, he played like it.

Cutler now has two stud WRs to throw to - and a few other nice weapons in Bennett, Holmes and Forte. Point?

Cutler is 31, Brady is 37. Whats that have to do with redraft? Cutler still sucks, dont see him getting better because people overvalue a #2 WR when they had a better QB like McCown throwing to him a bunch.

Things change - some adjust, some get left behind.

You start a topic, ask for opinions but only seem to want the ones that agree with yours.
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You are right, some do get left behind, especially those who doubt players like Tom Brady for players like Jay Cutler. Bolded my thoughts to your attempted points.

Also, I did start a topic on a discussion board which means it will be discussed and by discussing that means some may not agree. It does not mean I want everyone to agree with me, I can care less if you or they do. You brought up Cutler in a Brady thread, not me.

But in a discussion on a football site, if someone so ridiculously compares a sub par QB after 9 years to that of a HoF QB who was elite till just last year, thats not an opinion thats irrational thinking.
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Reggie Wayne is a future Hall of Famer as well. Am I not allowed to say that I think Cordarrelle Patterson will have a better season than Reggie Wayne - even though he's never reached 1,000 yards receiving? Cordarelle being better than Wayne is rational, he is a 2nd year WR with a huge upside under Norvs offense and will be a focal point while Wayne is coming off a major injury with a bunch of targets to compete and is not the focal point. Reach much?

If Brady has another down season and it's then looks like a trend, can I think Cutler outperforms him in 2015? Why would anyone think Cutler is good now after 8 years of mediocrity?

I mentioned Cutler because my point was that I would rather let some one else grab Brady while I wait a few more rounds to grab a QB and he was one of the examples I brought up. I understand and I basically said why would you pass on an elite talent for a guy who is not close to elite. You made your reasoning I made mine.

And just to sum up your "bolded thoughts";

- You think when a QB gets hurt in the past, it means he will get hurt in the future. Is Welker more likely to get a concussion then someone who hasnt?

- You disagree that the Bears offense under Marc Trestman is different than the Bears offense under Lovie Smith. I never said that, just said its rhetoric so its nothing certain.

- You don't think adding another talented weapon to an offense helps a quarterback improve his statistics. I never said that, I just asked the point of it? Elite position players dont mean an elite QB.

- You think Josh McCown is a better QB than Jay Cutler. Yes, I do. Which is ironic because you think Cutler is better than Brady. Wasnt the city of Chicago wanting McCown to stay QB even when Cutler was healthy?

Duly noted.
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:unsure:
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I don't think Cutler is better than Brady. Maybe you should re-read this thread for context.

 
LawFitz said:
How does the loss of Logan Mankins affect things?
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Pats were flush at OLine, Mankins is on the decline of his amazing career and is not the player he used to be - Id say hes still top 33%. Oline is fine, if anything bump Doug Martin lol.

 
False Start said:
Second Sight said:
So many responses and good info in here. There is room for several people to be right in this one.

This is the one team in the league that I would say, "yes, they definitely could pull a FU move this year." They have the mentality, the talent and the schedule to be one of those teams where, just as everything went terrible for them last year in terms of continuity and talent availability, it could all fall into place this year and the Patriots could be that team out there beating people 45-17 every week just because they can.

All the things Anarchy outlined for us as a recap...what a run down, and I don't think even mentioned Welker. This is a team that lost their top FIVE pass catchers last year and then got slammed on defense too. Think about that. No matter how good you are, what is Manning without Thomas/Thomas/Welker/Ball AND Decker? What is Rodgers without his entire receiving corps? And then the defensive hits to top it off.

I don't know if it WILL be done, but I bet if it CAN be done, the coach and QB on that team will light it up this year. 37 years old or not, I don't think it matters for certain players (just like it didn't matter to the previously injured Manning). Age is not an issue in this case. §
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I'm starting to learn age is grossly overrated in this eras QBs.

