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Three Reasons Why the Pats Offense is Overrated (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I have always thought that Matt Light was one of the most underrated players in the NFL. It going to be interesting to watch the Pats without him.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
They have played zero real games so far. The preseason means nothing. On the few times they did play their starting offense, besides the fact that they were using a middle school playbook, they have not had everyone in at the same time.
The only issue has been the Pats have several OLmen coming back from injuries that just need to get back in game shape and used to playing with each other again.
When Brady goes off the first few games, then all the naysayers will keep quiet.
The only issue has been the Pats have several OLmen coming back from injuries that just need to get back in game shape and used to playing with each other again.
When Brady goes off the first few games, then all the naysayers will keep quiet.
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duaneok66
Footballguy
thank you. This is better than the last post which was deleted. You have valid points, and I think people are "buying high".A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line) not likely to line up perfectly as it did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Not too many naysayers with the exorbitant ADPs.Do you give any credence to the idea that defenses will be better prepared for the Pats this year?
LHUCKS
Footballguy
They had never done what they did last year.I'm not saying the wheels are going to fall off, I'm saying they are overvalued.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
No way Lloyd, Welker, Hernandez, and Gronk all live up to their ADPs unless Tom Brady is far and away the #1 overall player this year. But overall, the Pats offense will be just fine.
DawnBTVS
Footballguy
Regression to the mean is a valid argument but part of the issue is predicated on what "last year" produced. The variables are simply too much ('new' OC, different RB stable, arguably a different WR stable, even an altered OL group) to determine how much of a regression happens and even what the mean may end up as. Is the mean league average? A 3 year average of Brady's stats? A 5 year average? An average of McDaniel's 3 years as OC?I don't know if I'd necessarily call it a perfect storm last year. Maybe in terms of a reliance on the passing game to keep up/win games but that offense has been riding Brady's arm since 2005 really. Granted, they probably won't throw it 60% of the play calls over the course of a season like last year but they do generally end up in the 54-57% range leaning towards the pass. Also keep in mind that McDaniels loves the use of screens so that will skew things a bit in terms of being 'designed' run plays done through the air.I'm not sold on defenses adjusting until it happens. This type of argument comes up often and usually gets proven 4-5 years later if that. More often than not, it's teams moving away from said scheme offensively that nullifies it more than anything (see the R&S in the early 90's dwindling to just Atlanta by 1994 or the Wildcat being used improperly by teams jumping on the bandwagon). Belichick is one of the best at altering calls and schemes during the actual games on Sundays so I wouldn't put too much weight on any arguments about defenses adjusting. If anything, Belichick has looked ahead if that scenario occurs by bringing in guys like Brandon Lloyd and turning towards RBs who can hit the hole quicker and have the ability to get big plays on the ground.A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line) not likely to line up perfectly as it did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.
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What experts do you speak of???Dodds, MT, Henry, and Wood all have the passing game about 10% off last years numbers. Are you saying the passing attack will be below 4400 yards?Given the talent in NE maybe they will progress to their capabilities?I somewhat agree with point two, however the scoreboard has never impacted the pressure to the gas pedal.Defenses can adjust to last year, this year you have Lloyd and Gaffney giving a whole new wrinkle.A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line) not likely to line up perfectly as it did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.
Year 2007 down?
I don't think it matters right now.The Patriots, when healthy, have too many weapons for the defense to stop them all. Belichick will game plan to go where the defense is not.
✔ Quick Slants to Welker
✔ Deep ball to Lloyd
✔ Intermediate route to Hernandez
✔ Across the Middle/down the seam to Gronkowski
✔ WR screen to Welker/Lloyd with Gronk and Hernandez blocking
✔ RB screens
If Defenses try to play the short and intermediate routes, I am sure you will start to see Hernandez and Gronk go deeper to spread the defense out.
Lord Fantasy
Footballguy
Let's say they're overrated. The question then is how much. If you think they're no longer a top-10 offense, then we have a serious problem.
But if they're merely a top-5 offense (with games where they produce like the #1 offense) then I'm still buying.
As for performing at or above (or below) their ADP, who cares? IMHO we die-hard fantasy types go overboard on the whole idea of value. Both good value players and bad value players can contribute to your team. As long as you're putting up points does it matter where the person was drafted?