Manning, Brees, Brady, Romo and Rivers all older QBs with no signs of slowing down regardless of injuries.
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Likely because they don't take the hits they used to and they have so much technology available to really refine the mental aspect of the game that can, for a while longer, compensate for the physical attributes that begin to wane. §

 
Second Sight said:
Kool-Aid Larry said:
Mike Loyko ‏@NEPD_Loyko5 mins

From week 8 on Logan Mankins gave up 9 sacks. His decline as a pass blocker outweighed his ability as a run blocker in the Patriots mind.
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The Pats have made a side business of knowing when to dump name players. If anything, I take this as a sign of "buyer beware" for the Bucs.
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I'm sure the Bucs are aware, it's just that he is still an upgrade as their guards are really bad.
 
He can be elite. Age doesn't bother me. I saw Farve in Minnesota, Manning in Denver and both old Qbs who lit it up. Brady needs the weapons and it starts with Gronkowski. If he has a healthy Gronk, he is capable of putting up big numbers. His downfield numbers are extremely better with Gronk in the lineup and of course picking up big chunks of yardage is how you get those elite numbers.

 
Games 9-12 with Gronkowski back Brady was quite good:

23/33/432/4/0 PIT

29/40/296/1/1 @CAR

34/50/344/3/0 DEN

29/41/371/2/1 @HOU

Note this stretch came after 2 weeks of playing with Gronkowski before that.

 
It cannot get any worse than last year for Brady with the personnel issues the Pats had. People forget that he not only did not have Gronk for most of the season, but also lost Amendola (Welker's replacement) and Vereen for most of the year. They were rolling out rookies at all the skill receiving positions for most of the year. Even if they had to do that again, the rooks will be second year players who should be a little more adept at playing than they were. I look at him as a really safe pick and expect him to be over 30 tds this year with the potential for more.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
Games 9-12 with Gronkowski back Brady was quite good:

23/33/432/4/0 PIT

29/40/296/1/1 @CAR

34/50/344/3/0 DEN

29/41/371/2/1 @HOU

Note this stretch came after 2 weeks of playing with Gronkowski before that.
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As I posted on the first page, Brady put up good fantasy numbers by throwing the ball a ton in that stretch. Brady also had 201 passing attempts in the 4th quarter and OT last year. The Pats defense will be much improved, and there is little to no chance Brady will be passing anywhere near as much at the end of games this season if the core of the team stays healthy.

I would project the Pats for more rushing attempts and fewer passing attempts, so Brady will have to be more efficient to get more yardage and throw a lot more TDs this year to get back into fantasy elite territory. After Manning-Brees-Rodgers in whatever order you want to rank them, there really is not a ton of difference in the QB 4-14 range.

 
My projections for the Pats air game:

Brady: 5315/489/51
-
Gronk: 900/80/11
Edelman: 900/90/8
Amendola: 700/75/5
Thompkins: 650/55/6
Dobson: 400/35/3
Lafell: 350/25/3
Vereen: 650/50/6
Ridley: 50/8/0
Devlin: 100/15/4
Wright: 400/30/3

Hooman: 75/10/0

Tyms: 90/8/1

White: 50/8/1
(Yeah I think he has a few more elite seasons in him. Dat broken completions record incoming.)

 
We are pretty close on projections for the passing game Run it Up. I have lower passing yardage for Brady however.

I am projecting Brady for 638 pass attempts (after sacks) 394 completions (61.8% completion) 4619 passing yards 32 TD.

Anarchy,

How many passing/rushing attempts do you have for the Patriots in 2014?

I have the Patriots down for 1158 total plays 671 pass attempts (34 sacks) 487 rushing attempts.

 
Biabreakable said:
We are pretty close on projections for the passing game Run it Up. I have lower passing yardage for Brady however.

I am projecting Brady for 638 pass attempts (after sacks) 394 completions (61.8% completion) 4619 passing yards 32 TD.

Anarchy,

How many passing/rushing attempts do you have for the Patriots in 2014?