But if they're merely a top-5 offense (with games where they produce like the #1 offense) then I'm still buying.
As for performing at or above (or below) their ADP, who cares? IMHO we die-hard fantasy types go overboard on the whole idea of value. Both good value players and bad value players can contribute to your team. As long as you're putting up points does it matter where the person was drafted?
bostonfred
Footballguy
Why would regression to the mean apply to the patriots, and not the four other teams who threw for 5000 yards? Or the many others who unexpectedly broke 4000? Last year was an unusual year, but if most of these teams regress, then it only matters whether brady maintains his value amongst his peers at the qb position.
Compare him to brees, who loses meachem and payton, while brady adds lloyd and mcdaniels.
Or to newton, who had an unusual number of rush tds as he chased a record, had a #1 receiver who put up an unexpectedly strong season but died down towards the end and is already on crutches.
Or to stafford, who had a great year when both he and calvin were finally able to stay healthy, but has already hurt his hand.
Or to romo, who has witten with a spleen injury, dez bryant in so much trouble the team wont let him drink, go to nudie bars or stay out past midnight. Or austin who is as always nicked up. Add to that that he lost laurent robinson in the offseason.
Maybe you prefer the preseason draft darling, matt ryan, who has never put up numbers worthy of his current draft position. When fbg staff members are taking ryan in the first round (even if its just wimer, who is by far the one whose opinion I respect least), the value of brady six picks earlier has to look good by comparison. Even in the third, ryan is a terrible value, imo. He could easily simultaneously have a career year and still fail to be worth a third round pick.
Or peyton manning with the neck surgeries, who seems to have lost something off his fastball and ability to look side to side across the field, and is working with new receivers on a new team that is trying to adapt to his system, not the other way around.
There are warts on all of these guys, but brady, who set the td record in 2007 and the int record in 2010, is coming off a season when he broke marinos long standing yardage record, plus he added lloyd in the offseason. Could offensive line issues derail the team? I guess so. But the patriots run more 2te sets than most teams, are highly capable of using screen passes, and have a number of receivers, tight ends and running backs who excel in the quick short passing game that compensates for line issues.
If I were going to pick the one overrated patriot, it would be gronkowski. He's being drafted rounds earlier than hernandez, when there's some debate whether he is even the best te option on his own team. Hernandez could be criminally underrated, especially with reports that he has emerged as bradys favorite target this summer. Welker is coming off a season where he was the #2 ff wr, by a good amount, and is getting drafted as a borderline wr1 or wr2 even. He could regress substantially and still exceed his draft spot. Lloyd is a question mark, but at his late adp seems like a nice upside play. And ridley is getting drafted with a huge discount compared to his performance this weekend. He's well worth the gamble unless his adp skyrockets the next couple weeks.
Compare him to brees, who loses meachem and payton, while brady adds lloyd and mcdaniels.
Or to newton, who had an unusual number of rush tds as he chased a record, had a #1 receiver who put up an unexpectedly strong season but died down towards the end and is already on crutches.
Or to stafford, who had a great year when both he and calvin were finally able to stay healthy, but has already hurt his hand.
Or to romo, who has witten with a spleen injury, dez bryant in so much trouble the team wont let him drink, go to nudie bars or stay out past midnight. Or austin who is as always nicked up. Add to that that he lost laurent robinson in the offseason.
Maybe you prefer the preseason draft darling, matt ryan, who has never put up numbers worthy of his current draft position. When fbg staff members are taking ryan in the first round (even if its just wimer, who is by far the one whose opinion I respect least), the value of brady six picks earlier has to look good by comparison. Even in the third, ryan is a terrible value, imo. He could easily simultaneously have a career year and still fail to be worth a third round pick.
Or peyton manning with the neck surgeries, who seems to have lost something off his fastball and ability to look side to side across the field, and is working with new receivers on a new team that is trying to adapt to his system, not the other way around.
There are warts on all of these guys, but brady, who set the td record in 2007 and the int record in 2010, is coming off a season when he broke marinos long standing yardage record, plus he added lloyd in the offseason. Could offensive line issues derail the team? I guess so. But the patriots run more 2te sets than most teams, are highly capable of using screen passes, and have a number of receivers, tight ends and running backs who excel in the quick short passing game that compensates for line issues.