I have the Patriots down for 1158 total plays 671 pass attempts (34 sacks) 487 rushing attempts.
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I think Pats put up a similar split to 2012, 3/2 Passing/Rushing. I think they will lead the league (by a deal) in pass attempts with ~680 be near the middle-bottom of rush attempts at ~420.

 
Yes I have compromised to a static projection of the median range expectation, just for simplicity sake in discussion. I do expect variance from these numbers, the upside and downside of that would be 610-670 passing attempts (after sacks).

For the running game this would be 460-510 total rushing attempts. I wonder from David's comments if he thinks the Patriots will run the ball more than this? Thus impacting the total passing attempts somewhat.

One thing I have noticed with Brady is a significant drop om his completion percentage.

In 2013 Tom Brady had a 60.5% completion rate. The lowest completion percentage since 2003 when he had 60.2%

I also note that this was when Brady was 36 years old.

I think the supporting cast last season certainly contributed to this decline. It is also possible that being age 36 has something to do with it though. 35 is an age for QB when most see a statistical decline in efficiency of their performance. At the same time we are in a new era as far as rules supporting the passing game and Quartbacks, the really good ones, do age like fine wine.

Just something I am keeping my eye on with Brady as he has passed this historical landmark.

When do QBs decline in efficiency?

That is a study I would like to revisit in some depth as I have not really looked into it for several years now.

 
I think personnel played a big part in it, but I also think Brady isn't the same player he was in '07 - that being said I don't think he needs to be that guy to produce at that level in the NE system.

 
Biabreakable said:
Yes I have compromised to a static projection of the median range expectation, just for simplicity sake in discussion. I do expect variance from these numbers, the upside and downside of that would be 610-670 passing attempts (after sacks).

For the running game this would be 460-510 total rushing attempts. I wonder from David's comments if he thinks the Patriots will run the ball more than this? Thus impacting the total passing attempts somewhat.

One thing I have noticed with Brady is a significant drop om his completion percentage.

In 2013 Tom Brady had a 60.5% completion rate. The lowest completion percentage since 2003 when he had 60.2%

I also note that this was when Brady was 36 years old.

I think the supporting cast last season certainly contributed to this decline. It is also possible that being age 36 has something to do with it though. 35 is an age for QB when most see a statistical decline in efficiency of their performance. At the same time we are in a new era as far as rules supporting the passing game and Quartbacks, the really good ones, do age like fine wine.

Just something I am keeping my eye on with Brady as he has passed this historical landmark.

When do QBs decline in efficiency?

That is a study I would like to revisit in some depth as I have not really looked into it for several years now.
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RE: Completion %

Brady suffered from a complete reshuffling of personnel and not being on the same page with his receivers to start the season. By the end of the year, he was throwing to street free agents, which also didn't help. Additionally, the OL played poorly in terms of pass protection. Mankins allowed the most sacks out of any OLman over the second half of last season (which partly explains why he is elsewhere). Brady does not do well when he hears footsteps, and if his game has deteriorated, it's his lack of ability to do well under defensive pressure. He also is not as accurate on his deeper throws, but overall I don't think his skills have fallen off much.

RE: Play Distribution

I really do think the Pats have learned their lesson that just running up the score and risking injuries is not the best plan when you have a 37 year old QB. I see the team's actual passing attempts falling from 628 to 550-575. I also see their rushing attempts increasing from 470 to 500-525. Last year, they played a ton of games that they were either way behind, behind, or in dogfights in the second half. Given all the injuries on both sides of the ball, they did what they had to do to win . . . pass, pass, and pass some more late in games. So yes, I think they could be Top 3-5 in rushing attempts.

I see the Pats defense being DRAMATICALLY better. As in Pats up 17-3 at halftime pretty frequently, adding another TD and a couple FGs in the second half and giving up a late garbage time TD for them to win 30-13. That is a situation they did not find themselves in much last year (they had 12 games decided by 10 points or less). This year, they face some really good offenses all in a row in mid season, but their early and late schedule seems a lot softer on the defense. They get CHI-DEN-IND-DET-GB all in a row. Brady might have to ratchet things up in that stretch, so if he were to have weeks with 40-50 passing attempts, that would be the timeframe.

A lot will depend on how well they run the ball. I would guess that they will opt to run out of passing sets if that's what opponents give them. I also think they will try to have more sustained drives and keep the defense off the field, so they may elect to burn clock instead of rushing to run plays. More of a hurray up in the first half, more of a take your time approach in the second half. But the Pats have shown if they are in close games and don't do well running the football, they will abandon the run.

So I could be wrong in that the running game may not be effective. Or the defense really isn't that good. Or that they still will try to light up the scoreboard. But that would be the three ways I see them ending up passing more.

 
I agree that the defense is vastly improved with the new acquisitions and healthy. I also agree that the combination of an improved defense and pass game will set up the run game. I'm prepared to eat crow, but I think we will see a less but more effective run game. You can usually pencil in the NE RBs for a good 15-20 TDs on the ground, but I think their short game is so much more improved this year with Edelman improving, Amendola healthy, Devilin and Vereen creating backfield missmatches, Gronk and Wright creating over the middle missmatches. I just think the Pats are gonna be so much more efficient in the redzone through the air that we all but remove Ridley/White from the game inside the 20s.

 
The other thing I hope we see more out of NE this year is what they did in their title years that they have not been able to do much since. "Back in the day" the defense would get a must have stop or turnover late in games with the Pats up a single score. Then the offense would go on an extended scoring drive that would milk 8, 9, 10 minutes off the clock. They regularly got a FG to go up by 9 or 10 (or a TD to go up by double digits). Maybe they would give up a late TD to make the final score look like the game was in question, but in reality the game was over a lot earlier.

Lately, if they were even ahead late, they would be up by 3, a drive would stall, and they would tack on a FG to go up 6. But then the DEFENSE would be on the field at the end of games instead and a TD would lose the game.

If they can play more like the former and avoid much of the latter, they should win a lot of games.

 
Ok so Brady misses practice today with a calf injury, but is expected to play on Sunday. Anyone have any other info on this? Severity?

 
Just saw the same thing on Rotoworld. Word is it is minor and he'll be a go on Sunday, but with my other qb being Wilson tonight, would like some more concrete info if possible. Any homers?

 
I've been listening to all the Boston sports radio shows since the story broke. Just a lot of speculation, and worry. Obviously not good to miss the Thursday practice before the season opener, especially with new guys on the O-Line and a new Backp TE. Felger just had an interesting observation. Why hasn't someone like Shefter tweeted yet that this is nothing to worry about?

It's just a reminder of how old he and Peyton are. Enjoy every second ou see them play this year. Their days are winding down quickly.

 
Anarchy99 said:
The other thing I hope we see more out of NE this year is what they did in their title years that they have not been able to do much since. "Back in the day" the defense would get a must have stop or turnover late in games with the Pats up a single score. Then the offense would go on an extended scoring drive that would milk 8, 9, 10 minutes off the clock. They regularly got a FG to go up by 9 or 10 (or a TD to go up by double digits). Maybe they would give up a late TD to make the final score look like the game was in question, but in reality the game was over a lot earlier.

Lately, if they were even ahead late, they would be up by 3, a drive would stall, and they would tack on a FG to go up 6. But then the DEFENSE would be on the field at the end of games instead and a TD would lose the game.

If they can play more like the former and avoid much of the latter, they should win a lot of games.
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The Patriots had something like 10 drives last year that started with them having the ball on offense down by 1 score or less with less than 5 minutes to go. The difference in last year was that their offense only converted two of them. Not that their offense wasn't on the field.

And drive stalls with a small lead are nothing new to the Patriots. In both of their Super Bowl losses they had the ball at midfield, with the lead, late and failed to ice it.

 
False Start said:
Its the Patriots, amazing after all these years people still have not learned.
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This is actually my first year owning Brady, and I've invested A LOT in the NE offense (Brady, vereen, gronk). So when I see Brady on the injury report with no practice on Thursday before week 1 I get concerned.