If I were going to pick the one overrated patriot, it would be gronkowski. He's being drafted rounds earlier than hernandez, when there's some debate whether he is even the best te option on his own team. Hernandez could be criminally underrated, especially with reports that he has emerged as bradys favorite target this summer. Welker is coming off a season where he was the #2 ff wr, by a good amount, and is getting drafted as a borderline wr1 or wr2 even. He could regress substantially and still exceed his draft spot. Lloyd is a question mark, but at his late adp seems like a nice upside play. And ridley is getting drafted with a huge discount compared to his performance this weekend. He's well worth the gamble unless his adp skyrockets the next couple weeks.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
The fact is, they haven't played a game that counted. So sure, get on your soap box and wave your flags for the pending apocalypse.Just to clarify, no matter what happens in the preseason, good or bad, I would still say the preseason games don't matter. So the Pats offense will be the same in the regular season even if they throw 20 INTs in the preseason or 80 TD in the preseason.But since you brought it up, it the his last 3 seasons where Brady was healthy (2007, 2010, 2011), he accounted for 52, 37, and 42 TD. He threw for more yardage, but that was really the only thing out of the ordinary. But lots of guys threw for more yards, so it's not like his season was so out of bounds for QBs last season.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I call shennanigans on the favorite target part. That was based one half of football when Welker wasn't even playing. That was also based on Greg Bedard's comments . . . who was a Packers beat writer and has not covered the Pats.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Good point...nice job fellas.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
To be clear, this is not based on the preseason. This is based on a new distinct set of circumstances.
hoochiemama
Footballguy
Living in New England I have seen all the kool aid drinkers and the "Belichik is god/ in Bill we trust" diatribe over the years. But this year I think the O line is a huge problem. In all preseason games Brady is getting hit from up the middle. Normally the only teams that can do it have special front fives. Brady can always pick a blitz apart but he has problems with a straight hard rush up the middle ( every stand up pocket passer does) This preseason it seems like he is getting no time and has to reset his feet. I don't like what I am seeing with the O line.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Nice to see an unbiased viewpoint checking in.
bostonfred
Footballguy
That seems fair. But there were other reports earlier in the offseason about hernandez, back when everyone was focused on the lloyd hype. I think the pats mostly used that first half to see what ridley could do, and I don't take a lot from it except that ridley looked like he can do a little bit of everything. But hernandez did look pretty good.
I have a better explanation. You didn't get to draft any Patriots, you lost your league last year because of the Patroits, and you are heavily medicated.
Seriously this has been one of the best offenses in the NFL since 2007, even when their starting quarterback went down. Drugs are bad MKay
Seriously this has been one of the best offenses in the NFL since 2007, even when their starting quarterback went down. Drugs are bad MKay
Furious Styles
Footballguy
They will be running a lot more 3 TE sets this year, brand new OC and deep threat makes it tough to say defenses will adjust when they will be noticeably different this year than last.
LargeMouthBass
Footballguy
Ummm... Didn't they do the same thing two years ago?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
A) Can be said about any top performing player/unit, so meh.B) I think the OL is a fair point but I'm curious why you think the running game will be stronger(with an OL you are calling suspect) and why you think the defense will be appreciably better? The RB's don't look stronger to me and the DB's still seem suspect. Didn't they actually lose their best pass rushers from last year?C) TE is a tough position to defend, but more than that Hernandez doesn't just line up at TE. He can line up in the backfield, he can line up out wide. Even if some defenses "solve" defending two TE's Hernandez is versatile enough to line up somewhere else. No matter how you slice and dice it the defense needs to defend Gronk, Welker, Hernandez and Lloyd all at the same time. You can't bracket cover everyone. Also, the big three(Gronk/Hernandez/Welker) are all capable of doing damage within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and running after the catch which could mask some of their OL problems imo. I realize there are plenty of Patriot fans on the board and I'm no expert on the Patriots but it has always seemed to me that their OL has performed as a unit above the talent level of each individual player. Other than the OL being slightly worse I just don't see many substantiated reasons NE is going to slowed down on offense.A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line.) All of those factors are not likely to line up perfectly as they did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.