I sure hope this is just belicheck bs.

 
General Tso said:
I've been listening to all the Boston sports radio shows since the story broke. Just a lot of speculation, and worry. Obviously not good to miss the Thursday practice before the season opener, especially with new guys on the O-Line and a new Backp TE. Felger just had an interesting observation. Why hasn't someone like Shefter tweeted yet that this is nothing to worry about?

It's just a reminder of how old he and Peyton are. Enjoy every second ou see them play this year. Their days are winding down quickly.
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Tim Reynolds - Associated Press, Sportswriter
Tom Brady was limited in Patriots practice today with a calf injury. I list his chances of playing vs Dolphins on Sunday at 137 percent.
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Mike Reiss - ESPNBoston.com, Patriots Beat Reporter
Brady was not on initial injury report. We'll see if that changes today. Regardless, source says he will be ready Sunday, as 1 would expect.
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Mike Petraglia, WEEI.com, Sports Reporter
#Patriots announce Tom Brady missed practice with calf injury. Brady still expected to start Sunday in season opener.
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Ian R. Rapoport, NFL Network, Sports Reporter
For #Patriots QB Tom Brady, obviously not the first time he’s dealt with a calf #seewhatIdidthere #NeverForget t.co/We6iogBUIs
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felger is a ####### idiot, btw

although, this is the kind of injury that could keep him limited in practice and probable all year

 
Rotoworld:

The Boston Globe reports the Pats are simply being cautious with Tom Brady's calf injury, and that it's not a "serious situation."

As you were. Not even the secretive Pats would be able to keep a serious Brady injury under wraps. Brady's status will be worth double-checking on Friday, but you can start him as you normally would in fantasy leagues. He's Rotoworld's No. 9 quarterback for Week 1.
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Also, that radio producer is willing to do anything for followers I bet.

 
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Jerry Curl said:
Saw this thought on twitter and it makes sense and is a sad realization.

If Brady doesn't get it done statistically today against the #Raiders it is safe bet that he is no longer fantasy relevant. #fantasyfootball
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So what happens if the Pats D forces turnovers, they run the ball at will, and they are up big in the second half and run out the clock against OAK? Would that make Brady irrelevant because the Pats beat up on a mediocre team?

 
Anarchy99 said:
Jerry Curl said:
Saw this thought on twitter and it makes sense and is a sad realization.

If Brady doesn't get it done statistically today against the #Raiders it is safe bet that he is no longer fantasy relevant. #fantasyfootball
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So what happens if the Pats D forces turnovers, they run the ball at will, and they are up big in the second half and run out the clock against OAK? Would that make Brady irrelevant because the Pats beat up on a mediocre team?
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Yep I feel the same way. The same scenario happened last week and I'm afraid could also happen today. So I'm going to have to sit him but I feel (hope) he will be fantasy relevant as the year progresses.

 
Thought it was common knowledge that he shifted down to average as of last season. Guess some people are a little slow to catch on,

 
Anarchy99 said:
Jerry Curl said:
Saw this thought on twitter and it makes sense and is a sad realization.

If Brady doesn't get it done statistically today against the #Raiders it is safe bet that he is no longer fantasy relevant. #fantasyfootball
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So what happens if the Pats D forces turnovers, they run the ball at will, and they are up big in the second half and run out the clock against OAK? Would that make Brady irrelevant because the Pats beat up on a mediocre team?
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In the fantasy football world as it was stated in the tweet? I would think so. He is not really good right now and if his name was not Tom Brady he would not be rostered in most leagues.

 
Do we need one of these threads every year? The answer last year was "no." The answer this year is "no." The answer next year will be "no."

He's 32nd in PPG, behind McCown Hoyer Fitz Henne... even his Rookie QB opponent for today Carr.

You don't get points for a name. Brady can still be a winning NFL QB, but his days as a fantasy asset are simply over.

 
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