Rick James
Footballguy
How do you "solve" Rob Gronkowski in the redzone? Explain that one.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
I liked your overvalued/undervalued threads but this one is totally without meritA) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line.) All of those factors are not likely to line up perfectly as they did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.
cobalt_27
Footballguy
I don't see how this is breaking any new ground. Most people have already said as much, but...welcome late to the party.
The question is by how much will they collectively be off 2011 numbers. I expect Brady falls off about 15% and Gronk about 25% in terms of fantasy production. Still really potent weapons, but a big drop.
The question is by how much will they collectively be off 2011 numbers. I expect Brady falls off about 15% and Gronk about 25% in terms of fantasy production. Still really potent weapons, but a big drop.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Funny you should say that, I would bet the farm on the Pat/Saints/Lions passing yards UNDER from 2010 numbers.A) Can be said about any top performing player/unit, so meh.A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line.) All of those factors are not likely to line up perfectly as they did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
LINK?
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Sums it up for me. Don't see 4 1k receivers but I'm buying Brady for 5k upside.
2011- 513 points, 6848 yards (3rd and 2nd, respectively)2010- 518 points, 5820 yards (1st and 8th)2009- 427 points, 6327 yards (6th and 3rd)2008- 410 points, 5847 yards (8th and 3rd - with Cassel under center)2007- 589 points, 6580 yards (1st and 1st)It's true that the 6848 yards was a high-water mark for the franchise, but it was their third time in the last five years over 6300. The 513 points they scored actually represented just their third best total from the last 5 years. Their average over that 5-year span was 6284 yards and 491 points. Throw the Cassel season out of the mix and their average jumps to 6394 yards and 512 points. What they did last year was hardly unprecedented for them- in fact, they've got a far better track record of production than anyone else in the league. Even the Saints can't match it- New Orleans has been throwing up ridiculous yardage totals, but its offense has never really produced points like New England's has over the last 5 years.
In LHUCKS's world, disagreeing with him is proof of bias, and agreeing with him is proof of the absence of bias. I'd say he's biased towards thinking anyone who agrees with him is unbiased, but he agrees with himself, so clearly he cannot possibly be biased, thanks to the "anyone who agrees with LHUCKS is unbiased" rule.Nice to see an unbiased viewpoint checking in.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
The O-Line is in turmoil right now, but will likely stabilize to be above average to good before it is all said and done.
Brandon Loyd is being overhyped and over drafted; don't get me wrong, i think he is an awesome addition to the team in nfl terms, but I think he is being drafted too early and more likely than not he will dissapoint FF owners.
I do like Hernandez and barring inj he will be huge and a better value pick than gronk going much earlier (ftr, I like graham #1). Food for thought, if solder is not up to snuff & vollmer not healthy, they may need gronk to block more.......
Schedule appears a little easier, D looks improved, O-line not as good, more weapons.......Predicting a slight dropoff is not unresaonable. I think it hinges on the o-line; if they solidify, Brady will have another monster year and loyd will probably produce a little better than I am predicting. I think the o-line will be ok, but likely not quite as good as it has been in the past (at least not early).
I like ridley & hernandez where u can get them; I don't like gronk & loyd where they are going.
Shutout
Footballguy
A) I'm not sure the "mean" is relevant because the mean for the Pats likely will move upwards with the addition of Lloyd, and a very much improved rund defense (which is perfect in their division).B) I can't comment. Not sure what is meant.C) Saying it is a LOT different than actually doing it. How exaclty does a team "adjust" to the mismatch that is Gronk or multiple weapins used in a way that you are forced to defend every blade of grass on the field? I mean, it sounds legit, but how do teams "adjust" Calvin, brees, Gronk, Brady, Peterson, Rodgers, etc? Sometimes they don't. Plus, the Pats are a team that kinda invites you to "adjust". They give you a whole year stuffing a system down your throat ad naseum. Then teams spend all off-season planning for it and then the Pats come back and show you something totally different. Run it to detah. Then Bomb you with Moss. Then quick slants. Then TEs..I think they throw darts and then send out a memo. "This year is a running year guys!"A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line.) All of those factors are not likely to line up perfectly as they did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.
fightingillini
Footballguy
Agree. At least one of the WR/TE will be a bust. The question is which one? I would think in terms of probability of bust, Welker is the highest, followed by Gronkowski, Lloyd and Hernandez, but Lloyd's ADP is climbing to a point where he may be more risky than Gronkowski at his ADP.Brady will be the only one who is almost a lock for production that justifies his ADP. I can't see him going under 4600-37-14. I have him for 5000-40-12, with a couple of rushing TDs. I don't see how anyone is going to stop them. Now the OL is a concern, but the Pats will figure that out.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
The last 3 fully healthy seasons Brady for 52, 37, and 42 TD. I guess I am missing why this year would be the lowest TD total since he had top flight receiving options and was healthy. He has the best collective set of receivers he's ever had, and I don't even think that part is really open for debate. I am not going to revisit stuff we discussed at length in other threads all over again, but coupled with the pourous defense, the unproven ground game, the addition of McDaniels (who was OC in 2007), the addition of the deep ball AND RB screens . . . and I think Brady's numbers will rival 2007 and 2011.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I think that's a good point. My arguments for decreased TDs.A) Better RBs/more rushing TDsB) I throw out the Randy Moss yearsC) Defenses adapt to 2 TE setsD) Brady is oldE) OL likely to be less effectivecollectively these factors make me think we'll see a down year in passing TD production.
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Consensus fbg projections4700 and 37You're talking 6% higher on the yardage and 3% higher on the TDs. I don't consider that "overrated" territory, more along the lines of margin of error.Basically this would be like saying Foster is overrated at 2000 and 15 when you project him at 1880 and 14.5.'LHUCKS said:
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Brady's ADP is #5 overall. I'm not comparing him to FBG projections. "Value" is essentially determined by ADP.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
A) pure speculation on your part. We have nothing to stake a claim that this group is better, and we CERTAINLY have nothing to show that they are going to get in the end zone more. We also have nothing to go on that suggests they are going to run more often either.B) you mean the Randy Moss year. He had very little to do with 2010 and nothing at all to do with 2011.C) not sure what this has to do with anything. The Pats rarely ran 2 TE sets. They used Hernandez as a WR like 3/4 of the time last year. But let's say they did have 2 down TE sets. That's why they added Lloyd, Gaffney, Stallworth, the deep ball, and RB screens . . . just in case the league somehow shuts down Hernandez and Gronk (cause, you know, the NFL has done such a good doing that so far).D) So Brady went from the year he had last year . . . to just plain old? Brees will be 34 during the season this year . . . so HE MUST start taking a hit on his production next year when he turns 35, right?E) I don't get this one either. The Pats have never had an OL filled with blue chippers. By the time the sesaon starts, the only change will be Light retiring, and he was starting to loook long in the tooth. The real issue right now is Mankins, Koppen, and Vollmer are all out of shape, coming back from injuries, and haven't practiced in months. That's it. I would be really surprised if Waters doesn't show up next week. All they need is some sea legs and a little practice and I see no reason why the OL won't be any different than last year. If your assertion is they are hurt, won't get better, or will get reinjured, obviously any OL would be a concern if the starting OL never got on the field.'LHUCKS said:
fightingillini
Footballguy
A) You seriously think Ridley/Vereen are that good? They're unproven.B) why? Sure Moss is the best WR Brady has had, but this is the best collection of WRs/TEs Brady has ever had.C) How? You think Gronkowski or Hernandez will be covered by a nickel corner? If they overadpt, look for Lloyd to have a career year and Welker to catch another 110 or so passes. The key about the 2TE sets are that you can't figure out if they will run or pass. Remember that NE has two elite TEs, a WR that is a tailor fit in Welker, and now they add a good deep ball WR in Lloyd. You can't effectively cover it all.D) Who cares? Has Brady shown any signs of deterioration of skill? Not that I have seen.E) Now this is the key concern.I respect your opinion LHUCKS, but these factors are either irrelevant or you're cherry-picking to back up your point. BTW, 4400 and 36 is pretty good numbers, to me it's Brady's floor. His ceiling is record breaking numbers.'LHUCKS said:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Let's make a gentleman's bet. I will take Brady as the #5 pick overall. I will give you the field . . . THE ENTIRE NFL (excluding Foster, McCoy, Rice, and Rodgers . . . the 4 guys getting picked in front of Brady). The bet is who has a higher VBD score on the season. Brady (for me) vs. the rest of the NFL less those 4 guys (for you).
Putting your money where your mouth is! I respect that.
